Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests that methanol 2601 will run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation weakly" respectively. The overall price of methanol is expected to face downward pressure due to the weak supply - demand structure [1][5]. Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - The price of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly decreased by 0.89% to 2349 yuan/ton in the night session last Friday. It is predicted that the contract may maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Monday [5]. Driving Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol prices are now dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season, causing the price center to face downward pressure. Additionally, the slight decline in domestic coal futures prices and the suppression of weak industrial factors also contribute to the weak trend of methanol [5].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a mixed fundamental outlook, with supply concerns heightened by a decrease in copper concentrate processing fees and a production cut forecast from Chile's Codelco, while demand expectations are improving marginally due to the upcoming peak season [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Copper concentrate processing fees have fallen into negative territory, raising supply concerns [1] - Codelco, a major Chilean copper producer, has lowered its annual production forecast, exacerbating supply worries [1] Group 2: Demand Outlook - Social inventory has decreased over the past week, although the absolute level remains low, leading to improved demand expectations as the peak season approaches [1] - The upcoming "golden September and silver October" period is anticipated to drive marginal improvements in demand [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The collective inventory accumulation across LME, COMEX, and SHFE indicates weak terminal consumption during the off-season [1] - Increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule has dampened market sentiment, limiting financial support for copper prices [1] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The copper market is characterized by a coexistence of tight supply and inventory accumulation, alongside fluctuating macroeconomic drivers, suggesting a short-term oscillation in price [1] - The market is awaiting validation of demand during the peak season and clearer policy signals [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The processing fee of copper concentrates has fallen into the negative range, and Codelco in Chile has lowered its annual production forecast, intensifying supply concerns [4]. - The social inventory has decreased this week, and the absolute quantity remains at a low level. The approaching peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" drive the expectation of marginal improvement in demand [4]. - The three major exchanges, LME, COMEX, and SHFE, have collectively accumulated inventory, reflecting weak terminal consumption during the off - season [4]. - The uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm has increased, and the decline in market sentiment suppresses the support of the financial attribute [4]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper are mixed, with the contradiction between tight ore supply and inventory accumulation coexisting. Coupled with the repeated macro - drivers, it will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, waiting for the verification of peak - season demand and the clarification of policy signals [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) | Futures Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Position | Weekly Position Change | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main Contract | 79,410 yuan/ton | +0.91% | 173,826 | +52,924 | 71,061 | | Shanghai Copper Index Weighted | 79,394 yuan/ton | +0.95% | 479,332 | +18,695 | 156,498 | | International Copper | 70,490 yuan/ton | +1.08% | 3,755 | -217 | 4,869 | | LME Copper 3 - month | $9,839.5/ton | +1.22% | 239,014 | -38,282 | 14,271 | | COMEX Copper | $454.45/lb | +2.17% | 105,404 | +64,381 | 28,789 | [6] 3.2 Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 79,390 | +560 | +0.71% | | Shanghai Wumaohui | yuan/ton | 79,355 | +530 | +0.67% | | Guangdong Southern Storage | yuan/ton | 79,220 | +470 | +0.6% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 79,450 | +500 | +0.63% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 250 | +100 | +66.67% | | Shanghai Wumaohui Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 185 | +50 | +37.04% | | Guangdong Southern Storage Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 210 | +45 | +27.27% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 175 | +15 | +9.38% | | LME Copper (Spot/3 - month) Premium/Discount | $/ton | -82.79 | +7.96 | -8.77% | | LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) Premium/Discount | $/ton | -167.53 | -1.05 | +0.63% | [11][12] 3.3 Advanced Copper Data (Weekly) | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | 330.65 | +95.84 | +40.82% | | Copper Concentrate TC | $/ton | -41.06 | -2.86 | +7.49% | | Copper - Aluminum Ratio | Ratio | 3.8002 | -0.0087 | -0.23% | | Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference | yuan/ton | 1,252.66 | +218.62 | +21.14% | [13] 3.4 Copper Inventory (Weekly) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Value | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 21,412 | -2,736 | -11.33% | | International Copper Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 5,597 | -528 | -8.62% | | Shanghai Copper Inventory | tons | 79,748 | -1,950 | -2.39% | | LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 144,850 | -750 | -0.52% | | LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipt | tons | 13,100 | +2,350 | +21.86% | | LME Copper Inventory | tons | 157,950 | +1,600 | +1.02% | | COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 141,869 | +4,626 | +3.37% | | COMEX Copper Unregistered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 133,357 | -1,096 | -0.82% | | COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 