Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a shock and consolidation manner [3] - Alumina spot prices are expected to gradually peak, and aluminum ingot prices are expected to be strong in the short - term range, focusing on the inventory - consumption trend [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a predicted impact on building steel production of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January. The daily output affected during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, with prices hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to move down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingot - Macroscopically, domestic "anti - involution" policies drove industrial metals up, and the long - term tone of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth" remains unchanged, while overseas macro uncertainties still exist [2] - Some enterprises will start maintenance in late July, which may lead to a decline in the local alumina operating capacity. Some electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects in the southwest region are about to be put into production, driving up the demand for alumina in the region. However, from a national perspective, alumina supply is still relatively loose, and the weekly inventory of alumina in national electrolytic aluminum plants has increased by about 25,800 tons this week, which is expected to put pressure on the spot price [3] - On July 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 498,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from last Thursday and a decrease of 3,000 tons from last Monday. The reduction of aluminum rods at the end of the month led to a decrease in the expected proportion of aluminum water in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and a significant increase in the supply of aluminum ingots. The increase in arrivals became the core driver of inventory accumulation in the off - season, but the recent inventory performance has been fluctuating [3] - The off - season inventory fluctuates, and the pressure on the demand side in the off - season limits the upward space. With the increase in macro - risk pricing, attention should be paid to the promotion of domestic policies. Driven by short - term policies, metal prices have risen. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term range, and follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, with strong expectations prevailing. The policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel has boosted market sentiment, but the demand is in a seasonal weak period, and the inventory is expected to rise further [2]. - For iron ore, although it is in the consumption off - season and the iron - water output is expected to decline, the rising prices of related products such as rebar, coking coal, and glass will support the iron - ore price in the short term, and the decline in port inventory also provides support [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Policy and Market Sentiment**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries, which has boosted market sentiment and led to a pulsed rise in futures prices [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The output of rebar decreased last week, the factory inventory decreased, the social inventory continued to rise, and the total inventory increased. The apparent demand decreased month - on - month, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The demand for the plate sector is better than that for building materials. In the summer high - temperature season, demand will weaken further, and inventory is expected to rise [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen sharply, continuing the previous medium - term upward trend and showing strong short - term performance [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude. After adjustment, consider buying on dips, and be cautious about chasing high prices [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees, with the hot - rolled coil futures closing price rising by 3.60% week - on - week and the spot price rising by 3.64% [2]. - **Production**: The national building - material steel mill rebar output decreased by 3.51% week - on - week, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 0.62% week - on - week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97% week - on - week, and the factory inventory decreased by 4.30% week - on - week; the social inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.80% week - on - week, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.64% week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and the iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.10% week - on - week last week. However, it is in the consumption off - season, and the iron - water output is expected to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports the futures price, but the port trade - ore inventory is relatively high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen strongly, breaking through the suppression of multiple resistance levels above [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing high prices, and wait patiently for the price to pull back before buying on dips [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron - ore spot and futures prices have increased, with the DCE iron - ore main - contract settlement price rising by 5.54% week - on - week [4]. - **Shipment**: The Australian iron - ore shipment decreased by 10.51% week - on - week, and the Brazilian iron - ore shipment increased by 17.37% week - on - week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 0.14% week - on - week, and the port trade - ore inventory decreased by 0.50% week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2511.8 million tons, a decrease of 371.4 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2371.2 million tons, a decrease of 290.9 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1389.2 million tons, an increase of 241.3 million tons month - on - month [7]. - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the global iron - ore shipment volume was 3109.1 million tons, an increase of 122.0 million tons month - on - month. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2552.0 million tons, a decrease of 6.8 million tons month - on - month [7]. - On July 21st, the China Coking Industry Association Market Committee decided to raise the price of tamping wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and the price of tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton for steel - mill customers starting from July 22nd [7]. - In the third week of July 2025, Brazil's cumulative iron - ore loading volume was 2466.24 million tons, with a daily average loading volume of 176.16 million tons/day, a 3.21% increase compared to the same period last year [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term LLDP E continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. The daily K - line should focus on the support around 7160 and the resistance around 7260. