Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations on December 23, with the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) rising over 2% at one point, reaching a new high since its listing, driven by significant net subscriptions [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a net subscription of 31 million units, with an estimated net subscription amount exceeding 50 million yuan during the trading session [1]. - The ETF's performance indicators show a year-to-date increase of 87.92% and a 120-day increase of 62.58% [1]. - The ETF's top ten constituent stocks mostly experienced gains, with Shandong Gold (600547) up 6.72% and Tianqi Lithium rising over 3% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The spot gold price continued to rise, nearing $4,500 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70% [5]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 3%, continuing a trend of price increases, with expectations of further price support due to low inventory levels [7]. - Copper prices reached record highs, with forecasts suggesting potential increases to $13,000 per ton in the second quarter of 2026 [8]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The nonferrous metal sector is projected to maintain strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 90% year-to-date, positioning it as a leading industry [12]. - The 2026 outlook for basic metals, particularly copper and aluminum, is optimistic due to expected demand improvements and supply constraints [10]. - The demand for lithium and cobalt is anticipated to grow, with lithium prices expected to continue their upward trend due to supply and demand dynamics [11].

2026 年度中国期货市场投资报告 海外流动性风险尚未解除，新一轮量化宽松有望重启 宏观经济/资产配置 内容提要： 程 伟 宏观分析师 从业资格证：F3012252 投资咨询证：Z0012892 TEL：0516-83831160 E-MAIL：chengwei @neweraqh.com.cn 近期报告回顾： 美联储降息周期重启，全球 经济及大类资产展望（季 报）20250930 全球贸易摩擦及地缘局势 缓和背景下，大类资产配置 （半年报）20250630 国际环境复杂多变，超常规 政 策 依 然 可 期 （ 年 报 ） 20250101 投资有风险 理财请匹配 进入 2026 年，美国减税政策对经济的刺激作用将开始显现，关税政策对物价的影 响可能在下半年消退，美联储进一步降息的门槛明显升高，利率点阵图维持对年 内降息一次的预测；欧元区经济复苏乏力，通胀稳定在 2%的目标附近，欧洲央行 货币政策在进行 8 次降息后进入观察期；日本经济保持温和复苏，央行维持缓慢 加息的节奏，逐步实现利率政策正常化，可能引发海外日元套利资金回流，加剧 金融市场波动。 中央经济工作会议要求继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财 ...

[Table_Summary] ★欧洲经济弱复苏与库存周期寻底 年度报告——集装箱运价 宽松基调下的复航博弈 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 报告日期： 红海复航是决定 2026 年市场走向的核心变量。其进程取决于加 沙停火谈判等地缘政治进展。若复航范围有限，市场影响可控； 若实现全面、稳定复航，将释放约 30%被"锁定"的运力，瞬 间逆转供需，导致运价承受巨大下行压力，并重塑市场格局。 关键观察窗口在 2026 年春节后及 9-10 月。 ★2026 年行情展望： 2026 年市场"供需宽松"的基调未变，运价中枢面临下行压力。 若绕行持续，运价将呈"季节性宽幅震荡"，船公司通过策略调 控维持一定价格弹性；若红海全面复航，市场将切换至"成本 击穿与再平衡"逻辑，运价可能快速下行至非绕行成本区间 （1000-1200 美元/FEU）。红海局势乃是关键。 ★风险提示： 地缘反复，欧洲经济超预期，贸易摩擦反复等 欧线（看跌） 兰淅 高级分析师（航运） 欧洲经济在政策托底与内需修复下呈弱复苏，为集装箱需求提 供基础支撑，但自 2025 年三季度开启的欧美同步去库存周期将 压制短期货量增长，预计至 2026 年四季 ...

白酒股不缺关注，尤其是最近。无论是终端价格，还是库存、股价，始终牵动着投资者的心弦。 最近，我们再次邀请基金经理田瑀做客直播间。田瑀对白酒行业有长期且深入的研究，本次直播中，他就大家 关心的库存、场景、抽样调研等问题，进行了详细的解答。以下为直播实录。 提问 您一直以来都是寻找有宽护城河的企业，在之前的直播和文章中，提到过高端白酒企业拥有很宽的护城 河。但近期市场部分高端白酒产品的价格已经失守了某些特定的点位。您觉得这是因为高端白酒的护城河变窄 了，还是仅仅因为库存周期？ 田瑀 首先说结论，这不是因为护城河变窄了。 在漫长的时间周期里，价格下跌并不是第一次发生，在2014-2015年期间也出现过高端产品价格跌至800元左右 的情况。 高端白酒的价格出现周期性波动，是历史上一直存在的现象， 并非护城河变窄，而是周期性的问题，但不仅 仅只是因为库存周期。 库存周期起到了一定作用。本质上，还是 经济的周期性波动带来了终端需求的周期性 变化，库存是一个放大器。 过去几年，高端白酒报表层面的需求与市场终端的需求间存在错配。高端白酒此前特别赚钱，当终端需求出现 波动或者不好的时候，厂家往往会要求经销商帮忙承担一部分压力， ...

