Economic Resilience and Recovery - In April, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion[7] - April's consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year, reflecting weak domestic demand[8] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating continued price pressure in the industrial sector[11] Trade and Investment Trends - Exports in April grew by 8.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate declined by 4.3 percentage points from the previous month; imports fell by 0.2%[14] - The total social financing scale increased by 16.34 trillion yuan in the first four months, with RMB loans to the real economy rising by 9.78 trillion yuan[19] - Fixed asset investment from January to April was 147,024 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.0%[30] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate development investment in the first four months was 27,730 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing[27] - New housing sales area decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, but the sales volume is showing signs of stabilization[29] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing slightly decreased, indicating potential for recovery in the real estate market[34] Overall Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment shows resilience but lacks strong upward momentum, necessitating increased policy support to boost market confidence[3] - Despite challenges, the overall trend for 2025 is expected to be upward, with patience required for recovery[38]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 21 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | | 0531-81678626 | | | 客服电话： | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 公司网址： | | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | | | 垫丁重化指标研判 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 偏空 | 農汤 | 偏多 | | 鸡蛋 | 直海 | 护金 | | 沥青 | 沪银 | 豆粕 | | РУС | — | 菜粕 | | 锰硅 | 焦煤 | 玻璃 | | 沪锌 | 菜油 | 들 - | | 甲醇 | 沪铝 | 焦炭 | | 护铜 | 玉米 | 白糖 | | | 玉米淀粉 | | | | 橡胶 | | | | 沪锡 | | | | PTA | | | | 聚丙烯 | | | | 铁矿石 | | | | ...

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 21 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 1.1 行情回顾： 5 月 20 日，万得全 A 放量上涨，开盘后震荡走高，午盘震荡运行，收张 0.67%， 超 7 成个股飘红。指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 呈现 出相似走势，收盘分别上涨 0.54%、0.43%、0.46%、0.83%，小盘股表现较优。指 数期货方面，IF、IH、IC、IM 分别收涨 0.58%、0.39%、0.49%、0.74%（按前一交 易日收盘价为基准计算）。 分板块来看，美容护理、综合、传媒板块领涨，分别涨 2.50 ...

2025年05月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡调整 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：内外库存下降，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：关注矿端影响 | 7 | | 锌：上方承压 | 9 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：矿价再度大幅下挫，弱势运行或延续 | 15 | | 工业硅：上游逐步复产，供需过剩 | 17 | | 多晶硅：基本面弱势，盘面存下行驱动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：原料继续下跌，偏弱震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：原料继续下跌，偏弱震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：成本或存下移，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：现货价格支撑，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：铁水下行，震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 焦煤：铁水下行，震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震 ...

2025 年 5 月 20 日 银河能化-20250520 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-05-20） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：WTI2506 合约 62.69 涨 0.20 美元/桶，环比+0.32%；Brent2507 合约 65.54 涨 0.13 美元/桶，环比+0.20%。SC 主力合约 2507 涨 0.3 至 461.4 元/桶，夜盘涨 4.0 至 465.4 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.72 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 美国总统特朗普周一表示，俄罗斯和乌克兰将立即开始停火谈判，以解决长达三年之久的 冲突，但在两小时的通话中，他似乎并未从俄罗斯总统普京那里获得重大让步。 欧盟执委会副主席东布洛夫斯基表示，欧盟将于本周向 G7 财长提议降低目前每桶 60 美元 的俄罗斯海运石油价格上限，作为对俄罗斯新制裁方案的一部分。了解讨论情况的欧盟官 员说，欧盟将提议降至每桶 50 美元。 伊朗国家媒体周一援引伊朗副外长马吉德·塔赫特-拉万奇的话说，如果美国坚持要求伊朗 停止铀浓缩活动，伊朗和美国之间的核谈判将不会取得任何进展。 截止 5 月 13 日当周，交易商在纽约商品交易所和伦敦洲际 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **China-US trade relations** and its implications on the **Chinese economy** and **capital markets**. The focus is on the ongoing trade negotiations, tariffs, and macroeconomic conditions in China. Key Points and Arguments Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - Initial results from the **China-US trade negotiations** in Geneva indicate a desire from both sides to reach an agreement to avoid shortages in the US and fluctuations in Chinese exports. Currently, China imposes a **10% tariff** on US goods, while the US imposes a **30% tariff** on Chinese goods, highlighting the existing tariff imbalance [1][2][3] - The negotiations are ongoing, with both parties aiming to address tariff inequalities and potentially lower tariffs on Chinese goods in the future [4][5] - The trade war has created economic pressures for both countries, with the US facing inflationary pressures and China experiencing supply chain challenges [6][8] Economic Conditions in China - China's macroeconomic situation remains unstable, with a declining real estate market and sluggish consumer demand. The first quarter saw a **4.6% growth** in consumption, which is below GDP growth rates, indicating weak domestic demand [9][10] - The government has implemented measures to stimulate domestic demand, such as increasing the **old-for-new** subsidy for durable goods from **1,500 yuan** to **3,000 yuan**, but the impact has been limited [14][15] - The government is focusing on infrastructure projects to boost economic growth, including major projects like the **Western Land-Sea New Corridor** and the **Tibet Railway** [16] Export Performance - China's export situation has improved recently, with companies actively shipping goods, particularly daily necessities and Christmas items, taking advantage of a **90-day grace period**. Exports in April and May exceeded expectations [11] - Despite the positive export performance, domestic demand has not shown significant recovery, and employment pressures remain high [11][12] Financial Market Stability - The Chinese government has taken proactive measures to stabilize the stock and financial markets amid the trade war, demonstrating a structured approach to policy-making [7] - The stock market has shown resilience, with a **10% increase** since early April, while the real estate market remains under pressure [20] Future Outlook - The outlook for the Chinese economy in the second half of the year is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of maintaining a **5% GDP growth target**. However, significant challenges remain, including employment and income issues that need to be addressed to stimulate domestic consumption [17][19] - The capital market is expected to experience structural investment opportunities, particularly in technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [25] Global Economic Context - The records also touch on the broader implications of the trade war on global markets, with the US economy facing potential downturns and the need for strategic adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies [26][27] Additional Important Content - The records highlight the importance of addressing income and employment issues in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where consumption patterns are influenced by financial sector employment and government policies [12][13] - The potential for future trade negotiations to include non-tariff barriers and sanctions is noted, indicating that the trade relationship remains complex and evolving [5][6] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the China-US trade relations and its impact on the Chinese economy and capital markets.

Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 6.1% year-on-year, down from 7.7% in March, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 6.4%[3] - High-tech industries maintained a strong performance with a 10% year-on-year growth in April, although slightly down from 10.7% in March[3] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4% in April, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter[3] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down from 5.9% in March, but still better than the previous year's performance[3] - Jewelry retail sales surged by 25.3% year-on-year in April, significantly higher than the previous month's 10.6% growth[3] - Home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales also showed strong growth at 38.8% year-on-year in April, up from 35.1% in March[3] Employment and External Factors - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stable employment conditions[3] - Despite external pressures, domestic demand indicators such as employment and retail sales did not show signs of a sharp decline, suggesting resilience in the economy[3] - The report highlights potential risks from export-driven growth strategies that may affect the second half of the year[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The current supply of cotton in China is tight in the short - to - medium - term, with the 09 contract showing a high probability of short - to - medium - term upward movement. However, the 01 contract may be restricted in its upward potential due to expected new cotton production increases. The cotton price is expected to rise in May and June, but caution is needed in July and August. The long - term price trend is affected by macro factors such as Sino - US negotiations and Fed policies [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - The current supply of cotton in China is tight. By the end of August, commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, lower than the same period last year and in 2023. The 09 contract is strong, with a high probability of short - to - medium - term upward movement. The 01 contract may be restricted by expected new cotton production increases in Xinjiang [3]. - The short - to - medium - term upward limit is 14,000 - 14,100. The cotton price is expected to rise in May and June due to Sino - US trade war easing and potential export rush, but caution is needed in July and August as Sino - US negotiations may be unstable [3]. - The long - term price trend is affected by macro factors. If the negotiation results are good and the Fed cuts interest rates, the cotton price may continue to rise after a decline, challenging 15,000 - 15,100. If the negotiations fail, the price may fall [3]. 