Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, in the context of geopolitical tensions, specifically the U.S.-Iran conflict, and its impact on prices and market dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Bull Market Characteristics**: The precious metals bull market is entering its later stages, with gold prices expected to rise over 65% and silver over 150% by 2025, marking record increases since 1981 [1][5][6]. 2. **Shift in Driving Logic**: Traditional drivers of gold prices, such as the U.S. dollar and real interest rates, are becoming less relevant. The uncertainty surrounding "Trump 2.0" policies is now a dominant factor, with only about 10% of gold's price increase linked to interest rate expectations [1][4][7]. 3. **Inflation Risks**: The U.S.-Iran conflict is likely to trigger secondary inflation risks, with oil prices potentially exceeding $100 per barrel, which could lead to increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes and similar mid-term price corrections for gold [1][15]. 4. **Supply Chain Disruptions**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in a significant daily oil supply gap of 12-14 million barrels, with over 2,000 ships stranded, impacting global oil supply and shipping costs [1][21][27]. 5. **Insurance Costs**: The cost of shipping insurance has surged, with special war risk premiums reaching $800,000 to $1 million per voyage, deterring many shipping companies from entering high-risk areas [1][24]. 6. **Market Predictions**: Market predictions for gold and silver have been systematically underestimated, primarily due to the unexpected impact of "Trump 2.0" policies, which were not anticipated in previous forecasts [7][10]. Additional Important Content 1. **Historical Context**: The current market dynamics are compared to previous bull markets, particularly noting that silver often outperforms gold in the latter stages of a bull market [2][6]. 2. **Potential Scenarios**: Various scenarios for the U.S. economy and their implications for the gold market are discussed, including hard and soft landings, and the potential for renewed inflation impacting monetary policy [11][14]. 3. **Geopolitical Impact**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to create a complex environment for trend trading, as the unpredictability of policies can lead to rapid shifts in market sentiment [7][19]. 4. **Long-term Bull Market Logic**: Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term logic of the gold bull market remains intact, driven by the eventual return to a declining interest rate environment [17][18]. 5. **Market Behavior**: The behavior of market participants is influenced by historical price patterns, leading to speculative trading based on perceived similarities to past market conditions [10][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, highlighting the evolving dynamics of the precious metals market amid geopolitical uncertainties.

Group 1: Price Information - Platinum futures main contract closing price was 493.1 yuan/g, down 0.88% from the previous value; spot platinum (99.95%) was 485 yuan/g, up 0.21%; platinum basis (spot - futures) was -8.1 yuan/g, down 40.00% [4] - Palladium futures main contract closing price was 361.4 yuan/g, up 1.15%; spot palladium (99.95%) was 356.5 yuan/g, up 0.71%; palladium basis (spot - futures) was -4.9 yuan/g, up 48.48% [4] - London spot platinum was $1919/ounce, down 0.10%; London spot palladium was $1439.07/ounce, up 1.37% [4] - NYMEX platinum was $1918.4, up 0.11%; NYMEX palladium was $1438, up 1.45% [4] - Dollar/CNY central parity rate was 6.9194, down 0.04% [4] - The difference between domestic platinum and London platinum was 10.69 yuan/g, down 25.78%; the difference between domestic platinum and NYMEX platinum was 10.84 yuan/g, down 30.46% [4] - The difference between domestic palladium and London palladium was -0.36 yuan/g, down 222.89%; the difference between domestic palladium and NYMEX palladium was -0.09 yuan/g, down 111.08% [5] - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to palladium was 1.3644, down 0.0280; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.3335, down 0.0197 [5] Group 2: Inventory and Position Information - NYMEX platinum inventory was 541,249 ounces, down 2.34%; NYMEX palladium inventory was 247,765 ounces, down 0.24% [5] - NYMEX total position of platinum was 61,473, down 8.65%; non - commercial net long position of platinum was 16,898, down 4.14% [5] - NYMEX total position of palladium was 15,556, down 3.13%; non - commercial net long position of palladium was -185, up 571.35% [5] Group 3: Core Viewpoint - On March 31, platinum and palladium prices showed a volatile trend. PT2606 rose 0.16% to 493.10 yuan/g, PD2606 rose 0.89% to 361.40 yuan/g [6] - Fed officials' dovish signals and geopolitical factors affected platinum and palladium prices. It is expected that platinum and palladium will likely maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. After the geopolitical situation in the Middle East becomes relatively clear, consider going long on platinum unilaterally at low prices or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy [6]

Price Index Trends - The Business Price Index (BPI) rose significantly in March, reaching 1103 points, a month-on-month increase of 16.4% compared to the end of February[3] - The energy index increased by 25.3%, while the chemical index surged by 32.4%, but the non-ferrous index fell by 9.5% month-on-month[4] Commodity Price Movements - In the week of March 16-20, five energy commodities saw price increases of over 5%, accounting for 35.7% of the monitored items[4] - The average price of coal in the Bohai Rim region increased by 1.7%, while the chemical price index surged by 33.8% month-on-month[5] Real Estate Market - As of March 23, the second-hand housing price indices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 1.0%, 1.8%, 1.4%, and 0.8% respectively[5] - The second-hand housing prices in these cities have seen significant highs over the past year, with peaks recorded at 159.44, 192.67, 181.71, and 251.13 points[6] Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic industry composite index fell by 13.2% in March, with significant declines in prices for battery cells and polysilicon[6] - Lithium carbonate futures prices decreased by 4.9% month-on-month, while DRAM spot prices fell between 5.3% and 8.9%[9] Shipping and Logistics - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 9.0% in the fourth week of March, with significant increases in shipping rates to Los Angeles and New York[7] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased by 5.1% month-on-month, indicating a mixed outlook for shipping costs[8] Food Prices - The average wholesale price of pork fell by 12.7% in March, while key vegetable prices dropped by 10.9%[9] - The price index for non-food items, represented by the ICPI, decreased slightly to 99.67, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.2%[10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and short - term uncertainty is high. Investors should control positions and prevent risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Quotes - International precious metal futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 3.12% to $4699.60 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 6.77% to $75.34 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract rose 1.97% to 1040.82 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 5.18% to 18954 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - On March 31, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 1.143 tons to 1047.276 tons, while the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 14.08 tons to 15274.28 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 3.