合成橡胶产业日报 2025-05-12 涨，注意风险控制。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 370 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11820 | | 25672 | 1552 | | | 合成橡胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) -45 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | -145 | | 7210 | -60 ...

晨报 铝锭 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 12 日 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪支撑 关注消费和库存验证 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价偏强震荡，运行重心小幅上移。上周会议结束后首批发 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of aluminum is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [5][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2506 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly showed an oscillating and weakening trend, ranging from around 19,310 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,050 yuan/ton [2][9]. - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the contract price running around 2,377 - 2,460 US dollars/ton [12]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 19,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 19,640 yuan/ton, 19,840 yuan/ton, 19,665 yuan/ton, and 19,635 yuan/ton respectively. As of the same date, the premium or discount of electrolytic aluminum remained around par, unchanged from the previous trading day [15]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - In April 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of alumina was 87.4 million tons, with a total capacity of 110.82 million tons and an operating rate of 78.87%. The domestic operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. As of April 2025, the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.099 million tons, with a total capacity of 45.182 million tons and an operating rate of 97.6%. From a seasonal perspective, the operating rate was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [21]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 169,665 tons, a decrease of 6,192 tons from the previous week. As of May 8, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 405,575 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 38.13%. - As of May 8, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous day. The inventories in Shanghai, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Foshan, Tianjin, Shenyang, Gongyi, and Chongqing were 31,000 tons, 196,000 tons, 14,000 tons, 237,000 tons, 20,000 tons, 1,000 tons, 74,000 tons, and 7,000 tons respectively [27]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve admitted that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased, and "the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased." In April, the one - year inflation expectation in the US remained stable at 3.6%, while the three - year inflation expectation rose from 3% to 4.2%, reaching the highest level since July 2022. The inflation expectation in the US has risen, and the pressure on the employment market has increased. - The total capacity of alumina continues to grow, while the in - production capacity has decreased. The capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to climb, and the operating rate remains at a high level. The inventory of Shanghai aluminum continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly [4][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Urea - Despite high daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline in daily output. The new export policy allows the release of supportive export orders from May to June, and the upcoming summer top - dressing season in May - June is expected to boost agricultural demand. Market price increases are likely to be cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [3]. Crude Oil - Oil prices continued to rise, driven by the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical uncertainties. In the short term, the market risk appetite has increased, but no strong trend has been formed yet, and the sustainability of the macro - drive needs to be observed. The monthly - line fluctuation ranges are adjusted to [57, 67] for WTI, [60, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [7]. Styrene - Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium term, putting pressure on chemical products. Pure benzene supply has decreased recently, but overall supply pressure remains due to imports. Styrene downstream demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for styrene, with the upper resistance for the near - term contract at 7300 [13]. PE and PP - For LLDPE, although imports are expected to decline significantly from May to June and supply pressure will gradually decrease, inventory pressure is still large under the situation of weak supply and demand, and there is a long - term downward risk. For PP, supply pressure eases slightly during the second - quarter maintenance season, but production is still high, demand is weakening, and there is also a long - term downward risk [17]. Caustic Soda - In the medium - to - long term, the demand for caustic soda from alumina is insufficient, and new production capacity is being added, so the supply - demand outlook is weak. In the short term, caustic soda is in the maintenance phase, and the price has been supported. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy, with the near - term resistance at 2550 [26]. PVC - The supply - demand surplus of PVC is prominent. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are mainly based on price - for - volume. The long - term surplus problem is difficult to solve, and the price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, but there is a risk of price rebound during the maintenance period [26]. Methanol - The inland valuation has a downward pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a stock - building period, and the MTO low - operation rate suppresses demand. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies [35][38]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Tight supply and short - term strong demand support its price, but the rebound space is limited. PX09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and PX9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread situation [40]. - PTA: The supply - demand pattern remains tight in the short term, and the price is expected to be relatively strong compared to oil prices, but the rebound is suppressed. TA09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and TA9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread and medium - term reverse spread situation [40]. - MEG: Domestic supply is expected to increase in May, but short - term de - stocking is expected due to high polyester load and reduced imports. EG09 is expected to be strong in the short term [40]. - Short - fiber: Inventory pressure is low in the short term, but the driving force is weaker than that of raw materials. The processing fee is under pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [40]. - Bottle - chip: Supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. The processing fee is supported, and the main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 550 yuan/ton [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - The prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all increased, with increases ranging from 0.22% to 1.26% [1]. Contract Spreads - The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01, and UR - MA main contracts changed, with changes ranging from - 16.00% to 44.83% [1]. Main Positions - The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, with the long positions increasing by 2.05% and the short positions increasing by 2.51%. The long - short ratio decreased slightly [1]. Upstream Raw Materials - Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, except for the port price of steam - coal in Qinhuangdao, which decreased by 0.78% [1]. Spot Market Prices - Spot prices in most regions increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 2.16% [1]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily production decreased slightly, with a 1.20% decline in domestic daily urea production. Weekly production increased slightly by 0.21%, and factory inventory decreased by 10.58% while port inventory increased by 12.71% [3]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 1.34%. Spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [7]. Product Prices and Spreads - Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 0.71%. Spreads also changed [7]. Crack Spreads - Crack spreads of various refined products changed, with increases ranging from 0.28% to 4.28% for some products and decreases for others [7]. Styrene Upstream - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 0.8% to 2.5%. The opening rates of domestic pure benzene and styrene increased [10][13]. Spot and Futures - The spot price of styrene in East China decreased slightly by 0.1%, while futures prices EB2506 and EB2507 increased by 1.0% and 1.1% respectively [11]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - Overseas quotes of styrene increased slightly, but the import profit decreased by 11.4% [12]. Industry Chain Inventory - Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports decreased, while inventories of some downstream products also changed [13]. PE and PP Prices and Spreads - PE and PP futures prices mostly decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed. Spot prices also decreased slightly [17]. Non - standard Prices - Most non - standard PE and PP prices decreased or remained stable [17]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - PE and PP device opening rates decreased, and downstream weighted opening rates also decreased slightly [17]. Inventory - PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, with increases of 38.99% and 19.76% respectively [17]. Caustic Soda and PVC Spot and Futures - For caustic soda, the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased by 0.7%. For PVC, the prices of some futures contracts changed, with increases or decreases [21]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 1.3%, and the FOB price of PVC in Tianjin decreased by 1.6% [22][23]. Supply - The opening rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased slightly [24]. Demand - The opening rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [25][26]. Inventory - The PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [26]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - Methanol futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and regional spreads also changed [35]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory and port inventory increased, and the weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [35]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise opening rate increased, and the downstream MTO device opening rate increased [35]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 1.0% to 2.5% [40]. PX - related - PX prices and spreads changed, with the CFR China PX price increasing by 0.9% [40]. PTA - related - PTA prices and spreads changed, and the processing fees of PTA also changed [40]. MEG - related - MEG prices and spreads changed, and the port inventory decreased slightly [40]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - Prices of POY, FDY, etc. increased, and cash flows and processing fees of polyester products also changed [40]. Industry Chain Opening Rates - Opening rates of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [40].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported a rise of 4.24 points to 1345.17 as of May 9, while the China Export Container Freight Index decreased by 1.3% to 1106.38 [1] - Mysteel's survey indicated that the operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills reached 84.62%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points week-on-week and up 3.12 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average daily pig iron output was 2.4564 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.022 million tons [1] Group 2 - The General Administration of Customs and six other departments announced adjustments to management measures for customs special supervision zones, effective June 10, 2025 [2] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 to 10 totaled 293,991 tons, a decrease of 9% compared to the same period last month [2] - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association urged major nitrogen fertilizer companies to reduce urea factory prices within three days to not exceed levels prior to May 6 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillation [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Guinea ore has further decreased, and there are uncertainties in new alumina investments in China. Alumina supply and demand and costs still face pressure, but the price valuation is not high, and some negative factors have been priced in. The futures price may gradually enter the bottom - grinding stage [1][15] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices were on a downward trend last week. Shanxi 58/5 ore was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 668 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. After the May Day holiday, mine inspections were strengthened. Domestic ore supply remained tight. Imported Guinea mainstream 45/3 ore price dropped to 75 dollars/dry ton (CIF). Newly - arrived ore during the period was 4.747 million tons, including 4.11 million tons from Guinea. The freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly to 19 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose last week. The northern comprehensive price was 2870 - 2930 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2913.6 yuan/ton, up 22.