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《能源化工》日报-20250619
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polyolefin industry, oil price surges suppress the cost - end, profits are compressed to the lowest level of the year, and inventories are differentiated. PE is recommended for positive spreads, while PP is recommended for short - positions in the medium - term [21]. - In the methanol industry, due to geopolitical conflicts, the market has a strong long - position sentiment. Short - term strategies are recommended for positive spreads, and it is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics [30]. - In the PVC and caustic soda industry, caustic soda supply still exerts pressure, demand is weak, and there are inventory risks. PVC has short - term price increases but long - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take short - positions in the medium - term [32][35]. - In the urea industry, the short - term futures market is affected by rising Middle - East FOB prices and domestic factory export orders. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with a bullish bias [38]. - In the styrene industry, short - term geopolitical factors drive prices up, but there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - position opportunities in the medium - term [43]. - In the polyester industry, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have different supply - demand situations. Strategies vary from short - term strength to long - term supply - demand balance adjustments [47]. - In the crude oil industry, geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is likely to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see on the spot side and capture volatility - narrowing opportunities on the options side [52]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices all increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases ranging from 1.25% to 1.38% [21]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83%, and social inventory decreased by 4.56%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 4.52%, and trader inventory increased by 5.31% [21]. - **Operation Rate**: PE device operation rate increased by 2.27%, and downstream weighted operation rate decreased by 1.00%. PP device operation rate increased by 2.1%, and powder operation rate decreased by 1.3% [21]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases of 1.83% and 2.53% respectively. Port prices increased significantly [30]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10%, port inventory decreased by 10.09%, and social inventory decreased by 7.52% [30]. - **Operation Rate**: Upstream domestic enterprise operation rate increased by 0.83%, and downstream external - procurement MTO device operation rate increased by 0.85% [30]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Caustic soda export profit increased significantly, while PVC export profit decreased [32]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operation rate decreased by 2.6%, and PVC total operation rate data was unavailable. PVC external - procurement calcium carbide method profit increased by 5.5% [33]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operation rate increased by 2.0%, and PVC downstream product operation rates generally decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda had inventory differentiation, with East China de - stocking and Shandong stocking. PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4%, and total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [35]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: Urea futures prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Spot prices in different regions also had slight fluctuations [38]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.00%, and production factory operation rate increased by 1.00% [38]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49%, and port inventory remained unchanged [38]. Styrene Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene all increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [40]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene East China spot price and futures prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [41]. - **Operation Rate and Inventory**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operation rate increased by 2.9%, styrene operation rate increased by 2.1%. Port inventories of pure benzene and styrene decreased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips increased on June 18 compared to June 17. PX, PTA, and MEG prices also had different changes [47]. - **Operation Rate**: Asian and Chinese PX operation rates, PTA operation rate, and MEG comprehensive operation rate had different changes [47]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory decreased, and PTA and MEG inventories had different trends [47]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different changes on June 19 compared to June 18. Product oil prices and cracking spreads also had fluctuations [52]. - **Inventory**: EIA data showed that last week's US crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased, far exceeding market expectations [52]. - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term [52].
中辉期货能化观点-20250618
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 05:02
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高,油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治,伊以冲突走向主导油价,短期市场较为担忧战火扩大,极端情况下, | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略:双买期权策略。SC【545-575】 | | LPG | | 近期市场不确定性上升,波动加剧,油价震荡偏强,液化气短线偏强。成 | | | 偏强 | 本端油价受地缘冲击,短线走强;下游化工需求有所回升,PDH、MTBE | | | | 开工率上升;库存端利好,厂库和港口库存均下降。策略:波动加剧,双 | | | | 买期权。PG【4450-4550】 | | | | 社会库存去化,期现齐涨,华北基差为-7(环比+41)。2024 年 PE 自中东 进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%,后续相关进口存缩量预期。 | | L | 空头反弹 | | | | | 本周检修力度超预期,预计产量下降。近期市场情绪好转,下游阶段性逢 | | | | 低补库,关注后续库存去化力度。策略:检修叠加成 ...
