Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 27, A-share market indices declined: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3340.69, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.61% to 10029.11, and ChiNext Index decreased 0.68% to 1991.64. Trading volume was 9989 billion yuan, down 110 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index adjusted, closing at 3839.40, down 20.71 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 27, Coke weighted index closed at 1365.2 yuan, down 12.8; Coking coal weighted index closed at 800.4 yuan, down 1.1. Coke's second - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton is expected to take effect on Wednesday. Some steel mills'开工 declined slightly, downstream demand weakened, and coke enterprises' inventory pressure increased. Some coking coal prices dropped, reducing coke enterprises' costs. For coking coal, some mines had production cuts, online auction failure rate rose, and inventory accumulated. Mongolian 5 raw coal price dropped to 760 - 780 yuan/ton [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the holiday, US sugar market was closed on Monday. Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated on Tuesday, closing slightly higher, and slightly lower at night due to short - selling pressure. Analysts expect Brazil's mid - south region's May 1 - 15 sugarcane crushing volume to be 4060 million tons, down 9.9% year - on - year, and sugar production to be 229 million tons, down 11.5% year - on - year [2]. Rubber - Heavy rainfall in Thailand may affect rubber tapping. Shanghai rubber rebounded on Tuesday and declined at night. In April 2025, global light - vehicle sales reached 7.32 million units, up 6% year - on - year [2]. Palm Oil - On May 27, palm oil rebounded at a low level. The main contract P2509 closed at 8044, up 1.13%. Malaysia's May 1 - 25 palm oil exports were 991702 tons, up 7.3% from the previous month. China's palm oil commercial inventory decreased to 360,000 tons, down 50,000 tons week - on - week [3][4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures rose slightly on May 27. Trump postponed EU import tariff increase to July 9. As of May 25, 2025, US soybean planting rate was 76%, higher than 66% last year. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 172 million tons. Domestically, on May 26, soybean meal futures rose. With more soybeans arriving, soybean inventory increased, oil mills' operating rate rose, and soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. Short - term demand growth is limited [4]. Live Pigs - On May 27, live pig futures fluctuated at the bottom, closing at 13560 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, slaughterhouses have stocking demand, but fresh pork sales are poor. In the long - term, the market supply is abundant, and the futures price is bearish [5]. Shanghai Copper - Trump's threat and rising US bond yields increased pressure on risk assets. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to April increased 1.4% year - on - year. Although high copper prices weakened domestic demand, continuous inventory reduction supported the spot price [5]. Iron Ore - On May 27, iron ore 2509 contract fell 1.76% to 698.5 yuan. Overseas shipments decreased, arrivals increased slightly, port inventory decreased, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. Asphalt - On May 27, asphalt 2507 contract rose 0.03% to 3516 yuan. Capacity utilization decreased, shipments increased, but supply may rise. With the rainy season in the south, demand may be suppressed, and prices will fluctuate [6]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13285 yuan/ton. On May 28, the lowest basis price was 680 yuan/ton, and inventory decreased by 23 lots [6]. Logs - On May 27, log 2507 contract opened at 764.5, closed at 755, with an increase of 159 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Port inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the market entered the off - season [6][8]. Steel - On May 27, rb2510 closed at 2980 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3111 yuan/ton. With the rainy season approaching, building material demand may decline seasonally, and plate consumption will enter the off - season. The steel market faces oversupply, and prices will fluctuate weakly [8]. Alumina - On May 27, ao2509 closed at 3018 yuan/ton. Tight spot supply and inventory reduction supported prices, but concerns about bauxite supply eased and increased production capacity limited price increases. The market lacks a one - sided trend [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 27, al2507 closed at 20040 yuan/ton. Although there are tariff impacts, strong demand, supply disruptions, and low inventory may support prices [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Battery - grade lithium carbonate prices continued to decline. The market is in oversupply, demand growth is limited, supply may increase, and cost support is weakening. Prices will remain weak [9].

5 月 28 日山东德州报价 2.9 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.2 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期随着端午临近，鸡蛋性价比尚可，终端消费预计增加，渠道及 下游采购需求或增加，叠加淘汰有所加速，缓解供应压力，预计对蛋价形成 支撑，不过 5 月新开产量较大，供应压力仍较大，且南方天气不利鸡蛋存 储，节后进入梅雨季节，渠道采购心态偏谨慎，需求承接或相对有限，整体 端午节日有利好，但高供应叠加天气，蛋价走势承压。中期来看，25 年 2- 4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 6-8 月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前 期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远 期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长期来看，经过上半年养殖利润 不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季度新开产或环比减少，关注三 季度换羽淘汰及鸡病情况。短期端午节提振，蛋价存支撑，不过供应较为充 足叠加需求转弱，蛋价走势承压，三季度供需双增，区间操作为主，四季度 供应压力或有所缓解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月 后限仓，谨慎追空，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待， 饲料养殖 ...

