有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 21 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 0.31%至 78100 元/吨。中 美关税冲突缓和，叠加国内密集出台"稳增长"政策组合拳，同时美国 通胀降温，美联储降息概率加大，整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖，对铜价 有所提振。基本面，铜精矿现货 TC 继续回落，创历史新低，但下跌速 度放缓，短期对炼厂产量影响不大。随着铜价上行，持货商挺价出货与 下游畏高保守采购形成博弈，下游订单新增相对有限，消费提升空间不 大，5 月部分铜材加工率环比有所下滑，虽好于去年同期，但需求已有 走弱迹象。旺季转淡，库存低位累库，对铜价的支撑作用减弱，现货升 水或将承压。整体来看，宏观偏好，而基本面有所转弱，沪铜近期或仍 维持震荡格局。 ◆ 铝： 截至 5 月 21 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约上涨 0.65%至 20190 元/吨。近 日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级，AXIS 矿区被 划入战略储备区域，禁止开采，推动氧化铝大涨，后续关注是否有复产 回旋余地。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加 10 万吨至 8685 万吨，全国氧 化铝库存 324.6 万吨，周度环比减少 4.2 万 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 22 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-22） | | | | | 铁矿：前期政策与情绪驱动的上涨动力逐步减弱，短期内回归基本面。铁 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 矿在强现实、强基差下，在黑色中估值偏强，在板块中以多配为主。当前 | | | | | | 钢厂盈利率水平较高，中美阶段性缓和带来新的补库需求，这轮关税会导 | | | 铁矿石 | | 逢高空配 | 致铁水在 245 万吨附近维持较长时间，短期盘面受到较强支撑。铁矿港口 | | | | | | 库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。同时外需出口提前透支， | | | | | | 中美关税"休缓期"在 8 月中上旬，利好 9-1 月差的走扩。中长期来看， | | | | | | 内需疲弱，铁矿仍以偏空思路对待。 | | | | | | 煤焦：主产地煤矿基本维持正常生产，焦煤供需宽松格局不变。由于焦煤 | | | | | | 价格的下移，焦化企业利润好转，目前多数焦企盈亏平衡状态。钢厂 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 观望 | 中美关系趋于缓和，利空金价；地 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | 缘政治频繁利多金价 | | 镍 | 2506 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 上游强势，下游弱势，镍趋于震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 核心逻辑：中短线 ...

Group 1 - The short-term macroeconomic positive effects are weakening, and terminal demand is facing downward pressure, leading to an increasing contradiction between supply and demand for rebar if steel mills maintain current supply levels, making it difficult for profits to sustain [1][5] - Recent macroeconomic developments include significant progress in US-China trade talks, with both sides agreeing to substantially reduce bilateral tariffs, and a reduction in the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) by the central bank [1][2] - The apparent consumption of rebar was 2.6029 million tons last week, showing a week-on-week increase of 463,900 tons, indicating some resilience in demand, but the overall downward trend remains unchanged [2] Group 2 - Steel mills have maintained high production levels, with rebar production at 2.2653 million tons last week, an increase of 30,000 tons week-on-week, despite expectations of administrative production restrictions [3] - The average daily pig iron production is at 2.4477 million tons, which is high for this time of year, but the oversupply of coking coal continues, leading to a weak pricing environment for both coking coal and coke [4] - The total inventory of rebar was 6.1987 million tons last week, a decrease of 337,600 tons week-on-week, but if demand weakens further, the supply-demand contradiction may gradually increase [3][4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the port shipping industry, particularly the impact of US-China tariff adjustments on export volumes and market dynamics [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Tariffs on Export Volumes** - Initial US-China tariff increases led to a significant reduction in container export volumes to the US, with declines ranging from 30% to 50% [1][4]. - Despite this, overall financial export amounts and port throughput remained positive due to preemptive shipping activities [1][4]. 2. **Regional Differences in Impact** - Northern ports were more adversely affected than southern ports, primarily due to differences in export product structures, with northern exports being more reliant on low-value raw materials [1][7][8]. 3. **Response of Shipping Companies** - Shipping companies adjusted capacity by skipping ports and reducing service frequency to maintain load factors and freight rates, with some capacity redirected to European and South American routes [1][9][13]. 4. **Market Reactions to Tariff Adjustments** - Following tariff reductions, there was a surge in inquiries and bookings from US importers, indicating a positive outlook for export volumes [1][12][14]. - By the end of May, US shipping capacity was nearly fully booked, supporting an increase in freight rates [1][14]. 5. **Future Market Outlook** - The sustainability of the current shipping market conditions will depend on tariff policy expectations in the next 90 days, influencing whether companies will continue large-scale production and exports [2][15][17]. - The upcoming holiday season is traditionally a peak period, and companies are preparing for increased orders and production [15]. 