投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 板块逻辑： 低库存正基差，能化延续震荡 化工整体延续震荡格局，盘内杀跌后又快速拉升，我国财新PMI指数 亦或是一些装置开停车消息成了短线交易的契机。聚酯原料基差周二全线 回落，一大型瓶片装置计划7月停车，占瓶片总产能比例接近6%，占我国 聚酯产能比例1.4%，市场担忧需求端会继续走弱。考虑到TA、EG和PX经过 过去几个月的去库，当前的低库存格局下继续杀跌有一定风险。 原油：中东6月出口大增，市场等待周末OPEC+会议决议 LPG：盘面回归交易基本面宽松，PG盘面或弱势震荡 沥青：沥青期价震荡，等待利空发酵 高硫燃油：高硫燃油利空仍待发酵 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油下跌 甲醇：港口大幅走弱，甲醇震荡 尿素：国内供强需弱格局难改，依赖出口拉动，尿素短期或弱势震荡 乙二醇：低库存延续震荡整理态势 PX：原油暂稳，PX震荡偏强 PTA：供需转弱、成本端PX较强，PTA震荡 短纤：短纤加工费有支撑，基差企稳，绝对值跟随原料波动 瓶片：检修逐步开启，瓶片加工费见底 PP：检修提升有限，短期PP震荡 塑料：检修支撑有限，塑料震荡 苯乙烯：驱动真空期，苯乙烯窄幅震荡 PV ...

原油近期波动较大，欧线宏观属性较强，近期博弈难度较高，部分船 IV 司宣涨运价，关注挺价落地情况。特朗普政府并不打算延长关税谈判 期，目前现货市场价格区间已定，有小幅降价试探市场，无更多利好 出现的情况下,盘面易跌难涨。综上述,我们认为,在地缘冲突下, 博弈难度较大，建议轻仓参与或观望。 7月1日主力合约2508收盘1904.9, 涨幅为7.80%, 成交量6.88万 手,持仓量4.05万手,较上日增手1248手。 SCFIS持续上行，但整体供需无较大变化,午后或因资金进出较大, 盘面快速拉涨。之后需对谈判结果、关税政策、中东局势以及现货运 价情况关注。 短期策略：基本面无明显转向情况下建议逢高试空，已建议2508合约 反弹至2000以上建议轻仓试空（200点以上的利润空间）,空单可考 虑止盈,风险偏好者已建议2510合约1300以下轻仓试多,设置好止损 止盈。 套利策略：国际局势动荡背景下，波动较大，暂时以观望为主。 长期策略: 各合约已建议冲高止盈,等待回调企稳后,在判断后续方向 跌涨停板：2506-2604合约调整为16%。 我司保证金:2506-2604合约调整为26%。 日内开仓限制: 2506-2 ...

文︱陆弃 近日，德国企业破产潮不断升级，已达到十年来最高水平，数据显示，2025年上半年共有约1.19万家企 业宣告破产，涉及员工14.1万人。这组令人震惊的数字不仅揭示了德国经济正在经历的严重衰退，更暴 露出其深层次的结构性危机和对外依赖的脆弱性。而这一切背后，美欧之间复杂且充满不确定性的贸易 博弈，正如烈焰一般，烧穿了这个"欧洲经济引擎"的肌理。 德国经济曾被誉为欧洲的支柱，制造业和出口导向型经济模式长期支撑着其稳定增长。然而，这个曾经 的经济奇迹如今却陷入了沉重的困境。数据显示，企业破产率比去年同期激增9.4%，而这背后的根 源，绝非偶然。需求疲软、成本上升、全球贸易不确定性叠加，成为压垮这座经济大厦的最后一根稻 草。尤其是美国对德国商品出口的潜在关税威胁，更是给德国出口商蒙上了巨大的阴影，使得本就脆弱 的德国经济雪上加霜。 德国国内生产总值第一季度虽然小幅增长0.2%，但这并不能掩盖经济深层次的病症。作为德国最大的 贸易伙伴，美国与欧盟之间悬而未决的贸易谈判，充满了不确定性和对抗色彩。慕尼黑经济研究所指 出，关税威胁的阴云仍笼罩在谈判桌上，出口商的信心指数从5月的-5.0继续下滑至-7.4，明显表现出 ...

