1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global risk preference is on the rise due to the positive progress of US trade negotiations, with the US showing good progress in tariff negotiations, such as the potential for an interim trade agreement between India and the US by the end of the month and the near - agreement on steel import tariffs between the US and Mexico. In China, May's export was slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, which boosts domestic risk preference in the short term [3]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position strategy; bonds are at a high level and volatile, suggesting cautious observation; commodities show different trends in sub - sectors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Global and Domestic Market Conditions**: Overseas, US tariff negotiations are going well, which boosts global risk preference. In China, May's export was slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, strengthening the short - term economic pull of net exports and boosting domestic risk preference. The ongoing Sino - US economic and trade consultations may affect the market in the short term, increasing market volatility [3]. - **Asset Performance and Strategies**: Stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position strategy; bonds are at a high level and volatile, suggesting cautious observation; in the commodity sector, black commodities are rebounding from a low level, suggesting cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are oscillating and rebounding, suggesting cautious long - positions; energy and chemical products are oscillating and rebounding, suggesting long - positions; precious metals are at a high level and volatile, suggesting long - positions [3]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: Domestic stocks continued to decline slightly, dragged down by sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and military industry. - **Fundamentals and Influencing Factors**: China's May export was slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, which helps boost domestic risk preference in the short term. The ongoing Sino - US economic and trade consultations may affect the market in the short term, increasing market volatility. The market's trading logic focuses on US trade policy changes and trade negotiation progress. - **Operation Strategy**: Short - term cautious long - positions [4]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold prices fell slightly, with Shanghai gold dropping to 774 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver remaining at a high level of 8889 yuan. - **Influencing Factors**: Trade improvement boosts risk preference. Investors are waiting for more information on Sino - US consultations and focusing on the upcoming consumer price index data to judge the Fed's policy path. There are stagflation risks, and the Sino - US economic and trade consultation eases the trade situation, but negotiations between the US and other countries are ongoing. - **Operation Strategy**: Silver has a demand for technical breakthrough and catch - up growth, and the gold - silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to remain at a high level and volatile. A callback - buying strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to long - term layout opportunities after a phased callback [5]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell slightly as the market awaited the results of Sino - US trade talks. - **Influencing Factors**: The US Commerce Secretary said the talks were fruitful, but no agreement was announced. Some Canadian oil sands production affected by wildfires is resuming, and API data shows concerns about recent demand due to large increases in refined oil inventories despite a slight decrease in crude oil inventories. - **Trend Outlook**: Oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the near future [6][7]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell slightly, and asphalt prices remained at a high level and volatile. - **Influencing Factors**: Demand has recovered to some extent, but the recovery is limited. The basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly, and the market structure has weakened following the spot market. After profit recovery, production has increased, and inventory depletion has stagnated. - **Trend Outlook**: In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [7]. PX - **Market Performance**: PX prices are in a weak and volatile short - term pattern, with the external market price dropping to 817 US dollars and the PXN spread dropping to 257 US dollars. - **Influencing Factors**: PTA's recent increase in production has led to higher future demand for PX, and there are still many domestic maintenance plans from June to July, so the supply is expected to be tight. However, the recent decline in PTA prices has led to a decline in the external PX market. - **Trend Outlook**: It will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PTA's basis remains high, and the monthly spread has declined slightly. There is a high probability of a slight inventory accumulation pattern starting in June, and after the June contract delivery, the tight supply in the circulation link may ease, and both the structure and price may