临近年末，股债"跷跷板"效应弱化。 债市持续承压，超长债收益率逼近年内高点。临近年末，股债"跷跷板"效应弱化，市场分歧加剧。 12月3日，债市延续震荡趋势，利率债收益率多数上行，超长期特别国债明显更弱，30年期"25超长特别 国债06"收益率来到2.24%附近。消息面上，市场密切关注的央行国债买卖靴子落地，500亿元净投放规 模高于上月，但仍低于预期。 有市场人士对记者表示，国债买卖和公募基金赎回费率新规是近期债市交易的两大主线。尽管11月央行 买债规模较上月增加，但相比去年月均买债规模仍偏低，不及市场预期。 不过，从市场反应来看，在上述消息公布后，持续阴跌的超长债收益率一度出现小幅修复。在此之前， 债市持续承压，超长债表现明显更弱，多只30年期国债活跃券收益率来到年内高位，期限利差不断走 阔。 回顾来看，11月以来，10年期国债活跃券"25附息国债16"收益率从1.79%抬升至1.84%左右，"25超长特 别国债06"收益率则从2.14%附近一路升至2.24%附近。 "债市连日阴跌，市场对买卖国债的规模本身就有较高的预期。从债券的走势来看，显然（央行）买卖 国债500亿元不及市场预期，昨日（2日）早盘开始， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant wave of redemptions in the bond fund market, driven by market style shifts, policy expectations, and institutional behaviors, leading to a re-evaluation of the roles of pure bond funds and "fixed income plus" products [2][14][19] - As of December 2, at least 60 bond funds have announced adjustments to their net asset value precision due to large redemptions, indicating ongoing redemption pressure in the fourth quarter [2][8] - The bond fund market has seen a substantial decline in total shares, with a reduction of approximately 4.74 billion shares and a decrease in scale by about 169.5 billion yuan from the second to the third quarter [5][6] Group 2 - The redemption trend is particularly pronounced in medium- to long-term pure bond funds, which account for over 90% of the total net redemptions [6] - The article notes that while traditional pure bond funds are experiencing significant outflows, "fixed income plus" products are gaining traction, reflecting a structural reallocation of funds [19][20] - The article identifies three main drivers for the current redemption wave: the stock market's attractive performance, poor bond fund returns, and uncertainties surrounding policy changes [14][15][16] Group 3 - The stock market has shown a notable upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 16% and the ChiNext Index increasing over 43% year-to-date, which has incentivized funds to shift from bonds to equities [15] - Concerns regarding new regulations on public fund sales fees are contributing to the redemption pressure, as market participants fear potential impacts on bond fund liquidity management [16][17] - Despite the short-term pressures, industry experts believe that the fundamental value of bond funds as a stabilizing asset class remains intact, and there may be new investment opportunities once market conditions stabilize [21][22]

我们先通过一张示意图直观感受资产配置的重要性与意义。资产价格总会波动，无论是国内外资产，拉长到年度维度看，大多呈现震荡上行的特征。假设 我们有两类资产，走势不同且呈一定负相关，但长期均震荡上行，若两者收益率相近，单独选择任一资产都可行，但更优解是做资产配置——将资金各 50%分配给两类资产。在理想情况下，这两类资产长期收益率均上行，但受宏观因素、基本面、资金结构等影响，各自会出现阶段性回撤，而分散配置 后，虽长期收益率与单独持有相近，但资产回撤和波动会大幅降低，能显著改善投资持有体验。 在此背景下，十年国债ETF（511260）核心价值凸显。十年国债ETF（511260）是唯一跟踪上证十年期国债指数的产品，持仓透明无风格漂移，历史上每 年均实现正收益，具备低波动、稳健收益特征，且支持日内回转交易、质押加杠杆等功能，综合费率仅0.2%，操作便捷、成本优势显著。结合年底债券 配置的历史规律与明年宽松政策预期，十年国债ETF（511260）是震荡市中平衡组合风险、把握债市机会的优选工具，当前具备较高布局价值。 风险提示： 这张图生动揭示了资产配置的核心逻辑：寻找相关性较低的资产进行资金分散，也就是我们常说的"不要把 ...

