Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, based on current market dynamics, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][11]. - For some commodities, such as PX, PTA, and short - term urea, they are in a state of high - level or short - term oscillation, with specific influencing factors analyzed for each [11][48]. - For other commodities, the report points out potential risks and opportunities, like the high valuation of styrene and the need to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [50]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: International oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties. PX prices fell, PTA load was at 78.2%, and MEG domestic production was at a high level [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX trend intensity is 1, PTA is 1, and MEG is 0 [11]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is in a unilateral high - level oscillation market, and attention should be paid to positive spreads. PTA is also in a high - level oscillation market, and MEG's medium - term trend is weak [11][12]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices were relatively stable, and import prices increased slightly [14]. - **Industry News**: Domestic production areas were at the end of the rubber - tapping season. Overseas raw material prices rose, and port inventories increased as expected [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Rubber trend intensity is 0 [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions changed. Spot prices, such as butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, increased [17]. - **Industry News**: Butadiene port inventories decreased, and synthetic rubber inventories decreased slightly. Short - term butadiene and synthetic rubber may run strongly [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Synthetic rubber trend intensity is 1 [19]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell slightly, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were relatively stable [20]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Raw material prices were stable, and PE process profits improved. Supply and demand pressure remained in the medium - term [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [22]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed slightly, and basis and spreads were relatively stable. Spot prices were mostly unchanged [23]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Cost was strong, and there was a valuation difference between PE and PP. Supply and demand were in a game, and attention should be paid to PDH device changes [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: PP trend intensity is 0 [25]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices and basis were provided [26]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The previous rebound was difficult to sustain, and it was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern with weak demand [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Caustic soda trend intensity is - 1 [30]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions increased. Spot prices were relatively stable [34]. - **Industry News**: The futures market was active, and the spot market was stable. The overall supply and demand changed little [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pulp trend intensity is 0 [34]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were stable [38]. - **Spot News**: Domestic glass prices were mostly stable, and enterprise sales were average [38]. - **Trend Intensity**: Glass trend intensity is 0 [38]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes decreased. Spot prices were regionally adjusted [41]. - **Spot News**: The domestic methanol market was regionally adjusted, and port inventories continued to accumulate [43]. - **Trend Intensity**: Methanol trend intensity is 0 [44]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell slightly, and trading volumes decreased. Spot prices were mostly stable [46]. - **Industry News**: Enterprise inventories were basically flat, and the market entered a short - term oscillation pattern [47][48]. - **Trend Intensity**: Urea trend intensity is 0 [48]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed, and basis and spreads were provided. Spot prices were at a high level [49]. - **Spot News**: The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [50]. - **Trend Intensity**: Styrene trend intensity is 0 [49]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose slightly, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were stable [54]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market rose slightly, with high supply and weak demand [54]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soda ash trend intensity is 0 [54]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed, and trading volumes and positions were provided. PDH and MTBE operating rates were also given [57]. - **Market Information**: CP paper prices fell, and there were domestic device maintenance plans [62]. - **Trend Intensity**: LPG trend intensity is 0, and propylene trend intensity is 0 [61]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices and basis were provided. Social inventories increased [65]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The market was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and it was in a weak oscillation [65]. - **Trend Intensity**: PVC trend intensity is - 1 [66]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose, and trading volumes and positions changed. Spot prices and spreads were provided [68]. - **Trend Intensity**: Fuel oil trend intensity is 0, and low - sulfur fuel oil trend intensity is 0 [68]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions changed. Freight rates and exchange rates were provided [70]. - **Macro News**: There were geopolitical events such as Trump's threat to Iran and Yemen's personnel changes [78]. - **Trend Intensity**: Container Freight Index (European Line) trend intensity is 1 [83]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions changed. Spot prices were stable [84]. - **Spot News**: Short - fiber futures adjusted weakly, and bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable [84][85]. - **Trend Intensity**: Short - fiber trend intensity is 0, and bottle - chip trend intensity is 0 [85]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices were stable, and cost - profit data changed slightly. Futures prices fell [87]. - **Industry News**: Market prices in Shandong and Guangdong were stable, and demand was weak [88][90]. - **Trend Intensity**: Offset printing paper trend intensity is - 1 [87]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and port inventories increased [91]. - **News**: Pure benzene port inventories increased, and spot prices rose [92][93]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pure benzene trend intensity is 0 [91].

