Group 1: Market Outlook - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of 2025, predicting a potential upward trend for the Hang Seng Index, which is expected to reach 27,500 points by the end of December 2025, based on a forecasted P/E ratio of 12.2 times [2][30] - The Chinese decision-makers are expected to implement incremental policies to strengthen domestic circulation, promote supply-side reforms, and expand domestic consumption demand [2][30] - The report highlights attractive valuation levels in the current Hong Kong stock market, suggesting that the market is currently in a historically lower valuation range compared to previous years [2][31] Group 2: Sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, the Hong Kong stock market outperformed other major global markets, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 20.0% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 18.68% [3][4] - The healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors showed strong performance, with respective increases of 47.7%, 45.6%, and 29.8% [4][7] - The report notes that the premium of A-shares over H-shares has decreased, indicating a narrowing gap in valuations between the two markets [4][16] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities are identified in areas such as supply-side reform, infrastructure development, and consumer-driven companies, particularly those with low valuations and high dividend yields [2][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading consumer companies and domestic brands that are benefiting from accelerated domestic substitution processes [2][30] - The ongoing infrastructure projects, such as the construction of the largest hydropower station in China, are expected to benefit related sectors, including construction, machinery, and materials [2][38] Group 4: Capital Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong capital market remains liquid, with significant inflows from southbound trading, which accounted for 22.1% of total market turnover by June 30, 2025 [17][23] - The report indicates that the IPO financing amount in Hong Kong reached $141 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 695% year-on-year increase, positioning Hong Kong as the top global IPO market [17][23] - The report also highlights the impact of geopolitical risks on market sentiment, noting that companies with mainland backgrounds dominate the Hong Kong market, comprising 80.97% of total market capitalization [24]

Macro Economic Overview - The report highlights that the upcoming US tariff policy is expected to have a substantial impact on the global economy, with a recommended asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds > currencies [1][2] - The report notes a rise in risk appetite for RMB assets, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.69% and coking coal futures surging by 32.60% [1][11] Economic Data and Performance - In June, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 4.3% year-on-year, indicating a contraction in the industrial sector [4][18] - The report mentions that the fiscal revenue for the first half of the year reached 11.56 trillion yuan, with tax revenue showing a continuous increase for three months [18] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies for equities, while recommending a lower allocation to bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [3][12] - For commodities, the report advises maintaining a standard allocation while monitoring the progress of fiscal incremental policies [3][12] Market Trends - The report indicates that the A-share market saw a broad increase, with the leading index being the Shanghai 380, which rose by 3.48% [35] - The report also notes that the automotive sector is expected to maintain good growth momentum, supported by policies such as "trade-in" incentives [31][37] Bond Market Insights - The bond market experienced an upward adjustment in yields, with the ten-year government bond yield rising by 7 basis points to 1.73% [41][43] - The report highlights that the central bank is likely to maintain a stable interest rate environment, with potential room for further monetary easing in the second half of the year [43]

Daily Spotlight 28 July 2025 Michael MENG (852) 3988 6433 michael.meng@bocigroup.com Index Performance | | Last close | % 1D | % YTD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 25,388 | (1.1) | 26.6 | | HSCEI | 9,150 | (1.2) | 25.5 | | HSCCI | 4,322 | (0.3) | 14.3 | | MSCI HK | 13,154 | (0.8) | 24.5 | | MSCI CHINA | 81 | (1.1) | 25.0 | | FTSE CHINA A50 | 13,965 | (0.6) | 3.3 | | CSI 300 | 4,127 | (0.5) | 4.9 | | TWSE | 23,364 | (0.0) | 1.4 | | SENSEX | 82,184 | (0.7) | 5.2 | | NIKKEI 225 | 41,456 | (0.9) | 3.9 | | ...

