Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is in a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations. Short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production. If inventory accumulation exceeds expectations in August - September or purchases from China and India remain poor, it may be seasonally short - allocated. Strategies like expanding the rapeseed - palm oil spread and reverse - arbitrage between September and January contracts are recommended. However, there are potential bullish factors in the second half of the year, and it's advisable to go long at low levels before the fourth quarter [2][5]. - Soybean oil also has a pattern of weak current situation and strong future prospects. The domestic soybean oil inventory may peak in July. After the third quarter, soybean oil may benefit from potential increases in crushing margins and Brazilian basis. There are opportunities to go long on soybean oil in the fourth quarter, while observing changes in palm oil inventory inflection points and US soybean oil biodiesel policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: Positive news about US biodiesel obligations and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up international oil prices, leading to a 4.86% weekly increase in the palm oil 09 contract [1]. - Soybean oil: The same positive factors in the US biodiesel policy and Middle East situation affected US soybeans and US soybean oil directly, resulting in a 4.75% weekly rise in the soybean oil 09 contract [1]. 3.2 This Week's Views and Logic Palm oil - Production: June rainfall forecasts indicate continued dryness in Malaysia. Conservatively estimated, production may remain flat or slightly decrease to 1.7 - 1.75 million tons. The annual production in Malaysia in 2025 is estimated to be around 19.2 million tons, with a risk of lower production than last year from July - August [2]. - Export and inventory: Export from the producing areas remains strong, with ITS reporting a 14.31% increase in exports in the first 20 days of June. India's palm oil imports in June may exceed 900,000 tons, leading to a strong expectation of inventory reduction in Malaysia in June [2]. - Market impact: The US biodiesel policy is positive. In the 2025/2026 season, about 1.4 million tons of US soybean oil supply will be withdrawn from the international market, causing a potential upward trend in the international oil market. There are differences in market expectations for palm oil production this year. If good yields are maintained from July - August, there may be significant inventory accumulation pressure from August - September [2]. Soybean oil - International market: The EPA significantly increased the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for biomass diesel in 2026, reversing market expectations. The price of US soybean oil has room to rise further. In the 2025/2026 season, the industrial demand for US soybean oil will increase by at least 1.5 million tons to 6.93 million tons, and the expected consumption in 2026 is over 10 million tons [3][4]. - Domestic market: Currently, domestic soybean oil inventory is accumulating rapidly due to high crushing rates, but it may peak in July. After the third quarter, soybean oil may benefit from potential increases in crushing margins and Brazilian basis [4]. 3.3盘面基本行情数据 - Palm oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 8,170 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,600 yuan/ton, a low of 8,140 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,536 yuan/ton, with a 4.86% increase [7]. - Soybean oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 7,788 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,198 yuan/ton, a low of 7,780 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,156 yuan/ton, with a 4.75% increase [7]. - Rapeseed oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 9,324 yuan/ton, reached a high of 9,750 yuan/ton, a low of 9,295 yuan/ton, and closed at 9,726 yuan/ton, with a 4.47% increase [7]. - Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 4,035 ringgit/ton, reached a high of 4,144 ringgit/ton, a low of 4,034 ringgit/ton, and closed at 4,115 ringgit/ton, with a 4.79% increase [7]. - CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 52.55 cents/pound, reached a high of 56.47 cents/pound, a low of 52.55 cents/pound, and closed at 55.04 cents/pound, with a 7.52% increase [7]. 3.4油脂基本面核心数据 - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production in June may decline month - on - month, and inventory may decrease. Indonesia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise rapidly in the second quarter [9][11]. - Export: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 were 847,695 tons, a 14.31% increase compared to the same period last month [11]. - Price spread: The POGO spread is declining, indicating pressure on palm oil fundamentals. The Indian soybean - palm oil CNF spread is rising [11][12]. - Import: The EU's cumulative palm oil imports in 2025 have decreased by 270,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils have decreased by 540,000 tons [12].

农产品周报 | 2025-06-22 内外糖价止跌企稳，郑棉期价延续震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，截止周五收盘，棉花2509合约13495元/吨，环比上周持平。现货方面，新疆地区棉花现货价格14764 元/吨，环比下跌21元/吨。现货基差CF09+1269，环比下跌21。全国棉花现货加权均价14879元/吨，环比上涨 37元/吨，现货基差CF09+1384，环比上涨37。 国际方面，据USDA，截止6月12日当周，2024/25美陆地棉周度签约1.89万吨，周增38%，较四周平均水平降23%， 同比降56%；其中越南签约1.12万吨，土耳其签约0.36万吨，中国取消0.13万吨；2025/26年度美陆地棉周度签 约6.23万吨，同比增长146%，其中越南1.79万吨、萨尔瓦多1.64万吨、洪都拉斯1.04万吨；2024/25美陆地棉周 度装运4.64万吨，环比减13%，较四周平均水平降24%，同比增3%，其中越南装运1.12万吨，土耳其装运0.95万 吨。 国内方面，据海关统计数据，2025年5月我国棉花进口量4万吨，环比（6万吨）减少2万吨，减幅33.9%；同比（26 万吨）减少22万吨，减 ...

