Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates an increase in volatility in international capital markets, with a recommended asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds > currencies [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% this week, while the ten-year government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81% [1][11] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in equities, emphasizing the importance of the implementation of "incremental" policies [2][3] - A cautious stance is recommended for bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, leading to an underweight allocation [2][3] - The report maintains a neutral position on commodities, highlighting the need to monitor fiscal spending in 2026 [2][3] Economic Data Insights - Industrial profits for December showed a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, reversing a previous decline [4][18] - The fiscal revenue for 2025 was reported at 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 1% [4][18] Market Performance - The report notes that the A-share market experienced mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index leading gains while the ChiNext Index saw a decline of 3.78% [36] - In the commodities market, coal futures rose by 2.75%, and iron ore futures increased by 0.13% [1][11] Policy Developments - The report highlights the publication of a significant article by President Xi Jinping on the importance of building a strong financial nation, emphasizing the need for a robust economic foundation and effective financial institutions [4][19] - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, outlining 12 policy measures targeting key sectors [4][20]

Economic Indicators - The Manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is at 49.3%, falling below the expansion threshold of 50.1%[7] - The Production and New Orders PMI are recorded at 50.6% and 49.2% respectively, both showing significant declines from previous levels[7] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 52%, slightly down from 52.5%, but remains near the second-highest level since the implementation of equal tariff policies in April 2025[7] - The construction sector's activity has slowed significantly, with the PMI dropping below 40% due to adverse weather and the upcoming holiday[7] Demand Dynamics - New Orders PMI has seen a year-on-year decline, marking the second-lowest drop for this period, indicating insufficient domestic demand[7] - New Export Orders PMI decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 47.8%, influenced by prior export surges and trade policy adjustments from key partners[7] Price Trends - Major raw material purchase price index and factory price index have risen to 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, indicating a return to expansion after 20 months[7] - Prices in the non-ferrous metal sector are driving overall price increases, while sectors with weak internal demand, like wood processing, show price contraction[7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that geopolitical changes and investment demand in technology will continue to drive global capital expenditure and commodity prices, particularly in non-energy commodities[7] - The ongoing contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand in the domestic market remains a critical issue, with the ability of upstream prices to transmit to downstream still uncertain[7]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In December 2025, national general public budget revenue decreased by 25% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.02%[3] - The total revenue for the national general public budget in 2025 was 216,045 billion yuan, a decline of 1.7% from 2024[3] - The expenditure growth rate for the national general public budget in December 2025 was -1.77%, an improvement from -3.7% previously[6] Tax Revenue Insights - In December 2025, tax revenue was 11,549 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, while the total tax revenue for 2025 grew by 0.8%[3] - Personal income tax showed a significant increase of 11.5% in 2025, indicating strong growth despite overall tax revenue challenges[4] - Non-tax revenue fell by 47.9% in December 2025, primarily due to a high base effect from 2024[3] Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - The broad fiscal budget (general public budget + government fund budget) showed a widening deficit, with December revenue growth slowing more than expenditure growth[2] - The first three accounts showed a surplus of 590 billion yuan, mainly driven by a significant increase in central state-owned capital operating budget revenue, which grew by 25.8%[11] - New policy financial tools and special bonds are expected to support economic growth in Q1 2026, particularly in fixed asset investment and consumption[2] Expenditure Focus - Social security and employment expenditures exceeded 100% of the initial budget, while agricultural and forestry expenditures lagged at 86.7%[7] - Total national general public budget expenditure for 2025 was 287,395 billion yuan, reflecting a 1% increase from 2024[6] - Central government expenditure grew by 5.7%, outpacing local government expenditure growth of 0.2%[6]

逢高止盈 原油周报 2025/01/31 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 20 ...

