Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rise due to mine - end disturbances, and in the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction provides a bottom support. The price center may gradually rise. Pay attention to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading and the marginal changes in the demand side. The main contract is supported at 81000 - 81500 [1]. Aluminum - The short - term alumina spot price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. The short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract running in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - The supply - relaxation logic has spread from the zinc - mine end to the zinc - ingot end. The zinc price will continue to be under pressure, but the impact of interest - rate cuts on the macro - trading logic needs to be noted [10]. Tin - If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price is expected to weaken; if the supply recovery is poor, the tin price will continue to oscillate at a high level, in the range of 265000 - 285000 [13]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price will maintain an interval oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 125000 [15]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless - steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract running in the range of 12600 - 13200 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium - carbonate price will oscillate and sort out, with the main - contract price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 82485 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous value. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 82490 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. SMM wet - process copper was at 82385 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 0 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum was at 20770 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2905 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 20900 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum was 1460 yuan/ton, down 4.58% [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum - alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21950 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The import profit and loss was - 3556 yuan/ton, up 7.35 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin was at 273700 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The LME 0 - 3 premium was - 105 dollars/ton, down 7.14% [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 470 yuan/ton, down 20.51% from the previous value [13]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin - ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71% from the previous value; the SMM refined - tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122450 yuan/ton, down 1.29%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price was 855 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [15]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The domestic refined - nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17536 tons, down 8.46% [15]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) average price was 51 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [17]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73600 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 857 dollars/ton, up 0.12% [19]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous value [19]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium - carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefin - LLDPE and PP: Recently, PP production has declined due to significant losses in PDH and externally - sourced propylene routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and decreased inventory. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually rising. This week, the inventory of the upper and middle reaches has decreased, and there are more import offers from North America. Currently, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure on the 01 contract, which limits the upside space [2]. Methanol - The market is trading high inventory and fast loading in Iran. Coastal inventory has reached a record high, market sentiment has deteriorated, prices have weakened, and the basis has slightly weakened. In terms of supply and demand, inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inland inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports prices. On the demand side, affected by the off - season of traditional downstream industries, demand is weak. Port arrivals are still high, inventory accumulation is significant, and trading has weakened. In terms of valuation, upstream profits are neutral, MTO profits are strengthening, and traditional downstream profits are slightly strengthening, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating inventory significantly, and the import volume in September remains high. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expected overseas gas restriction in the distant future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Recently, some pure benzene devices have restarted or produced products, and some maintenance plans have been postponed, so the supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products of pure benzene are still in a loss state, and some second - tier downstream products have high inventory. In September and October, both planned and unplanned production cuts in downstream styrene devices have reduced the demand support. The supply - demand expectation for pure benzene in September is still relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. In the short term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro - factors. - Styrene: Driven by the peak - season demand and pre - National - Day stocking of some factories, the overall demand for styrene downstream is okay, but the increase is limited. On the supply side, under the pressure of inventory and industry profits, more devices have shut down or reduced production. Some devices have reduced production due to accidents, and the export expectation of styrene has increased due to overseas device maintenance, so the supply is expected to decrease. Port inventory has accumulated, which may put pressure on the styrene price. In the short term, styrene may be affected by the oil price, geopolitical situation, and the alleviation of concerns about marginal supply increase [10]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is that the market's concerns about the current supply surplus have eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has resurfaced. Specifically, the oil export agreement of the Iraqi Kurds has reached a deadlock, eliminating about 230,000 barrels per day of new supply, which is the key trigger for the rebound after the previous continuous decline in oil prices and also provides support for the near - month spread. At the same time, Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and the tough stance of NATO have magnified the supply interruption risk of refined oil products, pushed up the cracking spread, and affected the oil price from the sentiment and cost aspects. Overall, although the IEA report and other macro - factors still point to a supply surplus, in the short term, geopolitical factors have become the main pricing factor in the market, temporarily overriding the bearish expectation of potential inventory increase. In the short term, oil prices are expected to move within a range. It is recommended to mainly conduct high - selling and low - buying operations, with the operating range of WTI at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to widen the spread after the volatility increases [21][22]. Urea - The urea futures price has been weakly oscillating recently. The main logic is sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. Specifically, the daily industry output remains at a high level of over 200,000 tons, and new production capacity is about to be released, increasing the supply pressure. At the same time, agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand has weakened due to the decline in the compound fertilizer start - up rate. Although there are some export port - collection orders, the overall impact is limited. The lack of market confidence and continuous inventory accumulation further suppress the futures price, and there is a lack of substantial positive driving factors [25]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, and Bottle - chip - PX: Recently, the short - process capacity utilization at home and abroad has increased, and the maintenance of some domestic PX devices has been postponed. In addition, multiple PTA devices have maintenance plans. The supply - demand expectation for PX in the fourth quarter is further weakened. However, it may be supported by oil prices in the short term. - PTA: Due to the continuously low processing fees of PTA, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been postponed, and multiple PTA devices have maintenance plans. The spot basis has been continuously weak. In terms of absolute price, it is affected by the situation in Ukraine's attack on Russian oil facilities. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply - demand situation is gradually weakening. In the short term, the import expectation in September is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand expectation for ethylene glycol in the fourth quarter is weak, mainly due to the start - up of new devices and the seasonal decline in demand in the fourth quarter, and ethylene glycol will enter an inventory accumulation cycle. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. Recently, the short - fiber supply has remained at a high level. On the demand side, although it is the peak season, new orders are limited, and the peak season this year is not very prosperous. The short - fiber price has support at the low level, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100, with limited upward and downward driving forces. - Bottle - chip: Recently, some bottle - chip devices have restarted while some have shut down, and the overall production reduction intensity remains basically unchanged. With the downstream's low - price replenishment demand, the absolute price and processing fee of bottle - chip are supported, and the inventory has decreased. However, the upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the production reduction of bottle - chip devices will further increase and the downstream follow - up situation [28]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - Caustic Soda: The futures price continued to weaken yesterday. This week, the supply has increased, and the start - up rate of sample enterprises has increased. On the downstream side, the continuous decline in domestic and overseas alumina prices has continuously narrowed the profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises, and the support for the spot price is weak. Affected by the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and the cautious downstream purchasing, the inventory in the North China region has increased. In the East China region, the enterprises under maintenance and load - reduction have not resumed, the supply is tight, and the non - aluminum demand has followed up as a rigid demand, so the inventory has decreased. This week, in the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, the short - term local caustic soda inventory needs time to be released. With the current high supply and the poor unloading of the main downstream, there is a possibility of further price cuts. It was previously recommended to take short positions, and the short positions can be held. - PVC: The futures price weakened yesterday, and the fundamental supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to resolve. On the supply side, many enterprises will end their maintenance next week, and the production is expected to increase. On the demand side, the start - up rate of downstream products has increased limitedly, and some have completed their inventory replenishment, so they are resistant to high prices and have average purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the price of raw material calcium carbide continues to rise, and the ethylene price remains stable, providing bottom - line support for costs. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [36]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, L2601 and L2509 closed down 0.35% and 0.50% respectively; PP2601 and PP2509 closed down 0.45% and 0.35% respectively. The spread between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 11.11%, and the spread between PP2509 - 2601 increased by 17.95%. The spot price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.44%, and the spot price of North China LDPE film decreased by 0.28% [2]. - **Start - up Rates**: The PE device start - up rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 1.78% to 42.9%. The PP device start - up rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9%, the PP powder start - up rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 51.5% [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 45.1 (unit not specified), and social inventory decreased by 2.45% to 54.7 million tons. PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 58.2 (unit not specified), and trader inventory increased by 14.74% to 19.3 million tons [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, MA2601 closed down 0.21%, MA2509 closed up 0.17%, the MA91 spread increased by 60.00%, the太仓 basis decreased by 16.37%, the spot price of Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 0.73%, the spot price of Luoyang, Henan decreased by 0.22%, and the spot price of Taicang port decreased by 0.44% [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048%, port inventory increased by 0.48% to 155.8 million tons, and social inventory increased by 0.28% to 189.8% [4]. - **Start - up Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.12% to 72.66%, the overseas enterprise start - up rate in Shanghai decreased by 4.94% to 68.6%, the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio increased by 13.46% to 116%, the downstream acetic acid start - up rate decreased by 3.41% to 82.3%, and the downstream MTBE start - up rate increased by 1.37% to 63.8% [4][5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, Brent crude oil (November) increased by 1.6% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil (October) increased by 1.2% to 63.41 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.4% to 596 dollars/ton, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged at 845 dollars/ton, CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7% to 723 dollars/ton, the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased by 5.6% to 125 dollars/ton, and the spread between ethylene and naphtha decreased by 1.0% to 247 dollars/ton [9]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of styrene in East China decreased by 1.0% to 6860 dollars/ton, EB2511 futures decreased by 0.8% to 6870 dollars/ton, the EB basis (10) increased by 33.3% to 24 dollars/ton, the EB10 - EB11 spread decreased by 112.5% to - 34 dollars/ton, the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 20.3% to - 337 dollars/ton, and the EB cash flow (integrated) decreased by 19.0% to - 552 dollars/ton [9]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flow of phenol decreased by 7.6% to - 272 dollars/ton, the cash flow of caprolactam (single product) decreased by 4.7% to - 1885 dollars/ton, the cash flow of aniline increased by 14.0% to 514 dollars/ton, the EPS cash flow decreased by 13.6% to 190 dollars/ton, the PS cash flow decreased by 100.0% to - 60 dollars/ton, and the ABS cash flow increased by 247.8% to 34 dollars/ton [10]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 20.1% to 10.70 million tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 17.3% to 18.65 million tons [10]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up Rates**: The domestic pure benzene start - up rate decreased by 1.2% to 78.4%, the domestic hydro - benzene start - up rate increased by 9.1% to 59.6%, the phenol start - up rate increased by 3.0% to 71.0%, the caprolactam start - up rate increased by 2.8% to 88.7%, the aniline start - up rate increased by 9.9% to 72.0%, the styrene start - up rate decreased by 2.1% to 73.4%, the downstream PS start - up rate decreased by 1.1% to 61.2%, the downstream EPS start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 61.7%, and the downstream ABS start - up rate decreased by 0.3% to 69.8% [10]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 24, compared with September 23, Brent crude oil increased by 1.59% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 0.54% to 63.75 dollars/barrel, SC crude oil decreased by 1.55% to 483.60 dollars/barrel. The Brent M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.82% to 1.37 dollars, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 49.65% to 0.72 dollars, and the SC M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.33% to 1.80 dollars [21]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.46% to 200.82 dollars, NYM ULSD increased by 0.85% to 234.78 dollars, ICE Gasoil increased by 2.43% to 705.75 dollars, the RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 27.94% to 7.61 dollars, the ULSD M1 - M3 spread decreased by 130.40% to - 0.76 dollars, and the Gasoil M1 - M3 spread decreased by 44.95% to 15.00 dollars [21]. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spreads**: The cracking spread of US gasoline increased by 1.10% to 20.59 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of European gasoline increased by 1.15% to 18.86 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of Singapore gasoline increased by 6.11% to 11.12 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of US diesel increased by 0.14% to 33.19 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of Singapore diesel increased by 0.86% to 18.74 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of US jet fuel decreased by 8.80% to 24.13 dollars/barrel, and the cracking spread of Singapore jet fuel increased by 0.85% to 17.74 dollars/barrel [21]. Urea - **Prices**: The synthetic ammonia (Shandong) price increased by 0.91% to 2220 dollars/ton. The spot prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Shanxi, and Guangdong decreased by 0.62%, 0.67%, and 0.56% respectively [25]. - **Spreads**: The Shandong - Henan spread decreased by 10 dollars to - 10 dollars/ton, the Guangdong - Henan spread decreased by 6% to 160 dollars/ton, the Shandong basis decreased by 20.00% to - 48 dollars/ton [25]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine (Shandong), compound fertilizer

