Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals market continues to show strength, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and geopolitical risk sentiment, with silver outperforming gold significantly [1][3][5] - Silver's unique dual attributes, serving both as a financial asset and having important industrial uses, are contributing to its price increase, particularly with rising demand from the photovoltaic and new energy sectors [3] Group 2: Base Metals - The copper market remains on an upward trend, while aluminum is experiencing high-level fluctuations, and zinc has shown a pattern of rising and then retreating during the week [1] - Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure due to expectations of increased supply from the revival of certain lithium mines and a slowdown in demand during the December to February period, leading to a market correction [2] Group 3: Agricultural Products - Egg futures have rebounded after a period of decline, driven by optimistic expectations regarding future capacity reduction, despite ongoing weak spot prices [4] - Soybean meal prices are showing a strong oscillating trend, while corn prices are fluctuating, and live pig prices have seen a slight rebound [1][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current price is mainly influenced by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between the futures and spot markets. Short - term price increases are significant, so investors need to be vigilant about the risk of price corrections [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 118,740 yuan/ton and closed at 123,520 yuan/ton, with a 0.44% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 924,823 lots, and the open interest was 607,187 lots (647,366 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 16,560 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on that day was 17,101 lots, unchanged from the previous day. Starting from December 26, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading rules for 12 lithium carbonate futures contracts [1]. Carbonate Lithium Spot - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 97,800 - 112,000 yuan/ton, a change of 3,400 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 97,500 - 107,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 3,400 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,450 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The actual market transactions show that most upstream lithium salt factories focus on long - term contracts, with few spot transactions. Downstream material factories are cautious about the current high prices, mainly purchasing based on rigid demand and increasing long - term contracts, and adjusting the procurement rhythm according to next month's production schedule. The overall spot market transactions are extremely rare. Hunan Yueneng will conduct maintenance starting from January 1, 2026, which is expected to affect the production of phosphate cathode products by 15,000 - 35,000 tons, corresponding to a lithium carbonate consumption of about 350 - 1,000 tons. The current spot inventory is 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, smelter inventory is 17,851 tons, a decrease of 239 tons; downstream inventory is 39,892 tons, a decrease of 1,593 tons; other inventory is 52,030 tons, an increase of 1,180 tons. The overall inventory is expected to continue to decline in December, but the depletion speed continues to slow down [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and sell on rallies for hedging opportunities. Options, inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures strategies are not recommended [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Steel prices have weak driving force for continuous increase. The current low - volatility structure remains unbroken. Short - term long positions can be appropriately closed near price integer levels, and in the absence of new drivers, operate with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon face a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with prices oscillating. Their fundamentals are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand, but policy benefits and cost support may lead to a risk of price decline after a rise [3]. - Coking coal and coke futures are oscillating after basis repair. There is currently no sign of an upward trend in coking coal, but it is difficult to break below the high - cost margin of 1000. After short - term valuation repair, it waits for the spot rhythm. Industrial customers can consider purchasing some cost - effective spot [5]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to rising port inventories. However, as iron - making molten iron is expected to stabilize and rebound at the end of the month and steel mills need to replenish inventories, the decline in iron ore prices may slow down [6]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - The supply and demand of steel are both weak, but the inventory can still be depleted, mainly contributed by rebar. The iron - making molten iron output may not have reached the bottom, but the subsequent resumption of production power is also strong. There is also incremental demand for winter storage replenishment in the future. Short - term long positions can be appropriately closed near price integer levels, and operate with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - For trading strategies, short - term long positions should pay attention to closing, and hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive arbitrage can be rolled, or option strategies can be used to assist spot sales [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - The demand for silicon iron and manganese silicon has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply is still high, with a large pressure of over - supply in the medium term. The cost support for manganese silicon has strengthened. The overall fundamentals are under pressure, and industrial customers can sell short for hedging at high prices [3][7]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market has a fourth - round price cut expectation, and the trading atmosphere is general. The futures market is oscillating after basis repair. There is potential for inventory replenishment in the future. Industrial customers can consider purchasing some cost - effective spot, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [5][7]. Iron Ore - The iron - making molten iron output has stabilized in the short term, and the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, putting pressure on prices. However, as the iron - making molten iron is expected to rebound and steel mills need to replenish inventories, the decline in iron ore prices may slow down [6].