Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures market rose 1.34% on the day, with support at the 60-day moving average on the daily chart. Although there is short-term inventory accumulation and general downstream demand, there is pressure above. However, as time passes, imports are likely to slow down in January, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback. The key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of the plants after gas restrictions in Iran [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 4.08 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 57,200 tons, while that in South China decreased by 16,400 tons. This week, the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang, with 227,100 tons of visible foreign vessels unloading during the period. The提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remained stable, but the delivery from the side storage areas along the river was weak due to the opening of the inland delivery space. In Zhejiang, foreign vessels arrived at the port intensively, and the inventory increased significantly under stable demand. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly this week. In Guangdong, there was a small amount of import and domestic trade vessel replenishment during the period, and the提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas decreased due to the holiday, resulting in little inventory fluctuation. In Fujian, there were no vessels arriving at the port this week, and the inventory decreased under the rigid demand of downstream consumption [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The interest rates of short-term large-denomination certificates of deposit in some banks have entered the "0 range", which is similar to that of ordinary time deposits. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in December 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.8% year-on-year. China's CPI annual rate in December was 0.8%, with an expected value of 0.9% and a previous value of 0.70% [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market rose 1.34% on the day, with support at the 60-day moving average on the daily chart. Short-term inventory accumulation and general downstream demand pose some pressure above. However, as time passes, imports are likely to slow down in January, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback. The key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of the plants after gas restrictions in Iran [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-09 库存拐点已现，碳酸锂依然强势震荡 市场分析 2026-01-08，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于140860元/吨，收于145000元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化2.46%。当日 成交量为654824手，持仓量为514467手，前一交易日持仓量506520手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-9720元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单25770手，较上个交易日变化590手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价132000-145000元/吨，较前一交易日变化5000元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价130000-140000元/吨，较前一交易日变化5000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1825美元/吨，较前一日变化70美元/吨。 昨日有色、贵金属板块大跌，但碳酸锂依然维持强势，午后虽然受板块影响大幅下滑，但尾盘强势收涨。