2. Market Review - This week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly due to the relatively smooth Sino - US talks in Geneva and the release of a joint statement on May 12. The pure cotton yarn market is in the traditional off - season, and the industrial transmission is not obvious [5]. - The cotton main contract price was 13,390, up 1,440 or 13.3%; the cotton yarn main contract price was 19,750, up 135 or 0.2%; the US cotton main contract price was 65.43, down 1.7 or 2.6% [6]. 3. Macroeconomic Aspect - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks in Geneva from May 10 - 11 were positive, with the two sides agreeing to establish a consultation mechanism and releasing a joint statement on May 12 [10]. - The US economic activity is slowing down, with April PPI falling 0.5% month - on - month, retail sales growing only 0.1% month - on - month, and manufacturing output falling 0.4% month - on - month. The May housing builder confidence index also dropped to the lowest level since late 2023 [10]. - The US initial jobless claims remained stable at 229,000, while the continued claims increased by 9,000 to 1.881 million [10]. - The Eurozone's Q1 economic growth was revised down, but the labor market remained strong with a 0.3% employment growth [10]. 4. Industrial Chain - In April 2025, China's cotton textile industry PMI was 34.11%, down 26.10 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line. New orders, production, and operating rates all dropped, cotton inventory decreased slightly, and cotton yarn inventory increased significantly [12]. - India's clothing exports in April 2025 were 1.371 billion US dollars, a 14.43% year - on - year increase and a 10.45% month - on - month decrease. From January to April, the total clothing exports were 6.043 billion US dollars, an 8.14% year - on - year increase [12]. - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 3.905 million tons, a 5.5% year - on - year increase, due to an expected increase in planting area [12]. - India's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 5.002 million tons, a 9.5% year - on - year decrease, with consumption expected to be 5.712 million tons, a 5.2% year - on - year decrease [12]. 5. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand forecast, production is expected to decrease year - on - year but remain at the second - highest level in the past five years, consumption is expected to increase year - on - year to the highest level in the past five years, and the ending inventory will decrease slightly [13]. - In the 2024/25 forecast, global cotton production is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, consumption is expected to increase slightly, and the ending inventory will decrease slightly [13]. 6. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, total supply decreased by 500,000 tons to 14.91 million tons due to a reduction in imports. Total demand increased by 60,000 tons to 8.21 million tons, mainly due to an increase in cotton consumption for spinning [16][17]. - In the 2025/26 season, total supply decreased by 500,000 tons to 15.09 million tons, with a decrease in beginning inventory and an increase in production. Total demand increased by 60,000 tons to 8.14 million tons [16][17]. 7. US Cotton Exports - From May 2 - 8, the net signing of US 2024/25 upland cotton was 27,715 tons, an 86% increase from the previous week and a 2% increase from the four - week average. The shipment was 74,661 tons, a 17% decrease from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the four - week average [20]. - China's net signing of current - year upland cotton was 0 tons, with a significant increase in shipment. There was no signing of Pima cotton and no signing of next - year's upland cotton [20]. 8. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - By the end of April, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.1526 million tons, a 14.20% decrease from the previous month and a 4.29% decrease from the same period last year [23]. - By the end of April, the cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 954,200 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons from the end of the previous month. The disposable cotton inventory was 1.2884 million tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the end of the previous month [23]. - The total industrial and commercial inventory was 5.1068 million tons, a decrease of 135,400 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 692,100 tons month - on - month [23]. 