Core Insights - The report emphasizes that risk appetite is driving asset performance, with a focus on style rotation in equities [2][3] - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, particularly in the context of A-shares, with a notable emphasis on mid-cap blue chips [7][10] - The report suggests a cautious short-term outlook for gold, while maintaining a positive medium-term perspective [7][10] Asset Allocation Strategy - The strategy recommends increasing allocations to A-shares, Chinese bonds, and US stocks, with specific adjustments based on volatility strategies [25][52] - For low-volatility strategies, a slight increase in A-shares and US stocks is advised, while medium-volatility strategies suggest increasing A-shares and Chinese bonds, and reducing gold exposure [37][54] - The report highlights the performance of dynamic all-weather strategies, which have shown annualized returns of 6.0% since 2025 [58] Industry Rotation Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, military, communications, and electronics for February [39][44] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks, achieving an annualized return of 45.3% since 2025 [41][42] - Two approaches for industry selection are discussed: maintaining previous top sectors for stability and capturing the best-performing sectors for responsiveness [44][50] ETF Strategy - The ETF strategy aligns with the industry rotation and asset allocation strategies, recommending ETFs in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, military, communications, and information technology [46][51] - The performance of the ETF industry strategy has also outperformed benchmarks, with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025 [48][49] - The report outlines two methods for ETF selection, balancing stability and responsiveness to market signals [50][51]

Group 1 - The chief economist of Zheshang Securities, Li Chao, emphasizes the necessity of maintaining an active fiscal policy with a certain level of deficit for 2026 [1] - Li Chao indicates that a moderately loose monetary policy will likely continue, with potential interest rate cuts still on the table [1] - The focus for 2026 should shift towards the importance of consumption as a key counter-cyclical variable, contrasting with the past where real estate was the main counter-cyclical factor [1] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market in 2026 should not overly focus on interest rates but rather on risk appetite, suggesting that a sustained optimistic market sentiment could lead to a prolonged "slow bull" market through valuation increases [1]

Group 1 - The core observation is that the market is experiencing a "risk transfer" day, with gold and silver rebounding while U.S. stocks and Bitcoin are declining, indicating a significant underlying shift in market sentiment [2][3] - The software sector is identified as a major area of concern, with a nearly 4% drop in one day, reflecting a crowded trade that is now facing a structural issue rather than a change in market outlook [3] - Bitcoin's decline is attributed to its role as a pure expression of risk appetite, suggesting that it often leads declines in other assets [3] Group 2 - Gold and silver are rising but doing so hesitantly, indicating that the current price movements are more of a technical recovery rather than the start of a new bullish trend [4] - The stability of the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields suggests that the market is still in a phase of reducing positions rather than making definitive conclusions about future movements [4] - The current market environment is characterized as one that tests risk tolerance rather than delivering a sudden market shock, reminiscent of conditions seen in 2018 [5]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a collective decline, with the Nasdaq falling by 1.43%, the S&P 500 down by 0.83%, and the Dow Jones decreasing by 0.34% [2] - Major technology stocks saw significant drops, with Nvidia and Microsoft each falling nearly 3%, and Micron Technology dropping over 4% [2] - The cryptocurrency market also faced a downturn, with Bitcoin dropping as much as 7% to below $73,000, and a total of over $7 billion in liquidations occurring within 24 hours [4][5] Technology Sector - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang denied rumors of a strained relationship with OpenAI, affirming that their investment plans are proceeding as scheduled and that Nvidia will participate in OpenAI's next funding round, which he described as the largest private financing in history [2] - The overall sentiment in the technology sector is shifting, with risk appetite decreasing and a notable sell-off in previously popular trades [3] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin's price has been on a downward trend for nearly four months, with a year-to-date decline of nearly 14% [4] - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant drop in sentiment, with traders seeking protection as volatility increases, indicating a bear market phase [6] - The total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market reached over $7.41 billion, with approximately 169,800 traders affected [4][5] Economic Indicators - The US labor market report, originally scheduled for release, has been delayed due to government funding issues, contributing to market uncertainty [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is currently at 8.9%, with a 91.1% chance of maintaining rates [3]