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 94.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate hike is 1.5% [1]. - Eurozone consumer prices rose 2.5% year - on - year in March, up from 1.9% in February, the highest level since January 2025 [1]. - In February, US job vacancies fell to 6.882 million, slightly lower than the market expectation of 6.89 million, and significantly lower than the revised 7.24 million in January. Recruitment and separation numbers both hit multi - year lows, indicating a cooling labor market [1]. - Trump is willing to end the war when the Strait of Hormuz is not fully open. The US "Bush" aircraft carrier is being deployed to the Middle East. Iran's president said the only way to restore regional order is to stop aggressive attacks, and Iran's foreign minister said Iran will not agree to a cease - fire but demands an end to the war in the entire region [1]. Market Logic - US job vacancies declined in February, and the recruitment speed slowed down significantly. The US and Iran both showed a willingness to end the Middle East conflict, leading to a sharp rise in US stocks. International crude oil prices fell, US bond yields declined, the 2 - year US bond yield fell about 3 basis points to 3.79%, and the US dollar ended a five - day rising trend, falling 0.62% and closing below 100 at 99.88. COMEX gold and silver both rose significantly, with silver rising more. The US president's statement about ending the Iran war in two to three weeks may be a signal of de - escalation, but its credibility depends on subsequent actions. If negotiations break down, market sentiment may reverse quickly, and volatility will remain high [1][2]. Trading Strategy - Due to geopolitical influence, market short - term uncertainty is large. Investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical news is volatile, causing significant price fluctuations in oil, but the overall trend is upward. Attention should be paid to the rhythm [1][2]. - High - and low - sulfur fuel oils are supported by the cost of crude oil and a tightening supply, and are expected to remain at high levels. However, the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - With the increase in domestic temperature, the demand for asphalt is gradually recovering. It is expected that asphalt prices will be strong, but it is necessary to be wary of the short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends [2][3]. - The polyester industry chain fluctuates with the cost side. The market is waiting for further developments in the situation. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - Natural rubber and butadiene rubber show different trends. The price of natural rubber is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly under geopolitical influence [3][5]. - The inventory of methanol is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [5]. - The supply of polyolefins is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - PVC exports will supplement domestic demand. The overall short - selling pressure remains strong, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI May contract closed down $1.50 to $101.38 per barrel, a 1.46% decline; Brent May contract closed up $5.57 to $118.35 per barrel, a 4.94% increase; SC2605 closed at 693.9 yuan per barrel, down 55.4 yuan per barrel, a 7.39% decline. Geopolitical news is volatile, and the overall price center is rising. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 closed down 3.79% at 4446 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 4.11% at 5159 yuan per ton. Geopolitical conflicts have limited direct impact on low - sulfur fuel oil supply, but factors such as the increase in overseas diesel cracking and freight rates have affected the supply. It is expected to remain at a high level, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 closed down 1.53% at 4512 yuan per ton. With the increase in temperature, demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that the overall demand will increase in April, and prices are expected to be strong, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2][3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.24%; EG2605 closed at 5218 yuan per ton, down 2.63%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. The industrial chain has different situations, and it fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 195 yuan per ton to 16345 yuan per ton; NR fell 240 yuan per ton to 13605 yuan per ton; BR fell 375 yuan per ton to 17350 yuan per ton. The production of natural rubber in Thailand in 2025 increased by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The overseas production area is in a low - yield period, and domestic production areas are gradually starting to harvest. The price is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 3365 yuan per ton. The MTO arrival volume is at a low level, and the inventory is starting to decline. The supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases, and the Iranian situation is unclear [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 9000 - 9300 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the prices in East, North, and South China markets decreased. PVC exports will supplement domestic demand, and the overall short - selling pressure remains strong. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Market News - Iran's President Pezeshkiyan reiterated Tehran's willingness to end the war, but on certain conditions. Even if the conflict ends quickly, it will take weeks or months to restore the global energy transportation system [8]. - OPEC's crude oil production in March dropped to the lowest level since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic in June 2020. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels. The U.S. has lifted sanctions on Russian crude oil and promised to release strategic reserves, but these measures can only make up for the supply gap in a limited time [8]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of multiple main contracts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, and others, covering the time range from 2022 to 2026 [10][13][16][19][22][24][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report presents basis trend charts of multiple main contracts, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [27][31][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows spread trend charts of multiple inter - period contracts, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [36][38][42][44][46][48]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides spread and ratio trend charts of multiple inter - variety contracts, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [51][54][56][58]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows production profit and processing fee trend charts of multiple products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [60][61]. Team Member Introduction - **Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute**: Zhong Meiyan, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and providing risk management and investment strategies [65]. - **Director of Energy and Chemical Research**: Du Bingqin, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [66]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, who has won multiple awards, is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [67]. - **Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, has passed the CFA Level 3 exam and combines financial theory with industrial operations [68].