Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant trading volume of over 2.5 trillion, an increase of over 800 billion compared to the previous day, indicating a shift in capital direction [1][5] - The major indices showed minimal movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.09% [3] Sector Performance - The metals sector, particularly precious metals and copper, saw notable gains, with stocks like Hunan Silver and Northern Copper reaching their daily limit up [3] - The storage chip sector also gained traction, with stocks such as Beijing Junzheng and Xiangnong Chip rising over 10%, reflecting renewed interest in the semiconductor industry's recovery [3] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector was active, with companies like Rongsheng Development and Huaxia Happiness hitting their daily limit up, driven by recent policy changes and stabilization in some companies' operations [4] - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and core assets, as potential policy support could enhance long-term value in this sector [4] Other Sectors - The banking and liquor sectors faced adjustments, with banks like Pudong Development Bank dropping over 3% and liquor stocks experiencing a pullback after initial gains [4] - The banking sector is influenced by macroeconomic conditions and interest rate spreads, while the liquor sector's performance is tied to consumer recovery [4] Investment Strategy - The significant trading volume indicates a reallocation of funds across different sectors, suggesting a need for investors to focus on sectors with strong industrial logic and policy support [5] - It is advised to monitor the fundamental health of sectors experiencing declines, as short-term fluctuations may present opportunities for long-term investment [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: A-Shares in China - **Current Sentiment**: Investor sentiment in the A-share market has cooled, with a notable decrease in trading volume and turnover across various segments [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investor Sentiment**: The Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) has dropped, with weighted and simple MSASI decreasing by 14 percentage points and 16 percentage points to 112% and 106%, respectively [2][7]. - **Trading Volume**: Daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, equity futures, and Northbound trading fell by 14% (to RMB 568 billion), 16% (to RMB 1,982 billion), 28% (to RMB 404 billion), and 21% (to RMB 132 billion), respectively [2]. - **Earnings Estimates**: The breadth of consensus earnings estimate revisions remains negative but has shown slight improvement compared to the previous week [2][5]. - **Macro Data**: August inflation showed some improvement, primarily driven by consumer goods trade-in, but food prices remain a drag on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [4][5]. - **Export Performance**: August exports were resilient despite missing market expectations, attributed to competitive supply chains and a weaker trade-weighted RMB. However, exports are expected to moderate in the second half of the year [5]. Important Developments - **Net Inflows**: Southbound trading recorded net inflows of USD 5.2 billion from September 4-10, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching USD 133.4 billion and USD 8.7 billion, respectively [3]. - **Policy Initiatives**: China is preparing to address a significant backlog of unpaid bills owed by local governments to the private sector, amounting to USD 1 trillion [5]. - **Geopolitical Monitoring**: Ongoing monitoring of geopolitical developments, particularly between the US and China, is crucial for understanding potential market impacts [15]. Additional Noteworthy Points - **Investor Behavior**: Investors appear to be taking profits and awaiting clearer signals regarding macroeconomic conditions, policy changes, and corporate fundamentals [5]. - **Earnings Deterioration**: A-shares have shown some moderated deterioration in earnings as the second quarter results season concludes [5]. - **MSASI Methodology**: The MSASI is based on nine metrics that gauge onshore sentiment, including margin transactions, new investor registrations, and A-share turnover [16][17][23]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the A-share market, investor sentiment, macroeconomic indicators, and significant policy developments.

