Table_First|Table_Summary 固收定期研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 【华福固收】7 月信用债投资策略思考 ➢ 7月信用债投资策略思考 展望后市，考虑到抢出口放缓及前期已透支需求，出口可能阶段性走弱，后续关税谈判 存在不确定性，而国内各类对冲政策效果有待观察，央行可能通过重启国债买卖实现流 动性投放，因此我们判断7月甚至三季度机构风险偏好降低，债市整体基调仍是震荡偏 多。但从稍长时间看，国内"内卷式"竞争问题受到中央及多个行业协会关注、欧洲财 政扩张提振经济预期，叠加债市2024年的趋势型下行已透支了后市的行情，因此后续债 市下行空间可能有限。 ➢ 风险提示：行业面临政策不及预期风险、基本面下行风险、信用风险蔓延。 团队成员 分析师: 徐亮 执业证书编号： S0210524040003 邮箱：xl30484@hfzq.com.cn Table_First|Table_Contacter 分 析 师 : 梁克淳 梁克淳 执业证书编号： S0210524060002 邮箱：lkc30514@hfzq.com.cn 在上述判断的基础上，信用债价值凸显，且随着信用债ETF增长与"存款搬家"行 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that recent market and policy focus on de-capacity and anti-involution may signify the late stage of the overcapacity cycle, with market-driven capacity reduction already underway, regardless of policy [2][10][11] - Since 2021, the continuous decline in corporate revenue has led to a cumulative year-on-year negative growth in capital expenditure across the entire A-share market, marking the longest period of negative growth since 2005 [10][11] - De-capacity is a crucial part of the capacity cycle, but its short-term impact on profitability is limited if demand does not show a turning point; supply policies mainly affect the height of future price reversals rather than the direction of prices [10][11] Group 2 - The process of de-capacity typically follows three steps: declining revenue and profits lead to reduced capital expenditure, which subsequently results in a decrease in capacity growth [3][11] - The effects of de-capacity are often only visible when demand improves; during periods of declining industry prices, the supply-demand balance tends to be in a low-cost zone, meaning most companies are losing money [15][17] - The current overcapacity is primarily driven by the decline in the real estate sector since 2021, with a need to monitor whether a second demand decline similar to 2014-2015 will occur [18][21] Group 3 - The current judgment suggests a strategic outlook similar to 2013 and 2019, with a high probability of developing into a comprehensive bull market, although tactical indicators may require time to break through the recent trading range [23][24] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in July, but a return to a bull market is anticipated in the latter part of Q3 or Q4, contingent on either earnings or policy turning optimistic [23][24] - Recent configuration suggestions include a focus on value in the short term, with potential increases in exposure to elastic industries after Q3 [26][29]

这个周末发生了许多重要消息。一起来梳理一下这两天国内政策层面上对几个行业出现的变化苗头。我 们先来说第一个，关于新能源汽车。刚刚官方代表的一些渠道对外吹风，点评了中国商务部对欧盟白兰 地的反倾销调查。这件事情最终的结果是认定欧盟的白兰地对中国的销售存在着倾销问题。 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、明着罚，暗中缓，汽车行业的两个推力 1、明着罚，暗中缓，汽车行业的两个推力 2、"去产能"行业推力超预期，聊聊新能源和煤炭 3、芯片赛道的外部刺激，又出现了 这条消息表面上看起来是一条坏消息，似乎意味着中国和欧盟的关系出现了短期的紧张。但实际上，如 果仔细剖析，它是一个大缓和的信号。因为在此次反倾销调查中，虽然表面上认定了倾销行为，但实际 上豁免了34家欧洲最重要的相关企业，这意味着给它们免除了罚单。所以，表面上是制裁，背地里其实 是通融。 中国的这家代表官方的媒体渠道也直白地点评了出来，说你看中国商务部对欧盟相关产业的这种处理方 式，是不是也能给 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global battery installation market is experiencing intense competition, with companies like 中创新航 (Zhongxin Innovation) achieving significant growth through diverse applications and flexible technology combinations. The company has reached a record monthly installation of 4.82 GWh in May, marking a 40% increase from April and positioning it as the fourth largest globally in cumulative installations for the first five months of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Installation Growth and Market Position - In the first five months of 2025, 中创新航's cumulative installation reached 16.85 GWh, ranking fourth globally [1]. - The company achieved a record monthly installation of 4.82 GWh in May, with a 40% month-over-month growth, the fastest globally [1]. - The diverse product range of 中创新航 covers multiple applications, including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, energy storage, ships, and aircraft, contributing to collaborative growth across various markets [1]. Group 2: International Orders and Technology Advancements - 中创新航 has secured a 30 GWh battery order from Hyundai for the IONIQ 5 model, marking a significant milestone in its international expansion [2]. - The company has also received orders from Volkswagen, planning to supply batteries to multiple subsidiaries by the end of 2027, enhancing its overseas customer base [2]. - The