Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 293.2 billion, 231.8 billion, and 165 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 193.1 billion, 110.2 billion, and 159 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 277.5 billion, with a net financing amount of 95.8 billion. One new convertible bond was issued, expected to raise 4.9 billion [1] Liquidity Tracking - The net absorption through OMO was 226.5 billion, with marginal tightening of funds, and both repo and certificate of deposit rates increased [2] Policy and Fundamentals - The June CPI year-on-year was 0.1%, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.6%, with CPI meeting expectations and PPI significantly below expectations [3] Overseas Market - The US announced a new round of tariff increases on the EU, Mexico, and Brazil, with rates raised to between 30% and 50%, and the deadline for reciprocal tariff negotiations extended to August 1 [4] Equity Market - Influenced by real estate policy expectations and anti-involution, the Wande All A index continued its upward trend, with real estate and building materials sectors leading the gains. The Wande All A rose by 1.71%, the ChiNext index increased by 2.36%, and the CSI 300 rose by 0.82%. The average daily trading volume in A-shares slightly increased to nearly 1.5 trillion, up by 54.748 billion from the previous week [5] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - With the upcoming tax period and MLF maturity, funding demand is expected to increase. However, the central bank has started to restore net reverse repos, which may continue to increase liquidity supply. The market is currently pricing in expectations around real estate policies and upstream commodity price increases, but the necessity for significant short-term stimulus policies is low given the strong economic performance in the first half of the year [6]

Macro Strategy - The "urban renewal" initiative is expected to achieve a total investment of at least 4.48 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, averaging nearly 900 billion yuan annually. The main sources of potential demand will come from the renovation of urban villages, old residential areas, and urban infrastructure upgrades [1][18] - The renovation of old residential areas and urban infrastructure is projected to contribute at least 2.35 trillion yuan in new investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supported by over 470 billion yuan in central budget investments and special bonds [1][18] - The urban village renovation is estimated to contribute 2.13 trillion yuan in new investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, assuming a "half-demolition, half-renovation" approach for the remaining self-built houses [1][18] Economic Data - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating a strong performance compared to the previous year. However, the nominal GDP growth rate was lower at 3.9% [2][20] - Consumer spending showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0% in the first half, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, while real estate sales showed resilience compared to the previous year [2][20] - Industrial production in June saw a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, supported by strong external demand, particularly in the equipment manufacturing sector [2][21] Company Analysis - Zhongkuang Resources (002738) has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027 due to pressure from falling lithium prices and temporary losses in copper smelting, projecting net profits of 4.0/9.6/19.3 billion yuan [10] - Li Ning (02331.HK) anticipates challenges in sales due to deepening discounts and increased expenses, with revised net profit forecasts of 23.1/26.0/29.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [10] - 361 Degrees (01361.HK) is expanding its superstore network and maintaining industry-leading growth, with net profit forecasts of 13.0/14.6/16.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [11] - Zhongrong Electric (301031) expects continued high growth in its electric vehicle-related products, projecting net profits of 3.4/4.8/6.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [12] - Huanxin Cement (600801) reported a significant increase in Q2 profits, driven by improvements in domestic cement profitability and overseas operations, with revised net profit forecasts of 28.8/32.2/35.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [15]

Market Overview - The bond market showed slight recovery on July 15, with government bond futures rising across the board, supported by stable economic data [1] - The average yield on interbank cash bonds fell by approximately 1 basis point [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan into the market, indicating a continued loose monetary environment [1][6] Bond Futures Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures were as follows: 30-year contract rose by 0.47% to 120.760, 10-year contract increased by 0.18% to 108.890, 5-year contract up by 0.13% to 106.025, and 2-year contract up by 0.04% to 102.418 [2] - Major interbank bond yields turned downward, with the 7-year bond yield decreasing by 1.5 basis points to 1.595% and the 10-year bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.657% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.40 basis points to 4.433% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly continued to rise, with the 10-year yield up by 1 basis point to 1.58% [4] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds also increased, with French bonds rising by 2 basis points to 3.430% [4] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank issued financial bonds with yields below market estimates, with 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields at 1.4996%, 1.5524%, and 1.6815% respectively [5] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, injecting 342.5 billion yuan into the market [6] - The Shibor rates for overnight and short-term products increased, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [6] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP for the first half of the year was 66.0536 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year [7] - In June, 14 out of 70 major cities saw new residential prices increase month-on-month, with notable price changes in cities like Changsha and Shanghai [8] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that export pressures may rise in the second half of the year, while Huatai Securities highlighted that the bond market remains crowded with potential short-term volatility [9] - Xingzheng Securities indicated that the bond bull market remains intact, with further room for long-term and ultra-long-term bond yields to reach new lows in Q3 [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Treasury bond futures market oscillated downward. Affected by the continuous net withdrawal by the central bank with a still loose capital - side and the economic expectation adjustment due to the easing of overseas tariffs, the yields of both short - and long - term bonds increased. Meanwhile, the strong stock market drove the risk appetite to recover, and funds flowed from the bond market to the equity market, forming an obvious "stock - bond seesaw" effect. The bond market will continue to oscillate in the short term, with the 10 - year yield expected to fluctuate between 1.64% - 1.68%. In the medium and long term, it will maintain the basis for a bull market supported by the weak economic recovery and loose policies [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's monthly PPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan (+0.95%); M2 year - on - year was 8.30%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% (+5.06%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 98.11, with a day - on - day increase of 0.24 (+0.25%); the offshore US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1702, with a day - on - day increase of 0.003 (+0.05%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.52, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.71%); DR007 was 1.54, with a day - on - day increase of 0.06 (+4.36%); R007 was 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.35%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.57, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 (+1.31%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1 - year) was 0.06, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+1.31%) [9]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of Treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the maturity yield trends of Treasury bonds of various terms, the valuation changes of Treasury bonds of various terms in the past day, the precipitation fund trends of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the position - holding ratio of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the trading - to - position ratio of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [10][12][14]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital Side - Relevant figures include the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, bond lending turnover and the total position of Treasury bond futures, Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [27][28][30]. 4. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - term spread trends of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and the spread between spot bond yield and futures price (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [37][39][40]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [42][45][52]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [51][54][52]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [59][62][64]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][70][73]. Strategies - Unilateral: With the repurchase rate rising and the Treasury bond futures price oscillating, the 2509 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Group 1 - The report highlights the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, indicating that historically, stock and bond markets tend to move in opposite directions, although this negative correlation has weakened during periods of significant liquidity changes [3][4] - Current disturbances in the bond market are attributed to economic data fluctuations, accelerated special bond issuance, and evolving real estate policy expectations, suggesting that bond market rates may face certain pressures [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic data and policy developments to identify further opportunities for bond market investments [4] Group 2 - The overseas pension asset allocation strategies are categorized into asset management and asset-liability management types, with the latter focusing on ensuring long-term fund stability by considering payment pressures [5][7] - Notable pension funds such as GPIF, GPFG, and CPP utilize different strategies for asset allocation, with GPIF adopting a passive investment approach based on indices, while GPFG