Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp rise in US stocks will reignite the sentiment in the A-share market, and the market is expected to resume its upward movement on Wednesday, maintaining a volatile upward trend [17][19]. - For treasury bond futures, the profit-taking in the cash bond market is increasing, and investors should focus on structural opportunities. While the policy risk for going long on futures bonds has decreased, the potential for a continuous decline in treasury bond yields remains limited [20][21]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price of soybeans in the US is rising, providing strong cost support for domestic soybean meal. The international sugar market is weak, while the domestic sugar market is relatively strong. The short - term trend of the oil and fat sector is slightly weak, and the corn market is experiencing increased supply and weakening prices [22][25][28]. - In the black metals sector, steel and ore prices are rising in succession, but the upside potential is limited. Coking coal and coke have support at the bottom but face resistance when rising. Iron ore prices are expected to be bearish at high levels [56][59][61]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals are experiencing a downward adjustment due to the easing of risk factors. Copper prices are waiting for a breakthrough opportunity as downstream acceptance is currently insufficient. Alumina prices are bottoming out with potential production cuts in the future [67][71][78]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the impact of sanctions on crude oil has been fully priced in, and the pressure of oversupply remains. The cost of asphalt provides no positive support, and the supply - demand situation is weakening on the margin [16]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: The sharp rise in US stocks will reignite the sentiment in the A - share market. Although the stock index pulled back on Tuesday, the market is expected to resume its upward movement on Wednesday [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips without chasing high prices. Consider cash - and - carry arbitrage by going long on IM\IC 2512 and short on ETFs. Buy call options on the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index, the STAR Market 50 Index, and the ChiNext Index on dips [20]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Investment Logic**: The profit - taking in the cash bond market is increasing. While the policy risk for going long on futures bonds has decreased, the potential for a continuous decline in treasury bond yields remains limited [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on dips. Consider shorting the inter - delivery spread or flattening the yield curve (TL - 3T) [22]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Investment Logic**: The upward movement of the US soybean market is driven by the improvement in the macro environment, but the international soybean supply pressure is still high. Domestic soybean meal prices have risen significantly due to cost factors, but the upside potential is limited [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short a small amount of far - month contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [25]. Sugar - **Investment Logic**: The international sugar market is facing increased production in major producing areas, with a weak fundamental outlook. In the domestic market, the suspension of imports of some pre - mixed powders and the start of sugar mill operations are expected to support prices in the short term [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term but may rebound in the short - term. The domestic market is expected to be strong in the short - term. Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [28][29]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Investment Logic**: The production and export growth of Malaysian palm oil in October has slowed down, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly. Domestic soybean oil is slightly accumulating inventory, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, providing some support for prices. The short - term trend of the oil and fat sector is slightly weak [30][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term. Consider going long on dips after the price stabilizes. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [33]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Investment Logic**: The supply of corn is increasing, and the price of the futures market is expected to be weak and volatile. The US corn market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the December CBOT corn futures on dips. Wait and see for the January contract. Wait for dips to go long on the May and July contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Live Pigs - **Investment Logic**: The short - term pressure on live pig supply has improved, but the overall inventory is still high, and the supply pressure remains. The price of live pigs is expected to face some downward pressure [37][38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short a small amount of contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. Peanuts - **Investment Logic**: The spot price of peanuts is falling, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. The new - season peanut quality is lower than last year, and the market is waiting for the supply to increase [40][41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the January and May contracts. Sell the PK601 - P - 7600 option [41]. Eggs - **Investment Logic**: The number of culled laying hens has increased, and the egg price has stabilized. The supply of laying hens is still at a high level, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term [42][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out previous short positions and wait and see. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46]. Apples - **Investment Logic**: The quality of the new - season apples is poor, and the good - fruit rate is low. The cost of making apple warehouse receipts is high, and the inventory is expected to be lower than expected. The apple price has shown a strong trend recently, but the upward potential is limited [47][49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out previous long positions and wait and see. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Investment Logic**: The cotton purchase is at its peak, and the purchase price is stable. The demand side has not changed significantly. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have reached a preliminary consensus, and the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly strong [52][53]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US cotton is expected to be range - bound. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly strong. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. Black Metals Steel - **Investment Logic**: The demand for steel is gradually recovering, and the inventory is shifting from the factory to the social level. The price of coking coal is rising, providing support for steel prices. However, the high inventory of plate products and the slowdown in capital release in the fourth quarter still pose pressure on steel prices [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The steel price is expected to be slightly strong and volatile. Go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Wait and see for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Logic**: The price of coking coal is strong, and the second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented. The supply of coking coal is restricted by safety regulations, but the increase in imported Mongolian coal and the reduction in steel mill demand limit the upward potential of prices [59][60]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile at high levels. Close out long positions and consider going long on dips in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [61]. Iron Ore - **Investment Logic**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The domestic iron element inventory has been increasing since the third quarter, and the price of iron ore is expected to be bearish [62][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [64]. Ferroalloys - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic sentiment is fading, and the supply - demand pressure in the ferroalloy market remains. The production of silicon iron and manganese silicon is still at a high level, while the demand is affected by steel production cuts [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider shorting as the supply - demand pressure persists. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell an out - of - the - money straddle option combination [65][66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Investment Logic**: The improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the expected cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict have reduced market risk aversion, leading to a downward adjustment in precious metal prices [67][69]. - **Trading Strategy**: The precious metal market may continue to adjust. Close out previous long positions and wait for a signal of the end of the correction. Aggressive investors can short with a stop - loss. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. Copper - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic sentiment has improved, and the supply of copper ore is facing more disruptions. The expected processing fee for next year is very low. The supply of electrolytic copper is relatively tight, but the downstream consumption is weak, and the acceptance of high prices is low [72][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips and beware of short - term pullbacks. Hold a long position in the inter - market spread. Consider a long position in the inter - delivery spread after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Wait and see for options [74]. Alumina - **Investment Logic**: The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the pressure is increasing as the downstream inventory build - up is completed. High - cost alumina producers may face more cost pressure, and future production cuts are expected. The price is currently bottoming out [77][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to bottom out in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [78][79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Investment Logic**: The global trade situation is easing, and the macro - economic sentiment is positive. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production is decreasing, and the domestic real estate completion area has shown a slight recovery. The medium - term trend of aluminum prices is expected to be strong [80][81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to be strong and volatile. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [82]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic outlook is improving, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The demand is resilient, and the low factory inventory supports the price. The short - term price of ADC12 is expected to remain firm [83][84]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of aluminum alloy is expected to be strong and volatile following the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. Zinc - **Investment Logic**: The domestic zinc concentrate market is tight, and the processing fee is decreasing. The supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to weaken as the peak season ends. The LME zinc price is relatively strong due to low inventory. The short - term trend is range - bound [85][87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out profitable long positions and wait and see. Consider shorting at high levels if the export volume is low. Consider a long position in SHFE zinc and a short position in LME zinc based on the export situation. Wait and see for options [87]. Lead - **Investment Logic**: Some lead - acid battery manufacturers are reducing production to avoid inventory risks, while the supply of recycled lead is expected to increase. The lead price may continue to decline as the supply increases and the demand enters the off - season [89][91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions and beware of the impact of capital on the lead price. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell an out - of - the - money call option [91]. Nickel - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic situation is favorable, but the supply - demand relationship is loose. The nickel price is expected to remain within a range [92]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Investment Logic**: The impact of sanctions on crude oil has been fully priced in, and the pressure of oversupply remains [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Investment Logic and Trading Strategy**: Each product has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. For example, asphalt has no positive cost support and weakening supply - demand on the margin; PVC is in a weak and volatile state; glass prices are rising due to improved sales and production [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The trading strategies for each product vary, including shorting, reducing long positions, and waiting and seeing [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the varieties in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "oscillating", including PX, PTA, short - fiber, methanol, urea, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, and caustic soda. Some are rated as "oscillating weakly", such as crude oil, pure benzene, and styrene. Others are rated as "oscillating downward", like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil [9][17][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical support for crude oil shows signs of weakening. If there is no further reduction in supply, oil prices will return to a weak supply - demand situation. The chemical sector is waiting for more guidance. The bullish power of styrene is gradually brewing, but it still faces pressure from high inventory and new installations. The strong pattern of PTA may change after the meeting of the Price Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Overall, the energy and chemical industry is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term, waiting for the geopolitical situation to calm down [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about Russian oil supply have eased, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil has weakened. The marginal geopolitical risk has decreased. The API data shows a decline in US crude oil inventories last week, but the overseas supply pressure still persists. If geopolitical concerns continue to ease, oil prices will return to a weak state [9] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, and the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended. After the sharp rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, which may put pressure on asphalt futures prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the over - valuation premium of asphalt is starting to fall [9][10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel oil may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: After the rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, driving fuel oil prices down. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as sanctions on Russia, and its fundamentals face challenges such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy [12] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas disturbances will increase after November, and methanol is viewed with oscillation. