Summary of the Conference Call for 招商南油 Industry Overview - The international refined oil tanker market is experiencing a weak supply and demand situation due to multiple factors, including geopolitical risks and regulatory changes, which have increased market volatility [2][5] - The U.S. 301 investigation is gradually causing Chinese shipping companies to exit the U.S. market [2] - Despite a 4.5% year-on-year decline in refined oil shipping trade volume in the first half of the year, the MR market showed resilience in Q3, driven by strong gasoline demand in Asia-Pacific and the U.S. West Coast, along with a significant increase in China's export volume [2][5] - The VLCC and refined oil tanker markets have seen an upward trend since August, benefiting from increased refinery exports and delayed maintenance in Middle Eastern refineries [2][6] Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, 招商南油 reported revenue of 4.268 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.77% year-on-year, and a net profit of 947 million yuan, down 42.87% year-on-year [3] - Q3 revenue was 1.497 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 13.47% to 377 million yuan [3] - The gross profit from crude oil transportation increased by 6.9% to 513 million yuan, while the gross profit from refined oil transportation decreased by 48.5% to 575 million yuan [3] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The refined oil shipping market is expected to maintain a steady performance in Q4, supported by seasonal demand in the U.S. and increased exports from China [8] - The VLCC market's soaring freight rates are expected to drive up the refined oil tanker market [9] - For 2026, a slight growth in refined oil trade demand is anticipated, but increased new capacity and aging fleets may lead to higher scrapping rates [11] Operational Efficiency - The company's refined oil team operates at a significantly higher efficiency than market levels, outperforming regional indices and achieving better operational results [4][12] - The company has a fleet of 303 vessels and has successfully capitalized on market opportunities through scaled operations [12] Shareholder Returns and Financial Strategy - The company plans to utilize capital reserves to offset previous losses, aiming for improved shareholder returns through share buybacks and future profit distributions [13][14] - A total of 250 million yuan has been allocated for share repurchases, with plans to increase this to 400 million yuan [13] - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns and maintaining stable profitability and cash flow [15] Recommendations for Investors - Investors are encouraged to monitor the company's operational performance and improvements in shareholder returns, as it is positioned as a key player in the shipping sector [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Caustic Soda - In the short term, the supply of caustic soda is at a high level, the price of downstream alumina continues to weaken, industry profits are shrinking, and demand - side support is weak, resulting in insufficient support for market prices. In the medium term, as the demand procurement cycle approaches and downstream has restocking needs, caustic soda prices are expected to be supported. Considering the production schedule, there will be more alumina production in Q1 2026, so there may be concentrated stockpiling in Q4 2025, which may tighten spot liquidity. For non - aluminum sectors, after the National Day, as the previous non - aluminum inventory decreases, there may be purchasing willingness due to low prices. It is recommended to stop profiting on existing short positions and track downstream restocking rhythms [2]. PVC - This week, the PVC futures market stopped falling and stabilized, showing a volatile trend. On the supply side, there were still many maintenance enterprises this week, resulting in low production loads. However, it is expected that some maintenance enterprises will end maintenance next week, increasing production and bringing supply back to a high level. On the demand side, domestic downstream construction remains low, product orders are limited, and downstream continues to purchase on a need - to - basis at low prices. The cost of raw material calcium carbide has been rising, but the increase is limited, and the ethylene price may be lowered next week. The cost side provides bottom - level support. In the future, the logic of a lackluster peak season is expected to continue, the futures market will still face pressure, but the absolute price is already low, and a short - term operation strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda Price and Market Trends - The caustic soda futures price has shown significant fluctuations due to various factors such as macro - economic conditions, alumina price changes, and cost movements. For example, factors like the relaxation of Sino - US tariff conflicts, the strengthening of alumina profits, and the expectation of alumina production resumption have affected the spot - buying willingness and futures prices [6]. Supply - The weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 85.55%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from last week. The caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity was 82.53 tons, a 0.12% increase from last week. Although there were many chlor - alkali device maintenance activities, some enterprises with previously low loads increased their production. Multiple enterprises across different regions are in maintenance or have planned maintenance, with a total weekly maintenance loss of 6.92 tons [25][26]. Demand - Alumina is a major downstream consumer of caustic soda. From late 2025 to 2026, the planned alumina production capacity is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated alumina annual output in 2026 will exceed 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects are expected to increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June. In addition, the non - aluminum downstream sectors, such as the printing and dyeing industry, have a seasonal increase in the operating rate, while the viscose staple fiber industry has a decline in the operating rate [30][50]. Export - In September 2025, the export profit of caustic soda increased, and the export volume rebounded significantly. However, the estimated export profit declined in October [54]. PVC Price and Market Trends - The PVC futures price has fluctuated due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic sentiment, and cost changes. The spot price has been weakening [61][62]. Supply - This week, the overall operating load rate of PVC powder was 73.74%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 71.65%, a 3.08 - percentage - point decrease, and the operating load rate of ethylene - based PVC powder was 78.56%, a 2.46 - percentage - point increase. Many enterprises are in long - term, current, or planned maintenance, which affects the supply of PVC [83][85]. Demand - The two major downstream sectors of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing pressure from both demand and industry competition, and the industry's contribution is difficult to improve. The real - estate sector, with the goal of "reducing inventory and stabilizing prices," continues to have a negative impact on demand. According to sample data, downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [93]. Inventory - PVC inventory has been continuously increasing, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared to the same period [101]. Export and Import - In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 14,400 tons, with an average import price of $736 per ton, and the cumulative import from January to September was 175,500 tons. The single - month import volume increased by 16.08% month - on - month and 7.73% year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.76%. The export volume in September was 346,400 tons, with an average export price of $612 per ton, and the cumulative export from January to September was 2.9216 million tons. The single - month export volume increased by 21.945% month - on - month and 24.53% year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.63% [119].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 22, 2025 [4] - Report Title: Rubber, Methanol, Crude Oil - Daily Report - Report Author: Chen Dong from Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising. The price center moved up to around 15,100 yuan/ton. Benefiting from better-than-expected production and sales in the domestic auto market, the demand drive strengthened, which was conducive to the valuation repair of the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,276 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,257 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread discount widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic methanol market is still in a stage of oversupply and weak demand, and the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 remains in a weak state [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 448.1 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 434.0 yuan/barrel. As the previous macro - negative sentiment was "gradually digested, the short - term macro - drive was corrected, and the "bullish" atmosphere recovered. It is expected that the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures will maintain a stable and oscillating trend in the future [6]. " 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons or 4.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 1.70%, and the general trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decrease of 4.51%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 2.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.01 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.97 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.21 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises "was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' "capacity utilization rates" have recovered "to pre - holiday levels, and the overall shipment performance within the cycle varies [8]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index showed stable " "expansion. " In September, "China's automobile "production and sales" were " "3.276 million "and 3.226 million "units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and "12.9% respectively. In September 2025 " the sales volume of China's heavy - truck " "market was 105,00 " "units, a year - on - year increase of about "82% "and a month - on - month increase of 15%, " "ach "ieving " six consecutive months of growth [9]. " Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025 " "the average domestic "methanol " "operating rate "was maintained at 84.38%, a week - on - week "slight increase of 4 "%, a month - on - month " "significant increase of 4.99%, and a slight increase of 2.95% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly production of methanol in China reached 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - "week "slight decrease "of 49,3 " "tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 64,400 tons, and a significant increase of 118,600 tons compared with "1.86 "51 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.95%, a week - on - week slight decrease of "0.03%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 6.68%, a week - on - week slight decrease of "1.52%. The operating rate " "of acetic acid was "maintained at 71.61%, a week - on - week significant "decline of 10.04%. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 54.89%, a week - on - week slight "de " " "crease of 3%. As of the week of " "October 17, 2025, the " "average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin " " "plants was " "88.36%, a week - on - week slight " " "increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month slight increase of 5.48 "%. As of October 17, 2025, the futures " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " 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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for various agricultural products, including "Oscillation" for oils and fats, protein meals, corn and starch, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, and double - glue paper; "Oscillation Weakly" for sugar, paper pulp, and live pigs; and "Oscillation Strongly" for logs [1][5][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][18]. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of multiple agricultural products. For example, the price of natural rubber rebounds due to low valuation and bottom - position position - increasing; the inventory of Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate as Brazilian soybean planting progresses smoothly; the price of live pigs rebounds in the short - term but remains under supply pressure in the long - term [1][5][8]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory. The market is affected by factors such as the US government shutdown, trade negotiations, and production expectations. The outlook is for oil prices to oscillate [5]. - **Protein Meals**: With the increasing expectation of Sino - US relations easing, double - meal prices are under pressure in the low - level oscillation. The market is influenced by factors such as international soybean prices, import volume, and downstream demand. The outlook is for bean meal and rapeseed meal to oscillate [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The port inventory has slightly increased, and the spot price increase has slowed down. The market is affected by factors such as production expectations, weather, and demand. The outlook is for corn prices to oscillate [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: Second - fattening continues to enter the market, and pig prices rebound in stages. However, the supply pressure remains. The market is affected by factors such as production capacity, demand, and inventory. The outlook is for pig prices to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The valuation is low, and the rubber price rebounds with increasing positions at the bottom. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - factors. The outlook is for rubber prices to oscillate and seek the bottom [1][9][10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows the rise of natural rubber. However, due to high production and inventory, the outlook is for the price to oscillate and grind the bottom, with the possibility of hitting a new low this year [11][12]. - **Cotton**: The increase in the purchase price raises the cost, and the cotton price continues to rebound. The market is affected by factors such as production expectations and purchase prices. The outlook is for cotton prices to oscillate within a range and be slightly stronger this week [12][13]. - **Sugar**: In the medium - and long - term, the driving force is downward, and the sugar price oscillates weakly. The market is affected by factors such as global supply and demand and production expectations. The outlook is for sugar prices to oscillate weakly [13]. - **Paper Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the paper pulp price runs at a low level. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - factors. The outlook is for paper pulp prices to oscillate weakly [13][15]. - **Double - Glue Paper**: It is the tender season, and the price of double - glue paper stabilizes. The market is affected by factors such as production, demand, and cost. The outlook is for the price to oscillate [16][17]. - **Logs**: Logs oscillate strongly. The market is affected by factors such as port fees, supply and demand, and inventory. The outlook is to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low positions for the 01 contract in the future weeks [18]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, corn and starch, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, paper pulp and double - glue paper, and logs [20][51][110][123][138][161]. 3. Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards, including "Strong", "Oscillation Strongly", "Oscillation", "Oscillation Weakly", "Weakly", and the corresponding expected price changes and time periods [173].

黑色建材日报 2025-10-22 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3047 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 2 元/吨（0.065%）。当日注册仓单 129796 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 199.5833 万手，环比减少 10093 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3110 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3219 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.124%）。 当日注册仓单 113657 吨, 环比减少 2375 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, most products are expected to be in a state of "oscillation" or "oscillation on the weak side," suggesting a relatively cautious view of the energy and chemical industry [3][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's Q3 economic data is strong, but the weakness in the energy and chemical sector mainly stems from the supply side. The good economic data provides some support to the crude oil market, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [1]. - The export of chemical products in September generally maintained a good trend, with polyester products performing particularly well. Expanding overseas markets may be the future hope for the chemical industry [2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical industry is still anchored by crude oil and is expected to continue its weak oscillation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Macroeconomic Situation - China's Q3 GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the GDP growth rate from January to September was 5.2%. In September, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% year - on - year. The demand for petroleum in September increased by 6% year - on - year, continuing the positive year - on - year growth since June [1]. - The President of Ukraine stated that the Russia - Ukraine conflict will not end soon, but the pre - conditions for peace have emerged. Russia's oil transportation to India continues [8]. 