1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,700 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain volatile. On the supply side, the production of primary lead is under pressure, and the overall production of secondary lead is also facing challenges. On the consumption side, battery consumption is weak, and the inventory of finished batteries continues to accumulate. In terms of trading strategies, considering the weak supply - demand pattern, shorting volatility can be considered [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - **Price and Spread** - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,865 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 1.35%, and the closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,940 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.44%. The price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 2,096.5 with a weekly increase of 3.02% [7] - LME lead basis was - 45.87, a decrease of 1.31 compared to the previous week; the premium of bonded lead remained unchanged at 95; the spot premium of Shanghai 1 lead increased by 20 to 45; the spread between secondary lead and primary lead increased by 75 to - 50 [7] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased by 335 to 275; the cost of near - month to first - continuous inter - period arbitrage was 59.77 [7] - The spot import profit and loss of lead was - 658.93, a decrease of 76.80 compared to the previous week; the 3M import profit and loss of SHFE lead was - 623.95, a decrease of 127.41 compared to the previous week [7] - **Inventory** - SHFE lead warrant inventory increased by 1,452 to 29,418; SHFE total lead inventory increased by 1,233 to 30,584; social inventory increased by 1,600 to 36,100; LME lead inventory decreased by 9,600 to 205,575, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased by 4.00% to 9.06% [7] - **Transaction and Position** - The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 122,859, an increase of 85,430 compared to the previous week, and the position was 56,480, a decrease of 8,714 compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 10,642, an increase of 5,448 compared to the previous week, and the position was 142,000, an increase of 6,194 compared to the previous week [7] 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrate** - The import volume, actual consumption, and domestic output of lead concentrate showed different trends in different years. The inventory of lead concentrate at Lianyungang also fluctuated over time [24] - The import TC and domestic TC of lead concentrate showed certain price ranges. The smelting profit of lead concentrate processing also changed over time [26][27] - The operating rate of lead concentrate showed different levels in different years [28] - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead** - The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead, as well as the production and operating rate of secondary lead, all showed different trends in different years [30] - The by - product output of silver and the price of 1 silver, as well as the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China, also had their own trends [32][33][34] - **Waste Battery and Secondary Lead** - The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost of secondary lead, and the profit and loss of secondary lead all changed over time [35][36][37] - **Import and Export** - The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit and loss of lead, and the export volume of lead ingots showed different trends in different years [39] 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Battery and Terminal - **Battery** - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries, the monthly finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, as well as the export volume of batteries, showed different trends in different years [43] - **Consumption and Terminal** - The actual consumption of lead, the monthly output of automobiles, and the monthly total output of motorcycles showed different trends in different years [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The price is significantly supported by the double reduction in supply and demand, combined with the transmission effect of rising coal prices and photovoltaic industry chain prices. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production reduction expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to rise slightly with small fluctuations. The recent cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for the photovoltaic industry may stimulate polysilicon rush exports in the short term. However, due to the still sluggish demand and huge inventory, the price increase momentum is limited. The market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and the downstream production capacity is accelerating the clearance [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On January 27, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,895 yuan/ton and closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, a change of (-70) yuan/ton or (-0.78)% compared to the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 242,625 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on January 26, 2026, was 13,115 lots, a change of 144 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of January 22, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 556,000 tons, an increase of 0.18% compared to the previous week [1]. - The supply side showed a contraction trend, with the January output decreasing by nearly 20% month-on-month, and the industry operating rate dropping to a historical low [2]. - The demand side: The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 13,800 - 14,000 (0) yuan/ton. The recent cancellation of the photovoltaic VAT export tax rebate policy is expected to increase the short-term demand for polysilicon, and the strong polysilicon exports are expected to boost the demand side of industrial silicon. The operating rate of aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly, and the organic silicon maintained the peak-shifting emission reduction policy. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed a marginal weakening trend, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be mainly stable and weak [2]. Polysilicon - On January 27, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and rose, opening at 51,990 yuan/ton and closing at 51,900 yuan/ton, a change of 0.42% in the closing price compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 41,439 (41,290 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 11,224 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N-type material was 48.00 - 57.00 (-1.50) yuan/kg, and the price of n-type granular silicon was 48.00 - 51.