今日早评-20250618
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 01:54
今 日 早 评 重点品种: 【短评-原油】IEA报告显示,石油需求将于2029年达到 1.056亿桶/日的峰值,2030年小幅回落。与此同时,全球产能 预计到2030年将增加超500万桶/日,达1.147亿桶/日。预计 2025年全球石油供应将增加180万桶/日,将2025年平均石油需 求增长预期下调至72万桶/日,将2026年平均石油需求增长预期 下调至74万桶/日;API数据:当周API原油库存大幅下降1013.3 万桶;据央视报道,当地时间6月17日,乌克兰基辅军政管理局 负责人特卡琴科表示,当日凌晨俄罗斯对基辅及周边地区发动 了大规模袭击,此次袭击击中了居民楼,造成严重损失;据新 华社报道,欧盟委员会6月17日提出一项立法提案,欧盟将在 2027年年底前逐步停止进口俄罗斯的天然气和石油;据伊朗国 家通讯社报道,革命卫队周二宣布向以色列发射"更强大"的 新一轮导弹,一名高级军官称无人机群即将来袭。评:IEA月报 预测年度供应宽松。市场注意力集中在了中东地缘层面,目前 紧张局势仍未得到缓和。短期短多思路。 【短评-PTA】PXCFR当前报866美元/吨,PX-N242美元/吨; 华东PTA报4980元/吨 ...
《能源化工》日报-20250618
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 01:08
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol - The short - term inventory accumulation trend continues. Import and domestic logistics jointly drive a significant increase in port inventory. Although downstream operations are at a high level, profit contraction intensifies the pressure of hidden inventory. If Iranian supply is interrupted due to geopolitical conflicts, it may relieve the supply - demand contradiction at ports. Short - term strategy is to wait and see, while long - term Iranian shutdown may boost sentiment [2]. Crude Oil - Overnight crude oil prices rose, mainly driven by geopolitical uncertainties. The potential supply interruption risk has pushed up the risk premium, supporting high oil prices. The US industry data shows a sharp drop in crude oil inventory last week. Geopolitical tensions extend the market uncertainty period, supporting oil prices above the pre - conflict level. Short - term, a bullish approach is recommended [20]. Urea - The domestic urea market remains in a loose supply pattern. The key marginal change is the relaxation of export policies, which opens an international channel for excess production capacity. Short - term trading logic should focus on multiple factors such as the operation status of Iranian urea export ports and international buyer inquiries [28]. Styrene - The pure benzene market price continues to decline from a high level. On the styrene side, supply increases as some petrochemical plants restart. Downstream 3S profits improve and replenishment is fair, leading to a slight decline in port inventory. In the short - term, it fluctuates sharply, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the marginal pressure on supply - demand after the restart of styrene plants [34]. Caustic Soda - Recently, the operation of caustic soda has declined, but cost reduction leads to partial resumption of production, which has limited impact. Demand from the alumina end is weakening, and non - aluminum demand is sluggish. There is short - term supply - demand pressure in inventory, and further capacity pressure risk may occur after the return of maintenance devices [38]. PVC - In the short - term, PVC shows a volatile operation. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the decline in the domestic real estate sector. The supply side is expected to face greater pressure in the future. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling approach [38]. Polyester Industry Chain - Oil prices are under pressure to rise further due to weak supply - demand expectations. PX is expected to be strong in the short - term. PTA is also expected to be supported in the short - term. Ethylene glycol is expected to be strong in the short - term. Short - fiber has weak supply - demand but strong price support. Bottle - chip supply - demand is expected to improve, and processing fees may rebound [42]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased by 0.37%. The Taicang basis increased by 25.51%. Regional spreads such as Taicang - Inner Mongolia and Taicang - Luoyang also changed [2]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 2.33%, port inventory by 12.22%, and social inventory by 8.37% [2]. - **Operation Rate**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operation rates increased, and some downstream operation rates such as acetic acid and MTBE also increased [2]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased, while EFS increased [20]. - **Market Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties, especially the conflict between Iran and Israel, drive up oil prices. US industry data shows a sharp drop in crude oil inventory [20]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: Futures contract prices and spreads changed. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase [23][24][27]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days data changed. The export policy was relaxed [27][28]. Styrene - **Upstream**: The prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream products changed. The pure benzene market price continued to decline [31][34]. - **Spot and Futures**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased. The supply side increased, and downstream inventory decreased slightly [32][34]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Caustic Soda**: Prices, overseas quotes, and export profits changed. Operation rates decreased, and inventory showed different trends in different regions [38]. - **PVC**: Spot and futures prices, overseas quotes, and export profits changed. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak [38]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Prices of upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX, and downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [42]. - **Operation Rates and Cash Flows**: Operation rates of various polyester products and cash flows also changed. Different products in the industry chain have different supply - demand and price trends [42].
《特殊商品》日报-20250618
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 01:07
交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月18日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月17日 | 6月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国营全乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13850 | 13900 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -20 | -10 | -10 | -100.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | -120 | -160 | 40 | 25.00% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.45 | 47.05 | 0.40 | 0.85% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12600 | 12200 | 400 | 3.28% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | 13100 | ...
