Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the current valuation is low, and if there are relevant capacity exit policies, the futures market may have room to rise. It is expected to operate in a short - term range [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is poor with increasing inventory and general consumer - end performance. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. The expectation of industry self - disciplined production cuts is strengthening, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards, but attention should be paid to the target price of 60,000 yuan/ton [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On December 15, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upwards. The main contract 2605 opened at 8505 yuan/ton and closed at 8350 yuan/ton, a change of 95 yuan/ton (1.15%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2601 at the close was 200,749 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 14 was 8743 lots, a change of 124 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of December 12, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 561,000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in social ordinary warehouses was 136,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from the previous week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 425,000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons from the previous week [1]. - The quotation of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy** - The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, it is recommended to operate within a short - term range [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On December 15, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely. It opened at 57,000 yuan/ton and closed at 58,030 yuan/ton, a change of 3.61% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 142,844 lots (126,436 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 314,139 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 29.30 (with a month - on - month change of 0.55%), the silicon wafer inventory was 23.30GW (with a month - on - month change of 9.39%), the weekly polysilicon output was 25,100 tons (with a month - on - month change of - 2.71%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.15GW (with a month - on - month change of 1.67%) [3]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.18 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.48 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.23 yuan/piece [3]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28 yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.65 - 0.67 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [4][5]. - **Strategy** - The supply - demand situation of polysilicon is poor with high inventory pressure. After the establishment of the platform company, attention should be paid to the intensity of production and sales restrictions. It is expected that the price will fluctuate upwards, but attention should be paid to the 60,000 yuan/ton target price [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with production profit repair being sluggish, supply contraction falling short of expectations, downstream deep - processing orders being weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory at a historically high level in the same period. The short - term outlook is for glass to mainly oscillate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract rose from 1016 yuan/ton to 1039 yuan/ton, a 2.26% increase. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass remained unchanged at 948 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 68 yuan to - 91 yuan, a 33.82% change [7]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 948 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Regarding glass production profit, no specific profit data is provided. The number of glass production line starts is at a historically low level in the same period, with 219 national float glass production lines in operation and an operating rate of 73.84%. The daily melting volume of float glass is 155,000 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [23][25]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [28][5]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 58.227 million weight boxes, a 2.04% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is operating above the 5 - year average [41]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet shows production, consumption, and other data from 2017 to 2024E, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94% and a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [42]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold - repair have led to production losses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak real - estate terminal demand and low orders from glass deep - processing enterprises, as well as poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry, causing traders and processors to be cautious and focus on inventory digestion [5]. 3.8 Main Logic - Glass supply has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventory has increased. It is expected that glass will mainly oscillate weakly at a low level [6].