6. **Transshipment Trade Performance** - Transshipment trade remained stable, with no significant increase in shipping rates on Southeast Asian routes, as companies were cautious due to origin policy risks [1][10]. 7. **Long-term Industry Trends** - Tariff tensions may drive growth in Southeast Asian markets, as companies adapt their overseas production capabilities to mitigate impacts [16]. - The structural growth trend in container shipping markets is expected to continue, driven by shifts in production and supply chains [16]. Other Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring policy changes and market indicators to assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on the shipping industry [6][17]. - The differences in export product structures between northern and southern ports were emphasized as a critical factor in understanding regional impacts [7][8]. - The call also noted that large retailers operating under FOB terms showed resilience, continuing exports despite tariff increases [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that recent economic indicators for April demonstrate the resilience of China's economy, with some data exceeding market expectations, particularly an 8.1% year-on-year increase in goods exports in USD terms [1] - Despite a decline in exports and imports with the US by 21% and 13% respectively, exports to non-US regions have significantly increased, indicating a need to reassess the impact of tariffs on the economy in May and June [1] - The expectation for further policy easing may need to be re-evaluated based on the stable growth in production and demand, contrary to previous market expectations of economic pressure [1] Group 2 - The next phase will see more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on stabilizing the domestic economic cycle, particularly through the real estate market [2] - From January to April, general public budget expenditure increased by 4.6%, while government fund budget expenditure rose by 17.7%, indicating a broad fiscal expenditure growth of over 7% [2] - The adjustment of micro-policies is crucial, as current low price phenomena are influenced not only by supply relations but also by the micro-market environment and pricing systems [2] Group 3 - The expansion of domestic demand strategy should focus on structural adjustments rather than just short-term stimulus, requiring a shift in understanding macro policies from crisis management to mid-term structural adjustments [3] - A better understanding of the relationship between policy choices, coordination of macro and micro policies, and the balance between short-term policies and mid-term reforms is essential for enhancing economic resilience [3]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal data for January to April 2025 shows a narrowing decline in tax and land transfer revenues, alongside proactive government spending, indicating a more aggressive fiscal policy in response to economic conditions [2][3]. Revenue Summary - National general public budget revenue for the first four months reached 8.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, which is a narrowing of 0.7% compared to the previous month [2]. - Tax revenue for the same period totaled 655.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, but April marked the first month of positive growth at 1.9% [5]. - Major tax categories showed varied performance, with domestic VAT at 262.54 billion yuan (up 1.8%), domestic consumption tax at 65.02 billion yuan (up 1.8%), and personal income tax at 53.76 billion yuan (up 7.4%) [5]. - Non-tax revenue growth has slowed to 7.7%, significantly below the three-year average of 11.1% [5]. Expenditure Summary - General public budget expenditure for January to April was 9.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, exceeding the annual expected growth rate of 4.4% [7]. - Social welfare, education, and health expenditures rose by 6.6%, contributing 2.9% to total fiscal spending [7]. - Infrastructure-related spending decreased by 2.3%, but the decline is narrowing, indicating potential future improvements as special government bonds are issued [7][8]. - Government fund expenditure reached 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, driven by accelerated special bond issuance [8]. Debt and Policy Outlook - The issuance of government bonds, including special bonds, has increased significantly, with a total increase of 3.7 trillion yuan in government debt from January to May [8]. - Future fiscal policies are expected to focus on enhancing consumer spending, social welfare, and support for real estate projects [8][9].

