Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 4.8% compared to Q2 2025, with retail sales growth slowing to 3% and fixed asset investment entering negative growth[3] - The real estate investment growth rate has hit a historical low, with only export growth remaining relatively stable on the demand side[3] Policy Response - Since September, counter-cyclical adjustment policies have been intensified, with the effectiveness of these policies observable through recent high-frequency data[3] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session report notably analyzed the current economic situation, indicating a high level of concern from decision-makers regarding short-term economic trends[3] Real Estate Market - Following the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities has returned to over 2 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to around -20%[3] - Sales improvements have been noted across first, second, and third-tier cities[3] Production and Supply - The overall supply-side situation improved in October, with indicators such as operating rates, capacity utilization, and production showing month-on-month improvements[3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown improvements both year-on-year and month-on-month, leading to a notable increase in corporate profit growth rates[3] Price Trends - Recent price trends indicate a weakening, particularly in pork prices, which may slow the recovery rate of nominal GDP growth[3] - The average price of cement in East China rose to 436 RMB/ton, while in Southwest China, it fell to 493 RMB/ton, reflecting regional price disparities[3] Risks - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and global recession impacts along with unexpected monetary policy shifts from major economies[3]

转自：新华财经 2025年10月份，国内猪肉进口冻品价格整体呈现缓跌的走势。据卓创资讯统计，截至2025年10月24日， 进口前肘成交均价在17416.67元／吨，较月初下降1.88%；进口颈骨成交均价在9500元／吨，较月初持 平；进口肋排成交均价在33287.18元／吨，较月初下降2.21%；进口猪头成交均价在10600元／吨，较月 初下降5.50%。 导致月内进口猪肉价格下跌的原因主要在于国产鲜品及冻品猪肉价格的持续下降。后期来看，国产猪肉 价格仍处于偏低水平，11-12月份进口猪肉价格难有好转。 后期来看，供应方面，四季度猪肉及猪副进口量有限，且当下港口库存量较小，进口商销售压力不大， 存一定挺价意向。需求方面，11-12月份为猪肉的消费旺季，国产猪肉价格有小幅反弹的可能，但幅度 有限，整体仍处于低位水平。这意味着进口产品价格优势较小，下游客户采购进口冻品的意向薄弱，进 口商销售压力较大，部分或存降价走量的意向。 综合供需来看，预计2025年11-12月份，进口猪肉仍或维持下降态势，但幅度有限，价格跌幅并不明 显。 （作者：马丽媛，卓创资讯分析师） 编辑：吴郑思 具体来看，10月份国产鲜品猪肉价格快速 ...

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 地缘与宏观利好释放，油价反弹。地缘方面，欧美新增对俄罗斯制裁，印 | | | | 度或减少进口俄罗斯原油，油价反弹；宏观方面，中美在马来西亚达成"非 | | 原油 | 谨慎看多 | 常实质性的框架协议"；供需方面，消费淡季开启，OPEC+仍在扩产周期， | | ★ | | 原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注原油边际产量 | | | | 变化。策略：空单持有，买入看涨期权控制风险，同时买入看跌期权。 | | | | 成本端提振，液化气反弹。成本端油价受地缘扰动反弹，成本端利好；供 | | LPG | | 需基本面改善，供给量小幅下降，下游化工开工率提高，需求端韧性较强。 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 库存端，港口库存下降。策略：地缘驱动价格反弹，买入看跌期权等待风 | | | | 险释放。 | | | | 现货跟涨，基差走强，跟随成本端弱势反弹。社会去化缓慢，10 月进口到 | | L | | 港较多，后市仍存增加预期；广西石化 70 万吨装置计划本月底投产叠加 | | ★ | 空头反弹 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with continued destocking trends and aluminum prices breaking through 21,000 RMB/ton [1][8] - The demand for aluminum is expected to remain stable, supported by ongoing economic growth and a favorable policy environment [13] - The aluminum industry is projected to maintain high prosperity due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [13] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of October 24, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was 2,856.5 USD/ton, up 315.0 RMB/ton week-on-week, a 1.5% increase [17] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closed at 21,225.0 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 315.0 RMB/ton [23] 2. Production - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.615 million tons, a decrease of 11.8 thousand tons month-on-month [55] - The alumina production for the same month was 7.604 million tons, down 13.5 thousand tons month-on-month [55] 3. Inventory - As of October 23, the national aluminum ingot inventory was recorded at 618,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 9,000 tons [9] - The domestic aluminum rod inventory increased to 145,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 3,000 tons [9] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.65 RMB for 2025 [7] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.00 RMB for 2025 [7] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.13 RMB for 2025 [7] 5. Supply and Demand - Domestic supply remains stable, while overseas supply disruptions have occurred, such as Century Aluminum's production halt in Iceland [9] - The demand side shows a mixed picture, with high aluminum prices suppressing downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Polyester Sector - In the short - term, although the cost center has shifted upwards, the supply - demand drivers are insufficient, and the polyester sector's enthusiasm to follow the rise in crude oil is limited. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situation changes. - In the medium - to - long - term, the expected increase in supply and the non - significant peak demand characteristics put pressure on the polyester sector as a whole [30][31] Methanol Sector - In the short - term, the supply side is slightly shrinking, the high - inventory problem at ports remains unsolved, and the upward space is limited. MTO is still the main demand force, but the recent losses have intensified, and the traditional downstream performs poorly. Methanol is mainly in a short - term range - bound oscillation due to coal cost support. - In the medium - to - long - term, the inflection point of port inventory is the core point of the market. Attention should be paid to the reduction in imports caused by the implementation of gas restrictions in Iran. If the medium - to - long - term signals are positive, methanol may rebound [49] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil News - The US plans to sanction two major Russian oil companies, and the EU has passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia. Russia believes these sanctions will not achieve the expected results. - US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased in the week ending October 17, indicating resilient energy demand. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for economic and trade consultations with the US from October 24 - 27 [5][6][7] Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of WTI crude, PX, TA, EG, PF, and PR all increased week - on - week, with WTI crude rising 7.65%. Spot prices of related products also generally increased. - PX, PTA, and other product bases showed different degrees of change, with PX base increasing by 192.58% [9] Supply - Side Situation - **PX**: Urumqi Petrochemical plans to restart on October 29, and Asian PX load has slightly declined. This week, domestic PX production decreased, and next week's supply is expected to increase slightly. - **PTA**: Hengli Petrochemical's 220 - million - ton No. 1 device restarted on October 24, and this week's domestic PTA production increased, with social inventory decreasing. - **Ethylene Glycol**: This week, domestic ethylene glycol production slightly increased, but the load decreased. Next week, due to device overhauls, supply will slightly decrease, and port inventory decreased this week [14][17][18] Demand - Side Situation - The average weekly polyester start - up rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points. Short - fiber inventory increased slightly, and long - fiber inventory decreased during the week. - As of October 24, the start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased, the number of orders from Chinese weaving sample enterprises increased, and the inventory days of grey cloth decreased [19][22][28] Methanol Sector Price Trends - The futures price of MA2601 decreased by 2.03%, and the base decreased by 45.45%. The spot price of methanol in Taicang increased by 2.99%, and the methanol CFR decreased by 1.04%. The prices of downstream products such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid generally decreased [33] Cost and Profit - This week, the profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production decreased, and natural - gas - based production continued to lose money. The overall demand - side profit of methanol declined significantly, and production enterprises suffered serious losses [39] Supply - Side Situation - As of October 23, the methanol start - up rate was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points, and the output was 194.35 million tons, a decrease of 2%. This week, the number of overhauled devices was greater than that of resumed devices. Next week, some devices plan to resume production, and there are no new overhaul plans [42][49] Demand - Side Situation - Affected by profit compression, the overall demand start - up load continued to weaken. MTO is still the main downstream demand force, with a load fluctuating around 91%. Traditional downstream industries performed poorly, and it is expected that MTO will continue to decline next week [45][49] Inventory Situation - As of October 22, port inventory was 151.22 million tons, an increase of 1.4%, and inland inventory was 36.04 million tons, an increase of 0.13%. Port inventory slightly increased, and inland inventory also increased slightly [48][49]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Copper Core View - Affected by the improved macro - atmosphere and strong medium - term fundamentals, copper prices are expected to continue rising next week [7]. Market Review - This week, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (84410, 87860), with total positions rising 7% to 584,000 lots. LME copper operated in the range of (10536.5, 10969). The net long position of funds decreased by about 3% to 57,476 lots, and the commercial net short position decreased by 7% to 73,093 lots [7]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. SMM seven - port copper concentrate inventory decreased. In September, the import of copper concentrates and their ores decreased month - on - month. Domestic cold - material processing fees fell again. In September, domestic electrolytic copper production decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [10][11][13]. Demand - The weekly operating rate of scrap copper rods increased slightly, while that of refined copper rods decreased. The operating rate of wire and cable and enameled wire increased slightly, but the overall consumption was lackluster [15][16]. Spot - Domestic copper stocks decreased by 0.08 to 274,000 tons, and bonded area stocks decreased by 0.49 to 92,800 tons. The LME + COMEX market increased stocks by 1,439 tons to 450,000 tons [17]. Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Due to short - term supply - demand boom, continuous inventory reduction, and unresolved supply - side disturbances, lithium carbonate futures are expected to move up [27]. Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures rose, with the main contract operating in the range of (75340, 80880), and total positions increasing by 7.5% to 812,000 lots. Spot prices also moved up, but the trading was dull [26]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Lithium ore prices moved up, and the losses of salt plants increased. The weekly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high, and the production costs of purchasing lithium spodumene and lepidolite increased [30][31]. Demand - The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, and battery cells all increased. The domestic power market is in the peak season, and the demand for materials is supported [32][33][34]. Spot - The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons [36][37]. Group 4: Aluminum Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, with a low - buying strategy recommended [46]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai aluminum rose unilaterally, hitting a new high for the year. The overseas market is worried about tariff risks. The demand side has gradually fulfilled its expectations in the peak season, but the downstream performance lacks highlights [42]. Fundamental Changes Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tight, and prices in some regions have risen slightly. Imported bauxite prices are weak [47][48]. Alumina - Alumina prices have initially stabilized, with the bottom slightly rising. The import window remains open [50][51]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The operating capacity remains unchanged. The export of aluminum profiles has slightly recovered, and the import window of aluminum ingots remains closed. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has declined slightly, and aluminum ingot stocks have decreased slightly [56][64][66]. Group 5: Nickel Core View - Nickel prices remain in a range - bound pattern, with support at the 120,000 level. Pay attention to overseas market changes and Indonesian policy risks [80]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai nickel was in a narrow - range shock in the first four days and rose on Friday, but it has not broken out of the range - bound pattern. The futures market maintains a contango structure, and the import window remains closed [75][80]. Fundamental Changes Nickel Ore - The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores remained stable this week. Some smelters have started procurement plans in advance [81]. Ferronickel - Ferronickel prices continued to fall this week, and it is expected that the downward trend will continue [80]. Electrolytic Nickel - The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing, but the output is difficult to increase significantly in the short term [92][93]. Nickel Sulfate - Nickel salt prices remained stable this week. It