Group 1: Domestic News - The UK Prime Minister Starmer will visit China from January 28 to 31, marking the first visit by a UK Prime Minister in eight years, with discussions on trade and investment cooperation expected [2] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security plans to expand the scale of entrusted investment of the basic pension insurance fund, with the total income of three social insurance funds reaching 9.1 trillion yuan and total expenditure at 8.1 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [2] - By the end of 2025, the loan acquisition rate for technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises reached 50.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous year [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 0.6% year-on-year in 2025, reversing a three-year decline, with significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries [3] - Jilin Province has successfully exited the list of key local debt provinces, achieving the standards set in its 14th Five-Year Plan [4] Group 3: International News - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts for the first time since September, maintaining the benchmark rate between 3.5% and 3.75% [5] - India and the EU have finalized a historic free trade agreement, with India agreeing to eliminate tariffs on over 90% of EU goods, marking a significant shift in trade relations [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The bond market showed fluctuations with the stock market's performance, as the yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 0.70 basis points to 1.8320% [11] - The convertible bond market saw a collective increase in major indices, although most individual convertible bonds experienced declines, with 162 bonds rising and 207 falling [14] Group 5: Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices increased, with WTI crude rising by 2.90% to $62.39 per barrel, while natural gas prices saw a slight decline [7] Group 6: Financial Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 402 billion yuan at a fixed rate, resulting in a net injection of 78 billion yuan into the market [8] - The money market showed improvement with the DR001 rate decreasing by 5.00 basis points to 1.367% [9]

Group 1: Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day OMO injection of 402 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 78 billion yuan, indicating a marginal improvement in liquidity [1] - The bond market experienced a mixed performance, with a divergence between long-term and short-term bonds, as the market remained in a narrow fluctuation range [1] - The overall sentiment in the bond market was cautious, influenced by the stock market's volatility, leading to a general decline in bond prices [2] Group 2: Interest Rates and Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 0.45 basis points to 1.8295%, while the 30-year bond yield increased by 1.35 basis points to 2.2555% [1] - The Shibor rates showed a mixed trend, with the overnight Shibor declining to 1.3710%, down by 4.90 basis points, while the 1-month Shibor remained relatively stable [3] - The bond market saw a decrease in trading volume, with the total transaction scale dropping by 28.9 billion yuan to 207.8 billion yuan [3] Group 3: REITs Market Performance - The public REITs market showed a slight increase, with the index rising by 0.08% to 1045.72 points, reflecting a cumulative increase of 3.55% for the year [4] - There was significant divergence within the REITs sector, with consumer and high-speed sectors leading gains, while industrial park and innovation sectors faced declines [4] - The total trading volume in the REITs market increased by 23.35% to 666 million yuan, indicating a neutral trading environment [4]

一方面，从2026年全年视角来看，我们认为利率中枢下移的概率相对较大。这一判断主要基于当前的经 济基本面：投资端面临压力，消费端在国补退坡后，商品消费走弱趋势显著，地产端等领域也表现疲 软。总体来看，多项传统经济指标均反映出当前"弱现实"的态势。 另一方面，从货币政策来看，短期央行仍以呵护市场为主。尽管市场对短期进一步强宽松的预期较弱， 但对于货币或流动性收紧，市场普遍认为2026年一季度不会重演2025年一季度的行情——2025年一季度 的流动性收紧，主要源于2024年底利率单边下行过于显著，当时利率可能已低于政策合意水平。 短期来看，债券市场对流动性收紧的担忧程度较低。结合去年的情况，无论是配合财政发力，还是在全 球宽松的大背景下，我国货币政策保持灵活自主，我们认为2026年全年仍有一次降息的可能性。降息一 方面需要配合经济基本面的实际情况，另一方面也是货币政策工具的储备与运用。例如去年，在遭遇较 强关税冲击后，我们于5月落地了一次降息。今年或许也会类似，短期降息落地概率不高，但从全年来 看，仍有较大可能性。 从这一角度来看，一季度利率债走势可能面临一定压力：既要应对信贷"开门红"的相关压力，也要担忧 长 ...

