1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report Core Views - The supply pressure of live pigs remains high, and the rebound of futures prices is under pressure. In the short - term, the spot is firm and macro funds boost the market, but the hedging pressure above 12,000 for off - season contracts increases. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter continues to grow, and the price after the Spring Festival is under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong but still above the equilibrium level [5][54]. - The supply pressure of eggs still exists, and the rebound of the futures price is restricted. Although the demand before the Spring Festival drives up the egg price, the sufficient supply limits the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists, and the market needs to go through a bottom - grinding process [6][78]. - The short - term supply and demand of corn are balanced, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is looser year - on - year, which restricts the upside space [7][104]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Feed and Livestock Views Summary 3.1.1 Live Pigs - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the national spot price was 12.69 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2503 was up 210 yuan/ton. The high price suppresses consumption, but the slow enterprise出栏 rhythm and other factors drive up the price [5][54]. - **Supply End**: The inventory of reproductive sows is slowly decreasing, but the supply remains high before the first half of the year. The supply pressure in the first quarter is large according to piglet data. The planned出栏 volume of large - scale enterprises in January decreases, the出栏 weight increases, and the secondary fattening is sporadic [5][54]. - **Demand End**: The slaughter rate and volume decline, the fresh - sales rate increases, and the frozen - product inventory decreases. The Spring Festival stocking period has not started, and the demand growth is weak [5][54]. - **Cost End**: The prices of piglets and binary reproductive sows rise, the self - breeding and self - raising profit turns positive, and the cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increases slightly [5][54]. - **Weekly Summary**: There is a risk of pig price decline in the short - term, and the price is not optimistic during the Spring Festival and after. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong but still above the equilibrium level [5][54]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short - term, wait for the opportunity to short on rebounds. In the long - term, the industry can hedge at high prices when the profit is positive [5][54]. 3.1.2 Eggs - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the average price in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan/jin, up 0.37 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of eggs 2603 was up 32 yuan/500 kg. The approaching Spring Festival drives up the egg price [6][78]. - **Supply End**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in January is at an average level, and the inventory is slowly decreasing but still large. In the long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease, but it still takes time [6][78]. - **Demand End**: The approaching Spring Festival drives up the demand, and the substitution demand is good. The inventory in the production link is not large, while that in the circulation link is relatively high [6][78]. - **Weekly Summary**: The egg price rises seasonally in the short - term, but the sufficient supply limits the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [6][78]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait for the spot price increase to be less than expected and hedge the 03 contract after the Spring Festival at high prices [6][78]. 3.1.3 Corn - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of corn 2603 was up 18 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are balanced, and the price is at a high level [7][104]. - **Supply End**: The national grain - selling progress is 53%, and the supply is relatively average. The import of corn increases, and the inventory in ports decreases [7][104]. - **Demand End**: The feed demand is rigid, but the increase in corn price may lead to a shift to wheat procurement. The deep - processing demand is limited by factors such as high inventory and low profit [7][104]. - **Weekly Summary**: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the price is at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is looser year - on - year [7][104]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short - term, be cautious about chasing high prices, and hedging at high prices when the price rebounds. In the long - term, the upside space is restricted [7][104]. 3.2 Variety Industry Data Analysis 3.2.1 Live Pigs - **Weekly Market Review**: The futures price of live pigs 2503 rose, the basis decreased slightly, and the spot price increased [13]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on supply, demand, cost, profit, etc. show that the supply pressure is large, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit turns positive [10]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of reproductive sows is slowly decreasing, the production performance is improving, and the supply in the first quarter is expected to be high [17]. 3.2.2 Eggs - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot and futures prices of eggs increased, and the basis strengthened [59]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on price, supply, demand, inventory, and profit show that the supply pressure exists, and the demand before the Spring Festival drives the price up [60]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of laying hens is slowly decreasing, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the long - term [78]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot and futures prices of corn increased, and the basis strengthened [84]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on price, supply, demand, inventory, and profit show that the short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is looser [85]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the import increases, and the demand is rigid but the deep - processing demand is limited [104].

