Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二国债期货主力合约多数高开，早盘拉升一波后横盘，午后小幅再上后横向波动， 截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.89%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.26%， | | | | | 5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.17%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.07%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 593 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 1353 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净回笼 760 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周二银行间资金市场隔夜利率维持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.4 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月22日，安利股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司市值受宏观经济、市场情 绪等多重因素综合影响，其表现不以公司主观评价所主导。公司将持续聚焦主业的深耕与拓展，不断提 升核心竞争力与经营质量，努力为广大投资者创造持续稳定的长期价值。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - November economic data shows a slight decline in industrial production, consistent with high base effects and seasonal characteristics[2] - Fixed asset investment saw a limited year-on-year recovery, while real estate investment decline has widened, with prices continuing to drop month-on-month[2] - Consumer retail sales have significantly slowed down, with durable goods demand growth tapering off after an initial surge[2] Group 2: Financial Market Insights - The stock market experienced a volume decline with the average trading volume at 192.6 billion CNY, reflecting a drop in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.89%[8] - Bond market yields decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.75 basis points, indicating a potential short-term recovery opportunity in the market[8] - The central bank's actions, including the resumption of 14-day reverse repos, have contributed to a stable liquidity environment, with expectations of a potential rate cut in January[2] Group 3: International Market Dynamics - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% due to a higher labor participation rate[2] - The U.S. CPI data was significantly below expectations, raising concerns about data quality, yet inflation resilience remains a worry for the market[2] - The Japanese central bank's 25 basis point rate cut aligns with market expectations, leading to a depreciation of the yen, with limited immediate liquidity contagion effects[2]

Economic Growth - In November, the domestic GDP growth rate was approximately 4.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from October, continuing the trend of moderation[1] - To achieve the annual growth target of around 5%, the GDP growth in December needs to rebound to above 5.0%, which is unlikely given the current policy focus on quality improvement rather than short-term growth[1] - The expected GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is about 4.3%, further declining from Q3, with an annual growth estimate of approximately 4.9%, remaining within the target range[1] Sector Performance - The main drag on economic growth in November came from the service sector, with the service production index's year-on-year growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points[2] - The financial sector saw a year-on-year decline of 0.5 percentage points, while the real estate sector's investment and sales figures also worsened, contributing to the pressure on services[2] - Emerging sectors like leasing and business services showed resilience, with growth accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] Consumption and Trade - Consumer activity showed signs of weakening, with logistics delivery volume experiencing its first negative year-on-year growth of -1.3% this year[12] - The average daily box office for movies was approximately 100.4 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186%, driven by the release of popular films[18] - Export container freight rates slightly increased to 1124.73, indicating stable shipping supply and demand relationships[22] Real Estate Market - The price decline in the real estate market continued to expand, with the price index for 70 large and medium-sized cities showing increased year-on-year declines for both new and second-hand homes[48] - Despite seasonal increases in transaction volumes, the absolute levels remain low, marking the worst performance for the same period in recent years[48] - The inventory turnover pressure remains significant, with the sales-to-inventory ratio recorded at 89.1, the highest for the same period since 2019[48]

――宏观经济周报 证券分析师 宏观经济分析报告 5 数据密集披露，等待政策反应 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威[Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 12 月 19 日 就外围环境而言，美国方面，10 月和 11 月非农数据集中披露，前者因政府 雇员大幅减少呈现负增；而后者表面虽有新增，但若真如鲍威尔此前所言 "就业每月高估约 6 万人"，那么实际上也近乎没有增长。令人稍感欣慰的 是私人部门就业相对稳健。从失业率角度看，10 月数据受"政府关门"影 响永久消失，而 11 月数据在劳动参与率走高的情形下出现小幅跳升 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment in 2026 will be influenced by U.S. midterm election pressures, defense demands in Europe and Japan, and China's focus on stable growth, leading to continued policy easing in the first half of the year [2] - The AI boom is expected to enhance efficiency and stock valuations but may also exacerbate job losses and economic K-shaped divergence [2] - The report suggests that the second half of 2026 may see a rebound in inflation due to global liquidity easing, a weaker dollar, and China's anti-involution efforts, potentially causing volatility in high-valuation assets [2] Industry Outlook Chinese Internet Software - 2026 is seen as a critical year for competing for user attention in the AI era, with a focus on lowering usage barriers, enhancing decision-making efficiency, and creating real value [2] - Companies with stable cash flows supporting AI investments and strong