2025年06月20日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观深度 金融市场分析周报 (2025.06.09-2025.06.13) 报告摘要 | 主要数据 | | | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3362.1082 | | 沪深 300 | 3843.0912 | | 深证成指 | 10051.9655 | 主要指数走势图 作者 刘庆东 分析师 SAC 执业证书: S0640520030001 联系电话:010-59219572 邮箱：liuqd@avicsec.com 相关研究报告 | 金融市场分析周报 (2025.06.03-2025.06.06) | | --- | | -2025-06-13 | | 金融市场分析周报 —2025-06-06 | | 金融市场分析周报 —2025-05-30 | 入市需谨慎 股市有风险 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 联系地址:北京市朝阳区望京街道望京东园四区2号楼中航产融大 厦中航证券有限公司 公司网址：www.avicsec.com 联系电话：010-59219558 传真:010-59562637 证券研究报告 中航证券研究所发布 1 ● CPI/PPI： ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is being characterized as a "perpetual entity," suggesting that its debt does not need to be repaid, which is a controversial viewpoint [3][5] - This perspective aims to divert attention from the significant U.S. debt issue and may be a precursor to potential "default" behavior by the U.S. [5][10] - The U.S. has seen a reduction in its debt obligations, with China selling off $8.2 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, bringing its holdings to a new low of $757.2 billion [12][15] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, while signaling potential rate cuts later in the year [19][20] - Economic indicators show a concerning trend, with core PCE inflation stuck at 3.1% and GDP growth expectations lowered to 1.4%, raising fears of "stagflation" [22][30] - The U.S. faces challenges from external factors, such as rising energy prices due to geopolitical tensions, complicating monetary policy decisions [27][30] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated potential high-level talks with China to promote market openness, reflecting a complex balance of cooperation and competition [32][39] - China is strategically reducing exports of critical metals, which may pressure U.S. companies to develop domestic supply chains [34] - The U.S. has shown some flexibility by agreeing to ease restrictions on semiconductor equipment exports in exchange for collaboration opportunities [35][37]

[Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 6 月 20 日 5 月交易盘止盈情绪升温 银行大量承接供给带来负债压力 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 —— 2025 年 5 月债券托管数据点评 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summary] 摘要：5 月债券总托管规模环比上升 21633 亿元，较 4 月多增 5557 亿 元，主要是受到国债和政金债净融资规模大幅上升的影响，而地方债、 同业存单和信用债的托管增量环比均小幅下降。 ➢ 5 月降准降息后的止盈情绪以及政府债供给压力的抬升是影响机构行为 的重要因素。5 月上旬央行降准降息落地，尽管资金利率中枢也跟随政 策利率回落，但仍然存在一定的波动，而在长短端利差大幅压缩后，非 银机构的止盈情绪升温，叠加中旬中美贸易谈判取得积极进展，使得广 义基金与券商均大幅减持利率债，保险公司也转为减 ...

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月20日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 王凌辉 Z0019938 | | | | | | | 员知 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月19日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月18日 张跃 张跌幅 | | | | | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | | 8400 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8350 50 0.60% | | ...

Group 1 - Rare earth elements are crucial for various industries, including defense, aerospace, energy, electronics, and transportation, with applications in modern weapon systems and electric vehicles [1][4][6] - China dominates the rare earth industry, controlling nearly 90% of the refining of magnetic rare earths and holding the largest reserves and production capacity globally [2][23][24] - The global rare earth market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with China producing approximately 70% of the world's rare earths [21][23] Group 2 - China's rare earth management system has evolved, with recent implementations of export licensing to protect national interests and respond to international pressures [3][39][41] - The U.S. heavily relies on China for rare earth products, with nearly 60% of its imports coming from China, particularly in the context of military and high-tech applications [30][31] - Historical instances of China's export controls, such as during the Diaoyu Islands dispute, resulted in significant price increases and highlighted the potential impact of current export restrictions on the U.S. military-industrial complex [32][35] Group 3 - The recent export controls on rare earths are seen as a strategic response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, with potential for reciprocal easing if the U.S. adjusts its trade policies [3][42] - The automotive industry in the U.S. and Europe has already faced production halts due to rare earth shortages, emphasizing the critical nature of these materials in electric vehicle manufacturing [10][11] - Other sectors, such as wind energy and robotics, also show a high dependency on rare earths, with projections indicating a tripling of demand for wind energy by 2030 [13][11]