Core Viewpoint - The hot-rolled coil market shows resilience in demand, with prices experiencing a slight increase in January, indicating a potential for price stability despite underlying supply-demand challenges [1] Group 1: Market Price Trends - As of January 16, the national average price for hot-rolled coils is 3,290 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 22 yuan per ton or 0.67% since the beginning of January [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Production enterprises are resuming operations, leading to a continuous increase in output, while market participants focus on destocking, which may exert downward pressure on prices [1] - Despite the weak supply-demand fundamentals, there is resilient downstream demand and potential strengthening of raw material prices, which could lead to a slight increase in costs [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Expectations - Recent improvements in macroeconomic expectations have bolstered market sentiment and funding, providing additional support for price stability [1] - Overall, while the supply-demand balance appears weak, the strengthening of raw materials and market sentiment may continue to support prices in a fluctuating yet upward trend [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market has large sentiment fluctuations, and it is expected that benzene and styrene will mainly fluctuate [3]. - The Asian benzene market is affected by factors such as the strength of US benzene prices, downstream styrene market support, and market sentiment, maintaining a volatile state. The supply can meet the demand, and the overall demand is stable while overseas demand is weak [77]. - The Asian styrene market has rebounded, but high inventory and weak overseas demand still limit its upward space [126]. - The overseas benzene and styrene markets are both facing the dual pressures of improved supply and weak demand in the short - term, and the profitability is under pressure [68][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The economic situation of styrene producers in Asia has recovered but remains negative. The spread between styrene and naphtha is $290, and the spread between styrene and benzene is stable at $165 [3]. - **Demand**: As of January 5, 2026, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.00% and a year - on - year increase of 71.71%. From December 29 to January 4, the estimated arrival was about 25,000 tons and the pick - up was about 7,000 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 5, 2026, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period [3]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis has slightly strengthened. Overseas demand for blending oil has weakened, and Trump's foreign policy significantly affects oil prices. Attention should be paid to changes in cost support [3]. - **Profit**: The spread between styrene and naphtha is $290, and the spread between styrene and benzene is stable at $165. Styrene profit has slightly recovered [3]. - **Valuation**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows. Overseas export demand is driving up prices, and the market is paying attention to the strengthening of basis and monthly spread performance [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Trump is planning to dominate the Venezuelan oil industry, which may lower oil prices. If successful, the US will control most of the oil reserves in the Western Hemisphere and gain an important say in the final flow of crude oil [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Crude Oil**: Trump's policy changes significantly affect oil prices [5]. - **Styrene**: Non - integrated styrene unit profits are average, and styrene profits have relatively expanded [14][23]. - **Pure Benzene**: Pure benzene inventory remains at a high level [32]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: In the off - season, demand is weak, and ABS profits are shrinking [46]. - **Styrene Downstream - PS**: PS production margins are weak, and demand is difficult to follow up [59]. - **Styrene Downstream - EPS**: EPS prices are at a low level, and inventory continues to accumulate [69]. - **Pure Benzene - Aniline**: Aniline production has declined, and margins have rebounded [79]. - **Styrene Overseas**: The overseas styrene market is in a post - holiday slump. Profits are expected to be negative in early 2026, and production is restricted by cost pressure [87]. - **Phenol**: Phenol port inventory remains at a low level [88]. - **Adipic Acid**: Adipic acid profits are low [99]. - **Caprolactam**: Caprolactam production load has declined, and inventory has been depleted [111]. - **Appliance Production**: Refrigerator and freezer production schedules and household air - conditioner production schedules are provided, but no specific analysis is given [122][124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main contract of soybean oil rose this week. The auction of imported soybeans is expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil. Although the current supply of soybean oil in China has tightened, the overall supply remains abundant. The continued upward drive of soybean oil is expected to be insufficient, and long - position holders are advised to exit and wait and see. The support level of the main 05 contract is 7600 - 7650 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8030 - 8050 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil fluctuated widely this week. The news of the Canadian Prime Minister's upcoming visit to China has put pressure on the rapeseed oil market. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still in a destocking state. In the short term, rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. In the long - term, the expected increase in Australian rapeseed supply and the global rapeseed harvest pattern will still pose significant pressure on prices. One - sided short - selling at high prices can be considered. The 05 contract has a pressure range of 9300 - 9350 yuan/ton and a support level of 8650 - 8700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract of palm oil strengthened with fluctuations this week. The approach of India's traditional New Year stocking and the significant improvement in January's Malaysian palm oil export data have increased market expectations for export demand recovery. The Indonesian president's statement has raised concerns about future supply tightening. The strong biodiesel policy and supply tightening expectations have jointly supported palm oil prices. However, the inventory accumulation expectation for Malaysian palm oil in December is still high. The palm oil market has short - term bearish and long - term bullish prospects. Cautious investors are advised to wait for the release of the MPOB report before considering long - position entry at low prices. The main contract has a support level of 8300 - 8350 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 8700 - 8750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 rose and then fell this week. The auction of imported soybeans is expected to ensure sufficient supply. The 05 contracts of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 are expected to be sold short on rebounds [4][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell this week. The news of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China has put pressure on the domestic rapeseed market. The inventory is continuously decreasing, but the fundamental outlook is still bearish. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and short - selling at high prices can be considered [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The main contract of soybean No. 1 rose and then fell this week. The market logic has not changed significantly. The valuation is not low, and the continued upward drive is not strong. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week. The supply pressure is limited, and the export data of US corn is good. The wheat auction and China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn sales have had a certain impact on the domestic market, but the overall short - term pressure is not significant. It is recommended to buy on dips. For corn 2603, the support range is 2160 - 2170, and the pressure range is 2330 - 2350. For corn starch 03, the support range is 2430 - 2440, and the pressure range is 2630 - 2650. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended for option operations [5]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs rebounded with fluctuations over the weekend. The terminal consumption has improved month - on - month. The overall commodity market has stopped falling and rebounded in January, and the sentiment in the agricultural product sector has warmed up. Cautious investors can hold short - near - month and long - far - month reverse spreads, while aggressive investors can buy the 2607 contract when the price falls below the breeding cost and sell deep out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 15,000 to reduce the bottom - fishing cost [6]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs rose with fluctuations over the weekend. The egg price has rebounded after a seasonal decline since the fourth quarter. The terminal consumption is expected to increase month - on - month in January. The current egg price is relatively low, and the egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high. Aggressive investors can buy the 2605 contract on dips, and speculative short - selling should be cautious [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Different varieties in the feed, breeding, and oil industries have different market logics, support levels, pressure levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, soybean No. 1 05 is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see; soybean No. 2 05 is expected to be sold short on rebounds [10]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, main contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including soybeans, peanuts, oils, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [11][12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report presents the import cost data of oilseeds, including the arrival premium, CBOT soybean futures price, CNF arrival price, soybean import arrival duty - paid price, and soybean meal cost at zero profit for different shipping dates of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, as well as the relevant data for rapeseed and palm oil [12][13]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of oilseeds shows the inventory and operating rates of different varieties, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, and their corresponding operating rates [14]. 3.2.2 Feed - The report provides the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of starch enterprises, as well as the grain - selling progress of farmers [14]. 