3.1 众多因素支撑黄金长牛 美联储从 2024 年 9 月开始降息，截至目前已经降息 6 次，累计 175 个基点。美联储主席鲍威尔即将卸任，特朗普已经部分掌控了美联储人事，特别是美联 储理事的任命，且都属于鸽派阵营。在此背景下，2026 年即将上任的新任美联储主席，令押注降息延续的投资者充满期待。 | 货币政策方面 | | --- | | 机构名称 | 预测目标 | 时间框架 | | --- | --- | --- | | 高盛 | 4900 美元 / 盎司 | 2026年 12月 | | 瑞银 | 4500美元/盎司 | 2026年中期 | | 摩根大通 | 5055 美元 / 盎司 | 2026年第四季度 | | 美国银行 | 5000 美元 / 盎司 | 2026年 | | 法业银行 | 5000美元/盎司 | 2026 年底 | | 中令公司 | 突破 5000 美元 / 盎司 | 2026年 | 综合来看，2026 年黄金受降息加速、美债和美元信用的影响，黄金明年下半年的目标看向 5000~5200 美元。 具体来看，2026 年上半年可能会降息两次，即 3 月和 6 月各降息 25 个基点。受 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Venezuela, have led to a significant increase in asphalt prices in Shandong, China, although the impact on the refining industry is not considered fatal [1][6]. Price Fluctuations - Asphalt prices have risen by nearly 100 yuan per ton recently, with current prices at 3050 yuan per ton for 70 asphalt, up from 2900 yuan per ton just days earlier [1][2]. - The price increase began on January 4, with an overall rise of approximately 300 yuan [2]. Impact of Venezuelan Oil Supply - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela, exacerbated by U.S. military actions and sanctions, has severely disrupted the country's oil export capabilities, with over 17 million barrels of Venezuelan oil stranded at sea as of January 5 [3]. - Venezuela holds 300 billion barrels of oil reserves, accounting for 17% of global production, and its heavy crude oil, particularly Merey, is essential for asphalt and marine fuel production [4]. Import Dynamics - In September 2023, Shandong independent refineries imported about 360,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil daily, with projections of 400,000 barrels per day in February 2024 [5]. - The supply of Merey crude oil has been significantly affected, leading to sharp increases in asphalt prices [6]. Industry Response - The price fluctuations in asphalt are viewed as a normal response to supply and demand disruptions, according to experts [6]. - Despite the critical role of Merey crude in asphalt production, the overall demand for asphalt in infrastructure projects has been weak, which has mitigated the impact of raw material supply disruptions [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, ethylene glycol, natural gas, glass, soda ash [1][3][6] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol, urea [3] - **Bearish Rebound**: LPG, L, PP, asphalt, glass, soda ash [1][6] - **Oscillating Bullish**: PVC, glass [1][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical factors are the main drivers of price movements in the energy and chemical industries. For example, supply surplus leads to downward pressure on oil prices, while geopolitical events in South America cause short - term price rebounds [1][9]. - Cost factors play a significant role. For instance, the increase in Saudi CP contract prices boosts LPG prices in the short - term, and the weakening of oil prices affects the cost of asphalt [1][15]. - Seasonal factors and market expectations also impact prices. Seasonal off - peak demand and inventory changes influence the market, and market expectations affect trading strategies [1][9]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 2.04%, Brent down 1.72%, and SC up 0.12% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical events in South America and the Middle East do not change the supply surplus situation. In the core driving factor, supply surplus during the off - peak season and increasing global crude oil inventories lead to downward pressure on oil prices [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of SC [420 - 430] [11]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 6, the PG main contract closed at 4195 yuan/ton, up 0.87% [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Saudi's increase in the latest CP contract price boosts gas prices in the short - term. In the long - term, it is anchored to oil prices and faces upward pressure. Supply increases with rising refinery starts, and downstream chemical demand provides some support [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [16]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: The L05 closing price was 6579 yuan/ton, up 2.0% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term expectations dominate the market. The shutdown ratio rises, and the weighted gross profit of LL is compressed. However, the supply is still sufficient. The demand for shed films weakens, and there is pressure to reduce inventory [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of L [6500 - 6750] [19]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 closing price was 6423 yuan/ton, up 1.5% [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The intensification of maintenance reduces short - term supply pressure. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance. The commercial total inventory is decreasing at a high level, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PP [6400 - 6550] [23]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 closing price was 4919 yuan/ton, up 3.3% [25]. - **Basic Logic**: The market trades on the Shaanxi differential electricity price notice, and calcium carbide is expected to strengthen. The fundamental situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Cost support strengthens, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be bullish in the short - term and pay attention to inventory changes. Pay attention to the range of V [4800 - 5000] [27]. 3.6 PTA - **Market Performance**: As of December 31, TA05 closed at 5110 yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation has improved, and processing fees and profits have increased. The supply side has some device restarts, and the demand side is currently good but expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5120 - 5250] [30]. 