Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "anti-involution" policy, emphasizing that price signals are not inherently established and that the transmission of demand needs to be observed in the context of the bond market [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current commodity market trend is likened to the stock market's "924" event, where the central government's rapid policy implementation has shifted expectations and led to a quick repricing of assets under ample liquidity [1]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to "restrict supply and stabilize prices," similar to the "steady housing market" approach in the real estate sector, viewing prices as crucial for guiding demand [1][2]. Group 2: Price as a Signal - The underlying logic of the "anti-involution" policy is to use price as a "starting signal" for economic recovery, akin to the "price increase to reduce inventory" strategy seen in the 2015-2016 real estate market [2]. - The effectiveness of price as a "starting signal" depends on actual demand, as historical data shows that price increases without demand support do not lead to economic momentum improvement [3]. Group 3: Tracking Policy Transmission - To monitor the transmission of the "anti-involution" policy, a weekly frequency tracking system based on high-frequency economic indicators has been established, covering production, demand, transportation, CPI, and PPI [4]. - Current data indicates that while the PPI factor is on an upward trend, the CPI and demand factors remain stable, suggesting that the transmission from upstream "anti-involution" policies to downstream prices and demand has not yet manifested [4].

工业金属：淡季宏观引导为主，价格或得到提振。 淡季需求偏弱、铜铝等工业金属加工开工率承压，部分 品种供给端虽存在扰动，但整体来看供需仍偏平淡。宏观层面， 7 月国内重要会议、中美贸易谈判、美联 储议息会议将陆续召开，宏观因素对工业金属价格的扰动或加大。若国内稳增长、促内需、"反内卷"的政 策持续发力、中美贸易谈判进展顺利、叠加美联储会议释放未来降息信号，将共同对工业品价格形成有力 支撑。 风险提示： 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 报告来源 报告导读： 随着美联储议息会议临近，若释放 9 月降息信号，流动性预期宽松，金价或 得到支撑。同时， 7 月国内重要会议、中美贸易谈判临近，宏观方面若持续释放利好，将 共同提振工业金属价格。 周期研判： 随着美国与多国的贸易谈判逐步推进，关税风险有所减弱。同时，特朗普持续施压鲍威尔，但 后者态度强硬。美市场风险偏好提升，美股上行，美元指数有所反弹，金价承压。然随着美联储议息会议 临近，若释放 9 月降息信号，流动性预期宽松，金价或得到支撑。淡季阶段，除个别品种存供给扰动外， 工业金属整体供需表现较为平淡，宏观因素对价格的影响增大。 7 月国内 ...

那牛市什么机会的确定性最大？根据以往的经验，要么主线，要么超跌。消灭低价股是牛市的普遍现 象，价格处于低位的股票会被汹涌流入的资金拉升到合理的位置。所以表现滞后的板块在流动性的持 续注入和政策的持续支持下，可能会有相当不错的表现。 而且要追牛的话，相对来说低位主题可能更让人觉得安全。而随着重磅会议临近，"稳增长"继续发力 预期提升，超跌行业的政策空间可能不小。 今天，风云君通过ETF净值的分位计算方法来评估一下哪些板块目前处于超跌状态。 举个例子，假如某ETF区间最高价1.5元，最低价0.5元，当前是0.8元，即该ETF价格处于区间净值分 位的30%。 "反内卷"政策持续演绎扭转了一些行业的悲观预期。 所以，下图中99.9%就是这段时间的新高了，0%就是新低。 作者 | Los 编辑 | 小白 现在应该没有人怀疑现在是牛市吧？风云君这几天看到新闻说，不少做商品期货和股指期货的空头方 最近被打爆了，亏损数百万元的人比比皆是。 （来源：Choice数据，市值风云制表） 在2023年以来净值分位最低的前20名主要可分为5大类。 光伏超跌 尤为严重 新能源板块是超跌的重灾区，其中光伏ETF（515790.SH）、新能 ...

