Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, with rising yields leading to a decline in bond prices, prompting various strategies among fixed-income fund managers to navigate the current environment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond market has shown a "see-saw" effect with the stock market, where bond yields have increased, leading to a notable decline in the net value of medium- and long-term pure bond funds [1][2]. - As of August 25, the Wind data indicates that the index for medium- and long-term pure bond funds has decreased by 0.17% since the beginning of August, with over 120 funds experiencing a drop of more than 0.7% [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield rose from approximately 1.65% in early July to around 1.8% by late August, reflecting the market's volatility [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Manager Strategies - Some fund managers are adopting aggressive strategies, viewing the current market conditions as a buying opportunity, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield could return to around 1.65% by year-end [2][3]. - Other managers are taking a more cautious approach, suggesting that while some bond varieties are becoming more attractive, the timing for significant investments has not yet arrived [3]. - Fund managers are focusing on adjusting their portfolios, with some opting to reduce duration and enhance liquidity in response to market conditions [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts maintain a cautiously optimistic view on the bond market, anticipating that macroeconomic stability will persist into 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter [4]. - The expectation is that the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a loose monetary policy, which could support the bond market and lead to a gradual decline in long-term bond yields [4]. - Long-term trends suggest that the bond market will remain strong, with a likelihood of lower yield levels as the central bank engages in measures such as purchasing government bonds and adjusting reserve requirements [4].

8月26日，中国证券投资基金业协会发布的最新数据显示，截至2025年7月底，我国境内公募基金管理机 构共164家，其中基金管理公司149家，取得公募资格的资产管理机构15家。以上机构管理的公募基金资 产净值合计35.08万亿元，较6月末的34.39万亿元增加0.69万亿元，增幅为2.01%。 这已是自2024年以来，公募基金总规模月度第10次刷新历史最高纪录，并首次突破35万亿元大关。 开放式基金是推动公募基金总规模增长的主要力量。数据显示，截至2025年7月底，开放式基金资产净 值合计为313321.86亿元，封闭式基金资产净值合计为37434.01亿元。其中，开放式基金在规模、份额和 数量上均实现增长，较6月底分别增加7106.12亿元、1588.99亿份和108只；封闭式基金的规模和份额则 均较6月底有所缩水。 开放式基金涵盖股票基金、混合基金、债券基金、货币基金和QDII(合格境内机构投资者)基金五大类。 数据显示，截至7月底，上述各类基金规模分别为4.92万亿元、3.83万亿元、7.24万亿元、14.61万亿元和 0.73万亿元。 从变动情况来看，截至7月底，除债券基金规模有所下降外，股票基金、混合 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 债市拐点信号明确了吗？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 8 月以来，债市出现明显调整，市场关注本轮债市调整至何处结束，以及接下来修复行情开启 的契机以及修复空间。我们认为，首先从当前的机构行为判断，债市的悲观预期或已基本释放 到位；其次，需要出现一条信号意义明确、能被市场广泛接受的利多主线，在三条可能的利多 主线中，股债各自走出独立行情、以及社融增速触顶回落的情况发生概率较大，央行降息的预 期则需要再观察。当前债市拐点信号较明确，10 年期国债收益率 1.8%附近或面临较强的阻力， 建议把握住调整出的债市机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525080001 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 8 月以来，债市出现明显调整，尤其长端调整更为显著，债市整体熊陡，利率调整幅度大于信 用。市场关注本轮债市调整至何处结束，以及接下来修复行情开启的契机以及修复空间。我们 认为，债市调整拐点出现需要满足两个条件： ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-08-26 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:王一 SAC 登记编号:S1340125070001 Email:wangyi8@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《调整后，如何抓住信用的机会？—— 信用周报 20250825》 - 2025.08.26 固收专题 债市调整处于什么阶段？ ——看股做债专题一 ⚫ 2014-2025，权益牛市期间债市如何表现 1）2014–2015 年在宽货币与改革影响下，A 股快速拉升，而利率 债并未单边走弱：初期总量宽松支撑股债同涨；中期预期分化与资金 虹吸主导"股涨债跌"；股市盘整期，债市有修复机会；杠杆助推股市 阶段冲顶之际，市场回归"股强债弱"。2）2016 年中期在货币宽松与 供给侧改革共振下，股债曾短暂同涨；2017 年去杠杆与监管强化，叠 加稳汇率诉求，资金价格抬升触发股债"双杀"。3）2019 年在制度改 革与科创行情驱动下，权益结构性上涨而债市总体震荡、前低后高； 2020 年宽松政策对冲疫情冲击，长端收 ...

