1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA is expected to move up with the cost center in the short - term as international crude oil rises significantly, new PTA plants are put into operation and increase load gradually, domestic supply is expected to rise, and there is an expectation of polyester load reduction during the terminal seasonal off - season [6]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to rebound and repair in the short - term as the cost side moves up, some maintenance devices restart, imports may be affected by geopolitical factors, and there is a strong expectation of turning from weak to strong in supply - demand [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Price Movement**: Due to the smooth progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks, the continuation of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the US, and the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation, oil prices have risen significantly. As of June 13, the Asian PX closing price was at 854 US dollars/ton CFR China, up 36 US dollars/ton from May 30. However, the absolute price increase of PX was less than that of crude oil because multiple PX plants restarted and the downstream polyester performance was not ideal [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic PX was 87.27%, a week - on - week increase of 3.83%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 75.29%, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. It is expected that next week's PX output will increase slightly compared with this week [20]. - **Processing Fee**: As of June 13, the PX - naphtha price spread was 233.3 US dollars/ton, down 24.5 US dollars/ton from June 6. With the rapid recovery of the supply side, the PX - naphtha price spread declined. It is expected that the processing fee will continue to decline next week [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Price Movement**: Affected by the sharp rise of international crude oil due to the Middle East geopolitical situation at the end of the week, the absolute price of PTA followed the cost increase. As of June 13, the PTA spot price reached 5015 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 + 221 [27]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA reached 83.25%, a week - on - week increase of 4.24%. In June, it is expected that the PTA capacity utilization rate will increase significantly as some devices have maintenance expectations and some are planned to restart [31]. - **Processing Fee**: This week, the PTA processing fee continued to rise. However, with new device production and the restart of previous maintenance devices, supply is expected to increase continuously. With poor terminal performance and strong polyester production reduction atmosphere, it is expected that the PTA processing fee will decline slightly next week [34]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In June, with the co - existence of PTA device maintenance and restart and the expectation of polyester load reduction, the PTA supply - demand will shift from destocking to a tight balance [35]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Price Movement**: This week, Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol bottomed out and stabilized. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation at the end of the week, with the expectation of supply reduction and cost support, MEG slightly rose. As of June 13, the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol price was 4426 yuan/ton, and the South China market delivery price was 4530 yuan/ton [41]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol was 55.07%, a week - on - week increase of 2.71%. The output of domestic factories has increased this week as some coal - chemical factories restarted and some integrated maintenance devices resumed work [42]. - **Inventory**: As of June 12, the total MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China was 56.38 tons, an increase of 1.67 tons compared with June 9. As of June 18, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 9.88 tons [47]. - **Production Profit**: The profits of all Chinese ethylene glycol process samples declined across the board. As of June 13, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 87.69 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11.02 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 72.85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68.88 yuan/ton compared with last week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester was 88.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. In June, it is expected that the monthly polyester output will decline significantly as supply reduction may be greater than increase due to poor demand and fewer days [53][58]. - **Product Inventory**: This week, the overall polyester production and sales were sluggish, and the industry inventory slightly increased [63]. - **Cash Flow**: Entering the traditional off - season, affected by weak terminal consumption, the polyester cash flow may continue to be compressed [66]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of June 12, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.02%, a decrease of 0.24% compared with the previous period. The average order days of terminal weaving were 9.91 days, a decrease of 0.51 days compared with last week [71]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: Oil prices have risen significantly, but the absolute price increase of PX is less than that of crude oil [74]. - **Supply Side**: PTA production increased significantly this week, and the ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate increased [74]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization rate declined slightly, and the weaving starting rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased [74]. - **Inventory**: PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the MEG port inventory in East China increased [74].

