Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price of HKD 583.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.1% from the current price of HKD 502.00 [4][31]. Core Insights - Tencent's evergreen games contribute approximately 20% to the total revenue, with a significant focus on MOBA and shooting genres, showing strong overseas growth that outpaces the industry [2][8]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the gaming industry, with a projected 9% revenue growth in 2025, contributing 30% to total revenue [17][22]. - Tencent's market share in the domestic market remains stable at around 55%, while overseas gaming revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 11% from 2022 to 2024, surpassing the overall market growth of 7% [22][24]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: RMB 609,015 million - 2024: RMB 660,257 million (up 8.4% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 713,818 million (up 8.1% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 767,880 million (up 7.6% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 818,920 million (up 6.6% YoY) [3][32]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 157,688 million - 2024: RMB 222,703 million (up 44.1% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 244,774 million (up 12.0% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 268,648 million (up 11.3% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 289,453 million (up 8.9% YoY) [3][32]. Game Performance and Strategy - Tencent's evergreen games are projected to generate a total revenue of approximately RMB 1,300-1,420 million in 2024, with a significant contribution from new titles like "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" and "Delta Force" [7][11]. - The company has a robust pipeline of over 25 upcoming games, primarily based on popular IPs, which are expected to enhance its evergreen game portfolio [11][27]. - The report highlights the differentiation in game genres among competitors, with Tencent focusing on MOBA and shooting games, while other companies like NetEase and miHoYo target MMORPG and RPG genres respectively [14][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) is Neutral [2][19]. Core Views - The report indicates a recovery in performance for the second half of 2024, with strong margin improvements across the three main business segments of RDM [6]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 25.00, reflecting a potential downside of 3.5% from the current price of HKD 25.90 [1][6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for WuXi Biologics are as follows: - 2023: RMB 17,034 million - 2024: RMB 18,675 million (growth of 9.6%) - 2025E: RMB 21,417 million (growth of 14.7%) - 2026E: RMB 25,299 million (growth of 18.1%) - 2027E: RMB 28,918 million (growth of 14.3%) [5][21]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 3,837 million - 2024: RMB 4,097 million - 2025E: RMB 5,051 million (growth of 43.7%) - 2026E: RMB 6,580 million (growth of 30.3%) - 2027E: RMB 7,788 million (growth of 18.4%) [5][21]. - The company expects a revenue growth of 12-15% in 2025, driven by existing orders and pipeline conversions [6]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 47.49% [4]. - The 52-week high and low for the stock are HKD 28.50 and HKD 10.26, respectively [4]. Business Segments - The report highlights that the antibody/protein business has demonstrated resilience amid external fluctuations, with a total of 151 new integrated projects added in the year [6]. - The report notes that the North American market recorded a high growth rate of 32.5%, while Europe and mainland China showed low single-digit growth [6]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 21 times the 2025 earnings and a PEG ratio of 1.1 [6]. - The report emphasizes that despite positive free cash flow, the company plans to invest and repurchase shares, which may limit dividend payouts [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company 康诺亚 (2162 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 57.00, indicating a potential upside of 42.7% from the closing price of HKD 39.95 [2][3][12]. Core Insights - 康诺亚 is expected to achieve sales of RMB 500 million in its first year, driven by multiple competitive advantages such as multi-indication approvals and superior clinical data compared to competitors [3][7]. - The company has a robust cash reserve of RMB 2.16 billion, which is projected to support stable development over the next three years [7]. - The sales growth for 康悦达 (the company's product) is anticipated to be propelled by its approval for multiple indications, a well-established commercialization team, and effective market access strategies [7][8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 689 million, reflecting a decrease of 12.6% from previous estimates, with further declines expected in 2026 and 2027 [6][13]. - The gross profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 478 million, with a gross margin of 69.5%, down from 74.4% in prior estimates [6][13]. - The net loss for 2025 is projected to be RMB 870 million, widening from RMB 840 million in the previous forecast [6][13]. Market Position and Strategy - 康诺亚 has established a commercialization team of approximately 300 personnel, effectively covering over 1,100 hospitals across more than 220 cities [7]. - The company is expected to submit applications for additional indications in the first half of 2025, which could further enhance its market presence [7]. - Despite competitive pricing pressures, 康诺亚 is positioned to leverage its superior efficacy data to capture market share [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company 京能清洁能源 (579 HK) with a target price of HKD 2.46, indicating a potential upside of 20.6% from the current price of HKD 2.04 [1][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 3.34 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, which is 15% higher than previous expectations. This is attributed to higher-than-expected compensation for shut-down hydropower projects, reduced operational costs for wind and solar projects, and a 7% decrease in financial expenses [6][15]. - The company plans to maintain a generous dividend of RMB 0.14 per share, which is a 2% increase year-on-year [6]. - The company has a total renewable energy capacity target of 21 GW by 2025, with a current construction of 2.1 GW. The ability to meet this target will be assessed in the upcoming half-year report [6][15]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 20.45 billion in 2023, RMB 20.56 billion in 2024, and RMB 21.88 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% expected from 2024 to 2027 [3][15]. - The net profit is projected to grow from RMB 3.15 billion in 2023 to RMB 4.55 billion in 2027, with a steady increase in earnings per share from RMB 0.37 in 2023 to RMB 0.54 in 2027 [3][15]. - The company maintains a dividend yield of 7.5% for 2025 and 2026, which is considered attractive for investors [6][15]. Operational Data - The company’s installed capacity is expected to grow significantly, with wind power capacity increasing from 5,566 MW in 2023 to 11,958 MW by 2027, and solar power capacity from 3,818 MW to 10,368 MW in the same period [8][9]. - The proportion of wind and solar power in the total energy mix is projected to rise from 64.7% in 2023 to 81.2% by 2027 [8]. Market Position - The company is positioned favorably within the renewable energy sector, with a focus on wind and solar energy, which are expected to dominate its energy production in the coming years [6][15].