见证历史，公募基金规模首次突破 35 万亿元大关。 8 月 26 日，中国基金业协会发布的最新一期公募基金市场数据显示，截至今年 7 月底，公 募基金总规模达到 35.08 万亿元，首次突破 35 万亿元大关。 从环比变化情况看，7月份公募基金规模增长主要靠净值拉动。相比 6 月末，公募基金总份额 微增 0.40% ，总规模猛增 1.99% 。 从细分类型上看，尽管 A 股市场 7 月继续高歌猛进，但基民整体情绪偏向 " 落袋为安 " ， 股票及混合型基金份额均出现缩水，规模增长主要靠净值带动。 【导读】公募基金规模首次突破 35 万亿元，创历史新高 中国基金报记者 若晖 公募基金规模再创历史新高 中国基金业协会最新披露的数据显示，截至 2025 年 7 月底，我国境内公募基金管理机构共 164 家，其中基金管理公司 149 家，取得公募资格的资产管理机构 15 家。以上机构管理的 公募基金资产净值合计 35.08 万亿元。 | 类别 | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

智通财经8月26日讯（记者 李迪）股票市场回暖之际，公募基金总规模也再度实现突破。 7月底，我国公募基金总规模达35.08万亿元，首破35万亿元，并自2024年初以来第十次创历史新高。 分类型来看，货币基金在7月实现规模猛增3813.84亿元，QDII基金也增长超460亿。 股票基金和混合基金的规模在7月也分别增长1925.94亿、1385.56亿元，但份额却小幅下降。这意味着， 随着市场回暖和基金收益上行，一些回本或减亏的投资者正在赎回权益类产品。 值得注意的是，今年年初公募基金总规模曾短暂下行，1月底时跌破32万亿元大关。而随着经济持续复 苏和股市震荡上行，我国公募基金总规模迅速重拾升势，并且多次突破历史新高。展望未来，业内人士 预计，随着市场回暖、新型产品推出和被动投资迅速发展，我国公募基金规模有望继续稳健增长。 赎回压力导致股基、混合基份额微降 分类型来看，今年7月，股票基金和混合基金的规模分别增长1925.94亿元和1385.56亿元。 此外，其他类型基金实现规模增长时，债券基金总规模却在7月下降。这是因为，在"股债跷跷板"效应 的影响下，债券基金正面临一定的赎回压力。不过业内人士认为，债市未来仍有 ...

近期，股债"跷跷板效应"再现。债券市场在8月经历了一轮显著调整，不少中长期纯债基金净值承压。 面对利率上行、债基赎回等多重考验，固收基金经理展现出不同的应对策略：有的已开始积极布局，视 当前收益率为难得的"买点"；有的则审慎观望，更倾向于缩短久期、提升流动性。 操作更加积极 国泰基金基金经理胡智磊在近期的策略会上提示了当下时点的性价比。他表示，债市出现超调或转向的 概率不大。若权益市场走弱或者由快速上涨转为震荡、"反内卷"相关商品价格冲高回落或央行重启买 债，债市情绪有望快速企稳。站在目前位置，对债市不应过度悲观。10年国债收益率在1.75%附近、30 年国债在2.0%附近具有较高性价比。策略上，可以逐步加仓博弈市场情绪回暖之后的修复行情。 近期，与权益市场回暖形成对比的，是债券市场的震荡走弱。以10年期国债收益率走势为例，数据显 示，今年7月初，10年期国债收益率一度跌破1.65%，而到了8月下旬，10年期国债收益率一度逼近 1.8%。 在债市震荡的当下，不少固收基金经理的操作开始变得积极。"固收+"基金经理王鹏（化名）在接受记 者采访时表示，尽管近期债市表现低迷，但自己已经开启了加仓节奏。 "在权益市场前 ...

