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《能源化工》日报-20250821
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 05:15
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda futures market strengthened, but the supply is expected to increase with more devices resuming and fewer maintenance plans. The rebound height is limited, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2500 - 2700. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is under pressure due to new capacity releases, while the downstream demand shows no sign of improvement. The industry is in the off - season, and it is recommended to take a bearish view [2]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price rebounded, driven by short - term supply - demand factors such as a large drop in US EIA inventory and strong terminal demand. However, there is still short - term supply pressure due to the increase in Cushing inventory and OPEC + production. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and consider expanding the 10 - 11/12 month spread on the inter - month side [5]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has high port inventory due to large imports. The demand is differentiated, with traditional sectors weak and MTO profit improving. The 09 contract has significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal factors and Iranian gas - limit expectations [9][11][12]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term price has some support due to expected improvement in supply - demand and lower port arrivals in August, but the medium - term supply is sufficient, and the rebound drive is limited. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply is high, but the demand has improved with the increase in downstream 3S load and export expectations. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound space is limited [16]. Urea Industry - The urea price fluctuated, mainly driven by export sentiment and inventory pressure. The fundamentals have limited changes, with increased daily production and weak agricultural demand. The market is expected to be volatile [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. The short - term price has support, and it is recommended to trade it in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the medium - term is under pressure. It is recommended to trade it in the range of 4600 - 4800 and do reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [50]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand are neutral to positive in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade the EG01 contract in the range of 4350 - 4550 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: The price has some support due to the approaching peak season, but the rebound drive is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure above 6500 for the PF10 contract [50]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing fee has support, and the absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at low levels [50]. Polyolefin Industry - The PP/PE market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory depletion. The supply pressure is easing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold the LP 01 contract as the market fluctuates in the short - term [54]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chlor - alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends. The export profit of caustic soda decreased, while the PVC export profit increased [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, while the PVC total operating rate increased [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed some improvement [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends, with an increase in some and a decrease in others [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US EIA inventory decreased significantly, but Cushing inventory increased, and OPEC + production increased [5]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: The methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic operating rate decreased slightly, while the overseas operating rate increased slightly. The downstream MTO operating rate increased [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their raw materials changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while the styrene inventory increased [16]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products showed different trends [16]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The urea futures and spot prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [19]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily production decreased slightly, and the inventory in some areas changed [19]. - **Position and Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, and the trading volume increased significantly [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [50]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and downstream polyester products showed different trends [50]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased, and the PTA inventory situation was also mentioned [50]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot changed, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [54]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries showed different trends [54]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories showed different trends [54].
工业硅:情绪提振,多晶硅:报价抬升,情绪继续提振
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 02:03
Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, with the sentiment of industrial silicon being boosted and polysilicon's quotation rising and sentiment continuing to be boosted [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both rated as having a trend strength of 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook [4] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2511 closing price is 8,390 yuan/ton, with a change of -235 yuan from T - 1, -210 yuan from T - 5, and -870 yuan from T - 22; its trading volume is 561,795 lots, and open interest is 279,868 lots [2] - PS2511 closing price is 51,875 yuan/ton, with a change of -385 yuan from T - 1 and 585 yuan from T - 5; its trading volume is 704,931 lots, and open interest is 150,086 lots [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium/discount shows different values when对标ing different grades, such as +900 yuan/ton when对标ing East China Si5530, +450 yuan/ton when对标ing East China Si4210, etc [2] Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8450 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from T - 1; Yunnan Si4210 is 9850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1; polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock is 47000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [2] Profit - Silicon factory profit for Xinjiang new standard 553 is - 2676 yuan/ton, and for Yunnan new standard 553 is - 3355 yuan/ton; polysilicon enterprise profit is - 16.9 yuan/kg [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.5 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.1 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.6 million tons; polysilicon factory inventory is 24.2 million tons [2] Raw Material Cost - The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., show different changes in different regions [2] Other Products in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Chain - The prices and profit situations of products like silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are also presented, with some showing little change and others having slight price adjustments [2] Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - The price of DMC is 11000 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is - 1032 yuan/ton; the price of ADC12 is 20350 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is - 240 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - In July 2025, China's industrial silicon was exported to 50 countries/regions, with a total export volume of 74006.174 tons and an average price of 9219.38 yuan/ton, with the unit price decreasing by 75.74 yuan month - on - month. The top ten countries/regions in terms of export volume accounted for 80.51% of the total export volume [2]
