房地产开发 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.10.21 房地产行业周报（2024 年第 42 周） 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -31% -20% -9% 1% 12% 23% 房地产开发 沪深300 分析师 欧阳之光 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070001 oyzg@ctsec.com 分析师 吴梦茹 SAC 证书编号：S0160524060001 wumr@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 41 周）》 2024-10-13 2. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 38 周）》 2024-09-24 3. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 37 周）》 2024-09-20 打出政策"组合拳"，重启城改货币化安置 证券研究报告 核心观点 ❖ 本周板块回顾：本周申万房地产指数上涨 2.96%，沪深 300 指数较上周上涨 0.98%，板块跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.98pct，在 31 个板块中排第 10 位。 ❖ 行业数据回顾：本周 30 大中城市商品房成交面积 267 万平米，环比+130.7%， 同比+4.5%。细分城市能级来看，30 ...

轻工制造 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.10.20 9 月家具社零增速转正，组合拳助力地产止跌回稳 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -29% -19% -9% 1% 11% 21% 轻工制造 沪深300 分析师 吕明璋 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030001 lvmz@ctsec.com 联系人 何栋 hedong@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《9 月家具社零同比+0.4%，增速由负 转正》 2024-10-18 2. 《家具销售增长明显，政策效应有望 持续释放》 2024-10-13 3. 《促消费政策效果显现，关注相关家 居转债》 2024-10-13 核心观点 轻工行业周报 证券研究报告 本周行情回顾：本周（2024.10.14-2024.10.18）申万轻工指数收报 1850.36 点， 周涨跌幅为+0.82%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.16pct，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名 第 21。本周轻工制造细分板块涨跌分化，文娱用品/家居用品/包装印刷/造纸 分别+1.98%/+1.75%/+1.23%/-1.58%。 政策组合拳出台，推动房地产市场止跌回稳。10 ...

单击或点击此处输入文字。 建筑材料 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.10.20 建材行业策略周报 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -32% -21% -11% 0% 11% 21% 建筑材料 沪深300 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《建材行业 3Q2024 业绩前瞻》 2024-10-15 2. 《建材行业策略周报》 2024-10-07 3. 《长三角推涨决心高，政策宽松下 水泥或迎修复》 2024-09-27 政策叠加信心修复，看好产业链价值重估 核心观点 ❖ 消费建材："两个增加"落地，看好以消费建材为核心的地产链反 弹。短期看，在政策积极落地的基础上，后续地产看盘和成交情况有望迎来 边际改善；中长期看，随着各地持续落实和各类政策的效应释放，消费者信 心有望恢复，地产有望逐步回稳后向好发展。目前，政治局会议定调地产止 跌，政策加码下，政府收储、国企收旧换新等新模式才刚刚开始，未来随着 各城市推广以及配套资金落实，预计将对去化库存、稳定市场起到积极作 用，将有利于加快房地产市场企稳。预期先行 ...

计算机 / 行业专题报告 / 2024.10.20 Meta Movie Gen 的论文告诉我们什么？ 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -34% -23% -12% -1% 10% 20% 计算机 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 杨烨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 分析师 李宇轩 SAC 证书编号：S0160524080001 liyx02@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《智驾月报：补贴政策见效，网联化 推进》 2024-10-17 2. 《十大不容忽视的数据要素新政细 节》 2024-10-16 3. 《特斯拉发布 Cybercab，预期三年内 量产》 2024-10-13 核心观点 证券研究报告 Movie Gen：音视频两手抓，模型效果亮眼。2024 年 10 月 4 日，Meta 团 队发布论文《Movie Gen: A Cast of Media Foundation Models》，介绍了一系列 基础模型 Movie Gen，该模型在文本到视频合成、视频个性化、视频编辑、视 频到音频生成等多个任务上取得了显著成果，标志着 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the construction industry, particularly for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private companies, as they are expected to benefit from debt resolution policies and improved balance sheets [1][10] Core Views - The construction industry is entering a high-quality development phase, with SOEs focusing more on operational efficiency and payment quality rather than merely expanding revenue [1] - The Ministry of Finance's proposed large-scale debt limit increase to resolve local government implicit debt is expected to significantly improve the balance sheets of construction companies, especially SOEs and private enterprises [1][10] - Small and medium-sized private enterprises are likely to benefit first from the debt resolution actions, particularly in sectors like landscaping, public building decoration, and design [1] Sector-Specific Analysis Landscaping Sector - Landscaping companies have shown the most significant benefits from the 2023 debt resolution efforts, with some companies like **Mongolian Grassland Ecology** reducing receivables by 6.5 billion yuan and increasing operating cash flow by 1.35 billion yuan [3][4] - Companies like **Oriental Landscape** and **Mongolian Grassland Ecology** have seen improvements in receivables and cash flow, with some reductions attributed to bad debt provisions and active settlement efforts [3][4] Public Building Decoration and Design Sector - In the public building decoration sector, companies like **Zhongzhuang Construction** have improved their cash flow and receivables, likely due to increased debt collection efforts [6] - In the infrastructure design sector, companies like **Kanshe Co Ltd** have seen a reduction in receivables by 470 million yuan and an increase in operating cash flow by 220 million yuan, benefiting from local government debt resolution efforts [7] Infrastructure and Real Estate SOEs - Infrastructure and real estate SOEs, such as **China State Construction** and **China Railway Group**, have not shown significant improvements in receivables or cash flow, likely due to ongoing business expansion and increased payments to suppliers [10] - However, some private companies in this sector, like **Longyuan Construction**, have seen improvements, with receivables decreasing by 8.64 billion yuan and operating cash flow increasing by 830 million yuan [10] Key Companies and Financial Metrics - **China State Construction**: Total assets of 31,980 billion yuan, receivables of 20,963.1 billion yuan, and a PB ratio of 0.61 [12] - **China Railway Group**: Total assets of 20,045.7 billion yuan, receivables of 10,764.2 billion yuan, and a PB ratio of 0.58 [12] - **Mongolian Grassland Ecology**: Total assets of 154.8 billion yuan, receivables of 100.9 billion yuan, and a PB ratio of 1.97 [12] Conclusion - The construction industry is expected to see a turning point in balance sheet repair, with SOEs and private companies benefiting from debt resolution policies and improved operational efficiency [1][10]

