Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are supported by the cost side but suppressed by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - After macro - events are settled, the trading logic of iron ore returns to fundamentals. With restrained shipments, steel mills' restocking needs, and coking coal price concessions, the downside space of iron ore prices is expected to be limited [20] - As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve. Coke spot still has room for price cuts from a valuation perspective, and attention should be paid to the progress of the steel mills' third - round price cut [29] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are currently weak. Although the futures prices rebounded due to relevant policies, the rebound may stimulate enterprises to hedge and suppress prices [45] - With the strengthening expectation of new capacity production, the over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying. The weakening demand from glass and high inventories restrict the price of soda ash [59] - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may undergo cold - repair, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Currently, high intermediate inventories and off - season demand put pressure on the spot market [82] Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3120, 3119, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3276, 3269, and 3282 yuan/ton respectively [4] - The month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different changes compared to the previous day [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions had minor changes on December 19, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China was 3325 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [8][10] - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed slightly [8][10] - **Other Ratios** - The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore were all 4; the ratios of rebar to coke were all 2 on December 19, 2025 [17] Iron Ore - **Price Data** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 798, 780, and 758 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 1, 2.5, and 3 yuan/ton respectively [21] - The basis of different contracts showed a downward trend [21] - **Fundamental Data** - The daily average pig iron output was 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81.21 tons [24] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios** - On December 19, 2025, the spreads of coking coal and coke contracts showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 195 yuan/ton [32] - The coking profit, mine - coke ratio, etc. also changed [32] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes. The immediate coking profit was 24 yuan/ton [35] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron** - On December 19, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 90 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 48 yuan/ton; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5300 yuan/ton [46] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 82 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 28 yuan/ton; the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5500 yuan/ton [47] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1120, 1176, and 1236 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 17, 17, and 14 yuan/ton respectively [60] - The month - spreads also changed [60] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable. The basis of soda ash in different regions showed a downward trend [60] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of glass 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 941, 1041, and 1138 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 12, 21, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [83] - The month - spreads and basis of glass contracts changed [83] - **Sales and Production Data** - The sales - to - production ratios of glass in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, etc. showed different trends in December 2025 [84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For glass in 2026, it is expected that both supply and demand will decline. The demand decline rate is expected to narrow, and the industry profit pressure caused by the real - estate chain's capital problem remains to be resolved. Attention should be paid to the valuation elasticity brought by the supply side, and the cost line supports the price. The FG05 contract valuation refers to [1000, 1280] and is adjusted dynamically according to the cost [5][64]. - For soda ash in 2026, it is expected that supply will decrease and demand will increase, and the fundamentals will be marginally repaired. However, the digestion of the high - inventory contradiction still faces challenges. The differentiation between light and heavy soda ash may continue, and the price may be under pressure throughout the year, with a possible phased improvement during the maintenance season [6][121]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Glass 2026 Annual Report 3.1.1 Glass 2025 Review: Industry Clearance Game under Weak Demand - In 2025, weak demand was the fundamental contradiction in the glass industry. The over - supply pattern and high upstream and mid - stream inventory pressures led to the spot price fluctuating around the cost. Throughout the year, the price showed a downward - rebound - downward trend, and the inventory transfer from upstream to mid - stream was an important driver for the price increase [14][15]. 3.1.2 Glass 2026 Outlook - **Demand**: The decline in glass demand in 2026 is expected to narrow. Real - estate demand will continue to decline but at a slower pace. The growth rate of the automobile industry will slow down, and the output of home appliances may decline year - on - year. It is expected that the apparent demand for glass in 2026 will decline by 5% [21][26]. - **Supply**: The glass supply is expected to decline first and then increase in 2026. The overall supply is expected to be around 5515 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 4.5%. The industry may experience further clearance in the short term due to weak demand and high inventory, and the cost may rise in the long term due to energy transformation policies [54][60]. 3.1.3 Glass Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In 2026, both supply and demand of float glass are expected to decline. More attention should be paid to the valuation elasticity brought by the supply side. The absolute price floor is around 950 yuan/ton, fluctuating with the cost. The FG05 contract valuation refers to [1000, 1280] and is adjusted according to the cost [64]. 