Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 29.00 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][3]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady growth in its performance, with a 2024 revenue of RMB 3.728 billion, representing an 18.85% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of RMB 528 million, up 19.14% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of RMB 969 million, a 1.48% increase, and a net profit of RMB 204 million, up 2.99% year-on-year. The company has a strong brand presence in the anorectal field and is expected to gain new growth from its health business [3][5]. - The company is expected to see continued growth in its health business, particularly with the launch of new products targeting the anorectal health management market, which is anticipated to enhance brand recognition and sales [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 3.728 billion, with a growth rate of 18.9%. The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 4.204 billion, RMB 4.720 billion, and RMB 5.250 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 12.8%, 12.3%, and 11.2% [7]. - The net profit for 2024 was RMB 528 million, with a growth rate of 19.1%. The projected net profits for the following years are RMB 616 million, RMB 714 million, and RMB 798 million, with growth rates of 16.6%, 16.0%, and 11.7% [7]. Valuation - The report slightly adjusts the profit forecast, estimating the net profit for 2025-2027 to be RMB 616 million, RMB 714 million, and RMB 798 million, respectively. The corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.43, RMB 1.66, and RMB 1.85. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for these years are expected to be 20.3, 17.5, and 15.7 times [5][7]. Market Position - The company has a strong foothold in the anorectal market, with significant brand advantages. The health sector is anticipated to provide new growth opportunities, particularly through the introduction of innovative products and enhanced market coverage [3][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][23] Core Insights - The domestic cultural tourism market is returning to short-distance leisure travel as the main focus during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a high proportion of family-oriented spending and the integration of culture, sports, and tourism driving consumption [1][3] - The cross-border travel market remains robust and is expected to continue its strong performance [1][3] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism - During the Dragon Boat Festival, 119 million domestic trips were made, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with total spending reaching 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year [7][10] - The average spending per trip was 359.08 yuan, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year [7] - The short holiday period led to a focus on local and nearby travel [7] Cultural and Sports Integration - The overlap of the Dragon Boat Festival and Children's Day significantly boosted family-oriented travel, with family orders accounting for 25% of total travel orders and an 80% increase in bookings for family group tours [13][14] - Events like the Jiangsu City Football League and the South China Dragon Boat Race catalyzed tourism consumption, with various promotional activities driving visitor numbers to local attractions [14] Cross-Border Travel - A total of 5.907 million people entered and exited the country during the holiday, with an average of 1.969 million daily, marking a 2.7% year-on-year increase [15] - The number of foreign visitors entering under visa-free policies rose by 59.4% year-on-year [15] - Popular outbound destinations included Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia [15] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with strong resources and operational capabilities, such as Lingnan Holdings, Zhongxin Tourism, Changbai Mountain, Huangshan Tourism, and Songcheng Performing Arts [3][16] - Hotel brands benefiting from business travel recovery include Junting Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and Shou Travel Hotel [3][16] - The growth in cross-border travel is expected to boost airport duty-free sales, with recommendations for China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [3][16]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery but still in the contraction zone[1] - The new orders index for May is at 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, highlighting external demand's contribution to manufacturing recovery[1][5] - The production index rose to 50.7%, a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone[1][5] Supply Chain and Inventory - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating inventory adjustments in response to demand changes[1][5] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stable delivery times despite the overall supply chain pressures[1][5] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, with significant growth in computer and communication equipment exports, where the export orders index exceeded 10% growth[2][9] - The electrical machinery and specialized equipment sectors saw export order indices increase by over 10% in May, indicating strong external demand recovery[2][9] Risks and Outlook - There are concerns regarding the potential for increased recession risks in major overseas economies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties[3][17]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a weakening in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with a notable increase in the sales decline for the top 100 real estate companies in May [1][7] - New home transaction area shows a narrowing month-on-month increase and a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month and shows an expanding year-on-year decline [1][7] - The inventory of new homes and the de-stocking cycle have both increased month-on-month, while showing a year-on-year decrease [1][7] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of May 24 to May 30, new home transaction area increased by 6.4% month-on-month but decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a total of 276.7 million square meters transacted across 40 cities [19][24] - The transaction area for second-hand homes decreased by 10.9% month-on-month and 11.3% year-on-year, totaling 179.2 million square meters across 18 cities [47][54] - New home inventory in 12 cities reached 8,789 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.6% [41][48] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transacted across 100 cities was 1,003.1 million square meters, down 34.7% month-on-month and 27.0% year-on-year, while the total land price increased by 53.6% month-on-month to 25.64 billion [61][66] - The average land price per square meter was 2,556.1 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 135.1% and a year-on-year increase of 94.5% [61][66] 3. Policy Overview - Local policies have been introduced to stimulate