来源：@华夏时报微博 华夏时报记者 张玫 北京报道 12月12日，由华夏时报社主办的第十九届华夏机构投资者年会暨华夏金融（保险）科技论坛在北京举行。鹏华基 金指数与量化投资部基金经理闫冬在论坛上分享了他的市场洞察。 他表示，2025年有色金属板块的强劲表现超出预期，其背后是供给刚性、新兴需求及全球库存转移等多重因素共 同支撑的新周期逻辑。同时，他强调当前"反内卷"政策正从法治化和约束地方政府投资冲动等根本层面重塑行业 生态，为布局价格修复与盈利改善的顺周期方向带来了中期机遇。 有色金属强势背后：供给刚性遇上"新叙事"，周期逻辑发生深刻变化 复盘2025年市场，闫冬坦言，以有色金属为代表的周期板块表现之强劲"比较意外"。他指出，尽管科技方向涨幅 领先，但有色金属板块几乎与之并驾齐驱，"甚至很长一段时间保持在第一的位置"，部分品类年内涨幅接近 80%，这促使他深入思考本轮周期的特殊性。 闫冬总结，本轮行情与过往由供给过剩引发投资扩张、继而导致价格下跌的经典周期模式"有很大的不同"。核心 变化在于供给端与需求端同时出现了结构性新约束。 在供给端，以铜为代表的资源品面临严峻的产能瓶颈。"不仅仅是短期投产要五六年才能出 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's macroeconomic work has shifted from short-term risk response to a focus on medium- and long-term economic transformation [1][4] - The external environment for China's economy is expected to stabilize by 2026, allowing for a return to policies aimed at enhancing potential growth and fostering new drivers [3][4] - The economic growth target for 2026 is projected to be between 4.5% and 5%, with an actual growth rate of approximately 4.6% [4] Group 2 - Inflation is expected to remain low, with the average CPI for 2026 estimated at around 0.6%, showing a mild recovery compared to 2025 [5] - Fiscal policy will continue to provide strong support, while monetary policy will remain moderately loose, focusing on coordination with fiscal efforts rather than significant rate cuts [5][9] Group 3 - Global economic growth is anticipated to remain stable in 2026, with a growth estimate of about 3.4% for 2025, continuing into 2026 [6] - The driving forces for global economic growth are expected to shift from consumption to investment, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors [6][7] Group 4 - The "anti-involution" policy is likely to continue into 2026, with its effects expected to take at least 12 months to materialize [12] - The real estate market in China is undergoing adjustments, with key indicators such as housing sales and land transactions being closely monitored [13][14] Group 5 - Foreign investment in Chinese equity assets is increasing, driven by the return on investment potential, while there has been a net outflow in the bond market due to low yields [15] - AI investments are expected to have a direct impact on GDP growth, although the extent and speed of productivity enhancement remain uncertain [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overall, the demand side of coking coal and coke may not have much driving force. On the supply side, domestic coal mines are expected to face policy constraints on coal production release in the future, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in supply. The increment of Mongolian coal imports is expected to be an important supplement to domestic production, with significant potential for growth. Coke production capacity is still in an over - supply stage, and coke enterprises' profits are expected to remain under pressure in 2026, generally following coking coal. However, as it is the beginning of the 15th Five - Year Plan, the country's macro - policies are expected to be positive, and the market may bottom out and rebound if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented [8]. Summary by Directory Annual Viewpoint and Strategy - **Supply**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal imports were lower year - on - year, mainly due to high inventories and weak demand. In the second half, Mongolian coal imports rebounded. In 2026, with a cap on domestic coal production, Mongolian coal is expected to be an important supply supplement. China's coke production from January to October 2025 was 419 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production may remain flat year - on - year [8]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is differentiated, with strong plate demand and weak building material demand, weak domestic demand and strong export demand. Steel exports are expected to remain strong in 2026, but domestic demand is still a concern. Real estate investment and new construction data are expected to decline by double - digits year - on - year, and manufacturing investment may also face a slowdown [8]. - **Inventory**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal inventory was highly differentiated between upstream and downstream, with upstream inventory reaching a record high and downstream inventory remaining low. In the second half, inventory transferred from upstream to downstream. Overall, coking coal inventory decreased. Coke inventory in steel mills, ports, and coking plants also decreased, with an average inventory level higher than last year [8]. - **Viewpoint**: The demand for coking coal and coke may lack driving force. Domestic coal production is restricted by policies, and imports mainly depend on Mongolian coal. Coke production capacity is in surplus, and coke enterprises' profits are expected to be under pressure in 2026, generally following coking coal. However, positive macro - policies may lead to a market rebound [8]. - **Strategy**: After the coking coal main contract stabilizes after a pullback, it can be bought in batches, with a reference support level of 900 - 950 yuan/ton [8]. Market Review - **Q1**: Coking coal and coke continued to decline due to oversupply, with prices moving down. Domestic spot prices weakened, and upstream inventory increased due to insufficient downstream demand [14]. - **Q2**: Coking coal and coke remained weak, testing cost support. Global macro - disturbances and high inventory led to price drops, and the supply - demand mismatch persisted [14]. - **Q3**: Coking coal and coke prices rebounded significantly due