1. Market Performance and Analysis of Various Commodities 1.1 Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract decreased by 0.57% to 20,040 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 270 yuan/ton and an LME price of $2,444.5/ton. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity, while the aluminum product开工率 decreased slightly. The cost of electrolytic aluminum has recovered, and inventory has continued to decline. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a volatile trend, and the recommended operation is to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 1.37% to 3,018 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 245 yuan/ton. Some alumina plants have resumed production, and new production capacity has been released, leading to a slight increase in operating capacity. The situation at the Guinean mine end has eased, and the market's expectation of the resumption of some alumina production capacity has increased, causing the futures price to fall. However, the Guinean mining policy remains highly uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the zinc 2506 contract increased by 0.80% to 22,585 yuan/ton. The social inventory on May 26 was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from May 22. The zinc industry in Guangxi has carried out a ten - year back - checking special action, but currently, there is no actual impact. The import volume of zinc concentrates in April exceeded expectations, and smelters' raw material inventories are high. The supply side is relatively loose, and apparent consumption shows resilience. Overall, the long and short positions are in a stalemate, and the zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [1]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the lead 2506 contract increased by 0.15% to 16,805 yuan/ton. The social inventory on May 26 was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons from May 22. The new production capacity of recycled lead is being put into operation and resumed, increasing the demand for waste materials. The production of primary lead is relatively stable, and the supply in the spot market is loose. The demand for lead - acid batteries is weak. The contradiction between raw material supply and consumption has intensified, and the lead price is expected to maintain a small - range volatile trend. It is recommended to operate within the range [1][2]. 1.2 Industrial Silicon The main 07 contract closed at 7,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The supply side has not shown a significant contraction, and there is a high inventory pressure. The demand for polysilicon may decline in May, and the organic silicon industry has limited procurement of upstream products. The weekly output has declined to a new low after the festival, and the downward driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the supply changes after the festival. For speculative purposes, one can wait for the market to rebound and then short the 07 contract or consider shorting the near - month contract and going long on the far - month contract [2]. 1.3 Lithium Carbonate The main 2507 contract closed at 60,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.36% from the previous trading day. In May, the supply was still in an oversupply situation, with a decrease in weekly production and a slower - than - expected growth in demand. Although the sales of new energy vehicles in May have recovered, the growth rate is still gentle. The social inventory is high but shows a slight decline. It is recommended to continue holding short positions or shorting far - month contracts on rallies [2]. 1.4 Polysilicon The main 07 contract closed at 35,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 405 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply side's weekly production has been relatively stable in the past three weeks, and the production in May may decline compared to April. The inventory has decreased, but it is still relatively high. The demand side shows that the price of the component link has stopped falling, while the prices of the silicon wafer and battery cell links are still falling. It is expected that the production in June will decline by 5% - 7%. After the festival, the 06 - 07 contract may trade on the issue of warehouse receipts. After the warehouse receipt game is close to the end, one can consider shorting on the rebound of the 07 contract [2]. 1.5 Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The inventory of building materials in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 2.9% to 4.03 million tons, and the de - stocking margin has significantly slowed down. The supply - demand relationship of steel has weakened marginally but is in line with the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to go long on the 2510 contract of rebar [3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 696.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The shipment of Australian iron ore to China increased, while that from Brazil decreased. Steel mills' profits have marginally narrowed, and future production will be mainly stable. The supply side is in line with seasonal rules, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 798 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The iron water production has decreased, and steel mills' profits have marginally narrowed. The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and the second round has been proposed. The overall supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 1.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price rose slightly. The supply side shows that South America is currently supplying abundantly in the near - term, and the sowing of new - crop US soybeans is progressing smoothly. The demand side is mainly dominated by South America in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand for US soybeans is seasonally weak. The US soybean price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term driver lies in the yield game. The domestic soybean arrival volume will be high later, but the short - term demand for soybean meal is good, driving a rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to future trade policies and US soybean yields [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn fluctuated within a narrow range, and the price of deep - processed corn slightly decreased. The supply - demand relationship has tightened marginally this year. With farmers' grain sales basically completed, the bargaining power of channels has increased. The import volume of substitutes is expected to decrease significantly, which is beneficial to the demand for domestic corn. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The futures price has strong support near the minimum purchase price of wheat and is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%. The market expects an enhanced oversupply pattern in the global sugar market in the 25/26 crushing season, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. In May, the domestic market has entered the pure sales period. With the control of syrup and premixed powder and low inventory, the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, following the trend of raw sugar. Recently, the profit of out - of - quota imports has opened, and domestic sugar mills' point - price operations will put pressure on far - month contracts. It is expected to rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [5]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fell, and the international oil price weakened. As of May 25, the planting rate of new - crop US cotton was 52%, lower than the same period last year. The production in India in the 24/25 season decreased by 10.4% year - on - year. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton price continued to fluctuate. After the macro - level disturbances decreased, the market focus returned to the fundamentals. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded yesterday. The supply side is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and the estimated production in Malaysia from May 1 - 20 increased by 3.5% month - on - month. The demand side shows that the export has improved month - on - month. Although it is in the seasonal weak stage, there is no major contradiction. It is necessary to pay attention to future production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline, while the spot price rose. The farming is in a loss state, and the culling of old hens is expected to increase temporarily. However, the supply remains high, and with low vegetable prices and unfavorable storage conditions due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather, the supply is stronger than the demand. With cost support, the futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract of pigs fell, while the spot price rose. The supply of pigs continues to increase. With the narrowing of the price difference between standard and fattened pigs and rising temperatures, farmers' willingness to hold and fatten pigs has decreased, and they may gradually reduce the weight of pigs for sale. The utilization rate of pigsties has reached a high level, and the role of secondary fattening in boosting pig prices will gradually weaken. High - temperature weather has led to a seasonal decrease in pork consumption. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased, and the cost is low, so the pig price is expected to decline with fluctuations [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract closed at 7,583 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.13%. Due to the impact of extreme weather such as hot and dry winds and late frosts, the fruit - setting in apple - producing areas, especially in Shaanxi, has become a problem, raising concerns about the new - crop apple yield. With low current inventory and expected yield reduction, the apple price has temporarily remained at a high - level volatile state. The market has high expectations for the price of new - crop Gala apples, which supports the price of late - maturing Fuji apples. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the fruit - bagging verification at the end of May and future apple consumption [6]. 1.7 Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract of LLDPE fluctuated slightly yesterday. The low - price spot in North China was 7,060 yuan/ton, and the 09 basis weakened. New production facilities have been put into operation one after another, and the supply from domestic sources has increased. The import window has closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural films has entered the off - season, and other demands remain stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the actual situation of export - rush after the relaxation of Sino - US tariff negotiations. In the short - term, it is mainly volatile, and in the long - term, as new production facilities are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [7][8]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract closed at 4,790 yuan, a decrease of 0.3%. The PVC spot price dropped by about 50 yuan, and the volume of spot - futures point - price transactions increased. The supply side is a combination of maintenance and new - facility commissioning, and the supply growth rate is expected to reach about 5%. The inventory de - stocking has slowed down. It is recommended to gradually exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,850 [8]. - **PTA**: The CFR China price of PX is $840/ton, equivalent to 6,959 yuan/ton in RMB at the current exchange rate. The spot price of PTA in East China is 480 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 178 yuan/ton. The supply of PX has increased to a neutral level, and the import supply remains low. The supply of PTA has increased marginally, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure is still large. The polyester load has decreased slightly, and the polyester factories have announced production - cut plans. PX and PTA will continue to see inventory reduction. For PX, one can pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback, and for PTA, it is advisable to short the processing margin on rallies [8]. - **Rubber**: The main 2509 contract of natural rubber closed at 14,495 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87%. The raw material prices have slightly loosened, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly. The continuous large - scale cancellation of 20 - rubber warehouse receipts has led to a significant increase in the NR price, driving up the RU price. The fundamental situation is weak, and the expected increase in supply during the peak season suppresses the price. The RU price lacks upward driving force but has strong support around 14,000 yuan, and it is expected to enter a platform period. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Methanol**: The closing price of the methanol 2509 contract decreased by 0.72% to 2,208 yuan/ton, hitting a new low of 2,181 yuan. The coal price has continued to decline, providing weak cost support for methanol. The supply side has seen multiple large - scale domestic methanol plants restart, increasing the supply pressure. The overseas Iranian plants have all restarted, and the import volume is expected to gradually recover. The demand side shows that the olefin sector has been weak this year, and traditional demand has been lackluster after the May Day holiday. The inventory in coastal areas has increased. It is expected that the supply will be stronger than the demand in the short - term, and the methanol price will be weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended for the 09 contract [8][9]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass closed at 1,028 yuan, an increase of 0.3%. There are rumors that a production line in Hubei may stop production due to excessive petroleum - coke emissions, leading to a small - scale rebound in the market. The supply is rigid, and the daily melting volume is 157,500 tons. The inventory is at a high level, and the downstream deep - processing enterprises' operating rate is lower than in previous years. The glass price is likely to continue to decline. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9]. - **PP**: The main contract of PP fell slightly yesterday. The spot price of PP in East China was 7,030 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable. The short - term maintenance of production facilities is gradually ending, and new facilities are being commissioned, leading to an increase in domestic supply. The export window has opened, and the downstream home - appliance production plan for May is still good, while the automobile production plan is average. In the short - term, the supply and demand will both increase, and the market will be mainly volatile and slightly weak. In the long - term, as new facilities are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: The spot price of MEG in East China is 4,512 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 148 yuan/ton. The supply is at a moderately low level. Overseas, some plants are scheduled for restart or maintenance. The inventory in East China ports has decreased to around 680,000 tons. The polyester load has decreased slightly, and polyester factories have announced production - cut plans. The short - term supply and demand situation of MEG shows significant inventory reduction, and the price is expected to be strong, but the valuation has reached a high level, so it is advisable to be cautious when going long [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price slightly declined yesterday. The overall supply pressure in the crude oil market is large, and the probability of oversupply is high. There are many potential negative factors for crude oil, such as the return of Iranian supply, recession risks, and the risk of OPEC+ continuing to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day until the end of the year. It is recommended to use crude oil as a short - position allocation [9][10]. - **Styrene**: The main contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The inventory of pure benzene is at a normal level and is expected to slightly increase in June, while the styrene inventory is at a low level and is also expected to slightly increase in June. The downstream is in a loss state, and the finished - product inventory is being reduced. The home - appliance production plan for May is acceptable. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the relaxation of Sino - US tariff negotiations will lead to an increase in export - rush demand. In the short - term, the market will be mainly volatile, and in the medium - term, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short on rallies [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,232 yuan, a decrease of 0.7%. The supply side features a combination

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded, with the gold price dropping by over 1% and briefly falling below the $3000 mark. The US and EU are in trade negotiations, and although the risk of high - tariff imposition remains, the market is expecting a deal. The short - term trend of gold is volatile, and a new upward trend awaits a catalyst [11]. - The US consumer confidence index has risen, and the stock market has responded positively. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks persist, and the US stock market remains in a volatile state [20]. - For commodities, different products have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, while crude oil prices are affected by the OPEC+ meeting and are trending downward [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Florida has recognized gold and silver as legal tender. The EU and the US are in trade negotiations, and the gold price has dropped by over 1% and briefly fallen below $3000 due to the progress of the negotiations. The short - term gold price is volatile, and there is a risk of further decline [11]. - Investment advice: Be aware of the short - term decline risk and increased market volatility [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan's Ministry of Finance is considering reducing the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds, causing the yen to rebound and the US dollar index to rise in the short term [15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 448 billion yuan, with a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The decline in the bond market may be due to institutional behavior. The long - term view on the bond market remains positive, and a strategy of buying on dips and holding is recommended [17]. - Investment advice: Be bullish in the medium - term, and buy at appropriate times to accumulate low - cost positions [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US consumer confidence index in May rose to 98.0, but the durable goods orders in April decreased by 6.3% month - on - month. The market risk appetite has improved, and the three major stock indexes have risen significantly. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks remain, and the US stock market remains volatile [19][20]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [20]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18th to 19th. The profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the single - month growth rate in April rebounded to 3%. However, the revenue growth rate has declined, indicating that the boost from export rush to demand is less than expected [21][22]. - Investment advice: Adopt a balanced allocation strategy [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in June is about 10.5625 million tons, and the expected arrivals in July and August are 11 million tons and 9 million tons respectively. The US soybean planting rate is 76%, and the export inspection volume is at the lower end of the market expectation. The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal spot price is mixed [24][25]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a volatile mindset and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US relations [25]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in Ordos is stable. Towards the end of the month, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production, and the supply has tightened slightly. The power plant's daily coal consumption has increased slightly year - on - year, and the port coal price has stabilized at a low level. However, considering the high - level supply and the impact of new energy on summer consumption, the coal price