Oil Market - Oil prices increased on Wednesday, with WTI January contract closing at $58.65 per barrel, up $0.70, a rise of 1.21% [1] - Brent January contract closed at $63.13 per barrel, up $0.65, a rise of 1.04% [1] - EIA reported an increase in U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, with crude oil inventory rising by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels as of November 21 [1] - Baker Hughes reported a decrease in the number of active oil and gas rigs in the U.S., with a total rig count down by 10 to 544, the lowest since September [1] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 0.16% to 2447 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil rose by 0.33% to 3013 yuan/ton [2] - China's bonded marine fuel oil imports in October were 518,800 tons, down 4.53% month-on-month and down 23.19% year-on-year [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil market remains supported by strong downstream demand from marine fuel and refineries [2] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.02% to 3019 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic asphalt production plans for December are around 2.23 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons month-on-month [2] - Current asphalt prices are stable around 3000 yuan/ton, with expectations of continued loose supply-demand dynamics [2] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 70 yuan/ton to 15195 yuan/ton [3] - Supply and demand are weak due to reduced tire production and adverse weather conditions affecting rubber production [3] - The cancellation of warehouse receipts has led to a record low in warehouse receipts, indicating potential support for rubber prices [3] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4684 yuan/ton, up 0.6%, while EG2601 closed at 3896 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [4] - PX futures closed at 6774 yuan/ton, up 0.83%, with spot prices at $829 per ton [4] - PTA supply is expected to decrease, while downstream polyester production is anticipated to increase [5] Methanol - Methanol prices are showing strength, with Taicang spot prices at 2088 yuan/ton [6] - Domestic supply remains high, but Iranian plant shutdowns may lead to a significant drop in imports in December [6] - The market is expected to see a rebound in methanol prices, but with an upper limit due to weak downstream polyethylene prices [6] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure with production margins negative for various production methods [7] - High supply levels are expected to continue, while demand is marginally weakening [7] - The market is transitioning to a supply strong and demand weak scenario, with inventory pressures increasing [7] PVC - PVC prices are adjusting downwards in various regions, with supply remaining high and demand slowing due to a slowdown in real estate construction [8] - The market is expected to stabilize at lower levels, with potential for bottoming out due to reduced export barriers [8] Urea - Urea futures prices increased by 1.29% to 1654 yuan/ton, with strong demand reflected in high sales rates in several regions [9] - Domestic supply remains high, with production levels stable and no signs of reduced output [9] - International market dynamics, particularly from India, may impact future pricing [9] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices remained stable at 1175 yuan/ton, with positive market sentiment driving demand [10] - Supply levels are stable, but future pressures may arise from new production capacities [10] - The market is expected to continue its low-level wide fluctuations [10] Glass - Glass futures prices rose by 1.87% to 1037 yuan/ton, with the market showing signs of recovery [11] - Demand is improving, with production rates in key regions exceeding 100% [11] - The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with potential for further price increases if demand continues to strengthen [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have all experienced a peak in rapid capacity expansion in the past 5 - 6 years, but the capacity growth rate in 2025 significantly declined compared to the previous peak. The production growth rate of PX and PTA also dropped notably. Polyester products, being closer to the downstream, have shown a steady overall growth in capacity. Although the capacity growth rate in the past two years has also slowed down, the decline is not as significant as that of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol. It is expected that in 2026, the polyester capacity will continue to grow moderately, while the capacity growth rate of mid - upstream products will slow down significantly. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation of the industrial chain will generally improve [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. PX Enters the Stage of Low - Capacity Growth with Limited Room for Utilization Rate Increase - **PX new device production may be postponed due to strict control of refining capacity**: From 2019 - 2023, affected by the commissioning of private refining and chemical integration devices, PX new devices were intensively put into production, with the capacity growth rate exceeding 20% in multiple years. Since the second half of 2023, no new PX devices have been commissioned. In September 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments issued a work plan, requiring strict control of new refining capacity and reasonable determination of the scale and pace of new PX capacity. Some large - scale PX devices planned for 2026 - 2028 may be postponed. Even if they are commissioned as scheduled, the capacity growth rate will significantly decline compared to the 2019 - 2023 peak [14]. - **PX utilization rate is difficult to increase significantly due to maintenance needs**: PX devices need regular maintenance, and the maintenance time is usually longer than that of PTA, resulting in a certain amount of maintenance loss every year. The PX utilization rate fluctuates throughout the year, and the high - utilization rate usually lasts for no more than three months. In recent years, the average annual utilization rate has been around 81.5%, and it is expected that there will be limited room for further improvement in 2026 [18]. 