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene is 7215 yuan/ton, with a change of 1. The closing price of the January contract is 7235 yuan/ton, up 10; the closing price of the May contract is 7209 yuan/ton, up 9; the closing price of the September contract is 7215 yuan/ton, up 1. [2] - The trading volume is 181,546 hands, down 22,735; the open interest is 434,235 hands, down 2621. [2] - The spread between the January and May contracts is 26. [2] - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 359,889 hands, up 1289; the short position is 401,569 hands, down 607; the net long position is - 41,680 hands, up 1896. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7198.7 yuan/ton, down 7.39; in East China, it is 7301.22 yuan/ton, down 17.8. [2] 3.3 Basis - The basis is - 16.3, down 8.39. [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 62.75 US dollars/barrel, down 0.13; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 581.38 US dollars/ton, down 2.37. [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 77.79%, down 1.67. [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 48.07%, down 0.37; the operating rate of PE pipes is 28%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 12.63%, up 0.54. [2] 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 11.41%, down 0.3; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.54%, unchanged. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.05%, up 0.04; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.06%, up 0.04. [2] 3.8 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, China's total polyethylene production was 609,100 tons, up 0.52% from last week. [2] - From July 4th to 10th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.18% compared with the previous period. [2] - As of July 16th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,300 tons, up 7.34% from the previous period; as of July 11th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 536,600 tons, up 3.68% from the previous period. [2] 3.9 Viewpoint Summary - In the short term, the supply - demand situation of LLDPE remains weak, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. [2] - In July, there are many PE maintenance devices. This week, the production and capacity utilization rate are expected to decline. [2] - ExxonMobil and Jilin Petrochemical's new devices have production expectations, which may increase the industry supply pressure in the medium - to - long term. [2] - The downstream off - season continues, and the downstream operating rate is expected to maintain a narrow downward trend. [2] - Recently, international oil prices have been weak, weakening cost support. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rebar market is currently facing weak supply and demand dynamics, with a slight accumulation of inventory but still at low levels, leading to a forecast of narrow range trading in the short term [1][3]. Group 1: Production and Inventory Data - As of July 17, the national rebar production decreased by 76,000 tons week-on-week to 2.0906 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 144,100 tons [1]. - Social inventory increased by 106,700 tons week-on-week to 3.7016 million tons, but decreased by 208,410 tons year-on-year [1]. - Factory inventory decreased by 77,800 tons week-on-week to 1.731 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 189,000 tons [1]. - Rebar apparent consumption fell by 153,300 tons to 2.0617 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 252,700 tons [1]. Group 2: Demand and Market Conditions - The construction sector is currently in a traditional off-season, with seasonal maintenance increasing at steel mills, leading to a decline in rebar production [1]. - The availability of funds for engineering projects remains low, resulting in continued weak terminal demand and sluggish market transactions [1]. - The average daily transaction volume of construction materials nationwide from Monday to Wednesday was 93,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6.15% [2]. - In the real estate sector, fixed asset investment from January to June grew by 2.8% year-on-year, with a decline in real estate investment by 11.2% [2]. Group 3: Export Performance - Despite domestic demand weakness, steel exports remained strong, with 58.15 million tons exported from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [2]. - In June alone, exports reached 9.68 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.7%, which significantly compensates for the lack of domestic demand [2].

Market Overview - On Tuesday evening, rebar futures contract 10 experienced weak fluctuations, closing at 3107, down 0.45% [1] Fundamental Summary - Starting from July 16 at 9:30 AM, Shougang Changzhi has uniformly lowered the prices of rebar and ribbed steel by 20 CNY/ton, and for wire rod and line materials by 30 CNY/ton, while other varieties remain stable [2] - As of the week ending July 10, rebar production, social inventory, and apparent demand have shifted from increase to decrease, while factory inventory has shifted from decrease to increase. Rebar production was 2.1666 million tons, a decrease of 44,200 tons week-on-week, down 2%; apparent demand was 2.215 million tons, a decrease of 33,700 tons week-on-week, down 1.50% [2] - On July 15, domestic steel market prices showed mixed trends, with Tangshan Qian'an's ordinary square billet ex-factory price down 10 CNY, reported at 2950 CNY/ton. One steel mill raised the ex-factory price of construction steel by 50-80 CNY/ton. The average price of rebar in major cities nationwide was 3287 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY from the previous trading day [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guantong Futures stated that under the dual weakness of supply and demand, along with gradually cooling market sentiment, rebar prices are significantly under pressure, with limited rebound potential, and are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term [3] - Ruida Futures noted that in the macro aspect, fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% in the first half of the year, with real estate development investment declining by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.8% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8%. In terms of supply and demand, weekly rebar production was adjusted downwards, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.49%; factory inventory increased while social inventory decreased, with total inventory at 5.4037 million tons showing a slight decline again, and apparent demand down by 33,700 tons. Overall, the orderly exit of backward production capacity driven by anti-involution still supports the steel market, but weak real estate data drags down steel prices. Technically, the MACD indicator for RB2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downwards, with green bars expanding. In terms of operations, short-term trading is suggested in the 3140-3090 range, with attention to risk control [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Xinjiang Bayi Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., anticipates a net loss for