Group 1 - Recent sharp decline in precious metals has spread panic to the non-ferrous metals sector, with Shanghai tin futures dropping over 12% at one point, and closing down 6.7% at 383,340 yuan/ton [1] - The catalyst for this decline was the nomination of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the Federal Reserve chair, raising concerns about tightening monetary policy and a stronger dollar, which dampened risk appetite [1] - Domestic refined tin production in January met expectations with little month-on-month change, but production is constrained by raw material shortages, particularly in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces [1] Group 2 - Demand is showing structural differentiation, with traditional sectors like consumer electronics and tinplate performing poorly, while emerging sectors such as lightweight components for electric vehicles and solder for AI servers provide medium to long-term support for tin prices [2] - The overall operating rate of downstream processing enterprises remains stable, with no significant fluctuations observed [2] - The market is transitioning from a "tight supply expectation" to a "supply-demand rebalancing," which may suppress the upward price elasticity, despite expectations of marginal improvement in tin ore supply [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market sentiment is weak. Risk - asset market sentiment has declined sharply, and the A - share market is under pressure. The bond market shows a differentiated trend, with ultra - long bonds being relatively strong. Precious metals have erased last month's gains, and various commodity markets are facing different degrees of pressure or fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Category Equity Indexes - Affected by the commodity sector, the risk - asset market sentiment has dropped rapidly, and the risk preference has significantly decreased. The A - share market has declined under pressure. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, wait for stabilization, and hold bilateral call options [2]. Treasury Bonds - The decline in the equity and commodity markets has raised concerns about the redemption of fixed - income + product net values, making the bond market cautious. The medium - and short - term bonds are oscillating and slightly retracting, while the ultra - long - term bonds are supported by the decline in risk preference. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield faces significant resistance around 1.8% and may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.85% in the short term. The T2603 contract may oscillate in the range of 108 - 108.3. It is recommended to maintain range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy, pay attention to flattening for the curve strategy, and arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival [2]. Precious Metals - After the large - scale decline in the "leveraged funds" market, precious metals have erased last month's gains. The silver price may fluctuate greatly in the range of 70 - 110 US dollars. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before allocating and buying at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options for gold. A light - position long position in the gold - silver ratio arbitrage can be considered. Platinum and palladium prices will enter a consolidation phase and should be temporarily observed [2]. Shipping - The EC futures price is oscillating downward, with a cautious and bearish outlook [2]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: After the steel mills' restocking is realized, the ore price is under pressure. It is advisable to short at around 800 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in Shanxi has loosened, and the Mongolian coal follows the futures price fluctuations. The futures price is oscillating downward. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Coke**: The price increase of mainstream coke enterprises has been implemented, and the port trading price is stable. The futures price is oscillating downward. It is advisable to view it as oscillating and slightly strong, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800, and go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Silicon Ferros**: There is no significant contradiction between supply and demand, and attention should be paid to HeSteel's February pricing. It will oscillate widely in the range of 5500 - 5900 [2]. - **Manganese Silicos**: Affected by macro - sentiment, it is operating weakly, with a wide - range oscillation in the range of 5600 - 6000 [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to the expectation of balance - sheet reduction and the pressure on risk preference, the copper price has retreated from its high level. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Frequent maintenance of alumina plants at the end of the year has led to a strong and oscillating futures price. The short - term decline in the ore price is limited. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options at the lower price limit and short unilaterally at high prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: After the concentrated profit - taking of long - position funds, the futures price has reached the limit - down. It is advisable to pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23500 and go long on dips [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price has adjusted following the limit - down of the aluminum price. It is advisable to refer to the operation range of 21500 - 23500 and conduct an arbitrage of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has retreated from its high level, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is advisable to pay attention to the support around 24000, wait and see in the short term, and go long at low prices in the long term [2]. - **Tin**: Due to the decline of US technology stocks and the increasing expectation of Fed tightening, the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors have significantly declined, and the tin price has reached the limit - down. It is recommended to participate cautiously in the short term and try a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [2]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has weakened significantly, and the nickel price has dropped sharply during the day. It is advisable to conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range for the main contract of 128000 - 140000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: Under the pressure of the macro and raw material sides, the futures price has dropped sharply during the day. It will adjust weakly, with a reference range for the main contract of 13200 - 14500 [2]. New Energy Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rose in the morning under the influence of production cuts and then declined in the afternoon. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 8200 - 9200 [2]. - **Polysilicon**: After a large - scale decline, the polysilicon futures price has rebounded. It is oscillating at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Under macro - pressure and with the exhaustion of positive factors, the futures price has significantly declined and adjusted. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously, as the risk of going long against the trend is relatively high [2]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Due to the collapse of the cost side, PX is oscillating weakly in the short term, with a short - term oscillation range of 7200 - 7600, and short - term long - position operations are recommended [2]. - **PTA**: Under the expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, the driving force before the festival is limited. PTA is oscillating at a high level in the short term, with a short - term oscillation range of 5200 - 5500. Short - term long - position operations and low - level positive arbitrage of TA5 - 9 are recommended [2]. - **Short - fiber**: With a weak supply - demand expectation, it follows the raw material price fluctuations. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA, and it is advisable to shrink the processing fee on the futures price when it is high [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The operating rate of bottle - grade PET plants has increased in February, and it is expected that the plants will accumulate inventory seasonally, suppressing the increase of the processing fee. The unilateral operation of PR is the same as that of PTA. The main - contract processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 400 - 550 yuan/ton. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of shrinking the processing fee when it is high and sell the put option PR2604 - P - 5900 when the price is high [2]. - **Ethanol (EG)**: In February, MEG faces significant inventory - accumulation pressure, with a near - term weak and long - term strong supply - demand situation. The EG2605 price is under pressure above, oscillating in the range of 3700 - 4100. It is advisable to pay attention to the low - level positive arbitrage opportunity of EG5 - 9 and sell the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 when the price is high [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has improved slightly, but the driving force is limited under the suppression of high inventory. It follows the price fluctuations of raw materials and downstream styrene. It should be treated with caution and bearishness, and the EB - BZ spread should be shrunk when it is high [2]. - **Styrene**: Under the expectation of high valuation and weak supply - demand, the price is under pressure. It should be treated with caution and bearishness, and the EB - BZ spread should be shrunk when it is high [2]. - **LLDPE**: The trading volume is weak, mainly for hedging purchases. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **PP**: With weak supply and demand, the price is oscillating. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Methanol**: After the geopolitical situation eases, the price has dropped significantly, and the basis has slightly strengthened. The previous long - position orders have been stopped for profit [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals have not improved, and it is mainly adjusting weakly and stably. A high - short strategy on rebounds is recommended [2]. - **PVC**: With weak demand support, the futures price has declined. PVC may enter a wide - range oscillation, and a short - term low - buying strategy is recommended, while short - position orders should be temporarily observed [2]. - **Urea**: The market trading atmosphere has weakened, and new orders are slow to follow up. The short - term supply - demand improvement expectation is good, but the upward momentum may be insufficient. Short - position orders should be temporarily observed [2]. - **Soda Ash**: With a strong supply and weak demand, it is oscillating in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the changes in production lines and inventory [2]. - **Glass**: It is mainly oscillating in a weak supply - demand balance. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Natural Rubber**: The sharp decline in commodities has dragged down the rubber price. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The sharp decline in commodities has dragged down the BR price. Attention should be paid to the support of BR2604 around 12500 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply is abundant throughout the February market. Short - position orders can be held, paying attention to changes in macro - sentiment [2]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term boost from reduced supply, and the supply - demand game before the festival intensifies. It is oscillating at the bottom [2]. - **Corn**: With an increase in supply, the futures price has declined. It will oscillate in the range of 2250 - 2320 [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by macro - capital sentiment and the weakening of crude oil, the vegetable oil sector has generally declined. It is oscillating weakly in a range [2]. - **Sugar**: Due to the lack of fundamental news, it is affected by the overall macro - sentiment. It is oscillating weakly in a range [2]. - **Cotton**: Supported by the firm spot price, the price adjustment space is limited. Long - position orders can be held [2]. - **Eggs**: The egg price has weakened and turned down, and the stocking is coming to an end. It is oscillating in a range [2]. - **Apples**: As the commodity market sentiment cools down, the futures price is oscillating and falling. Long - position orders should be closed at an appropriate time [2]. - **Concentrated Juice**: The sales progress is slow, and the futures price is oscillating and falling. It will oscillate