金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 纯碱期货上涨核心逻辑：政策预期与供应收缩共振 11月17日纯碱期货2601合约上涨，核心逻辑是政策预期、供应收缩与成本支撑的三重共振。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 政策面是关键推力，市场聚焦11月18日纯碱行业"反内卷"研讨会，产能调控、价格自律等议题引发利好 预期，资金提前布局推升盘面情绪。 供应端收缩信号明确，11月以来宁夏日盛、重庆和友等企业合计245万吨装置检修，后续还有305万吨装置 计划检修，叠加部分企业因成本压力停产，行业产能利用率环比下降，短期供应压力缓解。 2025/11/18 成本端支撑同步发力，11月以来煤炭、天然气价格上涨，推升纯碱生产边际成本，部分现货报价上调形成 联动支撑。 此外，玻璃期货走强带动产业链情绪回暖，资金交投活跃度提升进一步放大上涨趋势。不过需注意，行业 高库存、下游需求疲软的核心矛盾未改，短期上涨仍 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices declined from a high level, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Last week, Shanghai copper showed a trend of declining with reduced positions. The main contract price of Shanghai copper stabilized at around 85,000 yuan, and the decline in open interest also slowed down. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the market sentiment turned cold, and the strong US dollar index pressured copper prices. Additionally, LME copper was at a near - 5 - year high, leading to strong short - term profit - taking intentions among long - position holders. In the second half of the week, the US dollar index retreated after reaching a high, facing some pressure at the 100 mark, corresponding to a sign of copper price stabilization and recovery. On the industrial level, as copper prices declined, downstream purchasing willingness recovered, and the spot premium strengthened. The domestic upstream electrolytic copper production has decreased significantly for two consecutive months. In the medium - to - long - term, macro - easing and supply contraction expectations may continue to support copper prices. In the short term, the support at the 85,000 - yuan mark can be continuously monitored [5][54]. - **Aluminum**: With positive domestic macro - economic conditions and the resurgence of the "anti - involution" expectation, aluminum prices showed strong performance. Last week, Shanghai aluminum showed a trend of rising with increased positions. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum reached above 20,600 yuan, approaching the high in November 2024. At the macro level, the domestic "anti - involution" expectation was strong, and the relatively strong varieties in the third quarter all strengthened again. Industrially, global electrolytic aluminum inventories were at a low level, and the market expected that overseas electrolytic aluminum supply might be restricted by electricity. As aluminum prices strengthened, domestic downstream purchasing willingness declined, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventories slowed down. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the November 2024 high above and the support of the 10 - day moving average below [6][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors After the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of October, the overall US dollar index showed a strong performance, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. Last week, the US dollar index retreated after reaching a high, showing some pressure at the 100 mark, corresponding to the stabilization and recovery of copper prices. The trend of the US dollar index can be continuously monitored [10]. 3.2 Copper - **Volume and Price Trends**: Shanghai copper declined with reduced positions last week, and the main contract price stabilized at around 85,000 yuan. The decline in open interest also slowed down. The US dollar index and market sentiment affected copper prices, and there was a sign of price recovery in the second half of the week [5][54]. - **Copper Ore Shortage**: No specific shortage - related analysis was provided in the text, but only relevant data charts such as copper concentrate port inventory and TC processing fees were presented [26]. - **Electrolytic Copper Stockpiling**: There were data on domestic and overseas electrolytic copper inventories, but no in - depth analysis of stockpiling was provided [28]. - **Downstream Initial - stage**: There was a chart of copper downstream monthly capacity utilization, but no detailed analysis [32]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Volume and Price Trends**: Shanghai aluminum rose with increased positions last week, and the main contract price reached above 20,600 yuan, approaching the high in November 2024. The macro - economic situation and market expectations affected aluminum prices [6][54]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: There were data on bauxite port inventory and alumina price, but no in - depth analysis [42][46]. - **Slowed Destocking of Electrolytic Aluminum**: Global electrolytic aluminum inventories were at a low level, and the market expected overseas supply to be restricted by electricity. As aluminum prices strengthened, domestic downstream purchasing willingness declined, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventories slowed down [6][54]. - **Downstream Initial - stage**: There were data on aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees, and 6063 aluminum rod inventory, but no detailed analysis [48][50][53]. 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the short - term and long - term trends of copper and aluminum prices, as well as the influencing factors from both macro and industrial levels [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view for gold 2512 is to be volatile, the medium - term view is to be volatile, and the intraday view is to be slightly stronger, with a suggestion to wait and see due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance. For copper 2512, the short - term view is to be stronger, the medium - term view is to be strong, the intraday view is to be slightly stronger, and the long - term view is to be bullish because of macro - level easing, mine - end production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: After the Asian session yesterday, the gold price rose and then fell, and New York gold dropped below $4000 again. The short - term dollar index and gold price both declined, and the US stock market also fell, possibly due to short - term liquidity shortages. After the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts decreased, causing the dollar index to strengthen continuously. The short - term dollar index reached a