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250821
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:56
Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: Port inventories are accumulating significantly due to high imports and current inventories. The domestic supply is expected to return, and traditional demand will enter the peak season. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can support after the domestic supply returns. If the inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol is likely to experience a valuation decline [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. In August, the number of maintenance activities decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [7]. - **Polypropylene**: The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, and the middle - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been performing well this year. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and the downstream orders are average currently. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance activities, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 450. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory reduction of the middle and upstream has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20, the daily changes in动力煤期货price were 0,江苏现货price increased by 25,华南现货price increased by 10,鲁南折盘面price decreased by 5,西南折盘面price remained unchanged,河北折盘面price decreased by 60,西北折盘面price remained unchanged, CFR中国and CFR东南亚prices remained unchanged,进口利润remained unchanged,主力基差decreased by 5, and盘面MTO利润remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Situation**: Port inventories are high, and the domestic supply is expected to return. Traditional demand will enter the peak season later. It is necessary to focus on the demand - supply balance after the domestic supply returns [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20,东北亚乙烯price remained unchanged,华北LLprice increased by 20,华东LLprice remained unchanged,华东LDprice decreased by 25,华东HDprice decreased by 30, LL美金and LL美湾prices remained unchanged,进口利润remained unchanged,主力期货price increased by 40,基差increased by 10,两油库存remained unchanged, and仓decreased by 40 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is different in different regions. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 100. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. The number of maintenance activities in August decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20,山东丙烯price decreased by 20,东北亚丙烯price remained unchanged,华东PPprice decreased by 40,华北PPprice decreased by 15,山东粉料price decreased by 10,华东共聚price decreased by 28, PP美金and PP美湾prices remained unchanged,出口利润remained unchanged,主力期货price increased by 40,基差remained unchanged,两油库存remained unchanged, and仓单decreased by 100 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, and the middle - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and the downstream orders are average [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20,西北电石price remained unchanged,山东烧碱price remained unchanged,电石法 - 华东price decreased by 20,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南, and电石法 - 西北prices remained unchanged,进口美金价(CFR中国)remained unchanged,出口利润remained unchanged,西北综合利润remained unchanged,华北综合利润remained unchanged, and基差(高端交割品) remained unchanged [7]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the inventory reduction of the middle and upstream has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August [7].
芳烃橡胶早报-20250821
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - For PTA, with low processing fees leading to more additional maintenance, and polyester demand expected to stabilize and have upward flexibility, there is a chance to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [3]. - For MEG, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the port inventory is expected to remain low. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [15]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the downstream inventory is continuously reduced, the downstream start - up may continue to rise. Considering the low processing fees, there is an opportunity to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [15]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable with no seasonal decline, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 14 to August 20, crude oil increased by 1, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 3, PTA inner - market spot remained unchanged, and POY 150D/48F increased by 55. The TA basis decreased by 13, and the production - sales ratio increased by 0.20 [3]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton plant was under maintenance [3]. - **Weekly Outlook**: The short - term TA start - up rate increased, polyester load rose slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate. PX's domestic start - up rate increased slightly, and overseas start - up rate decreased slightly. In the future, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees [3]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From August 14 to August 20, the price of styrene (CFR China) increased by 5, while the prices of other related products such as ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The domestic profits of EPS, PS decreased by 40 [9]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 14 to August 20, the MEG outer - market price increased by 3, the inner - market price increased by 49, and the coal - based profit increased by 49. The total load and other loads remained unchanged [15]. - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton plant restarted [15]. - **Weekly Outlook**: The domestic start - up rate remained stable, and overseas there were some unexpected maintenance. The port inventory is expected to accumulate in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely [15]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Operation Changes**: From August 14 to August 20, the price of some products such as 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber remained stable, and the start - up rate increased slightly to 91.1%. The inventory remained stable, and the downstream start - up rate increased, and the raw material inventory increased while the finished - product inventory decreased [15]. - **Weekly Outlook**: The downstream start - up may continue to rise, and there is an opportunity to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [15]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From August 14 to August 20, the prices of some products such as US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber increased, and the RU main contract and NR main contract prices changed. The weekly changes of some price differences and indicators were also significant [15]. - **Daily View**: The main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory remains stable without seasonal decline, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [15].
瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 09:11
Group 1: Report Summary - The short - term supply of pure benzene in China is expected to exceed demand, putting pressure on prices; in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction may improve as new downstream capacity in August is higher than that of pure benzene [2] - The supply of crude oil exceeds demand, and international oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks [2] - Technically, for BZ2603, attention should be paid to the support around 6100 and the pressure around 6300 [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract is 6205 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the settlement price is 6177 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2] - The trading volume of the main pure benzene contract is 11282 lots, up 7924 lots; the open interest is 13106 lots, down 877 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market is 6250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it is 6095 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea is 732 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China is 746.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 67.6 US dollars/barrel, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 574.5 US dollars/ton, up 3.75 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 44.52 tons, down 0.08 tons [2] - The port inventory of pure benzene is 14.6 tons, down 1.7 tons; the production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan [2] - The production profit of pure benzene is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.18%, up 0.45%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2% [2] Group 3: Industry News - China will comprehensively rectify the petrochemical and refining industries, phasing out small facilities and upgrading backward capacity while directing investment towards advanced materials [2] - From August 8 - 14, the profit of petroleum benzene in China was 689 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan/ton; the BZ2603 fluctuated widely and closed at 6205 yuan/ton [2] - As of August 18, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 14.4 tons, down 1.37% [2]
广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250820
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:41
Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Urea**: The current core driver of the futures market is the strong expectation of the substantial relaxation of export policies, which has been realized. China may resume urea exports to India, opening up an incremental market window. The policy window requires concentrated exports by the end of September, which coincides with the domestic autumn storage period, creating a demand resonance. The overall market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, domestic supply is expected to increase as some maintenance devices gradually restart, and the absolute price rebound space is limited. PTA's short - term basis is supported, but the upward space is limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply and demand are expected to be balanced with minor fluctuations in August. Short - fiber supply and demand both increase slightly, and prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range. Bottle - chip prices follow the cost end, and the processing fee space depends on demand [4]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is at a relatively high level year - on - year due to high imports in August. The demand is differentiated, with the traditional sector remaining weak and MTO profits recovering. The 09 contract is facing significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal peak season and gas - limit expectations [11]. - **Chlor - alkali Industry**: For caustic soda, the market sentiment is weakening, and the supply is expected to increase. For PVC, the supply - demand pressure remains high due to new capacity release and weak demand [20]. - **Polyolefin**: In the static view, the supply and demand of PP/PE both increase, inventory is being destocked, and the basis is weak. Strategically, the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: For pure benzene, the supply is expected to improve in the third quarter, and short - term prices are supported, but it is under pressure in the medium - term. For styrene, the supply is high, but there are maintenance expectations as profits are compressed, and the downstream load is rising [32]. - **Crude Oil**: Overnight