Core Viewpoint - Huikang Technology is aiming to become the "first ice machine stock" in China, with significant revenue from its ice machine and home appliance business, but faces risks due to its heavy reliance on the U.S. market and family control issues [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported annual revenues of 3 billion yuan, with projected net profit of 450 million yuan for 2024, marking it as a "single champion" in the ice machine sector [3]. - Revenue from 2022 to 2024 is expected to grow from 1.93 billion yuan to 3.20 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.49% in 2024 [5]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 197 million yuan in 2022 to 451 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 33.61% [5]. Product Segmentation - Ice machines are the main revenue driver, with sales expected to rise from 1.36 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.58 billion yuan in 2024, increasing its revenue share from 70.83% to 81% [6]. - The average selling price of ice machines is declining, from 435.22 yuan in 2022 to 385.9 yuan in 2024, due to market demand for smaller products and competitive pricing strategies [7]. Debt and Liabilities - The company's liabilities are projected to reach 1.82 billion yuan in 2024, a 15.96% increase from the previous period, with accounts payable being a significant contributor [8][9]. Market Exposure and Risks - The U.S. market accounts for 60% of the company's revenue, raising concerns about potential risks from U.S.-China trade tensions [9][11]. - The company plans to establish a factory in Thailand to mitigate risks associated with trade disputes and to create a dual supply chain system [14][15]. Ownership and Governance - The company is controlled by the Chen family, with significant family involvement in management and board positions, raising concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest [16][19]. - Prior to the IPO, the company distributed 209 million yuan in dividends over two years, impacting its cash flow [22][23].

Economic Outlook - Daxin Financial forecasts Hong Kong's economy to grow by 2.4% this year, despite ongoing uncertainties from the US-China trade war [1] - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to challenge the 25,000-point mark in the second half of the year, with a support level around 20,800 points [1] Market Conditions - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks has returned to a more reasonable level, but volatility is anticipated due to unclear US-China trade prospects and the effectiveness of mainland economic stimulus measures [1] - High dividend yields, domestic consumption, and innovation and technology sectors are expected to have a positive outlook [1] Mainland China Economic Impact - Short-term growth in mainland China's exports is anticipated, as some companies shift exports to ASEAN and other regions, offsetting declines in exports to the US [1] - Mainland China's economy is projected to grow by 4.4% this year, supported by relaxed monetary policy and a commitment to more proactive fiscal policies [1] Real Estate Market - The significant drop in mortgage rates and gradual recovery in rental yields are expected to alleviate downward pressure on Hong Kong property prices [2] - However, potential oversupply in new residential properties and uncertainties from the trade war may lead to an estimated 5% decline in property prices for the entire year of 2025 [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the A-share market in the context of a weakening US dollar cycle and its implications for various sectors and policies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Weak Dollar Cycle**: The weakening of the US dollar is becoming evident, influenced by multiple factors including the expanding US fiscal deficit, which is projected to worsen to 7% by 2026. This trend is expected to positively impact the A-share market [1][2]. 2. **A-share Market Performance**: Historically, during weak dollar periods, the A-share market has shown strong performance, particularly in consumer sectors, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and finance [1][4]. 3. **New Policy Cycle**: Since September 2024, several favorable policies have been introduced, including guidelines for medium- and long-term funding and new regulations for mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to support financial asset prices [1][5]. 4. **Global Liquidity Impact**: The global liquidity easing cycle has a significant effect on the A-share market. The period from 2019 to 2021 saw a bull market driven by global liquidity, while a shift to negative liquidity in 2022 led to a bear market [1][6]. 5. **Current Monetary Policy Trends**: The global monetary policy remains accommodative, with expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The European Central Bank has also been aggressive in its rate cuts, while the People's Bank of China is expected to follow suit [1][7]. 6. **Foreign Investment Sentiment**: There has been a notable shift in foreign investment sentiment from bearish to bullish regarding Chinese assets, driven by confidence in China's fiscal and monetary policies and the rise of Chinese technological hard assets [1][3][8][9]. 7. **Market Expectations and Catalysts**: The market is currently facing pessimistic expectations regarding export demand and economic deflation. However, potential positive influences include structural fiscal policies and a possible resolution of the US-China trade conflict [1][10][11]. 8. **Market Trends and Performance**: The A-share market is expected to experience a period of volatility followed by upward movement, supported by the weak dollar trend, policy support, and overall liquidity improvement [1][12]. 9. **Key Catalysts for Market Breakthrough**: For the market to break through current resistance levels, key catalysts such as unexpected improvements in global fundamentals, domestic policy implementation, and breakthroughs in emerging industries are necessary [1][13]. 10. **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, with a projected annualized return of 8.64% over the next three years. A strategic allocation of 60% in equity assets is recommended [1][14][15]. 11. **Investment Focus Areas**: Key investment areas for the second half of the year include artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and the rise of new consumer trends [1][16]. Additional Important Content - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China trade relations, as it could significantly impact market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][3][11].