Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the given reports. Core Views Copper - Market expects the Fed to enter an interest - rate cut cycle in July or September, weakening the US dollar and boosting copper prices. The tight supply in other regions and the continuation of "strong reality" in the fundamentals support copper prices. Short - term copper prices may rebound, and the shortage trend is hard to reverse before the "232" investigation ends, with a reference range of 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina market maintains a slight surplus in the short - term, with prices expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term, with a reference range of 2750 - 3150. Aluminum prices are supported by the macro environment and low inventory but limited by the off - season, expected to be in high - level wide - range oscillations, with a reference range of 20000 - 20800 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum - alloy market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the demand side being more prominent. The market will continue to suppress price increases, but the stable aluminum - aluminum alloy price spread and the strong electrolytic aluminum price provide support. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with a reference range of 19200 - 20000 [4]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is in a loose trend. The demand side is weakening. It is advisable to take a high - short approach, with a focus on the TC growth rate and downstream demand changes. The reference range for the main contract is 22500 - 23000 [7]. Nickel - The nickel market has a short - term price rebound due to improved sentiment. The supply shortage of nickel ore has been alleviated. The cost support has weakened, and the medium - term supply is loose. The price is expected to adjust within a range, with a reference range of 116000 - 124000 [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has a short - term price rebound affected by news and sentiment. The fundamentals are weak, with high production, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction. The price is expected to operate weakly, with a reference range of 12300 - 13000 [11]. Tin - The tin supply recovery is slow, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Considering the pessimistic demand outlook, it is advisable to short at high levels based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has a short - term price rebound due to news and sentiment. The supply is sufficient with clear pressure, and the demand is hard to boost. The price is expected to operate within a range of 58000 - 64000, and attention should be paid to upstream production and downstream orders [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose to 80125 yuan/ton, up 1.50%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 35.34%. The import profit and loss was - 2990 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12%, and imports were 25.31 million tons, up 1.23%. Domestic social inventory decreased by 10.83% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose to 20890 yuan/ton, up 1.36%. The import profit and loss was - 1169 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.12% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose to 20100 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. The monthly spread of some contracts changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.60 million tons, down 0.66%. The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 6.74% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose to 22570 yuan/ton, up 1.39%. The import profit and loss was - 1307 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08%, and imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%. The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 0.13% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose to 122300 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel decreased by 4.16% [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In May, China's refined nickel production was 35350 tons, down 2.62%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 12700 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.28% [11]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose to 269000 yuan/ton, up 1.20%. The import profit and loss was - 14640.51 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports were 13449 tons, up 36.39%. SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, down 2.37% [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 61150 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. The basis was - 2190 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72080 tons, down 2.34%. The total inventory increased by 1.49% [14].

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic data from the United States has raised concerns about the future trajectory of the US dollar, leading to a significant decline in its value and prompting a reevaluation of its status as the global reserve currency [1][2]. Economic Data Summary - The core PCE price index for May slightly exceeded expectations, rising by 0.2% month-on-month, but consumer spending fell by 0.3%, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year [1]. - The final GDP figure for Q1 and new home sales data released on June 25 showed weak performance, further increasing expectations for interest rate cuts [1]. - Market data indicates a 27% probability of a rate cut in July and an 84% probability in September [1]. Dollar Performance Summary - The dollar index has experienced a continuous decline, dropping below the 97 mark, the lowest level since March 2022 [1]. - Year-to-date, the dollar has fallen by 10.34%, with a decline of 4.59% over the past two months [1]. Factors Influencing Dollar Decline - The strong performance of the euro, which accounts for over 60% of the dollar index, has significantly contributed to the dollar's weakness [2]. - A historic agreement among NATO members to significantly increase defense spending is expected to inject new momentum into the European economy, further boosting the euro [2]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Germany's fiscal stimulus measures are anticipated to increase investments in infrastructure and military sectors in Europe, supporting the euro's exchange rate [2]. Federal Reserve's Stance - Despite rising calls for interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve has not yet taken action, with Chairman Jerome Powell expressing concerns about inflation risks from trade wars [2][4]. - Powell's recent testimony indicated that while many paths are possible regarding rate cuts, there is no clear timeline, leading to market interpretations of a potential softening stance [4]. - Trump has publicly criticized Powell for not cutting rates, arguing that this has caused the US economy to lag behind Europe [4]. Concerns About Dollar's Reserve Status - Powell has countered concerns about the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, asserting that it remains the largest safe-haven currency globally [4]. - However, Powell has expressed worries about the unsustainable trajectory of US federal debt, which could materially damage the dollar's reserve currency status [5]. - The recently passed "Big Beautiful Bill" is projected to increase federal debt by $3.8 trillion over the next decade, reaching 125% of GDP, exacerbating the debt issue and potentially impacting the dollar's reserve status [5].