每经编辑｜彭水萍 从我们的分析框架出发，我们认为利率债定价的核心叫做"三个面"：长期基本面、中期政策面、短期技术面。 我们研判的观点概括起来叫"上有顶、下有底"，并且以波段操作思路为主。宏观经济的现实还没有看到明显改善，甚至金融数据再度不及预期，都对债市 有支撑，十年国债的利率较难进一步上行，之前观察到在1.8%左右也会有配置盘买入。但是从资金面和政策面的角度看，本身银行的资金成本也比较 高，逆回购在1.4%左右的水平，同业存单在1.6%的水平，那如果资金成本没有下降的话，十年国债的利率也很难向下突破。那么在这样的窄幅震荡行情 中，博弈属性相对较强，所以市场上近期对技术层面的分析也有了更高的热度。 具体解释一下我们的结论，首先我们认为目前的宏观现实仍然对利率债有支撑的。在基本面角度，利率的主要定价因素就是经济增长与通胀，经济增长定 的是实际利率，那么加上通胀就是名义利率。但是在我们国家通胀并不是一个很独立的因素，往往说经济需求强，经济活动活跃，物价就会跟着上涨，所 以通胀说到底还是一个经济增长的问题，而且是内需驱动下的经济增长问题。 我们认为，经济增长的前瞻指标还是要去看金融的量价指标，量的层面就是社会融资的 ...

Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes the need for increased consumption and investment to achieve first-world living standards in China, as highlighted by economist Gu Zhaoming [1][4] - The article discusses two main drivers of economic growth: consumption-driven growth and borrowing for investment, both of which remain crucial today [2][4] - It points out the stark contrast between China's production growth and low consumption levels, with consumer spending as a percentage of GDP remaining below 40% compared to the U.S. at 67.9% [5][6] Group 2 - The article notes that high savings rates in China, exceeding 20%, hinder consumer spending and consequently reduce corporate willingness to invest [5][6] - It argues that the development of the service sector is essential for balancing the economy, as service consumption in China is significantly lower than in the U.S. [8][9] - The need for a shift in labor market policies to support service industry growth and reduce working hours is emphasized as a prerequisite for economic balance [9][10] Group 3 - The article suggests that increased consumption will lead to a positive feedback loop, encouraging businesses to invest and borrow more, ultimately benefiting the economy [11][13] - It draws parallels with Germany's economic model, where a strong service sector supports income distribution and reduces social inequality [10][14] - The potential for China's economy to evolve into a model where consumption matches that of Germany and investment mirrors that of the U.S. is highlighted, contingent on effective use of technology and consumer stimulation [14][15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - In the short term, interest rate cuts boost the financial attribute of copper, lifting the bottom center of copper prices. However, without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upside space is also limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and copper prices will at least fluctuate. To enter a new upward cycle, the commodity and financial attributes of copper need to resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. For aluminum, the macro - environment provides support, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. The price is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the spot price is expected to remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further narrow. The reference operating range for the main contract this week is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate. To continue to rebound upwards, there needs to be an unexpected improvement in demand and a continuous improvement in interest rate cut expectations under non - recession conditions. To break through downwards, the TC needs to strengthen unexpectedly and refined zinc needs to continuously accumulate inventory. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply remains tight, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery falls short of expectations, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - Macro - environment is generally stable, with some cost support in the short term. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking pace has slowed down. The price decline space is limited, and the medium - term supply is still abundant, restricting the upside space. The main contract is expected to adjust within the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Raw material prices are firm, providing cost support, and inventory pressure has eased. However, the peak - season demand has not been significantly released, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [14][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The resumption of production expectations affect market sentiment, and strong demand provides support for the price floor. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the performance of the 72,000 - yuan pressure level for the main contract [19]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,745 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 104 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109.58 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 1,302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,090 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2,532 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price was 270,100 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 16,422.39 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,365.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,550 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The futures import profit and loss was - 1,805 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price was 12,700 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 68.83 million tons, a decrease of 3.14% from the previous week [1]. - **Aluminum**: In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% from the previous month. The aluminum profile开工率 was 53.00%, an increase of 1.92% from the previous week [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous month. The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 was 53.41%, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous week [5]. - **Zinc**: In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% from the previous month. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 15.21 million tons, an increase of 3.96% from the previous week [8]. - **Tin**: In July, domestic tin ore imports decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.74% week - on - week [11]. - **Nickel**: Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous month. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.87% week - on - week [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 4.72% week - on - week [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, an increase of 4.55% from the previous month. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 3.75% month - on - month [19].