fast-charging technology of 中创新航 is gaining traction in the domestic passenger vehicle market, with the recent launch of the Xiaopeng G7 featuring the company's 5C ultra-fast charging AI battery [2]. Group 3: Commercial Vehicle Growth - 中创新航's commercial vehicle battery deliveries exceeded 6 GWh in the first half of 2025, representing a 280% year-over-year increase, with June deliveries surpassing 1.5 GWh for the first time [4]. - The company anticipates rapid growth in its commercial vehicle segment over the next two years, driven by the commercial viability of electric heavy trucks [4]. - In addition to passenger and commercial vehicles, 中创新航 is making strides in electric ships and overseas energy storage projects, securing significant contracts in various regions [4]. Group 4: Capacity Expansion - To meet the diverse delivery schedules, 中创新航 is accelerating its global capacity expansion, with new projects launched in Changzhou, Xiamen, and Chengdu, as well as a planned 15 GWh energy storage battery factory in Portugal [5]. - The company is in a phase of supply capacity expansion, expecting a concentrated release of delivery capabilities by 2026 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the lithium sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [6]. Core Insights - The lithium price has shown continuous growth, rising from 59,000 CNY/ton to 64,000 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 8.1% since June 23 [10]. - Supply-side signals indicate a reduction in output from Australian mines, suggesting that the industry is in the later stages of capacity clearance [2]. - Demand remains robust, with significant growth in the lithium battery production and electric vehicle sales, supporting a favorable price transmission for lithium [3]. Supply Summary - Australian lithium mines are signaling reduced output, with production expected to remain flat at 740,000 tons in Q1 2025, down 17% from the previous quarter [2]. - The current pricing has reached a sensitive cost level for Australian producers, leading to operational adjustments and cost-cutting measures [2]. - The low lithium prices have resulted in a squeeze on capital expenditures, potentially leading to a slowdown in supply growth in the future [2]. Demand Summary - The lithium battery industry is experiencing high growth, with domestic battery production reaching 801 GWh in the first half of 2025, a 52% year-on-year increase [26]. - Electric vehicle sales in China reached 5.42 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 32% increase compared to the previous year [26]. - The competitive landscape in the electric vehicle sector is prompting manufacturers to initiate a "de-involution" process to stabilize pricing and improve profitability across the supply chain [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with low-cost resource supply and diversified non-lithium operations will have a competitive advantage in the current market [4]. - Recommended stocks include Zhongkuang Resources, Yongxing Materials, Salt Lake Co., Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are expected to navigate the industry downturn effectively [4].

华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 展望 2025 年下半年工业硅行情。从库存、成本及价格来看，2025 年下半年预计工业硅行业去库力压力仍较大，原材料价格较难上 涨，部分地区电价下调，成本支撑相对较弱，若无行业供给端限产以及去产能政策扰动，上方压力较大。全年盘面预计…… 展望 2025 下半年多晶硅：供应端受到政策扰动及成本压力仍存在一定变数，但整体开工或维持低位。目前多晶硅面临产能大、高库 存、弱需求的格局，在供需格局未发生重大变化的情况下，多晶硅价格仍将面临较大压力。目前行业最大变数仍在政策端，预计…… 过剩压力仍较大 可关注政策扰动引发行情 新能源&有色组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 王育武 从业资格号：03114162 投资咨询号：0022466 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 陈思捷 从业资格号：3080232 投资咨询号：0016047 师橙 从业资格号：3046665 投资咨询号：0014806 期货研究报告 ｜工业硅多晶硅半年报 2025-07-06 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 封帆 从业资格号：03139777 投资咨询号：0021579 电话 ...

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 展望 2025 年下半年：尽管短期或有种种因素打乱节奏，但行情整体仍然围绕自身基本面发展。碳酸锂整体供需格局或仍难改变，总体 供给仍显过剩，在矿端以及锂盐厂没有出现明显减产之前，碳酸锂市场或仍然维持震荡探底过程。我们预计，虽然近期存在储能抢出口 现象，需求端有一定支撑，但随着关税豁免到期...... 新能源&有色金属研究 过剩格局未变 锂价或震荡探底 New Eergy and Non-Frrous Mtals 本期分析研究员 陈思捷 从业资格号：3080232 投资咨询号：0016047 封帆 从业资格号：03139777 投资咨询号：0021579 王育武 从业资格号：03114162 投资咨询号： 0022466 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 师橙 从业资格号：3046665 投资咨询号：0014806 期货研究报告 | 碳酸锂半年报 2025-07-06 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 电话：021-60827968 邮箱：chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016 ...