碳酸锂价格继续下探 行业落后产能将加速出清
Group 1 - Lithium carbonate prices have continued to decline, with prices for industrial-grade lithium carbonate in East China at 58,500 to 60,100 yuan per ton and battery-grade at 59,800 to 61,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 400 yuan per ton from the previous period [1] - Since July 2020, lithium carbonate prices have experienced significant volatility, peaking at 570,000 yuan per ton in November 2022, followed by a decline to around 60,000 yuan per ton by early June 2025, representing a drop of over 89% from the peak [1] - The core reason for the price volatility is the reversal of supply and demand dynamics, with continued expansion in the lithium carbonate supply chain leading to oversupply, while the bottom price remains uncertain as it approaches some companies' cash cost lines [1] Group 2 - In June, some smelting plants resumed production, but overseas shipping data indicates a potential decrease in lithium carbonate imports, leading to a tight balance in supply and demand [2] - Analysts expect short-term price fluctuations for lithium carbonate, with limited downward momentum due to the market's focus on low warehouse inventories [2] - The mid-term outlook for lithium carbonate remains challenging, with strong smelting plant output and weak terminal demand, indicating a trend towards a seasonal decline in consumption [2] Group 3 - As lithium ore prices continue to decline and approach mining costs, more production capacity may be forced to exit the market [3] - Companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to enhance competitiveness in the lithium industry [3] - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in capital expenditures, which may lead to a decrease in supply growth, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics as demand continues to grow [3] Group 4 - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a challenging period for lithium carbonate smelting plants, emphasizing the need for sufficient cash flow and lithium ore resources to survive [4] - Cost reduction is identified as the most urgent requirement for companies to avoid being eliminated from the market [4]
有色金属周报(工业硅、多晶硅):基本面暂无实质性改善,价格持续低位承压-20250617
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 13:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon have not improved substantially, and prices continue to be under pressure at low levels. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and short - term improvement is difficult. The polysilicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to remain low [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: As of June 13, 2025, the closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract was 7,280 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from June 6. Spot prices in most regions remained unchanged, with only a few showing minor fluctuations [8]. - **Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the main polysilicon futures contract in East China was 33,695 yuan/ton on June 13, down 3.01% from June 6. Spot prices of various polysilicon grades decreased, such as N - type material down 2.82% [8]. - **Organic Silicon and Related Product Prices**: As of June 13, the average price of DMC was 10,950 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton from the previous period; the average price of 107 glue was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of silicone oil was 13,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [8][91]. - **Silicon Wafer Prices**: Prices of all sizes of silicon wafers decreased, with N - type 183mm silicon wafers down 3.19% [8]. - **Battery Cell Prices**: The price of single - crystal PERC M10 - 182mm battery cells was 0.27 yuan/watt on June 13, down 2.55% from the previous period [8]. - **Component Prices**: Component prices continued to decline, reflecting weak market sentiment [73]. - **Aluminum Alloy Prices**: As of June 13, the average price of ADC12 was 20,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous period; the average price of A356 was 21,150 yuan/ton, up 2.42% [8][103]. 3.2 Cost and Production Factors - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silica stone continued to be weak, and the price of silicon coal and petroleum coke was also weak. The average price of carbon electrodes was 6,850 yuan/ton on June 13, unchanged from the previous period; the average price of graphite electrodes was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [13][28][30]. - **Electricity Costs**: The alternation of flat and dry water periods led to a decline in electricity prices in Southwest China, which reduced the production cost of industrial silicon [18]. - **Industrial Silicon Production**: In the week of June 13, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 10 compared with the previous week. The production in Xinjiang increased slightly, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan increased due to the adjustment of electricity prices [35][36]. - **Polysilicon Production**: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.07 million tons from the previous month but down 8.09 million tons year - on - year. As of June 12, the polysilicon inventory was 27.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. In June, the start - up of polysilicon enterprises increased and decreased, and production was expected to increase slightly [62]. - **Organic Silicon Production**: In May, the operating rate of Chinese DMC was 62.37%, up 3.79 percentage points from the previous month, and the output was 18.4 million tons. In June, the operating rate may decline due to maintenance in some regions [85]. - **Aluminum Alloy Production**: In the week of June 12, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 54.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.9%, unchanged from the previous week [100]. 3.3 Inventory and Market Outlook - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of June 12, the social inventory of industrial silicon was 57.2 million tons, down 1.5 million tons from the previous period; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 23.57 million tons, down 0.32 million tons. As of June 13, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 57,920 lots, equivalent to 28.96 million tons of spot [114]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and the short - term price is expected to range from 7,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is expected to range from 32,000 - 36,000 yuan/ton [3].