2. In 2026, PTA Enters a Gap Period of New Capacity Commissioning, and the Utilization Rate Affects Supply - **The pressure of PTA capacity growth eases as there are no new device commissioning plans in 2026**: From 2019 - 2025, China's PTA capacity continued to expand, with high growth rates in some years. In 2025, three new PTA devices were commissioned, with a net increase in capacity of 7.5 million tons per year. In 2026, there are no new PTA device commissioning plans, and although there are multiple devices planned for 2027 - 2028, the overall capacity growth rate from 2024 - 2026 is relatively low [20][23]. - **PTA utilization rate has room for increase due to production efficiency**: This year, the PTA spot processing fee has been poor, which generally affects the industry's utilization rate. In 2025, the average PTA utilization rate was 78.4%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous year. In 2026, on one hand, the supply growth pressure is reduced due to no new device commissioning; on the other hand, there is potential for the utilization rate to increase and boost production [24][25]. 3. Ethylene Glycol New Devices Are Scheduled to Be Commissioned at the End of Next Year, and the Supply Growth Pressure Is Expected to Be Limited - **Some ethylene glycol new devices may be postponed**: From 2020 - 2023, the ethylene glycol capacity growth rate was high, but it significantly declined from 2024. In 2025, the capacity increased by 1.4 million tons per year, with a growth rate of 4.6%. From 2026 - 2027, there are still many new device commissioning plans, with a total planned capacity of 5.35 million tons per year. However, due to poor production efficiency, some devices may be postponed. In 2026, only Huajin Aramco's 400,000 - ton - per - year device is planned to be commissioned in the first half of the year, so the new - capacity pressure in the first half of the year is small, while the market will focus more on the commissioning of new devices in the second half of the year [29][30]. - **There is still potential for the ethylene glycol utilization rate to increase**: This year, the profit of oil - based ethylene glycol has improved compared to last year, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was good before July, promoting an increase in the utilization rate. In 2025, the average utilization rate of oil - based ethylene glycol increased by 2.6 percentage points, that of coal - based ethylene glycol increased by 4.9 percentage points, and the comprehensive utilization rate was 59.7%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from last year. The ethylene glycol production increased due to factors such as a slight increase in capacity, an increase in utilization rate, and a significant increase in imports. Although there are many new device commissioning plans in 2026, the actual supply increase may be limited, and there is limited room for the utilization rate to continue increasing [33][34]. 4. Outlook In 2026, the capacity growth rate of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol will continue to slow down. PTA capacity is expected to have zero growth, and the supply pressure will be small. Polyester capacity is expected to maintain a certain positive growth due to economic growth and reduced uncertainties in exports. The demand for polyester raw materials will slightly increase, and the supply - demand relationship will gradually improve. The low - price and low - profit state of the polyester industrial chain is expected to improve, and the certainty of improved production profit is relatively high [39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [6] Report's Core Views - The market is affected by geopolitical factors such as the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the prices of most energy and chemical products are under pressure. The supply and demand fundamentals of each product vary, and investors should pay attention to relevant factors and adopt corresponding strategies [1][3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.21%, Brent rising 1.20%, and SC falling 1.03% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, and the short - term driver is the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [9]. - **Fundamentals**: As of the week of November 26, the number of US oil rigs decreased, and Mexico's oil production declined. OPEC expects an increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil inventories increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. Technically, the short - term rebound is weak. Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the PG main contract closed at 4259 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, with the cost side bearish and the demand side having some resilience. The basis is high, and the price is under pressure [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased slightly, demand from downstream chemical industries was relatively stable, and inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the price of LPG still has room to decline. Technically, the short - term rebound is under pressure. Do not chase the rise, and go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Market Performance**: The L01 contract closed at 6707 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounded, but the supply was under pressure, the demand was weak, and the cost support was insufficient [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production increased seasonally, the downstream start - up rate decreased, and the oil price was expected to decline in the medium term [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, reduce short positions. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of L at [6750 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 contract closed at 6265 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals followed the cost side, with high inventory, weak demand, and the oil price still facing downward pressure [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories were high, the devices were restarting, and the external and internal demand was insufficient [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the low price level, reduce short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP at [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4491 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis was repaired, the social inventory was high, the upward drive was insufficient, but the low valuation provided support [26]. - **Fundamentals**: The anti - dumping was unlikely to be implemented, and the export orders increased. The trading returned to the weak fundamentals [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintained a high premium. Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of V at [4400 - 4550] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure was relieved, the demand was relatively good, but the cost was under pressure, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation in December [28]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance, the downstream polyester and weaving start - up rates were high, and the PX price might follow the decline of crude oil [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation and processing fees were not high. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA at [4650 - 4725] [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract closed at 3808 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic start - up rate decreased, the new devices were put into production, the supply pressure increased, and the demand was relatively good but the orders were weakening [30]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic and overseas device status changed, the inventory increased slightly, and the cost was under pressure [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG at [3880 - 3930] [31]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract position decreased slightly [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in Taicang stabilized, the port basis strengthened, the inventory decreased but was still at a high level. The supply pressure was large, the demand improved, and the cost support was weak [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic devices increased production, overseas devices maintained stability, downstream demand improved, and the inventory decreased [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at the low - valuation level. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract on dips [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure remained, the demand was mixed, the social inventory was high, and the export had been priced in. Be vigilant about the downward risk [38]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply was high, the domestic demand was weak before the year, the export was good, the inventory decreased slightly, and the cost was supported [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR at [1625 - 1655] [40]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 25, the NG main contract closed at 4.481 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 4.09% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to concerns about the return of Russian gas, putting pressure on the gas price. The demand entered the peak season, providing some support [44]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms increased, China's natural gas production increased, and US natural gas inventories decreased [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand is supported in the peak season, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG at [4.565 - 4.800] [45]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the BU main contract closed at 3043 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to crude oil. Affected by the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and South American geopolitics, there is still room for price compression [48]. - **Fundamentals**: The production plan decreased in December, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the off - season. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU at [2950 - 3050] [49]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1037 yuan/ton, up 2.3% [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold - repair expectation provides support, but the supply is difficult to decline further, and the demand is weak [53]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily melting volume remained stable, the real - estate market was weak, and the deep - processing orders were at a low level [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of FG at [990 - 1040] [53]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [55]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand weakened, the supply was in a loose pattern in the medium - to - long - term, and the market was in a bearish consolidation [54]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance or reduced production, the demand from the glass industry decreased, and the inventory was high [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Be cautious about short - selling at the low price level. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton in November, with both supply and demand decreasing, but supply reduction being larger. However, due to a large supply base and the supplement of spot market supply from warehouse receipt cancellation, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation, with a reverse market structure remaining. The trading strategy suggests trying long positions around 50,000 for futures, holding or taking profit on sell put options for options, and considering buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With a bullish view on tin prices in the short - term, as the fundamentals are relatively strong. It is recommended to hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of Myanmar's supply [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production reduction scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are likely to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton. Although the previous supply pressure has eased, the fundamentals do not provide strong upward momentum [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and other macro - drivers [8]. Nickel - The market may oscillate and repair, but the medium - term supply surplus still restricts the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short - term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - It is expected to oscillate, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton. Although there is some room for price repair at a low valuation, the driving force is limited. Attention should be paid to steel mill production reduction and nickel - iron prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main contract operating in the range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton. Although the market shows resilience around 90,000, there is limited new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of various industrial silicon products remained stable on November 25 compared to November 24, with the basis of some products showing a decline [1]. Monthly Spreads - The monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts remained unchanged on November 25 compared to November 24 [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% month - on - month, with Xinjiang's production increasing significantly, while Yunnan and Sichuan's production decreased. The production of polysilicon increased by 3.08%, while the production of organic silicon DMC and regenerative aluminum alloy decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon decreased significantly by 35.82% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory inventory and social inventory increased slightly, while the warehouse receipt inventory decreased [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - Polysilicon spot prices were stable, while battery cell prices declined, and the prices of mid - stream silicon wafers and battery cells were weak [2]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - Polysilicon futures oscillated upward, with the main contract rising to 54,730 yuan/ton. The spread structure showed a reverse market structure [2]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 2.59%, while monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08%. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers also showed certain changes [2]. Tin Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 0.58% on November 26 compared to the previous day, and the LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 19.15% [4]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of tin contracts changed significantly, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 107.14% [4]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, while refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% and exports decreased by 15.33% [4]. Inventory Changes - SHEF inventory decreased slightly, while social inventory increased [4]. Aluminum Price and Spreads - The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze River A00 aluminum increased slightly on November 26, and the spreads also changed [6]. Fundamental Data - In October, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production increased, while electrolytic aluminum exports decreased. The operating rates of some aluminum - related industries also showed certain changes [6]. Inventory Changes - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased, and LME inventory also decreased slightly [6]. Zinc Price and Spreads - The prices of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased slightly on November 26, and the spreads also changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85%, imports decreased by 16.94%, and exports increased by 243.79% [7]. Inventory Changes - China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased slightly [7]. Copper Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased on November 26, and the basis and spreads also changed [8]. Fundamental Data - In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62%, and imports decreased by 15.61%. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic mainstream ports increased [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - The prices of various nickel products increased slightly on November 26, and the spreads and basis also changed [9]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production decreased slightly, and imports decreased significantly. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory decreased [9]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, and the spreads changed [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the production of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots decreased, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly. The operating rates of some aluminum alloy industries decreased [11]. Inventory Changes - The weekly social inventory of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly, and the daily inventory in some regions decreased [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spreads - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained stable or increased slightly on November 26, and the spreads changed [13]. Fundamental Data - In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased slightly, while that in Indonesia increased slightly. Stainless steel imports increased, and exports decreased [13]. Inventory Changes - The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The prices of various lithium carbonate products decreased slightly on November 26, and the basis also decreased [15]. Monthly Spreads - The monthly spreads of lithium carbonate contracts changed [15]. Fundamental Data - In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73%, demand increased by 8.70%, imports increased by 21.86%, and exports increased by 63.05%. The total inventory decreased by 10.90% [15].

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has seen a significant rebound, with the main contract price rising over 60% in less than six months, driven by inventory depletion, increased demand, and tightening supply [1][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - Since October, the main contract price of lithium carbonate has consistently increased, surpassing 80,000 and 90,000 yuan per ton, reaching a peak of 102,500 yuan per ton on November 19, marking the highest level since June 2024 [1]. - The price trajectory for lithium carbonate has exhibited a clear "V" shape this year, dropping from around 77,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to below 60,000 yuan per ton mid-year, before recovering to near 100,000 yuan per ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The suspension of mining operations at CATL's Yichun lithium mine in August is viewed as a catalyst for the price rebound, leading to a significant increase in futures contracts and spot market prices [2]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's lithium division has called for a halt to vicious competition and emphasized the need for better coordination between upstream and downstream sectors, contributing to the upward price movement [2]. Group 3: Key Drivers of Demand - The strong rebound in lithium prices is fundamentally attributed to changes in supply and demand dynamics, with robust demand from the energy storage sector and uncertainties regarding the resumption of mining operations [4]. - The energy storage market has been experiencing high demand, with some companies operating at full capacity and orders extending into the next year [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - Despite the price increases, there is a growing