证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 06 03 年 月 日 固定收益定期 出口运价回升——基本面高频数据跟踪 本期国盛基本面高频指数为 125.9 点（前值为 125.8 点），当周（5 月 26 日-5 月 30 日，以下简称当周）同比增加 5.0 点（前值为增加 4.9 点），同比增幅回升。利率债多空信号为多头，信号因子为 5.8%（前值 为 6.3%）。 工业生产高频指数为 125.4，前值为 125.3，当周同比增加 4.7 点（前值 为增加 4.7 点），同比增幅不变。 商品房销售高频指数为 44.8，前值为 44.9，当周同比下降 6.6 点（前值 为下降 6.6 点），同比降幅不变。 基建投资高频指数为 117.9，前值为 117.7，当周同比增加 1.2 点（前值 为增加 0.9 点），同比增幅扩大。 出口高频指数为 144.4，前值为 144.5，当周同比增加 6.5 点（前值为增 加 6.8 点），同比增幅收窄。 消费高频指数为 119.3，前值为 119.4，当周同比增加 1.4 点（前值为增 加 1.4 点），同比增幅不变。 物价方面，CPI 月环比预测 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market outlook for methanol has not improved, and it may continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [8][9][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the domestic methanol market continued to have an oversupply situation. The methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price was 2,222 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous week [6][11]. - In the spot market, the domestic methanol market continued its downward trend. The decline in the inland market was greater than that in the coastal market, and the arbitrage space from the inland to the coastal market reopened. As of May 29, the methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,255 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; in Guangdong, it was 2,285 yuan/ton, down 3.01%; in Ordos North Line, it was 1,931 yuan/ton, down 6.67%; and in Shandong Jining, it was 2,152 yuan/ton, down 5.36% [11]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, the methanol production in China increased slightly. The production was 1,966,685 tons, an increase of 5,090 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.19%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. The 100,000 - ton natural gas - to - methanol plant of Daqing Refining and Chemical was put into operation, and there were no new maintenance plants [12]. - **Downstream Demand**: - The MTO capacity utilization rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased significantly. As of May 29, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 84.61%, an increase of 15.83 percentage points from the previous week [17]. - The capacity utilization rates of other downstream products such as dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde showed different trends [17][19]. - **Inventory**: - As of May 28, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 355,000 tons, an increase of 18,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.64%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 249,900 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.24% [22]. - The port sample inventory of methanol continued to rise. As of May 28, 2025, the port sample inventory was 523,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65% [27]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average profit of domestic methanol samples decreased overall. The average profit of different production methods such as Hebei coke oven gas, Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol, and Shandong coal - to - methanol all declined [30]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the resumption of methanol plants is more than the maintenance, and the production is expected to be about 2,027,700 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 89.90%, an increase from last week [34]. - **Demand**: The olefin enterprises in Shandong and the Northwest regions may increase their loads, and the overall downstream demand is expected to be stable to positive [8][37]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 359,800 tons, a slight increase from last week [38]. - The port inventory is expected to continue to rise due to sufficient expected arrivals of foreign vessels and possible impacts on truck pick - up during the holiday [38]. In conclusion, the market outlook for methanol remains weak, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [39].