housing consumption, including measures such as reducing down payment ratios and tax exemptions for housing transactions [3][98][99] - Specific initiatives include the implementation of a "trade-in" model for housing and the expansion of housing provident fund usage [3][99] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, companies with strategic changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand market [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [5] Core Insights - Seanergy's Q1 revenue and net profit declined year-on-year, while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) surged by 30.68%, marking the second-largest weekly increase in history [2][12] - Domestic passenger fuel surcharges for air travel have been reduced, and Beijing Daxing Airport's cumulative import and export volume has exceeded 100 billion yuan [2][14] - Aneng Logistics reported Q1 revenue of 2.587 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while SF Airlines launched its first fifth freedom cargo route [2][19] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - Seanergy's Q1 revenue was $2.4206 million, down 36.8% year-on-year, with a net loss of $6.829 million [2][12] - The SCFI increased to 2,072.71 points, up 30.68% week-on-week, driven by significant price hikes in major routes [2][13] - Domestic air travel fuel surcharge adjustments took effect on June 5, 2025, potentially boosting passenger willingness to travel [2][14] - Daxing Airport's cumulative import and export volume reached 102 billion yuan, highlighting its growing role in international trade [15] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air cargo prices showed a stable trend in May 2025, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 4,444 points, down 10.3% year-on-year [23] - Domestic cargo flight operations decreased by 1.67% year-on-year in April 2025, while international flights increased by 25.08% [31] - The SCFI reported a week-on-week increase of 30.68%, while the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 5.74% [38][41] 3. Company Performance - Aneng Logistics achieved Q1 revenue of 2.587 billion yuan, with a net profit of 228 million yuan, reflecting a 15.8% year-on-year increase [19][20] - SF Airlines launched its first international cargo route to Canada, enhancing its global logistics network [21] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the industrial goods export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy, and Huamao Logistics [3] - It also highlights investment opportunities in low-altitude economy sectors and cruise shipping [3]

Core Viewpoints - The market in June is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with large-cap stocks likely to see a recovery. Domestic demand momentum is anticipated to improve marginally, while April's industrial profits continued to show a recovery trend but experienced a decline in both volume and price. The cost decline was the main driver of profit growth in April. PMI data for May indicates a slight recovery in domestic production demand compared to April. It is expected that growth-stabilizing policies will be implemented alongside resilient external demand, and the trend of weak inventory replenishment is likely to continue in the second quarter. However, global trade policies remain uncertain, compounded by concerns over rising US debt rates, which may pressure market sentiment in the short term. In June, various growth-stabilizing policies are expected to accelerate, maintaining a cautious and oscillating market environment. Key areas to watch for a breakthrough include developments in overseas tariffs and the implementation of domestic growth-stabilizing policies in June [4][10][12]. June Stock Recommendations - The June stock selection by the report includes: - SF Express (Transportation) - Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Bairen Medical (Pharmaceuticals) - Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Qingdao Beer (Food and Beverage) - Suochen Technology (Computers) [10][12]. Industry Summaries Transportation Industry: SF Express - SF Express reported a net profit of 2.234 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a steady growth trend. The company achieved a total express volume of 3.56 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with revenue reaching 69.85 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year. The profit growth was primarily driven by the continuous improvement of the product matrix and enhanced service competitiveness. The company also focused on cost control through operational model reforms and network optimization, achieving a gross profit margin of 13.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [12][13]. Chemical Industry: Anji Technology - Anji Technology experienced rapid growth in revenue and net profit in 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by increased market coverage and new product introductions. The gross profit margin for 2024 was 58.45%, with a net profit margin of 29.08%. In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 55.70%, and the net profit margin was 30.96%. The company is seeing a steady increase in its global market share for polishing liquids, with a projected market size growth for semiconductor CMP polishing materials [14][15]. Pharmaceutical Industry: Bairen Medical - Bairen Medical reported rapid growth in revenue and profit in 2024, with significant increases in its three main business segments. The heart valve replacement and repair segment saw a year-on-year growth of 64.28%. The company is expected to maintain high growth rates in 2025, driven by the approval of its first interventional valve product, which offers significant advantages in terms of operation and safety [17][18]. Social Services Industry: Lingnan Holdings - Lingnan Holdings achieved a revenue of 4.309 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.43%, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 116.08%. The company’s travel agency operations and hotel management segments are expected to continue growing, particularly with the recovery of inbound tourism and the expansion of hotel management projects [20][21]. Food and Beverage Industry: Qingdao Beer - Qingdao Beer faced pressure on volume and price in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decline in sales volume of 7.0%. However, the company benefited from a decrease in raw material costs, leading to an improvement in gross profit margins. Future growth is anticipated as restaurant demand recovers, supported by the company's strong brand and distribution network [23][24]. Computer Industry: Suochen Technology - Suochen Technology reported a revenue of 39 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.73%. The company is focusing on enhancing its CAE software capabilities and exploring AI applications in various fields. The engineering simulation software segment has shown significant growth, contributing to an overall increase in the company's gross profit margin [25][26][27].