in the range of 8700 - 9200 [2]. Steel - Affected by the weak market sentiment, the steel price has declined, and it will move in the range of 3150 - 3350. The long position in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread can continue to be held [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market in February 2026 may continue to fluctuate, with neither bulls nor bears having a dominant position. The convergence of market risk appetite and weakening fundamental data may drive interest rates down, while the concentrated supply of government bonds at the beginning of February, potential capital fluctuations before the Spring Festival, and uncertainty in inflation repair may act as resistance to interest rate declines [2][63]. - Currently, institutional strategies are consistently biased towards risk aversion, with the duration of interest - rate bond funds at a low level since 2025. The coupon - bearing sector is relatively crowded, while various spreads within interest - rate bonds may provide opportunities for excess returns [6][63]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 January Bond Market: High - Open and Low - Close - The long - end interest rates in the bond market in January experienced an unexpected high - open and low - close trend. Supply - demand changes, risk appetite adjustment, institutional behavior, and tax - period disturbances were the main influencing factors. The 10 - year Treasury yield started at 1.85%, reached a high of 1.90% at the beginning of the month, and ended at 1.81% at the end of the month [1][11]. - From a structural perspective, asset management institutions preferred coupon - bearing assets such as 3 - 5 - year medium - and long - term credit bonds and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds to lay a foundation for high static yields at the beginning of the year [1][20]. - In January, the interest - rate pricing logic changed. The negative impact of potential changes in bond - fund regulation dissipated, while the bullish logic of the supply - demand mismatch of government bonds emerged. The suppression of the bond market by the equity market also eased [1][24]. 3.2 February Bond Market: Four Key Lines 3.2.1 Supply - Demand Structure - In January, the actual net supply of government bonds was 1.18 trillion yuan, lower than the expected 1.35 - 1.37 trillion yuan. The main reason was that five provinces and cities that originally planned to issue local bonds in January did not issue them, with a cumulative scale of 1858 billion yuan [25]. - It is estimated that the net issuance of Treasury bonds and local bonds in February will be 420 billion and 650 billion yuan respectively, totaling 1.07 trillion yuan, similar to the scale in January. This may ease the supply - demand mismatch at the beginning of the year. However, the supply pressure in February is concentrated in the first week, with a single - week issuance of 976.7 billion yuan, accounting for about 53% of the total February issuance, which may disrupt primary - market issuance pricing and affect secondary - market yields [2][28]. 3.2.2 Capital Changes - In February, the capital market has three challenges: the impact of concentrated net payments for government bonds, seasonal cash - withdrawal demand before the Spring Festival, and the coincidence of the tax period and month - end after the Spring Festival. The inter - bank liquidity may rely more on central - bank injections [2][32]. - Past experience shows that the central bank's capital injections during the Spring Festival have generally been sufficient. Except in 2025, the 7 - day capital rate usually does not fluctuate significantly before the Spring Festival, and it often shows a downward trend from T - 3 days before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the capital rate fluctuates, but the amplitude is smaller than before the Spring Festival [2][42]. 3.2.3 Risk Appetite Adjustment - In terms of equity assets, after the tightening of financing supervision on January 14, the "slow - rise" of the stock market became the consensus. The profitability of equity assets returned to normal, and the continuous suppression of the bond market by the "strong risk appetite" weakened [3][45]. - Regarding gold assets, after Kevin Warsh was nominated as the next Fed chairman, the spot price of London gold plunged on January 30, with a single - day decline of 9.25%, the largest since March 1983. As the price of gold fluctuates at a high level, some funds may turn to lower - volatility assets, which is beneficial to the bond market [3][48]. - After the Spring Festival, the market may enter the policy - gaming stage before the Two Sessions. If the national GDP growth target is slightly lowered, the expectation of strong - stimulus policies may decline, which is relatively favorable for the bond market [51]. 3.2.4 Inflation Concerns - Fundamentally, the manufacturing PMI in January fell 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, indicating a decline in the economy at the beginning of the year. The credit performance in January may be similar to that in 2025, with only a slight year - on - year increase, and the "good start" of credit is lackluster [3][52]. - However, inflation data may always be a concern for the bond market. Domestic high - frequency price data and the year - on - year increase of the overseas CRB industrial - raw - material index suggest that the PPI data in January may continue to rise, which may challenge the bullish sentiment in the bond market [3][58]. 3.3 Bond - Market Strategy: Seek Progress While Maintaining Stability - Given the above four key lines, the bond market in February may continue to fluctuate. The strategy of "seeking stability" is mainly reflected in the duration aspect, with the portfolio duration maintained at a neutral level, such as around 3.5 years for interest - rate products [6][66]. - The strategy of "seeking progress" is reflected in the selection of bond varieties. For example, investors can consider taking advantage of the spread - compression opportunities within interest - rate bonds [6][66].