分类型来看，货币基金在7月实现规模猛增3813.84亿元，QDII基金也增长超460亿。 股票基金和混合基金的规模在7月也分别增长1925.94亿、1385.56亿元，但份额却小幅下降。这意味着，随着市场回暖和基金收益上行，一些回本或减亏 的投资者正在赎回权益类产品。 股票市场回暖之际，公募基金总规模也再度实现突破。 7月底，我国公募基金总规模达35.08万亿元，首破35万亿元，并自2024年初以来第十次创历史新高。 此外，其他类型基金实现规模增长时，债券基金总规模却在7月下降。这是因为，在"股债跷跷板"效应的影响下，债券基金 正面临一定的赎回压力。不 过业内人士认为，债市未来仍有中长期配置价值，且随着债市的配置价值愈发突出，权益行情对于债市的压制在持续减弱。 公募基金总规模首次突破35万亿元 中基协发布的最新公募基金市场数据显示，截至2025年7月底，我国境内公募基金管理机构共164家，其中基金管理公司149家，取得公募资格的资产管 理机构15家。 2024年，我国公募基金总规模分别在当年的2月底、4月底、5月底、7月底、9月底、12月底六次创下历史新高。 2025年，我国公募基金总规模在4月底达到33.1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - After two consecutive weeks of adjustment in the bond market since mid - August, the decline has exceeded the previous round in late July, resulting in a certain degree of cost - effectiveness. Currently, the strategy should prioritize liquidity. There are opportunities in 3 - 5 - year bank secondary capital bonds after adjustment, and it is also advisable to participate in the sinking of weak - quality urban investment bonds with a maturity of 1 - 3 years. However, the ultra - long - term strategy may not be a good choice due to high market uncertainty [3][36] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Adjustment and Bond Performance - Since mid - August, the bond market has been continuously adjusting for two weeks, especially last week's adjustment exceeding expectations. Credit bonds declined synchronously, and the decline of major maturity varieties was higher than that of interest rates. The stock - bond "seesaw" effect continued, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high, and the bond market being insensitive to fundamental indicators, resulting in a continuous decline and rising yields [1][9] - From August 18 to 22, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y treasury bonds increased by 0.4BP, 3.2BP, 9.7BP, 8.1BP, and 3.8BP respectively. The yields of AAA medium - and short - term notes with the same maturities increased by 4.9BP, 6.6BP, 5.8BP, 7.6BP, and 4.6BP respectively, and the yields of AA+ medium - and short - term notes increased by 4.9BP, 6.6BP, 7.8BP, 6.6BP, and 5.6BP respectively [9][10] - The market of ultra - long - term credit bonds weakened synchronously, with most of the declines exceeding those of the same - maturity interest - rate bonds. The decline of highly liquid ultra - long - term secondary and perpetual bonds was the lowest, while the decline of ultra - long - term urban investment bonds with the poorest liquidity was relatively large. The yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y medium - term notes increased by 6.00BP and 7.00BP respectively, and the yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y urban investment bonds increased by 13.01BP and 11.00BP respectively. The yield of AAA - 10Y bank secondary capital bonds increased by 6.69BP, while the yield of 10Y treasury bonds increased by 3.53BP [11][12] 2. Performance of Secondary and Perpetual Bonds - The market of secondary and perpetual bonds weakened synchronously, but the "volatility amplifier" feature was not obvious. The declines of 1Y - 5Y were similar to those of general credit bonds, and the decline gap in the ultra - long - term part was also close to that of ultra - long - term credit bonds. Currently, the part of the curve with a maturity of 3 years and above is still 25BP - 35BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025. Compared with the sharp decline at