逆全球化

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5月PMI解读:景气边际回升,政策仍需发力
China Post Securities· 2025-06-03 11:39
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In May, China and the US reached an agreement to suspend the implementation of tariffs, leading to an improvement in Sino-US trade. The import index and new export order index rebounded, driving the recovery of domestic supply and demand, and the manufacturing PMI increased month-on-month. However, considering that the new order index is still below the boom line, enterprises' willingness to expand production is not strong, and the price level continues to decline. The marginal improvement in external demand may have limited impact on boosting the boom level. The US anti-globalization policy has long-term and negative effects on the Chinese economy, and the room for easing domestic fiscal and domestic demand promotion policies may be limited. The expectation of stable growth policies will continue to strengthen [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Export Marginally Improves, Manufacturing Boom Rebounds - Manufacturing PMI rebounds, with a month-on-month increase greater than the seasonal average. In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point. From a seasonal perspective, the month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points is greater than the average increase of 0.1 percentage points in the past five years. However, the manufacturing PMI is lower than the average of 49.9% in the same period of the past five years, only higher than that in 2023 [12]. - Most sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI increase, and the number of sub - indices in the expansion range remains the same as last month. Among the 13 sub - indices, 9 increase in boom level and 4 decline. Only 2 sub - indices, namely the production and operation activity expectation and production, are in the expansion range [14]. - The price indices have declined for three consecutive months, but the decline has narrowed. In May, the main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index of the manufacturing PMI were 46.9% and 44.7% respectively, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the decline has narrowed by 2.7 and 3.0 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month [16]. - The finished product inventory decreases passively, and enterprises' willingness to expand production increases. The raw material inventory index is 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the finished product inventory index is 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points; the purchase volume index is 47.6%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [16]. - Production returns to expansion, and the new order index approaches the critical point. The production index is 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the critical point. The new order index is 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - The PMI of large enterprises rises above the critical point, the boom of medium - sized enterprises declines, and the boom of small enterprises improves. The PMI of large enterprises is 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of medium - sized enterprises is 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of small enterprises is 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - The high - tech manufacturing industry continues to expand. The PMI of the high - tech manufacturing industry is 50.9%, remaining in the expansion range for four consecutive months [20]. 2. Service Industry Boom Slightly Increases, Construction Industry Boom Declines - The non - manufacturing boom level declines but remains in the expansion range, and the month - on - month performance is weaker than the seasonal average. In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point. From a seasonal perspective, the month - on - month decline of 0.1 percentage points is lower than the average increase of 0.9 percentage points in the past five years [22]. - The service industry boom rebounds, and the boom of holiday - related consumption industries increases. The service industry business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, industries such as railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, and catering have significantly rebounded [22]. - The construction industry boom declines but remains in the expansion range. The construction industry business activity index is 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of civil engineering construction is 62.3%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month [23]. - The composite PMI output index slightly rebounds. In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continue to expand [24]. 3. Marginal Recovery of Boom, Policy Still Needs to Be Strengthened - The marginal improvement in external demand has limited impact on boosting the boom level. Although the manufacturing PMI has increased, the new order index is still below the boom line, enterprises' willingness to expand production is not strong, and the price level continues to decline. The US anti - globalization policy has long - term negative effects on the Chinese economy, and the room for easing domestic fiscal and domestic demand promotion policies is limited. Therefore, the expectation of stable growth policies will continue to strengthen [3][26].
波涌回调藏富路,且将机遇入囊中
HTSC· 2025-06-03 11:11
证券研究报告 基础材料 波涌回调藏富路,且将机遇入囊中 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 03 日│中国内地 中期策略 压力与机遇并存,把握回调后的战略配置机遇 "逆全球化"背景下,黄金投资框架发生变化,在矿产金供给相对稳定的前 提下,央行等资产配置需求的大规模增加将利于金价长期上涨。美国通胀预 期、财政赤字、降息预期或均利好黄金,看好金价在特朗普任期内涨至 4500 美金/盎司以上。针对铜,短期需谨防关税扰动下需求提前透支后的回调风 险,长期看好其供需格局的持续改善。针对铝,25H1 光伏抢装和抢出口导 致需求高增长,尽管三季度或存在需求走弱预期,但电解铝价格下跌幅度或 有限;成本下降和供给硬约束或帮助电解铝利润在 25H2-26 年再扩张。针 对钢铁,25 年供给侧优化或重启,铁矿供需格局或趋松,钢价上行空间有 限但行业利润有望持续改善。 黄金:理解边际定价逻辑,特朗普任期或突破 4500 美金/盎司 在历次黄金上涨大周期中,全球经济大变局往往强化特定要素,催生新的边 际买家,重塑黄金投资框架。理解边际买家对价格的主导作用,有助于理解 2022 年以来金价的持续上涨。我们认为,除非美国恢复高增长低通胀并行的 ...