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the methanol futures price oscillated and declined. The high port inventory still has a suppressing effect in the short term, but considering the high probability of Iranian disturbances approaching winter, methanol still has value for low - buying [29] Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has ebbed, and it is viewed with continuous pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the market sentiment weakened, and the spot downstream transactions were cautious. Urea returned to the fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate and consolidate [30] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the sentiment of related varieties, but the fundamentals are under pressure and the elasticity is limited. - **Main Logic**: The cost side oscillates without a clear direction. The supply of coal - based MEG is high, and the supply pressure in November is still large, leading to a significant inventory build - up from November to December [20] PX - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment fermentation and cost game, pay attention to the conference resolution. - **Main Logic**: The concern about Russian oil supply has eased, and the medium - and long - term oil prices still face surplus pressure, causing the cost support to be insufficient in the short term. The PX supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the bottom support of PXN has increased. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [13][14] PTA - **Viewpoint**: The cost has fallen and failed to resonate with the sentiment. Pay attention to the subsequent situation of the conference. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is insufficient in the short term due to the easing of concerns about Russian oil supply. The downstream production and sales have turned cold. The PTA price is expected to oscillate under the game between cost and the fermentation of the conference news [14][16] Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the upstream sentiment fermentation, and there is no pressure on its own inventory. - **Main Logic**: After the slowdown in price increase, the production and sales of polyester short - fiber have become dull. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is disturbed. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [24][25] Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The cost support has weakened, pay attention to the conference results. - **Main Logic**: The market is digesting the impact of anti - involution on upstream polyester raw materials. The oil price has turned down again, and the polyester bottle - chip price is expected to oscillate following the cost in the short term [26] Propylene and PP - **Viewpoint**: The spread between propylene and PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates. PP is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The fundamentals of PP support are limited, and the inventory is at a high level. The PL price oscillates, and the spread between PP and PL fluctuates around 500 [33][34] Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The cost - side support confronts the supply - demand pressure, and plastic is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price rebounds, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The plastic's own fundamentals support is limited, and the profit support is also limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [32] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of positive driving factors, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Styrene has followed the decline in oil prices and then rebounded, but the rebound is weak. It is affected by factors such as new installations and weak downstream follow - up [18][19] PVC - **Viewpoint**: It has low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. The production will increase, the downstream demand is only released at low prices, and the export is affected by anti - dumping [36] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the upstream production is high. The demand elasticity of caustic soda is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [37] 4. Summary of Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2242.59, down 0.90%; the commodity 20 index was 2532.38, down 1.19%; the industrial products index was 2238.86, down 0.64% [285] - **Energy Index**: On October 28, 2025, the energy index was 1168.84, with a daily decline of 0.85%, a 5 - day increase of 3.52%, a 1 - month decline of 2.56%, and a year - to - date decline of 4.81% [287]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The preliminary consensus between China and the US boosts market optimism. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract price is expected to range between 87,000 - 89,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton. [3] Aluminum Alloy - Cost support and supply - demand balance drive the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton. [5] Zinc - Zinc prices are supported by macro - level interest - rate cut expectations and LME squeeze risks. However, the supply is relatively loose, and the price may oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply logic. The main contract is expected to range from 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton. [9] Tin - Strong supply fundamentals support the tin price to oscillate strongly. Future trends depend on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar. [11] Nickel - Macro - level sentiment weakens slightly, but cost support exists. With inventory accumulation, the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. [13] Stainless Steel - The policy is stable, demand during the peak season is weak, and supply pressure may increase. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. [14] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals have improved, with a supply - demand gap during the peak season. The short - term price is expected to be strong, with the main focus on whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton and 85,000 yuan/ton. [17] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.35% to 87,905 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 9.22% to 3,975 yuan/ton. [1] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, while imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. [1] Weekly Fundamental Data - The import copper concentrate index decreased by 4.22% to - 42.70 dollars/ton, and domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 67.81 million tons. [1] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 1.03% to 13.46 million tons, and COMEX inventory decreased by 0.06% to 34.77 million short tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 21,160 yuan/ton. The alumina prices in Shandong, Guangxi, and Guizhou decreased. [3] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. [3] Weekly Fundamental Data - The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.37% to 53.70%, and the aluminum foil开工率 decreased by 0.55% to 71.90%. [3] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 0.77% to 46.6 million tons. [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increased. [5] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons. [5] Weekly Fundamental Data - The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 increased by 7.73% to 57.54%. [5] Daily Fundamental Data - The daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan decreased by 0.20% to 33,257 tons. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.27% to 22,270 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 5,294 yuan/ton. [9] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons. [9] Weekly Fundamental Data - The galvanizing开工率 decreased by 0.57% to 57.48%. [9] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 4.86% to 3.5 million tons. [9] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.28% to 284,300 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 8.14% to - 14,746.45 yuan/ton. [11] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons. [11] Inventory Data - SHEF inventory increased by 1.32% to 5,766 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.69% to 6,828 tons. [11] Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.734% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 18.314% to - 898 yuan/ton. [13] Production and Inventory Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons. [13] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.38% to 12,950 yuan/ton. [14] Raw Material Prices - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.22% to 927 yuan/nickel point. [14] Monthly Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons. [14] Weekly Fundamental Data - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.37% to 49.49 million tons. [14] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.55% to 78,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 2.10% to 825 dollars/ton. [17] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons. [17] Inventory Data - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 84,539 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 15.29% to 60,998 tons. [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.49%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Rebar demand continued its seasonal recovery, but supply also increased, and the fundamentals did not improve. There was significant pressure to reduce inventory, and steel prices were still prone to downward pressure. The relatively positive factors were cost support and production - restriction disturbances. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.85%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coils remained, and there were concerns about demand. The fundamentals did not improve substantially, and prices continued to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors were cost support and production - restriction disturbances. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore showed a strong trend, with a daily increase of 1.93%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, market sentiment improved, and iron ore prices rebounded from the low level. However, ore supply remained at a high level, while demand continued to weaken. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of iron ore were not good, and high - valued ore prices were prone to downward pressure. It is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - The central bank will implement a one - time personal credit relief policy at the beginning of 2026, which is expected to help stabilize the real estate market. These measures will have a positive impact on improving market liquidity and residents' housing purchase ability, and are conducive to the recovery of the real estate market's expectations [6]. - In the first three quarters, the national investment in water conservancy construction reached 879.79 billion yuan. The Ministry of Water Resources promoted the construction of water conservancy infrastructure [7]. - According to the latest production schedule report of three major white - goods products, the total planned production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in November 2025 was 28.47 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. Specifically, the planned production volume of household air conditioners in November was 12.76 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.7%; that of refrigerators was 7.78 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; and that of washing machines was 7.93 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,190, 3,150, and 3,249 respectively, with price changes of 10, 10, and 15. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,340, 3,240, and 3,360 respectively, with price changes of 10, 20, and 10. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 with a change of 20, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 with no change. The coil - rebar price difference was 150 with no change, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,030 with a change of 10 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 797 with a change of 4, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 823 with a change of 5, the sea freight from Australia was 9.54 with a change of - 0.15, the sea freight from Brazil was 22.61 with a change of - 0.32, the SGX swap price (current month) was 105.66 with a change of 0.46, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 106.50 with a change of 1.35 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,091, with a daily increase of 0.49%. The trading volume was 1,333,406 with a decrease of 362,795, and the open interest was 1,930,357 with a decrease of 22,644 [13]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,305, with a daily increase of 0.85%. The trading volume was 504,315 with a decrease of 91,619, and the open interest was 1,473,797 with a decrease of 8,933 [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 792.5, with a daily increase of 1.93%. The trading volume was 330,083 with a decrease of 33,211, and the open interest was 548,944 with a decrease of 9,902 [13]. 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, and inventory was relatively high. Although demand continued to improve seasonally, it was still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the peak season might be lackluster. The fundamentals did not improve, and there was great pressure to reduce inventory. Steel prices were still prone to downward pressure. With cost support and production - restriction disturbances, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - For hot - rolled coils, the supply - demand pattern improved slightly, and inventory decreased again. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly by 0.62 tons and remained at a high level this year, and inventory was high, so the supply pressure continued to suppress steel prices. Although demand was okay, there were concerns about the main downstream cold - rolled production and external demand. The fundamentals did not improve substantially, and prices continued to be under pressure. With cost support and production - restriction disturbances, it is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. Steel mill production weakened, and ore consumption continued to decline. The supply of iron ore remained at a high level, with both domestic port arrivals and miner shipments at high levels this year. Although market sentiment improved and ore prices rebounded from the low level, the high - valued ore prices were prone to downward pressure due to the strong supply and weak demand. It is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [38].