1. Tin Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Supply - side recovery is slow, and short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the weak demand outlook, it is advisable to focus on the supply - side recovery rhythm and adopt a short - selling strategy based on inventory and import data inflection points [1]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.11% to 265,600 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium dropped 13.64% to 950 yuan/ton. LME 0 - 3 premium fell 9.85% to - 82.50 dollars/ton [1]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: Import loss increased by 11.20% to - 10,937.43 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.09 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 dropped 880.00% to - 390 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: April tin ore imports increased 18.48% to 9,861 tons. SMM refined tin production in May decreased 2.37% to 14,840 tons [1]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF inventory decreased 3.59% to 7,107 tons, and social inventory increased 1.00% to 8,945 tons [1]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Short - term fundamentals still face pressure. In June, the balance may be in surplus due to increased processing output and some lithium spodumene lithium extraction increments. The upstream has not seen substantial large - scale production cuts, and the futures price is expected to run weakly, with the main contract referring to the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 60,650 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) rose 461.54% to 730 yuan/ton [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 rose to 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production decreased 2.34% to 72,080 tons, and demand increased 4.81% to 93,938 tons. Total inventory increased 1.49% to 97,637 tons [2]. 3. Nickel Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the short term, the fundamentals change little and lack driving forces. The disk is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract referring to the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped 0.33% to 121,500 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium rose 3.09% to 2,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Electrowinning Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP producing electrowon nickel decreased 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton [4]. - **New Energy Material Price**: Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price remained unchanged at 27,815 yuan/ton [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 remained at - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased 2.62% to 35,350 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased 5.39% to 25,616 tons [4]. 4. Stainless Steel Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The disk returns to the fundamental trading logic. In the short term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals due to the supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract referring to the range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped 0.39% to 12,750 yuan/ton, and the basis spread decreased 3.90% to 370 yuan/ton [7]. - **Raw Material Price**: The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) dropped 0.59% to 934 yuan/nickel point [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 rose to - 25 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.36% to 179.12 million tons, and 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased 2.04% to 53.08 million tons [7]. 5. Zinc Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side easing cycle. If the growth rate of TC exceeds expectations, it indicates smooth transmission to the refined zinc end. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy in the long - term, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped 0.31% to 22,240 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped to 240 yuan/ton [10]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: Import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 8.33 [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 dropped to 195 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: May refined zinc production decreased 1.08% to 54.94 million tons. Galvanizing开工率 increased to 60.06% [10]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 2.77% to 7.71 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.78% to 13.1 million tons [10]. 6. Aluminum Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: For alumina, the short - term futures price has limited downward adjustment space, and the medium - term reference cash cost is 2,700 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term prices are supported, but there is pressure in Q3, with the lowest support at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.39% to 20,730 yuan/ton, and the premium was - 210 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: May alumina production increased 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased 3.41% to 372.90 million tons [13]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 8.73% to 46.00 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.67% to 35.3 million tons [13]. 7. Copper Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the context of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices will fluctuate in the short - term. The "rush - to - export" demand overdrafts subsequent demand, and there is uncertainty in US copper import tariff policies. The main contract refers to the range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped 0.15% to 78,955 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped to 35 yuan/ton [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 rose to 340 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: May electrolytic copper production increased 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and electrolytic copper imports in April decreased 19.06% to 25.00 million tons [14]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased 2.69% to 14.48 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased 5.08% to 10.19 million tons [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that US inflation data is weakening, labor market is stable, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the US - Iran conflict may push up the US dollar index and put pressure on nickel prices. [2] - Fundamentally, the risk of resource disturbances has decreased as the Philippines cancels the nickel ore export ban. Indonesia's resource supply is tight, and the high ore price provides cost support. The demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak, and the supply side has also weakened, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. [2] - In the later stage, macro factors may cause periodic disturbances, and the weak fundamental expectation will continue. Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - SHFE nickel price dropped from 122,710 yuan/ton on June 9, 2025, to 119,920 yuan/ton on June 13, 2025, a decrease of 2,790 yuan/ton. LME nickel price decreased from 15,421 US dollars/ton to 15,128 US dollars/ton, a decline of 293 US dollars/ton. [4] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,568 tons to 197,538 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory increased by 573 tons to 21,765 tons. [4] - The average price of high - nickel pig iron dropped from 960 yuan/nickel point to 947 yuan/nickel point. [4] - Stainless steel inventory increased from 893,000 tons to 917,000 tons, an increase of 23,500 tons. [4] 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines rose from 50 US dollars/wet ton to 51.55 US dollars/wet ton. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia remained at 41.3 US dollars/wet ton. The resource disturbance risk has been eliminated, but the supply in Indonesia is still tight, and the cost side is supported. [5] 3.2.2 Ferronickel - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 951.5 yuan/nickel point to 934.5 yuan/nickel point. In May, China's nickel pig iron production was expected to be about 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. In April, domestic ferronickel imports totaled about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. In May, Indonesia's ferronickel production was expected to be 142,600 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase/decrease of 16.9%/ - 0.47%. The cost pressure on ferronickel plants is prominent. [6] 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained at 27,815 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,000 yuan/ton. In June, the expected production of nickel sulfate metal was about 25,425 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 16.61%/ - 2.27%. The production of ternary materials increased slightly, but the demand is expected to have no increment. [7] 3.2.4 Macro and Fundamental Aspects - In the macro - aspect, US economic data is generally good, inflation is in a downward channel, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. [7][8] - In the fundamental aspect, on the supply side, the smelting start - up rate has decreased, but the export window is still open. In terms of terminal consumption, the new - energy vehicle market had good sales at the beginning of June, but it is in the off - season, and consumption is difficult to boost significantly. [8][9] 3.3 Industry News - The Philippines' Senate and House of Representatives decided to cancel the nickel ore export ban clause in the final law, and the PNIA welcomed this decision. [12] - ITSS nickel - iron plant's No. 14 furnace was successfully restarted after maintenance. [12] - Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved new progress, and the two sides reached a consensus on the measures framework to implement the important consensus of the leaders' phone call and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks. [12] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides 10 charts, including the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless steel prices, and stainless steel inventory. [14][16]

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月16日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 狱跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 265600 | 265300 | 300 | 0.11% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 950 | 1100 | -150 | -13.64% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 266100 | 265800 | 300 | 0.11% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -82.50 | -75.10 | -7.40 | -9.85% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 那值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口密亏 | -10937.43 | -9835.62 | -1101.81 | -11.20% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.09 | 8. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: After the previous profit repair, supply has increased, and downstream polyester producers plan to cut production, leading to a weakening supply - demand balance. However, short - term support is still strong due to the restart of PTA devices and new installations. PX09 is expected to fluctuate between 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA: With the restart of previous maintenance devices and new installations, and the expansion of downstream polyester producers' production cut plans, the supply - demand balance is weakening. But considering the demand for PX and rising oil prices, the price has support at low levels. TA09 is expected to fluctuate between 4600 - 4900 yuan/ton [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: In June, the supply - demand structure is good, with limited import growth. Short - term demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate between 4200 - 4450 yuan/ton [2]. - Short - fiber: The supply and demand are both weak. The processing fee has been repaired recently, but the repair space is limited. PF08 is expected to run between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [2]. - Bottle - chip: In June, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the processing fee may rebound. The absolute price follows the cost [2]. Polyolefin Industry PP is bearish in the medium - term and can be used as a short - position allocation. PE has a weaker structure, and geopolitical conflicts may lead to a short - term rebound followed by short - selling. If oil prices fall, there will be more downward space [7]. Crude Oil Industry Oil price fluctuations are expected to increase due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. WTI's upper resistance is in the range of [79, 80] dollars/barrel, Brent's upper pressure is in the range of [80, 81] dollars/barrel, and SC's pressure level is in the range of [580, 595] yuan/barrel [10]. Urea Industry In the short - term, under high supply pressure, downstream demand has not yet connected well. The futures price may rebound due to the linkage of the energy - chemical sector, but the amplitude is limited by the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Methanol Industry Imports and inland logistics have jointly pushed up port inventories. In the short - term, the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics. In the long - term, if Iranian supply is interrupted, it may push up the market sentiment, but downstream losses and high implicit inventories will restrict the spot price increase [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: Recently, the supply has decreased, and the demand is under pressure. There may be inventory pressure risks in the short - term. The 7 - 9 positive spread should be exited. In the medium - term, the far - month contract is looking for a bottom [18]. - PVC: In the short - term, it shows a volatile trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the weak real - estate market. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [18]. Styrene Industry Crude oil price increases have driven up the downstream product prices. Pure benzene has upward potential, but high inventory may limit the upside. Styrene's supply and demand have both increased weekly, and port inventory has decreased slightly. In the short - term, there is upward space, but there is medium - term fundamental pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: From June 12 to 13, prices of most polyester products and upstream raw materials changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.7%, and the price of WTI crude oil (July) increased by 6.8% [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply has increased, and downstream polyester producers plan to cut production. PTA's supply - demand balance is weakening, while ethylene glycol's supply - demand structure in June is good [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various sectors in the polyester industry have changed. For example, the PTA operating rate increased from 79.7% to 82.6% [2]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot increased, and the price spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PP inventory is accumulating, and PE inventory is decreasing. The operating rates of PP and PE devices have increased [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 16, compared with June 13, prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the price spreads also changed [10]. - **Supply and Demand Concerns**: The market is worried about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues, and OPEC's actual spare capacity is lower than the theoretical value [10]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads of urea contracts have changed from June 12 to 13 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea supply is high, and downstream demand has not yet connected well [13]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the price spreads also changed [15]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Port inventory has increased significantly. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot changed, and the price spreads also changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda supply has decreased, and demand is under pressure. PVC's short - term supply - demand contradiction is not intensified, but there is long - term pressure [18]. Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of styrene upstream raw materials, spot, and futures increased, and the price spreads changed [21][22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of styrene have both increased weekly, and port inventory has decreased slightly [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it should be treated bearishly [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs will gradually emerge, and geopolitical factors increase price uncertainty. In the short term, the domestic macro - expectation is weak, and the market trading focus returns to the weak pattern of strong reality + weak expectation. The overall demand maintains a downward trend, and the expected growth rate of the supply side (arrival) increases month - on - month. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will fluctuate weakly [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Last week, the black series fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand relationship of finished products showed obvious off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand. The inventory of finished products continued to decline at a low level. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of US household appliance tariffs on the demand for plates. The supply of iron ore shows a seasonal incremental feature. The carbon element continuously gives way to the iron element. The blast furnace profit is not significantly compressed due to the price decline. The domestic demand for iron ore continues to decline slightly but remains at a relatively high level [3] Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly month - on - month. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly. The shipment from Australia increased significantly, while the shipment from Brazil declined from a high level, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. Coupled with the fiscal year volume - rushing of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that the overseas ore shipment will maintain a steady recovery trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - The domestic demand has declined from a high level but is still at a high level. The molten iron has declined for five consecutive weeks. The current daily average is 241.61 (month - on - month - 0.19). The blast furnace is mainly under regular maintenance. The current profitability level of steel mills is relatively high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable. Coupled with the full - depth losses of the short - process, it is expected that the molten iron will show an overall high - level decline trend but with a low downward slope. The high demand supports the price [3] Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ore at the steel mill level increased month - on - month. The daily consumption continued to decline but was still at a high level in the same period. With the increase in the arrival volume and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory accumulated this period. Due to the weak market expectation for demand, the restocking expectation is weak. It is expected that the inventory will tend to accumulate later, but due to the high demand, the inventory accumulation pressure is weak [3]

有色金属日报 2025-6-16 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价冲高回落，伦铜微跌 0.24%至 9647 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78350 元/吨。产业层面， 上周三大交易所库存环比减少 1.8 万吨，中上期所库存减少 0.5 至 10.2 万吨，LME 库存减少 1.8 至 11.4 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.6 至 17.6 万吨。上海保税区库存增 ...