to tightened supply expectations caused by coal production checks [14]. - **Q4**: Coking coal and coke prices first rose and then fell. Supply tightened in October, but the market sentiment weakened in November due to energy supply guarantee signals [14]. International Situation - **Global economic growth**: Global steel production growth has slowed down, with developed economies recovering weakly. Asian regions led by India are a new growth pole for iron ore demand, but it is difficult to fully offset China's decline [18]. - **Supply country pattern**: Australia, the US, and Canada are major suppliers of high - quality coking coal, but their exports to China are affected by various factors [18]. - **Global coking coal trade flow**: Mongolia and Russia's export increments are being released, and their coking coal imports are important variables that can impact the domestic market [18]. - **"Green premium" institutionalization**: The global carbon pricing system is forcing the steel industry to transform to a low - carbon path, which will affect long - term coking coal demand [18]. Domestic Situation - **Real estate**: In 2025, the new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and the decline in the real estate market reduced the demand elasticity for coking coal and coke [22]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2026, fiscal stimulus for traditional infrastructure will be weaker, and policies will focus on high - strength and special steel fields, with limited impact on coking coal and coke demand [22]. - **Manufacturing**: Exports of automobiles, home appliances, and ships remain stable, but steel mills' profit margins are compressed, and it is difficult to achieve positive growth in crude steel production [22]. - **Coal consumption**: Coal consumption will peak during the 15th Five - Year Plan and then enter a 10 - year plateau. The policy focus will shift from "supply guarantee" to "carbon control + safety" [22]. - **Coal price mechanism**: In 2026, a new mechanism for thermal coal long - term contracts will be implemented, with more market - oriented pricing and a narrower price fluctuation range, which will indirectly provide a valuation anchor for coking coal [22]. Macroeconomic Policies - **High - quality development**: The steel raw material market will build a policy support system around "low - carbon transformation, resource security, and structural optimization" during the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the traditional supply - demand logic is being broken [27]. - **Green and low - carbon policies**: Green and low - carbon policies will be intensified, and the proportion of electric arc furnace steel is expected to increase to 20% - 25% to achieve carbon reduction goals [27]. - **"Anti - involution" and supply - side reform**: The 15th Five - Year Plan will emphasize high - quality development, and policies on coal and other traditional industries will be more restrictive, with tightened coal production capacity and long - term supervision on over - production [27]. Fundamentals - **Industrial chain structure**: Multiple charts show the price trends of coking coal and coke contracts, spreads between contracts, spot prices, inventory levels, import volumes, production rates, and output of related enterprises [33][38][42] - **Inventory**: As of December 12, 2025, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased slightly compared to the beginning of the year, while the clean coal inventory decreased by 33.36%. Overall, coking coal inventory decreased in 2025. Coke inventory in steel mills, ports, and coking plants also showed a downward trend [59]. - **Imports**: From January to October 2025, coking coal imports decreased by 4.8% year - on - year, with a 1% decrease in Mongolian coal imports. Australian coal imports decreased by 10%, and Russian coal imports increased by 4%. In 2026, Mongolian coal imports are expected to be an important supply supplement [73][77]. - **Production**: From January to October 2025, China's raw coal production was 3.97 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, and coke production was 419 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production is expected to remain flat year - on - year [81][83]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the average daily hot metal production was close to 2.38 million tons per day, a year - on - year increase of nearly 4%. From January to November 2025, steel exports reached 107.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.33%. In 2026, steel exports are expected to remain strong, but domestic demand is still a concern [90]. - **Profit**: The profit of independent coking plants is significantly affected by profit levels. In 2025, the profit per ton of coke decreased year - on - year, and there were only opportunities for repair when coking coal prices decreased or steel mills replenished inventory [104]. Technical Analysis - Technically, the prices of coking coal and coke are in a downward channel, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement and no obvious signs of a stop - fall. It is expected that there will be strong support around 900 yuan/ton on the weekly Bollinger Bands lower rail, and it is necessary to observe whether the coking coal price can stop falling and stabilize around this level [108].