1. 公开市场操作 央行 公告称， 1 月 13 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3586 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 3586 亿元，中标量 3586 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 162 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净投放 3424 亿元。 （ * 数据来源： Wind- 央行动态 PBOC ） 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金面收敛势头加剧， D R001 加权平均利率再升超 6bp 至 1.39% 位置。匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上，隔夜报价续攀升至 1.52% ，但供给寥 寥；非银机构以信用债为抵押融入隔夜，报价逼近 1.6% ，成本持续上行。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.64% 。 // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.64% 位置，较上日持平。 （ IMM ） （ * 数据来源： Wind- 国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） （ * 数据来源： Wind- 同业存单 - 发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率涨跌不一，长券较为强势 | | IY | | 24 | | ЗУ | | 54 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

国债期货周报：短线或可博弈反弹 研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号：F3053225 投资咨询证号：Z0015885 目录 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 相关数据追踪 9 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 内容摘要 逻辑梳理：数据方面，本周公布的去年12月CPI、PPI读数整体修复态势延续，但价格指标结构上的分化也并未明显改善。一方面排除 贵金属饰品影响，核心CPI同比修复动能或已出现一定放缓迹象；另一方面，工业品价格走强仍主要体现在中上游的部分行业，集中 度相对较高。值得留意的是，本周光伏行业"反垄断"相关消息似乎也体现出政策层面在供给端"反内卷"的同时，也在避免不合理的上 游原料价格给下游制造业企业经营带来不利影响。 本周债市走势偏弱，年初权益市场较为亢奋对债市构成明显压制。与此同时，市场资金价格先下后上带动不合理降息预期修正以及央 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20260112 2026 年一季度会否出现降准降息？ 2026 年 01 月 12 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 2025 年 12 月 10 日至 11 日召开的中央经济工作会议，为 2026 年的政 策定调。其中财政政策方面提及"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和 支出总量"，货币政策方面提及"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工 具"，而降准降息何时落地成为一季度的博弈点。 观点 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260105-20260109）》 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《转债策略建议控回撤仍为第一要 务》 2026-01-11 2026-01-11 东吴证券研究所 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 降准因素之一：补充季节性的流动性缺口。在 2025 年 12 月 28 日发表 的报告《如何看待 2026 年 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2026-01-12 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《度尽劫波，守候周期 ----2026 年债 券市场展望 》 - 2026.01.05 固收周报 债市利空加速出尽？ ——流动性周报 20260111 l 冲击早来，高点早现 债市"开门黑"的首要因素是风险偏好回升，是"迟早要来"的 冲击。股债翘板回归是迟早要来的，股票的春季攻势来的早一些，债 券就调的早一些；来的猛一些，债券就调的多一些。在前期股涨债跌 后，两者比价已经进入相对平衡状态，如果股票大涨的同时，收益率 上行速度过快和幅度过大，无疑后者对前者也将形成"杀估值"的压 制。因为基本面环境尚未逆转，风险偏好对债券的压制应该是阶段性 的，"迟早要来"，但"来过即可"。 债市"开门黑"的次要因素是货币宽松的缺位，是"虽迟但到" 的错位。年末所公布的央行买债规模依然没有放量，无疑是对债市货 币宽松预期的再次重击。在去年四季度，多数交易性账户将可能出现 的降息看作是"最后出逃"的机会，但是时过境迁，已经大幅上 ...