2025年06月30日 星期一 商品期货早班车 单击此处输入文字。 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：周五电解铝 2508 | | 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.66%，收于 20580 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 490 元/吨， | | | LME 美元/吨。 | 价格 2595 | | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | 铝 | | | 交易策略：全球关税摩擦缓和预期叠加美元指数下行，宏观环境呈现利好。但沪铝基本面面临需求走弱及成 | | | 本支撑趋弱的双重压力，存在潜在下行风险，建议谨慎看多。 | | | | | 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 | | | | | 2509 | 市场表现：周五氧化铝 | 合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.29%，收于 2948 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 167 元/吨。 | | 氧 | | | 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂生产情况稳定，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运 | | 化 | | ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

刚刚过去的一周（2025 年 6 月 20 日至 27 日）在全球金融市场掀起了一场显著的风险偏好回归浪潮。 在经历了数周因地缘政治紧张和货币政策不确定性带来的谨慎情绪后，市场情绪迎来了戏剧性的转变， 这主要得益于两大关键因素的共振效应。 首先，中东地区地缘政治紧张局势的显著缓解，特别是以色列与伊朗之间达成的停火协议，如同注射了 一剂强心针，迅速平息了冲突升级的担忧，移除了笼罩在投资者心头的一块乌云。 市场对此反应迅速且积极，最直接的体现便是原油价格的急剧下跌。布伦特原油从接近 80 美元的高位 迅速回落至 66 美元，这一下跌幅度是自 2023 年 3 月以来最大的单周跌幅，清晰地反映出地缘政治风险 溢价的快速蒸发。 黄金作为传统的避险资产，也因此失去了部分吸引力，连续第二周下跌，表明在风险缓解的环境下，资 金正在从避险资产流出，转向更具增长潜力的资产类别。 尽管美伊之间仍有摩擦，但双方展现出的克制和外交努力，进一步巩固了市场对局势可控的预期。此 外，美中贸易谈判风险的暂时避免，也为全球风险情绪的改善提供了额外支撑。 如果说地缘政治的缓解是点燃市场情绪的火花，那么美联储的鸽派信号则是为这场反弹提供了持续的燃 ...

锌周报 2025 年 6 月 30 日 宏微观共振 锌价低位反弹 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价低位反弹。宏观面看，以伊停火，中东 地缘紧张局势缓和。美国经济就业数据走弱，叠加美联储 官员释放鸽派言论，增强 7 月降息预期，降息及避险回落 影响下，美元跌势不止，利好金属。国内股市持续走强， 且第三批以旧换新资金 7 月下发提振耐用品消费预期，市 场情绪偏好。 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 基本面看，受罢 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 短线看弱 | 地缘冲突缓和，金价技术压力较 大 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：上周金价持续下行，内外金价均跌破 60 日均线。伊朗和以色列停战 ...

股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金、白银、原油期货将偏弱震荡 工业硅、多晶硅、碳酸锂期货将震荡偏强 螺纹钢、铁矿 石、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱、PTA、PVC、豆粕期货将偏强震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 2025 年 6 月 30 日 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3904 和 3931 点，支撑位 3872 和 3852 点；IH2509 阻力位 2703 和 2728 点，支撑位 2667 和 2653 点；IC2509 阻力位 5810 和 5838 点，支撑位 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 金属与材料 证券研究报告 美元弱势叠加降息交易预期再起，有色偏强运行 基本金属：铜铝普涨。1）铜：本周铜价向上突破，沪铜收于 79920 元/吨。本周铜价受海外市场影响显著， 呈现重心上移后震荡特征。宏观层面，地缘局势缓和使不稳定因素暂减。基本面中，海外因 COMEX 与 LME 价差，货源向北美转移，LME 库存跌破 10 万吨，创近年同期较低水平（仅高于 2022 年），挤仓风险升 温，带动价格走高并传导至国内。国内冶炼厂出口积极性提升，国内库存随之下降；不过消费端表现冷清， 终端需求跟进不足。同时，铜精矿年中长单谈判价格环比续降，冶炼厂生产亏损压力凸显。整体而言，海 外挤仓风险推升铜价重心，但高铜价抑制国内需求，后续上涨驱动力或减弱。2）铝：本周铝价回落后上涨， 沪铝收于 20580 元/吨。供应方面，国内电解铝行业有复产、新投动作，集中在贵州、云南地区，理论开工 产能较上周增加，供应端压力有所上升。需求方面，铝棒产量减量集中于河南、广西、贵州；铝板产量大 体持稳，铝棒、铝板行业对电解铝理论需求减少。终端看，5 月地产市场平稳，但铝锭市场接货情绪转冷， 叠加伊以宣布停战，市场 ...

从市场运行节奏看，沪指突破五、六月份的震荡小箱体，但去年四季度高点附近压力仍大。沪指上 周一举突破了五、六月份来回震荡的小箱体，实现了重心的上移，并创出年内新高。但是，去年四季度 的成交密集区仍有较强技术阻力，在没有实质性利好信息的配合下，预计难以一蹴而就得向上突破。 首先，中东地缘事件缓和，市场风险偏好回升。上周，以色列和伊朗的军事冲突有所缓和，交战各 方约定停战止戈。全球资本市场总体呈现回升状态，国内市场风险偏好明显回升，沪指创出年内新高。 此外，美联储降息预期在上周有所加强，亦对反弹行情有所助推。展望后期，国内经济数据和上市公司 的中报将成为影响行情的重要影响因素。 上周，两市震荡反弹，日均成交明显增加。沪指上周一路反弹，周中高点冲破年内高点，周五有所 回落，收盘略低于五天均线。深圳成指上周持续反弹，周五收盘重新站上半年线。量能方面，上周两市 日均量能超过 14000 亿，较上周出现明显增加。上周市场热点主要集中在军工、TMT 和非银金融行 业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技风格涨幅更大。 风险提示：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超 预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 ...