is expected to decline in the future [26][27]. - Investment advice: Expect the coal price to decline in the future [27]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron and steel industry's profit from January to April was 1.692 billion yuan. The iron ore price is in a weak and volatile state. The terminal steel product price has broken through the key support level, and the market sentiment is poor. The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - Australia has launched an anti - dumping review of Chinese rebar. The steel price has continued to decline due to the expected weakening of demand and the collapse of the cost side. The market is in a negative feedback state, and the unilateral operation should be cautious [30]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term unilateral operations and consider hedging on spot price rebounds [31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot price is stable at a high level, and the market trading is flexible. The starch inventory has not changed much, and the downstream starch sugar demand is expected to increase seasonally. The regional price difference between North China and Northeast China is high but may decline slightly [32]. - Investment advice: The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [33]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn spot price is stable. The inventory of corn in Northeast China is low, and the trading is light. However, feed mills are expected to start restocking in June, which may drive up the price of corn and wheat. The corn price is expected to rise in the future [34]. - Investment advice: Both the corn spot and futures prices are expected to rise, and pay attention to the restocking of feed mills and wheat procurement policies in June [35]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Guizhou has partially resumed production. The alumina price has shown some changes in different regions, and the mineral price is firm [36][37]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [38]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The IEA warns that the global demand for refined copper will increase significantly before 2050, while the supply will decline. Some copper mines have production issues. The short - term copper price is affected by the strengthening US dollar index and is expected to trade in a high - level range [39][40][42]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage operations [43]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon spot price has slightly declined, and there are many market rumors. The production schedule for May and June is known, and the inventory situation varies among downstream enterprises. The decision of leading enterprises on production cuts will affect the market trend [45]. - Investment advice: Unilateral operations are risky. Consider taking profits on the PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 positive spreads [46]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some enterprises are building new industrial silicon furnaces, and some organic silicon plants are in the maintenance period. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The industrial silicon price lacks the impetus to rebound [47][49]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions and be aware of the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's nickel sulfide exports in March have increased. The LME has increased inventory, and the SHFE has decreased inventory. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be sufficient this year, but the price is supported by factors such as the rainy season. The nickel market is currently calm, and some enterprises have a willingness to cut production [50]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term and look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the medium term [51]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Chile is expected to start production in 2032. A domestic company plans to conduct futures hedging. The current market is dominated by the downward spiral of salt and ore prices, but the approaching delivery of the main contract and salt - factory maintenance may provide short - term support [52][55]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions or roll over contracts and be aware of price fluctuations during the contract roll - over [55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The refined - scrap lead price difference has narrowed. The primary lead production is stable, while the secondary lead production is affected by high costs and raw material shortages. The demand from battery factories is weak, but the lead inventory has decreased. The lead price may have a low - level buying opportunity in the medium term [56][57]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and start looking for medium - term low - level buying opportunities [57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A company's zinc concentrate production in the first quarter has decreased. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose in the future, while the demand is weak. The zinc price is recommended to be shorted [58]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to short on price increases and consider selling options. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for spreads and a long - short arbitrage strategy for the domestic - foreign market [59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ is trying to balance the market. The oil price has declined, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting results. An oversupply risk may suppress the oil price [5][60]. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has declined slightly and is in a narrow - range trading phase. The overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emissions in 2025 is expected to be loose, and the price may be under pressure [61][62]. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis has strengthened. The demand is at a high level, and the supply is below 80%, with inventory being depleted. The cost side is also favorable. The PTA price is expected to be stronger than the oil price [64]. - Investment advice: The PTA price and spreads are expected to remain strong in the short term [65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased. The supply is stable, and the demand from the alum - industry is good. However, the impact of the alum market on caustic soda is waning, and the caustic soda price may trade in a range [66]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda price is expected to trade in a range, and the alum market's impact has diminished [66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp price has declined. The market is in a weak state, and the price is expected to trade in a range [67]. - Investment advice: The pulp price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [68]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has declined, and the futures price is volatile. The downstream procurement has increased, and the market has improved slightly. The PVC price is expected to trade in a range [69]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [69]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has decreased, and the market trading is light. The industry is operating at a high level, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate at a low level [70][73]. - Investment advice: The bottle - chip processing margin is expected to remain low, and pay attention to supply - side changes [73]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is in a low - level range, and the futures price has declined due to new capacity. The spot market is weak, and the demand is sluggish [73]. - Investment advice: Short - term maintenance may support the price, but maintain a short - selling view in the medium term [74]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The glass futures price has risen due to rumors of production line shutdowns. The spot market is generally stable, with different regions showing different trends. The glass price is expected to remain in a low - level range [75]. - Investment advice: The glass price is expected to remain low, and pay attention to real - estate policy changes [75]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - A shipping line's express service has resumed. The European container freight rate is in a price - holding period, and there may be a second price increase in mid - to - late June. The US line's rush - shipping expectation has subsided [76][77]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on price dips due to market sentiment fluctuations [77].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Strong Buy (★★★)**: Soybean (Domestic), Corn [1] - **Buy (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] - **Neutral**: Not specified Core Views - The prices of domestic agricultural products show various trends, with factors such as policy, supply - demand, weather, and imports influencing them. Different products have different outlooks, including oscillations, potential rises, and declines [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybeans are in an oscillating trend after a recent price decline. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed. Imported soybeans have abundant supply from May to July due to large - scale arrivals from Brazil. Mid - term prices of both domestic and US soybeans are expected to be affected by weather, with a predicted oscillating and bullish trend [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean meal prices in most domestic regions are falling, with weakening spot basis and increasing inventory. Supply has become more abundant since May, and the market lacks a driver for continuous price increases [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The domestic futures market shows a pattern of strong meal and weak oil. The domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures are expected to follow the US soybean market. Both soybean and palm oil are expected to maintain an interval - oscillating trend, affected by factors such as supply and overseas production [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed products generally rose today, with rapeseed meal outperforming rapeseed oil. Mid - term policies may bring import bottlenecks, which will relieve supply pressure. The demand for rapeseed meal is promising, and a bullish strategy is recommended [6] Corn - Northeast corn prices are stable, while Shandong's purchase prices are weakening. North port inventories are below 4 million tons, and south port inventories are increasing. The market is expected to be oscillating and bearish in the next stage [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures market is weakly oscillating, and spot prices are slightly rebounding. Long - term supply is expected to recover, and downward pressure on spot prices may affect the futures market [8] Eggs - Egg futures prices are falling with increased positions, while spot prices are rebounding in many areas. After the Dragon Boat Festival, supply pressure may lead to further price drops, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the futures market [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Short - term geopolitical disturbances in the oil market are frequent, with significant uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine and US - Iran situations. In the short term, the oil price is expected to fluctuate, with Brent ranging from $60 to $70 per barrel. In the long term, if the price remains low in the second quarter and the hurricane season in the US in the third quarter is stronger than average, there is a driving force for the oil price to rebound [2]. - The asphalt market is relatively strong among oil products. With limited supply and low inventory, the peak - season expectation is relatively optimistic, and the BU main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3400 - 3600 [5]. - The domestic liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, with a weak fundamental situation due to increased supply and weak demand [7]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the near - month crack spread and monthly spread are at a high level, and the spot premium has started to rebound. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply continues to increase while the downstream demand is still weak [9]. - The natural gas price is expected to rebound due to increased demand intensity. In Europe, the gas price is supported by maintenance work, and the storage level is lower than last year [12][13]. - The PX market has an expected increase in supply, and the downstream PTA supply is also expected to rise, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the PX market is expected to be in a high - level shock [15]. - The PTA market has an expected increase in supply, a weakening export expectation, and a planned reduction in polyester production. The supply - demand relationship is weakening, and the processing fee may be compressed, with a high - level shock expected [18]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to maintain a tight - balance pattern in June, with a high - level shock in price [20]. - The short - fiber market has a limited supply loss, and the downstream has a pre - holiday restocking expectation, with a strong support for the processing fee, and a high - level shock is expected [21]. - The bottle - chip market has a gradually abundant supply and weak downstream receiving willingness, and the processing fee may be suppressed, with a shock consolidation expected [22]. - The styrene market has an expected increase in supply and a low - level increase in port inventory, with a