格隆汇1月29日｜据工信微报，1月28日下午，工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成主持召开光伏行业 企业家座谈会。会议强调，当前形势下，"反内卷"是光伏行业规范治理的主要矛盾，各部门要加强协 同、同向发力，综合运用产能调控、标准引领、质量监督、价格执法、防范垄断风险、知识产权保护、 促进技术进步等手段，以市场化、法治化手段共同推动光伏行业回归良性竞争、理性发展的轨道。光伏 行业协会要积极履行职能，依法依规推进行业自律，创新方式方法，坚决破除行业"内卷式"竞争。 ...

会议强调，当前形势下，"反内卷"是光伏行业规范治理的主要矛盾，各部门要加强协同、同向发力，综 合运用产能调控、标准引领、质量监督、价格执法、防范垄断风险、知识产权保护、促进技术进步等手 段，以市场化、法治化手段共同推动光伏行业回归良性竞争、理性发展的轨道。光伏行业协会要积极履 行职能，依法依规推进行业自律，创新方式方法，坚决破除行业"内卷式"竞争。 1月28日下午，工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成主持召开光伏行业企业家座谈会，深入贯彻落实 党中央、国务院决策部署，听取重点企业及光伏行业协会对"反内卷"工作的意见建议，研究部署推进光 伏行业治理工作。副部长熊继军出席会议。 工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局相关司局负责同志，光伏行业重点企业及光伏行业协 会负责人参加会议。 本文转载自"工信微报"微信公众号，智通财经编辑：陈筱亦。 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2026 年 1 月 29 日 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 4151.24 | 0.27 | | 深证成指 | 14342.89 | 0.09 | | 沪深 300 | 4717.99 | 0.26 | | 中小 100 | 8742.72 | 0.19 | | 创业板指 | 3463.33 | (0.37) | 中银晨会聚焦-20260129 ■重点关注 【策略研究】策略点评—Clawdbot 重塑个人 AI 助理新范式*王君 高天然 Clawdbot 以创新设计推动 AI 向主动执行进化，凸显 AI agent 投资潜力。 【基础化工】化工行业 2026 年度策略—行业周期拐点已近，新材料蓄势腾 飞*余嫄嫄 徐中良 范琦岩 赵泰 2025 年化工行业景气度处于低位。展望 2026 年，本轮行业扩产已近尾声，"反 内卷"等措施有望催化行业盈利底部修复，同时新材料受益于下游需求的快 速发展，有望开启新一轮高成长。当前行业估值处于低位。维持行业强于大 市评级，推荐三条投资主线。 中银国际证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of fund managers' perspectives and data from their Q4 2025 reports, highlighting different investment styles and strategies across various funds [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Styles - Fund managers are categorized into different investment styles, including deep value, growth value, and balanced styles, each with distinct characteristics and strategies [7][26]. - Deep value style focuses on low valuation metrics such as low P/E and P/B ratios, primarily investing in sectors like finance, real estate, and energy [9][10]. - Growth value style emphasizes companies with strong profitability and cash flow, often holding stocks for the long term, with notable managers like Zhang Kun representing this style [15][16]. - Balanced style, represented by Peter Lynch, seeks a combination of growth and valuation, looking for stocks that offer good value [27][28]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers provided insights on market conditions and future expectations, with some expressing optimism about the recovery of consumer demand and housing prices [19][20]. - Adjustments in fund allocations were noted, with some managers reducing exposure to underperforming sectors while increasing investments in technology and energy-related companies [20][23]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious yet optimistic outlook for 2026, with expectations of improved economic conditions and potential investment opportunities in various sectors [41][54]. Group 3: Sector Focus - Specific sectors highlighted include AI, renewable energy, and consumer goods, with managers emphasizing the importance of selecting companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential [52][59]. - The article notes a trend towards increasing allocations in sectors like chemicals and machinery, reflecting a structural adjustment in response to market conditions [21][23]. - Fund managers are also paying attention to the impact of macroeconomic factors, such as inflation and government policies, on investment strategies [41][56].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese chemical industry is expected to undergo a revaluation due to the implementation of "anti-involution" measures, leading to a potential upturn in the industry by 2026 [1] - The chemical sector is anticipated to experience a significant slowdown in global capacity expansion, which could enhance the net cash flow from operating activities and increase potential dividend yields [1] - The supply-side changes are expected to halt the decline in industry prosperity, with chemical stocks likely to exhibit both high elasticity and high dividend advantages [1] Group 2 - The chemical leading ETF (516220) has seen a rise of over 2.5% and a net inflow exceeding 200 million yuan for 10 consecutive days [1] - The ETF tracks a sub-index (000813) that includes leading listed companies in organic chemicals, inorganic chemicals, and fertilizers, reflecting the overall performance of the chemical industry [1]