| 震荡 < G > 、西南地区零星复产。2、多晶硅有减产预期。3、市场情绪高 | 工业硅 | 1、市场有光伏供给侧改革预期。2、市场情绪高。 | 多晶硅 | 看多 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1、资源端扰动频发。2、下游短期补库量大,后续补库空间有 | 碳酸锂 | 有关 | 限。3、市场情绪高 | | | | | 螺纹钢 | 期市降温，资金行为可能会带来较大波动。 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 热卷 | 期市降温，资金行为可能会带来较大波动。 | | | 铁矿石 | 情绪降温,关注焦煤的企稳 | 震荡 | - END | 供给侧改革再启动,价格偏强为主。 | 锰硅 | 看多 | | 供给侧改革再启动,价格偏强为主。 88岁 | 任铁 | 看多 | 瑞包金属 | 看多 | 供给侧改革再启动,价格将继续偏强。 | 玻璃 | | 供给侧改革再启动,价格偏强为主。 | 年碱 | 看头 | 高层会议提及"反内卷"，市场期待15年供给侧改革牛市，虽然 | | | | | 从各方面都无法相提并论,不过鉴于交易层面短期无法证伪,盘 | 售煤 | 農汤 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is under full pressure due to policy - theme catalysts such as the "anti - involution" and Yajiang Water Conservancy Construction. The long - end performs significantly weaker than the short - end. If the relevant details of the "anti - involution" policy are further introduced, it will continue to put pressure on the bond market in the short term. Interest - rate bonds are likely to continue the pattern of weakening in shock in the short term. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and choose the opportunity to allocate after stabilization. The follow - up needs to focus on the sustainability of the strong performance of risk assets [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volume**: T主力收盘价为108.395，涨幅0.18%，成交量78985手，减少1580手；TF主力收盘价为105.720，涨幅0.13%，成交量71923手，增加2320手；TS主力收盘价为102.362，涨幅0.04%，成交量43197手，增加128手；TL主力收盘价为118.780，涨幅0.56%，成交量120609手，减少3695手 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: TL2512 - 2509价差为 - 0.29，减少0.05；T2512 - 2509价差为0.01，增加0.01；TF2512 - 2509价差为0.06，增加0.01；T09 - TL09价差为 - 10.39，减少0.62；TF09 - T09价差为 - 2.68，减少0.06；TS09 - T09价差为 - 6.03，减少0.16 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T主力持仓量187839手，增加；T前20名多头持仓201483手，增加3049手；T前20名空头持仓194743手，增加1102手；T前20名净空仓 - 6740手，减少1947手；TF主力持仓量148362手，减少10201手；TF前20名多头持仓165141手，增加4183手；TF前20名空头持仓176706手，增加1546手；TF前20名净空仓11565手，减少2637手；TS主力持仓量101434手，减少2720手；TS前20名多头持仓80831手，增加926手；TS前20名空头持仓90943手，减少2360手；TS前20名净空仓10112手，减少3286手；TL主力持仓量120283手，减少2054手；TL前20名多头持仓126655手，增加3656手；TL前20名空头持仓126589手，增加2682手；TL前20名净空仓 - 66手，增加974手 [2]. 3.2 CTD and Active Bond Data - **CTD Net Price**: 220010.IB(6y)净价为107.01，增加0.1917；250007.IB(6y)净价为99.0955，增加0.1373；240020.IB(4y)净价为100.6861，增加0.1006；240020.IB(4y)净价为100.8844，增加0.1181；250006.IB(1.7y)净价为100.2734，增加0.0268；220007.IB(2y)净价为99.939，减少1.8495；210005.IB(17y)净价为134.1967，减少0.0388；210014.IB(18y)净价为130.7414，增加0.1041 [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: 1y国债活跃券收益率为1.3775%，下降1.75bp；3y为1.4680%，下降0.20bp；5y为1.5900%，下降1.50bp；7y为1.6850%，下降0.75bp；10y为1.7325%，下降0.75bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: 银质押隔夜利率为1.4110%，下降13.90bp；Shibor隔夜利率为1.4670%，下降5.30bp；银质押7天利率为1.5441%，下降9.59bp；Shibor7天利率为1.5960%，下降2.40bp；银质押14天利率为1.6400%，下降1.00bp；Shibor14天利率为1.6350%，下降9.30bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: 1y LPR利率为3.00%，无变化；5y LPR利率为3.5%，无变化 [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - 公开市场操作发行规模4958亿、3251亿，到期规模1707亿，利率1.4%，期限7天 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - 中美商定国务院副总理何立峰7月27日至30日赴瑞士与美方举行经贸会谈，双方将按两国元首6月5日通话共识就经贸问题磋商 [2]. - 6月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降4.3%，降幅较5月收窄，1 - 6月全国规模以上工业企业利润总额34365亿元，同比下降1.8%；1 - 6月黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润同比增长13.7倍，采矿业利润同比下降30.3% [2]. - 美国与欧盟达成15%税率关税协议，特朗普称该协议将对多数输美欧洲商品征15%关税，欧盟将增加对美投资6000亿美元，购买美国军事装备和7500亿美元能源产品 [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Follow - 7月28日20:30关注美国7月达拉斯联储商业活动指数 - 7月29日22:00关注美国7月谘商会消费者信心指数 [3]