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing high-level fluctuations due to the combination of macro factors and supply disruptions [2][3] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate oscillated downward with increased trading volume and showed a position reduction throughout the day. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt volume decreased to 11,318 lots. The difference in open interest between the 2605 and 2609 contracts has narrowed to only 10,000 lots. The SMM average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the spot market is 164,500 yuan/ton. As prices fall, upstream lithium salt producers are more reluctant to sell, while downstream material manufacturers' procurement has not significantly improved. Inquiries are active, but transactions are somewhat light [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, raw material prices were divided. The CIF price of spodumene concentrate in China slightly increased, while the domestic spot price slightly decreased. The SMM operating rate continued to rise to 56.57%, and the total output increased to 24,814 tons, with overall supply steadily increasing [3] - **Demand**: Ternary lithium iron phosphate continued the trend of increasing production and inventory. Energy storage cells had strong production and sales and low inventory, presenting a structural highlight. The intensive release of new models from March to April is expected to drive a marginal improvement in demand [3] - **Inventory**: Last week, the SMM four - region social inventory decreased to 39,300 tons. The sample weekly inventory increased to 99,500 tons in a cumulative manner but remained at a relatively low level. The total inventory days increased to 27.9 days. Structurally, upstream and downstream enterprises increased inventory, while traders reduced inventory [3] Macro - policy Analysis - **International**: The 15% temporary tariff policy of the US White House is still within the window period, which is a phased positive for demand. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to cause disruptions, but Trump has signaled the end of the war, and macro uncertainties still exist [3] - **Domestic**: The comprehensive utilization management method for new - energy vehicle power batteries will long - term optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center. The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and the Central Economic Work Conference support the long - term balance of supply and demand. The 2026 government work report mentioned zero - carbon parks/factories, which are expected to become the second growth curve for energy storage [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the prices of various commodities. The market is highly sensitive to the progress of the cease - fire negotiations and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea [3][4]. - Different sectors have different market trends. For example, in the oil product sector, the prices are affected by supply - demand relations and geopolitical factors; in the chemical industry, the prices are influenced by policies, supply - demand, and cost factors; in the non - ferrous metal sector, the prices are supported by cost and demand factors [3][5][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Logic: The intention of the US and Iran to cease the war has led to a decline in rising oil prices. - Fundamental: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the global crude oil supply is generally tight. Incidents in Ukraine and the Red Sea have further aggravated supply concerns. - Macro: Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have risen, and market sentiment has improved with the easing of the geopolitical situation [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - Logic: The fundamentals provide support, and the downward space for cracking is limited. - Fundamental: High - sulfur fuel oil has strong fundamental support, and the supply is still tight in April. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a tight supply - demand balance, and the supply - side tightening support is strong [5][6]. 3.1.3 LPG - Logic: Geopolitical factors cause repeated disturbances, and there is still support in the short term. - Fundamental: Although the price has decreased due to the US's cease - fire intention, the supply is expected to be tight in the medium term, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [7]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - Logic: Pay attention to geopolitical progress and downstream negative feedback. - Fundamental: The futures price has risen, the spot market has a general trading atmosphere, the supply load has increased, and the demand load has decreased. The mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have increased production cuts [8][9]. 3.3 Coal Chemical Industry 3.3.1 Urea - Logic: Policy and supply - demand are in a stalemate, and the price is in a high - level consolidation. - Fundamental: The market price is relatively stable, the supply is at a high level, the demand is stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [10]. 3.3.2 Methanol - Logic: The tense geopolitical relationship between the US and Iran makes the short - term import shortage difficult to solve, supporting high - level operation, but the risk of chasing high prices is increasing. - Fundamental: The price is in a high - level shock, the port price has declined, and the basis is still strong. The short - term import shortage will support the high - level operation of the price, but attention should be paid to the risk of the reversal of the bullish logic [11]. 3.4 Salt Chemical Industry 3.4.1 Soda Ash - Logic: The rigid demand is weakening, and the supply - demand pressure is large. - Fundamental: The price is weakly stable, the inventory has changed from destocking to stockpiling, and the supply - demand contradiction will continue to increase. The rebound needs supply - side production cuts, but the production - cut drive is not clear [12]. 3.4.2 Glass - Logic: Both supply and demand are weak, and production cuts continue. - Fundamental: The short - term market sentiment is weak, the supply is decreasing, and the market is in a game between low supply and weak demand. In the medium term, the cost pressure has increased, and the support of low supply for the spot price will increase after the demand out of the off - season [13][14]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - Logic: The spot price is loosening, and the export end shows signs of weakening. - Fundamental: The short - term spot price shows a marginal weakening trend, the export demand still has support, but attention should be paid to the price decline risk if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened [15]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The upstream mine has disturbances, the processing fee is at a low level, the demand is growing structurally, the inventory is in a state of destocking in some places, and the long - term demand for new energy transformation is beneficial [16]. 