Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and it is recommended to buy on dips and take profits [2]. - For methanol, the current market is significantly driven by news, with increased volatility and higher operational difficulty. It is advisable to observe more and act less. The subsequent domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see after a sharp rise [4]. - Regarding urea, the domestic urea supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also constrained by high supply. Currently, the valuation of urea is neutral to low, and it is more inclined to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view should be maintained, and positions should be built at an appropriate time. In the short term, due to the large increase, it is necessary to guard against the risk of a pullback. A neutral approach with quick entry and exit is recommended [11]. - For PVC, the pessimistic fundamental expectations have improved due to the postponement of Indian anti - dumping, but there are still pressures on supply - demand and valuation. In the short term, the price is strong under the stimulation of anti - dumping postponement and anti - involution sentiment, and the risk of sentiment reversal should be guarded against [13]. - For benzene, the short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price of benzene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction. The price of polyethylene is expected to remain in a downward oscillation [18]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the price of polypropylene in July is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA maintenance season is also over, with a relatively high load level. The processing fee has been repaired, and the inventory level is low. In the short term, the negative feedback pressure from the polyester and terminal sectors is small, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil [21][23]. - For PTA, in the subsequent period, the supply side is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the room for PTA processing fee repair is limited. The demand side is under continuous pressure during the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation has changed from strong to weak, but in the short term, the valuation has upward support due to lower - than - expected imports and domestic plant accidents [25]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, 2025, the front - month WTI crude oil futures closed down $0.94, or 1.42%, at $65.42; the front - month Brent crude oil futures closed unchanged at $68.67; the front - month INE crude oil futures closed up 5.70 yuan, or 1.11%, at 520.4 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: According to the US EIA weekly data, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.17 million barrels to 418.99 million barrels, a 0.75% decrease; SPR inventories increased by 0.20 million barrels to 402.50 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.74 million barrels to 231.13 million barrels, a 0.75% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 2.93 million barrels to 109.90 million barrels, a 2.74% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.09 million barrels to 20.23 million barrels, a 0.47% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.69 million barrels to 45.50 million barrels, a 1.54% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 23, the 09 contract fell 46 yuan/ton to 2411 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of +6 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream operating rate continued to decline, and the profit decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. Overseas plant operating rates returned to medium - high levels, and the market's reaction to overseas supply disruptions ended, with market fluctuations narrowing. The port olefin load increased this week, while the traditional demand was in the off - season, with the operating rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid declining and those of chlorides and MTBE increasing. Overall, the demand was weak. After the methanol price decline, the downstream profit was repaired but remained at a relatively low level. The methanol spot valuation was still high, and the upside was limited in the off - season [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 22, the 09 contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +3 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic operating rate decreased slightly, and the overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level, with the cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The compound fertilizer operating rate bottomed out and rebounded, entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, and the subsequent operating rate will continue to increase, supporting the demand for urea. The export container collection continued, and the port inventory continued to rise. The subsequent demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU showed a sideways movement after continuous increases, and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market weakened [8]. - **Industry Data**: As of July 17, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.08%, up 0.54 percentage points from the previous week and 12.19 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 75.62%, up 3.07 percentage points from the previous week and 3.12 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of July 13, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.295 million tons, a 0.18 - million - ton increase, or a 0.14% increase; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 797,000 tons, a 0.8% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 498,000 tons, a 0.9% decrease. As of July 20, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 505,600 (-19,000) tons [9][10]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,600 (-100) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,795 (-10) dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,800 (-5) dollars; butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9,650 (-50) yuan; and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11,600 (-100) yuan [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PVC09 contract fell 109 yuan to 5,151 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5,070 (-10) yuan/ton, the basis was -81 (+99) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was -118 (-4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost and Operating Rates**: The cost side remained stable, with the calcium carbide price in Wuhai at 2,250 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price at 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the ethylene price at 820 (0) dollars/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.6%, a 0.6% increase; the calcium carbide method operating rate was 79.7%, a 0.5% increase; the ethylene method operating rate was 72%, a 0.9% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 40.1%, a 1% decrease. The in - plant inventory was 368,000 (-14,000) tons, and the social inventory was 657,000 (+34,000) tons [13]. Benzene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of benzene decreased, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large room for upward repair [15][16]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side: the operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was abundant. The supply side: the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the benzene operating rate continued to rise. The benzene port inventory increased significantly. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products increased [16]. Polyolefin Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The black sector showed a pull - back after a rise, and the cost side still provided support. The polyethylene spot price increased, and the PE valuation had limited downward space [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The trader inventory fluctuated at a high level, weakening the price support. In the seasonal off - season, the agricultural film orders were at a low level and fluctuated, and the overall operating rate decreased. In July, the ethylene plant of Huizhou ExxonMobil was put into operation, and the polyethylene price was expected to remain in a downward oscillation [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate was expected to gradually recover, with the propylene supply gradually returning [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In the demand side, the downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the price of polypropylene in July was expected to be bearish [19]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PX09 contract fell 26 yuan to 6,860 yuan, the PX CFR fell 1 dollar to 842 dollars, the basis was 71 (+14) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 84 (-12) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The PX load in China was 81.1%, a 0.2% decrease; the Asian load was 73.6%, unchanged. In terms of plants, Shenghong reduced its load due to a problem with the upstream plant, the overseas plant in Vietnam resumed operation, and Tianjin Petrochemical planned to shut down. The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged. In July, South Korea exported 238,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days, a 5,000 - ton decrease compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of May was 4.346 million tons, a 165,000 - ton decrease from the previous month [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PTA09 contract fell 10 yuan to 4,784 yuan, the East China spot price rose 35 yuan to 4,810 yuan, the basis was 2 (0) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 4 (-6) yuan [24]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged. The downstream load was 88.3%, a 0.5% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 61%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 56%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 11 was 2.172 million tons, a 38,000 - ton increase [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the EG09 contract fell 11 yuan to 4,436 yuan, the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4,501 yuan, the basis was 62 (+2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 0 (+6) yuan [25]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side: the ethylene glycol load was 66.2%, a 1.4% decrease, with the synthetic gas - based load at 70.2%, a 2.9% decrease, and the ethylene - based load at 63.8%, a 0.4% decrease. The downstream load was 88.3%, a 0.5% decrease. The expected import arrival was 157,000 tons, and the departure from East China on July 22 was 5,000 tons, with the inventory out - flow increasing. The port inventory was 533,000 tons, a 20,000 - ton decrease [25].

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core Viewpoints - Commodity sentiment has warmed up, domestic PTA production capacity supply has shrunk, PTA port inventory has declined, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains around $90. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. The port inventory in the market has been reduced, and polyester replenishment has improved when the basis weakens. The basis of PTA has recovered from 0 to 30. The maintenance of the northeast PX plant and the Zhejiang reforming unit has been postponed. The early maintenance of mainstream PTA factories has significantly boosted the market [2] Group 3 - Summary of Related Indicators Price and Basis - PTA spot price decreased from 4785 to 4775, a change of -10.00 [2] - MEG domestic price increased from 4470 to 4490, a change of 20.00 [2] - PTA closing price increased from 4780 to 4794, a change of 14.00 [2] - MEG closing price increased from 4410 to 4447, a change of 37.00 [2] - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6650 to 6640, a change of -10.00 [2] - Short fiber basis decreased from 178 to 168, a change of -10.00 [2] - 8 - 9 spread decreased from 16 to 8, a change of -8.00 [2] Cash Flow and Processing Fee - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6.00 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 367 to 385, a change of 17.85 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3800 to 3810, a change of 10.00 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1074 to 1088, a change of 14.19 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 271 to 258, a change of -13.15 [2] Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, a change of -0.01 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 53.00% to 55.00%, a change of 2.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) decreased from 66.00% to 65.00%, a change of -0.01 [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 46.00%, a change of -0.06 [3]