3.2.3 Breeding - **Pigs**: The report shows the key weekly data of the pig market, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and other indicators [15]. - **Eggs**: The report presents the key weekly data of the egg market, including supply - side indicators such as egg - laying rate, proportion of different egg sizes, and elimination of laying hens, as well as demand - side indicators and profit - related data [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Breeding End (Pigs and Eggs)**: The report includes charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of pigs and eggs, as well as the spot prices of pigs, piglets, and eggs [17][19][20]. - **Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: The report provides charts of Malaysia's palm oil monthly production, export volume, ending inventory, import profit, import volume, domestic inventory, daily trading volume, and price spreads [26][29]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, US soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, daily trading volume, and price spreads [31][33][36]. - **Peanuts**: The report presents charts of the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, peanut crushing profit, oil mill raw material procurement volume, peanut operating rate, peanut inventory, peanut oil inventory, peanut import volume, and price spreads [39][40][42]. - **Feed End** - **Corn**: The report includes charts of the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, port inventory, grain - selling progress, import volume, consumption, inventory, and processing profit of corn [44][45][46]. - **Corn Starch**: The report provides charts of the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, operating rate, inventory, and profit of corn starch [50][52][53]. - **Rapeseed**: The report presents charts of the spot price of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, basis, inventory, and pressing profit of rapeseed and rapeseed products [55][57][61]. - **Soybean Meal**: The report includes charts of the flowering rate and pod - setting rate of US soybeans, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal [65][68]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oil - The report provides charts of the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [70][71][72]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oil - The report presents charts of the warehouse receipt situation of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indexes [74][75][76].

Group 1 - The global MMA and acrylate market will face uneven demand, changing trade flows, and cautious procurement attitudes in 2026, despite signs of tightening supply in some regions [1] - In Europe, MMA demand is weak in Q1 2026, but the market is expected to tighten due to the closure of arbitrage opportunities from Asia, with local producers competing for contracts [1] - The average CIF price of MMA in Northwest Europe was €1297.18/ton in November 2025, nearing the offshore price from Asia, leading to a halt in imports [1] Group 2 - Middle Eastern low-cost MMA supplies are pressuring the European market, contributing to price declines, while the LiMA facility in Texas is ramping up production, potentially increasing U.S. exports to Europe [2] - The MMA export volume from the U.S. is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.46% over the next five years, positioning the U.S. as a net exporter [2] - In the acrylate market, buyers in Europe are securing attractive contract discounts, with a preference for long-term contracts to ensure stable supply [2] Group 3 - The U.S. MMA market's performance will heavily depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, as real estate demand constitutes 85% to 90% of MMA's end-use [3] - Despite maintenance at key facilities, U.S. MMA spot prices remained between 87 to 91 cents/lb in Q4 2025, with a modest demand increase of 1% to 2% expected in 2026 [3] - The U.S. acrylate market faces challenges, with weak downstream demand and complex trade flows due to tariff policies, leading to a shift towards Latin American sources [3] Group 4 - In Asia, MMA prices are expected to decline in 2026 due to weak demand and high inventories, with Chinese and Southeast Asian offshore prices continuing to fall [4] - India's BA market is undergoing structural changes with new domestic production capabilities, reducing reliance on imports and leading to the lowest prices since the pandemic [4] - The total BA production capacity in India is projected to reach 280,000 tons/year, meeting 70% to 75% of domestic demand, fundamentally altering market dynamics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic butadiene market in 2025 experienced fluctuations with a significant price drop compared to 2024, influenced by macroeconomic disturbances, new production capacities, high import volumes, and the performance of downstream synthetic futures [2][3][4][5][6] Group 1: Price Trends - In 2025, the average price of butadiene in Shandong was 9689 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 17.74%, with a high of 13150 yuan/ton and a low of 6800 yuan/ton [2] - The first quarter saw a strong price increase followed by a decline due to geopolitical factors and increased supply from the restart of certain production facilities [2] - The second quarter experienced significant price volatility, with a sharp drop in April due to U.S. tariffs and new production capacities coming online, followed by a recovery in May after positive trade talks between China and the U.S. [3] - In the third quarter, butadiene prices fluctuated widely, with tight supply in July leading to higher prices, but a subsequent easing of supply in August and September caused prices to decline [4] - The fourth quarter saw a "V"-shaped price trend, with prices hitting a low in November before recovering in December due to external market influences and improved demand from downstream synthetic rubber [5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side in 2026 is expected to be robust with new butadiene facilities coming online, including those from Zhongsha Gulei and Huajin Aramco, alongside continued production from facilities that started in late 2025 [6] - Demand may be affected by slowing growth in natural rubber production and ongoing global trade conflicts, which could hinder the improvement of terminal demand [6] - The potential for increased butadiene exports due to the planned exit of some overseas ethylene facilities and the possibility of domestic facilities shifting to lighter hydrocarbons should be monitored closely [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral. [4] Core Viewpoints - The macro - atmosphere is favorable, and attention