weakening supply - demand relationship and a shock - weakening trend [24]. - The plastic and PP markets are weak in the short and medium term due to new production capacity and weak downstream demand [27]. - The PVC market is in a long - term supply - demand surplus pattern, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. The caustic soda market is short - term stable, but the medium - term direction is bearish [30][31]. - The soda ash market has an expected increase in supply, weak demand in the medium term, and a bearish trend with a slow decline [33][34]. - The glass market is in the off - season, with weak downstream demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost reduction and factory cold - repair in the medium term [36][37]. - The urea market has a large domestic supply and weak demand, and the short - term futures and spot are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the factory's order - receiving situation [38][39]. - The methanol market has a large supply and stable downstream demand, with a port inventory increase. It is recommended to short on rebounds [42][43]. - The corrugated paper and box - board paper markets have an increase in downstream replenishment enthusiasm, but the terminal demand is weak, and there is over - capacity pressure on small and medium - sized paper enterprises [44]. - The offset paper market has a stable supply and weak demand, and the price increase is difficult to transmit [46]. - The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see [48]. - The pulp market has a complex influencing factor situation, and it is recommended to wait and see for the SP main contract [52]. - The natural rubber market has a decline in production and consumption in April, and the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to hold short positions for the RU main contract and try long positions for the NR main contract [54][55]. - The butadiene rubber market has an increase in inventory and a bearish factor for the BR main contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [58]. Grouped by Industry Oil - **Market Review** - NYMEX crude futures were closed for the US Memorial Day holiday, Brent2507 contract was at $64.74, down $0.04 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. China INE crude futures main contract 2507 rose 1.7 to 456.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.5 to 455.9 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related Information** - As of the week ending May 20, the net long positions of traders in US light crude and Brent crude futures and options decreased by 631 lots, equivalent to a reduction of 631,000 barrels of crude oil [1]. - Eight OPEC+ countries that promised additional voluntary oil production cuts will hold a meeting on May 31 to decide on July's production [2]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term shock, medium - term weak [3]. - Arbitrage: Gasoline cracking weakens, diesel cracking weakens [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4]. Asphalt - **Market Review** - BU2507 closed at 3507 points at night (- 0.23%), BU2509 closed at 3461 points at night (- 0.20%) [4]. - On May 26, the spot price of asphalt in Shandong was 3450 - 3800 yuan/ton, in East China was 3520 - 3590 yuan/ton, and in South China was 3380 - 3500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Related Information** - At the end of the month, with the reduction of some expired contracts, the quotation of individual brands increased slightly. The demand in the north was stable, and the supply increased slightly. The demand in the south was affected by rainfall [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [5]. - Arbitrage: The asphalt - crude oil spread fluctuates at a high level [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review** - PG2507 closed at 4075 (+ 0.27%) at night, PG2508 closed at 4004 (+ 0.18%) at night [6]. - The spot price of domestic liquefied gas in South China was 4770 - 4880 yuan/ton, and the imported gas was 4820 - 5000 yuan/ton [6]. - **Related Information** - The South China market was stable, and the Shandong market had a small increase. The East China market was mainly stable [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy** - Not clearly mentioned in the report. Fuel Oil - **Market Review** - FU07 contract closed at 2976 (- 0.73%) at night, LU07 closed at 3501 (- 0.26%) at night [9]. - In the Singapore paper - trading market, the high - sulfur Jun/July spread decreased from 17.5 to 16.5 dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Jun/July spread increased from 8.5 to 8.8 dollars/ton [9]. - **Related Information** - The Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil market eased, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to rise. The fuel oil cracking spread in Asia decreased last week [9]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wait and see [10]. - Arbitrage: LU7 - 8 reverse arbitrage should stop profit at a low level [12]. - Options: Not clearly mentioned in the report. Natural Gas - **Market Review** - On Friday, the HH contract closed at 3.344 (+ 0%), the TTF closed at 37.253 (+ 2.2%), and the JKM closed at 12.585 (+ 0%) [12]. - **Related Information** - Last week, the US natural gas inventory increased by 120 bcf, higher than expected. The US natural gas production increased slightly to 106.1 bcf/d [12]. - **Trading Strategy** - HH unilateral: Buy on dips. TTF unilateral: Shock - strengthening [14]. - Arbitrage: Not clearly mentioned in the report. - Options: Not clearly mentioned in the report. PX - **Market Review** - The PX2509 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 0.33%) during the day and 6604 (- 1.05%) at night [14]. - The 6 - month MOPJ was estimated at $560/ton CFR. The PX price rose to $834/ton [14]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. An East - China PX plant's disproportionation unit restarted, and a 70 - million - ton PX unit in the Northeast was restarting [15]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [16]. - Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA [16]. - Options: Double - selling options [16]. PTA - **Market Review** - The TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+ 0.17%) during the day and 4690 (- 0.72%) at night [16]. - The spot price of PTA in May was at a premium of 165 - 170 over the September contract [16]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. A 100 - million - ton PTA unit in Southwest China restarted [17]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [18]. - Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA [18]. - Options: Double - selling options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review** - The EG2509 main contract closed at 4393 (- 0.23%) during the day and 4357 (- 0.82%) at night [18]. - The spot price of ethylene glycol was at a premium of 136 - 142 