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to perform strongly in 2025, driven by supply rigidity, emerging demand, and global inventory shifts, indicating a new cyclical logic [2][3] - The current market cycle differs significantly from past cycles characterized by supply excess leading to investment expansion and price declines, as both supply and demand sides are experiencing structural constraints [3][4] - Supply-side challenges include severe capacity bottlenecks for resource products like copper, with production costs rising and geopolitical risks complicating capacity expansion, leading to long-term supply rigidity [3][4] Group 2 - On the demand side, a strong "new narrative" is emerging, driven by trends in industries like AI and considerations of geopolitical relationships and tariff policies, resulting in a "stock siphoning" phenomenon in the U.S. [3][4] - Despite discussions of "bubbles" in high valuations for certain commodities, the fundamental changes in supply and demand dynamics suggest that a significant drop in non-ferrous metals prices is unlikely, with price levels expected to remain elevated [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is reshaping investment logic by legally regulating production capacity and aiming to control local government investment impulses, which is crucial for addressing overcapacity issues across various industries [5][6] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy, initiated in July 2025, has played a key role in rebalancing market styles, as evidenced by the significant growth of the Penghua chemical ETF from several billion to nearly 20 billion [5][6] - The policy's core approach focuses on legal frameworks to regulate market behavior, contrasting with previous reliance on administrative measures, and aims to address overcapacity issues linked to local government actions [5][6] - Although short-term investment and financing data may appear weak, the slow recovery of CPI and PPI indicates that the policy is addressing long-term fundamental issues, with confidence in achieving PPI reversal through a series of measures [6]

"从盈利预期看，物价有望合理回升，结构盈利修复可期。宏观层面，政策组合发力助推2026年物价合 理回升。"谭倩认为，政策强调提质增效，针对当前经济"供强需弱"的特征，实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，积极有效扩大国内需求，深入整治内卷式 竞争，着力稳定房地产市场，深化重点领域改革等，推动供需结构的持续改善，她预计2026年PPI同比 降幅稳步收窄直至转正，物价回升前景可期。 谭倩表示，三大支撑助力2026年企业盈利修复。第一是新质生产力逐步成为经济增长新引擎。随着我国 现代化产业体系建设加快推进，新质生产力稳步发展，人工智能、生物医药、新能源等新兴产业快速发 展，并成为经济增长的重要助推力，中央经济工作会议明确"加紧培育壮大新动能"，2026年新兴产业的 增长弹性会进一步凸显。第二是反内卷政策有望进一步深化提速。反内卷是"扩大内需、优化供给"的重 要抓手，主要举措是加快统一大市场建设、优化市场竞争秩序、加强重点行业产能治理、规范地方招商 引资行为，多措并举，优化供需格局。现阶段反内卷已在光伏、锂矿、化工等局部产业环节初有成效， 后续伴随政策表述转向"深入整治"，反内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials sector experienced a decline of 1.41% during the week of December 6-12, 2025, underperforming against the Shanghai Composite and Wind All A indices, which saw changes of -0.08% and +0.26% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -1.33% and -1.67% [1] Group 1: Cement Market - The national average price for high-standard cement was 354.8 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 yuan/ton from the previous week but a significant decrease of 69.2 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises was 64.8%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous week but up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The average cement shipment rate was 43.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous week and down 0.9 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] Group 2: Glass Market - The average price for float white glass was 1165.1 yuan/ton, up 1.2 yuan/ton from the previous week but down 247.0 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] - The inventory of float glass among sample enterprises was 5.542 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 133,000 heavy boxes from the previous week but an increase of 1.254 million heavy boxes compared to 2024 [2] - The domestic market for non-alkali roving yarn remained stable, with mainstream transaction prices for 2400tex non-alkali yarn ranging from 3250 to 3700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The cement industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in profitability due to proactive supply-side adjustments, with a projected increase in clinker capacity utilization [6] - The glass industry is facing a supply contraction, which may provide price elasticity in 2026, although current conditions are characterized by widespread losses among producers [7] - The fiberglass sector anticipates stable growth in demand driven by wind power and new applications, with a projected increase in effective capacity for 2026 [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth slowed down in 2025 with a decline in quarterly GDP growth rates. Consumption was stable supported by policies, net - export performance exceeded expectations, and investment was the weakest contributor. The economic logic changed from high real growth with deflation in the first half to deflation repair with output deceleration in the second half. The "anti - involution" policy was a major influencing factor [2][5][90]. - In 2026, the inventory cycle is expected to recover, with the bottom likely in the second quarter. The economy will show a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half, and the internal driving force will strengthen. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the slowdown of de - globalization will improve external demand. The real output growth rate will rise steadily, and supply - demand will re - balance [2][5][90]. - The government is likely to set the target of the annual real GDP growth rate at around 5.0% in 2026. Deflation will gradually turn into weak inflation, and the nominal GDP growth rate will improve significantly, which will be the foundation for the improvement of corporate revenue, profits, fiscal revenue, and household income in the long - term [2][5][90]. - The commodity market will continue to rebound in an oscillatory manner in 2026. In the first half, supply constraints and the "anti - involution" narrative will boost new energy and non - ferrous metals. In the second half, the structural market may turn into a systematic one, with a more widespread rise in prices and a reduction in the differences among industrial products. The rebound height of black products depends on the real estate situation. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged [2][87][91]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Economic Highlights in 2026 May Lie in Nominal Growth 1. External Disturbances End, the Cycle Hits Bottom, and Supply - Demand Will Re - balance - In 2025, industrial added - value growth was stable, and nominal output first declined and then rebounded. The economic growth logic in the second half was different from that in the first half. High - tech and equipment manufacturing industries had the fastest growth rates. The semiconductor industry output was concentrated upstream. The main problem was the imbalance between supply and demand due to weak external and internal demand [15]. - The inventory cycle is expected to recover in 2026, with the bottom likely in the second quarter. The economy will show a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions will improve external demand. High - tech manufacturing will remain strong, while traditional industries will have limited upward space [15][16]. 2. Weakening Financial Support Leads to a Temporary Slowdown in Investment Growth - In 2025, the investment growth rate continued to slow down, becoming a major drag on domestic demand. By November, the real cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment decreased to 1.5%, and the nominal year - on - year growth rate dropped to - 1.7% [19]. - Infrastructure investment was weaker than expected, mainly affected by the amount and timing of funds. Manufacturing investment was generally stable, supported by monetary and fiscal policies. The negative impact of Sino - US trade conflicts on manufacturing investment confidence will gradually weaken. Real estate investment was the main drag, with a cumulative decline of nearly 15%. The real estate market sales were poor, and the industry's capital chain was weak. In the long - term, the real estate industry is difficult to return to the upward cycle [19][20][22]. 3. Subsidies Are the Main Support for Consumption, and Income Should Be Concerned in the Long - Term - In 2025, consumption growth first accelerated and then slowed down. The main influencing factor was the subsidy policy, with a total of 300 billion yuan invested, double that of 2024. The decline in consumption growth was mainly due to the reduction in subsidies. The long - term consumption trend depends on income growth, including passive and active income improvement and wage income improvement. Endogenous consumption repair may occur in the second half of 2026 [24]. 4. The Foreign Trade Environment Will Improve in 2026 - In 2025, China's exports exceeded expectations. Sino - US trade was affected by the trade war, with four stages of tariff adjustments. The overall export structure showed an upward trend in emerging industries and a downward trend in traditional labor - intensive industries. The trade surplus continued to reach new highs [28]. - In 2026, exports are expected to maintain growth, especially in the second half. Imports will gradually accelerate with the domestic inventory - building process. The contribution of foreign trade to the economy will increase [28]. Part 2: Deflation Will Turn into Weak Inflation, Increasing Support for Nominal Growth 1. The Driving Logic of CPI Changes, and Core CPI Rises Steadily - In 2025, CPI fluctuated around 0, and core CPI continued to rise, reaching about 1.2% in the fourth quarter. Food prices were mainly affected by seasonality, and pork prices had a negative impact on CPI. Oil prices also dragged down CPI. Core CPI reflected the structural changes in the domestic consumer market and the rise in international gold prices [45]. - In 2026, the pig cycle will have a small positive impact on food prices, and oil price drag will decrease. Core CPI will continue to improve with economic recovery, and its central value may rise to around 0.5% [45]. 