the end of July, the yield points of bonds with a maturity of over 3 years have reached new highs, and the adjustment amplitude is higher than that of the sharp decline at the end of July [2][16] - In terms of active trading, the sentiment was the most pessimistic in the second week of August. Although the market was still adjusting last week, the marginal sentiment of secondary and perpetual bonds improved. From August 11 to 15, the proportion of low - valuation transactions of secondary and perpetual bonds was 5.00%, 0.00%, 100.00%, 5.00%, and 0.00% respectively, and the average trading duration was 0.74 years, 1.02 years, 3.81 years, 1.53 years, and 1.12 years respectively. From August 18 to 22, the proportion of low - valuation transactions was 0.00%, 100.00%, 17.07%, 100.00%, and 100.00% respectively, and the average trading duration was 0.65 years, 4.73 years, 1.03 years, 5.66 years, and 3.30 years respectively [2][18] 3. Institutional Behavior - Public funds and other trading desks continued to sell, but it was more of a portfolio rebalancing rather than a full - scale reduction. At the same time, allocation desks such as wealth management and insurance institutions moderately bought during the adjustment. Public funds reduced their holdings of secondary bonds of national and joint - stock banks with a maturity of 3 - 5 years, with the total selling scale in the past two weeks approaching 20 billion, but they also increased their holdings of secondary capital bonds with a maturity of 1 - 3 years. Public funds were not very willing to sell their core assets such as weak - quality urban investment bonds [3][29] - Allocation desks such as bank wealth management and insurance institutions bought opportunistically after the sharp decline in the bond market, but they were also cautious about the maturity, mainly focusing on varieties with a maturity of 3 years and below. Since August, the increase in the liability side of wealth management products has been limited, and the demand is not strong, but it is not a full - scale redemption [3][29] 4. Performance of Credit Bond ETF Products - Credit bond ETF products performed poorly during the market adjustment in the past two weeks, with weak scale growth and net - value performance. In terms of scale change, the weekly scale of credit benchmark market - making ETF products has shrunk for two consecutive weeks since the market adjustment in the second week of August, and the weekly scale of science and technology innovation ETF products has been significantly weaker in August than in July. In terms of unit net - value change, the unit net values of the above two types of credit bond ETFs have suffered losses for two consecutive weeks, and the loss scale increased last week. In addition, the average turnover rate of the above two types of credit bond ETFs dropped to a new low last week [33]

国内方面，两融继续增长，A股风险偏好高涨，国债收益率曲线长端上移，债券下跌，双创板块大涨。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周债券市场延续跌势。基本面和资金面仍支撑债市，但当前债市主要受风 险偏好影响。过去一段时间股市收益风险比高，存量市场里资金持续温和从安全资产流向风险资产，形 成显著"股债跷跷板"效应。上周鲍威尔在全球央行年会上的演讲超预期偏鸽，短期全球风险偏好将进一 步共振上升。当前债市点位已经具有配置价值，但短期风偏扰动仍存，建议逢调整适度配置，反向操 作，及时止盈，做好流动性管理。重视高票息资产的价值。 A股方面，近期A股市场呈现加速上涨趋势，两融等资金加速流入，市场成交量明显上涨。往后看，大 势维度，一是重点关注市场波动率变化，警惕是否有出现波动率加速抬升的迹象，二是关注增量资金变 化，尤其是两融的持续性问题、外资回流节奏等问题，近期两融交易热度开始进入极高状态，而主动型 外资则罕见开始出现回流迹象，这也指引市场投资范式可能的变化。结构上，近期市场主要风格、结构 间的分化程度进入历史高位，各强势风格方向中，大小风格切换已正在逐步发生。另外预防式降息下， 成长优于价值，结合大小风格变化，预计大盘成长亦将有 ...