交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国零售销售数据强劲，金价V型反转；美国三大股指全线收涨，欧洲 三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率跌0.80个基点报 4.449%；美元指数涨0.36%报98.64，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1847；COMEX黄 金期货跌0.41%报3345.40美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布 会、日本6月CPI、日本27届选举、美国7月密歇根消费者信心指数。美国零售销售数 据强劲，但美联储主席更换预期下，降息预期高涨， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Pay attention to marginal changes in inventory [1] - Alumina: Oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Weaker than electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - Morgan Stanley believes that regardless of the next Fed chair, the dovish influence will grow, and the US stocks may continue to rise under the expectation of interest - rate cuts [3]. - India hopes to reach an agreement with the US and obtain more favorable tariff rates than Indonesia [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,415 yuan, down 60 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,589 dollars, up 14 dollars from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract changed compared with previous periods [1]. - **Alumina** - The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 3,089 yuan, down 22 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai alumina main contract also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy** - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19,845 yuan, up 25 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume and open interest of the aluminum alloy main contract decreased compared with previous periods [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 471,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from T - 1 [1]. - The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 3,954.53 yuan, up 47.36 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina** - The domestic average price of alumina was 3,196 yuan, up 5 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 249 yuan, up 5 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy** - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 305 yuan, down 31 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The three - place inventory totaled 28,328 tons, up 332 tons from T - 1 [1]. 3.3 Other Information - **Trend Intensity** - Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: 1; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [3]. - **Market News** - Morgan Stanley believes that the US stocks may rise under the expectation of interest - rate cuts [3]. - India hopes to get more favorable tariff rates in the negotiation with the US [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. In the short term, the fluctuation of London gold continues to narrow. Attention should be paid to the support at the 3300 level and the resistance at 3380, as well as the short - term direction selection. The support for London silver is around 37.3, and the resistance is 38.4. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market saw gold and silver oscillating, while platinum and palladium had significant gains and both reached new recent highs. The US dollar index, after a continuous rebound, is facing key resistances at 99 and 100. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is approaching the 4.5% watershed. The surrounding US stocks rose, Bitcoin oscillated, crude oil oscillated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index rose. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3345.4 per ounce, down 0.41%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.435 per ounce, up 0.83%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 776.28 yuan per gram, down 0.03%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9166 yuan per kilogram, up 0.07%. US economic data briefly triggered hawkish concerns from the Fed, causing a decline in precious metals prices during the session, but they quickly recovered and rose [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly cooled. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 46.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.3%. For October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 23.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49.4%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 26.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 0.7%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 2.29 tons to 948.5 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 124.34 tons to 14694.95 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 4.3 tons to 1217.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons as of the week ending July 11 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Attention should be paid to the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the evening [3]. 3.4 Precious Metals Spot and Futures Price Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - It presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, SHFE gold and silver positions, SPDR gold position, and SLV silver position [16][17]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [22].

国泰海通研究指出，近期中东地缘政治冲突局势逐步降温、中美关系边际改善，以及美国经济韧性尚存 的宏观背景下，全球市场风险偏好持续修复。对业绩景气预期持续上修、市场流动性与风险偏好逐渐改 善的港股相对乐观。 中国银河证券表示，展望未来，预计港股市场总体震荡向上，且以结构性行情为主。在全球权益市场 中，港股绝对估值处于相对低位水平、估值分位数处于历史中上水平，中长期配置价值仍然较高。 华泰证券发布港股策略研报称，市场波动率可能走高，板块轮动重要性上升，近关税扰动脱敏，政策预 期升温，南向资金净流入显著增加，外资同步回流。展望看，港股流动性宽裕的中期逻辑未发生显著变 化，但短期伴随热点板块出现调整，资金再配置已悄然进行，指数层面波动率或将进一步放大。 国海富兰克林基金称，下半年对港股市场持谨慎乐观态度，综合考量当前港股市场所具备的低估值优 势，以及国内政策的持续稳步推进，认为港股有望在 2025 年下半年延续震荡上涨的良好态势。 恒生指数高开1.06%，恒生科技指数涨1.31%。科网股领涨，阿里巴巴、网易涨超2%，京东集团、美 团、快手涨近2%。 