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月3日 5月16日 单位 5月23日 涨跌 张跌幅 地区 中国 343.00 341.00 0.59% 2.0 2.1 万/立方米 山东 192.00 189.9 1.11% 江苏 109.96 111.86 -1.9 -1.70% 需求: 日均出库量 (周慶) 2月16日 地区 5月23日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 中国 6.21 6.14 0.07 1% 万/立方米 3.20 0% 3.20 0.00 山东 江苏 2.29 3% 0.07 2.36 原木日均出库量(万方) 原木主要港口库存(万方) 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/11/1 2022 - 2023 ·2024 2025 =2022 =2023 = 2024 2025 辐射松3.8中A现货价(元/立方米) 辐射松4米中A:CFR价(美元/JAS立方米 220 870 200 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the A - share market showed narrow - range oscillations. The market is mainly pricing the progress of fundamental recovery, and the capital market's ability to boost valuations is limited. In June, with previous reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts already implemented, direct positive factors for the stock market are expected to be limited, and the market will likely continue to oscillate. The style - switching observation window in 2025 may be in August [3]. - The large - cap indices have outperformed small - cap indices for three consecutive months since March. The basis discount of stock index futures is relatively large, mainly affected by market hedging demand and periodic dividend factors [3]. - The Q1 2025 financial reports of A - share listed companies show a mixed performance. Although there are signs of profit recovery, it remains to be seen whether companies can maintain their Q1 net profit levels under the background of the tariff war, and the accounts receivable ratio is rising. The valuation of A - shares is at a historical median, and future quasi - stabilization funds are expected to maintain the overall stability of A - share valuations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Highlights of Stock Index Futures - **Market Oscillation**: In May, the A - share market had narrow - range oscillations. Wind All - A rose 2.39% monthly, CSI 1000 rose 1.28%, CSI 500 rose 0.7%, SSE 50 rose 1.73%, and SSE 300 rose 1.85%. The large - cap indices have outperformed small - cap indices for three consecutive months since March. In June, the stock market is expected to continue oscillating, and the style - switching window in 2025 may be in August [3]. - **Basis Discount**: The basis discount of stock index futures is relatively large. It mainly reflects market hedging demand, which depends on the existence of obvious Alpha returns. Dividend factors also have a significant impact on the basis discount. For example, the discount caused by dividends in CSI 1000 contracts ranges from 35 to 55 points [3]. - **Q1 Financial Reports**: After excluding finance, the year - on - year revenue growth rate of A - shares in Q1 was - 0.33%, and the net profit year - on - year was 3.4%. ROE was 6.34%, in the bottoming stage of a downward cycle. The performance of Q1 financial reports was mixed, indicating that the profitability of listed companies is still bottoming out, but there are signs of recovery [3]. 3.2 Market Conditions in May - **Index Performance**: The large - cap indices outperformed small - cap indices for three consecutive months. At the end of May, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond was 1.72%, the dynamic P/E ratio of Wind All - A was 18.93 times, and the equity risk premium declined slightly. The valuations of CSI 1000 and SSE 300 increased slightly compared to the previous month [15][17]. - **Volatility and Margin Funds**: The implied volatility of index options continued to decline, with 1000IV at 21.64% and 300IV at 15.96%. The margin balance remained unchanged for three consecutive weeks, with relatively little marginal capital. At the end of May, it was 1.792 trillion yuan [24]. - **Sector Performance**: In May, the banking, non - banking finance, and pharmaceutical biology sectors drove the index, while TMT and power equipment sectors performed weakly [25]. 3.3 Index and Option Indicators - **Index Performance and Basis Discount**: CSI 1000 rose 1.28% monthly, CSI 500 rose 0.7%, SSE 300 rose 1.85%, and SSE 50 rose 1.73%. The basis discount annualization of each index showed a divergent upward trend [35][41][46]. - **Option Indicators**: For CSI 1000, SSE 300, and SSE 50 options, historical volatility, volatility cones, position PCR, and trading PCR data are provided, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [48][57][65]. 3.4 Trading Slippage - Trading slippage data for IM, IC, IF, and IH are provided, including long - and short - position slippage, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [73][76][78]

切货:山西最优交割品仓单857元/吨,唐山蒙5仓单813元,金泉蒙5精煤仓单948元/吨,焦煤最优交割品仓单813元/吨,日照港湿熄焦 炭仓单1340元/吨,山西湿熄焦炭仓单1382元/吨,邢台干熄焦炭仓单1395元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1、Mysteel首席分析师汪建华预计,6月钢铁市场大概率呈现供需双弱的态势,只要控产政策不落地,钢铁价格就还要探新低。操作 上,钢厂在亏损时更要积极落实政策性控产要求,贸易商要"不见兔子不撤鹰",终端用户,按需灵活采购。 4、美国总统特朗普表示,6月4日起,将把钢铁和铝的进口关税从25%提高至50%。 宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 1331.5 | 0.056T | -1 ...

光期研究 见微知著 棉 花 策 略 月 报 2 0 2 5 年 0 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：基本面驱动有限，区间略偏弱运行为主 库存端：棉花商业库存环比下降，目前位于近年来同期低位水平，纺企原材料库存持稳，织厂原料库存储备下降，产成品库存累积。 p 2 棉花：基本面驱动有限，区间略偏弱运行为主 总 结 供应端：2025/26年度全球棉花产量预计变化有限，巴西棉花产量再创历史新高，美国棉花产量预计同比持平，中国棉花继续丰产概率较大。 1、USDA5月报预计2025/26年度全球棉花产量为2565.1万吨，同比下降71万吨，降幅为2.7%。2、USDA5月报预计2025/26年度中国棉花产量为631.4万吨，同比下降65.3 万吨，降幅为9.4%，市场认为USDA过于低估2025/26年度中国棉花产量预计值，最终产量或同比基本持平。3、2025/26年度巴西棉花产量预估为397.4万吨，同比增加 7.4%；美国棉花产量预计值为315.7万吨，同比增加0.6%。4、USDA5月报预计2025/26年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the price of liquid caustic soda has stopped declining and has begun to rise after eight weeks of continuous decrease, indicating a potential market recovery [1] - Factors driving the price rebound include supply and demand dynamics, which are crucial for understanding the market trends [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the recent price movements are significant for stakeholders in the caustic soda market, as they reflect changes in market sentiment and economic conditions [1] - A detailed analysis of the supply-demand interplay is provided, which is essential for forecasting future price trends [1]