operational capabilities are expected to have higher long-term investment value [5] Semiconductor - The report maintains four core investment themes for 2026: AI-driven structural growth, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency trend, high-yield defensive allocations, and industry consolidation [7] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 26% to $975 billion in 2026, with AI-related segments leading the growth [7] Technology - The global tech industry is expected to experience demand differentiation and accelerated AI innovation, with a focus on AI computing infrastructure and end-user AI products [8] - Key companies to watch include Apple, which is anticipated to have a year of innovation with new AI products [8] Consumer Sectors Essential Consumption - The report identifies three main investment themes: deepening consumption stratification, focusing on essential survival needs, and leveraging overseas expansion to hedge against domestic uncertainties [10][20] - Companies in the food and beverage sector, such as Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverages, are recommended due to their stable demand and attractive valuations [21] Discretionary Consumption - The outlook for the discretionary consumption sector is cautious, with expected retail sales growth of about 3.5% in 2026, slightly down from 4% in 2025 [11] - The report suggests a focus on survival-type consumption and low-cost emotional comfort products, with recommendations for companies like Luckin Coffee and Bosideng [11][21] Automotive - The Chinese automotive industry is expected to show resilience despite pressures from subsidy reductions and tax incentives, with retail sales of passenger vehicles projected to remain stable [12] - Key trends include intensified competition and the introduction of new models, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment [12] Pharmaceuticals - The innovative drug sector has seen significant growth driven by overseas licensing deals, but future catalysts are expected to shift from upfront payments to milestone achievements [13] - The CXO industry is anticipated to continue its recovery in 2026, supported by a rebound in domestic R&D demand [13] Real Estate - The report forecasts a continued contraction in the real estate market, with total residential sales expected to decline by 8% in 2026 [16][17] - Investment themes include focusing on stock market service providers and companies with strong operational capabilities in commercial assets [18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend. Different sectors, such as financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals, have their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in financial derivatives, stock index futures are expected to test 3900 again, while treasury bond futures have opportunities despite fluctuations; in agricultural products, the supply - demand situation of various varieties varies, affecting their price trends [5][20][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to test 3900 again. On Thursday, the market showed a sideways shock. The main stock index futures contracts mostly declined, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The market rebound was affected by factors such as the overnight decline of the US stock market, and it is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation trend [18][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There were fluctuations, but opportunities remained. On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, and the market funds were balanced and slightly loose. The central bank's open - market operations and market rumors affected the bond market sentiment. In the short term, the central bank's loose tone remained unchanged, but the long - end repair rhythm might be repeated [22][23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The production outlook was good, and US soybeans continued to be under pressure. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The US soybean export sales decreased, and the Brazilian soybean production was expected to increase. The domestic soybean meal crushing profit was still in deficit, and the overall price was expected to be supported but with limited sustainability [26][27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices dropped sharply. The ICE and London sugar futures prices declined. The Brazilian sugar production increase was basically realized, and the market focus shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The domestic sugar market had increasing supply pressure, but the price had certain support near the cost line [29][30][33] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Palm oil had a technical rebound, and the overall oils were at the bottom - level shock. The overseas palm oil and soybean oil prices had small fluctuations. The Indonesian palm oil inventory decreased, and the domestic soybean oil inventory was gradually decreasing, while the rapeseed oil inventory was expected to continue to decline [35][36] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price declined, and the futures price was at the bottom - level shock. The CBOT corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn processing enterprise inventory increased, and the starch inventory also increased. The Northeast corn price was strong, while the North China corn price was weak [37][38][39] - **Hogs**: The slaughter recovered, and the spot price fluctuated slightly. The hog price was stable in most regions. The short - term slaughter pressure decreased, but the overall supply pressure still existed [39][40][41] - **Peanuts**: The spot price declined, and the futures price had a narrow - range shock. The peanut