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 33.00, a change of 2.80% month-on-month, the silicon wafer inventory was 26.78GW, a change of 8.07% month-on-month, the weekly polysilicon output was 20,500.00 tons, a change of -4.65% month-on-month, and the silicon wafer output was 10.86GW, a change of 0.28% month-on-month [3]. - In terms of silicon wafers: The price of domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.30 (-0.03) yuan/piece, the price of N-type 210mm was 1.63 (-0.03) yuan/piece, and the price of N-type 210R silicon wafers was 1.40 (-0.03) yuan/piece [3]. - In terms of battery cells: The price of high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half-cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [4][5]. - In terms of components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N-type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N-type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short-term range operation. - Inter - period: None. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short-term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight oscillatory rise in the short term. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is likely to continue range-bound trading due to a combination of factors. Macroscopically, tariff disturbances have weakened, and there are expectations of loose monetary policies. Industrially, the weekly output of rebar has stopped falling and rebounded, reaching around 2 million tons. It is the off - consumption season, with apparent demand declining and inventory turning from decreasing to increasing. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading of the RB2605 contract in the range of 3100 - 3165 yuan/ton [9]. - Given the positive macro expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, the market may be range - bound. It is suggested to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [60]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: As of January 23, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3142 yuan/ton (-21 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3300 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton week - on - week). Rebar production increased to 199.55 tons (+9.25 tons week - on - week), with a year - on - year increase of 25.42 tons. Apparent demand declined to 185.52 tons (-4.82 tons week - on - week), but a year - on - year increase of 68.61 tons. Total rebar inventory was 452.1 tons (+14.03 tons week - on - week), with a year - on - year decrease of 31.11 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, a 0.86 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and an 8.23 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, the US will not impose tariffs on eight European countries, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Domestically, the central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates. In terms of cost, iron ore port inventory reached a new high, and coking coal and coke still have winter storage expectations. Technically, the RB2605 contract continued range - bound trading, with technical support at 3100 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The RB2605 contract first declined and then rebounded this week. It was stronger than the RB2610 contract, with a spread of -46 yuan/ton on the 23rd, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions**: On January 23, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 39487 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43193 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders in the rebar futures contract was 66833 lots, an increase of 38128 lots compared to the previous week [22]. - **Spot Price**: On January 23, the spot price of Grade III 20mm HRB400 rebar in Hangzhou was 3300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3321 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on the 23rd was 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton [28]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream Market**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the spot price of coke remained flat. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, while port inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventory increased [30][35][39]. - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, China's crude steel production decreased year - on - year. The weekly rebar production increased, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly week - on - week, and the electric arc furnace operating rate decreased. Rebar inventory increased [45][48][54]. - **Downstream Demand**: In 2025, real estate development investment, new housing construction area, and infrastructure investment all declined year - on - year [57]. 4. Options Market - Due to the positive macro expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, it is recommended to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [60].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The coking coal market is in a stage of weak supply and demand. The futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the upstream - downstream game. Although there is an increase in production on the supply side and accelerated inventory transfer to downstream, the downstream iron - water production has decreased, and high - price transactions are insufficient, with demand mainly supported by winter storage. There is also a probability of pre - holiday coal mine safety inspections [1]. 3) Summary according to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Coking coal prices opened low and moved lower during the day. The utilization rate of approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 88.47%, a 3.13% increase from the previous period. The daily output of raw coal reached 1.9779 million tons. After the resumption of work, the inventory of coking coal mines decreased significantly, with a weekly decrease of 226,400 tons. Coking enterprises and steel mills increased their inventories by 611,700 tons and 44,700 tons respectively. The downstream iron - water production decreased by 0.47% week - on - week, with a weekly output of 2.2801 million tons. The futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly [1]. Spot Data - In the Shanxi market (Jiexiu), the mainstream price was 1,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal was 1,035 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract was 1,129 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 151 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Data**: From January 9th to January 16th, the coking coal开工率 of 523 domestic sample mines was 88.47%, a 3.13 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The daily output of refined coking coal was 768,500 tons, an increase of 342,000 tons from the previous period [3]. - **Demand Data**: From January 9th to January 16th, the daily output of independent coking enterprises was 634,500 tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous period. The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 467,200 tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous period. The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 1.49 million tons from the previous period [5].

