Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the current market, advising waiting and seeing [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the current market, recommending waiting and seeing [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The futures prices of various soft commodities show different trends. The prices of cotton, sugar, apple, and timber are in a state of shock or correction, while pulp is rising, and 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber are falling. The market sentiment and fundamentals of each commodity vary, and the operation suggestions are mainly waiting and seeing, with some commodities having the option of intraday operation or buying at low prices [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today with sharp fluctuations. The 9 - 1 spread also decreased. The inventory depletion rate slowed down in the first half of July. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons compared to June. In June 2025, the cotton import was 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. Downstream cotton procurement remains cautious, and there is a strong expectation of increased production in the new year. The cotton yarn market has average trading and strong prices. Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the details of Sino - US trade. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the estimated sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region in the 25/26 season is 72 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. However, most international consulting companies believe that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil will remain above 40 million tons. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, the sugar import was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons; the import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Although there is an increase in production in Guangxi this year, due to the fast sales rhythm, the inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. However, the US sugar trend is still downward, and the upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is relatively limited. It is expected that the sugar price will remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. New - season early - maturing apples began to be supplied to the market. The price of 65 apples in Yuncheng area increased by 0.2 - 0.3 yuan per catty year - on - year, and traders are bullish. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 90,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.8%. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. The western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period this year, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. The flower quantity in the producing areas is sufficient this year, but there are still differences in the yield estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all declined in a fluctuating manner. The sentiment in the futures market was divided. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, and the synthetic rubber spot price continued to rise. The Asian price of the external butadiene port increased while the European price was stable. The supply of global natural rubber is gradually entering the high - yield period, and there are strong winds and rains in the Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded. The demand side shows that the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires continued to rise slightly, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to rise significantly. The inventory of tire finished products increased. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 634,600 tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 12,600 tons. The strategy is to rebound [6] Pulp - Today, pulp continued to rise. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,950 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of Russian needles in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,480 yuan per ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,150 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.181 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. In June, the pulp import was still high year - on - year. The pulp supply is relatively loose, the demand is still weak, and downstream buyers tend to bargain. The pulp valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [7] Timber - The futures price corrected. The mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 62,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 cubic meters, an increase of 6.12%. As of July 18, the total national port log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 cubic meters. The total national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Due to poor profits, the log shipment volume from New Zealand will remain low, and there is certain positive news on the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the price lacks the driving force to continue to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant narrowing of the trade deficit between China and the U.S. following the Geneva high-level economic talks, with a notable increase in export growth rates and a slight uptick in import growth due to base effects [1][2][3]. Export Analysis - In June 2025, China's total exports reached $325.18 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, which is a 1.0 percentage point rise from the previous month [1][3]. - The decline in exports to the U.S. has significantly reduced, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.13%, an improvement of 18.39 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. - Exports to ASEAN countries continued to grow rapidly, while traditional export categories saw declines, with integrated circuits and automobiles showing strong growth [5][6]. Import Analysis - China's total imports in June 2025 amounted to $210.41 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, reversing from negative growth due to base effects [2][6]. - Imports from the U.S. decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, but this decline was 2.6 percentage points less than the previous month [2][6]. - The import growth rates from Japan and ASEAN were positive, while imports from traditional bulk commodities continued to face challenges [7]. Future Outlook - The external environment for trade is expected to remain complex and volatile, with potential risks and opportunities for export growth in 2025 [8]. - Domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy are anticipated to support a gradual recovery in import growth, although challenges from the real estate market and global trade barriers may persist [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **One Star (Bullish with Limited Operability)**: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Live Hogs [1] - **Two Stars (Clear Bullish/Bearish Trend and Market Fermentation)**: None - **Three Stars (Clearer Bullish/Bearish Trend and Investment Opportunities)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Eggs [1] - **White Star (Balanced Trend and Poor Operability, Observe)**: None Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, policy, trade relations, and supply - demand. In the face of uncertainties in tariff and weather issues, the market trends of different agricultural products vary, and continuous attention to relevant factors is required [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans show a volatile and slightly strong rebound. Spot prices are relatively stable, and today's tender procurement had zero transactions. In the next week, there will be more showers in Northeast China and northern North China, which is beneficial for soil moisture but may cause short - term waterlogging. For imported soybeans, in the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas, higher - than - normal temperature and precipitation can ease the high - temperature risk. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of the week ending July 20, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the expected 71%. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly lower than normal, and there will be high - temperature days in the central and southeastern regions. The suspension of Sino - US tariffs is about to end, and China's soybean procurement decision is a market focus. Domestically, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the soybean meal inventory is increasing. Before the tariff and weather issues are clear, the soybean meal market will be volatile [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contracts of domestic palm oil and soybean oil show position reduction and price adjustment. Currently, major domestic industrial products are rising strongly, but palm oil does not follow. The palm oil futures main contract price is near the previous high, with position reduction. In the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas, high temperature and precipitation can ease the high - temperature risk. Short - term data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased and exports decreased in July 1 - 20. Due to the long - term development of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the palm oil's fourth - quarter production reduction cycle, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Today, rapeseed meal is strong and rapeseed oil is weak. The stagnant rise and decline of overseas oilseeds and oils are mainly reflected in the oil market. The peak season of aquatic feed demand is coming, and the consumption of East China granular meal has improved. Coastal oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory is low, supporting the short - term rapeseed meal price. The uncertainty of rapeseed imports remains, and there are variables in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The short - term strategy for rapeseed products is to observe, focusing on weather and trade negotiations [6] Corn - Today, Sinograin held an imported corn sales auction with 198,558 tons, and the transaction rate was 27%. As of the week ending July 20, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 74%, in line with expectations. The US corn is growing well. Currently, the domestic corn market has few contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures market continues the upward trend of the January contract leading the rise. The far - month contracts are stronger than the near - month ones. The rise is driven by policy expectations. The spot market is weak. The long - term supply indicators show sufficient potential supply. Attention should be paid to policy guidance [8] Eggs - Egg futures increased positions and slightly declined today. Spot prices are stable in some areas and rising in others. The spot price is in the seasonal rebound stage, but attention should be paid to the pressure of cold - storage egg release. The off - season contracts are affected by insufficient old - hen culling and high production capacity. In the long - term, the egg price cycle has not bottomed out [9]

近期，据证券时报消息，美国在国际舞台上动作频频，为了达成自身目的使出不少手段。可从当前局势 来看，这些招数效果不佳。美国对中国的关税施压已经持续了一段时间。据海关总署副署长王令浚通 报，受美国所谓"对等关税"影响，中美贸易第二季度同比下降20.8%，上半年我国对美国进出口总值 2.08万亿元，同比下降9.3%，出口和进口也分别有不同程度下降。 不过6月份中美贸易有所回升，进出口值从5月份不到3000亿元回升到超过3500亿元，同比降幅明显收 窄。这说明中美经贸合作的韧性还在，互利共赢的本质没有变。可美国似乎没意识到这一点，还在继续 搞关税这套。特朗普给不少国家送上"关税函"，对欧盟、墨西哥追加30%关税，对加拿大扬言加征至 35%，这种做法不仅没给美国带来好处，反而让美国的市场和信任受损。《华盛顿邮报》就刊文称，贸 易壁垒这条路会导致美国真正衰落。 特朗普（资料图） 在挑拨中国与其他国家关系上，美国也没闲着。美国国务院官员米尼翁接受日本媒体采访时，提醒东盟 国家不要依赖中国，还称美国最终会跟各国保持公平的贸易。可实际情况是，特朗普对东盟下了重手， 泰国、柬埔寨被征36%的关税，缅甸高达40%，菲律宾也被征20 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Macro Economy and Real Estate Market - **Company**: Goldman Sachs (GS) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Mixed Economic Data for May**: - Fixed asset investment growth was only 3.7%, below the expected 4.0% - Industrial value-added growth was 5.8%, slightly below the expected 6.0% - Retail sales of consumer goods grew strongly by 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9% [2][3] 2. **Decline in Urban Housing Demand**: - GS revised the forecast for urban housing demand, estimating it will remain below 5 million units annually, a 75% decrease from the peak of 20 million units in 2017 - Current housing prices are still declining, indicating the real estate market has not yet bottomed out [3][4] 3. **Limited Impact of Export Front-Loading**: - Anticipated "reciprocal" tariffs led to front-loading of exports, with an estimated 5% increase in overall exports in March - The impact on exports for the second half of the year is expected to be limited to 1 percentage point, suggesting that trade surpluses will remain strong [5][4] 4. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth**: - May saw a slowdown in fiscal operations, with budgetary income growth at only 0.1%, significantly lower than April's 1.9% - Fiscal expenditure growth decreased from 5.8% in April to 2.6%, indicating that fiscal stimulus has not significantly strengthened [11][12] 5. **Real Estate Revenue Weakness**: - Land transfer revenue fell by 14.2% year-on-year, a stark contrast to April's growth of 3.9% - Budgetary real estate-related tax revenue decreased by 8.6%, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate market [11][12] 6. **Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Prices**: - Brent crude oil prices rose to nearly $80 per barrel due to escalating tensions in Iran, with a geopolitical risk premium of about $12 - Two scenarios for oil price increases were outlined, with potential peaks of $90 and $110 per barrel under different supply disruption scenarios [26][28] 7. **Copper Demand Driven by AI**: - AI-driven data center expansion is expected to become a new growth driver for