2. The Low Point of PPI Has Passed, and Deflation Will Turn into Weak Inflation - In 2025, PPI first declined and then rebounded. The main factors were imported deflation and industrial supply - demand imbalance. High - tech manufacturing prices were stable, which was a key factor in stabilizing PPI. In the second half, the negative factors eased [48]. - In 2026, the global economy will improve cyclically, and PPI is likely to turn positive. The new price - increasing momentum will gradually strengthen, and PPI will change from a drag to a driver of the GDP deflator [48]. Part 3: Loose Fiscal Policy Remains the Pillar, and "Anti - Involution" Enhances Economic Resilience 1. Loose Monetary Policy, and the Risk - Free Yield May Remain Stable - In 2025, the central bank's monetary policy was loose, with interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts in May. Government financing was the main factor affecting macro - liquidity in the second and third quarters, and "anti - involution" supported the liquidity of upstream and mid - stream enterprises. The growth rate of broad social financing slowed down in the fourth quarter [54]. - In 2026, fiscal increment will still have the strongest impact on macro - liquidity. The central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 10BP and reserve requirement ratio by 25BP. The risk - free yield may remain volatile [54]. 2. Budgetary Revenue Stabilizes, and Broad Fiscal Policy Shows Structural Improvement - In 2025, fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates recovered. Tax revenue was stable and increased, while land transfer revenue was low, dragging down the broad fiscal situation. Fiscal expenditure on infrastructure was affected by policies, and the fiscal deficit increased significantly [60]. - In 2026, fiscal policy will remain proactive. Broad fiscal policy will show structural improvement, mainly driven by the improvement of nominal growth and accelerated net financing. The degree of real estate recovery in the second half will be a decisive factor [61]. 3. "Anti - Involution" Is the Largest Policy Increment and Will Continue to Affect the Economy - The "anti - involution" policy was introduced in 2025 to address deflation, supply - demand imbalance, and local government incentive mechanism problems. It mainly focused on emerging industries with over - capacity and price wars [69][70]. - In 2026, the implementation of "anti - involution" policies will continue, improving corporate revenues, especially for upstream enterprises. The policy will focus on optimizing the supply - side structure, and future demand - side policies are important to watch [71]. Part 4: The Renminbi Will Maintain a Relatively Strong Position Against the US Dollar - In 2025, the RMB exchange rate was generally slightly bullish. Against the US dollar, it showed an appreciating trend with a three - stage pattern. The main reasons were the increase in foreign - related net receipts and bank customer net settlement of foreign exchange, as well as the central bank's policy to maintain exchange rate stability [76]. - In 2026, the RMB is likely to continue to appreciate against the US dollar, with the high point expected around 6.7. However, the appreciation space of the exchange rate index is limited due to factors such as stable foreign trade [76][77]. Part 5: The Commodity Market Will Continue to Rebound in an Oscillatory Manner - In 2025, most domestic commodity futures prices declined, with increased differentiation. In the first and second quarters, prices fell, and in the third quarter, they rebounded due to the "anti - involution" policy. In the fourth quarter, most prices oscillated or declined again. Different commodity sectors had different performances [84]. - In 2026, the commodity market will continue to rebound. In the first half, new energy and non - ferrous metals will be boosted, and in the second half, the market may turn into a systematic one. The rebound height of black products depends on the real estate situation, and precious metals will maintain an upward trend [87][91]. Part 6: Full - Text Summary and Outlook for 2026 - The economic situation in 2025 was weak, with consumption as the main support, net - export exceeding expectations, and investment being the weakest. The economic logic changed in the second half of the year, and the "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact [89][90]. - In 2026, the economy is expected to improve with the recovery of the inventory cycle, the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, and the improvement of external demand. The government may set the real GDP growth target at around 5.0%. Deflation will turn into weak inflation, and the commodity market will continue to rebound [90][91].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the shift in policy focus from "expansion" to "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," highlighting the importance of development quality in the economic context of 2026 [3][12][13] - The report anticipates a reasonable recovery in prices, with expectations that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will gradually narrow its year-on-year decline and eventually turn positive in 2026, supported by a combination of macroeconomic policies [4][14] - Three key supports for corporate profit recovery in 2026 are identified: the emergence of new productive forces as a growth engine, the acceleration of anti-involution policies, and resilient overseas demand contributing to strong export performance [4][15][16] Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market will increasingly correlate with fundamental performance in 2026, with a focus on profit recovery driven by price increases and structural improvements [5][17] - Historical patterns indicate that the A-share market will initially favor growth stocks, followed by cyclical stocks, and eventually consumer stocks, with three main investment themes: technology growth sectors led by AI, industries benefiting from anti-involution policies, and high-demand export sectors [5][17]