the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -6.50 billion to -7.00 billion yuan, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [3]. - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of -6.50 billion to -7.00 billion yuan, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of -6.60 billion to -7.10 billion yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Previous Year Comparison - In the same period last year, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.20 billion yuan and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of -7.27 billion yuan [5]. - The earnings per share for the previous year was -0.466 yuan [6]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Decline - The steel industry is facing a "double weakness" in supply and demand, with slow market activation and lower-than-expected market demand affecting sales performance [7]. - The company is experiencing low steel prices, underutilization of production capacity, and a decrease in the purchase-sale price difference, which compresses profit margins [7]. - The company plans to enhance core competitiveness, improve operational conditions, control costs, and optimize resource allocation to boost profitability [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.16%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, rebar shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have not improved. Steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are low inventory and cost support from strong raw materials. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a stable and fluctuating trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil was running at a high level with a daily increase of 0.09%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, and the fundamentals are weakly stable with a slight increase in inventory. However, the expected policy benefits are fermenting, and combined with strong raw materials, the price of hot - rolled coil maintains a relatively strong operation. Be wary of the fermentation of overseas tariff risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.26%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. Currently, the expected policy benefits have improved market sentiment, driving the iron ore price back to a high level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of iron ore have not changed substantially, and the valuation has risen to a relatively high level. It is expected that the iron ore price will turn into a high - level fluctuating and consolidating trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.7%. In June, imports, exports, and exports all achieved positive year - on - year growth, and the growth rates were rising [6]. - At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In the first half of the year, net cash injection was 363.3 billion yuan. The balance of local and foreign currency loans at the end of June was 272.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The balance of RMB loans at the end of the month was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan [7]. - In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, China imported 470,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; from January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%. In June, China imported 105.948 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 7.817 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 8.0%; from January to June, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 592.205 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,180, 3,190, and 3,292 respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 3 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,300, 3,200, and 3,307 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 10, and - 2 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,960 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,110 with an increase of 30. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 120 with an increase of 10, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,070 with a decrease of 40 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 749 with a decrease of 1, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 702 with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 7.75 with an increase of 0.37, and from Brazil was 19.33 with an increase of 0.92. The SGX swap (current month) was 97.80 with an increase of 0.20, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 98.30 with a decrease of 0.25 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,138, with a daily increase of 0.16%. The highest price was 3,143, the lowest price was 3,122, the trading volume was 1,164,609 with a decrease of 489,936, and the open interest was 2,122,341 with a decrease of 78,184 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,276, with a daily increase of 0.09%. The highest price was 3,281, the lowest price was 3,256, the trading volume was 454,659 with a decrease of 155,211, and the open interest was 1,580,291 with a decrease of 19,457 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 766.5, with a daily increase of 0.26%. The highest price was 769.5, the lowest price was 763.0, the trading volume was 239,244 with a decrease of 121,405, and the open interest was 664,821 with an increase of 2,959 [11]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Both supply and demand have weakened. The output of rebar decreased by 44,200 tons week - on - week due to steel mill conversion, but the supply is still at a relatively high level this year, and the sustainability of production reduction is questionable. The demand for rebar is weakly stable, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 33,700 tons week - on - week, and the high - frequency daily trading volume significantly shrinking. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a stable and fluctuating trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand have weakened. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 50,000 tons week - on - week due to steel mill adjustment, but the supply is still at a high level this year, and the pressure relief is limited. The demand for hot - rolled coil is less resilient, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 18,600 tons week - on - week, and the high - frequency trading volume also shrinking. The price of hot - rolled coil maintains a relatively strong operation, but be wary of the fermentation of overseas tariff risks [37]. - Iron ore: Both supply and demand have weakened. The consumption of iron ore by steel mills has continued to decline, and the arrival of ore at ports has increased significantly week - on - week, but the shipment of miners has continued to decline. It is expected that the iron ore price will turn into a high - level fluctuating and consolidating trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [38].

八一钢铁（600581）公告，公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润-6.5亿元到-7亿 元，预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润-6.6亿元到-7.1亿元。 公司业绩预亏主要原因是钢铁行业整体面临"供需双弱"的局面，市场启动缓慢，市场需求低于预期，叠 加钢材价格低位运行，产能未完全发挥规模效益，购销价差同比下降，进而压缩企业利润空间。 ...