碳酸锂 维持强势主要受供给端干扰影响以及宏观消息的影响，供应端四川、青海部分锂盐厂仍处检修，消息端1月7日工 业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局、国家能源局联合召开动力和储能电池行业座谈会，研究部署进 一步规范动力和储能电池产业竞争秩序工 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 【基本面分析】 库存方面：截至 2026 年 1 月 7 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 153.72 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 4.08 吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 5.72 万吨；华南地 区去库，库存减少 1.64 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存继续积累，主要积累在浙江地 区，周期内显性外轮卸货 22.71 万吨。江苏沿江主流库区提货依然稳健，内地送 到空间打开导致沿江边库出货偏弱。浙江地区外轮抵港集中，需求稳定下库存大 幅积累。本周华南港口库存小幅去库。广东地区周期内少量进口及内贸船只补充， 受假期影响主流库区提货量减少，库存波动不大。福建地区周内暂无船只抵港， 下游刚需消耗下，库存呈现去库。 【宏观面分析】 据华尔街日报，知情人士透露，特朗普及其顾问正在筹划一项规模庞大的计 划，拟在未来多年内主导委内瑞拉石油产业。特朗普已向助手表示，他认为这一 行动有助于将油价压低至其偏好的每桶 50 美元水平。 1 冠通期货 黄德志 执业资格证书编号：F03095011/Z0020103 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于国 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 【基本面分析】 库存方面：截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.74 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 6.49 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 3.98 万吨；华南 地区累库，库存增加 2.51 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存继续积累，周期内显性外轮 计入 32.49 万吨，非显性外轮计入 10.9 万吨。虽倒流支撑明显减弱，但江苏沿 江主流库区提货延续良好，卸货较多背景下库存有所积累；浙江地区刚需稳健， 库存同步积累。本周华南港口库存呈现累库。广东地区周内少量进口及内贸船只 补充，主流库区提货量表现尚可，当地库存去库。福建地区进口集中抵港，以及 少量内贸船只补充，下游刚需消耗下，库存继续累库。 【宏观面分析】 1 冠通期货 黄德志 执业资格证书编号：F03095011/Z0020103 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于国家统计局官网、中国货 币网、隆众数据、Wind、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 欧佩克+同意第一季度暂停增产，会议未谈及委内瑞拉问题。 特朗普：美国需要完全获取委内瑞拉 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 6 日 【基本面分析】 库存方面：截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.74 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 6.49 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 3.98 万吨；华南 地区累库，库存增加 2.51 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存继续积累，周期内显性外轮 计入 32.49 万吨，非显性外轮计入 10.9 万吨。虽倒流支撑明显减弱，但江苏沿 江主流库区提货延续良好，卸货较多背景下库存有所积累；浙江地区刚需稳健， 库存同步积累。本周华南港口库存呈现累库。广东地区周内少量进口及内贸船只 补充，主流库区提货量表现尚可，当地库存去库。福建地区进口集中抵港，以及 少量内贸船只补充，下游刚需消耗下，库存继续累库。 【宏观面分析】 欧佩克+同意第一季度暂停增产，会议未谈及委内瑞拉问题。 特朗普：美国需要完全获取委内瑞拉的石油和其他资源。如果他们不遵守规 定，我们将对委内瑞拉进行第二次打击。 冠通期货 黄德志 执业资格证书编号：F03095011/Z0020103 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于国家统计局官 ...

欧佩克+同意第一季度暂停增产，会议未谈及委内瑞拉问题。 特朗普：美国需要完全获取委内瑞拉的石油和其他资源。如果他们不遵守规 定，我们将对委内瑞拉进行第二次打击。 【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 【基本面分析】 库存方面：截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.74 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 6.49 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 3.98 万吨；华南 地区累库，库存增加 2.51 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存继续积累，周期内显性外轮 计入 32.49 万吨，非显性外轮计入 10.9 万吨。虽倒流支撑明显减弱，但江苏沿 江主流库区提货延续良好，卸货较多背景下库存有所积累；浙江地区刚需稳健， 库存同步积累。本周华南港口库存呈现累库。广东地区周内少量进口及内贸船只 补充，主流库区提货量表现尚可，当地库存去库。福建地区进口集中抵港，以及 少量内贸船只补充，下游刚需消耗下，库存继续累库。 【宏观面分析】 执业资格证书编号：F03095011/Z0020103 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于国家统计局官网、中国货 币网、 ...

｜2025年12月8日 星期一｜ 信达证券研报指出，9月以来市场缩量的内在原因是消化高换手率和部分板块交易拥挤，目前这两个原 因均有所缓和。本轮缩量震荡时间偏长，主要原因或在于当前市场资金面中，稳定的买入力量更多在于 中长期资金和产业资本，局部板块快速轮动的行情较难驱动居民资金大幅流入。另外也有年底存量机构 行为趋于稳健以及预期扰动下部分止盈资金离场的影响。但该机构认为当前时点可以保持乐观。一方 面，牛市中低成交量不是利空信号，事后来看，成交量低点大多情况下是牛市中较好的买入时点。 2005-2007年和2019-2021年，牛市中的调整或震荡期，成交量往往会快速萎缩。事后来看，成交量低点 通常也是市场阶段性低点。另一方面，历史上跨年行情启动之前，市场大多会先有一定的调整，本质上 是交易性资金为博弈跨年行情腾挪安全边际。2025年12月或成为布局跨年行情的窗口期。 NO.3 华西证券：跨年行情有望徐徐展开 华西证券认为，岁末年初，A股多路增量资金入市可以期待：一方面，海外美联储降息概率较大，人民 币汇率偏强运行有利于外资增配中国资产；另一方面，监管层下调保险资金股票投资风险因子和年初保 险资金"开门红"预期下 ...