贵金属周报:地缘政治和贸易政策升温,金价上行-20250603
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 06:51
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 姓名:何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F03090813 投资咨询证号:Z0019840 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书,期货投 资咨询资格证书,本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度,独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 6 月 3 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 地缘政治和贸易政策升温,金价上行 核心观点 端午节前,金价震荡下行。端午节期间,地缘政治风险升级,美 国贸易政策再度升温,进而推升金价。 贸易政策方面:5 月 30 日特朗普表示,6 月 4 日起,将把钢铁和 铝的进口关税从 25%提高至 50%。此前,还威胁于 7 月 9 日对欧盟加征 50%关税,引发全球贸易战担忧。。 地缘政治方面:俄乌冲突加剧,乌克兰在第二轮和平谈判前夕, 对俄罗斯五个地区的军事机场发动大规模无人机袭击,目标包括西伯 利亚的 ...
逆全球化重构与“对等关税”冲击下的全球资产配置新范式|财富与资管
清华金融评论· 2025-05-31 10:13
文/中央财经大学绿色金融国际研究院首席经济学家 刘锋 本 文 聚 焦 2 0 2 5 年 全 球 贸 易 格 局大变 革 背景 下, 逆 全球 化 与 " 对 等 关 税"政策对全球资产配置的深远影响。通过剖析传统资产配置理论面 临的挑战,基于"三重框架+五维穿透"理论体系,深入探讨资产配置 新逻辑,从多维度阐述全球资产配置范式重构、投资者应对策略及 未来资产价格驱动逻辑变革,为投资者在复杂多变的市场环境中提 供理论指引与实践参考。 在全球化进程中,全球资产配置曾是投资者获取稳定收益、分散风险的重要手段。然而近年来, 逆全球化趋势加剧,美国的"对等关税"举措给全球经济和金融市场带来巨大冲击,对华加征关税 的"对等报复"措施成为全球产业链、价值链重构的关键催化剂。这一举措不仅是贸易政策的重大 单边转向,更使得全球经济环境变得错综复杂。 在此背景下,传统资产配置理论遭遇前所未有的挑战,原有的风险评估、收益预期和资产定价逻 辑亟待更新。深入研究逆全球化重构与"对等关税"冲击下的全球资产配置新范式,对于投资者规 避风险、实现资产保值增值,以及金融市场的稳定发展具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文基 于"三重框架+五维穿透" ...
特朗普政府的关税困局:法律博弈、社会反弹与国际反制
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-29 17:04
关税政策已在美国国内引发广泛反弹。企业层面,12 个州联合起诉特朗普政府,指控其关税政策 "颠覆宪法秩序"。纽约州总检察长利蒂希娅・詹姆斯直 言:"总统没有权力随心所欲地提高税收"。美国消费者技术协会警告,若关税持续,2025 年该行业购买力将下降 900 亿至 1430 亿美元,笔记本电脑、智能 手机等产品销量可能暴跌 37%-68%。汽车行业首当其冲:斯泰兰蒂斯集团因关税成本暂停北美工厂生产,解雇 900 名工人。 民生层面,关税直接推高物价。耶鲁大学预算实验室研究显示,特朗普的关税政策使 2025 年美国通胀率上升 2.3%,每个家庭年均损失 3800 美元,皮革、 外套等商品价格涨幅超 15%。密歇根大学消费者信心指数从年初的 64.7 暴跌至 5 月的 50.8,创 2020 年以来新低,显示民众对经济前景的悲观情绪加剧。沃 尔玛首席执行官道格・麦克米利恩指出,消费者已出现 "月底前钱花光" 的现象,被迫转向廉价品牌。 政治层面,国会内部裂痕扩大。共和党参议员查克・格拉斯利联合民主党提出《2025 贸易审查法案》,要求总统加征关税需国会批准,并在 60 天后自动失 效。尽管特朗普威胁否决该法案,但已 ...