Group 1 - The bond market performance in 2025 was not strong, with varying trading themes throughout the year. The first quarter saw a significant rise in interest rates due to excessive pricing of monetary easing expectations for the end of 2024, leading to a correction in these expectations in early 2025 [1] - In the second quarter, the bond market experienced a rally influenced by tariff disturbances. By the third quarter, the stock market showed strong performance under the "anti-involution" backdrop, leading to a stock-bond seesaw effect, with bond rates rising again. The fourth quarter exhibited weak fluctuations, with diminishing effects from previous trends and uncertainties from new rate regulations [3] - For 2026, the first quarter is viewed as a favorable time for bond market allocation, with expectations that interest rates may peak during this period. Factors such as concerns over long-term bond supply and the "opening red" of credit at the beginning of the year may exert pressure on rates, while the market anticipates a potential 10 basis points rate cut over the year [4] Group 2 - The economic outlook for 2026 is characterized as "weak reality," with a tendency for loose monetary policy and a high probability of interest rate cuts throughout the year. The stock-bond seesaw effect may weaken in the second half of the year, suggesting a strategy of accumulating ten-year government bond ETFs during corrections [5] - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has notable advantages, including a transparent portfolio of bonds with remaining maturities of 7-10 years. It has achieved positive returns annually since 2018, with a market fluctuation of 0.3% in 2025. The ETF offers lower volatility compared to 30-year bonds and better coupon rates than shorter-duration bonds, making it a stable investment option [5]

Core Viewpoint - The beginning of 2026 presents challenges for conservative investors, with a strong A-share market and weak performance in bond funds and wealth management products, leading to increased volatility risks [1][2] Summary of 2025 Bond Market Performance - The bond market in 2025 saw a historical low annual yield of 0.83%, attributed to a divergence between expectations and reality, as well as changes in market structure [1][2] - The rapid rise in bond prices at the end of 2024 was driven by a shift in funds from the stock market due to risk aversion and expectations of significant monetary easing in 2025, which did not materialize as anticipated [2][3] Key Factors Influencing the 2026 Bond Market - The influence of stock market performance on bond funds remains, but the intensity may become more rational, with a potential easing of supply pressure in the bond market [3][4] - The structural changes in traditional investment forces, such as banks and insurance companies, continue to pose challenges for the bond market in 2026 [4][5] Structural Opportunities in the 2026 Bond Market - Despite pressures, there are positive factors, such as the significant amount of maturing deposits expected in early 2026, which may lead to a shift towards stable investment products like bonds [6][7] - The anticipated inflow of funds into wealth management and "fixed income+" products could create structural opportunities for short-term credit bonds and long-term local government bonds [7][8] Investment Strategy for 2026 - The bond market is expected to have limited risk of significant declines, supported by a combination of fiscal and monetary policies aimed at easing pressure on debt servicing [8] - The potential for a significant rise in long-term bonds is limited, while short-term credit bonds may become a focal point for investment as maturing deposits are reallocated [8][9]

