人们总是因为太多的噪音而忽视更重要的信号。这次从 BTC 110k+ / ETH 4100 到 84k / 2700 耗时 24 天左右，有两个巨大信号未被重视先思考这轮牛市的来源。和以往牛市，杠杆牛的不同之处在于，这轮牛市的动力来源具有本质上的异质性。是由 DAT 的资产配置与 TradFi 通过 ETF 等工具的入局所主导的牛市。这一转变带来的最大的影响是：加密资产的定价权已大部分转移到圈外因此，1011 大清算完成的是对场内山寨的重击，但对 BTC / ETH 来说是影响较弱的。主要的下跌发生在 1011 后，甚至主流币价格远低于当日插针价格。那些来自圈外的、真正触及本轮上涨根本驱动力的巨大信号被市场严重低估，并且值得后续继续重视：那就是 IBIT 和 DAT 的卖出信号。IBIT 近期首次的大额卖出是 Oct 20，DAT 首次卖出 $ETH 是 Oct 28。然而，一个月前的我们在天天看着 Hyperliquid 上的大额开单赌狗（所谓的内幕哥），却少有人在人声鼎沸处提示圈外资金砸盘的风险第一性原理：资金的流向和供需关系。复盘一下这些更加第一性的逻辑，让下一次做判断的时候思路更清晰。需要感谢 @0x ...

ZHESHANG FUTURES 【L周报20251123】供需弱势难改 核心观点 【免責声明】 2025-11-23 ® 观点： 聚乙烯 震荡下行阶段，后期价格中枢有望下降 ® 合约: 12601 ® 還撮: 【处于产能投放原期中，新增装置陆续落地，存量负荷也较高，同时Q4进口有望放量，供应压力较大；需求进入旺季尾声，难以稍化高产量，在供需过剩之下，聚烯铝价格量心或持续下移。 | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参与角色 | 行为駒 | 情得向 | 现货散口 | 策略推荐 | 套保衍生品 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | | | | | | 针对待销售PE量在盘面买入看跌期权来 预防价格下跌风险 | I2601-P-6700 | 买入 | 50 | 53 | | | | 炼厂 | 库存管理 | 库存偏高，担心PE价格下跌 | 多 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 针对待销售PE量 ...

截至2025年11月21日当周，沥青期货主力合约收于3009元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持26713 手。 宝城期货：综合来看，沥青供应端因利润下降而被动收缩；需求端受制于资金与天气因素，呈现"北弱 南强"的区域分化，整体复苏动能不足。沥青社会库存去化缓解了市场压力，但炼厂库存的边际累增也 预示着销售压力的加大。在供需双弱的大背景下，后市沥青期货或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 一德期货：百川炼厂库存增加、社库减少，短期供需驱动中性。中期来看，11月供应同比基本持平，预 计炼厂库存开始累积，社会库存减少，盘面计价冬储预期价格，近期稀释沥青贴水下跌，关注原油价格 方向。 截至11月21日当周，70家样本企业社会库存79.4万吨，环比下降3.1万吨，山东社会库存25.9万吨，环比 下降3.9万吨。 机构观点汇总： 本周（11月17日-11月21日）市场上看，沥青期货周内开盘报3048元/吨，最高触及3084元/吨，最低下探 至2976元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-0.63%。 消息面回顾： 本周国内沥青54家企业厂家样本出货量共36.2万吨，环比减少18.7%；国内69家样本改性沥青企业产能 利用率为12.6%，环比节前减 ...