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0%, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% year-on-year [4][14] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7%, while fixed asset investment is forecasted to decline by 3.8%, particularly in real estate development, which is expected to drop by 17.2% [4][14] - By the end of 2025, China's population is estimated to be 1.40489 billion, with a net decrease of 3.39 million people due to 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths [4][14] Steel Production and Trade - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, while pig iron production is projected at 83.604 million tons, down 3.0% [4][14] - Steel production is anticipated to reach 144.612 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [4][14] - China's foreign trade in 2025 is expected to reach 45.47 trillion yuan, a growth of 3.8%, with steel exports hitting a record high of 11.9019 million tons, up 7.5% [4][14] Market Activity - On January 19, the national main port iron ore transactions reached 1.194 million tons, an increase of 7.3% month-on-month, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 10.4% [5][15] - The capacity utilization rate of iron-making furnaces in 247 steel mills was 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points from the previous week, while the profitability rate of steel mills increased by 2.17 percentage points to 39.83% [5][15] - The total supply of five major steel products was 8.1921 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1% week-on-week, while total inventory decreased by 0.6% to 12.4701 million tons [5][15] Specific Steel Products Analysis - Rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1.903 million tons, with total inventory slightly down by 0.04 million tons to 438.07 thousand tons, while demand showed a recovery of 15.28 thousand tons [6][16] - Hot-rolled steel production increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 million tons, with inventory decreasing by 5.8 million tons to 362.33 thousand tons, indicating a cautious market outlook among traders [6][16] Price Strategy - The short-term price range for rebar (contract 2605) is expected to be between 3100-3200 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled steel (contract 2605) is projected to range from 3250-3350 yuan/ton [7][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices in a low-level oscillation. The supply in January may decline by 10,000 - 20,000 tons to 380,000 - 390,000 tons, and the demand is likely to decline slightly by about 10,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the supply decline and potential further production cuts in polysilicon. The polysilicon monthly output is expected to drop to 70,000 - 90,000 tons in Q1 2026. The market is still slightly oversupplied, and the industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The upper price is pressured when the arbitrage window opens, while the lower price is supported by costs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Go long at the lower end of the price range and try short at the upper end [5]. - **Arbitrage**: The current arbitrage window is closed. If the futures price rises and the arbitrage window opens, conduct a positive arbitrage [5]. - **Options**: Buy out-of-the-money call options at low prices [5]. 3.2 Market Overview - Spot prices are stable, futures prices are oscillating, basis prices are oscillating, and the arbitrage space is closed. As of January 16, SMM's East China oxygenated Si5530 silicon is priced at 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton, Si4410 at 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and Si4210 at 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. The market fundamentals are lackluster, with weak supply and demand. The downstream purchasing sentiment is average, and the outlook is not promising, so the market is expected to remain in a low-level oscillation [8]. 3.3 Supply - **Monthly Production**: In December 2025, the industrial silicon production slightly declined to 397,100 tons, with a cumulative production of 4.2678 million tons from January - December 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. In January 2026, the production is expected to further decline to 380,000 - 390,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5% according to SMM, mainly due to the reduction from the shutdown and maintenance of a small number of silicon furnaces in the north in December, partial production cuts by large factories in Xinjiang at the beginning of January, and marginal reductions in Sichuan, Yunnan and other regions [40]. - **Regional Production and Operating Rates**: The weekly production of Xinjiang sample silicon enterprises (with a capacity share of 79%) decreased to 41,680 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 86.01%. Yunnan sample silicon enterprises (30% capacity share) had a weekly production of 2,560 tons, with the operating rate remaining at 22.09%. Sichuan sample silicon enterprises (32% capacity share) had a weekly production of 0 tons, and the operating rate dropped to 0%. Northwest sample silicon enterprises (75% capacity share) had a weekly production of 11,875 tons, and the operating rate was 83%. The total production of the four regions was 55,900 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 640 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 1,420 tons. The decline in Xinjiang's production led to the overall month-on-month decline [46]. 