oil prices were weak, mainly driven by geopolitical expectations. In the short term, oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to expand the spread between October - November/December contracts [35]. Summaries by Catalog Urea - **Futures Prices**: On August 19, the 01 contract closed at 1817 yuan/ton, up 3.59% from the previous day; the 05 contract closed at 1839 yuan/ton; the 09 contract closed at 1783 yuan/ton. The main methanol contract closed at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [1]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 36 yuan/ton, up 38.89%; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 56 yuan/ton, down 5.08% [1]. - **Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 increased by 12.03%, and the short positions of the top 20 increased by 16.18% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of anthracite small pieces and动力煤坑口 remained unchanged, while the price of动力煤港口 decreased by 0.47% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 0.60%, while the prices of compound fertilizers remained stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily domestic urea production was 19.12 million tons, down 0.78%; the weekly production was 132.85 million tons, up 1.51% [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; WTI crude oil (September) was at $62.35/barrel, down 1.7% [4]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX was at $835/ton, up 0.2%. The PX basis (11) decreased by 44.1% [4]. - **PTA - Related**: The PTA East China spot price was 4690 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The PTA basis (01) increased by 42.1% [4]. - **MEG - Related**: The MEG East China spot price was 4458 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The MEG basis (09) decreased by 30.6% [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products showed different changes, and the cash - flows and processing fees also varied [4]. - **Inventory and开工率**: MEG port inventory was 54.1 million tons, and the polyester industry chain's various开工 rates showed different trends [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 19, the MA2601 contract closed at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The太仓基差 was - 5 yuan/ton, down 171.43% [8]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573 million tons, up 0.64%; the port inventory was 102.2 million tons, up 10.41% [10]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 72.63%, down 0.74%; the downstream外采MTO装置开工率 was 76.92%, up 0.68% [11]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices**: The price of Shandong 32% caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of Shandong 50% caustic soda increased by 0.8%. The price of East China PVC decreased [14]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda industry开工率 was 87.3%, down 2.0%; the PVC总开工率 was 78.8%, up 1.4% [17]. - **Profits**: The外采电石法PVC利润 was - 562 yuan/ton, down 3.7%; the西北一体化利润 was 278.8 yuan/ton, down 5.1% [17]. - **Demand**: The开工 rates of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased slightly, while PVC's downstream product开工 rates showed different trends [18][19]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased slightly [20]. Polyolefin - **Prices**: The L2601 contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the PP2601 contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton, down 0.45% [23]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory was 44.5 million tons, down 13.76%; PP贸易商库存 was 18.0 million tons, down 4.06% [23]. - **开工率**: The PE装置开工率 was 77.8%, down 2.10%; the PP装置开工率 was 76.6%, down 1.1% [23]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; CFR China pure benzene was at $747/ton, unchanged [29]. - **Benzene - Styrene Prices**: The East China spot price of styrene was 7280 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [29]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.40 million tons, down 1.4%; the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 16.15 million tons, up 8.5% [31]. - **开工率**: The Asian pure benzene开工率 was 75.7%, down 0.4%; the styrene开工率 was 78.2%, up 0.6% [32]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent crude oil was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; WTI crude oil was at $62.60/barrel, up 0.4% [35]. - **Spreads**: Brent M1 - M3 was at $0.88, down 14%; WTI M1 - M3 was at $0.92, up 4.5% [35]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil showed different changes, and the cracking spreads also varied [35].