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.21） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：区间震荡，沪深 300 指数保持相对韧性 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：持有 IF2506 多单、多 IF2506 空 IM2506 对冲组合 核心逻辑： 1.中美关税缓和短期提振风险偏好，后续二阶段磋商仍是关键。指数位置看，市场经历 近 1 个月修复，当前主要指数已回到对等关税前水平，止盈情绪有所升温。参考历史规律， 贸易谈判不确定性仍存，特定行业关税方面，美国在钢铁、药品、半导体等领域仍有"战略 脱钩"的可能。利多兑现后，短期权益市场缺乏上行动能。 2.稳定和活跃资本市场政策接连出台，进一步优化 A 股市场投资生态。第三批险资长期 投资试点、公募基金管理费收取模式改革、上市公司并购重组新的安排等，均有利于为 A 股注入增量资金和改善市场活跃度。中短期而言，中低风险偏好的主动权益资金进一步加大 沪深 300 等权重行业配置或加大红利资产的配置。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：T2509 或 TL2509 多单持有 核心逻辑： 1.基本面看， ...

【导读】周二股票ETF资金净流出超40亿元 5月20日（本周二），A股三大指数集体上涨，两市成交1.17万亿元。 部分资金选择落袋为安。股票ETF当日资金净流出超40亿元，军工、AI、非银金融等行业主题ETF净流入居前，医药、港股互联网及美股相关ETF净流出 较多。 5月以来，股票ETF已有多个交易日呈现资金净流出，合计"失血"超570亿元。 股票ETF资金净流出超40亿元 数据统计，截至5月20日，全市场股票ETF达到1091只（含跨境ETF，下同），总规模为3.53万亿元。 资金流向显示，5月20日，市场上行之际，股票ETF净流出资金超40亿元，这是本周连续第二个交易日资金净流出。 当日资金净流入超过1亿元的股票ETF有8只，行业主题ETF"吸金"明显，富国、广发、国泰旗下军工ETF位居前三，资金净流入均超1.5亿元。 统计显示，资金净流入前20大股票ETF中，国防军工类ETF有4只，证券类ETF有3只。从5日角度观测，近期资金流入科创50指数超16亿元，流入中证军工 超9亿元。 头部基金公司中，5月20日，易方达基金ETF最新规模为6398.6亿元，创业板ETF净流入0.9亿元，机器人ETF易方达净流入 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 4 月财政总体宽松，环比扩张高位放缓 华泰研究 4 月财政数据点评 低基数下 4 月广义财政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比进一步上行 至 12.9%，显示财政政策总体维持温和宽松态势、但财政扩张动能环比季 节性放缓。一般公共预算支出增速较 3 月略回升至 5.8%，政府性基金支出 在低基数下大幅走高至 44.7%，专项债发行前置推动政府性基金支出持续回 升；4 月广义财政收入同比亦转正至 2.7%，主要受政府性基金收入大幅回 升的提振，同时一季度名义增速实现良好开局、亦可能部分体现在财政收入 改善层面。财政支出结构中，城乡社区事务、交通运输、卫生健康等支出同 比回升。4 月广义财政赤字录得 3,367 亿元、较去年同期多增 2,479 亿元、 财政政策保持宽松态势。此外，低基数下财政存款同比从 3 月的 17%上行 至 21.5%，或反映政府发债融资前置、但财政资金拨付仍待提速。 2025 年 5 月 20 日│中国内地 动态点评 往前看，5 月中美关税降级后"抢出口"窗口期可能继续支撑生产及出口增 长，但中长期外需不确定性犹存，财政政策亦有必要进一步加力、以夯实 总需求回升的基础。 ...