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: October 28, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The ferroalloy market is currently oscillating, with the upward momentum gradually weakening after two consecutive days of doji candlesticks at the close. The recent rise in ferroalloy prices has been mainly driven by short - covering, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure levels [4]. - The ferroalloy market is facing several core contradictions, including the contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, the challenge to cost support, and the contradiction between the expectation of anti - involution and weak reality. Overall, although supported by coking coal prices, the fundamentals are insufficient to support a significant upward movement, and the upside space is limited [5][7]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.84% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.3%. For ferromanganese, the monthly price range forecast is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.93% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.3% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price declines, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. Market Review - The ferroalloy market has been oscillating, and the upward movement has been driven by short - covering. The upward momentum is weakening, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure [4]. Core Contradictions - **High Inventory and Weak Demand**: Ferroalloy production profits are declining, and there is little expectation of further production increases. However, downstream demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, and the inventory of five major steel products is increasing. The inventory of ferromanganese enterprises is at a five - year high, with a month - on - month increase of 11.8%, indicating high inventory pressure [5]. - **Cost Support Challenge**: Although the prices of semi - coke, electricity, and manganese ore are stable, the pattern of high supply and weak demand in the ferroalloy market remains unchanged, challenging the effectiveness of cost support. However, the tight supply of coking coal, stricter environmental inspections, and political factors in Mongolia have led to a significant increase in coking coal prices, providing short - term support for ferroalloy prices [5]. - **Contradiction between Expectation and Reality**: The anti - involution sentiment still lingers in the market, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. However, the lack of substantial actions increases the risk of price reversals after reaching highs. The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped below 50%, increasing the risk of negative feedback in the black market, which further weakens the already weak fundamentals of steel and ferroalloy. After the Fourth Plenary Session, there was no unexpected total stimulus or strong real - estate stimulus, providing limited support for the strong rebound of the cycle and real - estate chains [5][7]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated market concerns about Sino - US relations; the US CPI inflation data in September was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", proposing a capacity replacement ratio of no less than 1.5:1 for iron - making and steel - making in each province [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The steel market has failed to meet peak - season expectations, with a significant decline in steel mill profitability and increasing negative feedback pressure, leading to a continuous decline in hot - metal production; Tangshan plans to implement a 30% blast - furnace production restriction for four days from October 27 - 31, reducing the demand for ferroalloys; from January to September, national real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, and various real - estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, sales area, and sales volume also showed significant declines [8]. Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: The daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts compared to previous days and weeks [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Similar to silicon iron, the daily data includes basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts, with corresponding changes [10][11]. Seasonal Charts - The report provides multiple seasonal charts, including those for silicon iron and silicon manganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, which can help analyze the historical patterns and trends of these factors [12][14][25][35]

Group 1 - Ethylene glycol prices have been under pressure due to multiple negative factors including a slowdown in coal price increases, a significant drop in crude oil prices, and insufficient downstream demand, leading to a decline in prices approaching the low points of the first half of the year [1] - Since late October, there has been a marginal improvement in terminal orders, which has driven polyester destocking, alongside a rebound in crude oil and coal prices, indicating a potential bottoming out of ethylene glycol prices [1][4] - The new expansion cycle for ethylene glycol is beginning, which is expected to increase supply pressure and may limit the rebound potential of prices [5] Group 2 - The production processes for ethylene glycol are primarily based on petroleum and coal, which together account for over 80% of domestic production capacity, making the price trends of crude oil and coal significantly impactful on ethylene glycol prices [2] - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased sanctions against Russia have led to a strong rebound in international oil prices, with significant implications for the global oil supply [2] - Coal prices have also strengthened due to production limitations in major coal-producing regions and increased demand from non-electric sectors, particularly the chemical industry, which has supported coal price increases [3] Group 3 - Since mid-October, the rebound in energy prices has boosted market confidence, leading to an increase in weaving enterprises' new order indices and overall operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces [4] - The average operating rate for polyester is expected to remain at 91.5% in October and increase to 90.5% in November, which is significantly better than previous market expectations [4] - The ethylene glycol market is facing long-term supply pressure due to new production capacities coming online, with an estimated 1 million tons of new capacity expected to be added in the next three years [5][6] Group 4 - Ethylene glycol production profits are currently at a relatively high level due to lower raw material costs and improvements in production efficiency, which have led to increased production rates [6] - Domestic coal-based ethylene glycol operating rates have risen significantly, indicating a recovery in production activity [6] - The import supply of ethylene glycol remains ample, with expectations of high import volumes in the fourth quarter, contributing to a continued loose supply environment [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production schedule is increasing, and it is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8855 - 9075 [3][6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production schedule will increase in the short term and is expected to回调 in the medium term. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components will decrease in the short term and is expected to recover in the medium term. Overall, the demand shows a continuous recovery trend, and the cost support is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 53655 - 55345 [7][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week. The demand was 98,000 tons, with the polysilicon inventory at 254,000 tons, silicon wafers and battery cells in a loss state, and components profitable. The organic silicon inventory was 55,100 tons, with a production profit of -454 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 70.05%, which was flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 75,300 tons, and the import loss was 276 yuan/ton. The cost support in the dry season has increased [6]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 335 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 559,000 tons, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 167,700 tons, a 0.17% decrease. The main port inventory was 123,000 tons, a 2.50% increase [6][15]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The expected production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month. The silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase from the previous week, but currently in a loss state. The battery cell production was in a loss state, and the component production was profitable. The average cost of N-type polysilicon was 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the price of N-type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -1520 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a historical high [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is decreasing [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 0.84%. Spot prices of different types of silicon remained unchanged. The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.53%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.18%. The main port inventory increased by 2.50%. The weekly sample enterprise production increased by 3.36%, and the production and operating rates in different regions showed different changes [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of various contracts increased, with increases ranging from 3.09% to 5.54%. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends. The monthly supply of polysilicon in China decreased by 1.29%, the export volume decreased by 30.00%, the consumption volume increased by 6.62%, and the import volume increased by 30.00%. The component production was profitable, and the domestic and European inventories decreased [17]. 3.3 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon showed different trends over time [19][20]. - The price and basis of polysilicon also showed different trends over time [22][23]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in different regions and at ports showed different trends over time [25][26]. - The polysilicon inventory also showed different trends over time [17]. 3.5 Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of industrial silicon sample enterprises in different regions and the overall production showed different trends over time [29][30]. - The monthly production of industrial silicon by specification also showed different trends over time [31]. 3.6 Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang's oxygenated 553 silicon showed different trends over time [36][37]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 3.7.1 Industrial Silicon - The weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon showed different trends over time [38][39]. - The monthly supply - demand balance also showed different trends over time, with different values for actual consumption, export, import, and other items [41][42]. 3.7.2 Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends over time, with different values for consumption, export, import, and supply [67][68]. 3.8 Downstream Market Trends 3.8.1 Organic Silicon - The production capacity utilization rate, profit, cost, and production of DMC in organic silicon showed different trends over time [44][45]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 also showed different trends over time [46][47]. - The import, export, and inventory of DMC also showed different trends over time [51][52]. 3.8.2 Aluminum Alloy - The waste aluminum recycling volume, social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, and import - export situation of Chinese unforged aluminum alloy showed different trends over time [54][55]. - The production, inventory, and operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots also showed different trends over time [57][58]. - The production and sales of automobiles and the export of aluminum alloy wheels also showed different trends over time [59][60]. 3.8.3 Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and demand of polysilicon showed different trends over time [64][65]. - The price, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers also showed different trends over time [70][71]. - The price, production, inventory, and export of battery cells showed different trends over time [73][74]. - The price, production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic components also showed different trends over time [76][77]. - The prices and import - export volumes of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coatings, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and soldering tapes showed different trends over time [79][80].

Report Summary Key Points of Each Product Steel Products - **Rebar**: On October 27, domestic steel prices mostly rose, with the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities reaching 3234 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to positive macro - expectations, potential balance between supply and demand, and cost support, short - term steel prices may fluctuate upward [1]. - **Iron Ore**: From October 20 - 26, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased. Considering supply, demand, inventory, and macro factors, short - term iron ore prices may fluctuate upward [4]. - **Coke**: The average national ton - coke profit is - 41 yuan/ton. With supply weakening due to cost pressure and demand slightly declining, but with relatively strong iron - water production and cost support, the coke market will fluctuate upward [5]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: Iraq's oil exports are 3.6 million barrels per day. The market is worried about OPEC supply. With upcoming macro - events and sanctions on Russia under observation, oil prices are likely to fluctuate upward this week, being in a stage of short - term geopolitical bullishness versus long - term supply - demand bearishness [2]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: On October 27, the national pig price generally rose. With improved consumption due to cooling and reduced end - of - month slaughter pressure, short - term prices are expected to be strong. Pig futures prices have rebounded, but the upward momentum may be limited [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil increased. With concerns about the B50 plan and weakening demand while production increases, palm oil prices will face downward pressure in the short term [7]. - **Soybean**: Imported soybean prices are stable, and domestic demand offsets trade - tension pressure, with short - term soybean futures (bean two) stabilizing. Domestic new - season soybeans are strong, with a bullish market sentiment [8]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: The market believes the probability of a 10 - month interest rate cut is 97%. Silver is long - term bullish but short - term downward - fluctuating, with limited downward space [9]. - **Gold**: The weakening of risk - aversion sentiment has led to a significant correction in gold prices. The expected interest rate cut has limited impact. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [9]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations by the central bank is a bullish factor for the bond market. However, due to liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, bond market operations are more difficult, with a mid - term slightly bullish outlook [10]. Chemical Products - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has high production, stable demand, and a slight increase in port inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 2245 [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is stable, with stable production, general demand, and a slight increase in inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with support at 1235 [12]. - **Plastic**: LLDPE supply is expected to remain high, while downstream demand is increasing. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, with support at 7000 [13]. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple commodities, including steel, energy, agricultural products, precious metals, financial products, and chemical products. It assesses each commodity's supply, demand, inventory, and macro - factors to predict their short - and medium - term price trends, providing investment suggestions such as short - term trading strategies and risk - management advice. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the supply pressure of domestic polyethylene remained, with total production increasing year-on-year and decreasing month-on-month, and LLDPE showing double growth. The inventory was differentiated between upstream and downstream, with production enterprise inventory expanding and social inventory decreasing but with slow digestion. Import prices were differentiated, the quantity decreased, and the profit margins varied greatly. Downstream demand recovered less than expected, cost support was limited, and profits were under pressure. The market was dominated by supply and demand [4]. - In October, the supply pressure of domestic polyethylene is expected to increase, while demand may experience moderate growth with limited increase due to macro - economic uncertainties. The inventory pressure may ease from mid - to late October, and the market is likely to show a weak and volatile trend, and the specific trend depends on downstream demand release and new capacity commissioning progress [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - **Supply Pressure in September and October**: In September, the total domestic polyethylene production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, with LLDPE showing double growth. The total production in September was 270,648 tons, a decrease of 12,067 tons from the previous month and an increase of 41,672 tons from the same period last year. LLDPE production in September was 125,520 tons, an increase of 653 tons from the previous month and 27,387 tons from the same period last year. In October, the supply pressure is expected to increase due to fewer planned maintenance of devices, restart of previously maintained devices, and new capacity commissioning [7][9]. - **Inventory Situation**: In late September, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises increased, with the total reaching 458,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,300 tons. The inventory of coal - based enterprises was 68,300 tons, and that of two - oil enterprises was 390,000 tons. The social inventory decreased, with the total at 534,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27,200 tons. It is expected that the inventory pressure may ease from mid - to late October [12][13][14]. - **Import Situation**: In September, the import prices of polyethylene were regionally differentiated, with most major regions' LLDPE prices falling month - on - month. The import quantity continued to decline, with the import volume in August being 950,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 156,900 tons. The import profit margins of different varieties varied significantly [16][17][18]. Demand Side - **Demand in September**: In September, the overall downstream开工率 of polyethylene was 42.57%, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. The raw material inventory of downstream enterprises increased, indicating increased raw material stocking willingness. However, the overall demand intensity did not meet expectations, and the market was in a weak balance [21][22]. - **Demand Outlook in October**: In October, the demand is in the traditional peak season with release potential, such as increased demand for packaging films due to Double Eleven and for agricultural films due to cooling in the north. But due to macro - economic uncertainties, downstream enterprises are cautious, and demand is expected to grow moderately with limited increase [5][23]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: In September, the cost of oil - based polyethylene decreased month - on - month to 7,548.04 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.64 yuan/ton. The cost of coal - based polyethylene increased slightly to 6,410.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.19 yuan/ton [26][27]. - **Profit**: In September, the profits of both oil - based and coal - based polyethylene production enterprises declined. The profit of oil - based enterprises was - 289.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.71 yuan/ton, and the profit of coal - based enterprises was 764.53 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15.25 yuan/ton [28]. - **Price Difference**: In September, the price difference between polyethylene and related varieties was differentiated. The average price difference between PE - PVC:01 contract was 2,298.82 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.44 yuan/ton, while the average price difference between PE - PP:01 contract was 275.23 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15.25 yuan/ton [29]. Summary - In September, the domestic polyethylene market was in a weak balance. Supply pressure remained, inventory was differentiated, import quantity decreased, downstream demand recovered moderately, cost support was limited, and profits were under pressure. The market was mainly dominated by supply and demand [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The preliminary consensus between China and the US boosts market optimism, and copper prices hit a new high this year. In the short - term, the negotiation rhythm will drive trading. The 9 - month CPI further consolidates the expectation of interest rate cuts in October, with 2 possible cuts this year and the Fed stopping balance - sheet reduction. - Tight copper ore supply supports the price bottom. If by - product prices like sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may cut production. Downstream demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of copper prices, while short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the support around 86,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot market trading became more active. Supply pressure is significant due to high domestic operating capacity and an open import window. Demand is weak, and the full - caliber inventory increased by 64,000 tons last week. With the end of the rainy season in Guinea, cost support from the ore end is weakening. Short - term alumina prices will be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum prices were strong, breaking through 21,300 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is mixed, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance. Supply of ingots is restricted by the high direct - supply ratio of molten aluminum, and demand shows resilience in the peak season. Aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 626,000 tons on October 28. Short - term Shanghai aluminum will maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices oscillated strongly, with cost support becoming more prominent. Tight scrap aluminum supply pushed up procurement costs, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance. Supply is restricted by raw - material circulation and policy uncertainty, and demand shows stable resilience. Inventory is decreasing. Short - term ADC12 prices will maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The preliminary consensus between China and the US warms the macro - atmosphere, and zinc prices oscillated strongly. The supply - side logic of loose supply has spread from zinc ore to zinc ingots, and subsequent supply growth may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. Demand is stable, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, supporting zinc prices. The export window for zinc ingots is intermittently open. Short - term zinc prices have support at the bottom, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. The main contract should refer to 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees remain low. In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased month - on - month. The change in Myanmar's tax method is expected to limit the improvement of tin ore supply this year. Demand is still weak, and although AI and the photovoltaic industry drive some consumption, it cannot make up for the decline in traditional consumption. Tin prices will oscillate strongly, and the follow - up depends on macro - changes and Myanmar's supply recovery [10]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market