high near the 100 mark and then fell back, which may support the gold price. The gold price has retreated about 10% from its high, and the multi - empty game at the $4000 mark can be continuously monitored [3]. - **Viewpoint and Logic**: The short - term view is to be volatile, the medium - term view is to be volatile, the intraday view is to be slightly stronger, and the reference view is to wait and see. The core logic is the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The copper price fell during the night session yesterday, with the main contract price dropping below 86,000, and the open interest decreased slightly. The short - term copper price fluctuated with the macro - sentiment. During the day, the domestic macro - atmosphere improved, and the copper price rebounded; at night, the overseas macro - atmosphere turned cold, and the copper price fell. The dollar index reached a high near the 100 mark and then fell back, which will support the copper price to some extent. On the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly on Thursday, and the copper price dropped from its high, leading to a slight increase in the downstream's purchasing willingness. In the medium - to - long - term, macro - level easing and supply contraction may continue to support the copper price. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 85,000 mark [4]. - **Viewpoint and Logic**: The short - term view is to be stronger, the medium - term view is to be strong, the intraday view is to be slightly stronger, and the long - term view is to be bullish. The core logic is macro - level easing, mine - end production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the resonance of macro and industrial positives drives the copper price to rise with increasing positions. Since the news of mine - end contraction on September 24th, the copper price has been on an upward trend. Macro - easing and supply contraction provide upward momentum, while high overseas COMEX inventories exert pressure. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $11,000 mark for LME copper [4]. - For aluminum, the improvement in the macro environment and the strengthening of industrial support lead to the increase of aluminum price with increasing positions. Recently, the inventories of electrolytic aluminum and downstream aluminum rods have been decreasing, and the industry also supports the futures price. Attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - Local time from October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues. The macro - market has warmed up, which is beneficial to the non - ferrous sector [9][11]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - The copper price shows an upward trend with increasing positions. The report presents various data such as the price trends of Shanghai and LME copper, the Shanghai - LME ratio, and the long - short positions of COMEX non - commercial traders [13][14][20]. 2.2 Copper Mine Inventory Depletion - The report shows the trends of copper concentrate port inventory and TC processing fees, indicating the situation of copper mine inventory depletion [25][26]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory - Data on domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) are presented, reflecting the inventory situation of electrolytic copper [27][28]. 2.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream is shown, including sectors like refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips [30][32]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - The aluminum price rises with increasing positions. The report shows the price trends of domestic and LME aluminum, the Shanghai - LME ratio, and the premium and discount situations [30][31][34]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - The inventory of bauxite ports and the price of alumina are presented, reflecting the situation of the upstream industrial chain [37][38][44]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Depletion - Data on overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory are shown, indicating the inventory depletion situation of electrolytic aluminum [42][43]. 3.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the processing fees of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are presented, reflecting the situation of the downstream initial segment [45][49][51]. 4. Conclusion - Similar to the core views, for copper, macro - easing and supply contraction drive the price up, while high overseas inventories exert pressure. For aluminum, the macro environment warms up, and the industry provides support, with the price rising with increasing positions [52].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in coal prices is driven by a combination of supply constraints, resilient demand, and expectations for winter stockpiling [1][2]. Supply Side - The Qinhuangdao coal price index reported a price of 680 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3 yuan per ton [1]. - Post-holiday supply factors include rainfall affecting coal production, concentrated maintenance on the Daqin line reducing port shipments, price inversions, and lack of shipping enthusiasm, leading to a significant decrease in coal supply [1]. - The average daily coal intake at nine ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.482 million tons, a 20% decrease compared to the previous cycle [1]. Demand Side - In the first half of October, despite the traditional consumption off-season, southern regions experienced high temperatures, resulting in power plants' daily coal consumption being 15% to 20% higher year-on-year [1]. - Some power plants released demand for replenishment post-holiday, coinciding with shipping disruptions that caused minor imbalances in coal supply and demand, providing support for coal prices [1]. Future Outlook - The upward trend in coal prices is expected to accelerate beyond market expectations in the short term [2]. - As high temperatures in southern regions subside and the market digests the post-holiday demand increase, the sentiment of holding onto coal stocks may weaken, leading to a gradual reduction in price support [2]. - It is anticipated that coal prices will stabilize and trend towards oscillation in late October [2].