divergence in market sentiment, with downstream companies adopting a cautious approach and engaging in limited purchasing due to the rapid price hikes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the main contract of lithium carbonate was changed from LC2601.GFE to LC2605.GFE, with a closing price of 96,340 yuan/ton. The spot price of lithium carbonate was 92,820 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous day, showing an overall upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The current basis was -4,640 points, a negative basis (spot discount), which was 3,380 points weaker than the previous day, and the basis had been oscillating overall in the past 10 trading days. The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate was 27,050 lots, an increase of 435 lots (+1.63%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts had been decreasing overall in the past 10 trading days. The resumption of production of lithium mines in Jiangxi had been inconsistent, and the market was skeptical about the actual increase, so the tight supply pattern at the lithium ore end remained unchanged [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 96,340 yuan/ton, up 940 yuan from the previous day and down 2,960 yuan from the previous week; the settlement price of the main contract was 97,460 yuan/ton, up 4,240 yuan from the previous day and down 700 yuan from the previous week. - **Lithium Spodumene**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian CIF China lithium spodumene concentrates increased by 70 dollars/ton compared with the previous day, while the prices of South African CIF China lithium spodumene ore remained unchanged. - **Lithium Mica**: The prices of various grades of lithium mica in the Chinese market increased compared with the previous week, but remained unchanged compared with the previous day. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 92,820 yuan/ton, up 860 yuan from the previous day and 3,880 yuan from the previous week. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The prices of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide and Xinjiang's 56.5% monohydrate lithium hydroxide increased by 230 yuan from the previous day, while the prices of other types of lithium hydroxide remained unchanged. - **Ternary Materials and Related Products**: The prices of ternary precursors and ternary materials remained unchanged compared with the previous day and the previous week. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some downstream products such as electrolyte, lithium iron phosphate, and cobalt acid lithium increased compared with the previous week, while the prices of others remained unchanged [6]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts showed the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts presented the price changes of manganese acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: Charts displayed the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures [8][10][16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PP**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **PX/PTA**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **MEG (Ethylene Glycol)**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **Methanol**: Sideways at the bottom, consider long positions on dips for 05 contract [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bearish [5] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [5] - **Glass**: Bearish rebound [5] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish consolidation [5] Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions ease, leading to a weakening oil price. Supply exceeds demand in the off - season, and there is pressure on the upside. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [1][8] - **LPG**: The decline in the cost - end oil price weakens the LPG trend. Supply and demand are unfavorable, and inventory is accumulating. Consider light - position short - selling [1] - **L**: Cost support weakens, and the bearish trend continues. Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and cost support is insufficient in the medium term. Reduce short positions at low prices and wait for rebounds to go short [1] - **PP**: Cost support weakens, and the bearish trend continues. Inventory is high, demand is weak, and oil prices may continue to fall in the medium term. Reduce short positions at low prices and wait for rebounds to go short [1] - **PVC**: The basis strengthens, and the price is in a bearish consolidation. Social inventory is high, and there is limited upward drive, but low - valuation support restricts further decline. Industries can hedge at high prices [1] - **PX/PTA**: Supply - side pressure eases due to maintenance, and demand is relatively good, but the cost side is under pressure. Consider long positions on dips [3] - **MEG**: Domestic device maintenance increases, and new device production may increase supply pressure. Demand is relatively good, but there is no upward drive. Consider short positions on rebounds [3] - **Methanol**: The market is in a sideways bottom - grinding phase. Supply pressure is large, but demand improves marginally. Cost support is weak. Consider taking profit on short positions and long positions on dips for the 05 contract [3] - **Urea**: Supply pressure remains, and demand is mixed. The export factor has been priced in. Consider short positions on rebounds [3] - **Natural Gas**: Geopolitical tensions ease, putting pressure on gas prices, but the demand side has support in the consumption season [5] - **Asphalt**: The cost - end oil price is weak, and the supply - demand balance is loose. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [5] - **Glass**: Cold - repair expectations provide support, but supply reduction is difficult, and demand is weak. Consider taking profit on short positions in the short term and going short on rebounds in the long term [5] - **Soda Ash**: Supply and demand both decline, and the long - term supply is in a loose pattern. Consider short positions on rebounds and short the 01 alkali - glass spread [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.51%, Brent down 1.47%, and SC up 0.40% [7] - **Basic Logic**: Downstream refined - oil profits are good, but supply exceeds demand, and inventory is accumulating. Geopolitical tensions ease, leading to a price drop [8] - **Fundamentals**: In December, Iraq's exports will decline by 12%. OPEC forecasts demand growth in 2025 and 2026. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 342 million barrels in the week ending November 14 [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ expansion may suppress prices. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [440 - 450] [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On November 25, the PG main contract closed at 4231 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [12] - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is trending downward. Supply and demand are unfavorable, and inventory is accumulating. The basis is high, and the price is over - estimated [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and there is room for price compression. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [14] L - **Market Review**: The L01 main contract closed at 6762 yuan/ton, down 0.5% [16] - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounds, but supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. Cost support is insufficient in the medium term [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions in the short term and wait for rebounds to go short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6850] [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP01 main contract closed at 6317 yuan/ton, down 0.9% [20] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamental situation is weak due to the decline in coking coal prices. Inventory is high, and demand is weak. Oil prices may continue to fall in the medium term [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices and wait for rebounds to go short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [22] PVC - **Market Review**: The V01 main contract closed at 4491 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [23] - **Basic Logic**: The basis is repaired, and the short - term market returns to a weak fundamental situation. Social inventory is high, and there is limited upward drive, but low - valuation support restricts further decline [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for positive drivers. Pay attention to the range of V [4400 - 4550] [25] PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [26] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure eases due to maintenance, and demand is relatively good, but the cost side is under pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider long positions on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4610 - 4675] [28] MEG - **Market Review**: The EG01 contract closed at 3901 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [29] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance increases, and new device production may increase supply pressure. Demand is relatively good, but there is no upward drive. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3810 - 3885] [31] Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract's position decreased slightly to 131.3 million lots, still at a high level in the past five years [34] - **Basic Logic**: The spot price stabilizes, and the basis strengthens slightly. Supply pressure is large, but demand improves marginally. Cost support is weak. The market is in a sideways bottom - grinding phase [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions at low valuations. Consider long positions on dips for the 05 contract [34] Urea - **Market Review**: The UR01 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [37] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains, and demand is mixed. The export factor has been priced in. Inventory is high, and there is a risk of price decline [38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1615 - 1645] [40] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 24, the NG main contract closed at 4.672 dollars/million British thermal units, down 1.50% [43] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions ease, putting pressure on gas prices, but the demand side has support in the consumption season [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.344 - 4.603]. The demand side has support, but the supply side is sufficient, and gas prices are under pressure [45] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 25, the BU main contract closed at 3068 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [47] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is weak. Supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season. There is room for price compression [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [3000 - 3100] [48] Glass - **Market Review**: The FG01 main contract closed at 1014 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [50] - **Basic Logic**: Cold - repair expectations provide support, but supply reduction is difficult, and demand is weak [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions in the short term and go short on rebounds in the long term. Pay attention to the range of FG [990 - 1040] [52] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA01 main contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [54] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand both decline, and the long - term supply is in a loose pattern. Inventory is high [56] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for rebounds to go short in the long term and short the 01 alkali - glass spread. Pay attention to the range of SA [1170 - 1220] [56]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | . | 1万吨 ， | 环比持平 。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | | 环比减少4 ， | 76% . . | 需求持续低迷 | 多 . | | | | | | | | 晶硅库存为27 1万吨 . | 处于低位 ， ， | | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池片亏损 | 组 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment dream of the first batch of middle-class buyers of seaside properties has completely shattered, as these once "scarce assets" have drastically depreciated in value, leading to significant financial losses for many [3][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Ten years ago, the "seaside property investment craze" attracted many middle-class individuals, who invested their life savings with hopes of vacationing, retirement, and asset appreciation [3][4]. - The market has shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market due to an oversupply of seaside properties, resulting in high inventory and vacancy rates, which has disrupted price equilibrium [7][8]. - The influx of new seaside property projects has led to a significant supply exceeding actual demand, causing property values to plummet [7][8]. Group 2: Buyer Experiences - Individual stories