Group 1 - The report does not mention the investment rating for the industry [1] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the prices of different agricultural products show different trends, with corn expected to fluctuate upward, soybean meal to fluctuate and rise, oils and fats to fluctuate weakly, eggs to fluctuate weakly, and live pigs to fluctuate [1] Group 3 - The prices of different agricultural products show different trends. Corn prices are expected to fluctuate upward, with short - term fluctuations ending and prices resuming upward. In the northeast region, mainstream corn prices rose slightly, and some deep - processing enterprises also raised their purchase prices. In North China, corn prices were generally stable with a slight weakness [1] - Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate and rise. CBOT soybeans closed higher on Thursday, but favorable weather in the central United States limited price increases. Domestic soybean meal showed a narrow - range fluctuation, with funds mainly flowing out. The supply pressure of soybean meal is postponed to mid - June [1] - Oils and fats prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. BMD palm oil rose for the fifth consecutive day on Thursday, and high - frequency data previously showed that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% - 11.6% month - on - month. Indonesia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for June. Domestic palm oil increased in positions and reached a two - week high [1] - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Egg futures prices rebounded from a low level on Thursday. Spot egg prices were stable, with supply increasing until August. The supply - demand fundamentals are bearish, and egg prices are expected to remain weak until there is an unexpectedly large increase in culling. However, egg prices in low - price areas have fallen below the cost line, so the downward space for later egg prices is relatively limited [1] - Live pig prices are expected to fluctuate. On Thursday, the live pig futures contract 2509 broke through the integer support of 13,500 yuan, then rebounded due to the positive sentiment of the macro and surrounding commodities. Spot pig prices were stable with a slight strength this week [1] Group 4 - US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows that private exporters reported selling 101,096 tons of corn to unknown destinations and 104,000 tons to Mexico, all for the 2024/2025 sales year [3] - White House trade advisor Navarro said that there is undoubtedly an economic emergency in the US, and the government has multiple options on trade issues. The government has a high chance of winning in court rulings and appeals regarding trade issues [3] - Agricultural information agency Sovecon reported that Russia's grain exports in 2025/26 are expected to be 4.94 billion tons, lower than 5.02 billion tons in 2024/25. Russia's wheat exports in 2025/26 are expected to be 4.08 billion tons, an increase of 110 million tons compared to the previous year [3] - Malaysian Minister of Plantation and Commodities announced that Malaysia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground - transport vehicles from B10 to B20 [3]

SMM 电池级碳酸锂指数价格 61233 元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 562 元/吨；电池级碳酸锂 5.95-6.23 万元/吨，均价 6.09 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 600 元/吨；工业级碳酸锂 5.88-5.98 万元/吨，均价 5.93 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 600 元/吨。（上海有色网） 2025 年 5 月 30 日 碳酸锂：去库速度偏缓，走势或仍偏弱 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 58,860 | -1,520 | -3,280 | -5,260 | -9,440 | -18,660 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 386,145 | -1,995 | - ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年5月29日 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒5月21日消息:世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据报 告显示, 2025年3月，全球锌板产量为108.74万吨,消费量为113.35万吨， 供应短缺4.6万吨。1-3月,全球锌板产量为328.31万吨,消费量为338.48万 吨,供应短缺10.16万吨。3月,全球锌矿产量为100.78万吨。1-3月，全球锌 矿产量为296.11万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22910，基差+700；偏多。 3、库存：5月28日LME锌库存较上日减少7700吨至143450吨，5月28日上期 所锌库存仓单较上日增加0吨至1774吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,20日均线向下；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净空头，空增；偏空。 6、预期：LME库存仓单继续下降；上期所仓单保持低位；沪锌ZN2507：震 荡走弱。 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项 ...