震荡磨底之中 短期低点已现 原油周报 2025/11/22 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 05 原油需求 08 另类数据 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish or bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, with the same implications as crude oil [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, similar to the above [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, also suggesting a slightly bullish or bearish trend with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term multi/empty trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it's better to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cyclical inflection point of oil prices caused by supply contraction has not been seen, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is limited, with the market trending weakly in a volatile manner [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil is under multiple pressures, and its weak trend is expected to continue, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening, but the supply rebound risk from the RFCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria at the end of December needs attention [2] - The cost support for asphalt is continuously weakening, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] - The supply of liquefied petroleum gas has an incremental bearish suppression, and the supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally, causing the LPG trading floor to turn weak [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell further, with the SC01 contract dropping 1.67% during the day [2] - The geopolitical risk premium between Russia and Ukraine was suppressed, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is limited, with the market trending weakly in a volatile manner [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight crude oil price drop dragged down the fuel oil market [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces multiple pressures, including the possible decline of geopolitical factors, the steady increase in production in the Middle East, the end of the power generation peak season, and the possible weakening of refinery feed demand. Its weak trend is expected to continue [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening due to supply - side disturbances, strong diesel cracking, and increased demand. However, the supply rebound risk from the RFCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria at the end of December needs attention [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to - 11 US dollars per barrel, and the cost support continued to weaken [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has decreased month - on - month and is at a low level in the same period of the past four years. The commercial inventory depletion has slowed down, and the year - on - year increase of social inventory has expanded. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - This week, the commodity volume decreased but the arrival volume increased, with supply having an incremental bearish suppression [4] - The profitability improvement of butane dehydrogenation units boosted the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting work, and the demand on the combustion side improved due to the significant cooling in many places [4] - The supply - demand relationship weakened marginally, causing the LPG trading floor to turn weak [4]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.21」 热轧卷板市场周报 成本支撑减弱 热卷期价震荡偏弱 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至11月21日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3270（+14），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3320（+0）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：热卷产量小幅上调。316.01（+2.35），（同比+4.16）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求增加。本期表需324.42（+10.83），（同比+8.82）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增、社库降。总库存402.11（-8.41），（同比+86.88）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率37.66%，环比上周减少1.30个百分点，同比去年减少16.89个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储公布10月28日至29日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOM ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Rebound and short [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish continuation [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, with most products showing bearish or cautiously bearish trends due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical disturbances, and cost - related issues. Some products like PTA and natural gas show bullish or cautiously bullish trends because of improved supply - demand and seasonal demand factors respectively [1][3][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: WTI decreased by 0.42%, Brent by 0.20%, and SC by 1.77%. WTI was at $59/barrel, Brent at $63.38/barrel, and SC at 455 yuan/barrel [6][7] - **Basic Logic**: Core driver is supply surplus and inventory accumulation; short - term driver is geopolitical disturbance [8] - **Fundamentals**: Saudi's September exports reached 646 million barrels/day. OPEC predicts 2025 demand increment of 130 million barrels/day and 2026 of 138 million barrels/day. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 342 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ending November 14 [9] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on SC in the range of [445 - 455] [10] LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 20, PG main contract closed at 4382 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [12] - **Basic Logic**: Anchored to crude oil price, with downstream开工率下降 and inventory accumulation [13] - **Strategy**: Lightly short. Focus on PG in the range of [4350 - 4450] [14] L - **Market Performance**: L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton (+30) [16] - **Basic Logic**: Basis repair, domestic开工率 seasonal increase, import arrival concentration, and weak downstream demand [18] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term. Focus on L in the range of [6800 - 6950] [18] PP - **Market Performance**: PP2601 closed at 6429 yuan/ton (-51) [21] - **Basic Logic**: Following cost decline, high inventory, and insufficient demand [22] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term. Focus on PP in the range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PVC - **Market Performance**: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5) [25] - **Basic Logic**: Weak fundamentals, high inventory, but low - valuation support [26] - **Strategy**: Industry hedging at high prices. Look for low - long opportunities. Focus on V in the range of [4400 - 4650] [26] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 was at 4754 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Low processing fees, increased device maintenance, and relatively good downstream demand. Cost - side PX is strong [28] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on TA in the range of [4670 - 4750] [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: EG01 was at 4013 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic Logic**: Increased domestic coal - based device maintenance, new device production, and weakening downstream demand expectations. Inventory accumulation expected in November [31] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on EG in the range of [3790 - 3850] [32] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [33] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppressing prices, high domestic and overseas device开工率, and weak demand [35] - **Strategy**: Short positions held cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on 05 contract at low prices [3] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR01 was at 1652 yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: High supply, weakening demand, and high inventory [39] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on UR in the range of [1645 - 1675] [40] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 20, NG main contract closed at $4.753/million British thermal units, up 3.48% [43] - **Basic Logic**: Seasonal demand increase, cost - profit improvement, and supply - demand situation [44] - **Strategy**: Price is likely to rise but upside is limited. Focus on NG in the range of [4.548 - 4.901] [45] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 20, BU main contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 0.43% [47] - **Basic Logic**: Following crude oil price, supply - demand imbalance, and cost - profit situation [48] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on BU in the range of [3000 - 3100] [49] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16) [52] - **Basic Logic**: Supply decline difficult, weak domestic demand due to falling real - estate prices [53] - **Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the long - term. Focus on FG in the range of [1000 - 1050] [53] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [54] - **Basic Logic**: Decreased demand support and high - production cycle [5] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices closed down. The macro - non - farm data was below expectations, pressuring the market. European ARA hub inventory data showed mixed trends. The market is fragile and sensitive to negatives, and oil prices are expected to continue oscillating [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices fell on Thursday. Singapore's October sales data showed growth and decline in different types. In November, sufficient inventory will suppress the low - sulfur market, while the high - sulfur market has relatively healthy downstream demand, and prices are expected to be weak [3] - **Asphalt**: The futures price rose on Thursday. Supply may decline slightly in the short - term due to profit reduction, and downstream demand is limited due to weather, so the price is treated with a bearish view [3] - **Polyester**: Futures prices of related products fell. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations. With the improvement of the PTA fundamentals, its price is expected to oscillate strongly, while the ethylene glycol has short - term supply improvement but medium - term inventory pressure, and its price will adjust widely [5] - **Rubber**: Futures prices fell on Thursday. The supply pressure increases while the downstream demand is weak externally, but winter storage demand supports the price, so the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Methanol**: Supply has returned to a high level recently, but Iranian devices may stop in the future, and port inventory is expected to decline from December to January, so the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - **Polyolefins**: The market is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the low valuation may prompt downstream actions, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Market prices in different regions decreased. Supply remains high, and demand will decline due to the slowdown of real - estate construction, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 12 - month contract closed down $0.3 to $59.14/barrel, Brent 1 - month contract closed down $0.13 to $63.38/barrel, and SC2512 closed at 456.7 yuan/barrel, down 1.7 yuan/barrel. The non - farm employment increased by 119,000 in August, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. European ARA hub diesel inventory decreased by nearly 5%, gasoline inventory slightly decreased, naphtha inventory increased by nearly 10%, aviation fuel inventory slightly decreased, and fuel oil inventory increased [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.76% to 2517 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) fell 3.5% to 3139 yuan/ton. In October 2025, Singapore's total marine fuel sales were 4.8177 million tons, with a 1.1% month - on - month increase and a 1.23% year - on - year decrease. In November, low - sulfur supply is abundant, and high - sulfur has relatively healthy demand [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract (BU2601) rose 0.33% to 3058 yuan/ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased by 18.7% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.34% at 4696 yuan/ton, EG2601 closed down 2.08% at 3822 yuan/ton, and PX601 closed down 0.58% at 6830 yuan/ton. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations, and the PTA load was adjusted to 72.1% [5] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 190 yuan/ton to 15250 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 160 yuan/ton to 12320 yuan/ton. Rubber production is seasonally increasing, and imports are increasing year - on - year [6] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2000 yuan/ton. Domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and Iranian devices may stop in the future [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the price of East China PP and PE had different trends, and the profit of various production methods was negative. The market is gradually shifting to strong supply and weak demand [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply remains high, and demand will decline due to real - estate construction slowdown [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical products on November 20 and 19, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non - farm employment increased by 119,000 in August, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. The ARA hub's inventory data for diesel, gasoline, naphtha, aviation fuel, and fuel oil in the week ending November 20 was released [12][13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of different products over time, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32][37][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different varieties, including crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE, PP, etc. [68]