decline. - **Influencing Factors**: In recent days, the polyester market's logic is mainly related to the cost side, with a high degree of resonance with crude oil and limited self - driving factors. - **Trend Outlook**: It will mainly maintain a weak and volatile pattern [7]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The visible inventory of ethylene glycol remains above 650,000 tons, and inventory depletion is limited. - **Influencing Factors**: There are still many expectations for the return of syngas plants, and the supply side is putting pressure on the market. Downstream production has decreased due to production cuts, and the inventory depletion rate may decrease marginally. - **Trend Outlook**: It may maintain a volatile pattern in the near future [8]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: Short - fiber prices are in a weak and volatile pattern. - **Influencing Factors**: The recovery of terminal orders is significantly slower than expected, and short - fiber prices have weakened. Downstream production is expected to decrease in the short term, and short - term orders are still weak, leading to an increase in inventory. - **Trend Outlook**: It will continue to be weak and volatile in the short term [8]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The port methanol market price is oscillating and rising, and the basis has increased. The inland and port inventories are rising simultaneously. - **Influencing Factors**: Due to the "ship age limit" event, the expected import volume is decreasing, and the port inventory accumulation process is expected to slow down. Inland plant production is gradually increasing, and the supply is abundant, while the downstream demand is generally good. - **Trend Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, but the price may decline in the long term [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The domestic PP market is oscillating narrowly, and the futures price has slightly recovered with other energy - chemical products, but the space is limited. - **Influencing Factors**: PP production is increasing both year - on - year and month - on - month, with new production capacity being put into operation. Downstream production has slightly decreased, and inventory has increased significantly after the holiday, with high finished - product inventory, and the fundamentals are deteriorating. - **Trend Outlook**: The price will be under pressure and move downward in the long term [10]. LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The polyethylene market price has been adjusted, with prices rising in different regions. - **Influencing Factors**: The import windows for some LD and HD varieties are open, but there are not many import offers. The proportion of linear film production is the highest, and plant production is gradually resuming, while downstream production has slightly decreased, and inventory has increased to a neutral level. The expected new production capacity is suppressing prices. - **Trend Outlook**: The rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to medium - and long - term short - selling opportunities [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The market is waiting for the results of Sino - US negotiations in London, and copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. - **Influencing Factors**: The copper ore supply is relatively tight, the copper concentrate TC has slightly increased, and the port inventory of copper concentrate is at a high level. Electrolytic copper production is at a high level, and there is no strong motivation for production cuts. The peak demand season is approaching its end, and there are risks of a marginal decline in demand. - **Trend Outlook**: It will be volatile in the short term [13]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum ingot inventories have continued to decline significantly, but the market's expectations are weak. - **Influencing Factors**: The subsidy funds for home appliances in Zhengzhou have been used up, and the demand side may weaken marginally under the high - supply background, and inventory depletion may slow down or even turn into inventory accumulation. - **Trend Outlook**: No clear short - term trend is mentioned, but there are concerns about future inventory changes [13]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices have rebounded, and there is potential for further short - term price repair. - **Influencing Factors**: The domestic tin ore supply is tight, processing fees have decreased, and the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has declined. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed, and Thailand has suspended tin ore transportation from Myanmar. The demand side has mixed trends, with some products maintaining high growth and others weakening, and it is entering the seasonal off - season. - **Trend Outlook**: The price may continue to repair in the short term, but the upside space is limited due to high - tariff risks, resumption of production expectations, and marginal demand decline [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT 11 - month soybean contract closed at 1031.25, up 0.50 or 0.05%. - **Influencing Factors**: The weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas are good, the sowing progress is fast, and the production situation is stable for now. In South America, Brazil's soybean premium is still strong, and Argentina's soybean harvest is 91%, with the production volume adjusted down to 48.5 million tons. The USDA's June supply - demand report may have a neutral impact on the market, and the focus is on the end - of - month US soybean planting area forecast report. - **Trend Outlook**: The market expects an increase in US soybean planting area compared to previous expectations [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Performance**: The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate increased by 1.49% to 65.03% compared to the previous day. - **Influencing Factors**: The soybean meal basis is low, and inventory repair is ongoing. The lack of upward momentum in US soybeans also means that soybean meal lacks stable upward support. For rapeseed meal, the inventory depletion in ports is slow, the Sino - Canadian trade relationship is expected to improve, and downstream demand is cautious due to the higher cost - performance of soybean meal. - **Trend Outlook**: No clear short - term trend is mentioned [16]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The short - term port inventory pressure is not large, and the price is stable. - **Influencing Factors**: The price difference between Shandong and North Ports/South Ports and North Ports is high, and the North Port's shipping volume is large, with rapid inventory depletion. The inventory of North China's deep - processing enterprises is at the end - of - year level, and the replenishment demand is strong. The proportion of wheat used for feed is increasing in most regions except for wheat - producing and consuming areas. - **Trend Outlook**: In the medium term, if the price difference between Brazilian and domestic corn narrows as expected, the price of old - crop corn is likely to rise [17]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: In May, Malaysia's palm oil production, import, export, and ending inventory all increased. In June, Malaysia's palm oil exports continued to improve, and the price remained stable within a certain range. - **Influencing Factors**: The improvement in exports and the strength of external crude oil and oils support palm oil prices. - **Trend Outlook**: It will remain stable within a certain range [18]. Pork - **Market Performance**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the slaughter volume decreased, but the order volume has increased recently. The spot price has stabilized after a decline. - **Influencing Factors**: Consumption is weak in summer, and the supply is increasing as large - scale farms plan to increase the slaughter volume in June, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing. The "reserve purchase" information has boosted the farmers' reluctance to sell, and the second - fattening enthusiasm has increased, which has helped stabilize the spot price. - **Trend Outlook**: The futures and spot markets are under pressure in the short term, but the spot price has shown signs of stabilization [18].

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 宏观方面，一是 6 月美国国债到期，市场存担忧情绪，二是国内宏观利 好政策出台，央行在 6 月 5 日开展 1 万亿元买断式逆回购，来缓冲 市场资金流动性，三是中美关系异动，6 月 5 日晚中美首脑 3 个月内 第一次通电话，预计特朗普即将访问中国，并且启动新一轮中美贸易谈 判，四是 6 月 5 日欧洲央行降息，五是 CFTC 基金持仓净空恢复维持 2.94 万手。基本面来看，国内目前供需形势，本年度商业库存预测 8 月底为 155 万吨，去年是 214 万吨，23 年是 163 万吨，今年显然 商业库存偏紧。对于 09 合约，显然有支撑，所以现货基差偏强，棉花 短期基本面供应是偏紧的，在国内通缩和出口受阻的形势下，棉花整体 表现震荡抗跌的形态。新季度全球今年丰产概率增大，新疆丰产，预计 产量 720-750 万吨，巴西丰产至 395 万吨，美国干旱指数出现拐点 向下，预计单产提升，虽然面积减少，可能产量跟与去年保持持平。消 费端，可变性较大，主要取决于美国对等关税的态度以及美联储降息时 间，跟中国宏观持有积极态度，何时形成共振。短中期来看，进入 6、 7 月为对等 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The black industry is expected to have a mixed performance with different products showing varying trends. The market is influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, policy, and macro - economic news [1][3]. - **Specific products**: - **螺纹钢**: Futures prices are expected to move weakly in a range due to potential seasonal demand slowdown and relatively balanced supply - demand. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trades [1]. - **铁矿石**: The iron ore market is likely to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach as it is more affected by macro news and port inventory is expected to continue decreasing [1]. - **双焦**: Both coking coal and coke markets are expected to continue oscillating in the short term. For coking coal, focus on coal mine inventory reduction, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand. For coke, pay attention to steel prices, steel mill blast furnace maintenance, and coking enterprise production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **螺纹钢** - **Price and basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of rebar oscillated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (+7) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The supply - demand is relatively balanced currently, with production declining for two consecutive weeks and inventory de - stocking slowing down. There may be a slight inventory build - up later [1]. - **Outlook**: The current futures price is near the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. Given the low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies and the loosening of real - world supply - demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. **铁矿石** - **Price and basis**: On Tuesday, the iron ore futures oscillated. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 719 yuan/wet ton (- 5). The Platts 62% index was 94.95 dollars/ton (- 0.25), with a monthly average of 95.70 dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 60 yuan/ton (- 1) [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,839.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104.04. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 [1]. - **Outlook**: The iron ore market is mainly affected by macro news. With the high - yield shipments of overseas mainstream mines at the end of the fiscal year, the port inventory is expected to continue decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range [1]. **双焦** - **Coking coal** - **Supply**: Some coal mines have experienced phased production cuts, but the overall supply is still loose. Coal mine inventories are high, and the intermediate - link procurement is cautious [3]. - **Demand**: After the third round of price cuts for coke, coking enterprises' profit margins have been further compressed, and they maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy. Steel mills' procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Coke** - **Supply**: The production rhythm of coking enterprises is differentiated, with some experiencing passive production cuts due to profit pressure and environmental inspections, and the overall start - up level has declined [3]. - **Demand**: The steel market is entering the traditional off - season, and the terminal demand is limited. Steel mills' demand for coke has limited growth, and their procurement is cautious [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of coke remains loose. Although the supply has marginally shrunk, the demand support is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. **产经要闻** - **Industrial projects**: On June 7, Jin'an Mining's 9 - series permanent magnet ferrite ultra - pure iron powder pre - fired material project was put into production. Shanxi Jianlong and Shanxi Meijin resumed production, while Luzhou Xinyang Vanadium Titanium Steel plans to reduce production due to high - temperature weather [6]. - **Real estate**: From June 2nd to June 8th, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 26.9% week - on - week and 17.5% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand housing decreased by 11.8% week - on - week and 9.5% year - on - year [6]. - **Construction machinery**: In May 2025, the domestic sales of various excavators were 18,202 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. From January to May, a total of 101,700 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 17.4% [6]. - **Government bonds**: As of June 10, 2025, the new issuance scale of domestic land reserve special bonds has reached 108.348 billion yuan, involving 442 projects and 24 special bonds [6].

Macro and Strategy Research - In May 2025, China's exports in USD terms grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% in the previous month, while imports fell by 3.4%, compared to a decline of 0.2% previously. The trade surplus reached USD 103.22 billion, up from USD 96.18 billion [4][5] - The slowdown in export growth is attributed to high base effects and global economic downturn concerns, with the global manufacturing PMI remaining below 50 for three consecutive months. Exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5%, influenced by new tariffs and cautious sentiment among traders [4][5] - Import demand showed weakness, with agricultural imports rising by 17.9% year-on-year, while other major commodities experienced negative growth, indicating a need for policy support to boost domestic demand [5] Fixed Income Research - For the period from June 2 to June 8, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds increased, while transaction amounts decreased. The net financing amount for credit bonds rose, with corporate bonds and medium-term notes seeing increases, while company bonds and short-term financing bonds saw reductions [6][8] - The overall yield on medium and short-term notes and corporate bonds declined, while city investment bonds showed mixed results. The credit spread for medium and short-term notes widened, indicating a complex market environment [8] - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend for yields is downward, and investors should focus on timing their investments and monitoring interest rate trends [8] Industry Research - In the steel sector, demand is expected to decline as the off-season deepens, leading to a potential accumulation of steel inventory. The short-term outlook remains weak for steel prices [10][11] - For copper, tight supply at the mine level supports prices, but the lack of demand during the off-season may lead to volatility, particularly influenced by US-China trade negotiations [10][11] - The aluminum market faces uncertainty due to macroeconomic factors, while low domestic inventory provides some price support. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [10][11] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions, US interest rate expectations, and geopolitical factors, with a focus on macroeconomic data and trade developments [10][11] - The lithium market is experiencing oversupply, leading to price weakness, while the rare earth sector is positioned for long-term growth due to policy support and emerging demand from robotics and renewable energy [10][11]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 预期现实博弈，矿价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 中美贸易谈判预期向好，市场情绪回暖，驱动黑色金属低位回升，但铁矿石供需格局在走弱，矿 石终端消耗高位回落，且淡季存有减量空间，需求利好效应趋弱；相反财年末海外矿商冲量，矿石发 运积极，即便内矿生产受限 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategies, and commodity sectors. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics. The overall sentiment varies across different markets, with some expected to be bullish, some bearish, and others in a state of oscillation. For example, the bond market is expected to go bullish, while the iron ore market is expected to remain weak [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May NFIB small business confidence index was 98.8, higher than expected. Gold prices oscillated and closed down. If the tariff issue eases, gold may continue to fall; if it worsens, the upside is limited. Short - term gold is expected to be weak with a risk of correction [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - The central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. The market believes the probability of a successful Sino - US trade negotiation is low. The bond market is expected to go bullish in July. There are two possible paths for the bullish trend, and the first path is more likely. It is recommended to take a bullish approach [16][17][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The leaders of China and South Korea had a phone call, emphasizing strengthening cooperation. The A - share market tumbled on June 10th, and the market's expectation for the Sino - US talks has deteriorated. Due to high valuation levels, the market will be more volatile. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [20][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan and the US are arranging a meeting between their leaders. Trump defined the Los Angeles riots as a "foreign invasion", which may intensify the situation in the short - term. The World Bank lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. The US dollar index is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24][26][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and Mexico are close to an agreement on steel tariffs. The Sino - US trade negotiation is reported to be going well. TSMC's May revenue increased year - on - year. The market is optimistic about the negotiation results, but there is still a risk of disappointment. It is not recommended to chase the high [29][30][32]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Abiove maintained Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts but lowered the price forecast. The market is optimistic about the Sino - US talks. Domestic demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the Sino - US talks and the USDA monthly report, and expect the futures price to oscillate [33][34][35]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in the northern ports was stable on June 10th. The coal price is temporarily stable due to downstream replenishment and upstream supply control, but it may decline again in summer. The growth rate of thermal power consumption has not increased significantly in June, and the risk of new energy substitution should be watched [36]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Zhengzhou will suspend the subsidy application for consumer goods trade - in of home appliances. The iron ore price is expected to remain weak due to weak sentiment in the industrial products market and seasonal pressure, but the decline may be gentle [37][39][41]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian officials called for an increase in the minimum sugar price. India is expected to have sugar production surpluses for at least two consecutive years. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of June decreased year - on - year. The international sugar market supply is increasing, and the domestic market may be affected by imports. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar futures will oscillate weakly [42][43][44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Heavy rain in East China may suppress the demand for building materials. The Sino - US trade negotiation is unclear, and the steel price is oscillating. The demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies in the spot market [45][46][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Aonong Biological's hog sales in May increased year - on - year, while New Hope's executives plan to reduce their shareholdings. The hog market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the short - term futures price may be weak. It is recommended to wait and watch and look for short - selling opportunities on significant rallies [48][49][50]. 