3.2 Soda Ash 2026 Report 3.2.1 Soda Ash 2025 Price Review: The Decline of the Soda Ash Price Center Gradually Slowed - In the first half of 2025, the soda ash price declined due to over - supply and falling raw material costs. In the second half, the industry moved from over - supply to a wide - balance state, and the price stopped falling and rebounded. The inventory of the soda ash industry first increased and then decreased [72]. 3.2.2 Soda Ash 2026 Outlook - **Supply**: The soda ash industry is still in the capacity expansion cycle in 2026, but the production increase rhythm slows down. New production capacity at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 will increase the supply pressure, and the industry may continue to clear capacity. The valuation is expected to be repaired by supply - side adjustment, and the upper limit of the valuation should be concerned about the resumption of marginal production capacity [99][101]. - **Light Soda Ash Demand**: In 2025, the demand for light soda ash was strong. In 2026, it is expected that the traditional downstream will maintain a growth rate of 4.5 - 5.0%, and the demand from lithium carbonate and exports will continue to increase. The weekly average apparent demand for light soda ash is expected to be around 34 - 34.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 7% [106]. - **Heavy Soda Ash Demand**: In 2025, the supply and demand of photovoltaic glass both declined. In 2026, the global new photovoltaic installation growth rate is expected to slow down, and the rigid demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to fluctuate between 8.5 - 9.3 tons per day, and the annual production is expected to decline by about 1% to 3228 tons, corresponding to a rigid demand of 581 tons for heavy soda ash [111][113]. - **Import and Export**: In 2025, China's soda ash exports increased significantly, and imports decreased sharply. In 2026, it is expected that the large - scale export and closed import window pattern will continue, and the annual net export volume is expected to be between 240 - 260 tons [117][118]. 3.2.3 Soda Ash Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In 2026, the supply of soda ash is expected to decrease and demand to increase, and the fundamentals will be marginally repaired. However, the high - inventory problem still needs to be resolved. The price may be under pressure throughout the year, with a possible phased improvement during the maintenance season. The spot price of soda ash may continue to be in the industry cost range, and attention should be paid to the lower and upper limits of the valuation and the seasonal supply decline during the maintenance season [121].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For steel, cost support strengthens, but the independent driving force for finished products is weak. The supply - demand structure is weak, and short - term long positions can be considered from a valuation perspective with stop - loss set [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, energy - related policies boost prices in the short term, but there is a medium - term supply surplus, and it is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon and short on silicomanganese [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the futures market rebounds rapidly. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and industrial customers can consider purchasing cost - effective spot [3]. - For iron ore, iron water production is falling, and prices are under pressure. However, prices may decline more slowly after the expected iron water stabilization and subsequent restocking [3]. Summary by Related Content Futures Market - On December 18, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2610, HC2610, J2605, and JM2609 were 3151.00 yuan/ton, 3288.00 yuan/ton, 1743.00 yuan/ton, and 1200.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1.25%, 0.98%, 4.75%, and 5.68% [1]. - The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, J2601, and JM2605 were 3125.00 yuan/ton, 3277.00 yuan/ton, 1603.50 yuan/ton, and 1126.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1.40%, 1.05%, 5.39%, and 6.07% [1]. - The cross - month spreads of RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, J2601 - 2605, and JM2605 - 2609 were - 26.00 yuan/ton, - 11.00 yuan/ton, - 139.50 yuan/ton, and - 73.50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spread/ratio/profit indicators such as coil - to - rebar spread, rebar - to - ore ratio, coal - to - coke ratio, rebar paper profit, and coking paper profit on December 18 were 152.00, 4.02, 1.42, - 17.38, and 105.26 respectively [1]. Spot Market - On December 18, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, and Tangshan billet were 3320.00 yuan/ton, 3190.00 yuan/ton, 3520.00 yuan/ton, and 2950.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 30.00 yuan/ton, 20.00 yuan/ton, 40.00 yuan/ton, and 10.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3300.00 yuan/ton, 3300.00 yuan/ton, and 3290.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 20.00 yuan/ton, 30.00 yuan/ton, and 10.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot prices of Qingdao Port super - special powder, Ganqimao coal, and Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke were 678.00 yuan/ton, 1120.00 yuan/ton, and 1530.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 9.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, and - 50.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The basis values of HC, RB, J, and JM on December 18 were 23.00 yuan/ton, 195.00 yuan/ton, 76.66 yuan/ton, and 23.