3.4 Demand - **Polysilicon**: The spot trading center of polysilicon has moved up, and the price difference between rod-shaped silicon and granular silicon has further narrowed. The weekly production decreased by 230 tons to 21,500 tons. In January, the production is expected to further decline to about 105,000 tons. According to the Silicon Industry Branch, the monthly polysilicon production in Q1 2026 will drop to the range of 70,000 - 90,000 tons [54]. - **Silicon Wafers**: The weekly production of silicon wafers increased slightly, and the inventory decreased, possibly due to the rush for export demand to digest inventory [56]. - **Battery Cells and Components**: Silicon wafers are stable, battery cell prices continue to rise, and component prices are steadily increasing [61]. - **Organic Silicon**: After an agreement was reached at the organic silicon meeting, the weekly production slightly decreased to 45,200 tons. The DMC quotation increased to 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 250 yuan/ton, with mainly rigid demand purchases [68][74]. - **Aluminum Alloys**: The operating rates of aluminum alloys and recycled aluminum alloys remained unchanged, and the prices increased following the aluminum price. The production of aluminum alloys is expected to slightly increase from December to January, while exports are expected to decline. In December, affected by policy changes, the demand is expected to remain positive, but it may slightly decline in January [75][82][86]. - **Exports**: In November, the export volume of industrial silicon rebounded to 54,900 tons month-on-month. The export volume of primary polysiloxane in the organic silicon sector was 47,000 tons, and the aluminum alloy exports slightly declined but still had a significant year-on-year increase [89]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Raw Materials**: The prices of silica and petroleum coke have declined, while coal prices are expected to rise in the long term [98]. - **Electricity Prices**: In December, entering the dry season, electricity prices increased and are expected to remain high in January [102]. - **Cost**: The cost of Si5530 is about 9,800 - 12,500 yuan/ton, and the cost of Si4210 is about 10,100 - 12,800 yuan/ton [106]. - **Profit**: The profit is still fluctuating around the break - even point [111]. 3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts increased by 395 lots to 11,283 lots this week, equivalent to 56,400 tons. The social inventory totaled 555,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons. The factory inventory increased by 4,200 tons to 207,500 tons, and the total inventory was about 820,000 tons [119].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices declining due to various macroeconomic and domestic factors affecting supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2603) closed at 22,735 yuan, down 525 yuan, representing a decrease of 2.26% [1]. - Trading volume for the day was 187,527 lots, a decrease of 266 lots, while open interest fell by 742 lots to 20,886 [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - The average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 26,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [1]. - Prices for other aluminum alloy ingots remained stable, with A380 at 25,200 yuan/ton, ADC12 at 23,700 yuan/ton, and ZL102 at 25,400 yuan/ton, all reflecting minor fluctuations [1]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - In the U.S., initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly below market expectations, indicating a strong labor market [2]. - Federal Reserve officials expressed a preference to maintain interest rates, citing limited concerns about inflation and the potential negative impact of rate cuts on employment [2]. Group 4: Domestic Economic Policies - The People's Bank of China lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points and announced additional measures to boost market confidence and limit the decline in aluminum futures prices [2]. - The domestic supply of raw aluminum remains tight, with increased costs due to tax adjustments, while demand from downstream sectors is weak due to seasonal factors [2]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - The industry faces challenges with cost transmission issues, profit margins under pressure, and limited consumption, leading to a potential decrease in the operating rate of recycled aluminum [2]. - Overall, the casting aluminum market is characterized by mixed fundamentals, with short-term price adjustments expected to follow cost fluctuations, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [2].