1. Copper Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Macroeconomically, the expected US tariff increase on copper is 50% to be implemented at the end of July. The 232 investigation weakens the logic of LME copper squeezing and US restocking. Fundamentally, there are still contradictions in copper mine supply, and demand has weakened at high copper prices. Global visible inventory, LME inventory, and Chinese social inventory are low, except for COMEX due to US restocking. After the 232 investigation, non - US electrolytic copper shows a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak demand". The negotiation of reciprocal tariffs will also disturb copper prices. The main contract should pay attention to the support level of 78,000 [1]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,615 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 15 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. Other copper prices and premiums also show corresponding changes [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, etc. have decreased to varying degrees [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.56 dollars/ton week - on - week. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and regenerated copper rod changed, and inventories in different regions also changed [1]. 2. Aluminum Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The aluminum price broke through the recent resistance level and reached a new high due to low warehouse receipts and inventory and short - term tightening of spot supply. Fundamentally, the alumina market will remain slightly oversupplied in July - August. The current aluminum price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectation, weak demand, and macro - disturbances, it is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 20,800 [3]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,820 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous day. Alumina prices in different regions also increased slightly. The import profit and loss, inter - month spreads, etc. changed accordingly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month. The operating rates of different aluminum products and inventories in different regions also changed [3]. 3. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected to be in a weak shock, and the main contract is expected to operate between 19,200 - 20,000. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [4]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. Inter - month spreads such as 2511 - 2512 decreased [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.9 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.10 million tons, up 2.30% month - on - month. The operating rates of different types of enterprises and inventories also changed [4]. 4. Zinc Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The zinc ore supply is in a long - term loose trend. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, but the improvement lags behind the ore end. The demand has weakened marginally. The low inventory provides price support, but the domestic social inventory may enter the inventory accumulation cycle. In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loose cycle. The main contract is expected to operate between 21,500 - 23,000. Attention should be paid to the TC growth rate and the rhythm of US tariff policies [8]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 1.08% from the previous day. The import profit and loss, inter - month spreads, etc. changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month. The operating rates of different zinc processing industries changed, and inventories in different regions also changed [8]. 5. Nickel Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The nickel price rebounded, and the macro - sentiment eased. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose. The refined nickel cost support has loosened, and the medium - term supply is still loose, restricting the upward space of the price. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [10]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,600 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous day. The prices and costs of different nickel products and related indicators such as LME 0 - 3, import profit and loss, etc. changed [10]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month, and the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions also changed [10]. 6. Tin Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The actual tin ore supply remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and in the electronic consumption off - season. In the short term, there are large macro - disturbances. Hold the previous high - level short positions and pay attention to changes in US tariff policies [14]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 265,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 160.00% [14]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, etc. changed significantly [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% month - on - month, while SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month - on - month. Import and export volumes of refined tin and other data also changed [14]. 7. Stainless Steel Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The stainless steel market is strong, but the spot trading is light. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose, and the nickel - iron price is weak. The steel mill's production reduction is less than expected, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12,500 - 13,000. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel mill production reduction schedules [15]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The inter - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions also changed [15]. 8. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated narrowly. The macro - situation has uncertainties. The supply of lithium carbonate is relatively sufficient, and the demand is stable but difficult to boost significantly. The inventory is still at a high level. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate between 60,000 - 65,000. Attention should be paid to macro - risks [17]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 63,650 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day. The prices and spreads of different lithium products changed [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2507 - 2509, etc. decreased [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The demand, import, and export volumes, and inventories in different links also changed [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the current contradictions are not significant, and the ore price is rising in an oscillating manner [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Although the steel mill production is weakening and the terminal consumption of ore has decreased but remains at a high level within the year, and the good profitability of steel mills provides strong support for the ore price. The port arrivals have increased month - on - month, but after the end - of - fiscal - year shipment rush, the shipments of miners continue to decrease, the overseas ore supply contracts, and the domestic ore production is weakly stable. The supply side is relatively favorable. The ore demand has certain resilience, and with the optimistic sentiment remaining, the ore price is supported to continue the upward - oscillating trend in the short term. However, the fundamentals of the ore have not improved substantially under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the upside potential should be cautiously optimistic, being alert to the switch of trading logic to the industrial side [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is also oscillating with a slight upward trend. The view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the current contradictions are not significant, and the ore price is rising in an oscillating manner. There are specific explanations for calculating the rise and fall amplitude and definitions of different trends [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Steel mill production is weakening, but ore consumption remains high within the year, and the good profitability of steel mills supports the ore price. Port arrivals increase, but miner shipments decrease, overseas supply contracts, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. The demand has resilience, and the short - term ore price is supported to run with a slight upward trend, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and caution is needed for the upside potential [3].