各位鹏友好，基金经理陈金伟的季报观点如约而至。在三季报中，他坦言"在中游行业中，现阶段买的 最多的是化工"，同时仍看好内需属性的医药和消费的一部分细分领域。 在这次的四季报中，陈金伟依然看好中游周期以及内需属性的消费医药，并分别从预期差角度进行了专 业深度的解读。站在当下时点，他此前对于化工的判断已然得到市场验证，但对于尚处在市场左侧的内 需板块(消费和医药)，他认为内需的复苏路径已经比较清晰，内需属性的消费和医药可能是未来五年空 间最大、预期差最大的板块，而且拐点就在眼前。他是如何得出这一结论的？不妨一起来看看基金经理 陈金伟的四季报投资观点。 中游可以随便扩产可能是我们身处中国而产生的错觉，如果把过去五年全球化工行业资本开支拆分来 看，中国以外几乎没有多少新增资本开支。如果中国通过反内卷能够有效控制增量产能，那么化工就具 备了"类资源品"的属性。 在其他国家，建一座化工厂难度非常大。除了基础设施、优质劳动力、高效政府等中国制造业的共性优 势外，我们还想强调化工独有的"网络效应"。我们经常提及"制造业出海"，但化工领域，中资企业出海 或发展中国家自己建厂其实并不多，且较多集中于轮胎、尿素、改性塑料等领域，这 ...

Group 1 - The A-share profit cycle may have reached a turning point, with a significant probability of profit indicators rebounding, indicating a gradual stabilization at the bottom of A-share profits [1] - Key profit indicators across the A-share market are showing signs of recovery, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in EPS and clear signs of ROE stabilization and rebound [1] - The main sectors with net inflows include non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, and automotive chips, indicating strong investor interest in these areas [1] Group 2 - The announcement to adjust export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic products will lower the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and eliminate it entirely from January 1, 2027, which may lead to a short-term surge in exports [3] - The aluminum market is expected to see a decline in demand for photovoltaic aluminum, while demand for electrolytic aluminum is projected to grow, supported by high demand in the power grid and automotive sectors [3] - Citic Securities forecasts that the average aluminum price will reach 23,000 yuan/ton in 2026, indicating a bullish outlook for the aluminum sector [3] Group 3 - The Chinese technology sector is expected to experience a significant profit growth turning point in 2026, potentially surpassing the profitability of the "seven giants" in the US stock market for the first time since 2022 [5] - The coal industry is anticipated to maintain a weak supply-demand balance in 2026, but with supportive policies, coal prices may perform better than in 2025, improving profit and dividend expectations for listed companies [5] - The TMT and consumer sectors are expected to show resilience in growth rates, while public utilities and transportation may face greater earnings pressure [11]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week, with trading volume remaining high [1] Macroeconomic Data Analysis - In Q4 2025, actual GDP growth rate declined by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%, with an annual growth rate of 5%, aligning with market expectations [3][18] - Net exports contributed positively to economic growth, increasing from 1.4% to 1.2%, while investment and consumption contributions decreased [18] - December retail sales growth fell for the seventh consecutive month, dropping from 1.3% in November to 0.9% in December, below the market expectation of 1.0% [18] - Fixed asset investment growth continued to decline in December, reaching -3.8%, also below market expectations [4][19] - Real estate development investment saw a significant drop, with cumulative year-on-year growth at -17.2% and monthly growth at -35% [19] Investment Outlook - The market is experiencing a divergence, with high trading volume and a slight decrease in financing levels [8][21] - Short-term views indicate a favorable liquidity environment, supported by a weak dollar cycle and gradual appreciation of the RMB, alongside active institutional funds [9][22] - Concerns about the end of the spring market rally are growing, but no significant policy tightening or fundamental deterioration has been observed [22] - Mid-term perspectives favor technology growth as a key direction, with expectations of gradual improvement in the economic fundamentals [10][23] - Long-term views highlight the ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition, with potential support for China's equity market from foreign capital inflows [11][25] Industry Insights - Defensive dividend sectors are entering an observation phase, while aggressive sectors may face pressure [12][26] - Continued focus on technology, particularly in AI and related fields, is expected to drive performance [12][26] - The market is likely to see opportunities in