月度报告-甲醇 成本支撑叠加检修落地阶段性提振价格 [★Ta宏bl观e_情Su绪mm+成ary本] 支撑+检修提振价格 7 月以来受市场"反内卷"政策影响，市场整体情绪高涨，商品 多数呈现上涨，其中煤价大幅上涨，一定程度对甲醇成本端提供 了支撑。另外，7 月甲醇装置集中检修，对价格有所提振。 ★三季度检修预期或给予供给端强支撑 能 源 化 7-8 月为甲醇传统淡季，因此行业计划内检修较多，另外，由于上 半年煤制甲醇利润较高，部分检修计划相对推迟，因此三季度或 为甲醇集中检修季节。根据卓创数据，全国甲醇开工率从 6 月底 的 78%降至 7 月中的 71%左右。根据每周公布的检修量来看，7 月检修货影响产量 80 万吨，预估 7 月份国内甲醇产量在 770 万吨， 环比 6 月下降 10%左右。 工 ★宏观情绪走强，成本端有望得到有效提 上半年甲醇期价震荡下跌，其中市场交易核心因素之一为成本端 崩塌。而如今煤价整体修复，假设下半年煤价整体价格中枢上移 的情况下，甲醇成本端或得到较强支撑，或对甲醇估值起到一定 提升。 ★需求端健康度当下维持稳定，但需关注成本抬升后的传导 从下游来看，虽然夏季甲醇下游仍处于传统淡季 ...