分析师们指出，在2025年前六个月，黄金价格上涨了近25%。"近期的价格上涨是由在政策高度不确定 和地缘政治紧张局势加剧的情况下强劲的需求所驱动。2025年第一季度，黄金交易所交易基金（ETF） 的资金流入急剧回升，将投资需求推至2022年以来的最高水平。央行的购买继续提供支撑，反映了其储 备管理策略。" 作者们写道，预计近期强劲的需求将持续，受全球不确定性和地缘政治风险高企的支撑，"预计2025年 黄金价格将上涨约35%（同比），然后在2026年温和回落，因为一些普遍存在的不确定性开始减 退，"他们说。"尽管如此，预计到2025-26年，黄金价格仍将远高于历史常规水平——比2015-19年的平 均水平高出约150%。前景风险偏向上行，地缘政治发展预计仍将是不确定性的主要来源。" 白银也保持了其2024年的强劲势头，在2025年上半年上涨了近20%。"尽管白银价格涨幅强劲，但金银 比在2025年初进一步攀升，高于其10年平均水平，延续了其稳步上升的趋势，"他们指出。"这部分反映 了在不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势加剧的情况下，黄金作为避险资产的相对需求更强。" 展望未来，世界银行预计白银需求将保持强劲，这得益于这 ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 美国股市在2025年上半年的走势犹如坐上过山车，在创下历史新高后，多重不确定性因素 正为下半年行情蒙上阴影。 纽约时间7月1日，美国股市在2025年上半年的走势犹如坐上过山车，在创下历史新高后，多重不确 定性因素正为下半年行情蒙上阴影。尽管标普500指数年内仍维持5%以上的涨幅，但4月因特朗普政 府"关税风暴"引发的市场恐慌至今令人心有余悸。当前投资者正屏息关注六大关键变量，这些因素 或将决定美股能否守住当前高位。 关税会产生影响吗?还是只会起到震慑作用? 首当其冲的仍是关税政策走向。虽然市场对最极端情景的担忧有所缓解，但7月9日这个关键时间节 点正步步逼近，美国与多国的贸易谈判结果可能引发新一轮市场波动。高盛最新测算显示，即便部 分严苛关税措施被取消，已落地的政策仍推动美国实际关税税率从年初3%攀升至13%，这或将持续 推高通胀压力并侵蚀企业利润。即将于本月下旬披露的二季度财报将成为重要试金石，数据显示， 标普500成分股盈利预计增长5.9%，投资者将密切关注企业如何消化关税成本。 美联储何时降息? 美联储政策路径同样牵动市场神经。鲍威尔近期明确将关税引发的通胀风险列为延缓降息的重要考 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a critical adjustment phase, influenced by mixed macroeconomic factors and technical indicators, leading to potential short-term volatility and risks of price corrections [1][10]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - There is a divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, with the market anticipating at least one rate cut this year, but the timing and extent remain uncertain. Key upcoming data, such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, will be crucial in determining gold price movements [2]. - Geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China trade relations, continue to pose uncertainties that may support gold prices despite a reduction in market hedging behavior [3]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China, Turkey, and India, are still increasing their gold reserves, providing medium to long-term support for gold prices, although the pace of purchases has shown signs of slowing [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical charts indicate short-term support levels at $2280 and $2255, with resistance levels at $2340 and $2365. The MACD on the daily chart has formed a bearish crossover, and the RSI has retreated to neutral territory, suggesting weakened momentum [5]. - A head-and-shoulders pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart, indicating that a drop below $2280 could lead to further testing of the $2250-$2230 range. Additionally, CFTC data shows a reduction in net long positions by hedge funds, reflecting cautious sentiment among institutions [5]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The short-term outlook is bearish with expectations of a corrective phase, likely maintaining a trading range between $2255 and $2340. Short-term traders are advised to adopt a buy-low, sell-high strategy while awaiting a clearer directional breakout [6]. - The medium-term view suggests positioning for potential gains on dips, especially if upcoming non-farm and inflation data disappoint, which could weaken the dollar and boost gold prices. A sustained move above $2300 and a breakout past $2345 could lead to targets of $2385-$2400 [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to break through 1200 yuan per gram in the second half of the year, analyzing key factors and predictions for the market [1][18]. Current Price and Target Gap - As of July 2025, domestic gold jewelry prices range from 1000 to 1010 yuan per gram, with brands like Chow Sang Sang at 1000 yuan and Chow Tai Fook at 998 yuan [1]. - The current international gold price is 3320 USD per ounce (approximately 760 yuan per gram), indicating that a target price of 1200 yuan per gram requires a 20% increase, necessitating the international price to exceed 4500 USD per ounce [3]. Historical Comparison - The peak price for gold jewelry in April 2025 was 1082 yuan per gram (with international gold at 3500 USD per ounce) [3]. - To reach 1200 yuan, gold prices must surpass the historical peak by 11%, which is significantly higher than current market momentum [3]. Supporting Factors for Price Increase - A continued depreciation of the US dollar could stimulate short-term gold price increases if the dollar index falls below 90 (currently at 99.7) [3]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (potentially 100 basis points this year) could also support gold prices, although the implementation of such policies remains uncertain [3]. - Escalating geopolitical conflicts, such as renewed violence in the Middle East and increased trade tensions with the US, may drive demand for gold as a safe haven [4]. Central Bank Purchases - In 2024, global central banks purchased a net total of 1045 tons of gold, and if this trend continues at a rate of 1000 tons annually, it could provide long-term support for gold prices [5]. Core Constraints - The premium pressure on gold jewelry is significant, with processing fees exceeding 200 yuan per gram. If international prices do not rise, retail prices may struggle to surpass 1100 yuan [6]. - A strong technical resistance level exists at 3400 USD per ounce, and breaking through this requires robust fundamental support [7]. - Consumer sentiment is currently low, with many potential buyers waiting for prices to drop to around 600-700 yuan per gram [7]. Institutional Perspectives - There are differing views among institutions regarding gold price forecasts: - Bullish outlooks from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict prices reaching 3700 USD (approximately 1120 yuan) by year-end and potentially challenging 4000 USD (around 1200 yuan) by 2026 [9]. - Bearish views from CITIC Securities and Citigroup suggest that if risk appetite declines and the dollar strengthens, prices could fall to 2500-2700 USD (approximately 600-650 yuan) [9]. - Neutral perspectives from Nanhua Futures expect prices to remain in the 1000-1100 yuan range with increased volatility but unlikely to break previous highs [9]. Conclusion - The likelihood of gold prices breaking 1200 yuan per gram in the near term is low, with a more probable scenario being a range of 1000-1100 yuan per gram through 2025, with the target of 1200 yuan potentially delayed until 2026 [10].