adjusts standard indices for active investment [5][6] - The report discusses the dynamic liability-driven investment (LDI) approach recommended by PGIM, which emphasizes flexibility in responding to market changes and aligning with retirees' spending preferences [7][8] Group 3 - The company Feirongda is projected to achieve a revenue of 2.886 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.06%, with net profit expected to increase by 103.95% to 123.69% [9][10] - The growth is driven by strong performance in the consumer electronics, communication, and new energy vehicle sectors, with significant contributions from key clients and market recovery [10][11] - The company has established a strong position in the liquid cooling solutions market for AI servers, with its 3D VC liquid cooling module recognized by leading AI server manufacturers [12][13] Group 4 - The report notes rising prices for potassium fertilizer, glyphosate, and organic silicon, indicating potential investment opportunities due to expected mid-year performance increases [15][23] - The chemical industry is experiencing a tightening supply of phosphorus ore, with demand expected to grow due to the increasing need for phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate batteries [17][19] - The report identifies key opportunities in the chemical sector, including low-cost expansion and improving market conditions for chromium salts and phosphorus ore [19][20]

Macro Strategy - The "Great Beautiful Act" has been quickly implemented, but its distribution effects and the tightening fiscal impact from excluding extended and expanded tax cuts limit its growth stimulus for the US economy [1][24] - The act's characteristic of "increasing deficits first, reducing deficits later" implies a risk of a "fiscal cliff" around 2028 [1][24] - In the short term, concerns about the impact of US Treasury issuance on market liquidity and yield premiums are not excessive; however, the long-term path dependency of unsustainable US government debt makes it difficult for Treasury yield premiums to decrease [1][24] Fixed Income - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident as the stock market stabilizes, influencing bond yields; the 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.641% to 1.666% during the week [3][5] - The bond market's reaction to Trump's threats of additional tariffs on BRICS countries was muted, indicating a limited impact on bond yields [3][5] - The bond yield's upward trend is expected to continue, influenced by stock market performance, but the extent of the increase is likely to be limited [5] Industry Insights - Wanda Film's diversified layout in esports and concert live streaming is expected to create new growth points, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.0 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.44 billion yuan, respectively [8] - Lianlian Digital is projected to achieve a reasonable P/S valuation of 8.0x and 7.0x for 2025 and 2026, respectively, as it continues to expand its business [10] - Youyou Foods has revised its profit forecast upwards, expecting net profits of 232 million, 285 million, and 329 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a growth rate of 47.2%, 23.2%, and 15.3% [11] - Siyi Electric's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 1.293 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%, driven by strong overseas orders [14][15] - The energy sector, represented by Furan Energy, anticipates stable growth in natural gas supply and a steady increase in new energy business, with net profit forecasts of 872 million, 922 million, and 976 million yuan for 2025-2027 [12] - The lithium battery sector, represented by Weilan Lithium Core, has revised its profit expectations upwards, forecasting net profits of 750 million, 1 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting significant growth [13] - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Lianbang Pharmaceutical, is expected to see revenue growth driven by innovative drug development, with net profits projected at 3.11 billion, 3.10 billion, and 3.38 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [21]

报告导读： 股债跷跷板调节下，现券 - 资金利差或趋于走阔。 近期股债跷跷板效应显著，对债市形成较大的扰动，印证了我们此前在报告《新式股债跷跷板，债市无近 忧有"中虑"》的判断与提示，但与此同时，当前的股债跷跷板有以下三个特征需要注意： 其一、当前股 债涨跌并非完全对称， 7 月以来股市涨幅最大的 7 月 8 日（周二），债市虽然表现弱势但跌幅相对可 控，而在周四、周五股市涨势略有收缩时，债市跌幅反而进一步扩大； 其二，后半周债市在盘中的利率上 行，也是资金（存单利率）相对收紧的共同作用的结果，并非单纯的"股债跷跷板"，股债跷跷板可能需要 通过资金波动的"乘数效应"才能发挥出作用；其三，当前股债的背离的底层机制或仍然是资金在金融股与 债券之间的"高低切换"，而非估值模型分子端"现金流"效应 。 进一步分析，当前股债跷跷板实质上的作用或是"债券资产间 / 债券 - 资金间比价的调节变量"，而非直 接影响国债利率，具体体现在调节资金利率与国债利率关系、长债与权益资产关系、低利率下债市定价逻 辑变化三方面： ①调节国债利率与资金利率利差，或将走扩。即股市持续强势下股债性价比逆转，投机资 金和边际定价力量逐步流失，债 ...

Investment Insights - The bond market experienced a slight decline last week, with the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) down by 0.08% and the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) down by 0.11% [2][12] - Short-term interest rates increased significantly, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields rising by 3.42 basis points, 3.26 basis points, 3.44 basis points, and 2.09 basis points respectively [12] - Credit bond yields mostly increased, leading to an overall compression of credit spreads [12] Market Observations - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan, tightening the liquidity marginally [13] - New tariff negotiations have raised U.S. Treasury yields, with concerns about inflation impacting market sentiment [14] - The REITs secondary market saw a significant