纯苯苯乙烯日报:EB港口基差持稳-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Pure benzene port inventory continues to decline slightly, and its basis has stabilized and strengthened recently. From August to September, there are maintenance plans for aromatics in South Korea, and the import pressure has not increased further. The overall downstream operating rate remains high, and the demand is at a seasonal high, which drives the de - stocking of pure benzene, but the de - stocking range is expected to be limited. - For styrene, the port inventory did not continue to decline at the beginning of the week, and the port pickup volume did not continue to increase. Among the downstream products, the operating rates of EPS and PS have rebounded, and their inventory pressures have been relieved, while ABS still maintains a state of high inventory and low operating rate [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - Pure benzene's main basis is - 87 yuan/ton (+4), and the spot - M2 spread is 5 yuan/ton (+0). Styrene's main basis is 54 yuan/ton (+14) [1]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 176 dollars/ton (+0), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 161 dollars/ton (+0). The profit of styrene's non - integrated production is - 327 yuan/ton (+10), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 14.40 tons (- 0.20), and styrene's East China port inventory is 161,500 tons (+12,700), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The operating rate of pure benzene downstream such as caprolactam is 93.72% (+5.31), and styrene's operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5) [1]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - Among styrene's downstream products, EPS production profit is 93 yuan/ton (- 160), PS production profit is - 107 yuan/ton (- 60), and ABS production profit is - 66 yuan/ton (+2). EPS operating rate is 58.08% (+14.41), PS operating rate is 56.70% (+1.70), and ABS operating rate is 71.10% (+0) [2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - For pure benzene's downstream products, caprolactam production profit is - 1795 yuan/ton (+0), phenol - acetone production profit is - 751 yuan/ton (- 62), aniline production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (- 262), and adipic acid production profit is - 1386 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 4. Strategy - **Single - side**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene and styrene. - **Basis and Inter - period**: Carry out positive arbitrage, buy near - month BZ paper goods and sell BZ2603 futures. - **Cross - variety**: Expand the BZN processing fee when it is low in the peak season. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the EB - BZ spread [4].
《能源化工》日报-20250820
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:41
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Urea - The current core driver of the futures market is the strong expectation of the substantial relaxation of export policies. China may resume urea exports to India, opening an incremental market window. The policy requires concentrated exports by the end of September, overlapping with the domestic autumn storage period and creating demand resonance. The short - term market is likely to fluctuate strongly, and future attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance on daily production, changes in rigid and reserve demand, and export port collection [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Domestic PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand situation in August is expected to weaken marginally. However, due to the traditional peak demand season and new PTA device commissioning expectations, the medium - term supply - demand pressure is not significant. It is expected that PX prices will be supported at low levels, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to treat PX11 as a short - term range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [4]. - **PTA**: In August, due to low processing margins, PTA device maintenance plans increased, and short - term basis was supported. However, with the commissioning of new devices, the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the upward space for the basis is limited. In the short term, there is still some support, and it is recommended to treat TA as a short - term range of 4600 - 4800 and conduct reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 at high levels [4]. - **MEG**: Domestic coal - based MEG supply has increased, and overseas supply is expected to change. In August, the supply - demand is near balance, and it is expected to fluctuate with commodities. It is recommended that EG01 fluctuate in the range of 4300 - 4500 in the short term [4]. - **Short - fiber**: Both supply and demand have increased slightly. With the approaching of the peak demand season, there is some support for prices, but the cost - side drive is limited. It is recommended that PF10 fluctuate in the range of 6300 - 6500 in the short term, and the processing margin on the futures market fluctuate in the range of 800 - 1100 [4]. - **Bottle - chip**: During the peak consumption season in August, with device production cuts, the processing margin has support at the bottom. The absolute price still follows the cost - side. It is recommended that PR is similar to PTA in terms of unilateral trading, and the main - contract processing margin on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton, and go long on the processing margin at low levels in the short term [4]. Methanol - The current methanol market has a relatively high port inventory year - on - year, mainly due to a large amount of imports in August, and imports in September are still expected to exceed 1.4 million tons. The demand side is differentiated, with the traditional sector remaining weak, while MTO profits have improved. Attention should be paid to the start - up progress of a port MTO device at the end of August to early September. The 09 contract has accumulated a large amount of inventory, while the 01 contract is supported by the seasonal peak season and Iranian gas - restriction expectations [7][8]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The overall sentiment in the industrial product futures market has weakened. The caustic soda market rebounded previously and then fell back. The spot market trading is okay, and the spot price is generally stable. The demand has been good recently, but there is an expectation of increased supply in the future, and the increase in the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas also has a negative impact. It is recommended to try short - selling [14]. - **PVC**: The supply side has new production capacity being put into operation, the domestic trade is weak, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The demand is difficult to improve, and the downstream industry is still in the off - season. It is recommended to be bearish [14]. Polyolefin - Static analysis shows that the supply and demand of PP/PE both increase, inventory is being depleted, and the basis is weak, with high warehouse receipts suppressing the market. Dynamically, PP has more unplanned maintenance and new device delays, and PE has increased maintenance from mid - August to early September, with supply decreasing and demand recovering. In terms of valuation, oil - end profits are good, MTO profits are restored, and PDH profits decline slightly. It is recommended that the unilateral market fluctuate in the short term and continue to hold the LP01 contract [19]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: In the third quarter, the supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve, and port inventory is expected to decline in August, providing some support for prices. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and its own driving force is limited. It is expected to be relatively strongly supported in the short term but will be under pressure in the medium term. BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [21][22]. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply of styrene remains high, but with profit compression, some devices may be shut down for maintenance. Downstream 3S loads have increased, and export expectations have increased due to overseas device maintenance. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and port inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is expected that styrene prices will be supported at low levels, but the rebound is limited. It is recommended that EB09 fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 in the short term and be treated as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [22]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices were weak, mainly due to the expected increase in Russian supply from the proposed Russia - Ukraine summit by Trump and market concerns about oversupply. However, the gasoline crack spread has rebounded, and refinery processing volume is at a seasonal high, providing some support for oil prices. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to be bearish, expand the spread between October - November/December contracts at low levels, and wait for opportunities to expand the spread in the options market after volatility increases [24][26]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On August 19, compared with August 18, the prices of most urea futures contracts increased, with the increase ranging from 2.74% to 3.59%. The price of the methanol main contract decreased by 0.21% [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spreads of some urea futures contracts changed, such as the 01 - 05 contract spread increasing by 38.89% [1]. - **Main Positions**: The long - position of the top 20 increased by 12.03%, and the short - position of the top 20 increased by 16.18% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with only a slight increase in the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong [1]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot prices of urea in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Regional Spreads**: The regional spreads of urea remained stable [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of urea in various regions changed, with some showing a significant decline [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of most downstream products remained stable, with only a 0.60% increase in the price of melamine in Shandong [1]. - **Fertilizer Market**: The prices of most fertilizers remained stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea changed, with a slight decrease in daily production and an increase in weekly production. The inventory in factories and ports also changed, with an increase in factory inventory and a decrease in port inventory [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of most downstream polyester products decreased slightly, and the cash flows of some products changed [4]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of CFR China PX increased by 0.2%, and some spreads also changed [4]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of PTA East China spot increased by 0.4%, and the basis and processing margins changed [4]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of MEG East China spot decreased by 0.4%, and the basis and profits also changed [4]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis and regional spreads changed [7]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The inventory of methanol enterprises, ports, and the social inventory all increased [7]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream domestic and overseas enterprises and downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda spot and futures changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of caustic soda remained stable, and the export profit decreased [14]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of PVC remained stable, and the export profit increased [14]. - **Supply: Chlor - alkali Operating Rates & Industry Profits**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and industry profits changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of caustic soda downstream industries increased [14]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PVC downstream products industries changed slightly [14]. - **Chlor - alkali Inventory: Social & Factory Inventories**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC increased [14]. Polyolefin - **Polyolefin Prices and Spreads**: The prices of polyolefin futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads changed [19]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The inventory of PE and PP enterprises and traders changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP upstream and downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha changed, and the spreads also changed [21]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of styrene East China spot decreased by 0.1%, and the basis and cash flows changed [21]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam changed [21]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports changed, with pure benzene inventory decreasing and styrene inventory increasing [21]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various segments in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [22]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil decreased, and the spreads also changed [24]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD increased slightly, and the spreads changed [24]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed [24].