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Polyolefins**: PE's current maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up is gradually recovering. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches has decreased this week. Future attention should be paid to the supply rhythm and import offers. The pre - holiday CP settlement price has decreased, and the profit of PDH units has recovered. Attention should be paid to the return of PP units. In terms of demand, there are no bright spots, and there is significant inventory pressure after the holiday. Coupled with new capacity investment, the pressure of inventory accumulation in 01 is large, which limits the upside space [2]. - **Methanol**: The current market's core trading logic revolves around "high inventory + high imports". The port arrival volume remains consistently high, the inventory accumulation is significant, and the trading atmosphere has weakened, resulting in a downward price trend. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although the number of unplanned maintenance units has increased recently, some units are expected to resume production in early October. The inventory pattern in the inland area is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season of downstream industries. In terms of valuation, the overall is in a neutral state. The current futures market is in a game situation, and future focus should be on the emergence of the inventory inflection point [5]. - **Polyester Industry Chain** - **PX**: The domestic PX load remains at a high level. The PTA processing fee is continuously low, new PTA device production is delayed, and multiple PTA units have maintenance plans. The PX supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and there is an expectation of PXN compression. In the short term, PX has weak self - driving force, and the oil price support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **PTA**: The PTA supply is expected to shrink. The short - term downstream start - up remains at a relatively high level, and the PTA basis has been repaired, but the rebound space is limited under the weak expectation. In the short term, PTA has limited self - driving force, and the oil price support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the National Day holiday, the port inventory has increased significantly. The domestic supply remains at a high level, and the supply - demand is gradually weakening. Therefore, the price of ethylene glycol is under pressure [8]. - **Short Fibers**: The short - fiber supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply remains at a high level, and the inventory pressure after the holiday is not significant. It is expected that the short - term support for short fibers is stronger than that of raw materials, but the driving force is limited, and the price will mainly follow the raw materials [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: In October, there is no news of further production cuts for bottle chips. The demand in the fourth quarter is in the traditional off - season. The demand side has limited support for bottle chips. It is expected that bottle chips will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the price will mainly follow the cost side [8]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand growth has great uncertainty, with limited support. The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, and the price driving force is weak. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and the demand side support may be limited. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure after the holiday [9]. - **PVC - Caustic Soda** - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term demand for caustic soda lacks support and tends to be weak, and it can be treated bearishly in the short term. However, there is demand support in the medium and long term, and attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction of PVC is difficult to resolve. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the demand in the peak season is not strong. The cost side provides bottom support. It is expected that the downside space of PVC is limited during the peak season, and attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [10]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased, with declines of - 1.06%, - 0.86%, - 1.56%, and - 1.06% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased, with increases of 20.90% and 121.43% respectively. The spot prices of East China PP fiber and North China LLDPE film decreased, with declines of - 1.04% and - 0.99% respectively [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The PE device start - up rate increased by 1.85% to 81.8%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 2.82% to 44.1%. The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 16.50% to 38.3 (in appropriate units), and the social inventory decreased by 1.93% to 52.5 million tons. The PP device start - up rate increased by 1.4% to 76.6%, the powder start - up rate increased by 4.3% to 35.5%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 18.7% to 61.5. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 5.50% to 52.0, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.58% to 18.7 million tons [2]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 decreased, with declines of - 1.63% and - 0.68% respectively. The MA15 spread increased by 64.71%, and the Taicang basis increased by 9.24%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang decreased, with declines of - 0.36%, - 2.22%, and - 1.23% respectively [5]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.08% to 33.94%, the port inventory increased by 3.42% to 154.3 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 3.89% to 188.3%. The start - up rates of Shanghai - domestic enterprises and Shanghai - overseas enterprises increased by 2.22% and 0.63% respectively. The northwest enterprise sales - production ratio increased by 9.60%, the downstream - external MTO device start - up rate increased by 4.63%, the downstream - formaldehyde start - up rate decreased by 7.22%, the downstream - acetic