把 握 大 贝 塔 比 个 股 微 操 更 重 要 理 英 雄 星 s and 导读：在即将告别2025年之际，我们也开始对各类资产的表现做一个整体回顾。在这个过程中，我们发现黄金年初至今涨幅超60%，在各类资产中 表现突出。事实上，今年COMEX黄金价格涨幅，是1979年以来最高。 （数据来源：Wind，截至日期：2025年12月12日） 在很长一段时间，周期股是被许多人放弃的"渣男行业"。周期股的波动很大，但是需求又随着城镇化见顶进入下行周期，以至于许多投资者都不愿 意做周期股的投资。 中银基金的郭昀松是市场上长期聚焦在周期领域的基金经理之一。 以他管理时间最长的中银稳进策略混合A为例，从2023年11月14日接手管理产 品至今年9月末，组合中始终重仓黄金。到了2024年9月19日，郭昀松又新发了市场上少有的聚焦周期领域的基金：中银周期优选混合发起。基金 定期报告显示，截至2025年9月末，这两只产品均取得了超额收益，中银稳进策略A过去一年净值增长率28.39%（同期业绩比较基准收益率 9.72%），中银周期优选A过去一年净值增长率41.38%（同期业绩比较基准 收益率14.09%）。 （风险提示：前十大 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize, with overseas retail remaining robust and inventory levels in the industry and brand sectors returning to health. A shift in inventory cycles is anticipated, which could lead to either proactive replenishment or passive destocking phases, depending on demand changes [4][7][8] - Domestic retail sales have shown signs of recovery since August, supported by favorable policies such as tariff reductions and measures to boost domestic demand. This trend is expected to continue into next year, increasing the likelihood of a transition to proactive replenishment or passive destocking phases [4][9] - The report suggests focusing on high-elasticity profit recovery stocks in the A-share market, while emphasizing the need for certainty in brand retail, particularly in the Hong Kong market where short-term pressures persist [4][10] Group 2 - The analysis reveals that the textile and apparel industry has slightly underperformed the broader market this year, with the textile manufacturing index rising by 13.3% compared to a 5.3% increase in the brand apparel index as of December 12, 2025 [23][32] - The report highlights that the retail sector has shown steady recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% in retail sales for clothing and textiles in October 2025, although export figures have been weak, reflecting a decline of 9.1% in textile exports [21][23] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the inventory cycle and the potential for significant catalysts in head sports manufacturing orders and stock prices as demand shifts [7][8][9]