黄金,接下来还会有一波大行情?
大胡子说房· 2025-05-29 11:15
Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices indicates a significant market reaction to global economic uncertainties, particularly related to the U.S. economy and geopolitical tensions [1][5][14]. Price Movements - On May 15, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with spot gold dropping to a low of $3,120 per ounce, reflecting a daily decrease of nearly 1.8%, while COMEX gold futures fell over 2% to a minimum of $3,123 per ounce [2][3]. - In the previous month, gold had surged to a peak of $3,500 per ounce, resulting in a decline of almost $400 per ounce within two weeks [3][4]. Historical Context - The current gold price reflects a retraction of gains made during a period of temporary tariff implementation [4]. - The gold market's upward trend began in July 2022, with prices rising from $1,900 per ounce to the current level of $3,100 per ounce, marking a 63% increase [6][10]. Driving Factors for Gold Prices - The post-pandemic economic recovery has been slower than expected, leading to lower GDP growth rates in major economies, which historically drives investors towards gold as a safe haven [10]. - Increased geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle Eastern unrest, have heightened the demand for gold as a protective asset [11]. - Central banks globally have been purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually, with significant increases in reserves noted in countries like China and Russia [12]. Fundamental Issues - A critical factor in the long-term bullish trend for gold is the declining trust in U.S. sovereign credit, highlighted by recent downgrades from credit rating agencies [13]. - The inverse relationship between gold prices and the U.S. dollar indicates that as the dollar weakens, gold prices tend to rise, reinforcing gold's role as a hedge against potential dollar depreciation [14]. Future Outlook - The trend of dollar devaluation is expected to continue, driven by the U.S.'s diminishing global influence and internal political divisions, suggesting a sustained bullish outlook for gold [15]. - Historical patterns show that significant corrections in gold prices often precede larger upward movements, indicating a long-term bullish sentiment despite short-term volatility [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - Given the current economic uncertainties, gold is deemed an essential asset for portfolio diversification, with recommendations for investors to allocate a portion of their funds to long-term gold holdings [18][19]. - It is suggested that the returns from gold investments over a five-year horizon are likely to outperform those from more volatile assets like stocks and funds [20].
早间评论早间评论-20250529
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 01:56
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to be cautious about the overall market [6]. - For different commodities, there are various investment suggestions, such as considering long positions in stock index futures, gold futures, and copper futures; being cautious about PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc.; and waiting for opportunities in some commodities like urea and cotton [9][11][57]. Summary by Commodity Categories Bonds and Stocks - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the Ministry of Finance announced local government bond issuance. It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [5][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures had small increases. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is considered to go long on gold futures [11][12]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated lower. The US International Court's ruling on tariffs is beneficial to market sentiment, and it is considered to take long positions in Shanghai copper [56][57]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fell. With the resumption of production in some mines and the increase in production costs in some regions, it is expected that the upward pressure on tin prices is large, and a bearish and volatile view is taken [58]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. Although the cost support is strong, the downstream demand is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [59]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward. There are concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market, and it is suitable for short - term operations. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [23][26]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil rose first and then fell. The global trade demand is recovering, but the increase in inventories in some regions is negative for prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the main fuel oil contract [27][29]. Chemicals - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it is expected to continue to oscillate [35][37]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The cost has decreased in the short term, and the agricultural demand has not been released. It is expected that the price will stabilize and rebound later, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [38][40]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX main contract fell. The short - term supply - demand structure has weakened slightly, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [41]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA main contract fell. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, but the cost support is insufficient, and interval operations are considered [42][43]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal rose slightly, and soybean oil fell slightly. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal; for soybean oil, it is possible to pay attention to out - of - the - money call options at the bottom [60][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil closed up. The inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean oil and palm oil [63][64]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed futures fell. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high or low level in the same period in recent years. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the callback of rapeseed meal [65][67]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell slightly. The suspension of tariffs is beneficial to short - term exports. It is recommended to go long after the callback [68][72]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fell slightly. The global sugar production is expected to recover. It is recommended to conduct interval operations [73][77]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The inventory in cold storage is lower than that of last year, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the callback [78][79]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, the main live - pig contract rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. It is recommended to consider the positive spread opportunity of the peak - season contract [80][82]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the main egg contract fell. The supply of eggs is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to go short after the rebound [83][84]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and it is recommended to wait and see for corn starch [85][87]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the main log contract rose. The arrival of logs at ports has increased, and the market has no obvious driving force [88][89].