3.5.2 Gold - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The monetary policy outlook is uncertain, the Middle East conflict has an impact on inflation and the US dollar index, and the weakening of the US dollar index may drive the rise of the gold price [18]. 3.5.3 Silver - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The market focus is on the Middle East situation and the Fed's interpretation of inflation expectations, and the price trend is full of uncertainties [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The geopolitical situation is unclear, and the market is in a fierce tug - of - war between bulls and bears. Crude oil is mainly in high - level volatility. [3][4] - Stock index: The short - term volatility is large. Consider interval operations to seize stage - up opportunities. [5] - Gold: Given the unclear short - term driving factors and high price volatility, wait for clear catalysts at the macro or geopolitical level. [6][7] - Silver: The current price fluctuates extremely violently. Pay close attention to energy prices and global manufacturing PMI data. [8] - Rubber: The Shanghai rubber main contract may have certain support around 16,000 yuan/ton and show a fluctuating trend. [10] - Plastic: It is expected that plastics will fluctuate in a relatively strong range in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. [11] - Methanol: Methanol may continue the high - level fluctuation trend. Pay close attention to the spring maintenance intensity, geopolitical situation progress, and port inventory changes. [13] - PTA: In the short term, continuously pay attention to geopolitical disturbances, and the recovery of downstream demand is still the key. [14] - Ethylene glycol: The ethylene glycol market is currently strongly supported by supply contraction and stable demand. The short - term focus is on cost - side price disturbances under geopolitical factors. [15] - Soda ash: The futures price may enter a bottom - range fluctuation state. Adopt a bottom - range fluctuation thinking in the short term. [16] - Glass: The glass market is expected to continue the interval - fluctuation trend. Adopt an interval - fluctuation thinking in the short term. [18] - Corn: Corn is under pressure to correct in the short term. Pay attention to the support around 2,350 yuan/ton. [19][20] - Peanut: The main peanut contract fluctuates in a wide range. Operate cautiously. [21] - Cotton: Cotton is in high - level volatility. Operate cautiously. [22] - Soybean meal: Soybean meal may be weakly volatile in the short term. [23] - Soybean oil: The biodiesel policy is about to be implemented. Operate cautiously. [24] - Rapeseed meal: For the RM2605 contract, be vigilant against price fluctuation risks in the short term and focus on risk prevention and control. [25] - Rapeseed oil: The OI05 contract may be mainly in shock adjustment in the short term. Pay attention to risk prevention and control. [26] - Live pigs: The spot price is initially stable. Wait for policy signals and operate cautiously. [27] - Eggs: Pay attention to the breeding side's replenishment and elimination in the medium and long term. [29] - Shanghai copper: The sentiment has improved. Conservative investors wait for definite signals, while aggressive ones can participate at an appropriate time. [30] - Shanghai aluminum: Operate cautiously and wait and see in the short term. [31] - Alumina: The expectation of oversupply remains unchanged, and there is still upward pressure. [32] - Cast aluminum alloy: The price is strongly correlated with Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to the marginal changes in cost and demand. [33][34] - Lithium carbonate: Wait for opportunities to buy at low prices or enter the market after a breakthrough. [35] - Industrial silicon: Cost support is dominant. There may be no trending market in the short term. Wait and see for the time being. [36] - Polysilicon: The trading is sluggish with large fluctuations. It is not recommended to participate for now. [37] - Stainless steel: Affected by macro - sentiment, it fluctuates in the short term. [38] - Rebar: The market sentiment is strong, and steel products fluctuate strongly. [39][40] - Hot - rolled coil: The market sentiment is strong, and steel products fluctuate strongly. [41] - Iron ore: Iron ore may fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory accumulation and demand recovery rhythm. [42] - Coking coal and coke: They may maintain a fluctuating pattern in the short term. Pay attention to the actual purchasing power of steel mills, coal mine capacity release, and policy implementation. [43][44] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The US - Iran conflict is in a state of "talking while fighting". The uncertainty of geopolitics disturbs the crude oil and chemical sectors, and the energy - chemical sector remains strong before the crisis is completely resolved. The resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the safety of Middle - East oil and gas facilities are the main influencing factors [3]. - Market analysis: The change in the Gulf situation affects the futures market in real - time. The energy - chemical prices are in high - level volatility. If there is no further attack on oil and gas and the Strait of Hormuz is opened orderly, the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated [3]. Stock Index - Macro information: The market is in an environment with internal support and external pressure. The internal support comes from the improvement of macro - economic data and policy tone, while the external pressure is from the Middle - East conflict [5]. - Market analysis: On March 31, the A - share market declined across the board. Funds flowed from the technology - growth sectors to the large - cap blue - chip sectors. [5] Gold - Macro and geopolitics: The Fed maintained the interest rate in March, with only one expected rate cut this year. The Middle - East conflict continues, and the prospect of a cease - fire negotiation is unclear [6]. - Market analysis: On March 31, the spot gold price rebounded slightly. High oil prices strengthen the Fed's "higher - for - longer" stance, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, if the Middle - East situation escalates, the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset may increase [6][7]. Silver - External price: The spot silver price has experienced sharp adjustments and rebounded on March 31. The inventory data shows a tight fundamental situation [8]. - Market analysis: The silver market is in a game between macro - suppression and fundamental support. High energy prices may suppress the price, while low inventory and industrial demand may support it [8]. Chemical Industry Rubber - Market price: The prices of various types of rubber and raw materials are provided [9]. - Market analysis: Due to the off - season of rubber tapping, high raw material prices, and the rising price of BR synthetic rubber, the downside space of Shanghai rubber is limited. Pay attention to domestic rubber - tapping, downstream start - up, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, and BR rubber premium [10]. Plastic - Spot information: The spot prices in different regions have declined [11]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, the demand is at a low level, and the inventory is at a certain level. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level and is affected by geopolitics and oil prices [11]. Methanol - Spot information: The spot prices in different regions show different trends [12][13]. - Market analysis: The futures price has declined. The port inventory is decreasing, the domestic supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is recovering. The international situation may lead to a structural adjustment in methanol trade [13]. PTA - Spot information: The spot price has decreased, and the basis has also changed [14]. - Market analysis: The PTA industry's operating rate is at a high level, but the downstream polyester industry's sales are sluggish. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The spot price has decreased, and the basis has changed [15]. - Market analysis: The domestic production has decreased, the port inventory is declining, the expected arrival volume is low, and the polyester industry's high - level operation supports the demand. The short - term focus is on cost - side price disturbances [15]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The mainstream prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased, the factory inventory is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is increasing. The demand is weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [16]. Glass - Spot information: The prices in different regions are stable [17][18]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased slightly, the factory inventory is decreasing, and the terminal demand in the peak season may support the market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: The purchase prices in different regions are provided [19]. - Market analysis: The USDA report shows an increase in global corn production and inventory. The domestic supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [19]. Peanut - Spot price: The peanut price is mostly stable, with a decline in the Northeast. The supply is tight in the short term, and the demand is slightly boosted, but the price may decline later [21]. - Market analysis: The peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and oil - mill procurement mentality [21]. Cotton - Spot information: The spot prices at home and abroad have changed, and the basis and price difference have also changed [22]. - Market analysis: The international cotton price is rising. The domestic supply is expected to decrease, the demand has some resilience, and the commercial inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot price is continuously decreasing [23]. - Market analysis: The market is waiting for the US soybean planting intention report. The cost support is weakening, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the inventory may increase in the future [23]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: The spot price has slightly increased [24]. - Market analysis: Globally, it is affected by the Middle - East conflict and biodiesel policy. Domestically, it is about to enter the off - season. Pay attention to the situation of the US - Iran conflict and the implementation of the biodiesel policy [24]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The basis price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: The US soybean market has no obvious driving factors, waiting for the biodiesel policy. The relaxation of regulations on Brazilian soybeans suppresses the market sentiment. Pay attention to geopolitical conflicts [25]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The basis price is stable [26]. - Market analysis: Brazilian biodiesel producers have the ability to support a higher blending ratio. The supply of non - GMO rapeseed oil is tight. Pay attention to the Middle - East situation, crude - oil trend, and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy [26]. Live Pigs - Spot market: The price is stable in general, with a slight increase in Henan [27]. - Market analysis: The supply is slowing down, the demand is in the off - season, and the policy of purchasing and storing is expected to increase. The spot price is initially stable, and pay attention to the reversal signal [27]. Eggs - Spot market: The price is rising steadily [28]. - Market analysis: The supply pressure of new - laying hens is small, the egg - laying hen inventory is declining, the demand is affected by seasonal factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the long - term supply - side changes [29]. Metals Shanghai Copper - Spot information: The spot price has increased [30]. - Market analysis: The domestic inventory is in the destocking cycle, but the global inventory is high. The copper - smelting industry is under pressure, and the price is supported by domestic destocking and new - energy demand but restricted by high inventory and smelting losses [30]. Shanghai Aluminum - Spot information: The spot price has increased [31]. - Market analysis: The attack on Middle - East aluminum factories has increased the price. The domestic supply is rigid, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The price is supported in the short term but may be under pressure in the long term [31]. Alumina - Spot information: The average price has increased slightly [32]. - Market analysis: The supply is expected to be excessive due to the increase in production, the demand is mainly for rigid procurement, the import and export have no arbitrage space, and the inventory has increased [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The average price is stable [33]. - Market analysis: The cost provides some support, the supply is in a state of over - capacity, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is correlated with Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to cost and demand changes [33][34]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have decreased [35]. - Market analysis: The social inventory is at a low level, the supply is expected to decrease, the demand from energy - storage batteries is increasing, and the profit is differentiated. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and pay attention to future supply and demand changes [35]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The market prices of different grades are provided [36]. - Market analysis: The supply is decreasing due to cost pressure, the inventory is high and difficult to destock, the demand is weak, and the price is supported by cost. Pay attention to the resumption of production of leading factories and the implementation of emission - reduction policies [36]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types have decreased [36][37]. - Market analysis: The market is under the triple pressure of high inventory, deep losses, and serious supply - demand imbalance. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and pay attention to inventory destocking and policy intervention [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The spot price is stable [37]. - Market analysis: The adjustment of Indonesian nickel - mine quotas drives the price up, but the weak terminal demand and high inventory may suppress the upward space. The price may fluctuate in the short term [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The spot price is stable [39]. - Market analysis: Affected by domestic policy expectations and overseas macro - factors, the price is in a strong - basis regression and fluctuates strongly. The supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is decreasing, and the cost has resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [39][40]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The spot price is stable [41]. - Market analysis: Affected by domestic policy expectations and overseas macro - factors, the price is in a strong - basis regression and fluctuates strongly. The supply is at a high level, the demand is slightly decreasing, the inventory is slightly decreasing, and the cost has resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The prices of different types of iron ore show different trends [42]. - Market analysis: The iron - ore market is in a game between short - term geopolitical premium support and medium - term supply - demand relaxation. The price is pressured by high inventory but pushed up by policy disturbances. The supply is expected to be loose in the long term, and the demand is recovering slowly. The price may fluctuate in the short term [42]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price index of coking coal has decreased, and the average price of first - class metallurgical coke is stable [43]. - Market analysis: For coking coal, the supply is increasing but restricted by inventory, the demand is elastic, and the price is affected by energy prices and supply - demand. For coke, the supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by coking - coal price and geopolitical factors. They are expected to fluctuate in the short term [43][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - With the supply pressure from the rubber tapping season and the support from high overseas costs and geopolitical events boosting synthetic rubber, the subsequent rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the conflict between the United States and Iran [1]. Polyolefins - The pricing power returns to hedging merchants, the basis strengthens, and the transaction volume increases. PP and PE continue to see a reduction in supply and an increase in demand. PP is destocking, while PE inventory is accumulating. In April, it is expected that the spot market will tighten and the basis will strengthen, driven by the "strong cost + reduced supply" logic [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is weak. The cost - end support has weakened, but the downside space is expected to be limited. It is generally viewed as oscillating, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1,150 - 1,250. Short positions can be held. - For glass, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased, the demand is sluggish, the cost support has weakened, and there is still inventory - removal pressure. It is also viewed as oscillating. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has generally declined. The market is affected by the weakening of geopolitical risk premiums and concerns about high - price demand suppression. It is expected to be in a weak - oscillating pattern, but the supply shortage still provides fundamental support. Attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the futures are weakly oscillating, the supply has increased slightly, the inventory has accumulated, and the downstream demand increment is less than expected. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. - For PVC, the futures have fallen significantly, the export demand is poor, the market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price has a strong bottom support. It may be weakly adjusted in the short term [5]. Urea - The urea futures are weakly oscillating, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased slightly, the inventory is at a relatively low level, but the supply is still loose. The demand is in a transition period, and the market lacks clear upward or downward drivers. It is expected to continue narrow - range consolidation, with the main contract focusing on the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading theme is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillating pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. Attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern, with a short - term tight - balance supply - demand situation. The supply side is expected to see an increase in far - month imports, while the demand side is generally positive, but the MTO profit is weakening. Two major risks need to be watched: geopolitical easing and continuous compression of MTO profit [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, the demand is expected to improve, and the short - term price may fluctuate with the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see, and shrink the EB05 - BZ05 spread when it is high. - For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening slightly, but the supply - demand situation is still tight. The short - term absolute price fluctuates with the oil price, and the same strategy as for pure benzene is recommended [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply - demand is weak in the short term, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and the price has support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the oil price trend. - For PTA, the short - term self - driving force is limited, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. The same strategy as for PX is recommended. - For ethylene glycol, the cost support is strong, the supply is expected to decline significantly in the second quarter, and the price has upward momentum. However, attention should be paid to the risk of a pull - back. - For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weakening, and it mainly fluctuates with raw materials. The same strategy as for PX is recommended, and the PF processing margin can be expanded at a low level below 800. - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and the processing margin is expected to be strong. The PR unilateral strategy is the same as for PTA, and the main - contract processing margin is expected to be strong [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of most natural rubber varieties have declined slightly, with the Yunnan Guofu full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai dropping 0.31%, and the Thai standard mixed rubber price falling 0.63%. The basis of full - latex has increased, and the non - standard price difference has also increased [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased by 4.70%, the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 8.44%, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 120.