3.2 Product - Specific Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Macroeconomic factors disrupt the rhythm, and the fundamentals are continuously under pressure. - **Main Logic**: Supply is in an increasing phase dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC+ production. Later, there will be pressure on accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation due to the peak and decline of refinery operations. Although China's inventory has decreased recently, overseas and sea - borne inventories have increased, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still being realized. The fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and macro - risks are fluctuating. Oil prices are expected to continue their weak oscillation. If concerns about tariffs ease or there are temporary geopolitical risks, oil prices may rebound but the downward trend is difficult to reverse [8]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price is testing the 3200 resistance level. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export discount to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled, the geopolitical premium has declined, and the positive impact of China - US negotiations remains. In the short term, crude oil has entered an oscillation mode, and asphalt futures prices will follow the oscillation of crude oil. The asphalt spot price has been continuously falling, the asphalt - fuel oil price difference is expected to continue to decline, the asphalt production plan in October has increased by 19% year - on - year, the supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the driving force supporting the high premium of asphalt has significantly weakened. The pricing power of asphalt futures is expected to return to Shandong. Under the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the pressure on asphalt inventory accumulation is still high. Currently, asphalt is still overvalued compared to crude oil, rebar, low - sulfur fuel oil, and high - sulfur fuel oil, and the overvalued premium is starting to decline [9]. 3.2.3 Fuel Oil - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Viewpoint**: The fuel oil futures price has entered an oscillation mode. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export discount to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled. Among the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil (the Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and the Palestine - Israel conflict), the Palestine - Israel conflict and the Russia - US call have a negative impact on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the short term, the fuel oil futures price will follow the oscillation of crude oil. As refinery operations increase, the demand for fuel oil processing by refineries gradually increases, but the demand for gasoline in the US is weak, the demand for residue processing is sluggish, and the peak power - generation season in the Middle East is coming to an end, so the demand for fuel oil is still weak [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has declined following crude oil, and the 3500 resistance level is effective in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and substitution by high - sulfur fuel oil. It is undervalued and is expected to follow the movement of crude oil. Fundamentally, the reduction of export tax rebates for refined oil products in China and the cancellation of export tax rebates for UCO have increased the supply pressure of refined oil products in China. The pressure to reduce oil and increase chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, which is facing a trend of increased supply and decreased demand and may maintain a low - valuation operation [11]. 3.2.4 Chemical Products - **PX** - **Viewpoint**: Cost drags down the absolute price, but the processing margin has been repaired due to the improvement in supply - demand on a month - on - month basis. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are generally oscillating weakly, and the cost support is weak. There is no obvious positive support from its own supply - demand, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited. The import volume of PX in September remained stable with narrow fluctuations. Under the situation of strong supply and demand of PX, and with the expected commissioning of PTA, there is some support for downstream demand, and the downward space for the processing margin is limited [12]. - **PTA** - **Viewpoint**: Under the expectation of new plant commissioning and restart, both the basis and the processing margin are under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost support is average, the atmosphere in the chemical product market is cold, and PTA follows the cost to oscillate and decline. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is stable. The new Fengming plant is about to be commissioned, so there is some supply pressure. The downstream polyester demand is stable, and there is more speculative replenishment at low prices. Polyester factories have enough space to offer promotions after profit repair, and the sales volume has increased slightly. The overall price mainly fluctuates following the upstream and macro - economic sentiment [12]. - **Short - Fiber** - **Viewpoint**: After the profit improvement, there is more room for profit to promote sales, the inventory has decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the support for the low processing margin has increased. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is not good, and the short - fiber price has declined following the cost. In terms of the supply - demand pattern, short - fiber is still generally stronger than the upstream. There is still support at the low processing margin. After the weather turns cold, orders are being placed smoothly, and the export data is strong. There is no expectation of inventory accumulation in the short - fiber industry in the short term, and there is support for demand at the end of the peak season [21]. - **Bottle Chips** - **Viewpoint**: There is not much positive support from the fundamentals, and the low price stimulates the increase in speculative replenishment demand. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is average, and the bottle - chip price has declined following the cost. The spot processing margin has slightly decreased. The export data of polyester bottle chips in September was average, showing a decline compared to August. The demand is in the off - season, and there is no obvious driving force for supply - demand [22]. - **Styrene** - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is weak and inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene resumes its downward trend. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment for pure benzene in the future is still pessimistic. With styrene's own profit at a low level, the number of maintenance operations has increased, and the supply - demand situation has slightly improved. However, the biggest current pressure is the high port inventory. As the end - of - year seasonal inventory accumulation period approaches, the concern about over - inventory persists, dragging down the performance of the industrial chain prices [17]. - **Methanol** - **Viewpoint**: The coal end provides slight support, and methanol is expected to oscillate widely. - **Main Logic**: On October 20, the methanol futures price oscillated and may continue in the short term. The production enterprises are offering discounts to sell, and the downstream purchases on demand. The price is weakly declining. The port inventory of methanol is still at a relatively high level, but considering the high probability of disturbances from Iran approaching winter, methanol still has value for long - position investment at low prices. However, it is restricted by the overall weak sentiment in the energy and chemical industry, and the weakness of downstream olefins also limits the upward space of methanol. Therefore, it is advisable to view it as oscillating in the short term [26]. - **Urea** - **Viewpoint**: The price support of individual spot goods has weakened, and the urea futures price is continuously under pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 20, the mainstream spot prices of urea in Shandong and Hebei declined, and the downstream's follow - up purchases were cautious. Fundamentally, both supply and demand have weakened to a certain extent. The operation rate is at a relatively low level, and the agricultural demand has not improved. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and there is no effective positive support, so the futures price shows a narrow - range oscillation [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)** - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of substantial positive factors, and it is in a low - level range adjustment without fundamental driving forces. - **Main Logic**: The overall atmosphere in the chemical product market is cold, and ethylene glycol oscillates and declines. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is stable. The operation rate of ethylene glycol is at a high level, and multiple integrated plants have restarted. Although there will be maintenance operations at Shell and Fulian plants later, they are all short - term shutdowns with limited impact. The port inventory continues to accumulate gradually, and the price is still under pressure under the expectation of weakening supply - demand [18]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)** - **Viewpoint**: The oil price is still weak, and plastic oscillates on the weak side. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is still weak, the fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and the macro - economic expectation is constantly fluctuating. The indication of the oil price is still pessimistic. The oil price has a limited impact on the expected US production next year, and it is still in the downward - seeking bottom stage. If there are positive macro - economic and geopolitical factors, it will rebound, but the downward trend is difficult to reverse. The fundamental support for plastic itself is still limited. It is now in the second half of the "Golden September and Silver October" period. As the peak season fades, the upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will suppress the upward space of the price. The profit support is limited. The profit of oil - based refineries is stable under the weak oil price, the coal - based profit has slightly declined, and the profit of gas - based ethane is still good. In the short term, the futures price has slightly stabilized near the previous low, and the support strength should be monitored [31]. - **PP** - **Viewpoint**: The weakness of the oil price continues, and PP oscillates on the weak side. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates weakly, the fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and the macro - economic expectation is constantly fluctuating. The indication of the oil price is still pessimistic. The oil price has a limited impact on the expected US production next year, and it is still in the downward - seeking bottom stage. If there are positive macro - economic and geopolitical factors, it will rebound, but the downward trend is difficult to reverse. The fundamental support for PP itself is still limited. Currently, the production continues to increase year - on - year, but the demand support is limited, and the high - level inventory will still suppress the price performance. The profit support is limited. The profit of oil - based refineries is stable under the weak oil price, the coal - based profit has slightly declined, and the profit of gas - based ethane is still good. PP has slightly stabilized near 6600, and the focus of subsequent attention is the change in maintenance operations [32]. - **PVC** - **Viewpoint**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the disturbance of China - US tariffs has resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the negotiations between the two sides at the APEC meeting. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, and the cost is stable. Specifically, the autumn maintenance of upstream plants increased in mid - October, so the PVC production will decline; the downstream operation has recovered stage by stage, and only the low - price purchases have increased; the export order signing of PVC has improved; the operation rate of calcium carbide has decreased, and the number of PVC maintenance operations has increased, so the calcium carbide price is weakly stable; there coexist the marginal production reduction of alumina plants and the stockpiling for new plant commissioning, and the caustic soda spot may fluctuate narrowly. The static cost of PVC is 5190 yuan/ton, and the dynamic cost is expected to remain stable [35]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the disturbance of China - US tariffs has resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the negotiations between the two sides at the APEC meeting. At the micro - level, the medium - and long - term demand growth for caustic soda may be limited, and the production may also increase. The spot price may oscillate narrowly, manifested as: the alumina market remains in surplus, and the industry profit is poor. Recently, marginal plants have started to reduce production; the procurement by Wenfeng has relieved the pressure on 32% caustic soda in Shandong, but the caustic soda receipt volume of Weiqiao is equal to its daily consumption, and the caustic soda inventory of Weiqiao is high; the commissioning of a 4.8 - million - ton alumina plant in Guangxi in 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, and some factories have issued caustic soda procurement tenders; the non - aluminum operation rate is stable, and the replenishment intention is not high, and the operation rate will decline from November to December; the production of caustic soda in late October is not high, and the production will increase after the end of maintenance and new plant commissioning in the future [36]. 3.3 Product Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., along with their changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are presented, as well as their changes [39]. - **Inter - product Spread**: The inter - product spreads between different products such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., are given, along with their changes [41].

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber market is experiencing downward pressure due to concerns over potential tariffs in the U.S. and a bearish outlook on supply and demand fundamentals, although there are expectations of potential positive macroeconomic developments from upcoming meetings between U.S. and Chinese leaders [1][3]. Market Overview - This week, the prices of styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (BR) have shown a downward trend, influenced by tariff concerns and a bearish supply-demand outlook. Despite some speculative demand due to lower prices, the overall market remains under pressure [1][5]. - The average price of natural rubber (NR) has decreased by 2.91% compared to last week, while the average price of butadiene has dropped by 1.03% [1]. - SBR prices fell by 2.99% and BR prices decreased by 1.57% compared to the previous week, reflecting a downward shift in market sentiment [1][5]. Macroeconomic Factors - There has been no official announcement regarding tariff issues from overseas, leading to a lack of clarity in the market. Domestically, there is a strong stance on rare earth controls and shipping fees, with limited other relevant news [3]. - Anticipation of meetings between U.S. and Chinese leaders at the end of October may create a positive sentiment regarding policy and tariff easing [3]. Natural Rubber Market - The futures prices of natural rubber have declined, causing the spot market prices to follow suit. The initial drop in prices led to increased purchasing activity from factories, providing some support at lower price levels [3][5]. - However, as rubber prices rebounded, purchasing enthusiasm from downstream buyers has cooled, leading to a more subdued trading environment [3]. Synthetic Rubber Supply and Demand - The price of butadiene has slightly decreased, which negatively impacts the synthetic rubber market. Most production facilities, except for a few undergoing maintenance, are operating at high capacity, maintaining pressure on overall supply [5]. - Downstream tire manufacturers are gradually resuming operations post-holiday, but low raw material inventories provide some support for bottom prices. However, seasonal weakness in overseas orders is limiting demand, further pressuring synthetic rubber prices [5]. Price Outlook - The outlook for SBR and BR prices next week is expected to be characterized by strong fluctuations due to two main factors: potential positive macroeconomic developments and increased speculative demand supporting the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, surpassing $50 per ounce, is primarily driven by a liquidity crisis in the London silver market, leading to increased demand and speculation [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current spike in silver prices is attributed to a temporary "money