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was flat. After the holiday, downstream enterprises had a strong willingness to replenish stocks. The domestic alumina full - cost was 2962 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of - 59 yuan/ton. The number of domestic alumina enterprises under maintenance and production cuts was increasing. The national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons from before the holiday, and an operating rate of 78.2% [3][13] - **Demand**: There were no changes in domestic and overseas demand. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.923 million tons, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.408 million tons, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [13] - **Inventory**: As of May 8, the national alumina inventory was 3.288 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons from before the holiday. Alumina enterprise inventories and electrolytic aluminum enterprise inventories both decreased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 249,763 tons, a decrease of 28,850 tons from last week. The supply shortage led to inventory reduction, and the uncertainty of new project investment led to a rebound in the futures price [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - On May 9, 200,000 tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at 2900 yuan/ton [16] - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong had its third 1 - million - ton production line put into operation in mid - April. The production was mainly concentrated on the front - end of aluminum hydroxide, and the finished product was expected to be produced by the end of the month. The alumina roasting volume was difficult to increase in the short term [16] - 500,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at 3000 yuan/ton for long - term orders [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report provided data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, bauxite port inventory, shipping volume, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It included domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [31][33][38] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It covered the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions [41][44][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures price is weakly operating due to weakened cost support. The black series is performing sluggishly, and the market lacks confidence in long-term demand. It is recommended to conduct short-side trading on the HC2510 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [2][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of the close on May 9, the futures price of the main hot-rolled coil contract was 3157 yuan/ton (-47 yuan), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot-rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton (-20 yuan) [7] - Hot-rolled coil production continued to increase to 320.38 million tons (+1.08 million tons) [7] - Terminal demand was blocked, and the apparent demand declined. The current apparent demand was 309.53 million tons (-23.19 million tons), (year-on-year +0.89 million tons) [7] - Factory inventories declined, and social inventories increased. The total inventory was 365.12 million tons (+10.85 million tons), (year-on-year -56.37 million tons) [7] - The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points from last week and 6.92 percentage points from last year [7] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%, and the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement. Domestically, China and the US will hold high-level economic and trade talks, and the central bank took measures to stabilize the property market [9] - Supply and demand aspect: The weekly production of hot-rolled coils continued to increase slightly, with a capacity utilization rate above 80%. Factory inventories declined, social inventories increased, and the total inventory ended its consecutive decline. Terminal demand was blocked, and the apparent demand declined [9] - Cost aspect: The import volume of iron ore increased significantly, and the supply increase expectation strengthened, with the ore price oscillating weakly. Coking coal production was normal, with a high coking coal auction failure rate. The demand for coke still had rigid support, but the market was cautious due to the rumor of crude steel production reduction [9] - Technical aspect: The daily K-line of the HC2510 contract was under pressure below multiple moving averages, and the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0-axis [9] - Strategy recommendation: Conduct short-side trading on the HC2510 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - This week, the futures price oscillated weakly. The HC2510 contract oscillated weakly and performed stronger than the HC2601 contract, with a spread of -8 yuan/ton on the 9th, a week-on-week increase of 20 yuan/ton [11][14] - This week, the hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the net long position of the top 20 holders increased. On May 9, the warehouse receipt volume was 297,005 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 37,011 tons, and the net long position of the top 20 was 149,883 contracts, an increase of 31,815 contracts from last week [17][21] - This week, the spot price decreased. On May 9, the spot price of Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3314 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The spot price was stronger than the futures price, with a basis of 83 yuan/ton on the 9th, a week-on-week increase of 7 yuan/ton [23][25] 3.3 Upstream Market - This week, the spot price of iron ore decreased, and the spot price of coke remained flat. On May 9, the price of 61% Australian MacPhearson iron ore at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/dry ton, a week-on-week decrease of 7 yuan/dry ton, and the spot price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1540 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0 yuan/ton [28][30] - The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.404 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.18 million tons. The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 26.344 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.452 million tons [32][34] - This week, the iron ore port inventory declined. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 147.6471 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8356 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.2851 million tons, a decrease of 0.1673 million tons [36][38] - This week, the coking plant capacity utilization rate decreased, and the coke inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.05%, a decrease of 0.38%. The daily coke output was 535,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons [40][42] 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - From January to April, the steel export volume increased year-on-year. In March 2025, the crude steel output was 92.