should be paid to cost - side changes. The tense situation in Iran is supporting the rebound of oil prices. In the PX market, short - term supply is expected to increase, but the outlook for the second quarter of next year is good. For PTA, the short - term inventory situation is acceptable, and the processing fee is expected to improve in the long - term. The demand side of polyester is weakening, and different products in the polyester industry have different performance in terms of profit and inventory. [1][2][4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis. [10][13][15] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korea's xylene isomerization profit, and South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit. [20][24] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Cover toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit. [26][28] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia. [29][32][34] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Present PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt data of PTA, PX, and PF. [39][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Involve the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of different types of filaments, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. [49][51][59] PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber's operating rate, factory equity inventory days, production profit, and the operating rates and profits of related products such as pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn. [76][80][90] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Show polyester bottle - chip's operating rate, factory inventory days, processing fees (spot and export), export profit, and price spreads. [93][98][100]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [5] Core View of the Report - Caustic soda's short - term trend may be strong due to macro - sentiment, but the spot market faces the impact of low - price warehouse receipts, and without production cuts by manufacturers, a significant rebound is difficult. The market may have a short - term rebound under the influence of anti - involution sentiment, but the overall high - production and high - inventory pattern persists, with weak demand [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On January 7, 2026, the 03 - contract futures price was 2194, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 690, the price of Shandong's 32% caustic soda converted to the futures market was 2156, and the basis was - 38 [1] Spot News - On January 6, the caustic soda market price in Shandong was weakly stable. Some enterprises with high - priced products and poor sales reduced prices, high - concentration caustic soda orders were scarce, export prices were low, and the market price continued to decline [2] Market Condition Analysis - After the New Year's Day, the caustic soda 2601 contract dropped significantly due to a large number of 01 - contract warehouse receipts and high pressure on long - position holders to take delivery, leading to massive position - closing. The pressure on near - month contracts and continuous spot price cuts also caused other contracts to weaken. However, based on the delivery situation, the closing price of the 01 contract on Monday night was 1940 yuan/ton, and long - position holders would not lose money. This price was much lower than Shandong Weiqiao's purchase price, and the discount to the spot was sufficient to cover storage and transaction costs, so the short - term decline due to delivery factors would be limited [3] - Fundamentally, caustic soda remains in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. On the demand side, the oversupply of alumina has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production cuts suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. Non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand, and exports are under pressure, so overall demand lacks support. On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and with high operating rates, the supply pressure of caustic soda is large, and enterprises still face the pressure of reducing prices to clear inventory before the Spring Festival [3] - Overall, there is limited room for caustic soda to continue trading on the near - month delivery pressure. In the short term, driven by macro - sentiment, the trend may be strong. However, the spot market still faces the impact of low - price warehouse receipts. Without production cuts by manufacturers, caustic soda is unlikely to have an obvious rebound. Attention should also be paid to the shutdown of the Freeport chlor - alkali plant of Olin in the United States, which may have an impact on caustic soda exports [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global sugar market is in a state of oversupply, but concerns about a decline in Guangxi sugar production may support domestic sugar prices. Zheng sugar short - positions are advised to exit and wait and see [3]. - The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the cost of new warehouse receipts is rising, which is expected to drive up the bottom of the futures price. However, due to high inventory and weak paper mill profits, it is difficult to form a trending upward market in the short term. Short - term operations can consider long - positions at low levels in the range [3][4]. - The spot price of offset paper remains stable, and the futures price may fluctuate with the basis. As the basis narrows, the upward space of the futures price may be limited. Consider short - positions near the pressure level [5][6]. - The global cotton supply is abundant, and the domestic cotton market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term supply is sufficient, but there is a long - term support due to the expected decline in planting area. It is recommended to hold long - positions in the 05 contract cautiously [9]. - The apple 05 contract is facing a game between supply decline and the off - season of consumption, maintaining a high - level range expectation. It is recommended to adopt the idea of buying on dips [10]. - The market's expectation of a decline in jujube production has cooled, and the consumption season is approaching. Aggressive investors can consider short - term long - positions in the 2609 contract near 8900 - 9000 points [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2605**: Recommend buying on dips. The new - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak value have declined year - on - year, but the driving force for consumption growth is insufficient. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 10000 - 10200 [20]. - **Jujube 2605**: Recommend short - term long - positions at low levels. The expectation of production decline may be gradually reflected in the far - month contracts. The support range is 8500 - 8600, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [20]. - **Sugar 2605**: Recommend temporary waiting and seeing. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar - cane pressing season is underway. The market is worried about the decline in production and sugar - making rate this season, weakening short - position confidence. The support range is 5000 - 5030, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5330 [20]. - **Pulp 2605**: Recommend long - positions in the range. The futures price has risen above the price of the main physical delivery product, increasing potential delivery pressure. There is limited improvement in the fundamentals, but there is support below. The support range is 5300 - 5400, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5800 [20]. - **Offset Paper 2605**: Recommend temporary waiting and seeing. Raw material fluctuations affect the price of offset paper from the cost side, but the spot price is stable, and the futures price may operate within a range. The support range is 3900 - 4000, and the pressure range is 4200 - 4300 [20]. - **Cotton 2605**: Recommend holding long - positions cautiously. The external market is operating at a low level, the domestic market expectation is positive, and the long - term bullish expectation is strong. The futures price is expected to move up. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of apple cold storage in the main producing areas was 7.021 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons [21]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The price of late - maturing bagged Fuji in Shandong is stable, and the overall shipment has slightly increased. The price of bagged Fuji 65 - 70 in Qixia is 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per catty. The price in Shaanxi is also stable, and the trading volume of cold - storage merchants has increased. The price of bagged Fuji 70 in Luochuan is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty. The arrival volume in the sales area has slightly decreased, and the price is stable [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of one week before New Year's Day, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,898 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 37.17%. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market supply is increasing. The overall sales in the sales area are stable, showing a pattern of "overall stability and local dynamic adjustment" [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of December 31, 2025, the sugar - cane crushing volume in India was 133.921 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24%, and the sugar production was 11.83 million tons. From the beginning of the 2025/26 season to December 27, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Thailand was 14.0733 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.71%, and the sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.83%. As of December, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was 86,600 tons, and the sugar - making rate was 8.72%. India's domestic sugar sales quota in January 2026 was 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with January 2025 [27]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market In November 2025, the total import volume of pulp was 3.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The total export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp was 1.6206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. The export volume to China was 636,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% [29]. 3.2.5 Offset Paper Market The inventory days of offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand is still weak, and the inventory pressure has increased. The operating rate is 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points, and the increase rate expanded by 0.23 percentage points [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market The sowing progress in the Argentine cotton area has reached about 90%, and the final planting area is estimated to be between 380,000 and 430,000 hectares. The new - cotton planting progress in Brazil is about 25%, basically the same as the same period last year, and the final sown area is expected to be between 2.05 million and 2.1 million hectares. As of now this year, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, accounting for about 20% of the total estimated output [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9547 | 427 | 4.68% | | Jujube 2605 | 8955 | - 10 | - 0.11% | | Sugar 2605 | 5257 | 6 | 0.11% | | Pulp 2605 | 5530 | - 2 | - 0.04% | | Cotton 2605 | 14655 | 70 | 0.48% | [32] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan per catty) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan per kilogram) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan per ton) | 5330 | - 20 | - 710 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5580 | 0 | - 870 | | Offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan per ton) | 15615 | 30 | 888 | [39] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided, only figures are mentioned, such