Market Overview - As of January 14, the top 20 futures companies for industrial silicon had a long position of 221,600 contracts and a short position of 248,000 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.89. The net position increased by 12,600 contracts compared to the previous day, totaling -26,400 contracts [1] - On January 15, the spot price for industrial silicon (5530) remained stable at 9,500 CNY/ton, with no change in price over the past week or month, indicating a 0.00% fluctuation [1] - December's industrial silicon production remained stable month-on-month, with the number of furnaces in the Southwest region dropping to a low for the same period, indicating limited room for further contraction [1] Institutional Insights - Donghai Futures suggests that the market-oriented clearance policy is bearish for polysilicon, which in turn may lead to a decline in industrial silicon prices. The market is expected to experience weak fluctuations, with attention on cost support levels [2] - Guangzhou Futures notes that the recent rebound in prices is primarily supported by coal price costs, alongside weak operating rates in the North and supply contraction expectations from marginal reductions in Sichuan and Yunnan. However, the core supply-demand balance remains weak, with reduced consumption of silicon due to lower production of polysilicon and organosilicon. Social inventory remains high, and pre-holiday stocking sentiment is low, leading to a focus on demand-based transactions. The current supply is slightly loose, and the demand side lacks sustained incremental growth, suggesting a range-bound market. Future attention should be on pre-holiday stocking rhythms and changes in production in the Northwest region, with the main contract Si2605 expected to trade within the range of 8,500 to 8,900 CNY [3]

今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅下跌，沪铅主力合约2602开盘报17350元，高点报17400元，低点报17235 元，结算价17315元，收盘17355元/吨，跌165元，跌幅0.94%。今日沪铅主力合约成交量58684手，持仓 量42928手减少3100手。伦铅最新价报2038.5美元，涨22美元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报17200-17300元/吨，均价17250元，跌150元；广东现货 市场1#铅报17200-17300元/吨，均价17250元，跌150元。今日现货铅市场报价在17200-17300元/吨之 间，对比沪期铅2601合约贴水55-升水45元/吨，沪期铅2602合约贴水130-贴水30元/吨。 ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价小跌，当前宏观与地缘环境对铅市的影响，呈现"预期传导大于实质 冲击、整体压制强于个别支撑"的特点。宏观层面，美元在政策不确定性中获得支撑，对大宗商品构成 普遍压制，而美股科技股回调引发的风险偏好收敛，也加剧了资金从有色板块流出。尽管地缘局势紧 张，但铅市自身基本面疲软，使其难以吸引避险资金，反而在宏观情绪转冷时更显脆弱。供应端，刚果 （金）大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the short - term market expects marginal improvement in supply - demand, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [2]. - The current background of crude oil is supply surplus despite frequent geopolitical conflicts, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. - Due to increased supply and reduced demand in the steel market, and unstable cost support, but boosted by macro sentiment, steel prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - Silicon iron is expected to fluctuate around the cost valuation due to the double - weak supply and demand in the off - season [5]. - The overall supply of live pigs is loose, and short - term long positions are recommended while paying attention to the slaughter volume and sows culling [6]. - The short - term price of soybean meal is supported by cost and will fluctuate strongly, but may be pressured later [6]. - For palm oil, short - term long positions are recommended as the short - term market is bullish, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil on oils [7]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern in the short term, but the risk of correction should be vigilant [8]. - For PTA, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term after long positions take profits [8]. - For natural rubber, it is advisable to go long at low prices in the short term [9]. - Methanol is expected to run strongly in the short term [10]. - Polypropylene is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [12]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - From December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment was 3213.7 million tons, a decrease of 463.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2742.7 million tons, a decrease of 316.9 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2824.7 million tons, an increase of 96.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2756.4 million tons, an increase of 155.0 million tons [2]. Crude Oil - As of January 2, 2026, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.9 million barrels. The sanctions on Venezuela have affected its oil production and shipping [3]. Steel - On January 6, 2026, the domestic steel market fluctuated weakly. The price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan was stable at 2930 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. Silicon Iron - The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 18481.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.27%. The weekly output was 98900 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons. The weekly demand - to - supply ratio rose to 18.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34% [5]. Live Pigs - On January 6, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural product markets was 17.99 yuan/kg, a 0.2% increase from the previous day. The national pig price was stronger in the north and weaker in the south [6]. Soybean Meal - On January 6, 2026, the domestic soybean meal spot prices generally increased, with prices in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong rising by 20 - 40 yuan/ton [6]. Palm Oil - From January 1 - 5, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 34.70% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.04%, and the output decreased by 34.48% [7]. Copper - The second - phase project of Mirador Copper Mine is expected to be postponed. Copper prices were driven up by geopolitical turmoil and mine - end disturbances, but the risk of correction should be vigilant [8]. PTA - The PTA load reached 72.5% (- 0.7%). The 1 - quarter inventory accumulation expectation of PTA is enhanced, and the self - driving force is limited [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material rubber latex was 55 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber was 51.5 Thai baht/kg. As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased [9]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 94200 tons, an increase of 15700 tons. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate was 90.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74% [10]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene was 6253 yuan/ton, flat from the previous day. The capacity utilization rate was 74.88%, a decrease of 1.05% from the previous day [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1232 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The weekly output was 697100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% [12].