芳烃橡胶早报-20250820
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:25
Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report [1] - Report date: August 20, 2025 [1] - Report team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [1] Group 2: Styrene Price and Profit Data - On August 19, 2025, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was at 825, pure benzene (CFR China) at 747, and styrene (CFR China) at 890. Styrene in Jiangsu was 7280, in South China 7440, and EPS (East China common material) was 8100. PS (East China transparent benzene) was 7700, and ABS (0215A) was 9600 [4]. - Day - on - day changes on August 19: ethylene and pure benzene (CFR) unchanged, styrene (CFR) unchanged, styrene in Jiangsu +10, in South China +10, EPS - 150, PS - 50, ABS unchanged [4]. - Asian spread of pure benzene - naphtha was 161, styrene domestic profit - 292, EPS domestic profit 115, PS domestic profit - 162, ABS domestic profit - 926, all with no day - on - day change except EPS profit - 150 and PS profit - 50 [4]. Group 3: PTA Price and Data - On August 19, 2025, crude oil was 65.8, naphtha 575, PX CFR Taiwan 835, PTA domestic spot 4690, POY 150D/4 6750. Naphtha cracking spread was 92.26, PX processing margin 260.0, PTA processing margin 128, polyester gross profit 97 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: crude oil - 0.8, naphtha +4, PX +2, PTA +20, POY - 20, naphtha cracking spread +9.69, PX processing margin - 2.0, PTA processing margin +11, polyester gross profit - 42 [12]. - PTA spot transaction: average daily transaction basis was 2509(-9). Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton plant was under maintenance [12]. Outlook - Near - term TA start - up increased, polyester load rose slightly, inventory continued to accumulate, basis was weak, and spot processing fee was still low. PX domestic start - up rose slightly, overseas had both maintenance and restart, start - up declined slightly, PXN strengthened, disproportionation and isomerization benefits remained stable, and the US - Asia aromatics spread rebounded slightly. In the future, additional maintenance of TA increased due to low processing fees. Filament sales were weak but there was no further reduction in production in the short term. Bottle - grade PTA inventory decreased continuously at low start - up. Overall, polyester start - up was expected to stabilize and have upward flexibility, supply - demand was expected to improve, and opportunities to widen processing fees on dips could be considered [12]. Group 4: MEG Price and Data - On August 19, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene was 825, MEG outer - market price 523, MEG inner - market price 4458, MEG in East China 4498, MEG far - month price 4455, MEG coal - based profit 372, MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) - 622, MEG total load 67.0, coal - based MEG load 80.5, MEG port inventory 54.7, non - coal - based load 60 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: Northeast Asia ethylene unchanged, MEG outer - market price +2, MEG inner - market price +17, MEG in East China +20, MEG far - month price +16, MEG coal - based profit +17, MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) unchanged, other loads and inventory unchanged [12]. - MEG spot transaction: basis was around 09(+87). Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton plant restarted [12]. Outlook - Near - term domestic plant restarts were postponed, start - up was stable, there was some unexpected overseas maintenance. Port inventory was expected to accumulate as arrivals increased and shipments were stable. Downstream inventory levels increased, basis was stable, and oil - based benefits improved. In the future, EG supply had postponed restarts and overseas unexpected maintenance, port inventory was expected to remain low with little short - term accumulation pressure. The situation was good and benefits were not low. In the far - month, inventory accumulation was expected due to the return of maintenance and new plant commissioning, but valuation was greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it was expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [12]. Group 5: Polyester Staple Fiber Price and Data - On August 19, 2025, 1.4D cotton - type was 6555, low - melting point staple fiber 7330, virgin hollow 7060, imitation large - denier fiber 5700, pure polyester yarn 12100, polyester - cotton yarn 16300, virgin staple fiber load 91, recycled cotton - type load 50, polyester yarn operation 63, staple fiber profit 53, pure polyester yarn profit - 155, cotton - polyester staple difference 8520, viscose - polyester staple difference 6345 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: 1.4D cotton - type +5, other prices unchanged, loads and operation unchanged, staple fiber profit unchanged, pure polyester yarn profit - 5, cotton - polyester staple difference - 10, viscose - polyester staple difference - 5 [12]. - Spot information: spot price was around 6500, market basis was around 10 - 100 [12]. Outlook - Near - term Ningbo Dafa's technical transformation plant resumed, start - up increased slightly to 91.1%, sales were stable, and inventory remained the same. On the demand side, polyester yarn start - up increased, raw material inventory rose, finished product inventory continued to decline, and benefits were maintained. In the future, as polyester yarn finished product inventory continued to decline, downstream start - up might continue to rise. Although staple fiber supply might also increase, the overall space was limited. Considering that the futures processing