重生的TA | 守江山!水产界的“厂二代”,绝不躺平!
新浪财经· 2025-05-29 00:37
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights how Yu Junfeng, the general manager of Zhongshan Dacheng Frozen Food Co., Ltd., navigated the challenges posed by tariff disputes, leading the company to innovate and expand its market reach despite significant obstacles [2][3]. Group 1: Company Background and Challenges - Zhongshan Dacheng Frozen Food Co., Ltd. has been in operation for over 10 years, primarily relying on seafood exports, with 95% of orders coming from overseas markets, particularly the U.S. [5] - The U.S. imposed a 170% tariff on Chinese seafood products, severely impacting the company's operations and leading to over 10 million yuan worth of inventory being halted [5][4]. - The company faced difficulties in selling products like red drum fish domestically due to a lack of local demand, complicating inventory clearance efforts [5] Group 2: Strategic Responses - In response to the tariff crisis, Yu Junfeng initiated a dual-circulation strategy, focusing on both domestic and international markets [8]. - The company partnered with Dongfang Zhenxuan in 2024, becoming a supplier for their self-operated sour fish, which contributed approximately 20% to 30% of Dacheng's revenue in the first year of collaboration [9]. - The partnership with Dongfang Zhenxuan also led to improvements in product safety standards, aligning with export quality requirements [9]. Group 3: Market Expansion Efforts - Yu Junfeng and his team actively sought new markets in the EU, Middle East, Southeast Asia, and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, adapting products to meet various international regulations [11]. - The company’s proactive approach in exploring global markets demonstrates resilience against the challenges posed by rising tariffs and trade tensions [11].
西南期货早间评论-20250528
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 02:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various futures products, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, and provides investment suggestions based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. For example, it is bullish on the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering going long on stock index futures; it believes that the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue and suggests considering going long on gold futures [8][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.26%, 0.11%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Analysis**: The current macro - economic data is stable, but the recovery momentum is still to be strengthened. The central bank carried out 448 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 91 billion yuan. The current treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to remain cautious as there is still uncertainty [5]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.51%, 0.51%, 0.24%, and 0.10% respectively [7]. - **Analysis**: From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year - on - year. As of the end of April 2025, the net asset value of public funds managed by institutions reached 33.12 trillion yuan. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and the market lacks confidence in corporate profits. However, Chinese equity assets are still favored in the long - term due to low valuations and economic resilience [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Be bullish on the long - term performance and consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of gold closed at 771.6, down 0.73%, and the night - session closed at 770.7; the main contract of silver closed at 8,217, down 0.76%, and the night - session closed at 8249 [11]. - **Analysis**: In April, US durable goods orders had a significant decline. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold [11]. - **Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to fall. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2900 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 2960 - 3100 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3200 - 3220 yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is declining with over - capacity. The peak demand season is ending, and the price support may weaken. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to those of rebar. The current steel price valuation is low, but the futures have broken through the support level [13][14]. - **Strategy**: Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. They can participate with a light position [14][15]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The spot price of PB powder at the port was 735 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 610 yuan/ton [16]. - **Analysis**: The daily output of molten iron remains high, supporting the iron ore price. Although the import and domestic production of iron ore decreased in the first quarter, imports increased significantly after April. The port inventory has decreased. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high among black - series products [16]. - **Strategy**: Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities, take profits when the price rebounds, and stop losses if the price falls below the previous low. They can participate with a light position [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to fall [18]. - **Analysis**: The supply of coking coal is still abundant, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. Although the steel mills' molten iron output is high, some mills' purchasing willingness has decreased. The profit of coking enterprises has improved, but the spot price has started to decline again [18]. - **Strategy**: Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. They can participate with a light position [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ferromanganese silicon fell 1.23% to 5616 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon fell 1.73% to 5452 yuan/ton. The spot prices also declined [21]. - **Analysis**: The shipment of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The production of rebar increased slightly, but the demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The high inventory of ferroalloys exerts pressure on the market [21]. - **Strategy**: For ferromanganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low - level intervals; for ferrosilicon, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom, and also consider virtual call options if there are large - scale spot losses [22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly, being suppressed by the 10 - day moving average [23]. - **Analysis**: The CFTC data shows that fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased for the fourth consecutive week. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July [24]. - **Strategy**: The OPEC+ meeting is approaching, and there are concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market. It is suitable for short - term operations. Consider temporarily observing the main contract [25][26]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downward, breaking through the moving - average group. The Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel - oil market eased, while the high - sulfur fuel - oil market continued to rise. The crack spread in the Asian fuel - oil market decreased [27]. - **Analysis**: The tariff friction is gradually being resolved, and global trade demand is recovering, which is positive for fuel - oil prices. However, the inventory in the ARA region has increased, which is negative for prices [28]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling the main contract of fuel oil [29]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose 0.60%. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable at 11,800 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed [30]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure persists, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost has declined. The processing loss of synthetic rubber has increased, the production capacity utilization rate is high, the demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory has increased [30]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate [31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.87%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber rose 2.60%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable at 14,350 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed [32]. - **Analysis**: The market is still worried about the future, and the domestic inventory has increased against the season. The supply is affected by rain, and the demand from tire enterprises may decline slightly. The social inventory is relatively high [32]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate [34]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell 1.58%, and the spot price decreased by 70 - 80 yuan/ton. The basis remained stable [35]. - **Analysis**: The short - term fundamentals have not changed much, mainly following the macro - sentiment. The supply is increasing, the export demand is good, but the domestic demand is weak. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased [35][36]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell 0.17%. The price in Shandong Linyi decreased to 1850 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [38]. - **Analysis**: The short - term cost has decreased, and the agricultural demand has not been released intensively. However, exports will be an incremental demand in the second half of the year, and the agricultural demand will start later. The domestic daily production is expected to remain at around 200,000 tons, and the inventory has increased [38][39]. - **Strategy**: If the price continues to fall, investors can consider going long. Pay attention to policy changes and the spread between domestic and foreign markets [38][40]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2509 rose by 0.06%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 100 US dollars/ton [41]. - **Analysis**: The restart of maintenance devices and the delay of planned maintenance have increased the PX load to 78%. The import volume in April decreased. The international crude oil price is fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting [41]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the crude oil price fluctuates, and the supply - demand structure weakens slightly. It is advisable to participate cautiously, pay attention to the change in crude oil prices and macro - policies, and control risks [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2509 fell by 0.17%. The spot price in East China was 4913 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 3.85% [42]. - **Analysis**: The restart of some devices has increased the PTA load to 77.1%. Some polyester devices have been overhauled, and the terminal orders have decreased. The cost support is insufficient [42]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply - demand structure of PTA has improved, and the inventory has decreased, but the cost support is weak. It is advisable to operate within a range and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell by 0.5% [43]. - **Analysis**: The restart and maintenance of ethylene - glycol devices are concurrent, and the overall operating load is 58.25%. The port inventory has decreased, and the planned arrival volume is also decreasing. The downstream polyester operating rate has decreased, but the demand has improved slightly [43]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply of ethylene glycol has decreased, the port arrival volume has decreased, and the demand has improved, but the cost lacks driving force. It is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [43]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2506 fell by 0.31% [44]. - **Analysis**: The operating load of short - fiber devices has increased to 96.2%. The downstream terminal demand has improved slightly, but the cost support is insufficient. The processing fee is being compressed, and there may be production cuts in the future [44]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it will fluctuate following the cost. It is advisable to participate cautiously and control risks [44]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips 2506 rose by 0.1% [45]. - **Analysis**: The supply of polyester bottle - chip devices has increased to 84.3%, and the growth space may be limited. The downstream soft - drink consumption has continued to recover. The raw - material price is fluctuating, and the cost support has weakened [45][46]. - **Strategy**: In the future, it is expected to follow the cost. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to raw - material price changes [46]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 1231 yuan/ton, down 2.30% [47]. - **Analysis**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the industry's operating load has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the new orders are poor, and some manufacturers have lowered their prices [47]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to reverse, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate steadily [47]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 1031 yuan/ton, up 1.18% [48]. - **Analysis**: Some production lines have resumed production, but the overall number of production lines has not changed much. The actual supply - demand situation has no obvious driving force, and the market price in North China has been low [48][49]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is weak, and the actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [50]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 2449 yuan/ton, down 1.17% [51]. - **Analysis**: Some devices are under maintenance, and the production has increased slightly. The inventory is at a neutral level. The demand for caustic soda is mainly for rigid needs, and the supply is still relatively loose. There are regional differences [51]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the operation of enterprise devices and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [51]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2507 closed at 5274 yuan/ton, down 2.77% [52]. - **Analysis**: A foreign pulp factory is preparing for annual maintenance. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate has fluctuated. The consumption is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [52][53]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is high, and the international supply is abundant. The price may rebound in the short - term due to tariff progress. Pay attention to the actual production cuts of international pulp mills and domestic consumption - stimulation policies [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 0.86% to 60,920 yuan/ton [54]. - **Analysis**: Sino - US trade has made positive progress, but the mine price has decreased, and the production rate has increased. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening during the traditional off - season. The inventory is increasing, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [54]. - **Strategy**: Before the large - scale clearance of mine production capacity, the price is difficult to reverse [54]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated upward, closing above the moving average. The spot price decreased, and the premium also decreased [55]. - **Analysis**: Sino - US tariffs are affecting the real economy, and the US refined - copper inventory is increasing. There is still uncertainty about copper tariffs, and the price may fall after rising [56]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling the main contract of Shanghai copper [57]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fell by 0.4% to 264,290 yuan/ton [58]. - **Analysis**: A tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is resuming production, and the复产 expectation in Myanmar is increasing. The domestic processing fee is low, and the raw - material inventory of smelters is shrinking. The downstream production is good, and the inventory is decreasing. There is a game between the current shortage and the expected supply increase [58]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to face upward pressure and fluctuate downward [58]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell by 0.18% to 122,300 yuan/ton [59]. - **Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations have made new progress, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The supply of nickel ore is expected to tighten, and the cost support is strong, but the downstream nickel - iron plants are suffering losses. The demand
【广发资产研究】全球资产定价低估了美国衰退风险—债务周期下的资产配置新策略系列(六)
戴康的策略世界· 2025-05-27 12:59
Introduction - The article discusses the "new investment paradigm" and highlights the ongoing restructuring of the global order, driven by unconventional methods to address the current global supply-demand imbalance [3][9]. Strategic Level - Global asset pricing significantly underestimates the risk of a U.S. recession, with a notable divergence in investor sentiment regarding the U.S. economy [3][18]. - The current market is seen as having a substantial mispricing of recession risks, particularly in U.S. assets, suggesting that a "recession trade" could be a favorable asymmetric trading strategy [3][52]. - The article emphasizes the need for long-term investors to deeply understand the direction of the global order's restructuring and to assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets [22][51]. Tactical Level - Short-term sentiment in global risk assets, particularly U.S. equities, is perceived to be overstretched, following a significant rebound catalyzed by tariff easing [5][53]. - Indicators such as the VIX futures returning to a contango state and the BNP global risk premium index reaching historical lows suggest high market sentiment but also an accumulation of risk [5][56]. - The article advises a contrarian approach to U.S. equity allocation, focusing on defensive sectors in the short term while monitoring developments in negotiations with key global players [5][64]. Macro Trading Background - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury yields expected to remain high for an extended period, Chinese bond yields expected to remain low, and an elevation in the global risk premium [3][13]. - The article outlines the implications of these macroeconomic factors on global asset correlations and volatility, indicating a potential long-term disruption to existing asset allocation frameworks [13][18].