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to rising raw material costs, with coking coal prices soaring to 1296 yuan/ton and iron ore remaining high at 755 yuan/ton, leading to production costs exceeding 75% of total expenses [1] - Despite high production costs, steel mills are reluctant to cut production as profits per ton of steel reach a three-year high, indicating a complex balance between cost pressures and profitability [1] - Regulatory changes are shifting focus from "low prices" to "disorderly competition," prompting steel mills in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to prepare for production cuts as environmental inspections intensify [1] Inventory and Demand Dynamics - Steel inventory is on the rise, with total inventory increasing by 234,700 tons in one week, marking a two-month high, while construction site demand remains sluggish due to adverse weather conditions [3] - Despite the inventory surge, steel prices have shown resilience, with Shanghai rebar prices holding steady at 3250 yuan/ton, indicating a disconnect between supply and demand dynamics [3] - Exports of steel reached 9.836 million tons in July, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, while domestic demand is declining, particularly in rebar and hot-rolled products [3] Price and Market Reactions - Coking coal prices continue to rise, with the sixth round of price increases being pursued by coking plants, which are still operating at a loss despite previous hikes [4] - The market is characterized by a tug-of-war between supply and demand, with steel mills maintaining high production levels while facing increasing competition for coal resources [4] - The futures market is witnessing significant activity, with steel futures inventories reaching annual highs, and traders are closely monitoring price movements for potential short-selling opportunities [4]

Group 1: Research Views - On July 3, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2508 closed at 35,050 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.14%. The open interest decreased by 18,097 lots to 76,908 lots. The price of SMM N-type polysilicon material rose to 36,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon material also rose to 36,000 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract remained stable at 950 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend. The main contract 2509 closed at 8,010 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.93%. The open interest decreased by 5,521 lots to 381,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 8,738 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon rose to 8,150 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 165 yuan/ton [2]. - The latest industry meeting put forward more requirements to prevent "involutionary" vicious competition in the industry, and the implementation of polysilicon production cuts is expected to speed up. Previously, there were news of large-scale production cuts at industrial silicon plants in Xinjiang. Industrial silicon drove polysilicon to rebound upwards. Due to the previous oversold situation, the recovery power of polysilicon was stronger than that of industrial silicon. Recently, there have been frequent news in the polysilicon industry, and the trading logic has gradually shifted to polysilicon leading the rise of industrial silicon [2]. - Currently, the high inventory pressure has not been resolved, and there has been no actual improvement in the fundamentals of the two silicons. The news has increased the volatility of the market. It is recommended that investors be cautious and continuously pay attention to the price ratio of the two silicons, track inventory inflection points, and policy trends [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,035 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 8,050 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of silicon increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, except for some 421 silicon that remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,200 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 100 yuan to 165 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 62 to 51,854, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 19,735 tons to 263,720 tons. The inventories at Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, and Kunming Port decreased by 3,000 tons, 11,000 tons, and 2,000 tons respectively. The industrial silicon factory inventory decreased by 54,860 tons to 211,640 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 70,860 tons to 367,640 tons [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract remained unchanged at 35,050 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 660 yuan/ton to 35,660 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 36,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium remained at 950 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,780, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory was 78,000 tons. The polysilicon factory inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 269,800 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 270,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 10,800 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. Downstream Products - The prices of silicon wafers (single crystal M10/G12) and battery cells (single crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged [4]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and fine coal prices [5][7][12] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][19][21] 3.3 Inventory - Charts show the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [24][25][27] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, industrial silicon weekly cost and profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [30][32][37] Group 4: Research Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has over a decade of commodity research experience and has won multiple awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [39][40]