acid start - up rate decreased by 0.97%, and the downstream - MTBE start - up rate decreased by 0.59% [5]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price Changes**: From October 8th to 9th, the prices of Brent crude oil (December) and WTI crude oil (November) decreased, with declines of - 1.6% and - 1.7% respectively. The price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, and the price of CFR China MX increased by 0.4%. The prices of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR China PX remained unchanged [8]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash - flow Changes**: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, polyester chips, and polyester bottle chips decreased, with declines of - 0.8%, - 0.5%, - 0.6%, and - 0.8% respectively. The cash - flows of POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased, with declines of - 7.9% and - 5.3% respectively. The cash - flow of DTY150/48 increased by 275.0%, and the polyester chip cash - flow increased by 20.3%. The bottle chip processing fee increased by 0.2%, and the bottle chip basis decreased by 70.0% [8]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The MEG port inventory increased by 24.0% to 50.7 million tons, and the arrival expectation decreased by 65.8% to 8.0 million tons. The Asian PX start - up rate decreased by 0.3% to 78.0%, the Chinese PX start - up rate increased by 0.5% to 86.7%, the PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 76.8%, the MEG comprehensive start - up rate decreased by 2.4% to 73.1%, the coal - based MEG start - up rate decreased by 6.3% to 74.4%, the direct - spinning filament start - up rate decreased by 0.4% to 93.5%, the polyester bottle chip start - up rate decreased by 5.8% to 67.8%, the pure - polyester yarn start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 64.2%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate increased by 3.8% to 81%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom start - up rate increased by 6.1% to 70%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang printing start - up rate increased by 5.6% to 76% [8]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the prices of Brent crude oil (November), WTI crude oil (October), CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene decreased, with declines of - 2.7%, - 1.4%, - 1.3%, and - 0.6% respectively. The price of CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7%, the pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 2.2%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread increased by 1.3% [9]. - **Styrene - related Price and Cash - flow Changes**: The price of styrene in East China remained unchanged. The prices of EB2510 and EB2511 decreased, with declines of - 0.2% and - 0.2% respectively. The EB basis (10) increased by 12.5%, the EB10 - EB11 spread increased by 5.0%, the non - integrated EB cash - flow increased by 11.3%, and the integrated EB cash - flow increased by 13.6%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 1.9%, and the EB10 - BZ03 spread increased by 2.7% [9]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.2% to 9.10 million tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 2.2% to 20.19 million tons. The Asian pure benzene start - up rate remained unchanged at 79.0%, the domestic pure benzene start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 79.3%, the domestic hydro - benzene start - up rate increased by 6.8% to 64.0%, the benzene production start - up rate increased by 9.9% to 78.0%, the caprolactam start - up rate increased by 5.7% to 93.8%, the benzene - related start - up rate increased by 4.0% to 74.9%, the styrene start - up rate decreased by 0.2% to 73.2%, the downstream PS start - up rate decreased by 3.4% to 59.1%, the downstream EPS start - up rate decreased by 10.5% to 55.3%, and the downstream ABS start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 70.0% [9]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and East China ethylene - based PVC decreased, with declines of - 1.3% and - 1.0% respectively. The prices of SHS209 and SH2601 decreased, with declines of - 1.8% and - 3.2% respectively. The SH basis increased by - 33.1%, and the SH2509 - 2601 spread increased by 28.9%. The prices of V2509 and V2601 decreased, with declines of - 1.0% and - 1.4% respectively. The V basis decreased by - 0.8%, and the V2509 - V2601 spread increased by 3.3% [10]. - **Export and Profit**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports remained unchanged, and the export profit decreased by 26.3%. The CFR prices of PVC in Southeast Asia and India remained unchanged, the FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC in Tianjin Port increased by 0.8%, and the export profit increased by 323.8% [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry start - up rate increased by 1.6% to 86.8%, the Shandong sample start - up rate increased by 0.6% to 85.6%, the PVC total start - up rate increased by 0.9% to 76.1%, the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 11.2% to - 896.0 yuan/ton, and the northwest integrated profit decreased by 68.9% to 43.3 yuan/ton. The alumina industry start - up rate remained unchanged at 83.7%, the viscose staple fiber industry start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 89.8%, the printing and dyeing industry start - up rate increased by 0.6% to 66.2%. The Longzhong sample profile start - up rate increased by 3.3% to 40.4, the Longzhong sample profile start - up rate decreased by 1.3% to 38.0, and the Longzhong sample PVC pre - sales volume increased by 0.5% to 75.9 million tons [10]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories increased by 14.2% to 19.7 million tons, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong increased by 9.9% to 11.1 million tons, the PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 3.9% to 31.8 million tons, and the PVC total social inventory remained unchanged at 53.5 million tons [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a steady demand but is facing challenges due to high prices suppressing procurement and weak terminal orders [1][14] - The aluminum