华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 2025 年上半年纯碱价格重心下移，纯碱供需持续宽松，使得各环节库存均大幅增加。展望 2025 年下半年，纯碱产能仍然面临过剩局面， 纯碱总库存将继续呈现高位上行态势，除非部分高成本产能出清，否则纯碱价格将持续下探成本..... 纯碱供需宽松，价格继续承压 邝志鹏 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 刘国梁 从业资格号： F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 钢铁煤炭与建材研究 Research on Ferrous and Construction Commodities 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院钢铁煤炭与建材研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 王海涛 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 余彩云 从业资格号： F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 期货研究报告 | 纯碱半年报 2025-07-06 纯碱供需宽松，价格继续承压 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 邮箱：wanghaitao@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 邝志鹏 邮箱：kuan ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to combat "involutionary" competition and optimize pig production capacity, as highlighted in the recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee [1][17] - The overall pig farming industry is currently profitable, with self-breeding and self-raising models showing increased profits [18][23] - The poultry sector is experiencing price declines, particularly in broiler chickens and chicken seedlings, indicating a potential for price recovery in the future [19][36] Summary by Sections Agricultural Data Tracking - The national average price for lean meat pigs is 14.82 CNY/kg, up 3.9% from last week, while the average wholesale price for pork is 20.58 CNY/kg, up 1.7% [21][22] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter has decreased to 90.05 kg, down 0.6% week-on-week [26] - The price of 15 kg piglets has decreased to 36.77 CNY/kg, down 1% from last week [29] Pig Farming - The average profit for self-breeding pigs is 119.72 CNY/head, an increase of 69.48 CNY/head from last week, while the profit for purchased piglets is -26.26 CNY/head, an increase of 105.45 CNY/head [23][24] - The report suggests monitoring the impact of recent policy changes on pig prices and inventory behavior [18] Poultry Farming - The average price for broiler chickens is 6.75 CNY/kg, down 3.7% from last week, and the average price for chicken products is 8.45 CNY/kg, down 1.2% [36] - The price for broiler chicks has dropped to 1.36 CNY/chick, down 20% from last week [31] Crop and Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth opportunities for industry companies [19] Livestock Support - The report notes increased price volatility in agricultural products, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors due to their advantages in procurement and scale [19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views Market Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the polyolefin prices generally maintained a weak and volatile trend. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, with new capacity pressure remaining. The production profits of oil - and coal - based polyolefins were good, leading to continuous increase in production. However, downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - economic atmosphere, Sino - US trade war, and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, causing wide - range fluctuations in the market [7]. - In the second half of 2025, the domestic capacity expansion cycle will continue, mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter. The supply pressure will be fully realized, and new capacity pressure will still exist. It is expected that the PE capacity growth rate will reach 8% and the PP capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half of the year. Polyolefin production is expected to continue to increase. The growth rate of downstream plastic product demand is slowing down, and greater consumption stimulus policies are needed to boost market demand. The government is expected to accelerate the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and boost market sentiment, resulting in a slight increase in polyolefin demand growth rate [8]. Strategy - Short - hedge polyolefins at high prices. In the second half of 2025, the polyolefin capacity expansion cycle will continue, with new capacity pressure remaining. Domestic demand growth is slowing down, and external demand is weak due to tariffs. Polyolefins are expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner. The upstream energy prices are running weakly. The absolute price of coal is at a low level, with limited downside space in valuation. One can short the production profit of coal - based polyolefins [6][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Market Review and Basis Structure - In the first half of 2025, the plastic main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6900 - 8200 yuan/ton, and the polypropylene main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6800 - 7500 yuan/ton. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, and downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - events such as the Sino - US trade war and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts [19][20]. II. Polyolefin Capacity Expansion 1. 2025 China Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, the new PE capacity was 285 tons/year, mainly concentrated in the second quarter and in full - density and LLDPE units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PE capacity reached 3829 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 7.2% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will reach 8% in the second half and 15% for the whole year, reaching 4114 tons/year [21]. - In the first half of 2025, the new PP capacity was 196 tons/year, with production in both the first and second quarters, mainly in refinery and coal - chemical units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PP capacity reached 4657 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 4% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half, and the capacity is expected to reach 5122 tons/year for the whole year [22]. 2. 2025 Overseas Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, there were few new overseas polyolefin plant startups, and the main startups are concentrated in the second half, with possible delays in the official startup time [26]. III. Polyolefin Maintenance 1. PE Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, due to continuous new PE capacity, the over - capacity pattern in the industry continued, and the PE plant maintenance volume remained high. In terms of process, oil - based PE maintenance accounted for 78% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PE accounted for 1%, and alkane - based PE accounted for 21% [31]. 