Report Information - Report Name: [Huabao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - Aluminum: Macro uncertainty remains high. Low inventory provides support but there are signs of inventory accumulation. Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term. Follow-up attention should be paid to the development of news and the transition of downstream off - season [9]. - Zinc: Supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the development of news [10]. - Tin: Prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but downward pressure will increase in the medium term [11]. Section Summaries 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - Copper (CU2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 79,920, up 1,930 (2.47%) from June 20. The spot price was 80,160, up 1,790 (2.28%) [7]. - Aluminum (AL2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 20,580, up 115 (0.56%) from June 20. The spot price was 20,940, up 240 (1.16%) [7]. - Zinc (ZN2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 22,410, up 565 (2.59%) from June 20. The spot price was 22,406, up 634 (2.91%) [7]. - Tin (SN2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 268,870, up 8,310 (3.19%) from June 20. The spot price was 270,500, up 6,500 (2.46%) [7]. - Nickel (NI2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 120,480, up 2,200 (1.86%) from June 20. The spot price was 122,540, up 1,900 (1.57%) [7]. 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rose. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to gradually emerge. The average weekly outbound volume in the 4th week of May was 3.54 million tons/week, and in the 4th week of June, it was 3.32 million tons/week, a decrease of 220,000 tons/week. In June, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry was 40.1%, falling below the boom - bust line, a decrease of 9.7 percentage points month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year. As of June 30, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 468,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from last Thursday and 4,000 tons from last Monday. Due to the increase in the overall supply of aluminum ingots in late June and the high price of aluminum inhibiting consumption and outbound performance, inventory accumulation occurred as expected. In early July, with the expected slight increase in the ingot - casting volume in some provinces, inventory may continue to increase steadily. [9] - View: Macro uncertainty remains high. Low inventory provides support but there are signs of inventory accumulation. Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of news and the transition of downstream off - season. [9] Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices were strong. The macro - market sentiment improved due to macro - easing, and the expectation of interest rate cuts also supported the upward movement of LME zinc. There was a strike by workers at a zinc smelter in Peru, and overseas inventories have been declining recently, which brought uncertainty to the supply side and drove prices up. The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.72%, a decrease of 0.28% month - on - month. The procurement of zinc oxide enterprises decreased due to the rising zinc price and weakening downstream consumption, and the raw material inventory decreased while the finished product inventory increased. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 46.54%, a decrease of 8.58 percentage points month - on - month. Due to the rising zinc price, enterprise procurement willingness was low, and the raw material inventory decreased. Due to weakening downstream consumption and high prices, the outbound volume of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. As of June 30, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from June 23 and 1,100 tons from June 26. [10] - View: Zinc supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the development of news. [10] Tin - Logic: Overseas supply remains tight, domestic smelting enterprise inventories are low, and the operating rate has decreased. Although future supply is expected to be loose, short - term supply tightness continues to support tin prices. Downstream demand has not changed much, but there are signs of slowing growth in sectors such as semiconductors, automobiles, and home appliances, which may put some pressure on tin. [11] - View: Prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but downward pressure will increase in the medium term. [11] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton from June 20 to June 27, up 15 year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 570 yuan/ton, up 30 year - on - year; the average import bauxite price index was 74.21 US dollars/ton on June 27, a decrease of 0.22 from June 20 and an increase of 2.04 year - on - year. The port arrival volume on June 27 was 4.8992 million tons, an increase of 698,300 tons from June 20 and 716,400 tons year - on - year; the port outbound volume was 3.7212 million tons, a decrease of 783,300 tons from June 20 and an increase of 13,100 tons year - on - year. [15][18] - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan on June 27 was 3,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 from June 20 and 790 year - on - year; the full cost was 2,866.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5 from June 20 and an increase of 47.8 year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was 136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 from June 20 and 957.58 year - on - year. [21] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total cost on June 27 was 16,864.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125.37 from June 20 and 1,096.24 year - on - year; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 from June 20 and 80 year - on - year. The operating rates of aluminum cable, aluminum foil, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum profile, primary aluminum alloy, and recycled aluminum alloy all had certain changes. The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai on June 26 was 103,300 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from June 19 and 57,200 tons year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 119,300 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from June 19 and 67,200 tons year - on - year; the social inventory on June 30 was 468,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from June 23 and a decrease of 295,000 tons year - on - year; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas on June 23 was 108,800 tons, a decrease of 11,500 tons from June 16 and an increase of 11,100 tons year - on - year. The SHFE inventory on June 27 was 94,290 tons, a decrease of 10,194 tons from June 20 and 167,910 tons year - on - year; the LME inventory was 345,200 tons, an increase of 2,350 tons from June 20 and a decrease of 687,675 tons year - on - year. The basis and monthly spread of SMM A00 aluminum also had corresponding changes. [23][27][32][33] Zinc - Zinc Concentrate: The domestic zinc concentrate price on June 27 was 17,400 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 432 from June 20 and a decrease of 3,090 year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 3,600 yuan/metal ton from June 20, an increase of 1,300 year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 65.25 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 9.98 from June 20. The enterprise production profit was 4,400 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 432 from June 20 and a decrease of 2,548 year - on - year; the import profit and loss was - 988.