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 28 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20250727 国际油价下跌，纯碱、有机硅价格上涨 今年以来，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，七月份建议关注：1、安 全监管政策、行业供给端变化等对农药及中间体行业的影响；2、上半年"抢出口"等因素带来 的部分公司业绩波动；3、自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司；4、分红派息政策稳健的 能源企业等。 行业动态 投资建议 风险提示 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 《化工行业周报 20250720》20250720 《化工行业周报 20250713》20250714 《化工行业周报 20250706》20250707 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 联系人：赵泰 tai.zhao@bocichina.com 一般证券业务证书编号：S1300123070003 | 本周化 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - "Anti - involution" drives price adjustment expectations, and its realization requires a loose liquidity environment. Since multiple industries promoted "anti - involution", some commodity futures prices have risen, and the spot prices of coking coal and rebar have also increased. The PPI index needs downstream demand, especially fixed - asset investment demand for industrial products, and a relatively loose monetary liquidity environment to reverse the downward trend [2][11]. - The effectiveness of "anti - involution" is more compatible with a steepening yield curve. If price adjustment expectations are realized, overall inflation will stabilize, and future interest - rate cut expectations will decline. The degree of steepening depends on the repair of downstream demand, especially the real estate market [2][13]. - The initial trade agreement between the US and Japan may lead the US to seek a similar agreement with the EU, with a possible 15% tariff on most EU goods. The possibility of an agreement between the two sides has increased, and international trade friction risks have eased to some extent [2][13]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - "Anti - involution" has strengthened price adjustment expectations. As of July 25, coking coal and rebar futures have risen above last December's average. Spot prices of coking coal and rebar also increased in mid - July. The CITIC Futures PPI commodity index has reached last December's average, but reversing the PPI downward trend requires downstream demand and a loose liquidity environment [11]. - A large amount of high - frequency data is provided, including price changes in agricultural products, consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, metals, real estate, and shipping, as well as their week - on - week and year - on - year changes [15][17]. Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends - Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, social retail sales, and export volume [20][30][32]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, PCE, and the Chicago Fed's financial conditions index, as well as the implied prospects of interest - rate hikes or cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [82][84][87]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - Seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented through charts, with indicators mainly showing month - on - month increases [94][98][103]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [142][144][146].

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for July, including companies such as 滨江集团 (Binjiang Group) and 顺丰控股 (SF Holding) as part of the recommended investment portfolio [1] - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a gradual appreciation of the RMB against the backdrop of easing trade policy uncertainties between the US and China, which enhances the competitiveness of Chinese exports [2][6] - The report notes a slight decrease in the overall activity of mergers and acquisitions in the A-share market, with a total of 66 disclosed transactions amounting to 5233.44 billion RMB, indicating a trend towards structural reorganization despite a decrease in the number of major deals [12] - In the nuclear fusion sector, significant advancements have been made in China's nuclear fusion technology, which is expected to benefit from ongoing investments and the development of related industrial chains [13][15] - The report discusses the emergence of a new market for AI Infra catalyzed quartz fiber cloth, with the company 菲利华 (Philips) leveraging its full industry chain advantages to gain a first-mover advantage in the electronics fabric sector [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive outlook for the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, with a significant increase in production and sales, indicating a year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% respectively in the first half of 2025 [1]. - The introduction of solid-state batteries in vehicles, such as the MG4, marks a significant technological advancement, with expectations for increased demand for related materials and equipment [1]. - The photovoltaic (PV) sector is experiencing price increases, driven by government policies aimed at regulating competition and improving product quality, despite some weakness in terminal prices [1][2]. - The report projects an upward revision of domestic PV installation demand for 2025 to a range of 270-300 GW, reflecting a robust growth outlook [1][2]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electric equipment and new energy sector saw a weekly increase of 3.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.67% [10][13]. - The nuclear power sector led the gains with a 3.98% increase, followed by power generation equipment and lithium battery indices [10][13]. Key Industry Information - The report notes a projected retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in July at approximately 1.85 million units, with NEV sales expected to reach 1.01 million units, achieving a penetration rate of about 54.6% [27]. - The National Energy Administration reported a total PV installation of 14.36 GW in June 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 38%, while the first half of 2025 saw a total installation of 212.21 GW, marking a 107% increase [27]. Company Updates - Companies such as Keda Li and Tongwei have announced significant profit forecasts and stock buyback plans, indicating positive financial health and management confidence [29]. - Notable corporate actions include shareholding adjustments and refinancing approvals, reflecting ongoing strategic maneuvers within the industry [29]. Price Observations - The report details price trends in the lithium battery and PV markets, with significant fluctuations noted in raw material costs, particularly silicon and battery components [14][15][24]. - The price of silicon materials has seen a notable increase, with dense silicon prices rising to approximately 50-52 RMB per kg, influenced by government policies and market dynamics [15][21]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain adjustments and regulatory measures in shaping market conditions, particularly in the PV sector, where price stability is being sought amid fluctuating demand [24][25]. - The ongoing adjustments in pricing strategies among manufacturers indicate a cautious yet optimistic approach to market recovery and growth [19][20].