2. PP Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, the maintenance volume of upstream petrochemical plants remained high, especially for PDH - based PP plants sensitive to production profits. Oil - based PP maintenance accounted for 41% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PP accounted for 5%, PDH - based PP accounted for 40%, and other processes accounted for about 14% [36]. 3. Polyolefin Operating Rate Forecast - In the first half of 2025, there were intensive plant maintenance in March, May, and July. The annual average operating rate of PP was lower than that of PE. Among PE varieties, LLDPE had a higher operating rate than the total, while HDPE had a lower one. In terms of process, oil - and coal - based polyolefins had better operating rates, while PDH plants had low operating rates from March to May due to production losses [41][46]. IV. Polyolefin Domestic Supply and Import - Export 1. Domestic Polyolefin Production - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PE production was 15.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. LLDPE production was 6.74 million tons (about 44% of the total), HDPE was 6.92 million tons (about 45%), and LDPE was 1.72 million tons (about 11%). The domestic LLDPE and HDPE production was more than LDPE, and LDPE was more dependent on imports. - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PP production was 18.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. PP drawstring production was 5.89 million tons (about 31.6% of the total), PP homopolymer was 11.65 million tons, and PP copolymer was 6.9 million tons [51]. 2. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - In the first half of 2025, energy prices were running weakly. Polyolefin production profit was mainly affected by crude oil prices. The profit of crude - oil - based polyolefins was acceptable, while PDH - based PP was in a loss state. The average operating rate of PE was 88.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and that of PP was 85.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The overall polyolefin operating rate was at a low level, and the capacity utilization rate was expected to decline with continuous capacity expansion [56]. 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Spread and Operating Ratio - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of LLDPE was 39%, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, HDPE was 36.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%, and LDPE was 9.3%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The operating rate of PE standard products increased significantly, while that of non - standard products decreased, leading to a stronger spread between non - standard and standard PE products. - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of PP drawstring was 28.7%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The operating ratios of PP homopolymer injection, PP copolymer injection, and PP fiber fluctuated mainly, and the spread between PP non - standard and standard products changed little [66]. 4. Polyolefin Import - Export - From January to May 2025, the PE import volume was 5.965 million tons, an 8% increase from the same period last year; the export volume was 415,000 tons, an 8% increase; and the net import volume was 5.55 million tons, a slight increase. The PP import volume was 1.424 million tons, a 9% decrease; the export volume was 1.329 million tons, a 21.6% increase; and the net import volume was 100,000 tons, a decrease. - In the first half of 2025, the external dependence of PE remained high but was decreasing. PP imports continued to decline, exports increased significantly, and the net import volume approached zero, gradually transforming into an export - oriented product [79]. 5. Polyolefin Domestic - Overseas Spread - In the first half of 2025, the LLDPE import window was partially opened at some times, and the export window was closed. The PP export window was opened, and the import window was closed. The import - export profits were mostly around the break - even point, and the import - export windows were not significantly opened. The overseas polyolefin prices were improving, and the domestic - overseas spread strengthened slightly [88]. V. Polyolefin Demand and Inventory 1. Polyolefin Downstream Demand - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product production was 5.4%. Domestic demand for plastic products increased compared with last year, mainly driven by industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and express delivery. The national subsidy policy had a good effect on domestic demand. However, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product export value was - 2%, and that of primary - form plastic import volume was - 2.3%. The downstream external demand was under pressure due to the Sino - US trade war. - In terms of PE downstream demand, the agricultural film operating rate and order days fluctuated little, currently in the seasonal off - season. The operating rate and order days of packaging film decreased year - on - year, and the profitability of stretch film slightly increased. The raw material inventory days of PE downstream terminals were at a low level, maintaining just - in - time procurement. - In terms of PP downstream demand, the operating and order conditions of plastic weaving and BOPP film were similar to previous years, and the production profit of BOPP film decreased [104]. 2. Polyolefin Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the inventory accumulation pressure of petrochemical polyolefins was acceptable, and the inventory destocking rate in June was slow. Overall, the PP inventory situation was better than that of PE. - For PE inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies and coal - chemical enterprises increased, the port inventory was high, and the inventory of middle - stream traders was low, with weak purchasing willingness. - For PP inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies increased, the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises and ports was low, and the inventory of middle - stream traders slightly increased [134].