275,226 | +3,530 | +1.3% | | Copper Ore Port Inventory | million tons | 47.3 | +5.1 | +12.09% | | Social Inventory | million tons | 41.82 | +0.43 | +1.04% | [19][21] 3.5 Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) | Production Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Production | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 127 | +14% | 862.3 | +9.9% | | Copper Products Production | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 216.9 | +8.3% | 1423.7 | +9.4% | [24] 3.6 Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) | Capacity Type | Date | Unit | Annual Total Capacity | Capacity Utilization | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 1,584 | 61.32% | -1% | -0.85% | | Scrap Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 819 | 26.73% | -5.28% | -3.43% | | Copper Plate and Strip Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 359 | 65.73% | -3% | -5.66% | | Copper Bar Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 228.65 | 50.45% | -1.07% | -1.47% | | Copper Tube Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 278.3 | 67.88% | -4.37% | +3.83% | [26] 3.7 Copper Element Imports (Monthly) | Import Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Concentrate Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 256.0072 | +18% | 1,731.7445 | +8% | | Anode Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 84,217 | +19% | 466,925 | -12% | | Cathode Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 296,896 | +8% | 1,943,043 | -6% | | Scrap Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 190,078 | -2% | 1,335,483 | -1% | | Copper Products Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 480,000 | +10% | 3,110,000 | -2.6% | [30]

Group 1 - The SP2509 contract experienced significant volatility in July, rising from 5080 points to a peak of 5560 points, an increase of 9.4%, followed by a decline of 6.1% in the last week [1] - The macroeconomic factors are driving the market more than the fundamentals, as indicated by the stable pulp spot market and weakening basis [1] - Global economic indicators, such as Citigroup's Global Surprise Index, have remained above zero this year, with most data exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - In June, China's social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, marking seven consecutive months of year-on-year growth, supporting the logic of a strong macroeconomic environment [1] - The supply of hardwood pulp has decreased compared to softwood pulp, while downstream consumption continues to rise, indicating a better fundamental outlook for hardwood pulp [1] - The price spread between hardwood and softwood pulp is expected to narrow from -174 points to -1211 points by the second half of 2024, reflecting an improvement in hardwood pulp fundamentals [1] Group 3 - The softwood pulp supply side is underperforming, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 0.92 in Europe for June, leading to seven consecutive months of inventory accumulation [1] - Domestic imports of softwood wood chips and pulp reached 793,000 tons in June, marking a marginal increase for seven consecutive months, which negatively impacts SP valuations [1] - The domestic paper industry is facing ongoing operational pressures, with total profits decreasing by 21.4% year-on-year in June and total losses increasing by 29.8% year-on-year [1] Group 4 - In May, electricity consumption in the paper industry was 846 million kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, falling below the average of 875 million kilowatt-hours for the previous year [1] - By the end of July, the paper industry issued an anti-involution initiative, aiming to reduce finished paper production, limit wood pulp capacity expansion, and improve the quality of finished paper [1] - Overall, the market fundamentals are considered average [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental support for copper is limited, and attention should be paid to the macro - driving factors next week [1] 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - The center of the Shanghai copper futures market has moved up, the sentiment of spot trading has weakened, and the premium is under pressure [10] - The week - on - week change of the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation this week is limited [12] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index this week increased by $0.82 per ton week - on - week to - $42.63 per ton, still negative [14] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at nine ports this week decreased by 169,700 tons week - on - week to 560,900 tons [17] - The spread between refined and scrap copper has strengthened [18] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in July is expected to continue to rise [20] - There is an import inversion of copper [21] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased week - on - week this week, while the bonded area inventory increased week - on - week [24] - The LME copper inventory continued to increase, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [26] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods decreased, and with the upward movement of the Shanghai copper center, new orders and提货量 decreased. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline next week [27] - From July 1st to 20th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 23% year - on - year and decreased by 12% compared with the same period last month [30] - The production of photovoltaic modules in July decreased month - on - month, and the overall production plan for August has limited month - on - month change [33] - According to Aowei Cloud Network, the production plan for household air conditioners in August is 1.1155 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% [35] Macroeconomic Data - China's social financing increment in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [37] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in July fell back into contraction, but the overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December [40] - Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting next week [42]