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand in January increased by 11.09%, while that in Indonesia and India decreased. The tire export volume in February decreased by 12.40%, and the natural rubber import volume decreased by 28.46%. The inventory in the bonded area increased by 0.85%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 9.23% [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined, with the L2605 closing price dropping 2.16%. The L59 spread, PP59 spread, and LP05 spread have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Data**: The PE device operating rate has decreased by 4.79%, the downstream weighted operating rate has increased by 5.75%. The PE enterprise inventory has increased by 3.45%, and the social inventory has decreased by 6.58%. The PP enterprise inventory has decreased by 16.19%, and the trader inventory has decreased by 8.18% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass and soda ash are stable. The glass 2605 contract has dropped 2.02%, and the soda ash 2605 contract has dropped 2.49%. The 05 basis of glass and soda ash has increased [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash production capacity utilization rate has decreased by 5.22%, and the weekly production has decreased by 5.22%. The float - glass daily melting volume has decreased by 0.62%, and the photovoltaic glass daily melting volume has decreased by 2.28%. The glass factory inventory has decreased by 1.09%, and the soda ash factory inventory has decreased by 0.10% [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The main LPG contract PG2605 has dropped 4.04%, and the PG05 - 06 and PG05 - 07 spreads have decreased. The South China spot price has decreased by 0.28%, and the deliverable spot price has decreased by 1.24% [4]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio has decreased by 4.34%, the port inventory has increased by 0.68%, and the port storage capacity ratio has increased by 0.67%. The upstream - main refinery operating rate has decreased by 3.54%, and the downstream - PDH operating rate has decreased by 3.09% [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda has decreased by 4.3%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - method PVC has decreased by 3.9%. The SH2605 and V2605 contracts have also declined [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate has increased by 0.8%, and the PVC total operating rate has increased by 1.0%. The alumina industry operating rate has increased by 0.1%, and the Longzhong sample PVC pipe operating rate has increased by 5.1% [5]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The urea futures are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The main contract has dropped 2.71%. The 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 spreads have changed [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production has decreased by 0.36%, the production capacity utilization rate has decreased by 4.17%, and the factory - warehouse inventory has decreased by 13.40% [6]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude has dropped 3.18%, WTI crude has dropped 1.46%, and SC crude has dropped 1.80%. The Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 spreads have increased [7]. - **Refined Oil Products**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have all declined. The refined - oil cracking spreads in the United States, Europe, and Singapore have also decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices have declined, with the MA2605 closing price dropping 2.71%. The MA59 spread has decreased by 3.90%, and the MTO05盘面 profit has increased by 44.94% [9]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The methanol enterprise inventory has decreased by 10.71%, the port inventory has decreased by 8.42%, and the social inventory has decreased by 9.05%. The upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate has increased by 1.74%, and the downstream - external - procurement MTO device operating rate has increased by 10.42% [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude and WTI crude have changed. The price of pure benzene and styrene has declined. The EB05 - BZ05 spread has increased by 4.6% [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased by 3.3%, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased by 4.6%. The domestic pure benzene operating rate has increased by 6.4%, and the styrene operating rate has decreased by 0.7% [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed. The prices of PTA, MEG, and polyester products have also fluctuated [11]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The MEG port inventory has increased by 3.5%, and the arrival expectation has decreased by 33.3%. The Asian PX operating rate has decreased by 2.8%, and the PTA operating rate has increased by 3.6% [11].

Report Overview - The report is titled "40 Key Questions in the Oil, Gas, and Shipping Markets under the Strait Blockade" and is published by the Energy and Chemicals Group of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute on April 1, 2025 [1] 1. Crude Oil: Supply Gap and Price Projection under Strait Blockade 1.1 Supply Loss - The total pre - blockade daily export of various oil products through the Strait of Hormuz was about 20 million barrels, with crude oil accounting for about 15 million barrels. The direct loss of crude oil exports due to the blockade was 14.5 million barrels per day [7] - Even if Saudi Arabia and the UAE fully utilized their pipeline and port diversion capabilities, there was still a potential crude oil export gap of about 10.5 million barrels per day [8] 1.2 Supply Increase from Strategic Reserves and Sanction Relief - The IEA's 32 member countries released 400 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil products. The actual supply increase from the release of reserves was estimated to be up to 1.2 million barrels per day [11] - The combined floating storage of Russian and Iranian crude oil could provide a supply increase of about 1.2 million barrels per day within a month [11] 1.3 Production Shutdown - By the fourth week of the US - Iran conflict, the estimated reduction in Middle - Eastern crude oil production was about 10 million barrels per day, resulting in an 8 - million - barrel - per - day decline in March [12] 1.4 Refining Capacity Decline - As of the end of March, the global refining capacity decline was about 4.6 million barrels per day. If the blockade continued throughout April, the loss could exceed 7 million barrels per day [14] 1.5 Price Projection - Based on the Brent average price of $71 per barrel in February 2026, the report estimated the price increase under different blockade durations. For example, if the blockade lasted for 4 weeks, the Brent price could reach $78 (conservative), $82 (neutral), and $85 (optimistic) [17] 1.6 Arbitrage and Pricing - The core of the price difference between SC and international crude oil is freight, followed by product quality and regional price premiums. After the blockade, Brent and SC have decoupled from traditional Middle - Eastern Dubai/Oman medium - sour crude [18] - In the short - term, the monthly spread of crude oil was at a high level. The report recommended considering long positions in distant - month contracts such as 06, 07, and 08 [21] 1.7 Short - Selling Strategy - The report suggested short - selling Brent dec26 or the Brent main contract and holding the position for 6 - 12 months until the end of the war [22] 2. Gasoline and Diesel: Supply Evolution in the East and West under Geopolitical Impact 2.1 Gasoline Supply in Asia - Pacific before the Conflict - Asia - Pacific was the main area for global refining capacity growth. The increase in refining capacity and the change in raw material structure led to a relatively loose gasoline supply in the region [27] 2.2 Impact on Gasoline Production and Blending in Asia - Pacific after the Conflict - The interruption of Middle - Eastern crude oil exports led to a decline in refinery operations in China and potentially South Korea, resulting in a shortage of basic gasoline components [31] - The rise in crude oil and naphtha prices and export difficulties increased the cost of blending components, pushing up the price of gasoline [31] 2.3 Future Evolution of European Refineries and Gasoline Production - European refineries