Group 1 - CITIC Securities reports that a turning point in inventory has been observed since mid-November, with expectations for LME copper prices to accelerate towards $12,000 per ton by the end of the year due to interest rate cuts and domestic production reductions [1] - Looking ahead to next year, the dual narrative of "U.S. copper hoarding" and "domestic production cuts" is expected to resonate, potentially widening the supply gap by 60%, with $12,000 becoming a new starting point for copper prices [1] - A comprehensive recommendation for allocation in the copper sector has been made [1] Group 2 - Cinda Securities indicates that the foundation for a bull market remains solid, with the current market's low trading volume not being a negative signal, as historical patterns show that low volume often coincides with good buying opportunities during bull markets [2] - The report suggests that the end of the year may serve as a window for positioning ahead of a cross-year market rally, as adjustments typically occur before such rallies [2] - Huaxi Securities anticipates an influx of new capital into the A-share market at the year's end, driven by factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and favorable currency conditions for foreign investment in Chinese assets [3] - The report highlights sectors to focus on, including high-growth areas supported by industrial policy, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and AI applications, as well as non-ferrous metals benefiting from improved overseas liquidity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the inventory turning point has emerged since mid-November, combined with rising expectations for interest rate cuts and domestic production reductions, leading to a forecast that LME copper prices may accelerate towards $12,000 per ton by the end of the year [1] Group 1: Inventory and Price Forecast - The inventory turning point will support the acceleration of copper prices towards $12,000 per ton by year-end [1] - Current high inventory levels are primarily influenced by COMEX hoarding, while LME and domestic inventories are not excessively high [1] - The expected decline in domestic inventory consumption days to below the five-year average (<10 days) will further support price increases during the year-end period [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The combination of "U.S. copper hoarding" and "domestic production cuts" is expected to significantly widen the supply gap by 60% to 450,000 tons in 2026 [2] - Uncertainty in tariff policies and the rapid development of AI are driving continued U.S. copper hoarding, with a projected increase in copper demand from infrastructure and energy sectors [2] - Domestic production cuts are anticipated to significantly reduce overall production growth next year, despite an increase in recycled copper supply [3] Group 3: Long-term Price Outlook - The forecasted price of $12,000 per ton is seen as both a safety net for long-term supply and a potential new upward elastic point [4] - The increase in exploration costs and investment intensity for new projects supports the upward price target of $12,000 per ton [4] - Historical trends in global apparent inventory changes suggest a strong potential for price increases in the coming year, similar to past market behaviors [4]

本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究，作者：敖翀、拜俊飞、涂耀廷 11月中旬以来库存拐点已现，叠加降息预期和国内减产发酵，年内LME铜价有望加速迈向12000美元/ 吨。展望明年，"美铜囤货"与"国内减产"的双重叙事有望加速共振，供给缺口有望拉阔60%，预计 12000美元将成为铜价的崭新起点。全面推荐铜板块配置。 库存拐点将助力年内铜价加速迈向12000美元。 针对近期市场关于"高铜价和高库存"背离的讨论，我们认为目前库存读数偏高更多受COMEX囤货影 响，LME和国内库存难言高企。考虑到持续溢价状态下的COMEX库存回流难度较高、LME库存主要为 中俄货源，当前市场上有限的有效库存愈显脆弱，特别是在全球经济预期向上、经贸风险增加的大环境 下。我们预计Q4国内供需均环比走弱，但供给的下滑幅度更大，并将推动年底国内库存消费天数下滑 至近五年均值以下（<10天）。每年年底去库至来年春节假期后的1-2个月，期间的铜价上涨具备充分的 历史数据验证。随着11月中旬以来库存拐点已现，叠加降息预期升温和国内减产发酵，年内LME铜价 有望加速迈向12000美元/吨。 美铜囤货延续叠加国内减产落地，明年供给缺口料将大幅拉阔。 1 ...