price was stable in some regions and declined in others. The oil factory's purchase price was adjusted, and the 03 peanut futures price still had a downward space [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: The demand was average, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The main - producing and main - selling area prices were relatively stable. The number of laying hens decreased slightly, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved [45][46][47] - **Apples**: The demand was average, and the apple price was mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed. The apple price was high before, which led to weak demand, and the market was concerned about the January delivery and pre - Spring Festival stocking [49][50][51] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales were good, and the cotton price was shock - upward. The ICE cotton futures price increased. The domestic cotton import and export volume changed, and the new cotton sales progress was fast. The market was affected by factors such as the expected reduction of cotton planting area and the expansion of textile factory capacity [52][53][54] Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material prices stopped falling and stabilized, and the steel price rebounded from the bottom. The steel product supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly. The steel price was affected by factors such as the raw material supply, demand, and export policy, and it was expected to show a shock - upward trend [57][58][59] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices rebounded from the bottom, and the trading logic change needed attention. The Mongolian coking coal market was strong, and the prices of some domestic coking coal increased. The market "anti - involution" sentiment led to the price rebound, and the future supply - demand situation might improve slightly [59][60][61] - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations were repeated, and the ore price was in shock. The domestic crude steel and rebar production decreased, and the iron ore production increased slightly. The global iron ore supply was loose, and the domestic demand was weak. The ore price was expected to have limited upward space [62][63][64] - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the "anti - involution" expectation, the prices rebounded in the short term. The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was expected to decline slightly, and the demand was under pressure. The cost support and "anti - involution" expectation led to the price rebound [64][65][66] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US November CPI was better than expected, but the data was questionable, leading to market fluctuations. The international gold and silver prices fluctuated widely, and the US dollar index and US bond yields changed. The market was in a long - short tug - of - war, and the gold and silver prices were expected to maintain a high - level range [67][68][69] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The trading enthusiasm was over - high, and the risk factors were gradually accumulating. The platinum and palladium futures prices increased significantly, and the trading volume expanded. The macro - environment was favorable, and the news boosted the demand outlook. The platinum was short - term bullish, and the palladium might be affected by the macro - environment [69][70][71] - **Copper**: Buy after a full correction. The copper futures prices increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data affected the market, and the copper supply was expected to be tight in 2026. The long - term price trend was upward, but the short - term might be in shock [74][75][76] - **Alumina**: The price was in a weak shock. The alumina futures price declined, and the spot price decreased slightly. The overseas supply negotiation and domestic inventory situation affected the price. The price was expected to be under pressure after the "anti - involution" expectation subsided [78][79][80] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas economic data was released this week, and the aluminum price rebounded. The electrolytic aluminum futures price increased, and the inventory decreased. The overseas economic data was better than expected, and the domestic demand was resilient. The price was supported [83][84][85] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum supply was still tight, and the alloy price rebounded with the sector. The cast aluminum alloy futures price increased, and the spot price increased. The scrap aluminum supply was tight, and the cost supported the price. The price was expected to maintain a high - level shock [86][87] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the domestic social inventory today. The zinc futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The overseas zinc inventory increased, and the domestic smelting profit was compressed. The price was under pressure from the external market [88][89][90] - **Lead**: Pay attention to the inventory change. The lead futures price increased, and the spot price decreased slightly. The domestic lead supply and demand decreased, and the inventory became more visible. The price was expected to maintain a range shock [91][92][93] - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy expectation stimulated the nickel price rebound, but the surplus suppressed the upward space. The LME nickel price increased, and the inventory decreased. The global nickel was in a surplus situation, but the Indonesian policy adjustment stimulated the price rebound. The price was expected to decline after the short - term rebound [93][94][95] - **Stainless Steel**: Followed the