交银国际研究 今日焦点 宏观策略 | 宏观策略 | | --- | | 港股回调后的分歧与等待 | 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com 短期利好落地后，资金在当前位置出现分歧，港股高位回调。上周初港 股在两厅印发的《提振消费专项行动方案》的政策利好带动下上攻，恒 指一度逼近 25000 点高位。随着短期乐观情绪逐步消化，且主要龙头公 司业绩公布后，港股回吐部分涨幅。 海外风险再定价，风险偏好料继续回落，市场情绪预计维持谨慎。过去 一个阶段，市场受乐观情绪驱动，对海外风险定价有所不足。随着近期 利好落地后，市场对海外风险的关注度预计将逐渐提升。4 月 2 号，美 国对等关税调查结果即将出炉，是否会有新一波的关税仍有不确定性。 若短期海外影响有进一步催化，港股或有望阶段性企稳。 基本面数据持续验证中，四月中央政治局会议或为重要政策新节点。 1Q25"开门红"效应下，内地生产、投资端数据表现强劲。进入四月， 后续消费、地产等各项基本面的增长数据、以及关税等外部影响将成为 市场关注重点，也是四月底中央政治局会议会否释放更进一步政策刺激 信号的关键。 | 快手 | | | 1024 HK | | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Company Limited (1211 HK) with a target price of HKD 503.25, indicating a potential upside of 24.8% from the current closing price of HKD 403.40 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, driven by export expansion and advancements in intelligent driving technology. The report emphasizes the dual engines of growth: increased exports and the democratization of intelligent driving features [2][7]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 is set at RMB 777.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29%, with net profit expected to reach RMB 40.254 billion, a 34% increase [7][8]. - The report highlights that BYD's sales volume for 2024 is projected to be 4.27 million vehicles, representing a 41.2% year-on-year increase, with a market share of 33.2% in the new energy vehicle sector [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 602,315 in 2023 to 977,249 in 2025E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.8% [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 30,041 million RMB in 2023 to 52,460 million RMB in 2025E, reflecting a CAGR of 30.3% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 13.33 in 2023 to RMB 23.28 in 2025E, indicating strong profitability growth [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.2 in 2023 to 16.2 in 2025E, suggesting improved valuation attractiveness [3]. Market Position and Strategy - BYD is expected to leverage its self-built roll-on/roll-off fleet and expanding overseas factories in Thailand, Brazil, and Hungary to boost export volumes significantly [7]. - The introduction of the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" intelligent driving system aims to make high-level autonomous driving features accessible in lower-priced models, enhancing market penetration [7]. - The report anticipates that sales will reach 5.23 million vehicles in 2025, a 23% increase year-on-year, supported by the growth in exports and intelligent driving technology [7].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 25 日 今日焦点 | 蔚来汽车 | | 9866 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 业绩不及预期，降本增效下 | 2 季度估值或迎来拐 | 评级: 买入 | | 点，维持买入 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 35.90 | 目标价: 港元 48.96↓ | 潜在涨幅: +36.4% | | 陈庆 | angus.chan@bocomgroup.com | | 2024 年业绩超市场预期，阿美乐表现亮眼：收入和净利润分别增长 21.3%/33.4%至 123 亿/43.7 亿元，阿美乐全年销售额同比增长 29%。管理层 对于 2025 年的指引包括：1）全年收入录得双位数增速，其中创新药产品收 入 100 亿元，同比增长 25%以上；2）阿美乐销售达到 60 亿元；3）派息率 与 2024 年相似水平。 创新管线蓄势待发，长期高成长能见度强：1）两款已出海 ADC：GSK 计划 于 4Q25 启动 B7H3 ADC 的注册研究，B7H4 ADC 今年读出 I 期数据，2026 年 进入注册临床；2）GLP-1 系列管线：GIP/GLP-1 双靶 ...