3.7 MEG - **Market Performance**: The EG05 closing price was 3609 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic device load has increased, and the demand is good but expected to weaken. The port inventory is rising, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January. The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and pay attention to opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3830 - 3920] [33]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract reduced positions and rose [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply side has some changes in domestic and overseas device starts, and the demand side is slightly weak. The cost support is weakly stable, and the supply - demand situation is slightly loose [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2250 - 2349] [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: The main contract closing price was 1749 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has stabilized. The supply side is expected to face increasing pressure as some maintenance devices resume production. The demand side is weak in the short - term, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The domestic and overseas arbitrage window is not closed [41][42]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1750 - 1800] [43]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 6, the NG main contract closed at 3.523 dollars/million British thermal units, down 2.63% [45]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand side enters the consumption peak season, but the relatively mild weather in the US reduces demand support. The supply side is relatively abundant, putting pressure on prices [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [3.250 - 3.680] [46]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 6, the BU main contract closed at 3144 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [49]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical events in South America lead to short - term supply disruptions of asphalt raw materials. The cost - profit situation improves, and the supply side has a decrease in production volume. The demand side is in the off - peak season, and the inventory is rising [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should be cautious due to supply uncertainties. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3250] [51]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 closing price was 1092 yuan/ton, up 1.0% [53]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term cold - repair expectations support the market. The fundamental situation is a combination of weak supply and demand, with declining daily melting volume and negative profits for all three processes. The real estate market is in an adjustment period [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1100 - 1150] [55]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 closing price was 1190 yuan/ton, up 1.1% [57]. - **Basic Logic**: The market sentiment improves, but the demand for heavy soda ash weakens due to the continuous decline in the daily melting volume of float glass. The long - term supply is abundant, and the demand support is insufficient [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SA [1200 - 1250] [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, in the off-season of consumption, supply and demand are both weak, and winter storage is yet to come. With enhanced macro confidence and a strong stock market boosting market sentiment, futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to hold long positions for medium-term trading, and those with empty positions should avoid chasing up or selling down, instead adopting a volatile trading approach [3]. - For the iron ore sector, although the overall output of the five major steel products increased last week and apparent demand rebounded month-on-month, the market is still in the off-season, and molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The supply is at a high level, and rising port inventories suppress futures prices. However, technically, the 05 contract is clearly supported by the 10-day moving average, and a medium-term upward trend is unfolding. It is recommended to hold long positions for medium-term trading [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar and hot-rolled coil production increased, and the total output of the five major varieties rose month-on-month. Overall inventory continued to decline. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, while hot-rolled coil's continued to rise. Due to a significant drop in steel mill margins and the off-season, steel production may continue to decline. The recent sharp rebound in coking coal and coke futures prices has raised cost support for the market [3]. - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices showed mixed trends. The basis and spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures also changed. For example, the rebar futures 10 - 1 spread was 74 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous value [3]. - **Production and Operation**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, and the average daily molten iron output was 227.43 million tons. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 38.1%. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils increased, while the capacity utilization and operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 2.50% to 850.78 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 1.05% to 381.37 million tons. Rebar and hot-rolled coil social inventories decreased, while hot-rolled coil steel mill inventory increased [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties increased by 0.89% to 841.02 million tons. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, while hot-rolled coil's increased [3]. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, and apparent demand rebounded month-on-month. However, in the off-season, molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. Steel mills' production cuts suppress raw material prices, and the pre-holiday restocking demand will come later this year [5]. - **Supply**: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories suppresses futures prices [5]. - **Price and Spread**: Iron ore spot and futures prices mostly increased. The basis and spreads of iron ore futures also changed. For example, the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was -15 yuan/dry ton, up 25.5 yuan from the previous value [6]. - **Shipping and Inventory**: Overseas iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased. The arrival volume at the six northern ports increased by 13.70% to 1512.9 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.71% to 15970.89 million tons [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the threat against Iran and a bullish market sentiment, the energy and chemical sectors are strong today, but it is still recommended to treat different varieties differently in the follow - up [1] - The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil, and the market may return to the downward drive caused by the oversupply pressure in the first quarter [2][3][4] - Asphalt can be a key long - position variety, while PX - PTA is in a short - term correction and waiting for the next long - entry opportunity, and styrene can be a key short - position variety [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil as Venezuela's production accounts for about 1% and daily exports are 50 - 800,000 barrels, and it lacks the geographical advantage of the Strait of Hormuz. After the event, the market may return to the downward drive of the first - quarter oversupply pressure [2][3][4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions, but the short - term downward structure remains intact. The short - term pressure is at the 436 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [4] (2) Asphalt - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has a substantial impact on domestic asphalt raw materials. Venezuelan crude oil exports are paralyzed, and the main domestic asphalt raw material, Venezuelan heavy oil, faces a real supply cut. The asphalt market faces dual upward drivers of supply reduction and cost increase. [7] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, and the trading volume has been well - matched since yesterday's gap - up opening. The short - term support is at the 2990 level. The hourly - level strategy is to hold half of the long positions and set the stop - profit at 2990 [7] (3) Styrene - Logic: The entire styrene industry chain has high inventory. The high inventory of upstream pure benzene and weak downstream 3S demand, along with the industry's over - capacity, may lead to a price decline if the expected January export increase is false [10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, and the 15 - minute level shows a downward structure. The short - term support is below 6700. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and hold the 15 - minute - level short positions with a stop - loss at 6835 [11][13] (4) Rubber - Logic: The seasonal inventory of domestic natural rubber is increasing rapidly, and the downstream tire inventory is high, so there is no significant upward driver [15] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rose slightly with increased positions today. The short - term support is raised to the 15550 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [15] (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Synthetic rubber maintains a high - operating rate, with a slight inventory reduction due to traders' restocking. However, the high supply pressure of butadiene and high downstream tire inventory limit the upward space [17] - Technical Analysis: Both the daily - and hourly - levels show upward structures. It rose slightly with increased positions today. The short - term support is raised to the 11400 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [17] (6) PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. However, due to the low acceptance of high prices by downstream polyester, it is facing a short - term correction. There is an opportunity for a second low - buying in the medium - term [20] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with increased positions today but did not break through the short - term pressure at 7390. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [20][23] (7) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong, but it is facing a short - term correction due to downstream resistance. There is an opportunity for a second low - buying in the medium - term [25] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with increased positions today but did not break through the short - term pressure at 5205. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [25] (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastic belongs are still weak. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term hedging of long aromatics (PX, PTA) and short olefins (PP, plastic) [28] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rose slightly with increased positions today. The short - term support is raised to the 6305 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [28] (9) Methanol - Logic: Methanol port inventory is at a historically high level, and although there is an expected reduction in Iranian ship arrivals, the downstream MTO profit is weakening, and the fundamental driving force is still weak. The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on methanol [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows an upward structure. It rose sharply with increased positions today. The short - term support is at the 2200 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [31] (10) PVC - Logic: The reality of high production, weak demand, and high inventory of PVC continues, but the current valuation is low. Pay attention to the expected trading of anti - involution and policy support. The news of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi has stimulated a short - term upward movement [34] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rose sharply with increased positions today, hitting a new high. The short - term support is raised to the 4725 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold long positions and set the stop - profit at 4725 [34] (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The weak coal price in the cost side and the continuous inventory increase in ports, along with weakening demand, do not provide a driving force for a significant reversal [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [36] (12) Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where plastic belongs are weak. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term hedging of long aromatics and short olefins [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level downward structure is being challenged. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today, breaking through the short - term pressure at 6545. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [39] (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The inventory pressure of soda ash has weakened slightly, but the over - supply pattern remains, and there is no significant upward driving force without an expected increase in terminal demand [40] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It rebounded slightly near the support level today. The short - term support is at the 1170 level, and the short - term upward structure remains intact. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [40] (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand driving force is downward, but there is no space for chasing short positions [42] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is unclear. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today. Pay attention to the 15 - minute downward structure, and the 15 - minute pressure is at the 2260 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [42]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term macro environment has diverse characteristics with policy dividends, economic recovery, RMB appreciation, and geopolitical disturbances coexisting. The futures market is in a resonance stage of policy implementation, economic recovery, and liquidity easing, presenting structural opportunities in multiple sectors, but also hiding potential risks [2] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and export and import enterprises are given corresponding hedging strategies [4] - The short - term trend of stock indices is likely to continue to be strong, but attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical risks [5] - The short - term performance of treasury bonds may be weak, but the value of long - term bonds will recover after adjustment, and medium - term long positions can be held [6] - The short - term price of container shipping on the European line is expected to remain high and volatile, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of price increases and geopolitical risks [10] - Precious metals are expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be short - term callback risks due to index parameter adjustment [13] - The copper price has reached a new high, and investors are given corresponding trading strategies [18] - The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium - to - long - term, while alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and attention can be paid to the spread between cast aluminum alloy and aluminum [20] - The zinc price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term [20] - The nickel - stainless steel market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the risk of callback [21] - The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short - term, and interval operations are recommended [22] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to have opportunities for long - position layout in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to the replenishment progress of downstream enterprises [23] - Industrial silicon is in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term, but has the value of long - position layout in the medium - to - long - term; the spot price of polysilicon has increased, and attention should be paid to the price sustainability and terminal winning bid situation [25] - The lead price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short - term [26] - The steel price is expected to be in a volatile trend, and the price ranges of rebar and hot - rolled coil are estimated [27] - The iron ore price is expected to be in a volatile operation due to the balance between high supply and rigid demand [29] - The price of coking coal and coke may be affected by factors such as winter storage and supply recovery, and attention should be paid to the subsequent supply situation [31] - The ferroalloy price may be adjusted in the short - term, but there is cost support at the bottom [33] - The pulp and offset paper markets are recommended to be observed first, and pulp can consider short - selling opportunities in the short - term, while offset paper should pay attention to the risk of chasing high prices [36] - The LPG price is supported by geopolitical risks in the short - term, and attention should be paid to overseas events and potential domestic PDH maintenance [38] - The PX - PTA market is expected to be in a tight pattern in the first half of 2026, but there may be a phased callback, and it is recommended to buy on dips [42] - The MEG - bottle chip market is under pressure in terms of valuation before the realization of the macro narrative, and the excess supply expectation will continue to dominate [46] - The methanol price is likely to start an upward - trending shock stage [48] - The PP market has improved in the short - term, but there is still pressure from the expected inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to be in a volatile pattern [51] - The PE market is in a situation of both supply and demand reduction, and the supply pressure relief brings some upward momentum, but the lack of demand support may limit the upward space [54] - The pure benzene market is in an over - supply situation, and the styrene market has some positive factors, but it is not recommended to chase high prices [56] - The asphalt price may be strong in the short - term due to supply disturbances [58] - The synthetic rubber market may be in a strong - trending shock in the short - term, but the fundamental driving force is limited [60] - The soda ash, glass, and caustic soda markets are all in a weak state, and their prices are expected to be in a low - level shock [61][62][63] - The log price is in a range - trading state, and a low - buying and high - selling strategy can be adopted [65] - The propylene price may be supported by cost in the short - term, but the upward space is limited before the fundamental improvement [66] - The pig price is under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the second - fattening behavior and the change of the standard - fat price difference [69] - The oilseed market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness, and a 35 - positive spread strategy can be held [70][72] - The oil market is in a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to the production in producing areas and the information of the biodiesel market [73] - The cotton price may be adjusted in the short - term, but there is still room for increase in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to the policy adjustment [75] - The sugar price is under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the fluctuation of the raw sugar price [77] - The egg price may show a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking [79] - The apple price is expected to rise further in both near - and far - term contracts due to the shortage of delivery products [81] - The jujube price may be in a low - level shock in the short - term, and the domestic supply is abundant in the medium - to - long - term, so the price will be under pressure [83] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: On the previous trading day, domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results, with precious metals leading the gains. International precious metals and London base metals also rose, and oil prices increased. There were various market news, including the progress of the comprehensive prevention and control system for financial fraud in the capital market, Trump's "tax - increase" threat to India, and the statements of central bank governors [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB against the US dollar continued to appreciate. The appreciation was supported by seasonal settlement demand and market expectations. The central bank's attitude was crucial, and attention should be paid to the next Fed chairperson. Export and import enterprises were given corresponding hedging strategies [4] - **Stock Indices**: The stock indices rose significantly with heavy trading volume. The market sentiment was boosted by the performance of Chinese assets during the New Year's Day holiday and the easing of the capital market. The short - term trend was expected to remain strong, but attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures were weak on Monday. The market was affected by factors such as the rise of the A - share market and concerns about