| 镇产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月22日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解键 | 124525 | 124575 | -20 | -0.04% | 元/肥 | | 1#金川嶺 | 125475 | 125525 | -50 | -0.04% | 元/肥 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2100 | 2150 | -50 | -2.33% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口娱 | 123575 | 123575 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镍升贴水 | 200 | 200 | 0 | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -204 | -202 | -3 | 1.27% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -2587 | -2726 | 138 | -5.10% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | ...

行业 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 5 月 22 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various futures markets, including financial derivatives (such as stock index futures and treasury bond futures), precious metals, container shipping indices, and a wide range of commodity futures (like non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and special commodities). It provides market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each category, with the overall market showing a complex and diverse situation, including trends of price fluctuations, supply - demand changes, and impacts from policies and international events. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market had sector rotation with stable trading volume. The major stock indices showed mixed performance, and most of the four major stock index futures contracts rose. The base spreads of all contracts were in a discount state. With stable support below the index and large upward breakthrough pressure, it entered a neutral oscillation. Suggestions included selling put options at support levels to earn premiums, or going long on the September IM contract on pullbacks and selling call options with a strike price of 6400 in September for a covered call strategy [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market marginally loosened, and treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market showed a differentiated trend. In the short term, the risk of a decline in treasury bonds was limited, and the market was expected to enter an oscillation phase waiting for fundamental guidance. It was recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital market dynamics [5][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The poor demand for US and Japanese treasury bonds led to a chain reaction, and the inflow of safe - haven funds pushed up the prices of gold and silver. Gold had long - term upward drivers, and the demand from global central banks and financial institutions still supported the price. Silver followed gold's upward trend, and if it broke through the previous high resistance, the price might rise further. It was recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options and take profit opportunistically [9][10][12]. Container Shipping Index - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The spot prices of major shipping companies were reported, and the relevant indices showed a decline in the European line index and an increase in the US - West line index. The overall container shipping market had an increase in supply and showed a complex demand situation. The futures market was expected to show an oscillating upward trend, and it was recommended to go long on the June and August contracts on dips [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The social inventory increased, and the price was expected to oscillate in the short term. The "strong reality + weak expectation" combination limited the downward and upward space of copper prices. It was recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: Downstream enterprises replenished stocks at low prices, and the social inventory decreased again. In the short term, the price might be supported by the easing of tariffs, but in the long term, it was in a supply - side loosening cycle. It was recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23500 [18][20][21]. - **Tin**: The strong reality boosted the tin price, but considering the supply - side repair and weak demand expectations, it was recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies in the range of 265000 - 270000 [21][23][24]. - **Nickel**: The market showed narrow - range oscillations, with stable supply and demand. The cost provided support below, but the medium - term supply was expected to be loose, restricting the upward space. The main contract was expected to oscillate in the range of 122000 - 128000 [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market had narrow - range oscillations, with cost support but still facing supply - demand contradictions. The main contract was expected to oscillate in the range of 12600 - 13200 [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by news, the futures price rose slightly, but the fundamentals remained unchanged. The supply pressure was still high, and the demand was relatively flat. The inventory was high, putting pressure on the market. It was expected to run weakly in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 5.8 - 6.2 million [30][32][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand and inventory of cold - rolled steel products deteriorated. The supply showed a downward trend, and the demand was expected to face seasonal off - peak and weakening manufacturing demand. The price was expected to oscillate at a low level, and it was recommended to wait and see [34][35][37]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipping volume of iron ore increased, and the domestic arrival volume decreased. With the increase in steel mill maintenance, the iron ore supply was expected to increase, and the demand might decline slightly. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [38][39]. - **Coke**: The mainstream steel mills initiated a new round of coke price cuts. The supply increased, and the demand showed signs of peaking and falling. It was recommended to short - sell the 2509 contract on rallies and hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short - selling coke [41][42]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction weakened again, and the coal price might enter a bottom - seeking stage. The supply was high, and the demand was expected to decline. It was recommended to short - sell the 2509 contract on rallies and hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short - selling coking coal [43][44][45]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the cost remained stable. The price was expected to oscillate [46][47][48]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure of manganese ore still existed, and it was waiting for the steel procurement pricing. The price was expected to oscillate at a low level [49][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The market speculated on the weather in Argentina, and both domestic and foreign markets were strong. The supply pressure from Brazil was being realized, and the domestic supply was expected to recover. The support for soybean meal around 2900 was strengthening [52][53][55]. - **Live Pigs**: The number of pig sales increased, and the short - term spot and futures prices oscillated weakly. The supply - demand relationship changed little, and the price was expected to remain in an oscillating pattern [56][57][58]. - **Corn**: The short - term market supply was stable, and corn prices oscillated narrowly. In the long term, the supply would tighten, and the price was expected to be strong. It was recommended to go long on dips [59][60]. - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar oscillated weakly, and the domestic price followed. The Brazilian sugar production was expected to be abundant in the 25/26 season, and the domestic sugar supply was loose. The price was expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 5750 - 5900, and it was recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies [61][62].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing downward pressure due to multiple factors, including monetary policy changes, supply chain dynamics, and weakening demand [1] Supply Side - As of May 19, the current treatment charge (TC) is -43.03 USD/thousand tons, and the current refining charge (RC) is -4.30 cents/pound, indicating an expansion of negative processing fees [1] - Significant amounts of scrap copper are expected to continue entering the domestic market [1] - In April 2025, China imported 300,200 tons of refined copper, a year-on-year decrease of 1.83%, while exports reached 53,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 216.38% [1] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory rebounded from low levels during the week, while U.S. copper inventories increased significantly [1] Demand Side - Downstream demand is showing marginal weakness, with social inventory rebounding and terminal momentum weakening [1] - As of March 2025, apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1,372,400 tons, an increase of 93,800 tons, or 7.34% [1] - May marks the beginning of the demand off-season, with expected reductions in apparent consumption [1] - Cumulative sales of passenger vehicles from January to April 2025 reached 6.872 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [1] Market Outlook - Overall market expectations are uncertain, with copper prices under pressure due to weakening demand fundamentals, low social inventory, and tight supply expectations [1] - Despite domestic policy measures providing some support, the market remains in a state of strong expectations but weak realities [1] - Continuous monitoring of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probabilities and U.S.-China tariff policies is necessary [1]

| t产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年5月21日 | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | 现值 | | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解误 | 124575 | 125000 | -425 | -0.34% | 元/吨 | | 1#多川镇 | 125525 | 125950 | -425 | -0.34% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2150 | 2100 | 50 | 2.38% | 元/肥 | | 1#进口键 | 123575 | 124050 | -475 | -0.38% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镍升贴水 | 200 | 200 | 0 | - | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -202 | -194 | -8 | 4.18% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -2726 | -3910 | 1184 | -30.28% | 元/吨 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views Methanol - Port inventory inflection point appears, import increment expectation exerts pressure, and the increasing inventory pressure leads to a significant weakening of the basis. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate downward in the short term, with a target range of 2050 - 2100. The 69 reverse spread can be reduced at low levels [1]. Urea - The upstream new order shipment situation is fair, and most urea factories still have pre - received orders to be delivered, but the market sentiment is cautious. The trading logic of the urea market lies in the demand side, mainly the start - up rhythm of domestic agricultural demand. If there is concentrated procurement at the beginning of June, it may support the short - term price. It is recommended to wait and observe in the short - term [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, in the short term, the supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. The alumina industry has a resumption expectation, and the increase in the purchase price of Shandong mainstream factories is the main driving force for the spot price increase. The futures price may rise further, but there are risks. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and aggressive investors can try a positive spread. For PVC, the short - term rebound is due to macro - stimulation and supply - demand support, but there is an over - supply pressure in the medium - to - long - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper resistance of the 09 contract around 5100 [7][8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term supply - demand is good, but it is under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low levels around 6600. - PTA: There is an expectation of supply - demand turning weak, and it is recommended to go long at low levels around 4600 and pay attention to reverse spread opportunities. - MEG: Expected to destock in May - June, but the upward space is restricted. It is recommended to wait and observe unilaterally and go for a positive spread at low levels for the 9 - 1 spread. - Short - fiber: The raw material price is under pressure, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin at a low level. - Bottle - chip: The supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing margin at the lower limit of the range [12]. Polyolefin - LLDPE: Before early June, maintenance increases, imports are low, demand improves in the short - term, and inventory is expected to decrease. - PP: The maintenance reaches a peak in late May, supply pressure increases later, demand has short - term benefits but mid - term concerns. It is recommended to go short at high levels unilaterally, and the LP spread is expected to expand [32]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical risks, macro and fundamental factors are in a stalemate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate within a range. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy, and consider buying volatility for options [35]. Styrene - The recent rebound is based on demand expectation correction and low - inventory support, but the price shows weakness. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the EB - BZ spread widening [41]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: Most methanol futures and spot prices declined on May 20 compared to May 19, with significant changes in some spreads such as MA2505 - 2509 and MA2501 - 2505 [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 11.14%, while Zhongchun Port inventory decreased by 13.88%. The weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 changed, with the domestic enterprise开工率 slightly decreasing, and the external - procurement MTO device开工率 increasing by 12.67% [1]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: Futures prices showed different changes, and most spot prices declined slightly. Some spreads and basis also changed [3]. - **Position and Production Cost**: The long - position and short - position of the top 20 changed, and the production cost of some raw materials remained stable [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days showed different changes [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices changed, with some spreads and basis showing significant fluctuations [7]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: Overseas quotations and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed, with a significant decline in the export profit of PVC [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries changed, and the inventory of PVC and caustic soda decreased [7][8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: Prices of upstream and downstream products in the polyester industry chain changed, and there were also changes in various spreads such as PX - related, PTA - related, and MEG - related spreads [12]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of various industries in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester, showed different changes [12]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP changed, and some spreads and basis also changed [32]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP inventory showed different trends, and the开工率 of upstream and downstream industries changed [32]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Crude oil prices and spreads, including Brent, WTI, and SC, changed on May 21 compared to May 20 [35]. - **Refined Oil**: Refined oil prices, spreads, and cracking spreads also changed [35]. Styrene - **Upstream Price**: Prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and pure benzene changed [38]. - **Spot and Futures**: Styrene spot and futures prices declined, and the basis and monthly spread changed [39]. - **Overseas Quotation and Import Profit**: Overseas quotations of styrene declined, and the import profit data was incomplete [40]. - **开工率 and Profit**: The开工率 and profit of the styrene industry chain changed, with significant increases in the integrated and non - integrated profits of styrene [41]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene, styrene, and related products changed, with most showing a decreasing trend [41].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **LLDPE & PP**: The overall trading was weak on Monday, and market sentiment deteriorated. For plastics, maintenance increased and some production shifted before early June, with low imports. Demand improved in the short - term due to tariff cuts, and there was an expectation of inventory reduction. For PP, the maintenance peak was in late May, and subsequent supply pressure would increase. Demand had short - term benefits but mid - term concerns. The static fundamentals were okay. For single - side trading, it was advisable to go short on rallies, and the LP spread was expected to widen [4]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, in the short - term, supply pressure was limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand was supported by the potential resumption of some alumina production and new production lines. The purchase price of mainstream Shandong factories increased, and the futures price might rise further, but there were risks. It was recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors could try positive spreads cautiously. For PVC, the short - term rebound was supported by macro - stimulation, export, and supply - demand factors, but there was an over - supply pressure in the long - term. It was expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with a