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of - 12.00 yuan/ton, - 11.00 yuan/ton, - 126.76 yuan/ton, and - 64.50 yuan/ton [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - PX has a supply gap due to high polyester operation rates, and its profit hits a new high. The market is bullish, and PXN reaches a new peak [8]. - PTA's valuation continues to rise due to tight PX supply - demand on the cost side and high polyester operation rates. It is recommended to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range and exit the 5 - 9 calendar spread [8]. - MEG is in a range - bound market as the increase in supply cannot change the future inventory build - up pattern [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On December 18, 2025, the PX price rises. The PX - naphtha price spread reaches a new high in 2025. Higher margins may incentivize producers to increase output, but most Asian producers are cautious in the short term [3][5]. - PTA: Some PTA producers outside China are struggling to secure 2026 regular contracts. In mainland China, an Ineos 1.25 - million - ton PTA unit reduces operation and may shut down, with the PTA load at 73.2% as of Thursday [6]. - MEG: As of December 18, the overall ethylene glycol operation rate in mainland China rises to 71.97%, and the operation rate of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method increases to 75.46% [6]. - Polyester: A filament unit of Sanfangxiang experiences a minor issue during the feeding process, delaying production. The domestic polyester load in mainland China remains around 91.2% as of Thursday [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 1, indicating a neutral view [8]. Price and Margin Data - **Futures**: PX, PTA, PF, and SC futures prices rise, with PTA having the highest daily increase rate of 1.37%. MEG futures rise slightly by 0.24% [2]. - **Spot**: PX, PTA, and naphtha spot prices rise, while MEG spot price falls. The PX - naphtha spread is 282.92 dollars/ton [2]. - **Processing Margin**: The PX - naphtha spread increases by 1.5 dollars/ton, while PTA and short - fiber processing margins decrease [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Market is in a short - term long - short stalemate. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,000 - 15,500. Supply - side support exists due to geopolitical tensions in Thailand and domestic产区停割, while demand - side growth is restricted by slow tire sales and low profits in some sectors [1]. Polyolefins - Both polyethylene and polypropylene face a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating higher. The port market may be weak in the near term due to Iranian supply, while the inland market has increasing supply and demand. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after reduced shipments [6][8]. LPG No specific overall view is provided other than presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have limited downside. The BZ2603 may oscillate between 5,300 - 5,600. Styrene has limited driving force and is expected to be weak in the short - term [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Rolling low - buying operations are recommended. - PTA: TA rolling low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are suggested. - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and selling EG2605 - C - 4100 is advisable to obtain time value. - Short - fiber: It follows raw material fluctuations, and the disk processing fee can be shorted when it is high. - Polyester Bottle Chips: Selling PR2602 - P - 5500 is recommended, and the main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [15]. Crude Oil - The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Brent crude should be monitored at the $60/barrel level. Attention should be paid to US - Russia talks, Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the US - Venezuela situation [16]. Urea - The 2605 contract's main logic is the support of spring plowing fertilizer demand under high - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize at 1,700 and the spirit of the urea meeting [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and the price outlook is not optimistic. Short - term observation and shorting on rebounds are recommended [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is bearish, and short - selling opportunities after rebounds should be noted. - Glass: The market has pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December, while the 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 15,050 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 20.59%. Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 16.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 66.67% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 0.29%, Indonesia's by 1.53%, and China's by a certain amount. November domestic tire production increased by 3.96%, and exports increased by 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory increased by 2.08%, and上期所factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 3.87% [1]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: L2601 and L2605 decreased slightly, PP2601 increased by 0.10%, and PP2605 decreased by 0.40%. Some spot prices changed slightly [4]. - **Spreads**: L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed to different extents [4]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 1.28%, and some PP开工率 and inventory indicators changed [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86%, while port inventory decreased by 1.26% [7]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators increased or decreased [8]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory increased [12]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators changed [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: Some prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene changed [14]. - **Inventory**: Benzene and styrene port inventories changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some开工率 indicators of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Crude oil, PX, and polyester product prices changed to different extents [15]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads, PTA - related spreads, and MEG - related spreads changed [15]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 indicators and MEG port inventory changed [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, and some spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Some refined oil prices and spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Some refined oil crack spreads changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and some spot prices changed [18]. - **Spreads and Positions**: Some spreads and positions changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and订单天数 changed [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Some prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Some overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**:开工率, demand - side开工率, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass and Soda Ash Prices**: Some prices of glass and soda ash changed [20]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率, production, and inventory, as well as glass inventory and some related data changed [20]. - **Real Estate Data**: Some real - estate data changed [20].