oscillated, and refined nickel prices rose slightly. Overseas, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising; domestically, the 14th Five - Year Plan brings policy expectations. Refined nickel production remains high. Ore prices are firm, but nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and industry profits are shrinking. Stainless steel demand is weak, while downstream ternary materials still have restocking needs. Inventory is accumulating. Short - term prices will oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were slightly adjusted down. Overseas, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising; domestically, policies are mainly for stability. Nickel ore prices are firm, but nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and chromium - iron markets are weak. Supply pressure will increase in October, and demand improvement is not obvious. Social inventory is decreasing slowly. Short - term prices will oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures were strong, with the main contract LC2601 rising 2.53% to 81,900 yuan/ton. After entering the peak season, there is a supply - demand gap, which is expected to widen in October. Production is increasing, mainly from new salt - lake projects and increased lithium - spodumene subcontracting. Downstream demand is optimistic, and raw - material inventory is decreasing. Short - term prices will run strongly, with the upper limit first observing the capital performance around 82,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton, and then 85,000 yuan/ton if it breaks through [16]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 2.08% to 88,520 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 15.30% to 4,379 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased to - 25.97 dollars/ton. The import profit and loss improved to - 786 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a 4.31% month - on - month decrease; imports were 334,300 tons, a 26.50% month - on - month increase. The import copper concentrate index decreased by 4.22% to - 42.70 dollars/ton. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 678,100 tons. The electrolytic copper rod - making start - up rate decreased to 61.55%, while the recycled copper rod - making start - up rate increased to 18.29%. Domestic social inventory decreased by 1.13% to 184,500 tons; bonded - area inventory decreased by 5.02% to 92,800 tons; SHFE inventory decreased by 4.94% to 104,800 tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.28% to 136,000 tons; COMEX inventory increased by 0.13% to 348,000 short tons; SHFE warrants increased by 0.92% to 35,400 tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.24% to 21,160 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 0.71% to 2,795 yuan/ton [3]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread remained at - 20 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a 1.74% month - on - month decrease; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a 3.16% month - on - month decrease; imports were 246,800 tons, a 13.57% month - on - month increase; exports were 29,000 tons, a 13.07% month - on - month increase. The aluminum profile start - up rate increased by 0.37% to 53.70%; the aluminum cable start - up rate increased by 0.63% to 64.40%; the aluminum plate - strip start - up rate decreased by 1.47% to 67.00%; the aluminum foil start - up rate decreased by 0.55% to 71.90%; the primary aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 1.03% to 59.00%. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.16% to 626,000 tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.81% to 469,000 tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 3.32% to 1,869 yuan/ton [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 75 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 661,000 tons, a 7.48% month - on - month increase; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 283,000 tons, a 4.43% month - on - month increase; scrap aluminum production was 797,600 tons, an 8.16% month - on - month increase; unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports were 82,200 tons, a 15.77% month - on - month increase; exports were 23,500 tons, a 19.24% month - on - month decrease. The recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 7.73% to 57.54%; the primary aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 4.60% to 56.57%. The recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 0.18% to 54,700 tons. The daily inventory in Foshan increased by 0.23% to 33,323 tons; in Ningbo, it decreased by 1.27% to 13,179 tons; in Wuxi, it decreased by 7.09% to 1,873 tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,210 yuan/ton; the premium remained at - 55 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved to - 5,139 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.34 [8]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread remained unchanged at - 35 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a 4.17% month - on - month decrease; imports were 22,700 tons, an 11.61% month - on - month decrease; exports were 2,500 tons, a 696.78% month - on - month increase. The galvanizing start - up rate decreased to 57.48%; the die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased to 53.13%; the zinc oxide start - up rate decreased to 56.36%. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 1.09% to 163,500 tons; LME inventory decreased by 1.46% to 37,000 tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.57% to 283,500 yuan/ton; the SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 16.67% to 250 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.00% to 143 dollars/ton [10]. Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss worsened by 4.00% to - 16,052.47 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.92 [10]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 16.33% to - 570 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 100.00% to - 200 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 80.00% to - 90 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 400.00% to 350 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a 15.13% month - on - month decrease; SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a 31.71% month - on - month decrease; refined tin imports were 1,269 tons, a 2.08% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1,748 tons, a 6.59% month - on - month increase; Indonesian refined tin exports were 4,800 tons, a 50.00% month - on - month increase. The SMM refined tin average start - up rate decreased by 31.77% to 43.60%; the SMM solder enterprise start - up rate increased by 2.19% to 74.80%. The average price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan increased by 0.59% to 271,500 yuan/ton; the Yunnan 40% tin concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton [10]. Inventory Change - SHEF weekly inventory increased by 1.32% to 5,766 tons; social inventory decreased by 2.69% to 6,828 tons; SHEF daily warrants increased by 1.53% to 5,652 tons; LME daily inventory decreased by 0.91% to 2,725 tons [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.12% to 123,050 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel price increased by 0.08% to 124,300 yuan/ton; the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 3.92% to 2,450 yuan/ton; 1 imported nickel price increased by 0.16% to 122,250 yuan/ton; the 1 imported nickel premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased to - 194 dollars/ton. The futures import profit and loss improved by 38.59% to - 759 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.98. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.21% to 929 yuan/nickel point [12]. Production Cost - The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte - produced electrowon nickel decreased by