is expected that the supply of nickel sulfate will still increase slightly in October [96][98]. Stainless Steel - The inventory of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased slightly this week, but it is expected that the inventory will not decline significantly [103]. Group 6: Zinc Core View - Zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. The supply of zinc ingots has increased, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the implementation of export volume and gradually enter the market for reverse arbitrage [106]. Market Review - LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the risk of structural shortage has increased. Shanghai zinc rose oscillatingly. The import window has been deeply closed since July, and there is a small amount of exports [105]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Domestic zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. In October, the overall output of refined zinc increased month - on - month. The import window remains closed, and the export window is open [115][116]. Demand - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide all decreased slightly, and the overall demand has declined [117][118]. Spot - Domestic zinc stocks decreased to 162,100 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased to below 40,000 tons [119].

Core Viewpoint - Methanol prices have rebounded significantly this week, ending a previous downward trend, driven by rising crude oil prices and increased coal prices, despite a still loose supply situation [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic methanol production has seen a slight decrease in operating rates, with a current rate of 76.6%, down from a peak of 78% [2] - Seasonal maintenance of methanol production facilities is expected to reduce supply as winter approaches, with several plants scheduled for repairs [2] - High port inventories are suppressing prices in the East China market, while inland inventories remain at historically low levels [4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Recent price movements indicate a significant drop in methanol prices due to falling crude oil prices, but a rebound has occurred driven by rising crude and coal prices [5] - The methanol market is characterized by weak current realities but expectations for improvement, with limited downside potential for prices [5] Group 3: Demand Trends - Traditional demand has softened post-October, but overall demand levels remain relatively stable due to new downstream facilities coming online [3] - The operating rates for downstream products such as acetic acid and formaldehyde have decreased, contributing to the recent demand decline [3] Group 4: Inventory Levels - Port inventories have been accumulating but at a slowing rate, currently at 1.535 million tons, while inland inventories are at their lowest in recent years [4] - Downstream enterprises are experiencing a slight reduction in inventory levels, with expectations for replenishment in the coming weeks [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead Market**: The lead market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing. However, refinery operations are below expectations due to factors such as raw materials, leading to tight spot circulation and extremely low social inventories. The lead price has strongly rallied, breaking through the 17,300 yuan/ton resistance level. There is a need to be vigilant about the possibility of the lead price falling after a sharp rise [1]. - **Zinc Market**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply situation has tightened, making the domestic TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) more likely to fall than rise. The zinc price has received some support at the bottom and has rebounded in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to overseas structural risks as the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens with the continuous decline of LME zinc inventories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Indicators**: On October 24, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,615 yuan/ton, up 2.65%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 155.10% to 74,008 lots, while the open interest decreased by 12.28% to 23,288 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 239,750 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4.98% to 23,734 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, there is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has small fluctuations. For secondary lead, refineries that had previous maintenance have gradually resumed production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market has improved, and the operation of lead - acid battery enterprises is good, increasing demand [1]. - **Industry News**: According to the rules of the electric bicycle trade - in activity in Qingyuan City, Guangdong Province in 2025, individual consumers can get a one - time subsidy of 500 yuan when they trade in old electric bicycles (including batteries) for new ones priced at 1,500 yuan or more. Starting from October 29, 2025, subsidy qualification vouchers will be publicly distributed through the "Yuehuanxin" platform on the Cloud Flash Pay APP. On October 22, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 39.73 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 963 lots to 152,853 lots [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Indicators**: On October 24, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,030 yuan/ton, up 0.92%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,345 yuan/ton, up 1.57%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 60.71% to 164,360 lots, while the open interest decreased by 5.99% to 124,740 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 34,700 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.49% to 65,529 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores, and the domestic TC in October may still decline. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement, but with the continuous deterioration of the Shanghai - London ratio, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1]. - **Industry News**: On October 22, Boliden announced its Q3 2025 results. The overall output of its lead - zinc concentrate increased quarter - on - quarter. However, the output of the Tara mine climbed slower than expected due to seasonal factors, lower - than - expected mine development progress, and an unplanned power outage. Boliden reduced its annual planned grinding volume from 1.8 million tons to 1.6 million tons. SMM expects the annual zinc concentrate output to be reduced by about 0.5 - 10,000 metric tons and the lead concentrate output to be reduced by about 2,000 metric tons. In the smelting segment, the refined zinc output of the Odda smelter decreased quarter - on - quarter, and SMM expects its actual output in 2025 to be about 170,000 - 180,000 tons. On October 22, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 338.74 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2,424 lots to 221,589 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Lead**: Consider lightly shorting at high prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, against the backdrop of tight scrap and ore supplies, there is a high risk of contraction in the smelting sector, and the supply - demand balance of base metals is expected to tighten, which supports base metal prices. However, weak demand limits the upside potential of prices. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: After the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, copper prices are showing a strong trend. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment has warmed up with the release of the communiqué and the resumption of Sino - US trade negotiations. On the supply - demand side, copper ore supply disruptions are increasing, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have risen, leading to a decline in electrolytic copper production. Although the peak demand season has arrived, high prices have suppressed demand to some extent. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and considering the improved macro - sentiment, copper prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: As the operating capacity of smelters declines, alumina prices are oscillating. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has reduced output, but the reduction is insufficient, and China still maintains a strong inventory build - up trend. Ore prices have shown a slight decline, so there is still pressure on the upside of the disk price. - **Outlook**: Alumina is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading, and pay attention to the potential increase in volatility [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The risk of Mozal's shutdown has intensified, and aluminum prices have slightly rebounded. - **Logic**: The macro - tone at home and abroad is positive. On the supply side, some replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity and utilization rate are at a high level. On the demand side, orders in the peak season have improved marginally, and social inventories have started to decline. The current copper - aluminum price ratio is above 4.0, and the valuation of aluminum is relatively low. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias. In the medium term, the supply increase is limited, and demand remains resilient, so the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise [11]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: With strong cost support, the disk is oscillating upward. - **Logic**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum is difficult to change in the short term, providing strong cost support. Although some enterprises have slightly reduced production due to unclear policies and weak demand, the overall reduction is not large. Demand has improved marginally, and social inventories and warehouse receipts have continued to rise. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, due to unclear policy implementation and potential raw material disruptions, prices are expected to continue to oscillate [12]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: With optimistic macro - expectations and an open export window, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment is optimistic. In the short term, zinc ore supply has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, so their production willingness is strong. Domestic consumption is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand expectations are average. The overall fundamentals are in surplus, but the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc has not ended. - **Outlook**: In October, zinc ingot production will remain high, and demand recovery is limited, so inventories may continue to accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate [14]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Due to supply disruptions in recycled lead and low social inventories, lead prices have risen significantly. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount has narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead has increased. On the supply side, the profitability of recycled lead smelters has improved, and production has increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories has recovered, and demand remains high. - **Outlook**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar may still decline. After the holidays, lead supply growth has been slightly lower than expected, and demand is in the peak season. Lead prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: With LME nickel inventories exceeding 250,000 tons, nickel prices are oscillating widely. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the disk. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Ore supply is relatively loose, and the reality of excess electrolytic nickel is serious, with significant inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely [18]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: With low warehouse receipts, the stainless - steel disk is rising. - **Logic**: Nickel - iron prices have weakened, and chromium prices are relatively stable. Stainless - steel production has increased in September, but the sustainability of demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season needs to be monitored. Social inventories have decreased slightly, and warehouse receipts have continued to decline. - **Outlook**: Downstream demand is slightly lower than expected, and cost support has a certain boosting effect on steel prices. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: With supply constraints remaining, tin prices are oscillating. - **Logic**: There have been continuous supply disruptions in tin. Indonesia has taken measures to restrict supply, and the resumption of production in the Wa State's Manxiang mining area is slow. The domestic tin ore supply is tight, and the processing fee for tin concentrate remains low. - **Outlook**: With tight supply at the mine end, tin prices are expected to oscillate [23]. 3.2行情监测 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index increased by 0.70% to 2250.50, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.58% to 2546.54, the industrial products index increased by 1.12% to 2229.03, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.86% to 1342.15 [148]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 23, 2025, increased by 0.70% on the day, 1.60% in the past 5 days, 3.15% in the past month, and 7.08% since the beginning of the year [149].