2025 年 09 月 10 日 宏观经济点评 宏 观 经 济 点 开 源 证 券 证 券 相关研究报告 PPI 同比增速回升或因输入性与地产链基数回落 《非美地区需求或仍锚定美国需求— 宏观经济点评》-2025.9.9 《国债买卖或重启，服务消费有望加 码—宏观周报》-2025.9.7 《 就业降温明显，但 50bp 降息尚需 通胀配合—美国 8 月非农就业数据点 评》-2025.9.6 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） | hening@kysec.cn | | | guoxiaobin@kysec.cn | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | | | 证书编号：S0790525070004 | | | 事件：8 月 | CPI | 同比-0.4%，预期-0.2%，前值 | 0%；PPI | 同比-2.9%，预期-2.9%， | 核心 CPI 环比连续五个月超季节性 8 月 CPI 同比较前值下降 0.4 个百分点至-0.4%；环比较前值下降 0.4 个百分点 至 0%。 1、鲜菜价格带动食品 CPI 环比回升 8 月 CPI ...

Macroeconomic Overview - In August 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the previous month's figure revised up to 79,000 [1] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3% [1] - Hourly wage growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1] - The U.S. manufacturing and services sectors continue to show divergent trends, with manufacturing contracting and services expanding [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for August recorded 48.7, below the expected 49, while the ISM non-manufacturing index was at 52, exceeding both expectations and the previous value [1] - The ADP employment data for August showed a significant decline, with only 54,000 jobs added, falling short of the expected 68,000 and the previous 104,000 [1] Index Performance - For the week of September 1-5, the S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 2.51%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index rose by 1.01% and the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.33% [2][3] - Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, five sectors saw gains, with communication equipment leading at 5.07%, while energy was the worst performer, declining by 3.52% [2][3] Investment Direction - The disappointing non-farm payroll data has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in a surge in gold prices and volatility in U.S. equities [4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have significantly risen, with projections indicating a potential cut starting in September [4] - The upcoming U.S. PPI and CPI data will be closely monitored as inflationary pressures remain concentrated in the fourth quarter [4] - The Bosera S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a cost-effective investment tool for domestic investors to capture U.S. equity growth [4] - The S&P 500 Index is recognized as a benchmark for U.S. equities, covering over 500 representative companies across 11 sectors, accounting for approximately 80% of the total market capitalization [4] Nasdaq 100 ETF - The Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, with a significant allocation of 57.87% in the information technology sector [5] - The index includes high-quality technology companies, providing exposure to various sectors such as consumer services, consumer goods, and healthcare [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic indicators for August, highlighting a year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) decrease of 0.4% and a Producer Price Index (PPI) decrease of 2.9%, which aligns closely with the company's predictions. The article emphasizes the impact of base effects on these indices and suggests a slight improvement in the economic outlook for September and beyond [1][5][19]. Summary by Sections CPI and PPI Analysis - August CPI decreased by 0.4%, lower than the predicted -0.13%, while PPI decreased by 2.9%, closely matching the forecast of -2.96%. The simulated deflation index based on CPI and PPI is approximately -1.40%, similar to the previous value of -1.44% [1][5]. - The article notes that August experienced significant base pressure for CPI and PPI, indicating a collision of the highest CPI base pressure and the largest PPI base advantage of the year [1][6]. Monthly Trends - Both CPI and PPI remained flat month-on-month in August, showing slight improvement compared to previous periods. Notably, PPI components marked the first month of positive growth in 2023, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose to a new high of 0.9% year-on-year [1][8][19]. - The non-food CPI segment showed weaker month-on-month performance compared to July, primarily due to the price rhythm of durable goods. Despite this, household appliances still saw a month-on-month increase of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [13][14]. PPI Component Insights - The article highlights a clear stabilization in upstream prices, with mining and raw materials showing significant month-on-month positive changes. Key industries such as coal mining and black metal smelting transitioned from negative to positive growth [16][17]. - The automotive manufacturing sector continued to experience a decline of 0.3% month-on-month, primarily attributed to traditional fuel vehicles, while prices for photovoltaic equipment and new energy vehicles showed reduced year-on-year declines [16][17]. Policy Implications - The article suggests that the rising price indicators in the PMI over three consecutive months indicate initial effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policies. The PPI data for August supports this conclusion, with a clear policy direction aimed at consolidating competitive restructuring in key industries [3][19]. - Looking ahead, the company forecasts that September's CPI and PPI will benefit from favorable base effects, projecting a year-on-year CPI increase of 0.15% and a PPI decrease of 2.55%, indicating potential improvements in deflationary pressures [19][20]. Market Dynamics - The article discusses the transition from liquidity-driven asset pricing to profit-driven phases, contingent on actual and nominal growth recovery. The construction industry and PPI are identified as critical indicators for this transition [4][20].