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Key areas to focus on in June include safety regulation policies, supply chain changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush," the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [1][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of June 1, the average price tracking 100 chemical products showed that 23 products increased in price, 45 decreased, and 32 remained stable. The month-on-month average price changes were 26.73% up, 63.00% down, and 10.27% stable. The products with the highest weekly price increases included hydrochloric acid (up 31% in the Yangtze River Delta) and TDI, while those with the largest decreases included soft foam polyether and liquid chlorine [9][32] Oil and Gas Market - International oil prices have decreased, with WTI crude futures closing at $60.79 per barrel (down 1.20%) and Brent crude at $63.90 per barrel (down 1.36%). The U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.47 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year. Gasoline and distillate demand in the U.S. has increased, with total refined oil demand averaging 19.89 million barrels per day, down 0.2% year-on-year [9][10] Chlorantraniliprole Industry - The chlorantraniliprole industry has experienced capacity damage, with the largest producer, Youdao Chemical, having a production capacity of 11,000 tons. The market supply has significantly reduced, and current inventory levels are low due to previous market conditions. The price for chlorantraniliprole is expected to rise to 250,000-280,000 yuan per ton in the short term [9][10] Acrylic Acid Market - The price of acrylic acid has decreased, with the average market price at 7,050 yuan per ton, down 8.44% from the previous week. Supply has increased due to the resumption of production in Shandong, while downstream demand remains cautious [9][10] Investment Recommendations - As of June 1, the SW basic chemical sector's P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 21.66, at the 58.33% historical percentile. The oil and petrochemical sector's P/E ratio is 10.81, at the 13.47% historical percentile. Key investment themes include the sustained high prices of crude oil, rapid development in downstream industries, and the potential for recovery in demand due to policy support [10][11]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is likely to maintain a "consolidation" phase in June, with large-cap stocks expected to see a recovery [3][12][13] - Domestic demand momentum is anticipated to improve marginally, with April industrial profits continuing a recovery trend, although both volume and price have declined [12][31] - The "barbell strategy" remains effective in the market, but there has been a notable shift towards a "concentration" phenomenon, with profit effects concentrating in the banking sector and small-cap stocks [32][33] Group 2 - The report highlights that the global supply-demand dynamics for chlorantraniliprole may be reshaped due to production capacity disruptions, with prices already entering a rebound phase [38][40] - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are gaining global influence, with significant participation in the 2025 ASCO annual meeting, showcasing advancements in drug development [38][40] - The report emphasizes the accelerating penetration of autonomous delivery vehicles, with costs approaching or even lower than human labor costs, indicating a significant shift in logistics [43][44] Group 3 - The report notes that the AI industry chain remains robust, with strong demand for computing infrastructure and significant advancements in AI applications, particularly in the context of major tech companies [46][48] - The report suggests that the market is currently in a box range, with risk appetite suppressed by fluctuating global trade policies and concerns over U.S. Treasury yields [48] - The report identifies key sectors to watch, including innovative pharmaceuticals, autonomous driving, and stablecoins, which are expected to have strong catalysts for growth [48]

强于大市 化工行业周报 20250602 国际油价、丙烯酸价格下跌，氯虫苯甲酰胺行业 产能受损 今年以来，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，六月份建议关注：1、安 全监管政策、行业供给端变化等对农药及中间体行业的影响；2、上半年"抢出口"等因素带来 的部分公司业绩波动；3、自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司；4、分红派息政策稳健的 能源企业等。 行业动态 风险提示 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 6 月 4 日 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：范琦岩 qiyan.fan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525040001 本周（05.26-06.01）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 23 个品种价格上涨，45 个品种价 格下跌，32 个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中 26.73 ...