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 7 月 27 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 融资余额持续上行，小盘成长风格占优行情延 续 股票市场概览 ◼ 本周 A 股上涨，港股上涨，美股上涨，其他海外权益市场走势分化。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：成长风格拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史低位；红利 风格拥挤度近期处于历史较低位置。 小盘 vs 大盘：大盘、小盘风格超额净值及拥挤度均处于历史低位。 微盘股 vs 基金重仓：近期微盘股拥挤度上升至历史较高位置；基金 重仓拥挤度及超额累计净值持续处于历史低位。 A 股行情及成交热度 汇率市场 ◼ 近一周在岸人民币较美元升值，离岸人民币较美元升值。 商品市场 ◼ 本周中国商品市场整体上涨，美国商品市场整体上涨。 ◼ 本周领涨的行业为煤炭、钢铁、有色金属；领跌的行业为银行、综合 金融、通信。本周成交热度最高的行业为建筑、钢铁、轻工制造；成 交热度最低的行业为电子、食品饮料、传媒。 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 ◼ 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为房地产、商贸零售、通 信，居后的行业为银行、医药、电子。 利率市场 ◼ 本周中国国债利率上涨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 76.10 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is leveraging its technological advantages to transition quartz fabric from "0 to 1," establishing a first-mover advantage in the emerging AI Infra market. The company is expanding into the electronic fabric sector, supported by its full industry chain capabilities and a strong commitment to core talent through stock incentives, reflecting confidence in future growth [4][9]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve EPS of RMB 1.16, 1.65, and 2.45 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The total market capitalization is approximately RMB 39.74 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 65.4, 46.0, and 31.1 for the same years [6][11]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a growth trajectory with expected revenues of RMB 2,318 million in 2025, RMB 3,366 million in 2026, and RMB 5,052 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 33.1%, 45.2%, and 50.1% respectively [8][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a 60-year history in quartz technology, positioning itself as a leading supplier in aerospace and semiconductor sectors. It is one of the few manufacturers capable of mass-producing quartz fiber, which is critical for the electronic fabric market. The company is actively expanding its production capacity to capture opportunities in this blue ocean market [9][10]. - The stock incentive plan aims to bind 255 core technical and sales personnel, granting 1.6881 million shares at a price significantly below the market price, with performance targets based on net profit growth over the next three years [9][10].

Core Insights - The current industry allocation of the Bank of China multi-strategy system includes Computer (9.6%), Steel (9.2%), Non-ferrous Metals (7.8%), Consumer Services (7.2%), and Banking (6.8) among others, indicating a diversified investment approach across various sectors [1] - The average weekly return of the CITIC primary industries is 3.5%, with the best-performing sectors being Coal (10.5%), Steel (10.2%), and Non-ferrous Metals (9.6%), while the worst performers are Banking (-2.1%), Communication (-0.6%), and Comprehensive Finance (-0.1%) [3][11] - The composite strategy achieved a cumulative return of 3.4% this week, with an annual cumulative return of 16.4%, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark by 1.9% [3] - The highest weight strategy currently is the medium to long-term reversal strategy (S4) at 21.4%, while the lowest is the macro style rotation strategy (S3) at 8.0% [3] - Recent adjustments in positions indicate an increase in upstream cyclical sectors and a decrease in TMT sectors [3] Industry Performance Review - The top three industries in terms of weekly performance are Coal (10.5%), Steel (10.2%), and Non-ferrous Metals (9.6%), while the bottom three are Banking (-2.1%), Communication (-0.6%), and Comprehensive Finance (-0.1%) [11] - The average monthly return over the past month is 7.3%, indicating a positive trend across the industries [11] Valuation Risk Warning - The current PB valuation for the Retail, Automotive, Defense, and Media industries exceeds the 95th percentile of their historical valuations, triggering a high valuation warning [14][15] Strategy Performance - The S1 strategy focusing on high profitability industries shows a weekly excess return of -0.4%, while the S2 strategy tracking unverified sentiment has an excess return of 3.0% [3] - The S4 medium to long-term reversal strategy has the highest weight and has shown significant performance, indicating its effectiveness in the current market environment [3][16] Sector Rankings - The current top three sectors based on profitability expectations are Computer, Non-ferrous Metals, and Steel [17] - The S2 strategy ranks Mechanical, Computer, and Comprehensive as the top sectors based on implied sentiment [20] Macro Style Rotation - The macro style rotation strategy indicates a bullish outlook for Comprehensive Finance, Computer, Media, Defense, Electronics, and Comprehensive sectors based on current macro indicators [24][25]