相信现在很多人都发现了一个事实，有的小县城，如尤溪，闽清，古田，等地房子比福州厦门闽侯泉州这些大城市，大县还要保值，还要稳定。 很多人觉得不可思议，为什么小县城房子比大城市还保值，还稳定？ 甚至怒骂小县城房价离谱，为此破口大骂。说什么不符合市场经济规律诸如此类话语。 其实小编觉得这是没必要的且无用的。我们只有弄懂了小县城相比福州厦门泉州这些大城市为什么房价更保值， 更稳的背后逻辑，我们才能做出最适合 自己的选择。 永远要记住一件事，存在即合理。如果你觉得不合理，那只是不合你的理。 我们先来看一首白居易的诗，《小岁日喜谈氏外孙女孩满月》这首诗相信我们都很陌生，但是里面有一句我们一定都熟悉那就是"物以稀为贵，情因老更 慈。"意思是：物品因为稀少而珍贵，爱情因老更加深刻。东西少才会珍贵，珍贵的东西才会真贵。 而这和房子价格有什么关系呢？众所周知，这些年，房子上涨的的背后逻辑是供不应求，尤其是福州厦门这样大城市，就是想买房的人是大大多余市场上 可销售的房子的，所以房子才会一直涨这么多年。 而福州，厦门，这些大城市由于过去有很多外来人口涌入，有真刚需，也有大量炒房客，他们一同撑起了过去福州厦门等大城市房价。 然而，随着 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in precious metals prices, particularly silver and platinum, has outpaced gold, attracting significant market attention [3][6] - As of June 6, silver prices increased by 9.04% to $35.9648 per ounce, while platinum reached a high of $1172.59 per ounce, marking a nearly two-year peak [3][4] - Year-to-date, silver has risen approximately 24% and platinum has increased by 28% [3] Group 2 - The price increases of silver and platinum are seen as a technical rebound following gold's previous gains, which rose by 42% over the past year [4][6] - The industrial demand for silver, driven by the solar energy sector, and the automotive industry's need for platinum in catalytic converters are key factors supporting the price increases [7][8] - Both silver and platinum markets are facing supply shortages, with platinum expected to have a shortfall of 30 tons by 2025, exacerbated by declining production in major mining regions [8] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to ongoing global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, which enhance their appeal as safe-haven assets [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention industry investment ratings. Core Views Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel futures market weakened, with the main contract breaking below the 120,000 support level. Macro - wise, the news was relatively calm, and the policy remained uncertain. The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. On the industrial side, spot prices fell, and trading was mediocre. In the medium - term, supply was expected to be loose, and the market was likely to fluctuate within the range of 118,000 - 126,000 [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed narrow - range fluctuations. The market sentiment improved slightly, but high - price resources had weak trading. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand was slowly recovering. The market was expected to fluctuate weakly within the range of 12,400 - 13,000 [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market declined significantly. The fundamentals were under pressure, and the market sentiment was weak. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was difficult to boost. The market was expected to run weakly within the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [5]. Tin - Tin was in a "strong reality, weak expectation" situation. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was expected to be weak. After the sentiment stabilized, a short - selling strategy was recommended [6]. Aluminum Oxide - The supply of aluminum oxide was expected to increase, and the market was likely to turn relatively loose. The spot price was expected to fluctuate weakly, with the lower reference cash cost at 2,700 [7]. Aluminum - The low inventory and low warehouse receipts supported the short - term aluminum price, and it was difficult for the price to decline unilaterally. However, due to factors such as increased tariffs and weakening demand, the domestic aluminum price still faced pressure, with the lower support at 19,000 [7]. Zinc - The zinc market had a long - term supply - side easing cycle. The supply side was expected to be loose, and the demand side might weaken after the peak season. The price was expected to be in the range of 21,000 - 23,000 [9]. Copper - Copper was in a "strong reality + weak expectation" situation. The strong fundamentals restricted price drops, while the weak macro - expectations limited the upside. The price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 78,000 - 80,000 [12]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 121,900 yuan/ton, down 0.65%; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 122,925 yuan/ton, down 0.75%. The LME 0 - 3 was at - 196 dollars/ton, down 0.97%. The futures import loss was - 2,759 yuan/ton, a reduction of 18.78% [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures price difference was 385 yuan/ton, up 4.05% [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 60,650 