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-19 冬储预期配合供给扰动，盘⾯延续反弹 淡季供需双弱，其中螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基 本⾯难⾔亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本⽀撑，盘⾯低位反弹。同时 冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿盘⾯表现较强，供给扰动⽀撑煤焦估值修复 反弹。玻纯盘⾯价格低位震荡，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅空间。 淡季供需双弱，其中螺纹钢基本面仍有韧性，热卷库存压力仍存，基 本面难言亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本支撑，盘面低位反弹。同时 冬储补库预期支撑下铁矿盘面表现较强，供给扰动支撑煤焦估值修复 反弹。玻纯盘面价格低位震荡，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水继续下滑，刚需支撑减弱，港口库存累积，钢 厂补库需求仍未明显释放，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供减需稳， 钢厂库存偏高，补库放缓，但电炉利润尚可，长、短流程钢企废钢需 求仍有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭现货短期虽仍有一轮补跌预期，但随着焦钢企 业原料冬储补库，成本端有望企稳，对现货价格提供支撑，盘面估值 仍有修复空间，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the soda ash main contract rose by 2.14% to 1193.00 CNY/ton, driven by optimistic market sentiment due to multiple ministries promoting "anti-involution" [1] - On the supply side, soda ash production has slightly increased, but long-term supply pressure remains significant due to new capacity coming online. Current prices are low, and with rising costs, it is expected that soda plants will have a strong willingness to undergo maintenance, potentially leading to a decline in production [1] - On the demand side, the production of photovoltaic glass remained stable month-on-month, while float glass production decreased, leading to expectations of increased cold repairs for float glass and pressure on soda ash demand [1] Group 2 - Overall, there is an expectation of weakening demand for heavy soda ash, while light soda ash demand remains relatively stable. Downstream replenishment has led to a continuous decline in soda plant inventories, and with upcoming maintenance, supply may decrease, alleviating short-term inventory pressure [1] - The current focus should be on cost support, as the price of thermal coal is weakening under supply assurance, which is expected to lower soda ash costs, suggesting a volatile outlook [1] - According to Everbright Futures, the spot market prices are mostly stable, with the price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe region at 1137 CNY/ton, down 6 CNY/ton day-on-day. The supply level of soda ash remains stable at a low level, with an industry operating rate of 82.05% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market continues to show a strong trend, with the main contract reaching 1192.00 CNY/ton, a significant increase of 2.05% [1] Industry Summary - As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.4993 million tons, an increase of 0.005 million tons from the previous week, reflecting a growth rate of 0.33% [2] - The total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises is 1.386 million tons (including some external warehouse inventories), which is an increase of 0.012 million tons from December 11, with a growth rate of 0.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%. Among this, the heavy soda ash inventory is 644,000 tons, which has decreased by 0.002 million tons, a decline of 0.3% [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Jianxin Futures, the soda ash market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure that is difficult to resolve quickly. Although cost support is gradually emerging, the driving force remains limited. Without significant changes in the supply-demand structure, prices are expected to continue fluctuating at low levels, with a cautious approach recommended towards rebound trends [4] - According to Wukuang Futures, as enterprises resume production and new capacity in the Alashan region is expected to be released, market supply pressure is gradually becoming apparent. Downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, with procurement mainly focused on just-in-time inventory replenishment, leading to low stocking willingness. Additionally, increased cold repairs in glass production lines further suppress demand for soda ash. In the short term, without significant positive stimuli, soda ash prices are expected to remain under pressure [4]

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 南美地缘升温，油价短线反弹。地缘：俄乌冲突继续缓和，南美地缘不确 | | | | 定性上升，美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油 | | ★ | | 激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注 | | | | 变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价短线反弹，中长期承压。成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势 | | LPG | | 仍向下；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 70%左右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利空，港口与厂内库存环比上 | | | 升。 | | | | | 期现共振下跌，LP 价差大幅收缩。停车比例小幅提升至 14%，LL 加权毛 | | L | | 利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期检修难度 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply and demand sides of the polyolefin market are under continuous pressure, and the price rebound lacks momentum. For PE, the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weakening, leading to large inventory pressure and limited short - term improvement. For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, demand is weak, and short - term rebound drivers are limited. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6479 yuan/ton (-64), and the PP main contract is 6254 yuan/ton (-2). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes. [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 is 84.1% (+0.1%), and PP开工率 is 78.3% (+0.7%). [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 358.7 yuan/ton (+127.6), PP oil - based production profit is - 261.3 yuan/ton (+127.6), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 714.1 yuan/ton (+60.0). [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 100.0 yuan/ton (+5.1), PP import profit is - 268.1 yuan/ton (+4.9), and PP export profit is - 12.1 US dollars/ton (-0.6). [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film and packaging film开工率 decline, while PP downstream BOPP film开工率 increases slightly and plastic weaving开工率 remains unchanged. [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply is expected to increase due to low maintenance and new device production. Demand is weakening as downstream开工率 drops. Inventory pressure is large, and cost support is weakening. [2] - **PP**: Supply is expected to remain high with less maintenance. Demand is limited, and inventory levels are high. Cost support is weakening, and short - term rebound drivers are limited. [3] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term. - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided. - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 when it is high. [4]