中国宏观经济 2026 年年报 中国宏观经济：今朝虽未开盛宴 街头巷尾已 闻钟 ——2025 年中国宏观经济回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 宏观金融与航运团队 李彦森 Z0013871 ➢ 摘要： 2025 年以来经济整体走弱，四个季度 GDP 增速逐步下行，即使排除四季度基数因 素，增量贡献也有所减弱。从需求角度看，消费表现稳定是主要支持，背后以来消费 补贴等政策驱动，本质仍是财政政策的出口。净出口带动力先升后降，整体表现超预 期，且绝对贡献超过投资。投资表现不佳，贡献相对最低。尤其是三季度开始进一步 走弱。其中地产维持长期下行趋势不变，基建投资受到资金端影响，制造业投资与中 美贸易冲突后企业信心变动有关。此外，年内经济运行逻辑出现明显两段变动：上半 年是高实际增速叠加通缩，名义 GDP 表现并不佳；下半年转向通缩修复同时产出减 速，名义 GDP 放缓程度收窄。"反内卷"政策是最主要的影响因素，且其局部性影响 仍将继续体现。我们认为，2026 年库存周期将迎来修复，节奏上看底部或位于二季度， 全年经济将呈现前低后高态势，内生动能有所增强。同时中美贸易紧张关系缓和，逆 全球化趋势放慢后也有利于外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding economic cycles and adapting investment strategies accordingly, focusing on the interplay between risk and return, and the need for a dynamic asset allocation approach to navigate the evolving market landscape [1][2][3]. Group 1: Strategy Implementation - Investment strategies should be clearly planned at the end of each year, balancing proactive measures with responsive tactics to adapt to market changes [1]. - The essence of asset management strategies lies in seeking a dynamic balance among profitability, liquidity, and safety, transforming vague wealth goals into actionable frameworks [3]. Group 2: 2025 Strategy Review - The major shift in asset allocation for 2025 was driven by a change in risk premiums, transitioning from "conflict premium" to "repair premium" due to the stabilization of US-China trade tensions [4]. - AI+ technology is identified as a core driver of structural opportunities across various sectors, enhancing production efficiency and creating a viable industrial dividend chain [5]. - A supportive funding environment characterized by abundant liquidity has facilitated the concentration of capital in high-certainty and high-growth areas, enhancing the returns on quality assets [6]. Group 3: 2026 Asset Allocation Strategy - The risk premium for Chinese assets is expected to continue its downward trend, supported by the stabilization of external conflicts and the resonance of institutional reforms [10]. - The liquidity environment is anticipated to shift from abundance to structural adaptation, with a focus on high-certainty sectors, necessitating a refined asset selection approach [11]. - The correlation between inflation and profitability is expected to highlight the value of yield strategies, making fixed-income assets a key choice for stable returns [12]. - The focus of fiscal policy is projected to shift towards stability and social welfare, emphasizing structural opportunities over total economic growth [13]. - The narrative-driven trading approach is expected to weaken, with a shift towards profitability verification as the primary driver for industry selection [14]. Group 4: Key Conclusions for 2026 - The effective asset allocation strategy for 2026 is rooted in the interplay of declining risk premiums, rising profitability, and structural differentiation [16]. - The focus will be on midstream industries, which are expected to benefit from improved profitability and resilience against demand fluctuations [17]. - The use of tools like ETFs will remain crucial for efficiently capturing structural opportunities in specific sectors [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The report summarizes the Q3 2025 financial performance of overseas sports brands, highlighting sales performance, profitability, and inventory status, indicating a gradual improvement in overall performance [2][4] - Revenue performance among major footwear and apparel companies shows divergence, with some brands experiencing strong growth while others face challenges [5][6] - The outlook for the industry suggests a gradual recovery in demand and inventory replenishment, particularly for brands like Adidas and On, while Nike continues to face headwinds [8][36] Revenue Performance - Revenue growth varied significantly among companies in Q3 2025, with Adidas (+12%), On (+35%), and Amer Sports (+30%) showing strong growth, while Nike and VF both reported a decline of -1% [5][19] - The overall revenue performance in Q3 2025 improved compared to Q2, despite some brands continuing to face pressure [5][6] Guidance - The visibility for the full year has improved, with brands like UA restoring full-year guidance, indicating a positive trend despite expected performance divergence [6][26] - Strong growth trends are expected to continue for On and Amer Sports, while Nike and VF are projected to see declines but with signs of improvement [6][31] Inventory - The industry is entering a phase of inventory replenishment, with moderate recovery in demand observed in the U.S. and Europe, although challenges remain in certain markets [7][36] - U.S. apparel inventory levels are in a destocking phase, with wholesale inventory ratios declining since 2023, while retail inventory levels have stabilized [7][36] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to gradually transition into a replenishment phase, with demand showing signs of recovery, particularly in the U.S. apparel sector [8][36] - Brands like Adidas are actively seeking to replenish inventory for growth, while Nike continues to destock amid ongoing challenges [8][36]

2026 年度策略系列电话会 - 宏观：短期答案在长期 20251203 摘要 预计 2026 年中国经济基本面平稳，波动有限，政策刺激概率较低，风 险管理是重点，房地产特别是房价变化是关键宏观变量。 2026 年海外需求和资本开支预计共振上行，美联储降息空间是关键， 可能通过关税减免平衡通胀与降息。 建议增配与国内经济相关度低、与海外经济相关度高的资产，股票关注 科技成长、产业链重构（装备制造、出海企业、工业资源品）及全球经 济复苏相关板块（化工）。 中国经济面临结构性和周期性问题，房地产调整是直接原因，根本原因 是人口红利消失，需产业升级而非强刺激。 房地产市场可能迎来拐点，投资降幅收敛，但需关注施工强度超预期下 滑的风险，2026 年房地产投资增速或收敛至 7%左右。 企业资本开支意愿下降，资金流向金融市场，A 股流动性充裕，国家队 兜底抬升风险偏好，形成 A 股慢牛共识。 2026 年上半年继续看多 A 股，受益于流动性充裕、科技板块估值调整、 慢牛共识和春季躁动效应，关注科技成长、产业链重构和外需相关板块。 Q&A 对于 2026 年宏观经济的展望，您认为有哪些主要的内外部因素需要关注？ 从长期来看 ...