日度报告——综合晨报 8 月非农远不及预期，深圳进一步放松住房限 宏观策略（股指期货） 深圳进一步放松住房限购政策 周五 A 股缩量修复，带动市场情绪转暖。但我们认为单边流畅 上涨阶段或已过去，更符合基本面的震荡消化调整或将发生。 综 宏观策略（国债期货） 购政策 [T报ab告le日_R期a：nk] 2025-09-08 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 8 月非农新增就业 2.2 万大幅低于预期 8 月非农远不及预期，降息预期再度发酵，支撑市场风险偏好， 美股震荡偏强运行。 合 央行开展了 1883 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 晨 报 反内卷交易再度升温，权益、商品大涨，国债期货大幅下跌。 中长期来看，债市的预期差在于通胀。 黑色金属（动力煤） 9 月 5 日北港市场动力煤报价弱稳 供应端政策真空期，预计短期煤价季节性震荡回落，下方 650 元左右支撑短期可靠。长期关注供应端主动收缩政策能否衔接。 农产品（棉花） 美棉出口周报（8.22-8.28）：中国签约增长 USDA 上周发布的美棉出口销售数据表现强劲，近期东南亚纺织 国采购有所加大，但美国关税政策及就业数据疲软令市场对需 求前景的担忧犹存。 能源化工（原 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading volume of the commodity options market remained at a low level this week, but there were significant increases in the trading volume and open interest of some varieties. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed trends this week, with the chemical sector mostly declining. Most commodity options' implied volatility increased, and different varieties showed different market sentiments [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - This week (2025.9.1 - 2025.9.5), the average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.89 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.32 million lots, with环比 increases of 15.91% and 13.41% respectively [1][8]. - Actively traded varieties included polysilicon (600,000 lots), lithium carbonate (580,000 lots), and glass (560,000 lots). The trading volume of gold, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate increased by over 100%, while that of apple and p - xylene decreased significantly [1][8]. - Varieties with high average daily open interest were glass (910,000 lots), soda ash (880,000 lots), and soybean meal (780,000 lots). The open interest of tin, lead, and copper increased rapidly [1][8]. 3.2 Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Movements**: The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed trends, with 28 varieties closing higher for the week. Polysilicon (+14.49%), industrial silicon (+5.13%), and silver (+4.51%) had high weekly increases, while jujube (-4.43%), lithium carbonate (-3.78%), and ethylene glycol (-2.49%) had high weekly decreases [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. 30 varieties' current implied volatility was below the 50% quantile of the past - year history. Polysilicon, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and eggs had high implied volatility, while some varieties in the oilseeds and non - ferrous metals sectors had low implied volatility [2][15]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of some varieties such as bottle chips, LPG, and lithium carbonate was at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of rubber, tin, nickel, etc. was at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of polysilicon, lead, and lithium carbonate was at a historical high, while that of ethylene glycol, urea, etc. was at a historical low [2][15]. 3.3 Main Varieties Key Data Overview This chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. - **Energy**: Data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil are presented [20]. - **Chemical**: Key data of PTA, caustic soda, glass, and soda ash are shown, including trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [27][36][43][49]. - **Precious Metals**: Data on silver's trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [55]. - **Ferrous Metals**: Key data of iron ore and manganese silicon, including trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR, are presented [63][71]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Data on copper and alumina, including trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR, are shown [78][92]. - **Agricultural Products**: Key data of soybean meal, palm oil, and cotton, including trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR, are presented [93][100][108].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index trends is "oscillation" [5] Core View of the Report - A-shares may enter a period of high-level oscillatory tug-of-war in September, rather than the previous one-way upward trend. This is due to factors such as the ongoing domestic anti-involution policy with potential long - term PPI boost, the high probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, and the short - term pressure on the domestic economy with a large gap between the stock market and the economy [2][11] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - **Next - Week View**: A - shares may enter an oscillatory adjustment period. The market showed a sharp oscillation this week, with three consecutive days of one - way decline from September 2nd to 4th, followed by a rebound on September 5th. The market style is shifting towards large - cap growth, and factors such as domestic policies, overseas interest rate cuts, and domestic economic pressure will affect the market trend [2][11] - **This - Week Key Events**: Multiple events occurred, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization leaders' meeting, the announcement of the China - Latin America Entrepreneurs Summit, statements on urban development, visa - free policies between China and Russia, central bank liquidity announcements, joint meetings between the Ministry of Finance and the central bank, policies to promote the sports industry, anti - circumvention measures against US fiber products, and reforms in public fund sales fees [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23] 2. One - Week Market行情 Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: Global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose this week. The MSCI Global Index increased by 0.44%, with emerging markets (+1.40%) > frontier markets (+0.52%) > developed markets (+0.32%). China's stock market led the world with a 1.89% increase, while Germany's stock market had the worst performance with a 1.26% decline [24] - **China Stock Market Weekly Overview**: China's equity assets were differentiated. In terms of different markets, Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks > A - shares. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets in A - shares was 2.6036 trillion yuan, a decrease of 380.3 billion yuan compared to last week. Most indices rose, with the Beixin 50 Index rising 2.79% and the Kechuang 50 Index falling 5.42% [27] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries declined this week. The leading industry was telecommunications services (+3.89%), and the underperforming industry was energy (-2.59%). In the Chinese market, healthcare led the rise (+1.34%), while information technology lagged (-4.98%) [31] - **Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries**: Among China's A - share CITIC primary industries, 10 industries rose (15 last week) and 20 industries fell (15 last week). The leading industry was new energy (+5.91%), and the industry with the largest underperformance was national defense and military industry (-11.61%) [32] - **Weekly Overview of China A - Share Style**: The large - cap growth style was dominant. The growth style outperformed the value style, and the market - cap style was biased towards large - cap [37] - **Futures Basis Overview**: Information on the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months is provided [40][44] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad - Based Index Valuation**: Valuation data of various broad - based indices such as the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 100, etc. are presented, including PE and PB this week, their eight - year percentiles, and changes compared to the beginning of the year [45] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: Valuation data of various primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. are shown, including PE and PB this week, their eight - year percentiles, and changes compared to the beginning of the year [46] - **Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [47][52] - **Broad - Based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast**: The 2025 and 2026 expected earnings growth rates of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have been adjusted [53] 4. Liquidity and Fund Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond declined, the 1 - year yield increased, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 97.7, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.12 [61] - **Trading - Type Fund Tracking**: The average daily trading volume of north - bound funds decreased by 39.9 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 18.8 billion yuan [63] - **Fund Inflow Tracking through ETFs**: The number of on - exchange ETFs tracking the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500 is given. The share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 240 million shares, the share of those tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 40 million shares, the share of those tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 930 million shares, and the share of those tracking the CSI A500 increased by 50 million shares [67][68][71] 5. Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Supply Side**: Crude steel production declined significantly. Indicators such as blast furnace operating rates, coking enterprise operating rates, and tire operating rates are presented [75][76][77] - **Consumption Side**: Real estate transactions remained sluggish. Data on housing transaction areas, land transaction areas, and passenger car wholesale sales are provided [82][83][89][91] - **Inflation Observation**: Production material prices rebounded from a low level, while agricultural product prices reached a new low this year [93][94]

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report - Risk Management: Futures Technical Analysis Weekly Report (Week 36, 2025) - Report Date: September 7, 2025 Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific technical analysis and signal summaries for different sectors, which can be used to infer potential investment trends for each sector. Core Views - Different sectors in the futures market show diverse trends. Some sectors have clear bullish signals, while others are in a state of oscillation. The volatility of each sector and variety also varies significantly, with some showing high volatility and others more stable [1][2][3][4]. Sector Summaries 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, tin, nickel, industrial silicon, and polycrystalline silicon show bullish signals, while most precious metals are in an oscillating state. Gold shows a bullish signal, and silver is oscillating. For example, aluminum, tin, and nickel have strong bullish signals [10][11]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Copper (CU2510)**: The adjustment is not over yet. Although the moving average shows a bullish arrangement and the risk of decline is weak, it is necessary to wait for price signals. The price has the potential to break through, but it needs volume - price driving signals [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The downward momentum has weakened, and it has temporarily found support at the MA60 moving average. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of a callback, especially the support effectiveness in the range of 66,800 - 69,600 [17]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: New energy and high - tech metals represented by lithium carbonate and polycrystalline silicon have a wide price fluctuation range, indicating high market volatility. Traditional industrial metals and precious metals have relatively more stable price trends [21]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: The black sector mainly has bullish and oscillating signals. Rebar, wire rod, iron ore, coking coal, and ferrosilicon show bullish signals, while other black varieties are oscillating. The European line shipping shows a bullish signal [26][27]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The price has been oscillating and falling this week, but the support around 3,050 - 3,070 yuan/ton is effective. The MACD shows a potential golden cross. If the price breaks below this range, it may fall to the 2,950 - 3,000 range [30]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Coking coal, coke, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, and European line shipping have a wide range of support and resistance levels, indicating high market volatility. Rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore have relatively more stable price trends [35]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: The energy sector is in an oscillating state. In the chemical sector, glass, methanol, synthetic rubber, and pure benzene show bullish signals, while other varieties are oscillating [37][38][39]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The downward trend has stabilized, but it needs volume - price signals to confirm a rebound. The short - term support range of 1,230 - 1,250 yuan/ton is effective [43]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Paraxylene (PX), styrene, short - fiber, and bottle chips have a wide range of support and resistance levels, with high market volatility. Crude oil, methanol, and other varieties have relatively more stable price trends [45]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: In the agricultural products sector, soybean oil, peanuts, rapeseed oil, and the corn series show bullish signals. Eggs have changed from a bullish to a bearish signal, and cotton shows a bearish signal. Other varieties are oscillating [50][51][52]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The price has shown signs of stabilizing in the range of 2,980 - 3,020 yuan/ton, and the MA60 moving average provides effective support. However, it needs increased volume to confirm bullish momentum [56]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Palm oil, cotton, and other varieties have a wide range of support and resistance levels, with high market volatility. Corn, corn starch, and logs have relatively more stable price trends [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Bearish / Polysilicon: Bearish [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. Short - term industrial silicon may operate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities. For polysilicon, although the spot dense material quotation has risen to 55 yuan/kg, the actual transaction price is likely to be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg. After the sharp rise in the futures market stimulated by the "anti - involution" news, the futures have a large premium over the spot, which may stimulate the hedging willingness of silicon material enterprises again. The upward space of polysilicon is limited, while the downward space is opened. Short - term attention should be paid to the callback opportunity, and the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity can be considered at around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial silicon/polysilicon industry chain prices - This week, the Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 430 yuan/ton to 8820 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - passing 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9100 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 8500 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 7180 yuan/ton to 56735 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re -投料 increased by 1100 yuan/ton to 49000 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 "Anti - involution" news stimulates significant premium in the futures market - **Industrial silicon**: The main futures contract of industrial silicon fluctuated downward this week. The number of open furnaces in Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Northeast decreased by 3, 1, and 1 respectively. The resumption volume of large factories in Xinjiang was less than expected, and the southern start - up was basically stable. Some silicon factories may start to reduce production during the dry season in late October. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.40 million tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons. Downstream maintained rigid demand procurement without stockpiling. If the start - up of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, industrial silicon may accumulate about 30,000 tons of inventory from September to October and may reduce inventory by about 100,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. If large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to reduce inventory during the dry season [11] - **Organic silicon**: The price of organic silicon decreased slightly this week. Some devices were shut down or under maintenance, and the weekly start - up rate changed little. The overall start - up rate of enterprises was 73.47%, the weekly output was 48,600 tons, an increase of 1.04%, and the inventory was 48,400 tons, a decrease of 1.83%. New orders increased slightly, and the market activity increased slightly. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will fluctuate at a low level [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The main futures contract of polysilicon rose significantly this week. Polysilicon production and sales restrictions officially started in September, and the production schedule in September is still around 128,000 tons. Attention should be paid to whether the production will further decline to the quota level. As of September 4, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 211,000 tons, mainly concentrated in two first - tier enterprises. Silicon wafer enterprises' polysilicon raw material inventory reached 200,000 tons. Silicon material enterprises continued to raise prices, but downstream enterprises were resistant to high - priced silicon materials. It is expected that the transaction price of dense material in September will be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg [13] - **Silicon wafers**: The quotation of silicon wafers was further raised this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers remained at 1.25/1.40/1.60 yuan/piece, but the quotations of M10/G12 were further raised to 1.30/1.65 yuan/piece. As of September 4, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 16.85GW, and the production schedule in September was 57.5GW. It is expected that silicon wafers will stabilize at the new quotation in the short term [14] - **Battery cells**: The price of battery cells further increased this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells rose to 0.3/0.295 yuan/watt, while that of G12R remained at 0.285 yuan/watt. As of September 1, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.81GW, and the production schedule in September was 60GW. The price increase of silicon wafers put pressure on battery cells. It is expected that the price of battery cells will remain stable in the short term [15] - **Components**: The price of components remained basically stable this week. Centralized components mainly executed previous orders, and distributed projects executed more new orders. The upstream price increase was not smoothly transmitted to the terminal. It is expected that the component price will fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether there are demand - side policy introductions [16][17] 3.3 Investment advice - **Industrial silicon**: Pay attention to the follow - up progress of large factories' resumption in Xinjiang. Short - term industrial silicon may operate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and pay attention to range - trading opportunities [18] - **Polysilicon**: The actual transaction price of dense material is likely to be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg. After the sharp rise in the futures market, the futures have a large premium over the spot, which may stimulate the hedging willingness of silicon material enterprises. The upward space of polysilicon is limited, and the downward space is opened. Short - term attention should be paid to the callback opportunity, and the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity can be considered at around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][18] 3.4 Hot news sorting - **China Anneng's component purchase project change**: The original 0.66 yuan/W component price limit was invalid. The tender scale was changed from 2GW to 200MW, and the tender model was changed. The new tender does not set a price limit [19] - **Two - department policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued a plan to govern the low - price competition of photovoltaic products according to law, strengthen the monitoring and early warning of key industries, and guide the orderly layout of the photovoltaic and lithium - battery industries [19] 3.5 Industrial chain high - frequency data tracking - **Industrial silicon**: It includes data such as the spot price of oxygen - passing 553 and 99 silicon, weekly output in different regions, and social and factory inventories [21][24][28] - **Organic silicon**: It includes data such as the spot price of DMC, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly output [31][32] - **Polysilicon**: It includes data such as the spot price, weekly gross profit, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly output [36][37] - **Silicon wafers**: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly output [38][40][43] - **Battery cells**: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, export factory inventory, and enterprise monthly output [44][46][50] - **Components**: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly output [53][58][60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Oscillation" [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (09/01 - 09/05), lithium salt prices were weak. The closing prices of LC2509 and LC2511 decreased by 4.1% and 3.8% respectively. The average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped by 6.2% and 6.3%. The prices of lithium hydroxide also declined [3]. - In August, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide decreased by 16% month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased by 5% month - on - month, which may lead to a slight decline in China's imports in September [4]. - The recent decline in the futures market is mainly due to the lack of further production cuts in the short term after the previous supply - side shutdown, and the continuous negative impact of explicit data such as warehouse receipts. However, the inventory reduction in September has provided some support for prices. In the short term, lithium prices may fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Chile's August Shipment Declined Month - on - Month, and Warehouse Receipts Increased Significantly Last Week - Lithium salt prices were weak last week. The closing prices of LC2509 and LC2511 decreased, and the average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped. The prices of lithium hydroxide decreased, the electrical - industrial price difference narrowed slightly, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide changed from a discount to a slight premium compared to battery - grade lithium carbonate [3][15]. - In August, Chile exported 2.01 million tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 16% month - on - month decrease and an 11% year - on - year increase. The exports to China were 1.30 million tons, a 5% month - on - month decrease and a 7% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total exports were 16.9 million tons, a 4% year - on - year decrease, and the exports to China were 10.98 million tons, a 14% year - on - year decrease. In terms of lithium sulfate, the shipment to China in August was 0.69 million tons (0.35 million tons LCE), a 33% month - on - month decrease and a 2% year - on - year decrease [4][16]. - The recent decline in the futures market is due to the lack of further production cuts and the negative impact of warehouse receipts. Last week, warehouse receipts increased by 6744 tons to 3.66 million tons. In September, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 0.15 million tons to 8.67 million tons. However, inventory reduction in September has provided some support for prices, and the speed of warehouse receipt generation may slow down [5][21]. 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Sayona Mining completed its merger with Piedmont Lithium. After the merger, Sayona's Australian shares will continue to trade until the end of September, and the company will be renamed Elevra Lithium and listed on the ASX [23]. - Argentina's Salta Province approved Rio Tinto's Rincon lithium project. The project is expected to produce 50,000 tons/year of battery - grade lithium carbonate and will become one of the largest lithium projects in Argentina by 2031 [23]. - Sichuan Energy Investment Power Co., Ltd.'s 30,000 - ton lithium salt project successfully produced qualified battery - grade lithium carbonate products, laying a foundation for full - scale production [24]. - Kodal Minerals obtained an export license for the lithium spodumene concentrate produced at its Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali, with an initial export volume of 125,000 tons [24]. 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Declined - The spot price of lithium concentrate decreased. For example, the average spot price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased by 2.6% month - on - month [16]. 3.2 Lithium Salts: The Futures Market Rose and Then Fell - The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts decreased, and the average spot prices of domestic lithium carbonate also declined. The electrical - industrial price difference and the basis of lithium carbonate changed [16]. 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Rebounded - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium cobalt oxide showed different trends, with some prices slightly increasing and some decreasing [16]. 3.4 Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate Slightly Increased in July - In July, China's new energy vehicle penetration rate slightly increased, and the installed capacity of power batteries and the production and sales of new energy vehicles also showed certain trends [51].

周度报告-黄金 金价短期高位运行，市场维持多头情绪，美联储进入会议前的静 默期，内盘维持折价外盘状态。 美国非农弱于预期，国际金价创新高 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | 黄金：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 9 月 | 年 | 7 | 日 | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 4%至 3586 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.07%，通胀预 期 2.39%，实际利率回落至 1.76%，美元指数震荡收于 97.7，标普 500 指数涨 0.33%，人民币走势震荡，沪金折价扩大。 贵 金 属 国际金价一度突破 3600 美金关口再创历史新高，沪金主力合约上 涨至 820 元/克，由于人民币升值以及国内股市表现强劲，内盘涨 势略微逊色外盘。美联储独立性问题引发市场担忧，海外资金对 黄金的流入增加，但其他资产并不显著发酵美联储独立性问题， 中长期来看仍有发酵空间。美国 8 月非农就业报告显示劳动力市 场继续降温，作为 9 月利率会议前的数据以及继劳工部统计局长 换人后的首次数据，市场特别关注本次非 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has cooled, with most stocks falling, bond yields mostly declining, and the US Treasury yield dropping to 4.07%. The US dollar index oscillated and closed flat at 97.7, non - US currencies showed mixed performance, gold prices rose 4% to $3,586 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 15.1, the spot commodity index fell, and Brent crude oil dropped 3.7% to $65.1 per barrel [1][9] - The market is concerned about Trump's influence on the Fed's personnel changes, and concerns about the Fed's independence have increased but not significantly fermented. There are significant differences among Fed officials' views before the September interest - rate meeting, with some dovish and some hawkish. The market has fully priced in a 25bp rate cut in September, and the expectation of a 50bp rate cut has increased, but a significant rate cut is still a low - probability scenario due to inflation rebound pressure [2][11] - The August non - farm payrolls report showed that the US employment market continued to cool down, with new non - farm jobs falling short of expectations, the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, and wage growth slowing down. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, and the weakening labor market may lead to a weaker US dollar [2][33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite cooled. Most stocks fell, bond yields mostly declined, the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.07%. The US dollar index oscillated and closed flat at 97.7, non - US currencies had mixed performance, gold prices rose 4% to $3,586 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 15.1, the spot commodity index fell, and Brent crude oil dropped 3.7% to $65.1 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly fell. The S&P 500 index rose 0.33%, euro - zone stock markets mostly fell, emerging - market stock markets mostly rose, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.36%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.7% [10][11] - The market is concerned about Trump's influence on the Fed's personnel changes, and concerns about the Fed's independence have increased. Fed officials have different views before the September interest - rate meeting, and the August non - farm payrolls report is a key factor [11] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined. The 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.07%, euro - zone government bond yields mostly declined, and emerging - market bond yields mostly declined [18] - The August non - farm payrolls report strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, pushing down the US Treasury yield. However, the manufacturing and service PMI showed increased price - rising pressure, and the upcoming August CPI in the US is expected to rebound, limiting the downward space of the long - end US Treasury yield [19] - The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield slightly dropped to 1.776%, and the Sino - US interest - rate spread inverted to 229bp. The domestic bond market remained weak [22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index oscillated and closed at 97.7, non - US currencies had mixed performance. The offshore RMB fell 0.05%, the euro rose 0.28%, the pound rose 0.04%, the yen fell 0.26%, and some currencies depreciated while others appreciated [27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 4% to $3,586 per ounce, reaching a new high. Trump's intervention in the Fed increased concerns about its independence, which was positive for gold. The expectation of a rate cut increased, but significant rate cuts were less likely due to inflation [30] - Brent crude oil dropped 3.7% to $65.1 per barrel. The decline in crude oil inventory was less than expected, supply increased, and weak supply - demand relationship pressured oil prices. The domestic industrial product anti - involution trading was volatile, and the commodity spot index fell [30] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The August non - farm payrolls in the US fell short of expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and new non - farm jobs only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000. The labor market continued to weaken, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September [33] - The non - farm data made the weakening trend of the US dollar index more obvious, and the market is more inclined to a soft landing of the US economy, with continued bearish sentiment on the US dollar index [34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: China's August imports and exports, US August New York Fed inflation expectations - Tuesday: US August NFIB small business confidence index, US 2025 non - farm employment benchmark change preliminary value - Wednesday: China's August CPI, US August PPI - Thursday: US August CPI, ECB September interest - rate meeting resolution - Friday: US September University of Michigan consumer confidence index and inflation expectations [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints - Next week, most fundamental data is expected to be weak, but the M1 growth rate may continue to rise, and the market is relatively insensitive to fundamental data. The bond market in Q3 has seasonal patterns, with adjustment pressure increasing in the middle and late months. The decline in constraints on domestic incremental policies after the Fed's rate cut and the potential for an anti - involution market may suppress bond market sentiment. It is recommended to take a bearish approach to the bond market next week, continue to focus on short - hedging strategies, and consider steepening the yield curve strategies [2] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From September 1st to September 7th, treasury bond futures oscillated. On Monday, the bond market strengthened; on Tuesday, both stocks and bonds declined; on Wednesday, the bond market first rose and then the gains narrowed; on Thursday, the bond market rose due to the stock market decline; on Friday, the bond market fell sharply. As of September 5th, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main contracts were 102.388, 105.580, 107.920, and 116.300 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.032, + 0.065, + 0.100, and - 0.260 yuan compared to last weekend [9] 1.2 Next Week's View - The bond market is expected to be weak next week. Fundamental data is concentrated, but the market is insensitive to it. The M1 growth rate may rise, and the risk appetite may increase. The approaching tax period will lead to marginal tightening of the capital side. The Fed's rate - cut expectation and the potential anti - involution market may suppress bond market sentiment. It is recommended to take a bearish approach, focus on short - hedging strategies, and consider steepening the yield curve strategies [2][11][12] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 39 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 5629.61 billion yuan and a net financing of 3170.39 billion yuan. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of local government bonds decreased, and that of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [18] 2.2 Secondary Market - As of September 5th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds showed a differentiated trend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed, while the 10Y - 5Y spread widened. The implied tax rate increased [22] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Position - As of September 5th, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main contracts changed compared to last weekend. The trading volumes and positions of each contract decreased compared to last weekend [32][35] 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious. The basis of treasury bond futures generally oscillated narrowly, and the IRR of the CTD bonds of each main contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%. The basis and IRR of TL fluctuated greatly, but trading opportunities were difficult to grasp [39] 3.3 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - As of September 5th, the inter - period spreads of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2509 - 2512 contracts changed compared to last weekend [43] 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - This week, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 12047 billion yuan. The R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week rates all decreased. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased, and the overnight proportion was slightly higher than last week [48][51][53] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index oscillated narrowly, and the yield of the 10Y US treasury bond decreased. As of September 5th, the US dollar index fell 0.11% to 97.7357, and the yield of the 10Y US treasury bond was 4.10%, down 13BP from last weekend. The 8 - month non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, strengthening the rate - cut expectation [59] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices fell, and agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of September 5th, the South China industrial product index, metal index, and energy and chemical index decreased, while the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits changed differently compared to last weekend [62] 7. Investment Suggestions - The bond market is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is recommended to take a bearish approach [63]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for alumina is "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina supply continues to recover, and the supply surplus widens. The spot price of alumina declined last week, and the market sentiment is bearish. The supply of alumina is increasing, while the demand is also rising both domestically and overseas. The inventory of alumina has increased, and the registered warehouse receipts on the SHFE have also risen. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [1][2][13][16] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, the含税 price of 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 658 yuan/ton; and in Guizhou, the arrival - at - factory含税 price of 60/6 bauxite was 596 yuan/ton. Shanxi's ore production was affected by policies, rainfall, and the parade. Imported ore: The ALD Guinea ore price index was 74 - 76 dollars/dry ton. Newly - arrived ore was 456.2 million tons, including 319.1 million tons from Guinea and 137.0 million tons from Australia. The freight from Guinea to China dropped by 1 dollar to 25 dollars/ton [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina fell last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3040 - 3120 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 3101 yuan/ton, down 82.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was 3190 - 3230 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The market was bearish, and buyers' willingness to purchase decreased. The domestic full - cost of alumina was 2871 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 361 yuan/ton. The national alumina production capacity was 11462 million tons, with 9675 million tons in operation, an increase of 170 million tons from last week, and the operating rate was 84.4% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Yunnan Honghe New Materials' operating capacity increased by 7 million tons to about 30 million tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 4414.3 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons. Overseas, the New Zealand Tiwai Point electrolytic aluminum plant was resuming production, with an operating capacity of 33.8 million tons and about to reach full - capacity. Indonesia's Juwana Aluminum started power - on testing in early September, expected to produce 15 - 20 million tons this year. The overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 2969.4 million tons, an increase of 10.4 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of September 4th, the national alumina inventory was 360.9 million tons, an increase of 11.2 million tons from last week. The electrolytic aluminum inventory increased significantly, the alumina factory inventory increased implicitly, and the in - transit volume decreased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 112306 tons, an increase of 23480 tons from last week [15] 2. Summary of Key Events and News in the Industry Chain during the Week - On September 5th, a Xinjiang aluminum plant tendered for 1 million tons of alumina at a delivered price of 3240 yuan/ton, with suppliers mainly delivering Shandong goods due to the railway freight discount in Shandong [17] - On September 5th, a Chongqing electrolytic aluminum enterprise purchased 0.5 million tons of alumina in Guizhou at a delivered price of 3350 yuan/ton [17] - Overseas, the tender sales of spot alumina increased, with the origin mainly in Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and India, and the shipping dates mostly from early to late October, potentially increasing domestic supply [17] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost End - Data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipments from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces were presented [18][20][22] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina were provided [35][37][39] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventory, alumina plants' alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and open interest were shown [46][49][52]