冠通每日交易策略-20250617
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 11:47
制作日期:2025 年 6 月 17 日 地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 热点品种 尿素: 今日尿素盘面继续反弹近 4%,上游工厂价格均有不同幅度的上调,市场情绪被连 日反弹的期货价格提涨,下游成交气氛也随之转好。本周上涨同样收到伊以冲突 的影响,国际尿素供应扰动预期刺激国内价格上涨,基本面来看,供给端日产数 据维持在 20 万吨以上水平,目前中长期维持窄幅波动,对行情上方持续形成压 制,需求端,农需备肥好转,东北玉米追肥即将展开,华北地区农需仍在等待启 动,预计下月将逐步展开;复合肥工厂方面,目前工厂开工负荷下降,且厂内成 品库存去化受阻,终端走货不畅,且秋季肥进度缓慢,对原料尿素端需求承接力 度疲弱。上周库存数据显示厂内库存继续增加,除需求疲弱外,出口订单企业主 动累库,待月底逐渐出口货物释放后,厂内库存压力将缓解。综合来看,尿素基 本面依然宽松,本次反弹主要系价格低位下贸易商拿货增加,且以伊冲突刺激能 化板块的走强,多属市场情绪主导而基本面尚未明显有好转,盘面反弹或难形成 持续性看涨行情,但后续农需即 ...
每日期货全景复盘6.17:地缘风险短暂缓解,原油期货价格回落
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-17 11:08
看期货热点,到 3 金十期货 Eleffa 2025 06-17 15:54 6 期市动态雷达 今日主力合约涨跌分布 今日主力合约市场中50个合约上涨,26个合 约下跌。市场呈现明显的多头情绪,更多资金 和交易活动集中在上涨品种上。 主力合约涨跌排行 (%) 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% 涨幅居前的品种: 尿素2509(+3.99%)、20号胶2507(+1.55%)、乙二醇 2509(+1.55%)。这些品种受供需影响显着。 数据透视线索 26 跌幅居前的品种: 原油2507(-2.05%)、苯乙烯2507(-1.7%)、沪金 2508(-1.46%),可能受空头力量增强或基本面利空影响。 资金流向(亿元) 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 资金流入最多的品种: 菜油2509(7.33亿元)、十年国债2509(5.0亿 元)、豆粕2509(3.7亿元),这些品种吸引了大量主力资金关注。 资金流出最多的品种:中证1000 2506(-35.23亿元)、沪深300 2506(-33.3亿元)、中证500 2506(-25.22亿元) ...
广发期货《有色》日报-20250617
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 02:02
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Nickel - The nickel market is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The short - term fundamentals lack drivers, and the mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upside space [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main operating range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton. The supply is high, the demand is slowly recovering, and the social inventory is still high [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton. The supply is sufficient, the demand is affected by policies, and the inventory is at a high level [6]. Tin - The tin price is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the long term due to the slow supply recovery and weak demand expectations. It is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points [7]. Zinc - In the long term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. The price may maintain a high - level shock if the mine supply growth is lower than expected and the downstream consumption is better than expected. Otherwise, the price may decline [10]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price is supported by the low inventory and low warehouse receipts, with the upper limit around 20,500 yuan/ton. In Q3, the price may face pressure, with the support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [14]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.64% to 120,725 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel price decreased by 0.71% to 121,775 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 0.31% to - 192 dollars/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,750 yuan/ton and 12,900 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.25% to 60,500 yuan/ton, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.25% to 58,900 yuan/ton [6]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.11% to 265,300 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.85% to - 82.5 dollars/ton [7]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.08% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 528 yuan/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.48% to 20,630 yuan/ton, and the alumina prices in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi decreased [13]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.39% to 78,645 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 912 yuan/ton [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons, and the import volume increased by 8.18% to 8,832 tons. The SHFE inventory decreased by 5.39% to 25,676 tons [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 179.12 million tons, and the import volume increased by 10.26% to 14.21 million tons [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate production in May decreased by 2.34% to 72,080 tons, and the demand increased by 4.81% to 93,938 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The 4 - month tin ore import increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons, and the SMM refined tin production in May decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons. The SHEF inventory decreased by 3.59% to 7,107 tons [7]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc production in May decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons, and the import volume increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 4.41% to 7.81 million tons [10]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina production in May increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.98% to 45.80 million tons [13]. - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper production in May increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 19.06% to 25.00 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.76% to 81.28 million tons [14]. Market Analysis - **Nickel**: The macro environment is stable, the spot market sentiment is low, and the cost support is slightly weakened. The downstream demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market trading is light, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The supply is high, and the demand is slowly recovering [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures market is volatile, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is affected by policies [6]. - **Tin**: The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply recovery is slow, and the demand expectation is weak [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply - side mine is loose, and the demand - side is gradually weakening. The downstream consumption is in the off - season [10]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term price is supported by the low inventory, but the demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. The alumina supply is gradually increasing [13]. - **Copper**: The macro environment is weak, and the "strong reality" of the fundamentals restricts the decline. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [14].