极目宏观 系列研究 2026 年 1 月 30 日 经济差异的资产表现 — 2026 年 01 月宏观经济与资产月报 宏观策略研发报告 【内容摘要】 美国经济正逐步走出 10 月政府关门的影响，经济数据表现出韧性。这预示 美国经济基本面处于现实需求驱动的状态中。就业稳健和收入上行保证了美国经 济在逐渐摆脱美国政府关门影响后，将呈现逐步上行的状态。短期的不确定是美 元流动性仍处于较为紧张的状态， 在美国现实消费支撑经济，货币政策、政治事件等不确定性频繁的情况下， 美元资产走势也体现出整体向好，波动巨大的特征。美债震荡、信用利差收窄； 美股再试前高，纳指和道指轮涨；实际需求驱动有色等大宗商品价格；美元国际 货币地位弱化导致美元指数下滑。 2025 年国内经济经济增速下行的背后是投资和消费支撑力度的下降以及进 出口支撑力度的延续，经济短期体现出一定的季节性因素。从 2025 年中国经济 表现展望未来，经济增速改善已在体现，但幅度和节奏仍具有一定的短期特征， 短期，倾向于关注政策预期和消费变化，中长期关注广义财政力效果、新质生产 力发展和经济内生动力恢复情况。 对国内经济短期的关注点使得政策引导人民币持续升值预期下， ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 2 月报 宏观 全球货币分化，国内宏观强韧性 核心观点 美国方面，制造业与服务业继续分化，服务业强韧性支撑美国 宏观基本面。通胀表现温和，就业数据也有所修复，美联储降息节 奏放缓，美债收益率有所回升。后续主要关注就业数据的持续改善 情况以及特朗普对美联储的政治施压情况。欧洲方面，欧元区核心 通胀指标与 2%的目标一致，欧洲央行降息节奏放缓，未来需要重点 关注内部欧洲地区薪资增速以及外部贸易与地缘政治局势的情况。 日本方面，随着通胀增速放缓，1 月份日本央行宣布维持政策利率 不变，但上调了中长期通胀预测。不过日本政府的财政扩张政策倾 向以及财政可持续性担忧也在持续推升日债收益率。日本央行加息 放缓很大程度上是为了保持债市稳定，但是相应地日元汇率端将明 显承压，后续需要关注日本官方对日元的干预情况 12 月宏观经济数据呈现较强韧性：制造业 PMI 重回扩张区间， CPI 温和回升，PPI 跌幅收窄，新增企业信贷数据有所改善。不过内 需有效需求不足的问题仍存，具体表现在居民端，新增居民信贷数 据表现较弱。1 月 15 ...

（原标题：阿克拉在非洲最昂贵城市中排名第八） 据"乐在线"1月27日报道，阿克拉在22个非洲城市中位列2026年非洲生活成本第八高城市，生活成本指 数36.6，高于多个北非、东非首都，反映出加纳虽着力稳定宏观经济，仍面临持续的生活成本压力。 榜单中，阿比让以45.2的生活成本指数位居非洲榜首，其次是亚的斯亚贝巴。南非的比勒陀利亚、约翰 内斯堡和开普敦也在榜单高位。从全球来看，阿克拉的生活成本远低于欧美和亚洲的主要城市，但在新 兴经济体中，对于领取当地工资的普通居民来说生活成本仍然很高。在西非，阿克拉的生活成本仅次于 阿比让，阿比让的高物价源于其强劲的国内需求和工业活动，而阿克拉的高物价则更多地与货币贬值、 高度进口依赖以及债务危机后的通胀有关。 阿克拉食品杂货指数达42.4，为非洲最高，超多个大型经济体，食品通胀持续，主因是供应链受阻与汇 率波动；餐饮价格指数39.1，与阿比让、约翰内斯堡持平；租金指数11.4 相对适中，低于基加利、亚的 斯亚贝巴和开普敦，可见住房并非当地支出主因，日常消费和食品相关成本才是家庭的主要负担。此 外，阿克拉购买力指数仅12.7，为非洲购买力最弱的城市之一，而南非相关指数超100 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite facing significant domestic and international pressures, the national economy managed to achieve its development goals in 2025, but it still faces numerous challenges and issues that need to be addressed for sustainable growth in 2026 [2][4][21]. Economic Performance in 2025 - In 2025, the GDP growth rate was 5.0%, maintaining the same level as in 2024, showcasing the economy's resilience amid a complex international environment and persistent domestic downward pressure [5][21]. - The overall public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year, while industrial enterprise profits rose by 0.1%, and per capita disposable income grew by 5.0% [5][21]. Challenges Faced - The main challenges include a slowdown in global economic growth, increased uncertainty, insufficient domestic demand, and weak investment and consumption, which necessitate a focus on expanding domestic demand [3][21][22]. - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2%, with youth unemployment particularly high at 16.9% for ages 16-24 [16][21]. Inflation and Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable, with an overall increase of 0% in 2025, indicating a prolonged period of low inflation, which can enhance purchasing power but may also dampen producer motivation [9][12]. - Core CPI showed a gradual increase, reaching 1.2% by the end of the year, suggesting a potential recovery in economic activity [14][21]. Trade Balance - The international balance of payments for goods and services showed a significant surplus of 52,540 billion yuan, an increase of 20,467 billion yuan from the previous year, indicating strong economic resilience and competitiveness [18][21]. Outlook for 2026 - The article highlights that expanding domestic demand is crucial for maintaining stable economic growth in 2026, with a focus on increasing the resident consumption rate as a primary goal [22][27]. - The challenges of insufficient demand, particularly in consumption and investment, are expected to persist, necessitating targeted policies to stimulate growth [23][24][25]. Strategies for Growth - The government aims to increase the resident consumption rate by 1.0 percentage point in 2026, emphasizing the need for effective policies and reforms to boost consumption, particularly in services like healthcare and entertainment [27][30]. - Improving the quality and supply of healthcare and entertainment services is essential to unlock the potential for increased consumer spending [33][30].

Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint Based on macro - fundamental and technical analyses (including the use of the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average), the report predicts the trends, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 29, 2026, and the trends of continuous contracts in January 2026 [2][4]. Summary by Category 1. Futures Market Forecast - **January 29, 2026 Forecast**: - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold (AU2604) and silver (AG2604) are expected to fluctuate strongly; copper (CU2603) and aluminum (AL2603) are expected to fluctuate and consolidate; alumina (AO2605) is expected to fluctuate strongly; zinc (ZN2603) is expected to fluctuate weakly; nickel (NI2603), tin (SN2603), and lithium carbonate (LC2605) are expected to fluctuate widely; crude oil (SC2603) and fuel oil (FU2603) are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA (TA605), PVC (V2605), and methanol (MA605) are expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - **January 2026 Forecast for Continuous Contracts**: - **Stock Index Futures**: IF, IH, IC, and IM continuous contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly or widely, with specific resistance and support levels provided, and some are expected to reach new highs [4]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium carbonate continuous contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly and reach new highs; alumina is expected to fluctuate widely; zinc and nickel are expected to fluctuate strongly; crude oil is expected to fluctuate strongly and widely [4]. 2. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - China will host the first APEC Senior Officials' Meeting and related meetings in Guangzhou from February 1 to 10, 2026 [5]. - In 2026, China will continue to optimize fertility support policies and incentive measures [5]. - In 2025, China's tax department collected 33.1 trillion yuan in taxes and fees, and tax cuts, fee reductions, and tax refunds exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan. In 2026, tax system reform will be deepened [5]. - By the end of 2025, the total assets of central state - owned enterprises exceeded 95 trillion yuan, with fixed - asset investment of 5.1 trillion yuan and strategic emerging industry investment of 2.5 trillion yuan, and the total profit for the year was 2.5 trillion yuan [5]. - In 2025, the number of China's inbound and outbound travelers reached 697 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.2% [6]. - In 2025, the GDP of Guangdong was 14.58 trillion yuan, Jiangsu was 14.24 trillion yuan, and Shandong was 10.32 trillion yuan [6]. - Nearly 60% of surveyed US - funded enterprises plan to increase investment in China [6]. - On January 28, the gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange exceeded $5,400 per ounce, and the domestic gold futures price approached 1,200 yuan per gram. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors in the A - share market had a daily limit up [6]. - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% [7]. - US President Trump threatened Iran, and Iran's foreign minister said Iran's armed forces were on high alert [8]. - India reported a Nipah virus outbreak, but the WHO said the risk of further spread was low [8]. - The German government lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1% [8]. - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicated the possibility of continued interest rate hikes [8]. - The Bank of Canada maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.25% [8]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - Futures exchanges tightened risk control. The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin and daily limit of the Ag (T + D) contract, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily limit and margin of 10 futures contracts [9]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised the margin requirements for silver, platinum, and palladium [9]. - International precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 6.46% to $5,411 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 10.06% to $116.62 per ounce [9]. - US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures rose. Trump's warning to Iran and a larger - than - expected decline in US crude oil inventories supported oil prices [10]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME tin rising 3.52%, LME aluminum rising 1.59%, and LME nickel rising 1.12% [10]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised to a new high since May 17, 2023 [10]. - The US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [11]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 28, 2026, the performance of IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 was analyzed, and their future trends were predicted [11][12][13]. - **Gold Futures**: On January 28 and during the night session of January 29, the performance of the gold futures main contract AU2604 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [33][34]. - **Silver Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the silver futures main contract AG2604 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [37]. - **Copper Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the copper futures main contract CU2603 