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price increases, with Wuxi Hongwang's 304 cold-rolled price rising to 12,900 CNY/ton, a daily increase of 100 CNY/ton, and Foshan Hongwang's price also at 12,900 CNY/ton, up by 150 CNY/ton [1] - Nickel ore prices are showing some flexibility, with Philippine 1.3% nickel ore FOB prices dropping to 32-33 USD, while Indonesian nickel ore prices have slightly decreased by 0.03-0.05 USD, maintaining a generally stable trend [2][3] - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to decrease, with an estimated output of 3.2531 million tons in July, down 2.87% month-on-month and 1.67% year-on-year [2] - Social inventory of stainless steel is declining slowly, with Wuxi and Foshan's 300 series social inventory at 525,900 tons, a slight week-on-week increase [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic despite being in a consumption off-season, with end-user purchases primarily driven by essential restocking [3] - Nickel iron prices remain weak, with recent transactions hitting a new low of 900 CNY/nickel, leading to limited purchasing interest from steel mills due to cost pressures [2][3] - The repair schedule of a stainless steel plant in Guangxi is expected to impact market supply by approximately 80,000 tons over a 25-30 day period [3] Market Outlook - The overall macroeconomic sentiment is positive, with supportive policies expected to be released, particularly in key industries like steel and non-ferrous metals [3] - The stainless steel market is anticipated to experience short-term fluctuations, with a reference trading range of 12,600-13,200 CNY/ton, influenced by policy directions and production cuts from steel mills [4]

Group 1 - The company held its 20th meeting of the 9th Board of Directors on July 18, 2025, to discuss significant matters including asset sales and shareholder meeting proposals [2][3][5] - The Board approved the proposal for the full subsidiary to sell part of the Quanzhou project assets for approximately RMB 205,268.94 million, including tax [3][12][18] - The sale aims to accelerate inventory clearance and optimize resource allocation, following guidance from local government departments [3][14][54] Group 2 - The transaction involves selling residential units, parking spaces, and ongoing construction projects to subsidiaries of Quanzhou Kaifeng Real Estate Group [12][14][41] - The sale price for the residential units and parking spaces is broken down into three agreements, with total prices of RMB 9,624.73 million, RMB 114,975.23 million, and RMB 80,668.98 million respectively [15][41][49] - The transaction is expected to contribute significantly to the company's revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2024, with projected figures of RMB 188,320.13 million in revenue and RMB 16,303.33 million in net profit [54][55] Group 3 - The company plans to convene its first extraordinary general meeting of 2025 on August 5, 2025, to discuss the approved asset sale [59][60] - The meeting will utilize a combination of on-site and online voting methods for shareholders [60][63] - Shareholders must register for the meeting by August 1, 2025, and can delegate their voting rights to representatives [68][69]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Industrial Holdings (00363.HK) announced the sale of several assets in Quanzhou, Fujian Province, totaling approximately RMB 2,052,689,371 (including tax) to enhance cash flow and optimize resource allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Sale Agreements - The company entered into three sale agreements with Quanzhou Zhenyuan and Quanzhou Xinyuan for the sale of various residential units, parking spaces, and land use rights [1][2]. - Agreement One involves the sale of a residential unit and undeveloped land use rights for a total of RMB 96,247,262 [1]. - Agreement Two includes the sale of multiple residential buildings and associated parking spaces for a total of RMB 1,149,752,342 [2]. - Agreement Three covers the sale of additional residential units and parking spaces for a total of RMB 806,689,767 [2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The asset sales are aimed at accelerating inventory turnover, optimizing resource allocation, and increasing cash inflow to meet the company's operational funding requirements [2]. - The transactions align with the company's strategy to gradually focus on development in Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta region [2].

Group 1 - The glass futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract opening at 1069.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1092.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.06% [1] - According to Wukuang Futures, glass supply remains stable with resilient demand, leading to a continuous decline in inventory and a price level at historical lows, which strengthens cost support [1] - Hualian Futures notes that there were no new production line activations or repairs last week, and the operating rate and weekly output of glass have slightly increased, indicating an improvement in market sales [1] Group 2 - Ningzheng Futures indicates that the current daily melting capacity of float glass enterprises is stable, but terminal demand remains weak, with insufficient orders from downstream processing enterprises [2] - The glass market in East China is operating steadily, with most companies maintaining stable prices for sales, as there has been no substantial improvement in downstream orders [2] - The forecast for the September glass contract suggests short-term fluctuations, with support expected around the 1070 CNY level, recommending a wait-and-see approach or short-term buying on dips [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Expected to oscillate, with a strategy of lightly shorting and buying call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of 515 - 535 yuan/barrel [1][3][5] - **LPG**: Expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, with a strategy of temporary observation. PG is expected to be in the range of 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton [1][6][8] - **L**: Expected to have a short - term long and long - term short trend, with a strategy of buying on dips. L is expected to be in the range of 7250 - 7400 yuan/ton [1][10][11] - **PP**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds and opportunistically taking a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is expected to be in the range of 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [1][13][14] - **PVC**: Expected to have a short - term long and long - term short trend, with a strategy of short - term long and long - term short. V is expected to be in the range of 4950 - 5100 yuan/ton [1][16] - **PX**: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. PX is expected to be in the range of 6690 - 6790 yuan/ton [1][17][18] - **PTA/PR**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. TA is expected to be in the range of 4680 - 4770 yuan/ton [1][19][21] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. EG is expected to be in the range of 4280 - 4350 yuan/ton [1][22][24] - **Glass**: Expected to be long on rebounds, with a strategy of going long based on the daily moving average. FG is expected to be in the range of 1070 - 1100 yuan/ton [2][26][27] - **Soda Ash**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. SA is expected to be in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [2][29][30] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to