转自：期货日报 今年以来，丁二烯、合成橡胶产能投放速度加快，我国轮胎企业成品库存偏高，全钢胎、半钢胎开工率低迷等因素，导致 合成橡胶市场承压运行。 四季度仍有新产能投放 近年来，随着恒力石化、浙石化、中科炼化、海南炼化、盛虹炼化、中石油广东炼化等炼化一体化装置陆续投产，中国丁 二烯行业进入高速扩能期。今年国内丁二烯产能投放较为集中。据隆众资讯数据，截至目前，中国丁二烯总产能达到757.7 万吨／年，较上年增长14.16%。今年国内新增装置5套，产能合计105万吨／年，剔除11万吨／年的退出产能，年内产能净 增量为94万吨／年。其中，中国石油天然气有限公司广西石化分公司18万吨新产能计划在11月份投产。丁二烯供应量及增 速偏高。近期，丁二烯装置有部分处于检修状态，也有一些装置完成检修后开工或新装置投产，整体开工情况较为复杂， 市场供应较为充裕。 2025年中国合成橡胶产能呈现显著扩张，全年总产能预计将突破800万吨，占全球总量的32%。已投产的产能包括：年初裕 龙石化15万吨／年镍系／钕系顺丁橡胶装置顺利投产并已达产；浙江石化一套10万吨／年装置于3月建成投产；传化合成材 料12万吨／年新产能于2024年下半年 ...

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