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the March FOMC meeting, aligning with market expectations, indicating a challenging environment for rate cuts amid stagflation concerns [2][3] - The economic forecast has been downgraded, with 2025 GDP growth revised from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate adjusted from 4.3% to 4.4%, reflecting a stagflation narrative [6][8] - The Fed's decision to slow down balance sheet reduction from $25 billion to $5 billion per month is seen as a proactive measure to mitigate risks amid economic uncertainties [17][20] Interest Rate Outlook - The median interest rate forecast suggests two rate cuts, but the number of committee members supporting this has decreased from 15 to 11, indicating a higher threshold for future cuts [6][8] - The current unemployment rate of 4.1% is expected to rise to 4.4% by the end of 2025, which historically correlates with recessionary conditions [8][10] - The Fed faces pressure from the White House regarding high interest rates, which conflict with fiscal goals such as reducing the deficit and encouraging manufacturing return [22][27] Economic Projections - The economic projections indicate a shift towards a potential shallow recession, with the likelihood of rate cuts increasing as economic conditions evolve [22][27] - The Fed's economic outlook reflects a balance of risks, with inflation expectations rising among committee members, complicating the path for rate cuts [5][6] - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, which may impact economic stability and the Fed's decision-making process [3][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 44.00, indicating a potential upside of 84.1% from the current price of HKD 23.90 [2][3][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve profitability again in 2024, driven by strong overseas sales of Furmonertinib and effective cost control measures. The focus for 2025 will be on the NDA submission for SAVANNAH in the U.S. and the progress of new product approvals in mainland China [3][7]. - Despite a decline in one-time collaboration income, the company has managed to maintain a positive outlook due to robust sales performance and cost management [3][7]. - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected at USD 708 million, with a slight decrease from previous estimates, while net profit is expected to rise significantly to USD 452 million, reflecting a 15% increase from prior forecasts [6][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 show a slight downward adjustment of 1-4% for revenue, but an increase in net profit projections due to ongoing cost control efforts [7][12]. - The company anticipates oncology and immunology revenue to reach USD 350-450 million in 2025, with a projected growth of over 30% in product market sales [7]. - The DCF model estimates the company's equity value at approximately USD 4.916 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 44.00 [8][12]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 5.99%, with a 52-week high of HKD 34.70 and a low of HKD 20.25 [5][11]. - The report highlights the significant growth in oncology product revenue, which increased by 65% year-on-year, primarily due to the strong market performance of Furmonertinib [7][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Anta (2020 HK) [2][6][7] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance met market expectations, with revenue reaching 70.83 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. The guidance for 2025 indicates revenue growth in the high single to double digits [6][9] - The company is focusing on enhancing its global multi-brand strategy, with significant growth expected in Southeast Asia and an expansion target for overseas business to contribute 15% within five years [6][9] - The report projects a target price of 113.3 HKD, corresponding to a 22x P/E ratio for 2025, reflecting a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price [6][7] Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 62.36 billion RMB in 2023, 70.83 billion RMB in 2024, and 77.16 billion RMB in 2025, with growth rates of 16.2%, 13.6%, and 8.9% respectively [5][9] - Net profit is expected to be 10.24 billion RMB in 2023, increasing to 15.60 billion RMB in 2024, but projected to decrease to 14.08 billion RMB in 2025 [5][9] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of over 50%, with a proposed final dividend of 1.18 HKD per share for 2024 [6][9] Brand Performance - Anta brand revenue grew by 10.6% to 33.52 billion RMB, while FILA brand revenue increased by 6.1% to 26.63 billion RMB, indicating strong performance in the high-end market [6][9] - Other brands contributed significantly, with a 53.7% increase in revenue to 10.68 billion RMB, driven by brands like Descente and Kolon [6][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its product mix by increasing the proportion of lower-margin footwear products, which has led to a slight decline in gross margin to 62.2% [6][9] - The management is optimistic about the upcoming sports events in 2024, which are expected to boost advertising and promotional expenditures [6][9]