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 558.63 from June 20 and 906.63 year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang on June 27 was 80,000 physical tons, a decrease of 10,000 from June 20 and an increase of 64,000 year - on - year. [49][52] - Refined Zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions on June 30 was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from June 23 and a decrease of 117,300 tons year - on - year; the bonded - area inventory on June 26 was 6,000 tons, unchanged from June 19 and a decrease of 7,500 tons year - on - year; the SHFE refined zinc inventory on June 27 was 43,633 tons, an increase of 769 from June 20 and a decrease of 83,064 tons year - on - year; the LME zinc inventory was 119,225 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from June 20 and 120,375 tons year - on - year. [55] - Galvanized: The production volume on June 27 was 334,740 tons, a decrease of 4,960 from June 20 and 5,480 year - on - year; the operating rate was 56.21, a decrease of 2.39 from June 20 and 0.89 year - on - year; the raw material inventory was 14,525 tons, a decrease of 720 from June 20 and an increase of 1,475 year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 379,500 tons, an increase of 600 from June 20 and a decrease of 47,680 year - on - year. The basis and monthly spread of SMM 0 zinc ingot also had corresponding changes. [58][61][65] Tin - Refined Tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces on June 27 was 2,470 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 790 tons year - on - year; the combined operating rate was 50.97%, an increase of 4.13 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 16.3 percentage points year - on - year. [69] - Tin Ingot: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory on June 27 was 6,955 tons, a decrease of 10 from the previous period and 8,172 tons year - on - year; the social inventory in Chinese regions was 9,096 tons, an increase of 251 from the previous period and a decrease of 7,221 tons year - on - year. [72] - Tin Ore: The tin concentrate processing fees in Yunnan (40%), Guangxi (60%), Hunan (60%), and Jiangxi (60%) remained unchanged from June 20, with a year - on - year decrease of 5,000. The tin ore import profit and loss level on June 26 was 10,606.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,635.29 from the previous period and 6,890.96 year - on - year. The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi all increased by 5,700 from June 20 and 6,250 year - on - year. [74][75][79]

Group 1: Report Core View - The short - term coking coal and coke may continue the volatile and upward trend as recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, and the upstream coal mines have seen an inventory inflection point [4] Group 2: Market Conditions Summary - Last week, coking coal and coke futures prices showed a volatile rebound trend. On the spot side, coke remained stable after four rounds of price cuts, and the coking coal market maintained a weak and stable operation [3] - Due to safety reasons, there were regional and group - based coal mine production cuts and shutdowns in coal mines in Changzhi Qinyuan and Linfen, Shanxi last week, leading to a significant decline in production and a shortage of resources such as lean coal and lean coking coal. The coal prices in the local area rebounded under the drive of the rigid replenishment demand of downstream coking and steel enterprises. In addition, environmental inspections in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained strict, and surrounding open - pit coal mines shut down voluntarily [3] - Steel mills maintained a high operating rate, and the rigid demand for raw materials was good [3] Group 3: Production and Inventory Data - Last week, the daily output of raw coal in coal mines was 1.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 203,000 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 738,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35,000 tons [4] - The raw coal inventory was 6.835 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 179,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 4.631 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 361,000 tons [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: The current situation remains strong, and the market is waiting for confirmation of the inventory inflection point. The high premium and low inventory situation persists, and the impact of pre - emptive export demand on subsequent demand needs dynamic observation. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and export shipping capacity. From a micro - fundamental perspective, aluminum ingot social inventory continues to decline, and downstream production and processing profits are under pressure [3]. - Alumina: It is in a dilemma of continuous复产 but low inventory. The disk is slightly supported due to tight warrant supplies. The market expects the inventory inflection point to be approaching, but inventory data from different sources shows divergence. The current price valuation is a key factor in the long - short game [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Side: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: The term structure of SHFE aluminum shows a B - structure, and the B - structure of alumina term spreads narrows. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium has changed from - 210 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium has changed from - 425 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton. The term B - structure of alumina has narrowed, with the premium of Shandong and Henan alumina to the current month decreasing [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of SHFE aluminum have narrowed. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract has decreased from 120 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton, and the spread percentage has decreased from 0.58% to 0.46% [5]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract has significantly declined, and the trading volume has also decreased. The open interest of the alumina main contract remains stable at a high level, and the trading volume has rebounded during the week [13]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum has declined, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [17]. 