Supply - The average operating rate of 247 sample blast furnaces nationwide decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 81.8%, which is 4.8 and 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 and 2019, respectively[2] - The average operating rate of coking enterprises fell by 1.8 percentage points to 68.4%, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than 2024 but 4.1 percentage points lower than 2019[2] - The average operating rate of cement grinding fell by 2.3 percentage points to 40.3%, marking a new low compared to the same period in recent years, and is 10.1 and 27.4 percentage points lower than 2024 and 2019, respectively[2] Demand - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 11.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%[5] - The average sales area of second-hand homes in 18 cities decreased by 4.5% month-on-month but saw a year-on-year increase of 20.3%[5] - The apparent demand for steel increased by 0.1% to approximately 842.8 million tons, but the absolute value is the lowest in recent years, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6%[4] Prices - The South China Index decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase narrowing to 4.0%[7] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.9% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 12.4%[7] - Pork prices fell by 1.1% to approximately 19.9 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year decline expanding to 27.3%[7] Inventory - Coastal power plants' coal inventory decreased by 1.5% month-on-month, but the absolute value remains high, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2%[8] - Steel and electrolytic aluminum inventories increased by 4.7% and 6.0% month-on-month, respectively, with both being at near historical lows[8] - Asphalt inventory decreased by 7.0% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 25.3%[8] Liquidity - The central bank net withdrew 10,086 billion yuan through OMO in the past half month, indicating a tightening of liquidity[10] - The issuance of local special bonds reached 4,449.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 32,819.7 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, achieving 74.6% of the annual target[11]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - After the summer holiday, domestic travel demand has significantly decreased, with subway passenger volume growth at -0.68% year-on-year and -7.25% month-on-month as of September 6[2] - In August, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.952 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a month-on-month increase of 6.4%[2] - Export resilience is noted, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaging 1978.4, down 1.15% month-on-month but up 0.54% year-on-year[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - Production generally declined in the first week of September, with average blast furnace operating rates down 3.09 percentage points to 80.38%[3] - The chemical industry shows a significant downturn, with PTA production and operating rates down 7.76% and 11.71 percentage points respectively, falling below 70% for the first time this year[3] - The construction sector remains sluggish, with rebar operating rates averaging 42.28%, down 1.6 percentage points[3] Price Performance - Pork prices have seen a narrowing decline, while fruit and vegetable prices have risen, with key monitored vegetable prices up 3.47% and fruit prices up 1.28% as of September 5[3] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 0.38% and Brent crude by 1.01% as of September 5, reflecting a general decline in black commodity prices[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, with 820 billion yuan in special bonds and 2.671 trillion yuan in regular bonds issued this week, achieving 70.6% of the annual issuance target[3] - The People's Bank of China is expected to restart government bond purchases, signaling a more accommodative monetary policy[3] International Macro - The U.S. labor market shows significant weakness, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%[1] - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025 is high due to ongoing economic slowdown and policy pressures from the Trump administration[1]