sectors benefiting from domestic demand and high economic activity, such as chemicals and construction materials [12][26]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising over 2.48% and reaching a peak increase of over 3% during trading [1][7] - Key stocks in the sector include Hebang Biotechnology and Zhejiang Longsheng, both hitting the daily limit, while Satellite Chemical surged over 9% [1][7] - The overall market sentiment indicates that the current chemical sector boom may have more sustainability compared to previous cycles, with expectations for a prolonged upward trend [8][10] Group 2 - Guojin Securities suggests that the chemical sector may undergo a revaluation driven by supply-side policies and the current mismatch between China's chemical industry status and operational conditions, indicating a high probability of recovery [9] - The market may be underestimating the impact of liquidity on the sector, which is characterized by being at the bottom of the cycle, with an upward trend in fundamentals and attractive valuations [9] - Guohai Securities highlights that leading companies in the global chemical sector have established solid cost and efficiency advantages, entering a long-term upward performance phase [10] Group 3 - There are four key opportunities in the chemical sector: low-cost expansion, improving market conditions, new materials, and high dividends [10] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry index, covering popular themes such as AI computing power, anti-involution, robotics, and new energy [10] - Investors can also consider the chemical ETF linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) for more efficient exposure to the chemical sector [10]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's industrial profits showed a positive growth of 0.6%, reversing a three-year decline, with significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries, indicating an improvement in the industrial economic structure and quality [3][5][10]. Industrial Profit Improvement - The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 73,982 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 0.6% increase year-on-year, with a notable recovery in December where profits grew by 5.3% compared to November's decline of 13.1% [3][5]. - The profit growth trend was characterized by a "low first, high later" pattern, with significant policy effects from growth stabilization measures and "anti-involution" policies contributing to improved inventory and capacity utilization [5][10]. Cost and Expense Analysis - In 2025, the cost per 100 yuan of revenue for industrial enterprises was 85.31 yuan, an increase of 0.16 yuan year-on-year, while expenses decreased to 8.62 yuan, down 0.02 yuan [6]. - The average accounts receivable collection period decreased to 67.9 days by the end of December 2025, reflecting improved cash flow due to government actions to clear debts [6][10]. Profit Structure Improvement - In 2025, profits from small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as foreign-invested enterprises, turned positive, growing by 1.4% and 4.2% respectively, while state-owned and joint-stock enterprises also saw significant profit improvements [8]. - The manufacturing sector's profits increased by 5.0%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing being the main drivers, contributing 2.8 percentage points to overall profit growth [8][9]. High-Tech Manufacturing Growth - High-tech manufacturing profits rose by 13.3%, significantly outpacing the overall industrial profit growth, with smart electronic products and semiconductor-related industries showing remarkable profit increases [9]. - Specific sectors such as smart unmanned aerial vehicles and semiconductor manufacturing saw profits grow by 102.0% and 172.6% respectively, highlighting the rapid development in these areas [9]. Outlook for 2026 - Industrial profits are expected to continue their recovery in 2026, supported by stable domestic consumption, gradual investment recovery, and improved export quality [10]. - The "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to alleviate cost pressures and enhance profit margins, while ongoing industrial modernization efforts will further improve the operating environment for industrial enterprises [10][12].