fee was still in a low range, opportunities to widen processing fees on dips could be considered [12]. Group 6: Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber Price and Data - On August 19, 2025, US - dollar Thai standard spot was 1805, US - dollar Thai mixed spot 1805, RMB mixed rubber 14630, Shanghai whole milk 14680, Shanghai 3L 14850, Thai latex 54.7, Thai cup lump 49.8, Yunnan latex 14300, Hainan latex 15700, butadiene rubber 11800, RU main contract 15875, NR main contract 12690 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: US - dollar Thai standard +5, US - dollar Thai mixed +5, RMB mixed rubber +50, Shanghai whole milk +95, Shanghai 3L +70, Thai latex +1, other prices unchanged or with small changes [12]. - Mixed - RU main contract basis was - 1245, US - dollar Thai standard - NR main contract 274, RU09 - RU01 - 750, RU main contract - NR main contract 3185, latex - cup lump 4.9, whole milk - mixed 50, 3L - mixed 220, mixed - butadiene rubber 2830, Thai standard processing profit 15, mixed internal - external price difference - 140, SHFE RU warehouse receipts 179570 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: mixed - RU main contract - 5, US - dollar Thai standard - NR main contract - 9, other spreads and profits with small changes or unchanged [12]. Outlook - Main contradictions: national visible inventory was stable at a low absolute level but did not decline seasonally; Thai cup lump price rebounded due to rain affecting tapping. Strategy: wait - and - see [12]
PTA、MEG早报-20250820
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures rose and then fell yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The processing margin has remained low recently, some PTA plants are under maintenance, and the polyester load has rebounded. There is no pressure for PTA to accumulate inventory in August. However, the oil price is under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The polyester load rebounded to around 89.4% last week, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased, with gradually strengthening demand support. During the recent price correction of MEG, polyester factories actively participated in price - fixing, and the port shipments will improve in the future. The inventory at ports is not expected to increase significantly from August to September. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PTA Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, PTA futures rose and then fell, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The 8 - month cargo was negotiated at 09 - 5~10, with the price negotiation range around 4670~4705. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 - 8 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4690, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 44, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position is decreasing [5]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. 3.2 MEG Analysis - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the price center of MEG rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The night - session MEG fluctuated within a narrow range, and the negotiation was relatively limited. The domestic MEG market rose steadily, and the trading was fair. The spot was negotiated and traded at a high level of over 4480 yuan/ton, and the negotiation atmosphere became a bit stalemate in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the center of the MEG outer market fluctuated upwards. The recent shipments were negotiated and traded at around 521 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the market rose steadily, with the recent shipments negotiated at around 523 - 525 US dollars/ton. The domestic - foreign price inversion widened, and the buying was relatively weak [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4455, and the basis of the 09 contract is 71, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force has a net short position, and the short position is increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3.3 Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Some PTA plants are planned to be under maintenance in August, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market's expectation of demand start has also been slightly reflected [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [8]. - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the market rebound [8]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. 3.5 Price - Related Charts - **PET Bottle Chip**: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, etc. of PET bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [13][16][20][21]. - **PTA and MEG**: It includes the price spreads (such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1, EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1), basis, and spot price spreads between PTA and MEG from 2019 to 2025 [23][29][37]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and various types of polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025 [39][41][44]. 3.7 Operating Rate Analysis - **Polyester Upstream**: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [50]. - **Polyester Downstream**: It includes the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54]. 3.8 Profit Analysis - **PTA**: It shows the PTA processing fee from 2022 to 2025 [58]. - **MEG**: It shows the production profit of MEG produced by different methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [61]. - **Polyester Fibers**: It shows the production profit of polyester short fibers, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [64][65][67].