resistance level of around 5100 for the 09 contract [26]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, short - term supply was tight, and demand was supported, but the upside was limited. PX09 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000, and PX9 - 1 was in a short - term positive spread situation. For PTA, the supply - demand situation was expected to weaken. TA09 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 4600 - 5000, and TA9 - 1 was short - term positive spread and medium - term negative spread. For MEG, there was an expectation of inventory reduction, and short - term support was strong. It was advisable to sell put options on EG2509 - P - 4300 and go for positive spreads on EG9 - 1. For short - fiber, the absolute price was expected to adjust, and attention could be paid to the opportunity to widen the processing margin. For bottle - chips, the absolute price followed the raw materials, and attention could be paid to the opportunity to widen the processing margin at the lower end of the range [30]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices were oscillating, and the future logic would shift from macro to fundamental factors. If OPEC's actual production increase was as expected, the market would be under pressure; otherwise, the pressure would be relieved. There was still a short - term geopolitical premium. Oil prices were likely to fluctuate within a certain range. The recommended trading strategy was a band - trading approach, with the WTI range at [59, 69], Brent at [61, 71], and SC at [450, 510]. It was advisable to buy volatility in options trading [34]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory showed an inflection point, and the expected increase in imports would lead to inventory accumulation and a weaker basis. The 09 contract was expected to decline in the short - term, and it was advisable to add positions at 2350, targeting 2050 - 2100. It was also advisable to reduce short - positions on the 69 reverse spread [37]. - **Styrene**: Styrene rebounded strongly. Tariff cuts improved demand expectations, and the inventory was at a low level. However, there were risks, including high inventory in the 3S products and weak pure - benzene supply - demand. It was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - term. Attention could be paid to the resistance level of 7800 - 7900 for the near - month contract, and the opportunity for the EB - BZ spread to widen [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PE & PP Price and Spread - **PE Futures**: L2505 closed at 7330 on May 19, down 190 (- 2.53%) from May 16; L2509 closed at 7238, up 2 (0.03%) [1]. - **PP Futures**: PP2505 closed at 7137 on May 19, down 111 (- 1.53%) from May 16; PP2509 closed at 7078, down 15 (- 0.21%) [1]. - **Spreads**: L2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 192 (- 67.61%) to 92; PP2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 96 (- 61.94%) to 59 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: East China PP拉丝 spot price was 7160 on May 19, down 10 (- 0.14%); North China LLDPE film material spot price was 7300, unchanged [1]. 3.2 PE & PP Upstream and Downstream开工率 and库存 - **PE开工率**: PE device开工率 was 79.5% on May 16, down 4.55 (- 5.41%) from the previous value; PE downstream weighted开工率 was 39.3%, up 0.57 (1.47%) [2]. - **PE库存**: PE enterprise inventory was 52.8 million tons on May 16, down 4.76 (- 8.27%) from the previous value; PE social inventory was 61.1 million tons, down 0.71 (- 1.15%) [2]. - **PP开工率**: PP device开工率 was 76.6% on May 16, down 3.19 (- 4.0%) from the previous value; PP downstream weighted开工率 was 49.8%, up 0.33 (0.7%) [3]. - **PP库存**: PP enterprise inventory was 60.4 million tons on May 16, down 7.20 (- 10.64%) from the previous value; PP trader inventory was 15.9 million tons, up 1.61 (11.28%) [3]. 3.3 PVC & Caustic Soda Price and Spread - **Caustic Soda**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2625 on May 19, up 31.3 (1.2%); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2800, up 40.0 (1.4%) [25]. - **PVC**: East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4840 on May 19, unchanged; East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 5050, unchanged [25]. - **Futures**: SH2505 was 2563 on May 19, up 36.0 (1.4%); SH2509 was 2586, up 51.0 (2.0%); V2505 was 4834, up 14.0 (0.3%); V2509 was 4959, up 12.0 (0.2%) [25]. 3.4 PVC & Caustic Soda Supply, Demand and库存 - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 85.8% on May 16, down 1.7 (- 1.9%); PVC total开工率 was 74.0%, down 3.8 (- 4.9%) [25]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry开工率 was 77.0% on May 16, down 2.7 (- 3.3%); viscose staple fiber industry开工率 was 80.7%, down 0.3 (- 0.4%); printing and dyeing industry开机率 was 63.2%, up 2.6 (4.2%) [25][26]. - **库存**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.4 million tons on May 15, up 0.1 (0.3%); PVC upstream factory inventory was 40.6 million tons, down 2.0 (- 4.7%); PVC total social inventory was 39.7 million tons, down 1.3 (- 3.1%) [26]. 3.5 Polyester Industry Chain Price and Spread - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) was 65.54 on May 16, up 0.13 (0.2%); WTI crude oil (June) was 62.69, up 0.3% [30]. - **Downstream Polyester Products**: POY150/48 price was 7025 on May 16, down 25 (- 0.4%); FDY150/96 price was 7310, unchanged [30]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX was 841 on May 19, up 2 (0.2%); PX spot price (RMB) was 6971, down 66 (- 0.9%) [30]. 3.6 Polyester Industry Chain开工率 and库存 - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 67.5% on May 16, down 3.3 (- 4.7%); China PX开工率 was 74.1%, down 4.5 (- 5.7%); PTA开工率 was 73.0%, up 3.9% [30]. - **库存**: MEG port inventory was 75.1 million tons on May 19, down 0.8 (- 1.1%); MEG to - port expectation was 10.9 million tons, up 5.4 [30]. 3.7 Crude Oil Price and Spread - **Crude Oil**: Brent was 65.54 on May 20, up 0.13 (0.20%) from May 19; WTI was 62.75, up 0.06 (0.10%) [34]. - **Spreads**: Brent M1 - M3 was 1.30 on May 20, up 0.18 (16.07%); WTI M1 - M3 was 1.20, unchanged; SC M1 - M3 was 3.00, down 1.20 (- 28.57%) [34]. 