yuan/ton over the September contract [19]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The inventory of ethylene glycol in East - China main ports decreased by 5.6 million tons [19]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [20]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Sell call options [20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review** - The PF2507 main contract closed at 6430 (- 0.31%) during the day and 6394 (- 0.56%) at night [20]. - The price of direct - spinning polyester short - fiber in Fujian was stable, and the downstream purchased on demand [20]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The average production and sales of direct - spinning polyester short - fiber were 45% [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [21]. - Arbitrage: Short PTA and long PF [21]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review** - The PR2507 main contract closed at 6006 (+ 0.30%) during the day and 5976 (- 0.50%) at night [22]. - The trading volume of the polyester bottle - chip market was light [22]. - **Related Information** - The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was mostly stable, and a 20 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip unit in East - China stopped for maintenance [22]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Shock consolidation [23]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [23]. - Options: Sell call options [23]. Styrene - **Market Review** - The EB2507 main contract closed at 7195 (- 1.18%) during the day and 7110 (- 1.18%) at night [23]. - The price of styrene in Jiangsu in May was 7725 - 7800 yuan/ton [23]. - **Related Information** - As of May 26, the styrene inventory in East - China main ports increased by 2.25 million tons to 7.46 million tons. A 40 - million - ton styrene unit of Hanwha Total was shut down, and a 65 - million - ton unit was shut down due to a fault [24]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Shock - weakening [25]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [25]. - Options: Sell call options [25]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review** - The mainstream transaction price of LLDPE in North China was 7170 - 7400 yuan/ton, and that of PP in North China was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton [25]. - **Related Information** - The PE maintenance ratio was 21.8%, an increase of 3 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio was 18.9%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [26]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Weak in the short and medium term, hold short positions [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review** - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted, and the caustic soda price in Shandong increased slightly [27]. - **Related Information** - Shandong alumina manufacturers increased the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda. The price of some caustic soda products of Jinling changed [28][29]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: PVC holds short positions, caustic soda is short - term stable and medium - term bearish [32]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [32]. - Options: Wait and see [32]. Soda Ash - **Market Review** - The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1254 yuan/ton during the day and 1239 yuan at night [32]. - The spot price of soda ash in Shahe was 1250 yuan/ton [32]. - **Related Information** - As of May 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 7.45 million tons to 160.23 million tons [33]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Bearish, slow decline [35]. - Arbitrage: Short soda ash and long glass [35]. - Options: Wait and see [35]. Glass - **Market Review** - The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton during the day and 1016 yuan/ton at night [35]. - The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1156 yuan/ton [35]. - **Related Information** - A production line in Shahe was restarted. The market in East China was weak, and the price in Central China was mostly stable [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Price shock - weakening [38]. - Arbitrage: Long glass and short soda ash [38]. - Options: Wait and see [38]. Urea - **Market Review** - The urea futures closed at 1816 (- 1.14%). The spot price of urea decreased [38]. - **Related Information** - On May 26, the daily production of the urea industry was 20.68 million tons, an increase of 0.22 million tons. The current inventory increased from 80 million tons to 91 million tons [38]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term weak [40]. - Arbitrage: 91 positive arbitrage should be deployed at a low level [40]. -

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 旺季预期 震荡 | VS OPEC+增产，油价盘整。OPEC+持续增产，原油远月压力较大；夏季原油 | | | | 消费旺季即将到来；中美关税超预期下降，宏观面改善，市场风险偏好上升。SC【445-465】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气仓单不断攀升，盘面受到压制，油价偏弱； | | | | 下游利润不佳，但对美关税下降后，进口成本下降，开工率有上升预期。PG【4030-4080】 | | L | 偏弱 | 期现齐跌，社库去化速度放缓，本周装置计划重启增多，供给充沛；抢出口可持续性不 | | | | 强，农膜季节性淡季，反弹偏空。L【7050-7150】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 内需淡季，期现齐跌，5-7 月即将迎来新一轮投产高峰期，基本面供需格局偏弱，向下考 | | | | 验前低支撑位，反弹偏空。PP【6930-7030】 | | PVC | 偏弱 | 成本坍塌，开工高位窄幅下滑。5-6 月有多套新装置计划投产，出口尚存不确定性，基本 | | | | 面预期 ...

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月26日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 265400 | 265400 | O | 0.00% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 700 | 750 | -50 | -6.67% | 70/HP | | 长江 1#锡 | 265900 | 265900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -135.00 | -140.00 | 5.00 | 3.57% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -9130.99 | -8699.22 | -431.77 | -4.96% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.1 ...

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月26日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3180 | 3190 | -10 | 121 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | 151 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3320 | 3350 | -30 | 261 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3078 | 3097 | -19 | 102 | | | 螺纹钢10台约 | 3046 | 3061 | -15 | 134 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3059 | 3081 | -22 | 121 | | | 热卷现货 (华东) | 3260 | 3270 | -10 | 62 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | -8 | | | ...

宏观扰动减弱 有色金属继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-05-26 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 | C | 不长沉试券 WILL HIT | S B 长江湖景 | | --- | --- | --- | | | CHANGJIANG SECURITIES | CHANGJIANG FUTURES | 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | | | 宏观扰动减弱，但美方不断施压，中美仍在博弈，关税问题上反复的可能性仍存。基本面上，刚果（金）卡库拉部分地区因地震因素开采作业短期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位偏强震荡 | 暂停，巴拿马铜矿则复产前景不明，矿端干扰仍在持续。铜精矿现货TC跌至-44美元/吨一线有所企稳，冶炼厂成本压力限制了价格进一步下行空 | | | 铜 | 76000-79500 | 间 ...