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate was at 59,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [5]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin was at 265,300 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; SMM 1 tin premium was at 1,100 yuan/ton, down 8.33% [6]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 20,650 yuan/ton, up 1.23%; Yangtze River A00 aluminum was at 20,680 yuan/ton, up 1.27% [7]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 0.04%; SMM 0 zinc ingot (Guangdong) was at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [9]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 79,075 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 79,010 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [12]. Production Cost - **Nickel**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel was 126,132 yuan/ton, down 0.49%; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrolytic nickel was 133,478 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [1]. New Energy Material Prices - Battery - grade nickel sulfate was at 27,815 yuan/ton, unchanged; battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 60,200 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic) was at 48,375 yuan/ton, down 0.57% [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - **Nickel**: 2507 - 2508 was at - 220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; 2508 - 2509 was at - 120 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: 2507 - 2508 was at - 40 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; 2508 - 2509 was at 20 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: 2507 - 2508 was at - 100 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2509 was at - 60 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: 2506 - 2507 was at 50 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2508 was at 230 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: 2506 - 2507 was at 130 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2508 was at 5 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton [7]. - **Zinc**: 2506 - 2507 was at 290 yuan/ton, unchanged; 2507 - 2508 was at 255 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [9]. - **Copper**: 2506 - 2507 was at 290 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2508 was at 160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [12]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62%; refined nickel imports were 8,832 tons, up 8.18%. SHFE inventory was 27,075 tons, up 0.45%; social inventory was 41,553 tons, down 1.97%; LME inventory was 197,634 tons, up 0.06% [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36%; stainless - steel imports were 14.21 million tons, up 10.26%; exports were 44.78 million tons, down 4.85%. 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 53.08 million tons, up 2.04% [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34%; demand was 93,938 tons, up 4.81%. In April, imports were 28,336 tons, up 56.33%; exports were 734 tons, up 233.72%. Total inventory in May was 97,637 tons, up 1.49% [5]. - **Tin**: In April, tin ore imports were 9,861 tons, up 18.48%; SMM refined tin production in May was 14,840 tons, down 2.37%. In April, refined tin imports were 1,128 tons, down 46.31%; exports were 1,637 tons, down 2.15%. SHEF inventory was 7,372 tons, down 9.07%; social inventory was 8,856 tons, down 2.38% [6]. - **Aluminum**: In May, aluminum oxide production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66%; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41%. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 46.00 million tons, down 8.73%; LME inventory was 35.8 million tons, down 0.64% [7]. - **Zinc**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08%; in April, imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%; exports were 0.25 million tons, up 75.76%. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 7.71 million tons, down 2.77%; LME inventory was 13.3 million tons, down 1.47% [9]. - **Copper**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12%; in April, imports were 25.00 million tons, down 19.06%. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 74.73 million tons, down 6.11%; electrolytic copper rod - making capacity utilization was 73.21%, down 1.66%. Domestic social inventory was 14.48 million tons, down 2.69%; bonded - area inventory was 5.97 million tons, up 2.93%; SHFE inventory was 10.74 million tons, up 1.52%; LME inventory was 11.69 million tons, down 2.18%; COMEX inventory was 19.21 million short tons, up 0.60% [12].