mainly processed light crude oil from the US and West Africa. The decline in Middle - Eastern crude oil exports might further shift them towards light crude [36] - European gasoline production was expected to bottom out and rebound after April, depending on the refinery processing volume [36] 2.4 Impact of US Production on Western Hemisphere Gasoline Supply and Demand - US refineries were less likely to reduce diesel production due to the high global diesel price and supply shortages in other regions. This might lead to a loss of about 160,000 barrels per day of gasoline production [40] 2.5 Global Diesel Price and Spread Trends - The decline in Middle - Eastern diesel exports led to a shortage of global diesel resources, with a sharp increase in spot and paper prices and a rapid decline in inventory [45] 2.6 Europe as the Focus of the Global Diesel Market - Europe had a weak diesel supply chain, with insufficient domestic production capacity and high external supply dependence, mainly on the Middle East, the US, and India [50] 2.7 US as a Supplier in the Western Hemisphere Diesel Market - The US had a potential diesel production increase of about 480,000 barrels per day, but it might not be able to fill the Middle - Eastern gap during the US gasoline consumption peak [53] 2.8 Asia - Pacific Refining Powers Filling the Middle - Eastern Diesel Gap - China, South Korea, and India were the main diesel suppliers in the Asia - Pacific market. However, China might reduce exports, South Korea's diesel yield might be compressed, and India's exports might have an upper limit [60] 3. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Micro - Market Structure under Geopolitical Issues 3.1 Iran's Position and Trade Flow in the Global Fuel Oil Market - Iran was the second - largest fuel oil exporter in the Middle East, with an annual export volume of about 15 - 18 million tons, mainly high - sulfur fuel oil [66] 3.2 Impact on Production and Export of Other Countries in the Strait - The production and export of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE were affected. Saudi Arabia's exports were threatened, Iraq's export capacity was restricted, and the UAE's transshipment role in Fujairah was limited [72] 3.3 Russia and Latin America Filling the Middle - Eastern Supply Gap - Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil exports had an upward trend, but its production was limited by drone attacks and sanctions. Latin America's exports were mostly directed to the US, and high freight rates restricted its ability to supply the Asia - Pacific [77] 3.4 Asia - Pacific Low - Sulfur Market Gap - The Asia - Pacific low - sulfur market faced a supply shortage, with losses from Kuwait, Indonesia, and Brazil. However, European low - sulfur prices might provide some supply through arbitrage [78][81] 3.5 Factors Determining Domestic Low - Sulfur Production - Domestic low - sulfur production depended on the processing volume of major refineries and the yield of refined oil products. As the peak consumption season for gasoline and diesel approached, the growth of low - sulfur production might be limited [85] 3.6 Potential Expansion of Fuel Oil Demand in Shipping and Power Generation - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East might lead to increased fuel consumption in shipping due to longer voyages and higher speeds. In the power generation sector, high - sulfur fuel oil demand in the Middle East was expected to increase seasonally [89][93] 4. LNG: Global LNG Balance under Supply Risk 4.1 Duration of Middle - Eastern LNG Supply Interruption - Qatar's supply interruption was expected to last at least until May, and Train 4&6's production reduction would continue until 2027. The supply interruption of Qatar and the UAE for one month would result in a reduction of about 6.9 million tons of LNG supply [103] 4.2 Supply - Side Balance Sheet Changes - In 2026, the global LNG production capacity growth rate was expected to decrease due to Qatar's facility losses. In the long - term, the global production capacity growth trend remained [106] 4.3 Regions with Significant Import Source Impact - Qatar's exports were mainly directed to Asia, especially China, India, South Korea, and Pakistan. South Asian countries were more dependent on Middle - Eastern imports [109] 4.4 Acceptance of High Prices by Asia - Pacific Demand Countries - Demand countries showed differentiation. South Asia and Southeast Asia had high dependence on Qatar's imports and weak infrastructure, while Northeast Asia had low short - term acceptance of high - price spot LNG [113] 4.5 Seasonal Gap after Demand Feedback - The estimated actual demand gap caused by one - month and two - month Middle - Eastern supply interruptions was 5.3 million tons and 10.6 million tons respectively. The demand gap might turn the annual balance sheet from loose to tight in 3 - 6 months [116] 4.6 Impact of European Stockpiling Demand on Annual Supply - Demand Balance - In the short - term, Europe's short - term stockpiling urgency decreased. In winter, the stockpiling demand would increase, and there was a seasonal gap during the peak summer electricity demand [119][121] 5. LPG: LPG Gap Calculation under Supply Risk 5.1 Middle - Eastern LPG Supply Reduction - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp decline in Middle - Eastern LPG exports. The supply gaps of C3 and C4 were about 2 million and 1.8 million tons per month respectively [126] 5.2 US as an Alternative Supplier - The US had limited ability to increase LPG exports in the short - term due to full - capacity operation at ports, equipment breakdowns, and a mismatch in product ratios [132] 5.3 LPG Supply - Demand Gap - The chemical demand for LPG was elastic, while the combustion demand was rigid. Even considering the US's increased exports and Iran's normal exports, there was still a combustion - end gap of 400,000 - 600,000 tons per month [135] 6. Shipping: Main Shipping Market Dynamics under Middle - Eastern Geopolitical Conflicts 6.1 Strait of Hormuz Passage Tracking Indicators - In late March, the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz was significantly lower than normal, and most of the passages were outbound [138][140] 6.2 Freight Rate Trends - The freight rates of various types of ships, including crude tankers, product tankers, LPG carriers, LNG carriers, and container ships, showed different trends. Generally, the freight rates were affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [146][151][158] 6.3 Ship Deployment Ratios - The east - west deployment ratio of oil tankers in the Suez Canal and the Atlantic - Pacific deployment ratio of bulk carriers changed due to the Middle - Eastern situation [167][169] 6.4 Impact on the Shipping Insurance Market - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East led to a significant increase in war - risk insurance rates. Insurance has become a key constraint on shipping [173][174] 6.5 Container Liner Companies' Operational Adjustments - Maersk, CMA CGM, and COSCO Shipping adjusted their routes and introduced multimodal transport solutions to deal with the Middle - Eastern logistics challenges [176][177][178] 6.6 Mandeb Strait Passage Status - In 2025, the passage volume of different ship types through the Mandeb Strait declined compared to 2024. After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026, the number of crude tankers passing through the Mandeb Strait increased [179]