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of the gradually loosening macro - environment, the logic of steel price trends remains unchanged; in the short - term, the weak real demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly [3] - For iron ore, the demand weakens after the decline of hot metal production, and the continuous accumulation of port inventory puts pressure on prices. The market is in a state of weak reality and macro - expectation tug - of - war, with prices oscillating [6] - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic about the future. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do rebounds may be higher than short - selling [11] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, following the commodity environment, and the trend of coking coal futures has a certain driving effect on its price [14] - For polysilicon, the current price fluctuation is regarded as a phased correction within the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [16] - For glass, in the short - term, without external factors, the market is expected to remain weak [19] - For soda ash, the market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3047 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 129,796 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.995833 million lots, down 10,093 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3110 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, both with no change [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3219 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.124%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,657 tons, down 2375 tons. The main contract position was 1.509998 million lots, up 6767 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, with no change [2] Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased, showing a neutral performance; hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly, demand rebounded, inventory decreased marginally but remained at a relatively high level, and the inventory contradiction was slightly relieved. The steel mill profitability rate declined significantly recently, and the hot metal production decreased significantly, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally [3] Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 777.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.39% (+3.00), and the position changed by +2978 lots to 561,100 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 941,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 783 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.33 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.65% [5] Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume rebounded in the latest period and was at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both increased, the shipment of FMG was strong, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries rebounded slightly. The near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month [6] - Demand: The average daily hot metal production in the latest period was 239.9 tons, falling below 240 tons, mainly affected by the weak steel price, the decline of steel mill profitability to the lowest level of the year, and the environmental protection issues in Hebei affecting blast furnace production [6] - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory increased slightly [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On October 23, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.14% at 5818 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5910 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the premium to the futures price was 92 yuan/ton [9] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed up 0.65% at 5574 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the premium to the futures price was 76 yuan/ton [9] Strategy Views - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade friction has put pressure on commodities. Most of the current situation has been priced in, and subsequent macro - level factors may be more important [10] - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do rebounds may be higher. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon futures (SI2511) closed at 8705 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.59% (+220). The weighted contract position changed by +103 lots to 438,582 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis of the main contract was 595 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis of the main contract was 145 yuan/ton [13] - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon futures (PS2511) closed at 50760 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.89% (+450). The weighted contract position changed by - 3824 lots to 243,675 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.98 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg, and the basis of the main contract was 2220 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply shows a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south", and the supply pressure still exists. The demand is mainly restricted by supply. The cost provides support for the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [14] - Polysilicon: The over - expected increase in silicon material production in October and the decrease in downstream silicon wafer production lead to continuous inventory accumulation pressure. The supply pressure will be relieved if the leading enterprises start maintenance at the end of the month. The current price fluctuation is a phased correction [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1108 yuan/ton, up 1.28% (+14). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1140 yuan, with no change; the price in Central China was 1150 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million boxes, up 2.3374 million boxes (+3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12,367 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their positions by 6711 lots [18] - Soda ash: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1235 yuan/ton, up 0.98% (+12). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1185 yuan, up 12 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7021 million tons, up 0.16 million tons (+3.64%), among which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 934,500 tons, down 62,000 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 767,600 tons, up 78,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 3131 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 4848 lots [20] Strategy Views - Glass: Entering the end of the traditional peak season, the downstream procurement rhythm slows down further, and the supply rebounds. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short - term, and the market is expected to remain weak [19] - Soda ash: The industry shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [21]