continue to rebound, with a strategy of following the upward trend. SH is expected to be in the range of 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton [2][32][33] - **Methanol**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. MA is expected to be in the range of 2360 - 2400 yuan/ton [2][34] - **Urea**: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. UR is expected to be in the range of 1750 - 1800 yuan/ton [2] - **Asphalt**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of lightly shorting. BU is expected to be in the range of 3600 - 3700 yuan/ton [2] - **Propylene**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. Propylene is expected to be in the range of 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On July 11, WTI rose 2.82%, Brent rose 2.51%, and SC fell 3.11% [3] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increase in August. However, the oil price has strong support due to the consumption peak season and Saudi Arabia's increase in the official OSP in August. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand growth is expected to slow down. US crude oil inventory increased by 710 million barrels to 426 million barrels in the week ending July 4 [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short - position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of 515 - 535 yuan/barrel [5] LPG - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the PG main contract closed at 4164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4590 (+0), 4496 (+2), and 4620 (-10) yuan/ton respectively [6] - **Basic Logic**: Upstream oil prices are the dominant factor. Although oil prices are supported in the short term, LPG supply is relatively sufficient, so it oscillates in a narrow range. PDH device profit remained unchanged at - 384 yuan/ton as of July 11. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. Inventory increased [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily observe. PG is expected to be in the range of 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton [8] L - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the prices of L contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 7291 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5%. The North China basis was - 101 (month - on - month increase of 28) [10] - **Basic Logic**: Although the cost support has improved and the agricultural film start - up rate has increased month - on - month, the downstream demand for polyethylene is in the off - season. Some devices are planned for maintenance, and the supply pressure is expected to ease marginally. However, new devices are planned to be put into production in July - August, with a total capacity of 2.05 million tons, so the medium - and long - term outlook is weak [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. L is expected to be in the range of 7250 - 7400 yuan/ton [10] PP - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the prices of PP contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 7069 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%. The East China basis was 49 (month - on - month increase of 34), and the number of warehouse receipts increased [13] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support has improved, and the export profit margin has turned positive. However, the continuous increase in warehouse receipts restricts the rebound space. Device restart plans are increasing, and the production is expected to increase this week. New capacity of 2 million tons is planned to be added in the third quarter, so the medium - and long - term supply is under pressure [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds and opportunistically take a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is expected to be in the range of 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [13] PVC - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the prices of PVC contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 4980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2%. The Changzhou basis was - 120 (month - on - month increase of 60), and the number of warehouse receipts increased [16] - **Basic Logic**: Policy expectations drive the disk to rebound, and the price of动力煤 has risen. However, export orders have weakened month - on - month, the off - season inventory accumulation pressure is obvious, and the social inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The production is expected to increase next week, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of Bohua and Wanhua. The domestic demand is in the seasonal off - season [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long and long - term short. V is expected to be in the range of 4950 - 5100 yuan/ton [16] PX - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the spot price of PX in East China was 7120 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The PX09 contract closed at 6694 (-88) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread was 74 (+10) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 426 (+88) yuan/ton [17] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices are operating at a relatively high load. Supply and demand are in a tight balance. PX inventory is decreasing but still at a relatively high level. PXN is not low, and the basis is strong. It fluctuates with the cost recently [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly go long and look for shorting opportunities at high levels. PX is expected to be in the range of 6690 - 6790 yuan/ton [18] PTA/PR - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the PTA price in East China was 4715 (-20) yuan/ton. The TA09 contract closed at 4700 (-42) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread was 38 (+26) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 15 (+22) yuan/ton [19] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is abundant. The demand is expected to weaken, and the downstream polyester production reduction load is continuously declining at a high level, and the terminal weaving start - up load continues to decline. The inventory is decreasing, and the basis is weakening [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for shorting opportunities at high levels. TA is expected to be in the range of 4680 - 4770 yuan/ton [21] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4383 (-3) yuan/ton. The EG09 contract closed at 4305 (-20) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread was - 26 (+7) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 78 (+17) yuan/ton [22] - **Basic Logic**: Recently, the number of domestic and overseas device overhauls is less than that of restarts, and the arrival