2.7 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is weak. Although the futures price rebounded, the spot price is still weak. The supply is shrinking, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is recommended to treat the current situation as a rebound and wait and watch [51]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Longi Green Energy's 3GW BC photovoltaic module project was announced. There are some market rumors about polysilicon production, but the actual situation is different. The supply in June is expected to increase, and the market is currently in a stalemate. It is recommended to take a short - term short and long - term long approach [52][53][54]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Silicon Industry refuted the rumor of equity transfer. Some silicon plants in Sichuan are resuming production, while those in Yunnan are still waiting. The demand is weak, and the price is close to the cash cost line. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply changes [55][56]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Zambia invites automobile manufacturers to set up factories in copper - mining areas. Rio Tinto reaffirmed its copper production guidance for 2025. The LME copper inventory is changing. The short - term macro - factors have a neutral impact on copper prices, and the fundamentals have limited contradictions. It is recommended to wait and watch [57][59][60]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount on June 9th. The supply of lead has decreased marginally, while the demand is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate widely in June, and it is recommended to wait and watch in the short - term and look for long - term low - buying opportunities [62][63]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a discount on June 9th. The zinc market is expected to show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in June. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the accumulation of put options. The mid - term strategy is to do an internal - external positive arbitrage [64][65]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL announced the mass production of 587Ah cells. Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China in May were lower than expected. The market may be in a tight balance or slight de - stocking in June. It is recommended to short on rallies [66][67]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA lowered the forecast for US crude oil production in 2026. The US API crude oil inventory decreased slightly. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price closed at 67.67 yuan/ton on June 10th, slightly down. The CEA price is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the market is expected to be oversupplied in 2025. It is recommended to expect a weak oscillation [71][72]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis is strong, and the market negotiation is okay. The demand is in a seasonal off - season, while the supply is increasing. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [73][74]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Sinopec raised the pure benzene listing price. The styrene price rebounded, mainly driven by cost and capital. The pure benzene supply may decrease marginally in July. It is recommended to consider the potential of pure benzene as a chemical allocation [75][76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong was stable on June 10th. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract of caustic soda may be limited in its downward space due to the large discount [78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market increased slightly. The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the market is expected to oscillate [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export and domestic prices are mostly stable. The industry has high supply pressure, but the processing fee is close to the historical low. Some large factories plan to reduce production. It is recommended to go long on the bottle chip processing fee on dips [84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market in China was slightly stronger. The futures price oscillated, and the downstream demand was weak. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's soda ash production is normal. The soda ash market is weak and stable, with high supply and low demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [86][87][88]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei was stable on June 10th. The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot market was weak. With the coming of summer and the rainy season, the demand will decline seasonally, and the price may continue to fall. The short - term futures price may be affected by market sentiment [89].

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, particularly due to the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and warnings from the World Bank about potential global trade stagnation [2]. - The progress of US-China trade negotiations is influencing gold price corrections, as market expectations of a potential agreement could ease trade tensions and reduce demand for safe-haven assets [3]. - Key economic indicators to watch include the US CPI data, with expectations of a rise in core CPI to 2.9% year-on-year, which could impact Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and subsequently affect gold prices [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold showed a doji candlestick pattern, indicating a struggle between bulls and bears around current price levels, with significant support at 