sector is experiencing a mild recovery with increased operating rates among downstream processing enterprises [2][15] - Gold maintains its appeal as a safe-haven asset despite a slight decrease in price, influenced by geopolitical events and rising U.S. debt [3][16] - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from supply tightening and policy changes, with prices showing an upward trend [4][36] - The antimony market is stabilizing with potential for price recovery due to improved export expectations and domestic production cuts [4][38] - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise as demand from the steel industry increases and supply remains tight [4][39] - Tin prices are supported by strong inventory levels and demand from sectors like AI and photovoltaics [4][40] Summary by Sections 1. Base and Precious Metals Market Overview - Copper prices decreased by 0.08% to $9,760.00 per ton on LME, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.73% to 79,100 yuan per ton [1][14] - Aluminum prices fell by 0.46% to $2,603.00 per ton on LME, with a slight increase in Shanghai aluminum [2][15] - Gold prices decreased by 0.36% to $3,381.70 per ounce, with increased holdings in SPDR Gold Trust [3][16] 2. Base and Precious Metals Fundamental Updates 2.1 Copper - Domestic copper inventory decreased to 125,600 tons, with a forecasted slight drop in operating rates due to weak demand [1][14] 2.2 Aluminum - Operating rates in the aluminum processing sector increased to 59.5%, indicating a mild recovery [2][15] 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset remains despite geopolitical tensions and rising U.S. debt levels [3][16] 3. Minor Metals and Rare Earth Market Overview - Rare earth prices are on the rise due to supply constraints and policy changes, with significant benefits expected for leading companies in the sector [4][36] - Antimony prices are stabilizing with potential for recovery driven by export expectations and domestic production cuts [4][38] - Molybdenum prices are anticipated to rise due to increased demand from the steel industry and low inventory levels [4][39] - Tin prices are supported by strong inventory levels and demand from sectors like AI and photovoltaics [4][40]

Group 1 - The core issue discussed is the contradiction between the apparent improvement in the fundamentals of soda ash, characterized by supply contraction and inventory depletion, and the declining prices observed in the market [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that despite the positive indicators in supply and inventory, market prices for soda ash continue to fall, raising questions about the underlying market dynamics [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy and Economy**: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - **Supply - Demand**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - **Supply - Demand**: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Go long on PX in the event of a price dip and initiate a calendar spread trade [1] - PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA [1] - MEG: Take profit on the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG [1] 2. Core Views - The market is focused on potential supply contractions due to the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, leading to a significant increase in black building materials futures. Polyester performance remains mediocre. The main issue in the polyester industry is insufficient demand [6]. - Crude oil prices have risen significantly, providing strong support for PX valuation. Multiple PX plants are under maintenance, resulting in a decline in domestic operating rates. Overall, the supply - demand situation for PX is tight [6]. - PTA's basis dropped significantly yesterday, but supply in July is slightly tight, still attracting buyers. The calendar spread may face pressure. After the reduction in bottle - chip production, polyester load has dropped to 89%, and PTA supply has increased month - on - month [6]. - There have been significant changes in overseas MEG plants. The overall increase in MEG supply is limited. With coal prices rebounding from the bottom and losses in the ethylene - purchased process, the downside space for MEG prices is limited [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: Naphtha prices rebounded slightly at the end of the session. PX prices declined today, with an August Asian spot trading at $875 and a September Asian spot at $854. The PX valuation closed at $861/ton, down $13 from yesterday [2]. - **PTA**: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Dalian, owned by Hengli, restarted at the end of the month after maintenance in mid - June. A 2 - million - ton PTA plant in South China reduced its load to about 50% due to an incident, expected to last about 4 days [3]. - **MEG**: From June 30 to July 6, the expected arrivals at Zhangjiagang Port are about 68,000 tons, at Taicang Port about 67,000 tons, at Ningbo Port about 15,000 tons, and at Shanghai Port about 0 tons. The total expected arrivals at major ports are about 150,000 tons [3]. - **Polyester**: A direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Ningbo plans to shut down a 30,000 - ton fine - denier hollow staple fiber production line this weekend for about 20 days of technical renovation. Yisheng's polyester bottle - chip plant in Hainan (1.25 million tons) started maintenance on July 1, with the restart time undetermined, while the planned maintenance of a 350,000 - ton plant in Dahua was cancelled. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak today, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 30% by 3:30 pm. The average sales - to - production ratio of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber was 47% by 3:00 pm [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. Historical Sales Data - In June, the average sales - to - production ratio of mainstream direct - spinning filament plants in China was about 97% (calculated based on shipments), down 5 percentage points from the previous month. The sales atmosphere in the filament market was weak in June due to strong costs and weakening demand [5].