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to show strong fluctuations, with trading volume reaching 1.46 trillion, remaining stable compared to the previous day [1] - Institutional net inflow was 17.8 billion, while both main and retail investors collectively withdrew nearly 40 billion, indicating a typical market behavior of alternating between consolidation and upward movement [1] - The index is operating within a healthy range, approaching the previous high of 3462 points, with a potential breakthrough to the next target of 3500 points [1] Sector Analysis - The leading sectors this year are pharmaceuticals, military industry, and semiconductors, which are expected to remain active in the coming months due to strong mid-to-long-term support [2] - The pharmaceutical sector is driven by domestic substitution, policy support, and international expansion, with recent policies from the National Health Commission promoting the development of innovative drugs and their inclusion in insurance [2] - The military sector benefits from expectations surrounding military parades and ongoing geopolitical tensions, while the semiconductor sector is supported by significant investments from the National Fund into critical areas and recent breakthroughs in optical technology [2] - Overall, the pharmaceutical, military, and semiconductor sectors are identified as the most promising investment opportunities as long as the upward trend remains intact [2]

金十数据7月1日讯，沙特阿拉伯正以一年多来最快的速度出口原油，作为欧佩克+的领导者，该国持续推进其夺回全球 石油市场份额的战略。据机构汇编的油轮跟踪初步数据显示，沙特6月原油出口量增加44.1万桶/日，达到636万桶/日， 增幅约7%。此次出口激增恰逢欧佩克+加速恢复石油生产计划，为消费者带来利好。数据显示，尽管以色列与伊朗冲突 导致地区航运受到电子干扰等影响，但波斯湾及其关键咽喉要道霍尔木兹海峡的原油运输仍保持畅通。这一动向或暗示 未来趋势：在沙特国内空调需求旺季通常抑制原油出口的时期，其实际出口增速已超越欧佩克+协议预期。随着该联盟 考虑进一步增产，该国可能在夏季过后释放更大比例的供应量。 ·美国总统特朗普：将会填满战略石油储备。当市场条件合适时，将会对战略石油储备进行填充。 ·墨西哥石油产量跌至1970年代末水平 金十数据7月2日讯，墨西哥石油产量正急剧下降至1970年代末的水平，这对美国炼油商构成威胁，尤其是在在夏季驾 驶季节期间最需要墨西哥石油的时刻。产量下降加上墨西哥最大炼油厂Dos Bocas的扩建，减少了对海外市场的石油供 应。据外媒汇编的航运报告和船只动向，墨西哥6月出口量骤降至52.9万桶 ...

铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货80160，基差-480，贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：7月1日铜库存增650至91250吨，上期所铜库存较上周减19264吨至81550吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运行为 主. 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 ...