简单聊一下对于债券类投资而言，之前的股债跷跷板效应对资金的影响，以及大家比较担忧的存款搬家事件会不会削弱或压制银行配置债券的力量。首先 看居民存款和非银金融存款这两个指标的走势：一个反映大家的存款情况，另一个能在一定程度上体现理财或股市资金的流向，两者呈现此消彼长的关 系，从数据上能清晰看出资金的流动趋势。 再从债券投资最主要的参与者——银行的配债需求来看，近年来贷款需求不高，银行放贷难度加大，导致存款类金融机构的贷款同比增速开始低于存款增 速。这意味着银行吸收了大量存款却无法全部通过放贷释放，必须为这笔资金寻找其他出路，因此对债券的配置需求具有较强刚性，大家无需担忧债券类 资产投资资金总量收缩的问题。 在此背景下，十年国债ETF（511260）核心价值凸显。十年国债ETF（511260）是唯一跟踪上证十年期国债指数的产品，持仓透明无风格漂移，历史上每 年均实现正收益，具备低波动、稳健收益特征，且支持日内回转交易、质押加杠杆等功能，综合费率仅0.2%，操作便捷、成本优势显著。结合年底债券 配置的历史规律与明年宽松政策预期，十年国债ETF（511260）是震荡市中平衡组合风险、把握债市机会的优选工具，当前具备较 ...

债券类投资的主要配置与交易力量来自专业机构投资者，包括银行、基金、保险等，其中银行是核心力 量，其资金结构与股票投资存在较大差异，这也导致股债两类资产的定价方式有明显不同。就像大家常 调侃的，股票资产的走势并不太依赖经济基本面的实际运行，但债券资产却比较看重经济的实际表现以 及对未来基本面的判断，这里给大家同步一下最新的10月经济数据情况。 地产投资与大家的感受一致，地产开发投资及销售情况均未达预期。10月商品房销售面积与销售额同比 增速进一步下滑，对应的房企资金及房地产投资增速也同步回落。消费是今年的亮点领域，这得益于去 年以来实施的消费补贴政策，但想必大家都有感受——由于与生活息息相关，消费补贴正在退坡，这与 年末部分地区资金使用情况有关。我们之前也讨论过，除了消费补贴退坡，部分产品（如手机、消费电 子、摄影器材等）经过去年至今的更新周期，用户的更新需求已基本释放，因此数据显示消费延续偏弱 走势。 从分类数据来看，金银珠宝是一大亮点。受传统文化习俗影响，国人对黄金珠宝的喜爱度较高，因此尽 管金价上涨，黄金消费品的增速依然表现亮眼。而家电品类，自去年开始享受补贴后，8-10月增速逐步 下行，10月同比增速转 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - After the recent adjustment, the allocation value of bonds has started to emerge, with the yields of 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds approaching the levels when the central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading in late October, increasing the attractiveness to allocation-oriented institutions [8] - The market will focus on the official PMI data for November and the Central Economic Work Conference in December, which may provide new directional guidance for the market [8] - In the short term, the pattern of a ceiling and a floor for bonds is difficult to break, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds may remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. If the expectation of an interest rate cut is strengthened at the beginning of next year, the bond market is expected to rise [8] - In the medium to long term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge facing China's economic development. With the marginal decline of the economic pulling effect of land finance and debt-driven models, and the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, deflation is likely to continue, which is favorable for bond futures [8] - The coordinated strengthening of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, creates a low-interest rate environment, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - Last week, treasury bond futures were relatively stable at the beginning of the week, but there was a significant turning point on Wednesday, with a sharp decline in the late trading. The decline of long-term contracts was significantly greater than that of short-term contracts. The 30-year treasury bond futures main contract had a single-day decline of 0.86%, and the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts had declines of 0.36%, 0.22%, and 0.05% respectively [4] - The decline was mainly driven by news factors. The market rumor on Wednesday that the central bank's bond purchase scale this month was only 20 billion yuan, significantly lower than market expectations, and the large-scale fund redemption on the same day further exacerbated the market selling pressure. The low volatility background and fragile trading sentiment in the market amplified the decline [4] - Before the significant adjustment on Wednesday, the treasury bond market had been in a low-volatility sideways state for several weeks, lacking a clear trading theme. The traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect did not appear, reflecting investors' lack of confidence in going long due to concerns about the lack of further monetary policy easing and the wait-and-see attitude towards the new regulations on public fund sales [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data and charts on open market operations (including currency issuance, currency withdrawal, and net currency issuance), medium-term lending facilities (including amount and price), reverse repurchase rates, various capital prices (such as deposit-based pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rates, and bond pledged repurchase rates), and spreads, as well as LPR, deposit reserve ratios, and treasury bond and US treasury bond yields and term spreads [10][12][19] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data and charts on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures [45][53][60]