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. From January to April, the steel export volume was 37.891 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [43][45] - The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased. On May 9, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.62%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points from last week, and the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 92.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points from last week [46][48] - The total hot-rolled coil inventory decreased. On May 8, the hot-rolled coil inventory in factories was 848,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 700 tons, and the social inventory in 33 major cities was 2.8032 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 115,500 tons [49][53] 3.4.2 Demand Side - The production and sales of automobiles and home appliances increased year-on-year. From January to March 2025, the total automobile production was 7.561 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and the total sales were 7.47 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [54][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, OPEC's production increase has been fulfilled as scheduled. It is recommended that investors gradually take profits on dips, and it is not advisable to chase short positions excessively in the short term. In the current situation of low static inventory, going long on the positive spread on dips is still a good position [1]. - The domestic methanol supply is expected to continue to rise, imports will gradually increase, and traditional demand will gradually weaken. The supply - demand pattern will gradually weaken, and prices still face downward pressure. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies for single - sided trading, and pay attention to reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 spread [3]. - For urea, it is expected that there will be some support at the bottom, and prices will tend to be strong. Traders with long positions at low levels can continue to hold, while those not in the market should wait for the market sentiment to cool down before considering long positions. The inter - month spread should focus on positive spreads on dips [5]. - Rubber prices have returned to range - bound trading. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. - For styrene, pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [13]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation [15]. - Polyethylene prices are expected to remain volatile in the short and medium term, while polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in May [17][18]. - PX and PTA are in the maintenance season, with short - term valuation support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil. For ethylene glycol, the focus is on whether the inventory reduction expectation can be realized [20][21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose by $2.33, or 4.02%, to $60.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose by $2.17, or 3.56%, to $63.12; INE main crude oil futures fell by 7.20 yuan, or 1.54% [6]. - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.22 million barrels to 13.43 million barrels, a 1.63% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.18 million barrels to 8.91 million barrels, a 2.05% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.93 million barrels to 20.54 million barrels, an 8.59% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.54 million barrels to 42.88 million barrels, a 3.46% decrease [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 09 contract fell by 23 yuan/ton to 2216 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell by 42 yuan/ton, with a basis of +164 [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic enterprise start - up rates are gradually rising, and production is at a historically high level. Supply will continue to increase, imports will rise, and traditional demand will weaken [3]. - **Profit**: Enterprise profits have declined due to weak spot prices but remain at a high level overall. Future profits are expected to shift downstream, and production profits are expected to be further compressed [3]. - **Strategy**: Focus on short - selling on rallies for single - sided trading, pay attention to reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 spread, and look for long - position opportunities for the 09 contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 09 contract fell by 4 yuan/ton to 1882 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +18 [5]. - **Policy and Market**: The fertilizer export symposium pointed out that May - September is the fertilizer export window, and urea exports to India are prohibited. The total fertilizer export volume should not exceed the 2023 level. It is likely that partial exports will be gradually liberalized, but the intensity will be limited [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is gradually increasing, and the domestic market is in the peak season for summer top - dressing demand. Exports are highly uncertain [5]. - **Strategy**: Traders with long positions at low levels can continue to hold, while those not in the market should wait for the market sentiment to cool down before considering long positions. The inter - month spread should focus on positive spreads on dips [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices have returned to range - bound trading, showing relative strength among industrial products [8]. - **Supply - Side Policy**: Thailand intends to postpone rubber tapping for one month to counter US tariff threats. If strictly implemented, rubber production is expected to decrease by 20 - 30 tons, but the market anticipates that the actual reduction may be less than 20 tons [9]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Tire factory start - up rates are declining. As of May 8, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up rate in Shandong was 44.75%, down 9.59 percentage points from last week and 4.44 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up rate was 57.98%, down 11.14 percentage points from last week and 18.11 percentage points from the same period last year. As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 135.5 tons, a 0.12% increase [10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [11]. 3.5 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 06 contract closed at 6936 (-105) yuan/ton, and the Jiangsu spot price was 7140 (-100) yuan/ton, with a basis of +204 (+8) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side maintenance has ended and production is restarting, while demand remains weak. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are declining, and the production plans of white - goods manufacturers are weakening [13]. - **Inventory**: The absolute inventory at ports is at a low level, and inventory reduction this week may limit the decline in styrene prices [13]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [13]. 