volume is lower than the same period. However, the expected arrival volume is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be loose. The demand is weakening, and the downstream polyester production reduction load is decreasing, and the terminal weaving start - up continues to decline. The low inventory supports the disk price, and the oil price is oscillating strongly recently [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly go long and look for shorting opportunities at high levels. EG is expected to be in the range of 4280 - 4350 yuan/ton [24] Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot market quotation increased, and the disk rose slightly. The Hubei basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly [26] - **Basic Logic**: The high - level meeting emphasizes the exit of backward production capacity, and the market expects the technological improvement process of coal - fired production lines to accelerate. The in - production capacity of glass fluctuates slightly at a low level, the production this week has increased slightly, the inventory of glass enterprises has continued to decline, but it is still 10% higher than the same period last year. The fuel price has increased, and the spot quotation has been raised [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long based on the daily moving average. FG is expected to be in the range of 1070 - 1100 yuan/ton [27] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot price of heavy soda ash increased, the disk rose, the main contract basis decreased, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts increased [29] - **Basic Logic**: The high - level meeting mentioned supply - side capacity reduction, which boosted the morale of the industrial chain. However, as the impact of policy speculation weakens, the center of gravity of soda ash has declined, and soda ash manufacturers have accumulated inventory again. The supply of the soda ash market is at a high level, and the inventory of soda ash plants is difficult to reduce. The downstream support is okay, but the terminal consumption is weak [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. SA is expected to be in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [30] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The spot price of caustic soda was partially raised, the disk center of gravity moved up, the basis strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [32] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has a summer overhaul season inventory reduction expectation. The overall start - up of caustic soda is still at a high level, and there is an expectation of new capacity commissioning. The supply pressure may be relieved in the short term. The main downstream alumina start - up has rebounded, but the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The export scale has shrunk in May. The cost support has moved down. The liquid caustic soda inventory has decreased [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the upward trend. SH is expected to be in the range of 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton [33] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2381 (-23) yuan/ton. The main 09 contract of methanol closed at 2370 (-28) yuan/ton. The methanol East China basis was 11 (+13) yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol devices are under overhaul, but the comprehensive start - up load remains relatively high. Overseas methanol devices have recovered to the same - period high. The demand has a negative feedback, the load of coastal MTO external procurement devices has continued to decline, and the start - up load of traditional demand is generally high. The social inventory has increased, and the port basis has weakened [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. MA is expected to be in the range of 2360 - 2400 yuan/ton [2]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is currently experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, with prices expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term due to low terminal demand and unstable cost support from international crude oil prices [2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of July 11, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the asphalt factory warehouse futures inventory remained stable at 39,350 tons, while the warehouse futures inventory was also unchanged at 42,950 tons [1]. - The capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 33.9% for the week ending July 9, reflecting a 0.8% increase week-on-week, with a weekly asphalt production of 566,000 tons, up 2.4% from the previous week [1]. - The capacity utilization rate for 77 domestic heavy-duty asphalt enterprises was 32.7%, marking a 1.0% increase week-on-week [1]. - The planned production volume for asphalt refineries nationwide in July is expected to remain consistent with May and June levels, with the East China region experiencing an earlier end to the rainy season compared to previous years, providing a favorable market condition [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures indicates that oil prices are operating within a range, and asphalt prices are expected to remain volatile. Recent shipping volumes have significantly decreased, and there are signs of inventory accumulation. The demand during the peak season has not exceeded market expectations, and attention should be paid to inventory depletion in the short term [2]. - Guoxin Futures notes that the current asphalt market is characterized by weak supply and demand. Although the operating load of enterprises is low, changes are limited. The terminal demand remains sluggish, leading to a cautious market sentiment among downstream users and traders. The cost support from international crude oil prices is also unstable, suggesting that asphalt prices will likely continue to fluctuate slightly in the short term [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EB2508 rose 2.73% to close at 7,520 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's styrene production decreased by 0.05% to 366,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.05% to 80.03%. On the demand side, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) decreased by 5.21% to 243,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 2.99% to 194,000 tons, the inventory at East China ports increased by 12.85% to 1.115 million tons, and the inventory at South China ports decreased by 40% to 90,000 tons. After the centralized restart of large - scale plants, the styrene operating rate has remained high. This week, a 300,000 - ton plant in Hebei is planned to shut down, while a 350,000 - ton plant in the Northeast and a 120,000 - ton plant in Central China