伴随着上证指数冲上4000点，公募基金规模也再创历史新高。 11月28日，中国基金业协会发布的最新一期公募基金市场数据显示，截至今年10月底，公募基金总规模达到36.96万亿元，连续第七个月创出历史新高。 从环比变化情况看，10月份公募基金份额、规模双双上涨。相比于9月末，公募基金总份额增加1.08%，总规模增加0.59%。 从细分类型上看，投资者申购股票、QDII及货币型基金热情最高，份额均实现不同程度增长，债券、混合及封闭式基金遭遇净赎回。 公募基金总规模逼近37万亿元 基金业协会数据显示，截至2025年10月底，我国境内公募基金管理机构共165家，其中基金管理公司150家，取得公募资格的资产管理机构15家。以上机构 管理的公募基金资产净值合计36.96万亿元。 | 类别 | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (2025/10/31) | (2025/10/31) | (2025/10/31) | (2025/9/30) | (202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The total scale of public funds in China has reached a historical high of 36.96 trillion yuan as of the end of October 2023, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth [2][6]. Fund Scale and Growth - As of October 2023, the total scale of public funds increased by 0.59% compared to September, while the total share rose by 1.08% [6][8]. - The public fund scale has grown by 4.13 trillion yuan compared to the end of last year, with an annual growth rate exceeding 12% [8]. Fund Types and Performance - Investors showed the highest enthusiasm for stock, QDII, and money market funds, all of which experienced varying degrees of growth in share [2][11]. - The number of public fund management institutions in China reached 165, managing a total net asset value of 36.96 trillion yuan [4]. Specific Fund Categories - As of October 2023, the share of stock funds reached 3.74 trillion shares, up 1.79% from September, while mixed fund shares decreased by 0.44% to 2.88 trillion shares [8][9]. - The scale of stock funds fell by 0.49% to 5.93 trillion yuan, and mixed funds decreased by 1.27% to 4.26 trillion yuan due to a decline in net value [10][11]. - Bond funds faced the most significant redemptions, with shares and scale dropping by 2.32% and 1.45%, respectively, to 5.63 trillion shares and 7.1 trillion yuan [11]. QDII and Money Market Funds - QDII funds saw a substantial increase in share, reaching 7367.27 billion shares, a rise of 7.09%, with the latest scale at 9390.08 billion yuan, up 3.12% [11]. - Money market funds experienced a growth of 3855.36 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.63% increase as some institutional funds returned to this category [11].

股债跷跷板效应不存在了？ 近期，国内债市持续承压，长债利率接连上行。11月27日，国债期货收盘多数下跌，10年期国债收益率 在1.84%附近向上震荡。 综合机构观点，近期债市承压一方面是因为政策上降息预期降温，另一方面是市场对"固收+"基金赎 回、公募基金销售新规落地存在担忧。与此同时，万科债券展期风波给市场情绪带来冲击，主要利空信 用债，但赎回压力下利率债也会受到波及。 临近年末，机构对震荡市的判断更为明显，降准降息预期仍是主要干扰因素。受访人士认为，综合考虑 内外部环境和地方债供给情况，岁末年初降准降息仍有空间。 10年期国债收益率回升至1.84% 不同于三季度较为明显的股债跷跷板效应，近期即使股市出现连续下跌，债市依旧表现偏弱。以10年期 国债品种为例，进入11月以来，"25附息国债16"收益率从1.79%一路上行至1.84%左右；30年期国债活 跃券收益率则从2.14%来到2.2%附近。 对此，财通证券固收分析师孙彬彬认为，从宏观逻辑上，债市的增量利好有限、货币政策方向不明确， 而前期利率债补涨结束，主流券种收益率下行有阻力，债市情绪整体较弱。从机构行为角度，他认为一 方面是因为保险大量赎回"固收+" ...

人民财讯11月26日电，长城基金相关人士认为，市场短期内迎来重要数据的真空期，"股债跷跷板"效应 相对减弱，判断当前债市虽然短期内缺乏明确方向，或以震荡为主，但从中期角度看，预期资金面有望 保持整体宽松，债市总体或还是顺风期。 ...