9. Cotton Climate - In the Southwest Cotton Region, the weather is sunny, and the sowing operation is in progress. The soil moisture in the sub - surface layer is insufficient, and rainfall is needed [24]. - In the South - Central Cotton Region, the weather is warm, but there is a 40% - 50% probability of scattered thunderstorms in the future, which may delay outdoor operations [28]. 10. Xinjiang Region - On the 16th, there was light rain in parts of the southwestern mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang, and windy and high - temperature weather in parts of northern Xinjiang, eastern Xinjiang, etc. High - temperature weather is expected in parts of Junggar Basin, Tarim Basin, and eastern Xinjiang in the next three days, with a high fire risk level [32]. 11. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - As of May 16, the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,548, with an effective forecast of 365, and the total warehouse receipts were 11,913, a decrease of 222 from the previous week [35]. - As of May 6, the non - commercial net long positions in ICE cotton futures and options increased by 1,452 to - 14,546; the pure futures non - commercial net long positions increased by 1,662 to - 10,076; the commodity index fund net long positions increased by 2,692 to 60,020 [35]. 12. Basis - The current cotton basis is 1,187 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan from the previous week; the current cotton yarn basis is 900 yuan, a decrease of 180 yuan from the previous week [39]. 13. Price Differences - The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has widened, currently at 1,222 yuan, an increase of 600 yuan from the previous week; the difference between domestic and foreign cotton yarn prices has widened, currently at - 1,368 yuan, an increase of 262 yuan from the previous week [43]. 14. Industrial Chain Load - The production enthusiasm of textile enterprises is fair, and the operating rate is relatively stable [45]. 15. Industrial Chain Inventory - The inventory of textile enterprises has decreased, and the overall yarn inventory has been transferred to traders [53]. 16. Industrial Chain Profits - Due to the significant increase in cotton prices compared to cotton yarn prices, inland textile enterprises currently have a small loss in immediate cash flow [55].

宏观和大类资产配置周报 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布 我们将后续大类资产配置顺序调整为：股票>大宗>债券>货币 宏观要闻回顾 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 5 月 18 日 资产表现回顾 ◼ 本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.12%，沪深 300 股指期货上涨 1.06%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 2.21%，铁矿石主力合约本周上涨 4.67%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率下跌 2BP 至 1.24%；十年国债收益率上行 4BP 至 1.68%，活跃十年国债 期货本周下跌 0.53%。 资产配置建议 ◼ 4 月新增社融 1.16 万亿元，较去年同期多增 1.22 万亿元，较 3 月少增 4.73 万亿元，略低于万得一致预期的 1.26 万亿元。4 月社融存量同比增长 8.70%，较 3 月上升了 0.37 个百分点，略低于万得一致预期的 8.80%。4 月新增人民币贷款 884 亿元，较去年同期少增 2465 亿元，较 3 月少增 3.74 万亿元。去年同期社融基数较低。较去年同期多增的是政府债券、汇票、 企业债、股票融资和外币贷款，较去年同期少增的是人民币贷款、信托贷 款和委托贷款。我们认 ...

Supply and Demand - Construction starts show a structural positive change, with infrastructure cement usage exceeding the same period in 2024[2] - Industrial production remains at a seasonally high level, with the chemical chain operating at historical highs[2] - Demand in construction is weak, while automotive and home appliance demand is improving, with rolling sales of passenger cars showing a year-on-year increase[3] Price Trends - International commodity prices show a mixed trend, with oil and gold prices declining while base metals are rising[4] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing a slight rebound, with rebar prices recovering and some chemical and building material prices showing signs of rebound[4] - Food prices are trending downward, with agricultural product prices fluctuating downwards and pork prices remaining stable[4] Real Estate and Liquidity - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, although first-tier cities show improvement, with transaction area in major cities up 2% week-on-week[5] - Second-hand housing transactions in Beijing and Shenzhen show a marginal year-on-year decline, while Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions continue at historical highs[5] - Liquidity is tightening, with funding rates declining; as of May 16, R007 was at 1.63% and DR007 at 1.64%[5] Export Performance - High-frequency export data has not significantly rebounded, with May exports expected to be around 0% year-on-year as of May 17[6] - Port throughput data indicates a potential decline in exports, with daily export transport data showing some resilience but not a substantial recovery[6] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy strength[6]