【沪镍、不锈钢主力合约节后走势及产业动态】沪镍主力合约节后整体偏弱运行，5 月 12 日价格收于 126130 元/吨，后偏弱震荡，最终收于 124060 元/吨。不锈钢主力合约周内走势偏强震荡，5 月 12 日价 格收于 12890 元/吨，此后窄幅震荡，最终收盘于 12965 元/吨。现货市场，金川镍价格维持升水，调整 至 127125 元/吨，升水幅度 2100 元/吨。硫酸镍较镍豆溢价扩大到 2675 元/镍吨，镍豆生产硫酸镍利润 率为-3.3%。库存方面，上期所纯镍库存 27808 吨，LME镍库存 199146 吨。304/2B 切边不锈钢出厂价 均价 13300 元/吨，304 不锈钢冷轧利润率-7.29%左右，不锈钢社会库存 975400 吨，8%-12%高镍生铁出 厂价调整至 941.5 元/镍点，镍铁累库至 29554.5 吨。基本面上，周内整体走势偏弱。上周一镍价因菲律 宾禁矿扰动情绪上行，后续持续回调。镍矿供应偏紧，菲律宾和印尼部分产区受降雨影响，产量和装船 量不及预期，印尼内贸镍矿基准价坚挺，升水高位，镍矿短期或持续坚挺，下行空间有限。硫酸镍支撑 松动，价格稳中偏弱，下游需求减少，市 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/16 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

| 19 E K # 5 | 日度策略参 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品種 | 股指 | 震荡 | 持有的多头头寸考虑减仓,警惕进一步调整风险。 | 110 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 容间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | | | 短期金价或进入盘整;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。明终 | 農汤 | 黄金 | 整体跟随黄金,但关税超预期结果将利好白银商品属性,因此短 | 農法 | 三 千尺 | | | | 期银价韧性或强于黄金。 | 近期市场情绪好转,铜价走高,但下游需求转弱,铜价存在回调 | 股 | | | | | | | 风险。 | 电解铝自身产业面无明显矛盾,在中美贸易谈判结果超预期情况 | 看头 | | | | | | | 下,铝价延续反弹走势。 | 铝土矿及氧化铝供应扰动有所提升,氧化铝供需格局有所好转 | 氧化铝 | | | | | | | 短期价格或进一步反弹。 | 步入淡季终端需求明显走弱,叠加 ...

免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【原料及现货】截至5月15日，杯胶54.15（+0.10)泰铢/千克，胶乳61.75（+0.50）泰铢/千克。云南胶水 收购价14000（+100）元/吨，海南新鲜胶乳14100（+200）元/吨，全乳胶上海市场15000（-150）元/ 吨，青岛保税区泰标1800（-20）美元/吨，泰混14800（-100）元/吨。 【轮胎开工率及库存】截至5月15日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为71.21%，环比+24.50个百分 点，同比-7.98个百分点。"五一"假期过后，企业多按计划复工复产，目前多数半钢胎企业已恢复至常规 水平。然整体出货偏慢，库存延续增长态势。中国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为59.88%，环比+18.19个 百分点，同比-5.40个百分点。 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 15 日 热点品种 PVC： 上游电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC 开工率环比增加 1.01 个百分点至 80.34%， PVC 开工率继续增加，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。五一节后，PVC 下游开工有 所回升，但同比往年仍偏低，采购较为谨慎。印度反倾销政策不利于国内 PVC 的 出口，印度将 BIS 政策再次延期六个月至 2025 年 6 月 24 日执行，中国台湾台塑 5 月份报价稳定，出口高价成交受阻，但低价出口交付较好。上周社会库存略有 下降，只是目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025 年 1-3 月份，房地产数据略有 改善，只是同比仍是负数，且新开工与竣工面积同比降幅仍较大。五一假期过后， 30 大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比小幅回升，但仍是历年同期偏低水平，关 注房地产利好政策能否提振商品房销售。春检过半，据统计春检规模不及去年同 期，近期开工率持续反弹，需求未实质性改善之前 PVC 压力较大。只是近期 PVC 期价增仓持续下跌后，在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For copper, overnight LME copper rose slightly and then declined. The domestic demand orders may gradually slow down as the peak season turns to the off - season. The Sino - US trade negotiation progress is expected to boost copper prices in the short term. Copper prices are expected to reach the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, but attention should be paid to the downstream acceptance and potential price fluctuations [1]. - For aluminum, alumina and Shanghai aluminum are oscillating strongly. Aluminum ingots continue to show a slight de - stocking state. The short - strong and long - weak pattern of aluminum prices continues. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption situation and subsequent tariff negotiation dynamics [1][2]. - For nickel, macro sentiment has improved, and the Philippine nickel ore event has attracted market attention. In the short term, nickel ore is relatively strong, but the overall trend is still oscillating. If domestic primary nickel continues to accumulate inventory, it will put pressure on nickel prices [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Trump pressured the Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates, and the dollar's V - shaped trend restricted copper price increases. China's April social financing and new RMB loans data and M2 - M1 spread changes were reported. LME copper inventory decreased by 4,075 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 1,749 tons. Domestic demand orders are relatively stable but may slow down. Sino - US trade progress is expected to boost copper prices, with prices expected to reach 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, but attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and potential price drops [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum are oscillating strongly. Alumina AO2509 closed at 2,979 yuan/ton with a 3.51% increase, and AL2506 closed at 20,255 yuan/ton with a 0.67% increase. Aluminum ingot prices changed from a discount to a premium. Some downstream processing fees changed. Aluminum ingots continued to de - stock slightly. The short - strong and long - weak pattern of aluminum prices continues, and attention should be paid to inventory - consumption and tariff negotiations [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel rose 0.35%, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.92%. LME inventory decreased by 84 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 398 tons. Nickel ore prices are strong, and some stainless steel production has decreased, but demand - side inventory has increased. In the new energy sector, raw material supply has recovered, and the demand for ternary precursors has decreased slightly. In the short term, the market sentiment has improved, but overall, it is still oscillating, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes of various copper products such as flat - water copper, scrap copper, and downstream products were reported. LME and COMEX inventory changes, as well as other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and import profit and loss, were also provided [3]. - **Lead**: The average price and other indicators of lead remained stable, with some minor changes in lead ore prices and processing fees. LME and SHFE inventory changes and import profit and loss were also reported [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices, raw material prices, downstream processing fees, and inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories were reported. Import profit and loss and other indicators were also provided [4]. - **Nickel**: Price changes of various nickel products, including electrolytic nickel, nickel iron, nickel ore, stainless steel, and new energy products, were reported. Inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as import profit and loss, were also provided [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices, including the main settlement price, spot price, and alloy price, increased. TC remained stable, and inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories were reported [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price of tin increased, and the price of tin concentrate also rose. Inventory changes in LME and SHFE, as well as import profit and loss, were reported [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [7][8][11]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 were presented [12][15][18]. - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [20][22][23]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [25][27][29]. - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 were presented [31][33][35]. - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [38][40][42]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: Holds a science master's degree, serves as the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. Has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines [45]. - **王珩**: Holds a finance master's degree from the University of Adelaide, Australia. Serves as a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. Focuses on domestic non - ferrous industry research and new energy industry chain dynamics [45]. - **朱希**: Holds a science master's degree from the University of Warwick, UK. Serves as a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. Focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and tracks new energy industry chain dynamics [46].

氯碱日报 | 2025-05-15 宏观情绪提振，PVC盘面大幅上行 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 上游生产利润：山东烧碱利润1590元/吨（+0）；山东氯碱综合利润（0.8吨液氯）917.8元/吨（+39.2）；山东氯碱综 合利润（1吨PVC）175.79元/吨（+70.00）；西北氯碱综合利润（1吨PVC）1260.43元/吨（+30.00）。 烧碱库存与开工：液碱工厂库存38.84万吨（-2.74）；片碱工厂库存3.03万吨（+0.52）；烧碱开工率83.90%（-0.20%）。 烧碱下游开工：氧化铝开工率75.76%（-0.20%）；印染华东开工率60.68%（+0.62%）；粘胶短浅开工率81.00% （+1.29%）。 市场分析 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4986元/吨（+149）；华东基差-186元/吨（-59）;华南基差-116元/吨（-59）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4800元/吨（+90）；华南电石法报价4870元/吨（+90）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；电石利润206元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-705元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - On May 14, 2025, the improvement of macro - sentiment led to a short - covering rally in the lithium carbonate futures market. The downstream demand was mainly met by customer - supplied and long - term contracts, while upstream lithium salt plants had strong price - holding intentions. The US tariff policy created an expectation of rush exports for Chinese energy - storage cells, but falling ore prices and high inventories suppressed prices. Meanwhile, China's new energy vehicle exports showed significant growth in April [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - On May 14, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2507 opened at 63,860 yuan/ton and closed at 65,200 yuan/ton, up 3.0% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 377,525 lots, and the open interest was 276,956 lots, a decrease of 17,270 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 465,422 lots, a decrease of 3,011 lots, and the total trading volume increased by 198,389 lots compared to the previous day. The overall speculation degree was 1.02. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 36,716 lots, an increase of 272 lots from the previous day [1]. Spot Market - According to SMM data, on May 14, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,600 - 65,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,550 - 63,550 yuan/ton, also up 100 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate showed a slight upward trend. Downstream procurement willingness was low, mainly relying on customer - supplied and long - term contracts. Upstream lithium salt plants had strong price - holding intentions due to cost losses, and there were some transactions between traders and downstream enterprises. The US tariff policy created an expectation of rush exports for Chinese energy - storage cells, but falling ore prices and high inventories suppressed prices. In April, China's automobile exports reached 424,000 units, up 8.3% month - on - month and 1.4% year - on - year. New energy vehicle exports reached 186,000 units, up 32.6% month - on - month and 64.5% year - on - year [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, the improvement of the macro situation drives the futures price to rebound. Traders can conduct range trading, and upstream producers can sell on rallies for hedging. - Inter - delivery spread: Not recommended. - Inter - commodity spread: Not recommended. - Futures - cash: Not recommended. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear - spread options [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after continuous decline, due to improved macro - sentiment, previous short - position funds left the market for profit, leading to a reduction in positions and an upward movement in the futures market. Fundamentally, although there is some production reduction on the supply side, with the approaching of the wet season in the southwest, supply is expected to increase, and cost support has weakened. Consumption is weak, and there is a possibility of further production reduction, so the overall fundamentals are weak [2][3]. - For polysilicon, the futures price fluctuated widely on the day, and the spot market price remained stable with light trading. In May, production continued to decline on both the supply and demand sides. The actual production reduction situation remains to be observed, and the overall consumption has weakened [5][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 14, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded. The main contract 2506 opened at 8305 yuan/ton and closed at 8490 yuan/ton, a change of 225 yuan/ton (2.72%) from the previous settlement. The main contract 2505 had a position of 146,525 lots at the close, and on May 15, the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,531 lots, a change of 37 lots from the previous day. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 10300 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Xinjiang, and Sichuan continued to decline. The price of 97 silicon remained stable. - The consumption side: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 yuan/ton. After the tariff issue was alleviated, it was beneficial to the export of organic silicon end - products, and organic silicon consumption might improve [2]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises are advised to sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 14, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures maintained wide - range fluctuations, opening at 38540 yuan/ton and closing at 38420 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.43% from the previous trading day. The main contract position reached 44,692 lots (52,252 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 236,082 lots. - The spot price of polysilicon was weakly stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg), dense material was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg), cauliflower material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg), granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg (unchanged), N - type material was 37.00 - 42.00 yuan/kg (- 1.00 yuan/kg), and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg). - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.70 (a month - on - month change of - 1.90%), silicon wafer inventory was 18.13GW (a month - on - month change of - 12.08%), weekly polysilicon production was 21,400.00 tons (a month - on - month change of - 4.46%), and silicon wafer production was 12.35GW (a month - on - month change of - 7.07%). - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. - On the supply side, production reduction continued in May, with a slight month - on - month decline of about 0.2 million tons in polysilicon production. On the demand side, the output of silicon wafer enterprises decreased by about 3GW month - on - month. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 20 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 40 lots (120 tons) [5][7][8]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, due to the short - term joint production reduction of production enterprises and the small number of warehouse receipts, but the weakening of consumption, the market will fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to mainly conduct range - bound operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [9].

Report Summary Key Points from the Fundamental Data - Futures data shows that RB2510 closed at 3,127 yuan/ton with a 38-yuan increase (1.23% up), and HC2510 closed at 3,267 yuan/ton with a 41-yuan increase (1.27% up). The trading volume of RB2510 was 2,134,942 lots, and its open interest decreased by 39,651 lots to 2,111,525 lots. HC2510 had a trading volume of 801,521 lots, and its open interest decreased by 2,694 lots to 1,351,894 lots [1]. - In the spot market, prices of both rebar and hot-rolled coil increased in major cities. For example, Shanghai rebar rose from 3,220 to 3,250 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot-rolled coil rose from 3,260 to 3,320 yuan/ton [1]. - Regarding price differences, the basis of RB2510 decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 123 yuan/ton, while the basis of HC2510 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 53 yuan/ton. Other spreads such as RB2510 - RB2601 and HC2510 - HC2601 also changed [1]. Key Points from the Macro and Industry News - On May 8, according to Steel Union's weekly data, rebar production decreased by 9.85 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 1.08 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 9.52 tons. Total inventory of rebar increased by 9.63 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 10.85 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 28.97 tons. Apparent demand for rebar decreased by 77.81 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 23.19 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties decreased by 125.66 tons [2]. - On May 14, it was reported that China's new RMB loans from January - April were 10.06 trillion yuan, lower than the estimate of 10.47 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the balance of local and foreign currency loans was 269.54 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The balance of RMB loans was 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. China's M2 money supply in April increased by 8% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The increment of social financing scale from January - April was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2][3]. Key Points from the Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive view according to the defined range [-2, 2] [3]. Core View The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are generally rising due to the push of macro - sentiment. However, there are mixed signals in the industry data, with production, inventory, and apparent demand showing different trends, and the macro - economic data also presents a complex picture [1][2][3]. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report.