copper demand, particularly in power distribution and cooling systems - Strong capital expenditure expectations for AI-related investments are anticipated to sustain demand for copper-intensive components [32][34] 8. **Modern Dairy Industry Forecast**: - Modern Dairy, a joint venture of Mengniu, expects a net loss of RMB 800-1,000 million in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than last year's loss of RMB 207 million - The core operations remain resilient, with EBITDA expected to remain stable due to lower raw milk sales costs [38][39] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Fiscal Space for Expansion**: Despite current economic growth exceeding expectations, GS anticipates further fiscal expansion in the second half of the year to counter deflationary pressures and boost confidence [16][18] - **Market Sentiment and Currency Dynamics**: The report highlights a divergence in safe-haven currencies, with the dollar and Swiss franc performing strongly while Asian low-yield currencies face pressure [16][18] - **Potential for Future Trade Weakness**: High-frequency transport data indicates a potential weakening of Chinese exports to the U.S., particularly in container traffic, which may reflect the impact of new tariffs [35][37]

| | | | Million > 国收期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月18日 | | 棉花, | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 天然橡胶 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨,盘中涨幅较大,国产棉现货销售基差坚挺;棉花产业链呈现原料更强,纯棉纱价格上涨,下游还步跟进。 由于下游纺企对于棉花原料后点价行为，市场认为上涨存在较逼仓的可能。下游内地纺企开机继续下行，成品库存继续累积， 不过新疆纺企开机仍高。截至6月底，棉花商业库存为282.98万吨，较5月底减少62.89万吨 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the internal divisions within the U.S. government, particularly focusing on Trump's fluctuating stance towards Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the implications for the economy [1][9][10] - Trump's initial intention to remove Powell led to negative market reactions, including declines in major stock indices and a rise in bond yields, indicating potential economic instability [9][12][20] - The article highlights Trump's contradictory statements regarding his approach to China, showcasing a significant shift from aggressive rhetoric to a more conciliatory tone, suggesting a desire for negotiation [41][46][58] Group 2 - The article notes the chaos within the U.S. State Department, exacerbated by recent layoffs, which have led to operational disruptions and protests from former employees [66][68] - It emphasizes the political pressure Trump faces from both allies and opponents regarding the Epstein case, which is being used to undermine his authority and support [24][39][70] - The article concludes that Trump's changing strategies, particularly towards China, are driven by a need to stabilize both domestic and international relations amid growing internal dissent and external pressures [60][63][66]

Economic Growth Predictions - Multiple foreign institutions have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025, with Morgan Stanley increasing its prediction from 4.5% to 4.8%, Goldman Sachs from 4.6% to 4.7%, and UBS from 4% to 4.7% [1][4] - At least nine U.S. and international banks have adjusted their forecasts for China's economic growth, with Barclays and Morgan Stanley predicting nearly 5% growth for this year [2] Economic Indicators - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with industrial output increasing by 6.4%, and high-tech manufacturing growing by 8.7% [3] - Retail sales increased by 5.0% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point acceleration from the first quarter [3] Chip Export Developments - AMD plans to resume exports of its MI308 chip to China following U.S. government approval, marking a significant shift in U.S. policy regarding AI chip exports to China [7] - The approval of H20 chip exports to China is expected to enhance Nvidia's profitability and indicates progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations [8] Market Sentiment - Optimism regarding China's economic growth is improving investment expectations in the Chinese stock market, with Citigroup upgrading its rating on the consumer sector from "neutral" to "overweight" [5] - Bridgewater's onshore China fund achieved a 14% return in the first half of the year, reflecting a positive outlook on Chinese equities due to policy support and relatively low valuations [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports from China, particularly in the electric tools, hand tools, and lawnmower sectors, as well as the broader implications for supply chains and market dynamics [1][2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Tariff Increases**: In the first half of 2025, the average tariff on Chinese imports reached 54%, with electric tools facing a 35.8% tariff and lawnmowers experiencing a significant increase [1][4]. - **Decline in Market Share**: Since the trade war began in 2018, China's share of electric tool exports to the U.S. has dropped from 40%-45% to around 20%, indicating a trend of supply chain relocation [1][5]. - **Impact on Import Volumes**: The correlation between freight costs and import values suggests that while both increased in 2024, a sharp decline is expected post-March 2025 due to tariff impacts [1][6][7]. - **Hand Tools Performance**: Hand tools showed stable growth in early 2025, but a significant drop to -7% in May indicates the growing impact of tariffs on actual import volumes [1][8]. - **Lawnmower Market Share**: The market share of Chinese lawnmowers plummeted from 40%-45% at the end of 2023 to 13% by May 2025, highlighting the direct impact of high tariffs [1][10]. - **Overall Import Trends**: The overall import value has been suppressed by high tariffs, with monthly amounts decreasing by 10%-20%, yet consumer demand remains positive, suggesting potential for inventory replenishment if tariffs stabilize [3][13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Data Importance**: U.S. customs data is crucial for understanding actual market demand and supply, especially in the context of changing tariffs and supply chain dynamics [2][17]. - **Future Opportunities**: The current export chain opportunities are linked to stable tariff expectations and low inventory levels, which may lead to a replenishment cycle in the third quarter of 2025 [15]. - **Stock Selection**: Companies with strong overseas operations should be prioritized for investment, as they are less affected by the high tariffs imposed on Chinese goods [16]. - **Impact of U.S.-China Decoupling**: The increasing decoupling between the U.S. and China makes U.S. customs data more relevant for industry research, providing better insights into trade changes and their effects on the market [17].

美中贸易全国委员会：中国市场仍是企业维持全球竞争力的关键所在 金十数据7月16日讯，当地时间7月16日，美中贸易全国委员会发布2025年《中国商业环境调查》报告。 报告称，中美关系及关税影响成为美国企业面临的主要挑战，但中国市场仍是企业维持全球竞争力的关 键所在。 （央视新闻） ...