Price Trends - The Business Price Index (BPI) reached a one-year high of 956 points as of January 30, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.3% compared to December 2022[3] - The energy index increased by 1.5% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous index surged by 21.7%[4] - The geopolitical threat index averaged 242.0 points, marking a month-on-month rise of 66.3%, the highest since March 2020[3] Commodity Prices - In the commodity price rankings for the week of January 26-30, 15 non-ferrous products saw price increases, with 8 of them rising over 5%, accounting for 36.4% of the monitored products[4] - Notable price increases included neodymium metal (11.14%), praseodymium oxide (10.07%), and neodymium oxide (9.69%)[4] - The South China Comprehensive Index rose by 8.6% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% compared to 3.0% in December[5] Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing price index for major cities showed mixed results, with Beijing and Guangzhou experiencing a narrowing decline of -0.5% and -1.0% respectively, while Shenzhen saw a slight increase of 0.4%[5] - The average listing prices for second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were 143.1, 180.3, 153.8, and 222.1 respectively, with varying month-on-month changes[5] Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) increased by 10.3% month-on-month, driven by rising prices in battery cells and silicon wafers[7] - Lithium carbonate futures prices surged by 27.6% month-on-month, while the DRAM industry composite index (DXI) rose by 25.8%, reaching a historical high[7] Logistics and Transportation - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) increased by 2.5% month-on-month, with the Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai-New York indices recording changes of 2.6% and -3.4% respectively[8] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rebounded by 14.4% month-on-month, following a decline of -26.7% in December[9] Food Prices - The average wholesale price of pork rose by 5.8% month-on-month, while the prices of 28 key vegetables fell by 0.2%[10] - The non-food price index (ICPI) recorded a slight decrease of -0.07% month-on-month, with transportation and communication services showing the highest increases[10]

2月2日早盘，全球最大的加密货币比特币一度跌破76000美元/枚，较2025年峰值时期下跌约40%。截至发稿，比特币回升至77746.86美元/枚。 市场追踪机构Coinglass数据显示，同期全球共有超16万人被爆仓。 | 总爆仓 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1小时爆仓 | $3233.76万 | 4小时爆仓 | $1.82亿 | | 多車 | $944.27万 | 念車 | $1.33亿 | | 卒単 | $2289.49万 | 卒車 | $4877.71万 | | 12小时爆仓 | $4.03亿 | 24小时爆仓 | $4.89亿 | | 名車 | $3.00亿 | 多車 | $3.55亿 | | 卒車 | $1.03亿 | 卒車 | $1.35亿 | 与此同时，在沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席后，市场也担心他可能会收紧金融体系中的现金，给加密货币市场带来压力。据报道，美联储的决策对加 密货币市场至关重要，因为加密货币往往表现出所谓的"风险偏好"特性。当利率高企时，美国国债等收益更为安全的资产更具吸引力，从而将资金从加 密货币等波动性较大的资产中分流。相反，较低 ...

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Impact - The global cryptocurrency market is under pressure following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to significant declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices [1][2] - Bitcoin experienced a drop of over 7%, reaching a low of $76,000, while Ethereum fell by more than 11%, hitting a low of $2,256 [2] - In the last 24 hours, over $2.5 billion in cryptocurrency contracts were liquidated, affecting around 420,000 traders, with over 90% being long positions [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Sentiment - The current sell-off in cryptocurrencies is attributed to weakened demand, thin liquidity, and a disconnection from broader market trends, rather than panic selling [2] - Analysts note that Bitcoin is suffering from a lack of buyers, momentum, and confidence, with its price down approximately 40% from its peak in 2025 [2] - The market sentiment among investors is described as chaotic, with many expressing a desire to simply "survive" amid the downturn [6] Group 3: Precious Metals Reaction - Following Warsh's nomination, precious metals like gold and silver also faced significant sell-offs, with gold futures experiencing the largest single-day dollar drop on record [7][10] - Silver prices plummeted by 31%, marking the largest decline since March 1980 [7] - Analysts suggest that the recent price corrections in precious metals were necessary after a period of rapid increases, which had raised costs for industrial users [10]