shortage" in the London silver market, akin to a sudden shortage of goods in a market, causing prices to rise [3] - High demand for silver is attracting supplies from the U.S. and other regions back to London, which may stabilize prices once liquidity is restored [3] Group 2: Comparison with Gold - Unlike gold, which has strong backing from central banks and stable demand, silver relies heavily on market supply and speculative sentiment, making it more volatile [3] - The volatility of silver is expected to be greater than that of gold, with higher risks of price declines [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are cautioned against chasing the current silver price surge, as it may lead to potential corrections once market conditions normalize [3] - A focus on the underlying supply and demand fundamentals is recommended rather than engaging in short-term speculative trading [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with limited orders and expectations of futures listings contributing to a wait-and-see attitude among participants [1][2] - Downstream printing factories are experiencing average order volumes, with some manufacturers in South China facing temporary shutdowns due to weather, leading to slower consumption of raw paper [2][3] Group 2: Cultural Paper - As of September 28, the market average price for 70g wood pulp high white double glue paper is 4807 RMB/ton, down 137 RMB/ton or 2.77% month-on-month [2] - The resumption of production lines in Shandong has increased market supply pressure, causing some distributors to lower their order prices [2] Group 3: White Cardboard - As of September 28, the market average price for 250-400g flat white cardboard is 3960 RMB/ton, up 0.35% from August but down 8.08% year-on-year [3] - Cost pressures remain high, with paper mills raising prices by 100 RMB/ton, which has a positive upward impact on the market [3] Group 4: Corrugated Paper - As of September 28, the market average price for AA-grade corrugated paper (120g) is 2777 RMB/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 5.27% and a year-on-year increase of 6.97% [4] - Major paper mills continue to raise factory prices and have announced shutdown plans for the National Day holiday, leading to a shift in market transaction focus [4] Group 5: Wood Pulp - The average price of imported wood pulp in September showed a downward trend, with only broadleaf pulp prices slightly increasing [5] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main contract price for wood pulp has been fluctuating downwards, impacting the average price of imported needle wood pulp [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is facing shrinking profit margins and falling prices due to high costs and low steel prices, with an expected increase in steel production cuts [1]. - The iron ore market is weak, with prices oscillating downward. The expected increase in long - term supply and the rising number of loss - making steel mills are factors to watch [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is experiencing weakening demand expectations, with prices oscillating. The supply and demand dynamics of both are affected by factors such as steel mill profits and production levels [5][6]. - The thermal coal market has seen a short - term price increase due to demand boost, but the long - term supply remains loose [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures main contract closed at 3034 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3212 yuan/ton. The spot steel trading volume was average, with the national building materials trading volume at 9.14 tons, a daily decrease of 3.37% and a weekly decrease of 23.79% [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Steel supply is driven by fundamentals. High costs and falling steel prices have squeezed profit margins, and some steel mills' rebar businesses are in the red. High production and inventory levels have increased the expectation of production cuts [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect prices to oscillate weakly [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price weakened. The main 2601 contract closed at 776.5 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. The spot price in Tangshan ports declined, and trading volume was down 33.08% to 124.4 tons. The forward - looking spot trading volume increased by 90.65% to 173.5 tons [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week, iron ore arrivals increased, iron - water production remained high, and port inventory rose slightly. Due to the high probability of increased long - term supply and high price valuations, attention should be paid to the negative impact of steel mill profit changes and steel production cuts [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect prices to oscillate weakly [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures main contracts oscillated. The coal price in the main production areas continued to rise, and some terminal demand for restocking was released. The import market was strong [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Coking enterprise profits are near the break - even point. High iron - water production provides short - term support for coke prices, but the demand outlook is weak. After the holiday, coking coal production has recovered, and demand remains resilient [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices continued to rise due to increased demand from metallurgical and chemical industries, restocking demand, and rising prices from large groups. In ports, the market sentiment was positive, and prices increased. The import market was stable to strong, and prices were more competitive [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Short - term prices will oscillate due to demand boost, but the long - term supply is abundant. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. - **Strategy**: Not provided [8]