3293 and resistance at 3349 [5]. - The four-hour chart indicates that gold has completed a three-wave structure in its recent price movements, with critical levels at 3293 for support and 3349 for resistance, suggesting potential for further downward movement if these levels are breached [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of soft commodities is complex with different trends in each sector. Most sectors suggest a wait - and - see approach due to various influencing factors such as trade negotiations, weather, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly. Spot cotton trading was fair with positive trader purchases and a firm basis. Cotton yarn enterprises sold at market prices, but market confidence was low with decreasing downstream operation and rising inventory. As of end - May, commercial cotton inventory was 345.87 million tons, down 69.39 million tons month - on - month and 31.54 million tons year - on - year. Suggested to wait and see or go long at low prices [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. In Brazil, May 1 - 15 production data was mixed with lower cane crushing and sugar output but higher sugar - making ratio. In the Northern Hemisphere, expected above - average rainfall in Q3 in India and Thailand is beneficial for cane growth. In China, as of end - May, cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.1 million tons year - on - year; sales ratio was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster; industrial inventory was 304.83 million tons, down 32.21 million tons year - on - year. US sugar trend is downward, so Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited. Expected short - term oscillation and suggested to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices were weak. Spot prices were stable. Demand entered the off - season with lower apple demand due to more seasonal fruits and hot weather. Market focus shifted to new - season production estimates. Cold snaps and winds in the western产区 may affect fruit - setting and quality, but overall low - temperature impact on yield was small, mainly increasing fruit rust risk. Flower quantity was sufficient, so production estimate was bearish. Suggested to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU&WR rose, BR fell slightly. Domestic natural rubber prices were stable to rising, synthetic rubber prices were stable, and upstream butadiene port prices were stable. Global natural rubber supply entered the growth period. Last week, domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly, while upstream butadiene plant operating rate rose slightly. Domestic full - steel tire operating rate fell slightly, semi - steel tire operating rate dropped significantly, and tire inventory decreased. Qingdao natural rubber inventory fell to 60.55 million tons, Chinese butadiene port inventory fell to 2.7 million tons, and Chinese cis - butadiene rubber social inventory fell to 1.35 million tons. Suggested to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures fell slightly. Spot prices were stable. As of June 5, 2025, Chinese pulp port inventory was 215.7 million tons, down 0.4 million tons from the previous period. May imports were 301.6 million tons, and January - May cumulative imports were 1,554.7 million tons, up 2.1% year - on - year. Macro - level Sino - US trade showed positive signals. Domestic port inventory was high, demand was weak, and supply was ample. Pulp valuation was low with strong support near the previous low. Suggested to wait and see for long - entry opportunities on significant pullbacks [7] Logs - Futures prices oscillated. Spot prices were stable. In June, New Zealand log prices stopped falling and stabilized, with a $2 month - on - month increase in 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine CFR price. After the increase in foreign quotes, the spot price bottom rose, supporting futures prices. In the off - season, port daily outbound volume was over 60,000 cubic meters. As of May 30, national port log inventory was 3.41 million cubic meters, down 20,000 cubic meters month - on - month. New Zealand log shipments will remain low due to poor profits, but domestic demand is in the off - season, so price rebound momentum is weak. Suggested to wait and see [8]

6月10日亚洲时段，现货黄金延续上周五跌势，伦敦金现价围绕3307美元/盎司震荡，早盘最低触及3301.85美元/盎司，较 前一交易日下跌0.52%。美元指数同步走强，亚盘最高触及99.3050，当前报99.2390，较周一收盘价上涨0.27%。 | 美元指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | S FX DINIW √ √ 外汇 ■ Level1基础行情 | | | | ② 已添加 | | 99.239000 +0.2690 +0.2700% | | | | | | 交易中 06-10 11:02 北京时间 | | | | | | 行情 | | | | | | 今开 98.9730 | 最高 | 99.3050 | 买入价 | 99.2320 | | 昨收 98.9700 | 最低 | 98.8940 | 卖出价 | 99.2450 | | - 现货黄金 XAUUSD | | | | | | 3308.26 -17.35 (-0.52%) | | | | | | on 1000 color. 2000 2000 0000 AUT | | | | | | 昨 ...

日前，中美双方在伦敦展开了又一次贸易谈判，算上前不久的中美最高层通话，这算是中美明面上的第3轮接触。可以看到，3轮接触下来，局势已经很清晰 了，特朗普也很清楚一件事，那就是美国已经彻底落入下风。 因此可以预见，现在特朗普嘴还很硬，但随着中美贸易谈判的不断进行，到了第四轮、第五轮接触，特朗普就要服软了。因为特朗普万年不变的对华手段， 早就被中国看穿。 首先，这次谈判地点选在了伦敦，还是比较出人意料的。有人可能会比较担心，不同于以往像瑞士这样的中立国，英国是美国坚定的传统盟友，在伦敦谈判 会不会对中国不利。在我看来，这种担心是没有必要的。 虽然美国和英国的关税谈判已经结束，双方看似达成了一致，但与此同时，英国工党上台以后，中英关系也肉眼可见地缓和。因此，这次谈判地点选在英 国，其实更加反映出了，英国在中美关系之间的微妙平衡。 特朗普政府曾以为，通过限制中国稀土出口，就能逼迫中方在谈判桌上让步。但现实狠狠打了他们的脸。中国不仅没有松口，反而在谈判前进一步收紧稀土 出口管制，直接导致美国车企生产线停摆。 福特、通用因稀土短缺被迫停产，波音787客机因无法采购中国稀土永磁电机，订单交付延迟三个月。与此同时，更让美国气急 ...