illustrate the harsh realities faced by buyers, such as a buyer who purchased a seaside property for 300 million yuan, only to find its market value had dropped to 150 million yuan [4][5]. - Another buyer, who invested 190 million yuan in a seaside retirement home, faced severe financial strain due to high mortgage payments and poor living conditions, leading to a significant loss when attempting to sell [5][6]. - A buyer who thought they were making a savvy investment in 2019 found that the market had turned against them, with property values dropping significantly due to oversupply and economic downturns [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Lessons - The collective experiences of these buyers highlight critical lessons about real estate investment, emphasizing the importance of residential consumption attributes as the foundation of property value [11][12]. - Liquidity is essential for all assets; properties that cannot be quickly sold, regardless of their paper value, are essentially worthless [11][12]. - Caution is advised against investments that package dreams as financial products, as these often mask underlying deficiencies in location, amenities, and fundamentals [11][12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large, but considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and monitor macro changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [3]. Zinc - The downward pressure on the domestic supply side has eased. The price is likely to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 22,800 [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to macro drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 85,500 - 86,800 [9]. Nickel - The macro situation is stable, and the fundamentals are weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the price may fluctuate and recover. In the medium term, the supply glut restricts the upside potential, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Policy - driven factors are difficult to have an immediate impact. The cost support is weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 12,200 - 12,600 [15][16]. Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [18]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The market is likely to face inventory accumulation pressure in November, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term market may maintain a weak and oscillating adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 86,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [20]. Polysilicon - The price is expected to remain in a high - level range oscillation, maintaining a forward market structure. For trading strategies, consider going long around 50,000 yuan/ton in the futures market and holding or closing profitable positions for sell put options in the options market [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin increased by 0.76% to 293,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread rose by 0.71% to 95.67 dollars/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49% to 11,632 tons, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [2]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory decreased by 0.46% to 6,229 tons, while social inventory increased by 2.83% to 7,654 tons [3]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.27% to 22,380 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 4,280 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and the export volume increased by 243.79% to 0.85 million tons [7]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 3.58% to 15.10 million tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.21% to 4.7 million tons [7]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.49% to 86,235 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 858 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.80% to 70.49 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1.09% to 11.06 million tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.90% to 117,750 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 3.57% to 4,350 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel decreased by 4.84% to 110,810 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased by 1.92% to 39,795 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.18% to 253,482 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,700 yuan/ton, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 7.76% to 235 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.89% to 49.29 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 0.83% to 6.44 million tons [15]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.09% to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 1,868 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [17]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 5.11% to 61.30 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.37% to 54.6 million tons [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,350 yuan/ton, and the Foshan broken primary aluminum scrap - to - refined spread remained unchanged at 1,749 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 7.06% to 7.64 million tons [18]. - **Inventory**: The regenerated aluminum alloy weekly social inventory increased by 1.44% to 5.65 million tons [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spreads**: The price of industrial silicon decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 100% to 0 [19]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [19]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased by 0.37% to 54.80 million tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.02% to 20.76 million tons [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.16% to 92,150 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 1.65% to 1,071 dollars/ton [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and the demand increased by 8.70% to 126,961 tons [20]. - **Inventory**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons in October [20]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spreads**: The N - type polysilicon spot price decreased by 0.10% to 52,250 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract decreased by 0.08% to 23,315 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 1.12% to 2.71 million tons, and the import volume increased by 11.96% to 0.14 million tons in October [22]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.50% to 27.10 million tons, and the polysilicon warehouse receipt decreased by 3.07% to 7,270 [22].