as the basis of Apple 5 - month contract, Jujube main contract, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Monthly Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Prediction | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1026 | - 30 | 1313 | Oscillating strongly | Buying on dips | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 45 | 145 | - 710 | Range - bound | Waiting and seeing | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 21 | 8 | - 39 | Oscillating | Waiting and seeing | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 190 | - 15 | - 25 | Oscillating weakly | Selling on rallies | [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific data summary provided, only figures about the top 20 long - positions, short - positions, trading volume, etc. of each variety are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 2102 | - 18 | 148 | | Sugar | 6005 | 823 | - 4775 | | Pulp | 115576 | 11089 | - 224540 | | Cotton | 6118 | 406 | 2531 | [83] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data No specific data summary provided, only figures about option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, etc. of apple, sugar, and cotton are mentioned.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a weak demand situation, with the disk under short - term pressure and mainly in a range - bound pattern. The iron ore market has support in the short - term but lacks the impetus to break through upwards. The coke and coking coal markets face fundamental pressure despite some expectations of stimulus policies. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are recommended to go long on dips [2][3][6][7] Summary by Related Categories Steel - The steel disk continued to decline today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased, and inventory continued to fall, but pressure remains. Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, and the blast furnace production reduction trend has slowed significantly. Iron water production has stabilized and rebounded in the short - term. Downstream real estate investment decline continued to expand, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall. Domestic demand is still weak, steel exports remain high, and the December PMI rose to 50.1, but its sustainability needs to be observed. The market sentiment is cautious, demand expectations are still weak, and the disk is under short - term pressure, mainly in a range - bound pattern [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore disk fluctuated today. On the supply side, the global shipment this period decreased month - on - month, slightly stronger than the same period last year, in line with seasonal change rules. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, but they are still relatively high year - on - year. The domestic arrival volume increased this period, and it is expected to remain high in the short - term, with port inventory continuing to accumulate. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and steel mill profitability has improved recently. Last week, iron water production increased month - on - month. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased continuously but is still at a low level, and there is still some rigid restocking demand in the future. The iron ore disk has short - term support, but the impetus to break through upwards is insufficient. The situation in Venezuela has a very limited impact on the direct supply and demand of iron ore, and future market trends need to be monitored. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuated downward during the day. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly decreased. Coke inventory has increased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing small quantities as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron water production is at a seasonal low, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel profits have slightly recovered, but the sentiment of squeezing raw material prices is still strong. The coke disk is at a premium, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. However, the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and capital games on the disk have intensified [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated downward during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. At the end of the year, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production due to safety production and the completion of annual production tasks. Spot auction transactions are okay, and the transaction price has increased slightly. Terminal inventory has increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory has increased slightly, and the production - end inventory has decreased slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron water production is at a seasonal low, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel profits have slightly recovered, but the sentiment of squeezing raw material prices is still strong. The coke disk is at a premium [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated weakly during the day. Driven by the rebound of the disk, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. Currently, there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the amount of oxidized ore decreases, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore increased last week. On the demand side, iron water production decreased seasonally. The weekly silicon manganese production decreased slightly, and the silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price fluctuated downward during the day. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there are certain expectations of a decline in electricity costs and blue - carbon prices. On the demand side, iron water production has rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand still has some resilience. Silicon iron supply has decreased significantly, and inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]