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Bauxite**: As of June 20, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 250,000 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory days remain the same. As of May, the port inventory and inventory days of Chinese bauxite in the阿拉丁 caliber have continued to increase. In May, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises has increased by 4.487 million tons month - on - month, and the inventory days in alumina plants have also increased. Port shipments and sea - floating inventories show differentiation, and the outbound volume has increased while the inbound volume has decreased [23][28][29]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory has increased, with the factory inventory decreasing, the electrolytic aluminum plant inventory increasing slightly, the port inventory increasing, and the platform/in - transit inventory decreasing. The阿拉丁 full - caliber inventory has continued to decrease, with the factory inventory decreasing by 32,000 tons week - on - week, the electrolytic aluminum plant inventory increasing by 10,000 tons, the port inventory decreasing by 2,000 tons, and the yard/platform/in - transit inventory increasing by 19,000 tons [42][48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory has continued to decline rapidly. As of June 12, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 13,000 tons to 450,000 tons, and the destocking rhythm has accelerated [49]. - **Aluminum Rods**: The spot inventory and factory inventory of downstream aluminum rods have increased, and the outbound volume has decreased [54]. 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: In May, the domestic bauxite supply showed a recovery trend, but the latest data from Steel Union in May showed a decline. The supply of domestic mines in different provinces was differentiated, with production in some provinces increasing and in others decreasing [60][64]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate has rebounded. As of June 20, the total operating capacity of national alumina is 88.6 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 100,000 tons. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina is 1.715 million tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week, and the supply - side loosening pattern remains unchanged [68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of May, the operating capacity remains at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate has significantly rebounded due to profit repair. As of June 19, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum is 844,700 tons, an increase of 800 tons from last week. The proportion of molten aluminum has seasonally increased [71]. - **Downstream Processing**: The output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has continued to decline slightly, with a weekly decrease of 5,700 tons. The output of recycled aluminum rods has increased by 540 tons week - on - week, and the output of aluminum rods has increased by 1,100 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of leading downstream enterprises has declined, and each segment shows differentiation [74][77]. 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Alumina**: The profit continues to recover. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina according to Steel Union is 388.5 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have all increased, and the profit performance in Guangxi is better than other regions [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remains at a high level, but complex global macro - economic situations, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [92]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly declined, with a weekly decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [93]. 3.5 Consumption: Import and Export Profits and Losses, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profits and Losses**: The import profits and losses of alumina and SHFE aluminum have rebounded [101]. - **Export**: In May, the export of processed aluminum materials has significantly weakened. In April 2025, the export of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. The export profits and losses of aluminum processed materials show differentiation, and export demand is hindered by trade policy adjustments [103][106]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The transaction area of commercial housing has rebounded, and automobile production has increased month - on - month [111].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for non-ferrous metals is "Overweight" (maintained) [5] - The investment rating for basic metals and processing is also "Overweight" (maintained) [5] - The specific recommendation for the company "Shan Jin International" is "Buy" with a target price of 25.53 [6][54] Core Views - Gold prices are expected to show strong fluctuations due to tariff policies and inflation expectations [1][15] - Basic metals are experiencing strong near-term demand, with a focus on inventory turning points [3][13] - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies on both gold and basic metals, suggesting potential upward pressure on gold prices [2][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates that gold prices may experience strong fluctuations in the short term due to ongoing tariff policies and inflation data [1][15] - Basic metals are currently facing strong demand, with a particular emphasis on monitoring inventory levels as a potential turning point [3][13] Key Companies and Dynamics - The report suggests that the ongoing tariff disputes and U.S. fiscal expansion may provide upward momentum for gold prices, recommending investment in industry leaders like Shan Jin International [2] - Shan Jin International reported a revenue of 4.321 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 55.84%, and a net profit of 694 million yuan, up 37.91% year-on-year [55] Sub-industry Insights - Basic metals are seeing robust near-term demand, with a focus on inventory turning points [3][13] - The report notes that the aluminum market is experiencing a decline in inventory, which may support prices in the near term [14] - The gold market is influenced by U.S. tariff policies, which may lead to strong fluctuations in prices [15]