nickel price and weakened in shock. The stainless steel inventory decreased, and the terminal demand was in the off - season. The price was affected by the nickel price and demand, and it was expected to be at a low - level shock [96][97][99] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sell on rallies. The industrial silicon was in a state of inventory accumulation. The demand in the first quarter of 2026 was pessimistic, and the price was expected to decline. It was recommended to sell on rallies [99][100] - **Polysilicon**: Realize the profits of long positions and pay attention to risk management. The polysilicon futures trading rules changed. The downstream demand was relatively pessimistic, and the short - term price was expected to be strong. It was recommended to take profits on long positions and buy after a correction [100][101][103] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The inventory reduction was slower than expected, and the lithium price was under pressure to correct. The lithium carbonate price had a short - term correction, and the inventory reduction was slow. The price was expected to be at a high - level, and it was recommended to operate cautiously [104][105] - **Tin**: Pay attention to the November export data from Myanmar. The tin futures price increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data was questionable, and the domestic tin supply and demand were weak. The price was expected to be affected by the Myanmar export data and market fluctuations [107][108][109] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSK released the price of 2500/2600 for the first week, and pay attention to the January freight rate change path. The spot freight rate increased slightly. The European port congestion was serious, and the demand was expected to improve in December - January. The short - term price was expected to be at a high - level shock, and it was recommended to take partial profits on long positions [110][111][113] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The surplus pressure was difficult to change, and the oil price rebound was limited. The crude oil futures prices increased slightly. The US inflation and employment data changed, and the geopolitical situation was uncertain. The oil price was expected to be in a weak shock in the medium - term [114][115][116] - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand was weak, and the raw material risk remained. The asphalt futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The terminal demand decreased, and the raw material supply was uncertain. The price was expected to be in a narrow - range shock [117][118][119] - **Fuel Oil**: The short - term low - sulfur supply was continuously increasing. The fuel oil futures prices increased slightly. The low - sulfur supply was expected to increase, and the high - sulfur demand was stable and weak. The short - term price was expected to be bearish [120][121][122] - **Natural Gas**: The LNG downward trend remained unchanged. The natural gas futures prices had different changes. The weather affected the demand, and the overall supply was loose. The HH2602 contract long positions were recommended to be held [124][125][126] - **LPG**: The PDH profit continued to be in deficit. The LPG futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The international LPG market was strong, and the PDH profit was in deficit. It was recommended to short the 03 contract on rallies [127][128][129] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales volume increased, and the market atmosphere was boosted. The PX and PTA futures prices increased. The PTA supply was expected to increase slowly, and the downstream polyester demand was high. The price was expected to be shock - upward [131][132] - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene supply - demand was loose, and the styrene basis weakened. The pure benzene and styrene futures prices declined slightly. The pure benzene supply increased and demand decreased, and the styrene supply and demand were also weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [134][135][136] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure remained, and the price was in shock. The ethylene glycol futures price increased slightly. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory had a de - stocking pressure. The short - term price was expected to be in shock and weak in the medium - term [138][139] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand was weak. The short - fiber futures price increased. The short - fiber supply and demand decreased, and the processing fee was under pressure. The price was expected to be shock - upward [140][142] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand was relatively loose. The bottle - chip futures price increased. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was relatively stable. The price was expected to be shock - upward [143][144] - **Propylene**: The demand was poor, and the rebound was weak. The propylene futures price increased first and then decreased. The propylene supply was expected to be high, and the demand was weak. The short - term price was expected to be shock - upward [146][147] - **Plastic PP**: The PE production decreased month - on - month, and the PP production increased month - on - month. The L and PP futures prices declined slightly. The PE and PP supply and demand had different changes. It was recommended to wait and see for the L and PP 2605 contracts [148][150][151] - **Caustic Soda**: The price was in a shock trend. The caustic soda spot price had a small adjustment. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [152][153][154] - **PVC**: The price continued to rebound. The PVC futures price increased, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to continue to rebound [155][156][157] - **Soda Ash**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The soda ash futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The supply was expected to be under pressure in the future, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [157][158][159] - **Glass**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The glass futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The supply was expected to be reduced, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [160][161][163] - **Methanol**: The price rose strongly. The methanol production increased, and the international device operation was affected. The price was expected to be shock - upward [165][166] - **Urea**: The price continued to rise. The urea production decreased slightly, and the international market had an impact. The short - term price was expected to be strong, and the medium - long - term supply - demand was relatively loose [167][168][169] - **Pulp**: The reality was weak, but the expectation was strong. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration and port inventory changes. The pulp futures price declined slightly, and the spot price had a small adjustment. The cost supported the price, but the demand was weak. It was recommended to hold the previous short positions [170][171][173] - **Logs**: The fundamentals were weak, and the futures - spot price was inverted. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration. The log price was stable, and the inventory and arrival volume changed. The price was expected to continue to bottom - out. It was recommended to hold the 03 long positions [173][174][175] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remained, and the high pulp price transmission did not meet expectations. The offset printing paper futures price declined slightly, and the spot price was stable. The production and inventory of double - offset paper and coated paper changed. The price was expected to be bearish [179][180] - **Natural Rubber**: The tire production line decreased month - on - month. The natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The Thai government took measures to stabilize the price, and the domestic tire production decreased. It was recommended to short the RU 05 contract slightly and hold the NR 02 contract long positions [182][183] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BD & BR production decreased marginally, and the tire production decreased month - on - month. The butadiene rubber futures price increased, and the natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The domestic butadiene and tire production decreased. It was recommended to hold the BR 02 contract long positions [186][187][188]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 is projected to finish 2026 around $7,500, indicating an 11.5% price upside from the current level of $6,728, along with a dividend yield of over 1% [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy focuses on deep fundamentals, impactful narratives, and Austrian economics [1] - Long-horizon research emphasizes digital assets, macroeconomic factors, and general value opportunities, while short-horizon research targets options and volatility for income generation and hedging [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The analysis presents a global, long-run macro view as the foundation for investment considerations, suggesting a balanced approach to market conditions [1]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations and upward movement, with notable performance in the aerospace, pharmaceutical, cultural media, and banking sectors, while sectors like consumer electronics, batteries, and securities showed weaker performance [2][3]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently at 15.90 times and 48.80 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][16]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges was 16,770 billion, which is above the median trading volume of the past three years, indicating active market participation [3][16]. - The central economic work conference has set a tone of "more proactive and effective" economic policies for the coming year, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have led to fluctuating expectations regarding future easing [3][16]. - The current macroeconomic environment is in a state of mild recovery, but the foundation still needs to be solidified, supporting the ongoing upward trend in the A-share market [3][16]. - It is anticipated that the Shanghai Composite Index will consolidate around the 4,000-point mark, with cyclical and technology sectors expected to perform alternately [3][16]. - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the pharmaceutical, aerospace, banking, and cultural media sectors [3][16]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On December 18, the A-share market faced resistance after a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,876.37 points, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.29% [7][8]. - Over 60% of stocks in the two markets rose, with significant gains in the pharmaceutical, aerospace, commercial retail, and banking sectors, while sectors like batteries and electronic chemicals saw declines [7][9]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to maintain a consolidation phase around the 4,000-point level, with a focus on macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy directions [3][16]. - Investors are advised to pay close attention to investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical, aerospace, banking, and cultural media sectors in the short term [3][16].