证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 发布时间：2025-07-28 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 5007.18 | | 52 | 周最高 | 5128.73 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3435.69 | 行业相对指数表现 -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 25% 29% 33% 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 建筑材料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《多地水泥价格推涨，需求边际改善》 - 2023.09.26 建材行业报告 （2025.07.20-2025.07.27） "反内卷"升温，商品价格上涨显著 投资要点 本周"反内卷"情绪升温：对于水泥、玻璃、玻纤大宗商品品种 影响明显，行业在政策预期下有了产能出清的抓手，目前行业价格及 盈利均在底部，在政策催化下有望基本面迎来 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth week of July, production maintained a certain level of resilience, with good freight volume in the industrial sector and stable开工率 in coking, chemical, and automotive industries. In the construction industry, cement supply was low, demand marginally improved, and asphalt开工率 decreased. In the real estate sector, both new and second - hand housing sales recovered, but the trend needs further observation, and housing prices need to stabilize. External demand saw an increase in throughput, and freight rates showed a differentiated trend. Consumption showed a convergence in travel enthusiasm, with a differentiation between urban travel data and flights, while automobile consumption remained resilient. Prices of most commodities, such as black metals, were strong, while crude oil prices were volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Consumption - Travel: The resilience of travel enthusiasm converged, with a decline in the year - on - year growth of subway travel and congestion delay index, an increase in the total number of flights, and a flight execution rate basically the same as last year [2]. - Commodity consumption: Automobile consumption remained popular, textile consumption decreased, and express delivery collection was at a high level [2]. 3.2 Real Estate - New housing: The transaction volume of new housing increased, with third - tier cities leading [3]. - Second - hand housing: Second - hand housing transactions also increased, with the markets in Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu warming up slightly, and the market in Shenzhen cooling down. The recovery of second - and third - tier cities needs further observation. The listing price and quantity of second - hand housing decreased [3]. - Land: Last week, land transaction volume was weak, but the premium rate improved [3]. 3.3 Production - Freight volume remained high, and开工率 data showed a differentiated performance [4]. 3.4 Construction Industry - The year - on - year arrival of construction funds decreased. Cement demand was stronger than supply, black metal supply and demand were weak, and asphalt开工率 decreased [5]. - The开工率 of asphalt decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and its price also decreased. The开工率 of styrene and PVC improved [6]. 3.5 External Demand - Freight volume: Port cargo throughput and container throughput increased [7]. - Freight rates: The RJ/CRB index increased year - on - year, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose significantly, and international shipping rates showed a differentiated trend. The CCFI index decreased month - on - month, while the SCFI index increased [7]. 3.6 Prices - Agricultural products: The price index of agricultural products decreased slightly [10]. - Industrial products: The domestic Nanhua Industrial Products Index and the overseas RJ/CRB Index both increased. Crude oil prices were volatile, while the prices of black metals, glass, and most other commodities, such as manganese silicon, lithium carbonate, coking coal, and ferrosilicon, were strong [2][10].

2025 年 07 月 28 日 反内卷初见成效 宏观研究团队 ——兼评 6 月企业利润数据 hening@kysec.cn 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522110002 chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524020002 事件：2025 年 1-6 月全国规上工企利润累计同比-1.8%，前值-1.1%；营业收入累 计同比 2.5%，前值 2.7%。 6 月工企景气度低位回升，投资收益对利润贡献或将扩大 1、工业企业营收和利润增速均小幅回暖。测算 6 月营收当月同比约 1.6%、较前 值上行了 0.8 个百分点；利润当月同比则降幅收窄了 4.8 个百分点至-4.3%，均较 5 月边际改善。拆分来看（利润增速=工业增加值*PPI*利润率同比），三因子对 6 月利润增速的贡献分别为+6.4、-3.6、-6.9 个百分点。量（工业增加值）的正贡 献扩大，价（PPI）的负贡献小幅加深，利（利润率同比）的负贡献明显收窄。 2、投资收益对利润贡献或将扩大。我们对每百元营收构成进行拆解，6 月成本、 费用、投资收益+营业外收支、利润分别为 85.2、8.8、0.0、6.0 元， ...

Market Overview - The three major indices in A-shares collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.12% closing at 3,597.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.44% at 11,217.58 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.96% at 2,362.60 points [2][6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 174.23 billion, a decrease of 45 billion compared to last Friday [2] Index Performance - The indices experienced a brief drop before rebounding in the afternoon session, ultimately closing in positive territory [5][6] - The performance of individual stocks showed a mixed trend, with half of the stocks rising and half falling [7] Sector Analysis - The financial sector, particularly insurance, showed strong performance, with the insurance sector reaching a peak increase of 2.48% [8] - New China Life Insurance reached a historical high, supported by growth in premiums and revenues, alongside a mandatory 30% investment in equity markets [9] - Conversely, the commodities sector faced significant declines, with the coal industry dropping by 2.89%, steel by 2.01%, and energy metals by 1.8% [9] Economic Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding whether A-shares have entered a new economic upcycle, with management expressing a stable outlook and emphasizing three certainties: high-quality economic development, macro policy expectations, and asset valuation recovery [10] - The average P/E ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is currently at 15.56, compared to historical highs of 18.40 [12] Key Contributors - The significant rise in the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices was largely attributed to the performance of Ningde Times, which saw its H-shares increase by 6.65% [13][15] - The integrated circuit and printing sectors also contributed significantly to the performance of these indices, with Deep Rainbow Technology rising over 17% [15]