new bond supply. The central bank's bond - buying scale was lower than expected. Medium - term long positions could be held, and short - term trading could wait for oversold buying opportunities [6] - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The container shipping index (European line) futures rose on the first trading day after the holiday. The market was in a game between the pre - Spring Festival peak season and the implementation of price increases. The short - term price was expected to be high and volatile, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of price increases and geopolitical risks [7][10] Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium rose significantly. The price was affected by geopolitical conflicts, index parameter adjustment, Fed monetary policy, and supply - demand fundamentals. There was a risk of short - term callback due to index parameter adjustment, but the medium - to - long - term trend was still upward [12][13] - **Gold & Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rose. The short - term trend was in a high - level shock, and the medium - to - long - term was bullish. Attention should be paid to data such as non - farm payrolls and index weight adjustment [14][15] - **Copper**: The copper price reached a new high. The futures market had a net inflow of funds, and the copper market attracted 4 billion yuan. Investors were given corresponding trading strategies [16][18] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price was affected by funds and supply - demand expectations, and was expected to be volatile and strong in the medium - to - long - term. Alumina was in an over - supply situation and was recommended to be shorted on rallies. Cast aluminum alloy was recommended to pay attention to the spread with aluminum [19][20] - **Zinc**: The zinc price was strong. The short - term core contradiction was the tight domestic raw material supply, but the supply was expected to be loose in the long - term. The price was expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term [20] - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The nickel - stainless steel market was volatile. The market was affected by factors such as Indonesian policies and the off - season of the new energy market. Attention should be paid to the risk of callback [21] - **Tin**: The tin price was strong, mainly driven by macro and capital sentiment. The short - term upward space was limited, and it was expected to be in a wide - range shock [22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The market inquiry increased, and attention should be paid to the replenishment progress of downstream enterprises. There were opportunities for long - position layout in the medium - to - long - term [22][23] - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon was in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term, but had the value of long - position layout in the medium - to - long - term. The spot price of polysilicon increased, and attention should be paid to the price sustainability and terminal winning bid situation [23][25] - **Lead**: The lead price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply was decreasing, and the demand was lacking new drivers. The price was expected to be in a shock range in the short - term [26] Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price was in a weak - trending shock. The steel production increased slightly, and the demand was expected to weaken after the holiday. The iron ore port inventory continued to accumulate, and the coking coal supply was relatively loose. The steel price was expected to be in a volatile trend [27] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was in an intraday shock. The supply was high, and the demand was rigid. The price was expected to be in a volatile operation [28][29] - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking coal and coke markets were in a downward shock. The coking coal inventory structure improved, and the import pressure might ease in January. The coke price was affected by factors such as the profit of coking plants and the production of steel mills [30][31] - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The ferroalloy price was adjusted slightly. The production increased slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The price was under pressure, but there was cost support at the bottom [32][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp futures price was volatile, and the offset paper futures price was upward. The pulp market was relatively stable, and the offset paper was affected by cost and price - increase letters. It was recommended to observe first, and pulp could consider short - selling opportunities in the short - term [35][36] - **LPG**: The LPG price was supported by geopolitical risks in the short - term. The supply was tight, and the demand was relatively stable. Attention should be paid to overseas events and potential domestic PDH maintenance [36][38] - **PTA - PX**: The PX supply was expected to be high, and the PTA production was reduced. The PX - PTA market was expected to be in a tight pattern in the first half of 2026, but there may be a phased callback, and it was recommended to buy on dips [39][42] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The MEG supply increased slightly, and the demand was weak. The market was under pressure in terms of valuation before the realization of the macro narrative, and the excess supply expectation will continue to dominate [44][46] - **Methanol**: The methanol price rose rapidly. The market was affected by geopolitical risks and the change of inventory expectations. The price was likely to start an upward - trending shock stage [47][48] - **PP**: The PP market improved in the short - term. The supply pressure was relieved, and the demand increased. But there was still pressure from the expected inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and the price was expected to be in a volatile pattern [50][51] - **PE**: The PE market was in a situation of both supply and demand reduction. The supply pressure was relieved, and the demand increased slightly. But the demand support was insufficient, and the upward space was limited [53][54] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The pure benzene inventory continued to accumulate, and the market was in an over - supply situation. The styrene supply decreased in the near - term, and the demand increased. It was not recommended to chase high prices [55][56] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price rose. The supply was affected by the US - Venezuela conflict, and the price was expected to be strong in the short - term [57][58] - **Rubber**: The synthetic rubber price rose. The price was affected by the cost of butadiene and geopolitical risks. The short - term trend was strong, but the fundamental driving force was limited [60] - **Soda Ash & Glass & Caustic Soda**: The soda ash, glass, and caustic soda markets were all in a weak state. The soda ash was in an over - supply situation, the glass inventory was high, and the caustic soda demand was weak. Their prices were expected to be in a low - level shock [61][62][63] - **Log**: The log price was in a range - trading state. The inventory was decreasing, and the spot price was supported by low inventory. A low - buying and high - selling strategy could be adopted [64][65] - **Propylene**: The propylene price was supported by cost in the short - term. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand was stable. The upward space was limited before the fundamental improvement [66] Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The pig price was under pressure. The supply was controllable, and the consumption was weak. Attention should be paid to the second - fattening behavior and the change of the standard - fat price difference [69] - **Oilseeds**: The oilseed market showed a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The import soybean supply was affected by factors such as arrival time and procurement. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets had different supply - demand situations. A 35 - positive spread strategy could be held [70][72] - **Oils**: The oil market was in a wide - range shock. The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil markets had different supply - demand situations. Attention should be paid to the production in producing areas and the information of the biodiesel market [73] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose. The domestic cotton supply was expected to be tight, and the demand was expected to increase. The short - term price may be adjusted, but there was still room for increase in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the policy adjustment [74][75] - **Sugar**: The sugar price was under pressure. The international and domestic sugar markets had different supply - demand situations. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of the raw sugar price [76][77] - **Eggs**: The egg price rose. The egg production decreased, and the demand increased. The price may show a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking [78][79] - **Apples**: The apple price rose significantly. The market was affected by the shortage of delivery products. The price of both near - and far - term contracts was expected to rise further [80][81] - **Jujubes**: The jujube price was in a low - level shock. The domestic supply was abundant, and the price was expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long - term [82][83]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish rebound [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bullish with an upward bias [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical uncertainties in South America and the Middle East have increased, leading to a short - term rebound in oil prices. However, the overall situation of crude oil supply surplus remains unchanged, and prices are under long - term pressure. Other energy - related products are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand relationship, and inventory, showing different trends [1][9]. - For chemical products, the supply - demand relationship, cost support, and device operation status are the main factors affecting their prices. Some products are expected to have short - term rebounds, while others are in a weak or bearish trend [1][2]. Summaries According to Different Categories Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined. WTI dropped 0.22%, Brent fell 0.26%, and SC rose 0.69%. The latest prices of WTI, Brent, and SC are $57.95/barrel, $61.33/barrel, and 438.6 yuan/barrel respectively [7][8]. - Fundamental Logic: Geopolitical factors in South America and the Middle East have led to a short - term rise in oil prices, but the core issue of supply surplus in the off - season remains. Global crude oil inventories are increasing, and US crude oil and refined product inventories are also accumulating [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of SC [425 - 435] [11]. LPG - Market Performance: On January 5th, the PG main contract closed at 4159 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China increased [14]. - Fundamental Logic: Saudi Arabia raised the latest CP contract price, which short - term boosted the gas price. In the long - term, it is anchored to oil prices and is under pressure. Supply has increased, and downstream chemical demand has resilience [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [16]. L - Market Performance: The L05 contract price decreased slightly. The L05 basis was - 69 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 47 yuan/ton [18][19]. - Fundamental Logic: It will fluctuate strongly in the short - term following the cost, but weak expectations limit the rebound height. Supply is sufficient, and there is pressure to reduce inventory in the future [20]. - Attention Range: L [6450 - 6600] [20] PP - Market Performance: The PP05 contract price decreased slightly. The PP05 basis was - 77 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 25 yuan/ton [22][23]. - Fundamental Logic: It will fluctuate strongly in the short - term following the oil price. The supply - demand relationship is weak, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices [24]. - Attention Range: PP [6300 - 6450] [24] PVC - Market Performance: The V05 contract price decreased slightly. The V05 basis was - 284 yuan/ton, the V59 spread was - 131 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 108477 [26][27]. - Fundamental Logic: Strong expectations dominate the short - term trend. The fundamental situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Cost support has strengthened, increasing the expectation of future device maintenance. Pay attention to inventory changes [28]. - Attention Range: V [4800 - 4950] [28] PTA - Market Performance: The TA05 contract price decreased. The TA05 basis was - 13 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 100 yuan/ton [29]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is not low, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively tight in the short - term. Some devices have been restored, but the overall maintenance intensity is high. Downstream demand is good but expected to weaken. Pay attention to the negative feedback from the demand side [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on the callback for the 05 contract. TA05 [5070 - 5150] [31] MEG - Market Performance: The EG05 contract price decreased. The EG05 basis was - 125 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 93 yuan/ton [32]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is low, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The domestic device load has increased, demand is expected to weaken, and port inventories are rising. It will fluctuate following the cost in the short - term [33]. - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on the rebound. EG05 [3720 - 3800] [34] Methanol - Market Performance: The main contract decreased in position and increased in price. The East China basis and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [37]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is not low. Supply pressure still exists, and demand has weakened slightly. The supply - demand relationship is slightly loose, but the downside space is limited [37]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on the callback for the methanol 05 contract. MA05 [2220 - 2280] [39] Urea - Market Performance: The urea main contract price was 1749 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis was - 39 yuan/ton [43]. - Fundamental Logic: The supply pressure is expected to increase in mid - January. Demand has weakened recently, and the social inventory is still at a relatively high level. However, there is an arbitrage window between domestic and foreign markets and the expectation of spring fertilizer use [42][43]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the callback for the 05 contract. UR05 [1730 - 1760] [44] Natural Gas - Market Performance: On January 5th, the NG main contract closed at $3.618/MMBtu, a decrease of 1.84% [46]. - Fundamental Logic: The demand side is in the consumption peak season, but the recent mild weather in the US has reduced the demand support for gas prices. The supply side is relatively abundant, and gas prices are under pressure [47]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of NG [3.250 - 3.680] [47] Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 31st, the BU main contract closed at 3022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed [50]. - Fundamental Logic: Geopolitical factors in South America have led to an expected shortage of raw materials. Supply has decreased in January 2026, and demand has increased slightly. Inventory has increased [51]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short positions should be cautious about risks. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3250] [52] Glass - Market Performance: The FG05 contract price decreased slightly. The FG05 basis was - 81 yuan/ton, the FG59 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 1676 [54][55]. - Fundamental Logic: Factory inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing. Short - term cold - repair expectations support the price, but long - term weak demand limits the rebound height [56]. - Attention Range: FG [1070 - 1120] [56] Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA05 contract price decreased. The SA05 basis was - 37 yuan/ton, the SA59 spread was - 72 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 4776 [58][59]. - Fundamental Logic: The continuous decline of float glass daily melting has led to insufficient demand support for heavy soda ash. Supply is expected to be loose in the long - term [60]. - Attention Range: SA [1150 - 1200] [60]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The A-share index has rebounded continuously, with significant inflows into broad-based ETFs recently. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. It is recommended to continue holding bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios on dips [3]. - The current ample liquidity supports the bond market, but supply concerns are constraining the performance of long-term bonds. It is expected that market consensus behavior may amplify volatility, and the stabilization or recovery of long-term bonds may not occur until the supply structure of government bonds becomes clearer. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and seeing, while cash-and-carry and curve strategies recommend focusing on positive spreads and steepening the yield curve, respectively [3]. - In January, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility due to uncertainties such as the impact of US economic data on Fed policy and geopolitical tensions in South America. It is recommended to pay attention to long volatility strategies [3]. Summary by Directory Financial Stock Index Futures - A-share index has rebounded continuously, with significant inflows into broad-based ETFs recently. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. It is recommended to continue holding bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios on dips [3]. Bond Futures - Supply concerns and the strengthening of equities are pressuring bond futures. It is expected that market consensus behavior may amplify volatility, and the stabilization or recovery of long-term bonds may not occur until the supply structure of government bonds becomes clearer. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and seeing, while cash-and-carry and curve strategies recommend focusing on positive spreads and steepening the yield curve, respectively [3]. Precious Metals - In January, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility due to uncertainties such as the impact of US economic data on Fed policy and geopolitical tensions in South America. It is recommended to pay attention to long volatility strategies [3]. Commodities Base Metals - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to wait for pullbacks to enter long positions. Copper prices have risen sharply, and it is recommended to hold long positions with caution. Zinc prices are rising, and it is recommended to hold long positions and continue holding cross-market arbitrage positions [3]. Ferrous Metals - Steel prices are expected to remain range-bound, with recommended trading ranges for rebar and hot-rolled coils. Iron ore prices are supported by steel mill restocking expectations, and short-term range trading is recommended. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to be weak, and short positions are recommended [3]. Energy and Chemicals - PX and PTA are expected to be weak in the short term and are recommended to be bought at low levels in the medium term. Short fiber is expected to follow raw material prices, and it is recommended to short the processing margin on rallies. Ethylene glycol is expected to be under pressure in January, and it is recommended to sell out-of-the-money call options and conduct reverse calendar spreads [3]. Agricultural Products - Sugar prices are expected to be weak on rebounds, and it is recommended to pay attention to resistance levels. Cotton prices are expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to pay attention to downstream restocking. Apple prices are expected to be strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions with put option protection [3].