correction, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index dropping by 1.12% [15] Public Fund Market Dynamics - Penghua Fund announced the transformation of its Penghua Qianhai Vanke REIT into an open-end bond fund after its ten-year closed operation period ended [16] - This REIT was the first publicly offered REIT product in China, providing critical practical experience for the development of the C-REITS market [16][17] Fund Performance Tracking - Short-term bond fund index rose by 0.01% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.03% since inception [3][19] - Medium to long-term bond fund index fell by 0.12%, with a cumulative return of 6.56% since inception [4][19] - REITs fund index decreased by 2.28%, but has a cumulative return of 37.20% since inception [10][19]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income report released on July 14, 2025 [1] - Analysts are Liang Weichao and Li Shukai [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the second week of July, the bond market entered a consolidation phase. Credit bonds declined less than interest - rate bonds. After the adjustment, the short - term participation window for ultra - long - term bonds has likely passed, and the 3 - 5 - year weak - quality riding strategy may offer better cost - effectiveness. Also, 1 - 2 - year short - duration sinking is a good choice [3][5][30] Group 4: Market Performance Summary Overall Bond Market - In the week from July 7 to July 11, 2025, due to multiple negative factors, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect was in play, with the equity market strengthening and interest - rate bonds weakening. Credit bonds followed the trend of interest - rate bonds but declined less [3][10] Yield Changes of Major Bond Types - For Treasury bonds, the 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y maturity yields increased by 3.40BP, 4.61BP, 3.67BP, 3.58BP, and 3.63BP respectively. For AAA medium - and short - term notes, the yields changed by - 0.58BP, 1.46BP, 3.34BP, 3.59BP, and 3.87BP respectively; for AA+ medium - and short - term notes, they changed by - 1.58BP, 0.46BP, 1.34BP, 4.59BP, and 2.87BP respectively [10][12] Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds - Ultra - long - term credit bonds were also adjusted. The adjustment of urban investment ultra - long - term bonds was the highest. Only AA+ 10Y medium - term notes performed well with a continued decline in valuation yield. AAA/AA+ 10Y medium - term note yields increased by 2.62BP and decreased by 1.38BP respectively. AAA/AA+ 10Y urban investment yields increased by 3.36BP and 4.36BP respectively, while the 10Y Treasury bond yield only increased by 2.20BP [3][11] Perpetual and Secondary Bonds (Er Yong Bonds) - The market of Er Yong bonds weakened and showed the characteristic of a "volatility amplifier". The decline of those with a maturity of less than 5Y was greater than that of general credit bonds of the same maturity, and the decline of those with a maturity of 7Y and above slightly exceeded that of ultra - long - term credit bonds. The yields of 1 - 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 3.94BP, 5.14BP, 5.79BP, 5.32BP, 5.44BP, 4.35BP, and 4.78BP respectively [4][17] Group 5: Market Feature Analysis Curve Shape - The steepness of the 1 - 2Y for all ratings and 3 - 5Y for low - ratings was the highest, but it was slightly lower compared to the end of May, and the 1 - year segment remained relatively flat [13] Historical Quantiles - The ticket - coupon value of credit bonds remained low. In terms of credit spreads, there may be opportunities for participation in the 3Y - 5Y segment. The yields of 1Y - AAA, 3Y - AAA, etc. were at relatively low levels since 2024, and after a week of adjustment, the short - end 1Y still had no cost - effectiveness, while the protection of 3Y - 5Y was enhanced [15] Active Trading - The trading sentiment of Er Yong bonds was relatively weak. The proportion of low - valuation transactions from July 7 to July 11 was 100.00%, 2.44%, 46.34%, 100.00%, 80.49% respectively, and the average trading durations were 5.90 years, 0.59 years, 2.14 years, 6.25 years, 4.02 years respectively. The trading margin of Er Yong bonds below the valuation was small, generally within 3BP; the discount trading margin was also small, generally within 2BP [19][20][22] Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds - Institutions' willingness to sell ultra - long - term credit bonds increased significantly compared to the previous week. The proportion of discount transactions was 2.44%, 85.37%, 70.73%, 95.12%, 60.98% respectively, and the discount margin was mostly within 3BP. The market's willingness to buy ultra - long - term credit bonds weakened, and the trading focus returned to the 3 - 5 - year riding transactions of low - quality urban investment bonds. Although the market adjusted, institutions' willingness to buy was still strong, with about 45% of the transactions below the valuation having a margin of 4BP or more [5][25][26]

国债期货震荡偏空，关注政治局会议 摘 要： 由于 A 股强劲反弹，股债跷跷板使得债市有效跌破 60 日均线， 后续债市或进入趋势性空头行情。目前经济基本面依然具有韧性， 但是持续复苏的动力不强，市场关注 7 月政治局会议是否会有增量 政策出台，如果有增量政策出台，那么债市空头行情或进一步得到 确立，目前股债跷跷板依然是债市主要逻辑。 6 月份，我国制造业、非制造业和综合 PMI 分别为 49.7%、50.5% 和 50.7%，比上月上升 0.2、0.2 和 0.3 个百分点，三大指数均有所 回升。6 月财新中国制造业 PMI 录得 50.4，高于 5 月 2.1 个百分点， 与 4 月持平，重回临界点以上。新订单指数反弹至略高于临界点水 平。生产指数亦重回扩张区间，创近七个月来新高。但是 6 月财新 中国服务业 PMI 录得 50.6，较 5 月回落 0.5 个百分点，下行至 2024 年四季度以来最低。6 月综合 PMI 产出指数反弹 1.7 个百分点至 51.3。经济数据好坏参半，但整体表现出一定的韧性。 今年上半年，各地发行用于置换存量隐性债务的置换债近 1.8 万亿元，总体呈现早发、快发的特点。同时， ...