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固定收益 固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 深度报告 2026 年 1 月 9 日 2026 年财政、货币政策配合 展望 相关研究报告 证券分析师：张鹏 peng.zhang_bj@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300520090001 | 1、财政、货币政策配合与债市的关系 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 2、2026 年财政、货币政策配合整体思路 | 5 | | 3、2025 年我国财政、货币政策配合回顾 | 6 | | 4、2026 年我国需求端政策发力空间分析 | 8 | | 5、2026 年我国财政、货币政策配合展望 | 10 | | 6、我国债市面临的挑战：久期偏好不足 | 12 | | 7、主要结论 | 13 | | 风险提示 | 14 | 证券分析师：肖成哲 （8610）66229354 chengzhe.xiao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300520060005 及对债市影响 财政政策或维持广义赤字率相对于 2025年基本稳定、货币政策有 2次各 10BP 降息空间，或有 1-2 次各 25BP 降准。 《如何看待美债长 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the government bond supply increment is expected to decrease significantly, with a possible rhythm disturbance rather than a trend impact [3] - The current core pressure lies on the demand side, but the demand side is expected to improve recently [4] - The bond market may remain volatile this month, waiting for possible allocation opportunities at the end of the month [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Quarter Government Bond Issuance Plan - **Treasury Bonds**: The issuance plan in Q1 2026 is similar to that of last year. The issuance scale of single - issue treasury bonds has increased this week, but whether it will continue to be large - scale needs further observation. From 2024 - 2025, the single - issue scale of general treasury bonds is usually lower in Q1 and Q4 and higher in Q2 and Q3 [8] - **Local Bonds**: The planned issuance scale in Q1 2026 may be lower than last year. The issuance rhythm is more front - loaded in January, but the planned issuance amount and net financing in February and March are expected to be lower than last year. The term structure of the disclosed areas has been shortened, but the national - level change needs further observation [13][16] 3.2 Past Government Bond Issuance Characteristics - **Rhythm**: In 2025, the issuance of general treasury bonds and special refinancing bonds was front - loaded, and the issuance rhythm of special bonds was slower than expected. This characteristic is expected to continue in Q1 2026 [23][25] - **Term**: In recent years, the issuance term of government bonds has generally lengthened, with the average duration of local bonds increasing from 11.95 years in 2021 to 15.62 years in 2025, and the issuance term of treasury bonds rising from 6.34 years in 2022 to 8.33 years in 2025 [30] 3.3 Supply Pressure as a Disturbance, Long - term Bond Demand as the Core - **Supply**: The government bond increment in 2026 is expected to decrease significantly, with the impact being more about rhythm rather than trend [33] - **Demand**: The demand for long - term bonds was insufficient at the end of 2025, but the demand side is expected to improve recently. The bond market may be volatile in January and is expected to gradually recover after the supply shock at the end of the month [33][35][36]

Market Overview - The bond market showed significant recovery on January 8, with futures and cash bonds strengthening in the afternoon, leading to a rise in government bond futures across the board [1] - The interbank cash bond yield decreased by approximately 2 basis points, while the central bank conducted a net injection of 9.9 billion yuan in the open market [1] Bond Futures Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.37% to 111.00, the 10-year main contract up by 0.15% to 107.79, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.09% to 105.60 [2] - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.39% to 509.26 points, with notable gains in several convertible bonds [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield increasing by 1.45 basis points to 3.470% and the 10-year yield decreasing by 2.16 basis points to 4.147% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields fell significantly, with the 10-year yield down by 5.1 basis points to 2.07% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on various government bonds also decreased, with the 10-year French bond yield down by 3.1 basis points to 3.520% [3] Primary Market Activity - The Export-Import Bank issued financial bonds with yields below market estimates, with the 1.2521-year and 5.5041-year bonds yielding 1.4444% and 1.7827%, respectively [4] - The China Development Bank's 3-year and 7-year financial bonds had yields of 1.6783% and 1.94%, respectively, indicating strong demand [4] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank announced a 99 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with no reverse repos maturing on that day [5] - Short-term funding rates in the Shibor market mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 0.4 basis points to 1.27% [5] Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan Fund emphasized the importance of pure bond funds focusing on stable long-term returns and the transformation of "fixed income +" funds to attract more aggressive capital [6] - CITIC Securities projected that China would remain in a low-interest-rate environment through 2026, with potential downward pressure on long-term bond yields as economic recovery progresses [6] - Shenwan Hongyuan suggested that monetary policy would likely remain generous in 2026, with expectations of 1-2 reserve requirement ratio cuts and one interest rate cut during the year [6]