| --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|-------|--------------| | | | | | | | 证券研究报告 | | | | | | 乘用车销售显著回升 | | | | 实体经济图谱 2024 年 第 3 8 期 | | | | | | | | 分析师：陈兴 博士 | | | | 财通宏观首席分析师 S0160523030002 | | | | 分析师：马骏 博士 S0160523080004 | | | | 联系人：陈莹 | | | 1 2024年10月19日 各行业量价速览 • 十月以来，实物消费愈加火热，拉动工业生产加速修复。自9月底新一轮地产政策出炉，叠加一线城市调控再放松， 房地产销量呈现边际回暖，特别是一线城市销售火爆。期待后续地产收储以及城中村改造等需求端措施落地显效， 推动地产价格见底企稳。受益于报废更新和以旧换新政策持续落实，10月前13天乘用车零售销量增速大幅上升至 20%。实物消费拉动生产回升，半钢胎开工率续创历史新高且仍在上行，样本钢厂钢铁产量增速大幅改善，水泥和 玻璃行业库存也有明显去 ...

电子 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.10.20 电子板块表现亮眼，重视 AI 技术创新主线 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -25% -15% -6% 4% 14% 24% 电子 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 张益敏 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070002 zhangym02@ctsec.com 分析师 王矗 SAC 证书编号：S0160524090001 wangchu01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《智能眼镜行业深度》 2024-09-28 2. 《行业维持景气向上，AI 赋能升级迭 代》 2024-09-27 3. 《电子行业周报：继续重视 AI 算力 ❖ 风险提示：需求不及预期、行业竞争加剧、地缘政治风险。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------------------------------------|-----------------------|--------------- ...

商贸零售 / 行业点评报告 / 2024.10.18 可选消费改善，政策效应显现 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -29% -20% -10% -1% 8% 18% 商贸零售 沪深300 分析师 于健 SAC 证书编号：S0160522060001 yujian@ctsec.com 联系人 王瑾瑜 wangjy03@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《关注国内高景气赛道，推荐降息受 益出海标的》 2024-09-29 2. 《降息周期开启，关注美国地产链相 关出海标的》 2024-09-28 3. 《8 月社零同比+2.1%，必选优于可 选》 2024-09-14 ❖ 风险提示：宏观经济恢复不及预期；消费信心恢复不及预期；竞争加剧。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|---------------------------|-----------------------|----------------------|-------|-------------- ...

江淮汽车(600418) / 商用车 / 公司点评 / 2024.10.18 业绩预告同比高增长，开放合作多点开花 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | | | | 基本数据 | 2024-10-17 | | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 30.45 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 21.84 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 6.17 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 21.84 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | ❖ 事件：公司于 2024 年 10 月 16 日发布 2024 年前三季度业绩预增公告，公司 预计 2024 年前三季度实现归母净利润 62000 万元，同比增长 237.08%。据公 告测算，公司预计 3Q2024 归母净利润同比增长 1010.6%，环比增长 63.4%。 ❖ 3Q24 业绩保持高增长势头：公司预计业绩增加的主要原因是公司持续优化 产品结构和债务结构，积极开拓海内外市场，实现汇兑收益增加和财务费用减 少。自 2023 年第四季度以来，公司财务费用大幅 ...

Investment Rating - Maintained "Overweight" rating [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 11.45 billion yuan, up 21.98% YoY, and net profit of 1.081 billion yuan, up 34.87% YoY [2] - Sales net profit margin remains at a historically high level, with a gross margin of 31.57% and net margin of 9.74% in Q3 2024 [2] - Order backlog remains strong, with contract liabilities of 243 million yuan, up 56.20% YoY [2] - Optimized product structure in the all-terrain vehicle segment, with high-value U/Z series products increasing from 59% in 2018 to 65% in 2023 [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the cyclical recovery in the North American market and accelerated overseas capacity expansion [3] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 15.085 billion yuan in 2024E to 21.558 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 18.72% [4] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 1.362 billion yuan in 2024E to 2.113 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 24.50% [4] - EPS is projected to rise from 8.99 yuan in 2024E to 13.95 yuan in 2026E [4] - ROE is expected to improve from 17.06% in 2024E to 22.94% in 2026E [4] Valuation Metrics - PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 17.28x in 2024E to 11.14x in 2026E [4] - PB ratio is expected to decrease from 2.95x in 2024E to 2.55x in 2026E [4] - EV/EBITDA is projected to drop from 10.6x in 2024E to 5.7x in 2026E [5] Industry Outlook - The global all-terrain vehicle market reached 955,000 units in 2023, with North America accounting for 84.3% of sales [3] - The company has successfully broken into the historically oligopolistic market, with the top 5 players previously controlling over 80% of the market [3] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the cyclical recovery in the North American market and accelerate market penetration [3]