3.8 Crude Oil Product Price and Spread - **Prices**: NYM RBOB was 214.07 on May 20, up 0.19 (0.09%) from May 19; NYM ULSD was 213.04, up 0.27 (0.13%); ICE Gasoil was 617.25, down 1.75 (- 0.28%) [34]. - **Spreads**: RBOB M1 - M3 was 7.87 on May 20, down 0.14 (- 1.75%); ULSD M1 - M3 was 5.00, unchanged; Gasoil M1 - M3 was 9.00, up 1.00 (12.50%) [34]. 3.9 Methanol Price and Spread - **Futures**: MA2505 closed at 2300 on May 19, down 53 (- 2.25%) from May 16; MA2509 closed at 2272, down 12 (- 0.53%) [37]. - **Spreads**: MA2505 - 2509 spread was 28 on May 19, down 41 (- 59.42%) from May 16 [37]. - **Spot Prices**: Inner Mongolia northern line spot price was 2073 on May 19, down 58 (- 2.70%); Henan Luoyang spot price was 2210, down 20 (- 0.90%); Port Taicang spot price was 2340, down 33 (- 1.37%) [37]. 3.10 Methanol库存 and开工率 - **库存**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 33.777% on May 16, up 3.4 (11.14%) from the previous value; Methanol port inventory was 48.4 million tons, down 7.8 (- 13.88%) [37]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 75.5% on May 16, down 0.2 (- 0.20%); Downstream external - procurement MTO device开工率 was 75.68%, up 8.5 (12.67%) [37]. 3.11 Styrene Price and Spread - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil (June) was 65.5 on May 19, up 0.1 (0.2%); CFR Japan naphtha was 569.0, up 4.0 (0.7%) [39]. - **Spot & Futures**: Styrene East China spot price was 8025 on May 19, up 75.0 (0.9%); EB2506 was 7779.0, up 118.0 (1.5%); EB2507 was 7613.0, up 109.0 (1.5%) [40]. - **Import & Profit**: Styrene CFR China was 946.0 on May 19, up 14.0 (1.5%); Styrene import profit was 96.6, up 106.5 (1079.4%) [41]. 3.12 Styrene产业链开工率 and库存 - **开工率**: Domestic pure - benzene comprehensive开工率 was 70.7% on May 16, down 2.6 (- 3.5%); Styrene开工率 was 71.3%, down 0.9 (- 1.3%) [42]. - **库存**: Pure - benzene port inventory was 12.3 on May 15, up 0.3 (2.5%); Styrene port inventory was 9.3, down 0.5 (- 4.9%) [42].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply and demand are both decreasing, and the inventory accumulation situation persists. The long - term supply pattern is in surplus, and the demand is difficult to increase. The supply at the low level in the market is maintained for a short time, and the futures price lacks the power to rise continuously. The supply - demand contradiction will become prominent again, and the price will enter the downward channel again, with the futures market likely to show a weak and fluctuating trend [8]. - For glass, the overall profit in the float glass production field has increased slightly, and the production volume remains relatively stable. The demand market is relatively dull, and the downstream inventory has accumulated. The futures price is approaching the production cost line, and the cost support may appear in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rush - exporting, which brings some support to the market, but the supply - demand game is still the key factor for the subsequent trend [9][10]. Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data on May 19th**: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 opened low and went lower, with a closing price of 1,284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton, and a decline of 1.91%, and an increase of 116,309 lots in positions. The FG509 glass futures contract closed at 1,018 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.19%, and a decrease of 54,017 lots in positions [7]. - **Soda Ash Situation**: The weekly output of soda ash in China dropped to 677,700 tons in the week of May 15th, a month - on - month decrease of 8.52%, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 80.27%. The enterprise inventory of heavy soda ash was 880,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The market supply is in a long - term surplus pattern, and the demand is difficult to increase, so the price will likely decline [8]. - **Glass Situation**: The overall profit in the float glass production field has increased slightly, and the production volume remains stable. The demand market is dull, and the downstream inventory has accumulated. The futures price is approaching the cost line, and the cost support may appear in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rush - exporting, which brings some support to the market [9][10]. 2. Industry News - **Real Estate**: In April, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was flat month - on - month, down 2.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month. The sales price of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, down 3.2% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month [11]. - **Manufacturing Loans**: From January to April, the Export - Import Bank of China invested more than 180 billion yuan in medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and the balance of medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry at the end of April was 1.8 trillion yuan [11]. - **Sodium Bicarbonate Market**: The sodium bicarbonate market in Henan is running weakly, and the downstream makes rigid demand purchases. The mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade sodium bicarbonate is estimated to be between 1,180 - 1,260 yuan/ton [11]. - **Float Glass Market**: The prices of the domestic float glass market are mainly stable, with some fluctuations. The prices in North China have fluctuated, the prices in East China have decreased in some areas, the prices of colored glass in Central China have increased in some factories, the prices in South China are stable, the prices in Northeast China have decreased, and the prices in Southwest China have fluctuated [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, the weekly output and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the production volume of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [17][18][16].