关于港股后市 华泰柏瑞基金指出，港股的特色主要集中在互联网、创新药等领 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate upward, while silver is predicted to break through and rise [2][5] - Copper prices are supported by good US economic data [2][13] - Zinc is expected to operate within a range [2][17] - The downside of lead prices may be limited [2][19] - Tin prices are weakening [2][22] - Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in aluminum inventory; alumina is expected to oscillate strongly; cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum [2][27] - Nickel is affected by news and its fundamentals are under pressure; stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][30] - Due to supply - side disturbances, the short - term trend of lithium carbonate may be strong [2][35] - For industrial silicon, pay attention to market sentiment due to warehouse receipt accumulation; the polycrystalline silicon market may rise and then fall [2][39] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly supported by macro expectations [2][43] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices will oscillate widely due to strong market sentiment [2][46] - Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy will oscillate widely due to strong steel procurement sentiment [2][50] - Coke has completed the first round of price increase and will oscillate widely; coking coal will oscillate widely [2][24][53] - The daily consumption of thermal coal is recovering, and its price will stabilize with oscillations [2][57] - Logs will oscillate widely [2][61] - Para - xylene and PTA will fluctuate following costs; MEG has low inventory, and positive spreads can be set up when the monthly spread is low [2][65] Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Core View**: Gold to oscillate upward, silver to break through and rise [2][5] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of gold and silver futures and spot markets are provided. The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1 [6] - **News**: Trump's government plans to visit the Fed; Fed Governor Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July; US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month [6][8][9] Copper - **Core View**: US economic data supports copper prices [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of copper futures and spot markets are provided. China's copper imports in June showed different trends [14] - **News**: US retail sales are strong, and the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased; China's copper imports in June are released [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [16] Zinc - **Core View**: Zinc will operate within a range [2][17] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of zinc futures and spot markets are provided [17] - **News**: Potential Fed Chairman candidate Warsh supports Trump's pressure on the Fed; Fed Governor Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [17] Lead - **Core View**: The downside of lead prices may be limited [2][19] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of lead futures and spot markets are provided [19] - **News**: Similar to zinc news [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [20] Tin - **Core View**: Tin prices are weakening [2][22] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of tin futures and spot markets are provided [23] - **News**: Similar to gold and silver news [24] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [26] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core View**: Pay attention to aluminum inventory changes; alumina to oscillate strongly; cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum [2][27] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot markets are provided [27] - **News**: Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's independence is a "myth", and the US stock market may rise under the expectation of rate cuts; the US - India agreement is close to being reached [29] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum: 0; Alumina: 1; Cast Aluminum Alloy: 0 [29] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Core View**: Nickel is affected by news and its fundamentals are under pressure; stainless steel prices will oscillate [2][30] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot markets are provided [30] - **News**: Multiple events in the nickel industry, such as project production, factory shutdowns, and production recoveries [31][32] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [34] Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Due to supply - side disturbances, the short - term trend of lithium carbonate may be strong [2][35] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of lithium carbonate futures and spot markets are provided [35] - **News**: SMM's lithium carbonate index price increased; Zangge Lithium Industry stopped production; this week's lithium carbonate production increased, and inventory also increased [36][37] - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [37] Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - **Core View**: For industrial silicon, pay attention to market sentiment due to warehouse receipt accumulation; the polycrystalline silicon market may rise and then fall [2][39] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon futures and spot markets are provided [39] - **News**: Bangjie Co., Ltd. terminated a photovoltaic project [39][40] - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial Silicon: 0; Polycrystalline Silicon: 0 [42] Iron Ore - **Core View**: Iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly supported by macro expectations [2][43] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of iron ore futures and spot markets are provided [43] - **News**: The Central Urban Work Conference was held [43] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [43] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Core View**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices will oscillate widely due to strong market sentiment [2][46] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot markets are provided [46] - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and export data are released; June's financial data is announced [47][48] - **Trend Intensity**: Rebar: 1; Hot - Rolled Coil: 1 [47] Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy - **Core View**: Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy will oscillate widely due to strong steel procurement sentiment [2][50] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy futures and spot markets are provided [50] - **News**: Spot prices and steel procurement prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are announced; steel production data is released [51][52] - **Trend Intensity**: Silicon Ferroalloy: 0; Manganese Ferroalloy: 0 [52] Coke and Coking Coal - **Core View**: Coke has completed the first round of price increase and will oscillate widely; coking coal will oscillate widely [2][24][53] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and spreads of coke and coking coal futures and spot markets are provided [53] - **News**: Northern port coking coal quotes, CCI metallurgical coal index, and position changes are announced [53][54][55] - **Trend Intensity**: Coke: 0; Coking Coal: 1 [55] Thermal Coal - **Core View**: The daily consumption of thermal coal is recovering, and its price will stabilize with oscillations [2][57] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's trading situation of thermal coal futures, southern port and domestic origin quotes, and position changes are provided [58][59] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [60] Logs - **Core View**: Logs will oscillate widely [2][61] - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday's closing prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and spot market prices of log futures are provided [62] - **News**: The Central Urban Work Conference was held [64] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [64] Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Core View**: Para - xylene and PTA will fluctuate following costs; MEG has low inventory, and positive spreads can be set up when the monthly spread is low [2][65] - No specific fundamentals and news are provided for these three products in the content

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report" [1] - Date: July 18, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, in the short - term, the market will follow the overall commodity trend and fluctuate strongly, but in the long - term, it is bearish due to supply - demand contradictions. For glass, in the short - term, it will fluctuate with the overall commodity trend, and in the long - term, the fundamental driving force is weak [8][10] Group 4: Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On July 17, the main futures contract SA509 of soda ash turned from a decline to a rise, with a closing price of 1,225 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.15%, and a daily reduction of 39,415 lots [7] - In terms of fundamentals, supply and demand both increased, and inventory accumulation still existed. The weekly output was 733,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.42%, and the weekly capacity utilization rate was 84.10%, a week - on - week increase of 2.78%. The enterprise shipment volume was 691,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.48%, and the total inventory of manufacturers was 1.9056 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.26% [8] Glass - In terms of supply, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased, and the supply of float glass also declined, increasing inventory pressure. The mid - stream inventory was at a high level, and the process of capacity reduction was slow, leading to potential further inventory accumulation [9] - In the downstream, the domestic real estate completion stage has not improved substantially, and the industry's downward trend continues. The policy orientation needs further observation [10] Group 5: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, the weekly output and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the output of flat glass [12][13][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with a mid - term view of upward movement. The main logic for the stock index rebound is the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year, strong liquidity support, and the easing of external risks. However, the upward momentum of the previous high - performing sectors has weakened, and without incremental policies in the short term, the stock index may enter a consolidation phase. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in July [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the mid - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillatory and bullish, and the mid - term view is upward, with a reference view of range - bound. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1560.2 billion yuan, an increase of 98.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The main logic for the stock index rebound is the expectation of policy support in the second half of the year due to the insufficient effective domestic demand in the first half. The central bank's net injection of liquidity and the easing of external risks also support the market. However, the upward momentum of the previous high - performing sectors has weakened, and without incremental policies in the short term, the stock index may enter a consolidation phase [4].

文字早评 2025/07/18 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 宏观消息面： 1、两部门：超豪华小汽车消费税起征价格调至 90 万元； 2、广期所对多晶硅期货实施交易限额及调整工业硅期货 SI2509 合约交易限额； 3、特朗普：对日征收 25%关税 或很快与印度达成协定； 4、美国 6 月进口价格同比下降 0.2%，预估上涨 0.4%。美国 6 月进口价格环比上涨 0.1%，预估上涨 0.3%； 5、美国 6 月零售销售环比增长 0.6%，预估为 0.1%，前值为-0.9%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.09%/-0.28%/-0.56%/-1.49%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.00%/-0.85%/-1.72%/-3.83%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.02%/-1.07%/-2.22%/-5.09%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.01%/-0.08%/-0.10%/-0.02%。 交易逻辑：海外方面，近期主要关注点在美国对各国征收关税带来的影响。国内方面，重点关注 7 月份 "中央政治局会议"预期。近期防内卷及稳定币等题材带动市场风偏提升，相关权重板块带动 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 货币政策环境偏向宽松，但短期 降息可能性不高 | 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。从中长期的角度来看，由于国内需求端有效需求不足的问 题仍然存在，下半年仍然需要偏宽松的货币环境来托底经济，利率仍 ...

业内人士认为，多晶硅期货这波上涨，主要是受宏观政策预期推动。据悉，自6月底以来，有关光伏行 业的政策消息不断。中信建投期货分析师王彦青表示，随着供给侧调控不断深化，在销售价格不低于成 本的约束下，多晶硅下游价格同步跟涨，在情绪上形成正反馈。 据了解，随着政策预期持续发酵，多晶硅厂家开始逐步提高报价，下游硅片、电池片也开始涨价。 "多晶硅限价销售政策是近期支撑行情上涨的重要因素，尽管该消息目前尚未得到企业确认，但昨日开 盘后，多晶硅期货价格大幅拉涨，也侧面反映了市场对行业未来发展预期的改善。"国信期货分析师李 祥英认为，此前市场一直在关注高价硅料能否顺利向下传导，目前来看下游产品价格也受到了限价政策 影响，跟随硅料价格上行。从盘面价格来看，昨日多晶硅期货也基本锚定43874元/吨的价格高开，随后 继续强势上涨。 期货日报网讯（记者 刘威魁）7月17日，多晶硅期货延续上涨态势，主力PS2508合约报收45700元/吨， 涨幅为7.49%，创下上市以来新高，较6月下旬30400元/吨的低点上涨50.3%。 据王彦青测算，在PS综合能耗53kwh/kg、电价0.3元/kwh的水平下，目前多晶硅致密料含税综合成本为 4 ...