will restart, with production and capacity utilization expected to rise slightly. In the off - season of terminal demand, downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The finished product inventory of downstream "Three S" products is high, and the profits of EPS and PS are still low; although the profit of ABS has recovered due to weak costs, the demand has not improved. The total inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and it is more difficult to destock. In terms of cost, the US may maintain sanctions on some oil - producing countries, and the situation in the Red Sea region has deteriorated, causing recent international oil prices to fluctuate strongly; the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to remain loose, and its price lacks support. The market is trading on the expectation of the exit of backward production capacity, and the industrial products sector is mostly rising. Pay attention to the resistance around 7,600 on the EB2508 contract [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of the active styrene futures contract (EB) was 425,364 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 129,452 lots; the closing price was 7,520 yuan/ton. The closing price of the September contract was 7,426 yuan/ton, up 163 yuan. The long position of the top 20 holders was 382,996 lots, a decrease of 292 lots; the net long position was 263,392 lots, a decrease of 16,825 lots; the short position was 399,821 lots, an increase of 2,618 lots. The total number of styrene warehouse receipts was 7,908 lots, a decrease of 6 lots. The FOB South Korea middle - price of styrene was 905 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR China middle - price of styrene was 915 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices of styrene in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 7,755 yuan/ton, 7,625 yuan/ton, and 7,635 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and 30 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia middle - price of ethylene was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia middle - price was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe middle - price was 806 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf (FOB) was 728.83 cents/gallon, unchanged; the CIF price in Taiwan was 278 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 763 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar. The market prices of pure benzene in the South, East, and North China markets were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,875 yuan/ton, and 5,830 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and 30 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 80.03%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points. The national styrene inventory was 193,950 tons, a decrease of 5,973 tons. The total inventory at the East China main port was 111,500 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons; the trade inventory was 39,000 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 55.88% (down 3.84 percentage points), 65.04% (down 0.96 percentage points), 52.4% (down 5 percentage points), 29% (down 1 percentage point), and 73.66% (down 0.43 percentage points) respectively [2]. Industry News - From June 27th to July 3rd, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 366,600 tons, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 80.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 243,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7223 | 7225 | 7243 | 7219 | 5 | 0.07% | 114,889 | 1,041 | | Plastic 2605 | 7199 | 7200 | 7218 | 7197 | -1 | -0.01% | 1,816 | 35 | | Plastic 2509 | 7255 | 7245 | 7264 | 7240 | -5 | -0.07% | 448,580 | -332 | | PP2601 | 7026 | 7006 | 7031 | 7002 | -17 | -0.24% | 109,780 | -590 | | PP2605 | 7016 | 6997 | 7016 | 6997 | -12 | -0.17% | 3,907 | 194 | | PP2509 | 7066 | 7045 | 7070 | 7042 | -14 | -0.20% | 402,080 | -2,959 | [5] Spot Market Quotes - PE Market: Most PE market prices declined. In North China, some linear PE prices dropped by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure, low - pressure, and linear PE prices dropped by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear and low - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and some high - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7,160 - 7,400 yuan/ton, in East China were 7,200 - 7,650 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7,350 - 7,600 yuan/ton [7]. - Shandong Propylene Market: The market price declined slightly, closing at 6,400 - 6,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - PP Market: The PP market continued to decline slightly, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The upstream petrochemical factory prices continued to decline, traders lacked confidence and actively sold goods, and some offers still had discounts. Downstream buyers made rigid purchases, and actual transactions focused on negotiation. The mainstream prices of North China drawn PP in the morning were 7,010 - 7,110 yuan/ton, in East China were 7,000 - 7,180 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7,050 - 7,230 yuan/ton [7]. Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - LianSu L2509 opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed lower at 7,245 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.07%), with a trading volume of 210,000 lots and an open interest decrease of 332 to 448,580 lots. The PP main contract closed at 7,045 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan, a decrease of 0.20%, with an open interest decrease of 2,959 lots to 401,300 lots [6]. - The weak and fluctuating futures market increased market wait - and - see sentiment, and the market trading atmosphere was cautious. New production capacities were gradually put into operation, and the intensity of device maintenance decreased, putting pressure on the supply side. In July, there were plans to put into operation the fourth line of Yulong Petrochemical and the first line of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical for PP, and the second - phase HDPE of Jilin Petrochemical. The overall supply pressure was increasing. The off - season demand lacked support, and downstream buyers mostly maintained a low - inventory strategy. The supply - demand margin was deteriorating, and the market showed a unilateral downward trend [6]. Group 4: Industry News - On July 8, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons (yesterday's inventory was revised to 790,000 tons), a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 1.27%. The inventory in the same period last year was 780,000 tons [7]. Group 5: Data Overview - The report includes data on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][16][17]