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [43]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the aluminum futures main contract AL2603 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [48]. - **Alumina Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the alumina futures main contract AO2605 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [54]. - **Zinc Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the zinc futures main contract ZN2603 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [58]. - **Nickel Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the nickel futures main contract NI2603 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [64]. - **Tin Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the tin futures main contract SN2603 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [66]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2605 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [73]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the crude oil futures main contract SC2603 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [76]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the fuel oil futures main contract FU2603 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [82]. - **PTA Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the PTA futures main contract TA605 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [82]. - **PVC Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the PVC futures main contract V2605 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [87]. - **Methanol Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the methanol futures main contract MA605 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [88]. - **Soybean Meal Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the soybean meal futures main contract M2605 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [91]. - **Palm Oil Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the palm oil futures main contract P2605 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On January 27, 2026, equity index and CGB futures were mixed, and most commodities showed lower performance, with AU, AG, and vegetable oils rising [2][10][11]. - The profits of China's SVIA rose by 0.6% in 2025 [1][3][36]. - Hong Kong will launch offshore treasury bond futures and expand the interest rate derivatives business under the "Stock Connect" [37]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 27, equity index and CGB futures were mixed. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.6% and IF dropped 0.2%; in CGB futures, T rose 0.00% and TL dropped 0.33%. In commodity futures, most showed lower performance, with AU, AG, and vegetable oils rising. The top three gainers were Silver, RBD Palm Olein, and Tin, while the top three decliners were Platinum, PTA, and Coking Coal [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **RBD Palm Olein**: Rose 2.7% to 9,238 yuan/ton on January 27. It is set to enter a production decline season with an expected inventory destocking trend, and the market is projected to trade sideways with a bullish bias. The recent rise in crude oil prices and bullish fundamental expectations have underpinned the overall uptrend of vegetable oils. Attention should be paid to biodiesel policies and export performance in producing regions, and the arbitrage strategy of long palm oil and short rapeseed oil is recommended [15][18][19]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Coking Coal**: Dropped 3.0% to 1,116.5 yuan/ton on January 27. Demand - side winter stockpiling is still underway, and supply - side coal mines are expected to see a production decline as the holiday approaches. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally with strong spot market support, but the bullish driving force from fundamentals is limited, and the market is expected to trade sideways [22][24][25]. - **Coke**: Dropped 2.8% to 1,668.0 yuan/ton on January 27. Supported by a firm cost side, coupled with lingering expectations of steel mill resumptions and remaining demand for winter stockpiling replenishment, the coke market faces limited supply - demand structural imbalances. Spot price hikes are still expected to materialize, and the futures market is projected to track the movement of coking coal [28][32][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - In 2025, China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 7.3982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [36]. 2.2 Industry News - Hong Kong Chief Executive Li Jiachao stated that Hong Kong will launch offshore treasury bond futures and expand the interest rate derivatives business under the "Stock Connect" [37].