3.6 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell by 37 yuan to 4839 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4660 (-40) yuan/ton, with a basis of -179 (-3) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall start - up rate of PVC is 79.3%, a 0.7% week - on - week increase. The downstream start - up rate is 43.9%, a 4.2% decrease. Factory inventory is 41.1 tons (-0.9), and social inventory is 64 tons (-4.8) [15]. - **Cost and Profit**: Cost remains stable, and the profit pressure of integrated enterprises is high. There are still many maintenance plans for calcium - carbide - based production facilities [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, although inventory is being reduced rapidly, the supply - demand situation is weak. Further inventory reduction depends on maintenance intensity and exports. PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15]. 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices are falling. The main contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decrease, and the spot price was 7335 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan decrease, with a basis of 319 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan weakening [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the second quarter, new production capacity on the supply side is large, and the supply side may face pressure. The seasonal off - season is approaching, and demand for agricultural films is decreasing [17]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory is 57.54 tons, a 16.14 - ton increase, and trader inventory is 6.06 tons, a 0.75 - ton increase [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the downward trend is dominated by supply - side production capacity start - up. In the medium and long term, only a 50 - ton ExxonMobil No. 3 device is expected to start production in May, and prices are expected to remain volatile [17]. 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices are falling. The main contract closed at 6985 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan decrease, and the spot price remained unchanged at 7280 yuan/ton, with a basis of 295 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan strengthening [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, there is no new production capacity on the supply side, and maintenance is at a high level. The downstream start - up rate is expected to decline seasonally [18]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory is 67.64 tons, an 11.16 - ton increase; trader inventory is 14.27 tons, a 1.32 - ton increase; and port inventory is 7.79 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase [18]. - **Outlook**: Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in May [18]. 3.8 PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose by 116 yuan to 6404 yuan, and PX CFR rose by 10 dollars to 778 dollars, with a basis of 59 yuan (-27) and a 9 - 1 spread of 70 yuan (+34) [19][20]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: PX is still in the maintenance season. Chinese PX operating rate is 73%, and Asian operating rate is 67.9%. There are device restarts and maintenance [20]. - **Inventory and Import**: In April, South Korea's PX exports to China were 39 tons, a 9 - ton increase. Inventory at the end of March was 468 tons, unchanged month - on - month [20]. - **Valuation and Cost**: PXN is 206 dollars (+13), and naphtha crack spread is 115 dollars (+15) [20]. - **Outlook**: In the second quarter, domestic inventory is expected to continue to decline. The terminal textile and clothing orders are weak, and the industry faces medium - term negative feedback pressure. However, short - term terminal restocking has alleviated polyester inventory pressure, and the risk of negative feedback is postponed. The short - term valuation has support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil [20]. 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose by 80 yuan to 4546 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 50 yuan to 4615 yuan, with a basis of 120 yuan (+12) and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 yuan (+62) [21]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: PTA is in the maintenance season, with an operating rate of 70.3%, a 7.4% decrease. There are device restarts and maintenance [21]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The downstream operating rate is 94%, a 0.6% increase. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates are rising [21]. - **Inventory**: On May 6, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 254.2 tons, a 14.7 - ton decrease [21]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Spot processing fee decreased by 8 yuan to 375 yuan, and on - paper processing fee increased by 4 yuan to 345 yuan [21]. - **Outlook**: The industry faces medium - term negative feedback pressure, but short - term terminal restocking has alleviated polyester inventory pressure, and the risk of negative feedback is postponed. PTA short - term valuation has support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil [21]. 3.8.3 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose by 23 yuan to 4222 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 7 yuan to 4262 yuan, with a basis of 70 yuan (+14) and a 9 - 1 spread of -7 yuan (+15) [22]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: The ethylene glycol operating rate is 69%, a 0.6% increase. There are device restarts, maintenance, and production - rate adjustments [22]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The downstream operating rate is 94%, a 0.6% increase. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates are rising [22]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 79 tons, a 1 - ton decrease [22]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Naphtha - based production profit is -529 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production profit is -673 yuan, and coal - based production profit is 966 yuan. Cost remains stable [22]. - **Outlook**: The industry is in the inventory - reduction stage, but the actual inventory - reduction extent is limited due to high hidden inventory. The industry faces medium - term negative feedback risk, and the focus is on whether the inventory - reduction expectation can be realized [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday opening, avoid chasing high prices and focus on the opportunity for small and medium - cap stocks to release elasticity. Consider long positions mainly in CSI 1000 (IM) [1]. - Factors such as asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1]. - Gold will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - Many commodities in different sectors are expected to oscillate due to various factors such as trade frictions, policy uncertainties, and supply - demand imbalances. Some commodities are expected to decline or rise based on specific supply and demand situations [1]. Summary by Industry Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: It is expected to oscillate. After the holiday opening, avoid chasing high prices and focus on the opportunity for small and medium - cap stocks to release elasticity. Consider long positions mainly in CSI 1000 (IM) [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillating. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1]. - **Gold**: Oscillating. It will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Oscillating. Sino - US talks will start, and the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, but the copper price has clearly rebounded, so the price may oscillate. Focus on the positive arbitrage opportunity of Shanghai copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating. Global trade frictions are still uncertain, and with the arrival of the domestic wet season, the domestic inventory reduction speed may slow down, so the aluminum price will oscillate [1]. - **Alumina**: The supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved, and the short - term price may rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating. Under the favorable domestic policies, the market sentiment has improved, but the result of Sino - US tariff negotiations is unknown, and the risk - aversion sentiment still exists. The low inventory in the near - term supports the zinc price, but the fundamental upside pressure is large. Focus on short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Oscillating. The domestic pro - growth policies boost the market sentiment. Sino - US talks will be held, and pay attention to the progress of relevant news. Indonesia's resource tax policy has been implemented, the premium of nickel ore is high, and the nickel price will oscillate. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowinning nickel. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and operate within the range. Be vigilant about changes in domestic and foreign macro and resource - country policies [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating. The domestic pro - growth policies boost the market sentiment. Sino - US talks will be held, and pay attention to the progress of relevant news. Indonesia's resource tax policy has been implemented, the supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, the price of nickel iron has slightly corrected, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the demand expectation is weak under the background of trade frictions. In the short - term, the stainless - steel futures will oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see and operate within the range. The industrial sector should pay attention to policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Oscillating. Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered the low - valuation range, and the demand has not improved and the inventory pressure has not been relieved [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Oscillating. The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the futures are at a discount to the spot, so the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish. Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream raw - material inventory is at a high level. At the low price, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases [1]. Black Metals Sector - **Rebar**: Oscillating. Trade disputes intensify the pressure on the export chain, the short - term risk preference is slightly poor, and the opening price will dive [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillating. Trade disputes intensify the pressure on the export chain. Plates may bear the brunt, the short - term risk preference is slightly poor, and the opening price will dive [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating. Tariff policies affect the market sentiment, and iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Oscillating. The inventory is high, but the cost has support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Oscillating. The cost has loosened, but the production area has reduced production, and the social inventory is neutral [1]. - **Glass**: Oscillating. The demand is released in a pulsed manner. Pay attention to the demand performance. The near - term positions are gradually decreasing, and the long - short game is weakening [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Oscillating. Alkali plants are resuming production, and the demand has increased, but the medium - term supply is in excess, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Oscillating. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus, and they are short - allocated in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunity of positive arbitrage in the futures - cash market and selling hedging after the price rebounds to a premium [1]. - **Coke**: Oscillating. Similar to coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Oscillating. The rebound of crude oil prices may make it difficult for oils and fats to decline smoothly. The fundamentals are bearish. Wait for the opportunity to short after the price rebounds. It is recommended to do long in the YP spread [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating. There is currently a lack of weather themes for US soybeans. The large volume of soybean arrivals and the intention of Sino - US talks may be bearish risks, and the price is in a unilateral oscillation [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating. The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting period. There may be an anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed recently, which is expected to bring large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and consider doing long in the volatility [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating. If crude oil continues to search for the bottom, the cotton - spinning demand may be weak, and the substitution between chemical fiber and cotton will also put pressure on the cotton price. Recently, the prices of overseas agricultural products have fallen from high levels, the cotton - grain price ratio has repaired upwards, and the substitution effect of US cotton planting has weakened marginally, which is bearish for the long - term US cotton price [1]. - **Sugar**: Oscillating. Overseas, the production reduction in Brazil and the lower - than - expected production increase in India have raised concerns about international supply shortages, and the price of raw sugar has risen strongly recently. Domestically, the sugar - making season is approaching the end, the production has increased significantly year - on - year, and the industrial inventory has reached a historical high, which suppresses the upside space of the domestic market [1]. - **Corn**: Oscillating. In the short - term, affected by the impact of new wheat listing and the expectation of policy - based grain release, the corn futures price faces certain pressure. The expected trend is oscillating, and the bullish expectation remains unchanged under the tightening medium - term supply and demand. It is recommended to wait for the callback to do long [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Bearish. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas recently is conducive to sowing, the Brazilian discount is generally oscillating weakly, there is no obvious bullish driver in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. Wait for the further release of spot pressure [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating. The decline in the overseas offer of paper pulp weakens the cost support, and the domestic demand has entered the off - season. The inventory has slightly decreased recently. It is recommended to hold the position and wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Oscillating. The volume of log arrivals remains high, the inventory is generally at a high level, the price of terminal products has fallen, and there is no short - term bullish factor. The current valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - **Pigs**: Oscillating. With the continuous restoration of pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase, the futures price has an obvious expectation, the discount to the spot is large, and there is no bright spot in the downstream [1]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating. Affected by the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the accelerated production increase of OPEC +, and the weakening global demand [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating. Affected by the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the accelerated production increase of OPEC +, and the weakening global demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Oscillating. The cost is dragging down, the inventory is still low but continuously accumulating, the demand is slowly recovering, and the end of the 14th Five - Year Plan is worth looking forward to this year [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating. The expectation of production release is increasing, the domestic inventory is continuously accumulating, and affected by the purchase - storage policy [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Bearish. The cost is suppressing, the fundamentals are loose, the spread between high - and low - end butadiene rubber continues to widen, and it is expected to run weakly [1]. - **PTA**: The intensive maintenance of upstream PX plants has significantly repaired the internal - external spread of PX. Due to the profit repair of PTA, the procurement demand for PX has significantly strengthened, the floating price has started to strengthen, and domestic PTA and reforming plants plan to overhaul more plants in May. The high load of polyester has supported the demand for PTA [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Oscillating. Ethylene glycol plants are under maintenance, large - scale plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based plants have started to be overhauled [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Bullish. The slightly tight situation of PTA has strengthened the cost support for short - fiber, and in the case of a high basis, short - fiber has shown strong performance [1]. - **Styrene**: The weak demand for pure benzene has caused the price to continue to decline. The decline in the profit of reforming plants has clearly affected the plant load. After the sharp decline of pure benzene, the downstream demand for pure benzene has continued to weaken [1]. - **Urea**: Bullish. The market expectation is favorable, the sentiment is strong, and the urea market is likely to rise firmly in the short - term [1]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating. The basis is high, and the replenishment is active. In the short - term, the methanol price will oscillate within the range. In the long - term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weakly oscillating [1]. - **PE**: Oscillating. The macro - risk is large, crude oil is oscillating weakly, the orders are insufficient, the market sentiment is weak, and PE will oscillate weakly [1]. - **PP**: Oscillating. Some previously overhauled plants have resumed operation, the demand is stable, the trade war has intensified, the market sentiment is weak, and PP will oscillate [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillating. The fundamentals are weak, the macro - risk has intensified, and it is difficult to form a trend - upward movement [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating. The demand during the May Day holiday was average, the driving force for the increase in spot prices was insufficient, and the futures price oscillated weakly [1]. Other Sector - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market has strong expectations but weak reality. In the short - term, be cautious when short - selling at the price - support point due to the price reduction. As the futures price begins to show a safety margin, you can try to go long in the peak - season contracts with a light position. Continuously pay attention to the 6 - 8 reverse spread for arbitrage [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆★ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆★ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆★ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall market is under pressure due to weak terminal demand, high supply, and negative feedback concerns [2][3][4][5] - The prices of various commodities are expected to be weak and volatile, with different influencing factors for each [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Category Steel - The steel market is under pressure due to weak demand, high supply, and concerns about negative feedback [2] - Terminal demand is weak, and the recovery of the real estate and manufacturing industries is uneven [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to be weak and volatile, with concerns about negative feedback and potential decline in iron production [3] - Supply is relatively stable, but demand is uncertain due to potential production cuts and weak steel demand [3] Coke - The coke market is weak, with the second price increase rejected and high inventory [4] - Carbon supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to the development of steel exports [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile, with high inventory and weak demand [5] - Supply is stable, but demand is limited due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese market has rebounded, but prices are still under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand [6] - Manganese ore inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron market has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals are weak due to high inventory and weak demand [7] - It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]