（来源：经济参考报） 随着年初结构性降息"落地"，债市后续如何演绎成为各界关注的焦点。业内人士认为，尽管来自资金面 的支撑尚存，但考虑到股市"春季躁动"、地方债供给压力、基本面边际改善等因素带来的扰动依旧，短 期债市大概率仍将呈现震荡格局。 政策加码添动能 宽松窗口启新篇 1月19日，央行下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点，打响了年内货币政策宽松"第一枪"。 本次结构性降息与全面降息存在本质差异，并非通过下调政策利率带动LPR下行，而是聚焦重点领域精 准发力，下调后3个月、6个月和1年期支农支小再贷款利率分别降至0.95%、1.15%和1.25%，再贴现利 率降至1.5%，核心是降低银行从央行获取资金的成本，引导金融资源向小微企业、科技创新、绿色转 型等领域倾斜。 招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼指出，此次结构性"降息"不仅强化了对商业银行 的政策激励，更传递出明确信号，能吸引更多社会资本进入重点行业和产业。这是精准"滴灌"支持实体 经济、降低融资成本的关键一步。 对于债市而言，本次政策属于本轮降息周期中的补降环节，奠定了债市短期博弈的基础环境。 "结构性工具降息面临的掣肘更少，既能保护银 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance of mixed public funds over the past year, indicating a strong market performance in A-shares and a significant presence of certain financial institutions in the rankings [5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 15, 2026, the A-share market continued its strong performance, with the ChiNext Index rising over 62%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing over 42%, and the Sci-Tech 100 Index gaining over 74% [5]. - The Hong Kong stock market also showed positive results, with the Hang Seng Index up over 39%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 33%, and the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Index increasing over 46% [5]. - The bond market experienced continued fluctuations, with a downward trend in interest rates [5]. Group 2: Overall Performance of Mixed Public Products - As of January 15, 2026, there were 249 mixed public fund products with an investment period of 1-3 years, with an average net value growth rate of 5.50% over the past year [6]. - More than 60% of these products had a net value growth rate between 1% and 5%, while 11 products had growth rates between 10% and 20%, and 8 products exceeded 20% growth [6]. - Only one product reported negative growth [6]. Group 3: Product Analysis - Ningyin Wealth Management had 7 products heavily invested in equity assets and public funds, with some products having over 80% allocation to public funds [7]. - The strong performance of the equity market led to superior growth in Ningyin's mixed products, although they were also subject to significant volatility, with some products experiencing maximum drawdowns exceeding 15% [7]. - The report noted that mixed equity products performed well, while mixed debt products lagged due to the "stock-bond seesaw effect" [7]. - The lowest performing product was the "Postal Wealth·Hongyuan Two-Year Fixed Opening No. 21 (Industry Selection) RMB Financial Product," which had a net value growth rate of -0.88% and a bond holding ratio of 41.6% [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - A new wave of fee reductions in bank wealth management products has emerged, with several institutions lowering management and service fees, some to as low as 0.01% per year or even zero [3][11] - The fee reduction trend is driven by three main factors: the beginning of the year marketing push, the declining deposit rates highlighting the attractiveness of wealth management products, and intensified competition leading to fee reductions as a direct competitive strategy [11][12] - The introduction of innovative products, such as the "HeTai Weekly Open 1" by Zhaoyin Wealth Management, which features a "micro-wave fixed income+" strategy and a weekly holding period, aims to attract investors through temporary fee discounts [4][13] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the recent implementation of new public offering sales regulations and the deepening of wealth management subsidiaries' practices [2] - The fee reduction trend is characterized as a temporary measure, with varying durations from weeks to the entire year of 2026 [11] - The report notes that the current low fee model may not be sustainable in the long term, as it could erode the profitability of wealth management companies [12] Performance of Returns - Cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.26%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous week, while money market funds reported a yield of 1.16%, down 2 basis points [5][15] - Most pure fixed-income products saw an increase in yields, while yields for fixed-income plus products generally declined [19] - The report anticipates continued pressure on the bond market, with factors such as mixed expectations for monetary policy and significant government bond supply affecting market sentiment [19][20] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products was 0.82%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points week-on-week, with credit spreads also narrowing [26][30] - The report indicates a positive correlation between net value ratios and credit spreads, suggesting that if credit spreads continue to widen, it may put upward pressure on net value ratios [28]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-01-21 股债跷跷板效应再度显现 股指期货：TMT及军⼯拖累情绪 股指期权：备兑防御为主 国债期货：⻛险偏好降温，债市上涨 股指期货方面，周二全天弱势，其中下跌个股多于上涨个股，尾盘跌 势收窄。行业方面，石化、地产、建材等价值行业领涨，高股息资产表现 占优，这显示盘面情绪偏向防御。触发早盘调整的因素有三，其一，亚太 市场早盘弱势，日韩股市普跌间接传导至A股及港股市场，其二，上午部 分宽基ETF成交放量，市场近期担心大资金集中止盈的可能性，故转向保 守，其三，以军工为代表的题材加速跳水，隐含融资新规之后，资金调仓 换股。展望后市，仍积极看待市场，尽管负面因素累积，但两会之前政策 偏暖预期、弱势美元、经济数据空窗期等有利因素难以证伪，短期虽有波 折，但不改趋势。同时降温之后，资金向稳健方向游走，中证500在主要 宽基中仍有比较优势。 股指期权方面，各个品种市场成交额有所回升；品种成交量则涨跌互 现，多数品种以提升为主；而持仓量的变化总体有限。结合日内行情，我 们的推测是，短期市场波动加剧，但中期卖权交易思路依旧主导，期权 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of recent structural interest rate cuts by the central bank on the bond market, indicating a likely short-term oscillation due to various influencing factors [2][3][4] - The central bank's recent decision to lower the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points is seen as the first step towards monetary policy easing in 2023, aimed at directing financial resources towards small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green transformation [3][4] - The bond market is currently experiencing a balance of bullish and bearish factors, with supportive elements including policy expectations and liquidity maintenance, while challenges arise from supply pressures and shifts in risk appetite [4][5] Group 2 - The bond market is facing significant supply pressures, particularly with large-scale government bond issuances and a high proportion of long-term local government bonds, which may negatively affect market sentiment [5] - The stock market's performance is causing a diversion of funds away from the bond market, exacerbating the sensitivity of the bond market to negative influences [5][6] - Analysts suggest that in the first quarter of 2026, the bond market will likely remain uncertain, with a focus on structural opportunities while managing risks, recommending a combination of medium-short duration credit bonds and long-duration government bonds [6][7]