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, prompting regulatory adjustments in trading rules to manage volatility [2][7]. Market Analysis - On December 25, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract opened at 118,740 CNY/ton and closed at 123,520 CNY/ton, reflecting a change of 0.44% from the previous settlement price [2][7]. - The trading volume for the day was 924,823 contracts, with an open interest of 607,187 contracts, down from 647,366 contracts the previous day [2][7]. - Starting December 26, 2025, the exchange will adjust trading rules for 12 lithium carbonate contracts, including minimum order sizes and daily opening limits [2][7]. Spot Market - According to SMM data, battery-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 97,800 and 112,000 CNY/ton, with an increase of 3,400 CNY/ton from the previous day [3][8]. - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 97,500 and 107,000 CNY/ton, also reflecting a 3,400 CNY/ton increase [3][8]. - The price of 6% lithium concentrate remains unchanged at 1,450 USD/ton [3][8]. - Market activity shows that most upstream lithium salt manufacturers are focusing on long-term contracts, with limited spot transactions [3][8]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Current inventory stands at 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons from the previous period [3][8]. - Smelter inventory is at 17,851 tons, down by 239 tons, while downstream inventory is at 39,892 tons, down by 1,593 tons [3][8]. - Other inventory has increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons [3][8]. - The overall trend indicates a continued reduction in inventory, although the pace of depletion is slowing [3][8]. Price Trends and Strategy - Current prices are heavily influenced by supply-side disruptions, with signs of excessive speculation in the market [4][9]. - The market is experiencing a divergence between futures and spot prices, indicating potential for a price correction [4][9]. - A short-term trading strategy is recommended, focusing on monitoring consumption and inventory trends, with opportunities to sell high for hedging [4][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - For FY2026Q2 (September 1, 2025 - November 31, 2025), the company reported revenue of $12.43 billion, slightly exceeding expectations (Bloomberg consensus of $12.24 billion), with a year-over-year growth of 1% in dollar terms [2][6] - Gross margin decreased by 3 percentage points to 40.6%, primarily impacted by increased tariffs in North America and old inventory issues in Greater China [2][6] - Net profit fell by 32% year-over-year to $792 million, with a net profit margin decline of 3 percentage points to 6.4% [2][6] Revenue Breakdown - North America showed strong performance with a revenue increase of 9% year-over-year, while Greater China faced a significant decline of 16% [7] - Revenue by region: North America $5.63 billion, EMEA $3.39 billion, APLA $1.67 billion, Greater China $1.42 billion [7] - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue decreased by 9% to $4.6 billion, while wholesale revenue increased by 8% to $7.5 billion [7] Inventory Situation - As of FY2026Q2, total inventory was $7.73 billion, a decrease of 3% year-over-year [11] - Inventory levels in North America and EMEA are recovering, while Greater China shows significant inventory reduction [11] Performance Guidance - The company expects FY2026Q3 revenue to decline year-over-year, with moderate growth anticipated in North America [11]

Group 1 - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.4385 million tons, a decrease of 61,900 tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 4.13% [1] - Light soda ash inventory is 735,500 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons week-on-week, while heavy soda ash inventory is 703,000 tons, a decrease of 68,200 tons [1] - On December 25, the price of light soda ash from Jiangsu Kunshan Jinggang decreased to 1,350-1,370 RMB/ton, while Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical's light soda ash price remained stable at 1,300 RMB/ton [1] Group 2 - According to Caixin Futures, the demand for heavy soda ash is negatively impacted by the decline in float glass production, with the annual demand growth expected to be slightly negative [3] - Light soda ash demand is anticipated to continue growing due to the expansion of lithium carbonate production capacity and improved exports, although the large base of soda ash production capacity will pressure cost lines [3] - Zhengxin Futures indicates that short-term commodity sentiment is decent, but fundamental changes in soda ash remain limited, with a mid-term trend expected to maintain a bearish outlook amid a supply surplus [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current price is mainly dominated by supply - side interference news with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices in the market. With a large short - term increase, there is a need to be vigilant about the callback risk [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 24, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 124,720 yuan/ton, with a 5.89% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 949,006 lots, and the open interest was 647,366 lots (the previous day's open interest was 671,573 lots). The current basis is - 21,900 yuan/ton. There were 17,101 lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, a change of 450 lots from the previous day. Despite the Guangzhou Futures Exchange raising the trading and intraday closing transaction fees for the lithium carbonate futures LC2605 contract to 0.032% of the transaction amount, the futures still rose significantly, and the current price is at a two - year high [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 97,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, a change of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 96,700 - 101,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 2,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,450 US dollars/ton, a change of 30 US dollars/ton. In November 2025, China's total lithium carbonate imports were about 22,055 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 15%, with an average import price of about 9,915 US dollars/ton, a 11% month - on - month increase from the October average price. The lithium spodumene imports reached 729,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 12%, equivalent to about 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia was the main source of the increase, with imports reaching 425,000 tons in that month, a significant month - on - month increase of 44% and accounting for 58% of the total imports. Imports from Zimbabwe were 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28%; imports from Nigeria were 92,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16%. Additionally, 73,000 tons of lithium spodumene ore from Mali arrived at ports [2] Inventory Situation - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,044 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,071 tons; the downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,253 tons; other inventories are 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,280 tons. The downstream and smelter inventories are decreasing while other inventories are increasing. The overall inventory in December is expected to continue to decline, but the inventory depletion is slowing down, and attention should be paid to the release of relevant inventory data on Thursday [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and choose the right time to sell hedging at high prices. Cross - period: None. Cross - variety: None [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. The port inventory will continue to decline, but there are still pressures in the future due to high imports and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral strategies [3]. - For urea, the market continues to oscillate higher. The demand has improved in the short term, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, currently having a neutral - to - bullish view, short - term operations with quick entries and exits are recommended. It is suggested to hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong domestic supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large upward repair space for valuation. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The valuation of PE has limited downward space. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [22]. - For PX, the load remains high, and downstream PTA has many overhauls. It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is advisable to pay attention to buying on dips [25]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain high - level overhauls in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. The valuation is neutral to low. Attention should be paid to the risk of a balance - sheet reversal caused by increased unexpected overhauls [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market performance: INE's main crude oil futures rose 3.00 yuan/barrel, or 0.68%, to 444.70 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 2.00 yuan/ton, or 0.08%, to 2,480.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 14.00 yuan/ton, or 0.47%, to 3,014.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory data: At the Fujairah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.70 million barrels to 6.27 million barrels, a 10.08% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.38 million barrels to 2.29 million barrels, a 14.25% decline; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.02 million barrels to 10.38 million barrels, an 8.95% decline; total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.10 million barrels to 18.94 million barrels, a 10.00% decline [1]. Methanol - Market performance: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, and Hebei decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 30 yuan/ton respectively, while Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 16 yuan/ton to 2,172 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 24 yuan [2]. - Strategy: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will consolidate. The port inventory will decline, but there are future pressures. The fundamentals have pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - Market performance: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while Hubei increased by 20 yuan/ton, and other regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 14 yuan/ton to 1,735 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy: The market oscillates higher. The demand has improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand has improved, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. Rubber - Market performance: Bulls believe in factors such as limited production growth due to weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, the seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. Bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, the off - season demand, and the possible under - performance of supply - side benefits. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tires increased. As of December 14, 2025, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.152 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous month. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 748,000 tons, a 2.5% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 404,000 tons, a 2.8% increase. The total rubber inventory in Qingdao was 494,200 (+94,000) tons [9][10]. - Strategy: A neutral - to - bullish view, short - term operations with quick entries and exits are recommended, and it is suggested to hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - Market performance: The PVC05 contract rose 43 yuan to 4,781 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,480 (+60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 301 (+17) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 135 (-7) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 77.4%, a 2.1% decline from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a 3.5% decline. The factory inventory was 329,000 tons (-16,000), and the social inventory was 1.057 million tons (-3,000) [12]. - Strategy: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment drives a rebound, and in the medium term, shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market performance: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, a 1.02% increase; the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 0.46 million tons to 13.93 million tons; the weighted operating rate of the three S products on the demand side was 40.60%, a 1.67% decline [16]. - Strategy: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large upward repair space for valuation. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - Market performance: The main futures contract closed at 6,408 yuan/ton, a 112 - yuan increase. The spot price remained unchanged at 6,250 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened by 112 yuan/ton to - 158 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.34%, a 0.76% increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 17,200 tons to 487,800 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 35,600 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% decline [19]. - Strategy: OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The valuation of PE has limited downward space. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - Market performance: The main futures contract closed at 6,278 yuan/ton, a 120 - yuan increase. The spot price remained unchanged at 6,250 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened by 120 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.05%, a 0.31% increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 537,800 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 90,000 tons to 198,300 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 7,000 tons to 67,500 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decline [21]. - Strategy: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [22]. PX - Market performance: The PX03 contract fell 8 yuan to 7,294 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 5 dollars to 901 dollars. The basis was 24 yuan (+43), and the 3 - 5 spread was 16 yuan (-4). The Chinese PX load was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous period; the Asian load was 78.9%, a 0.4% decline. Tianjin Petrochemical in China shut down, and some overseas plants restarted. The PTA load was 73.2%, a 0.5% decline. In mid - and early December, South Korea's PX exports to China were 283,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8,000 tons. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons [24]. - Strategy: The load remains high, and downstream PTA has many overhauls. It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is advisable to pay attention to buying on dips [25]. PTA - Market performance: The PTA05 contract rose 12 yuan to 5,094 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 60 yuan to 5,015 yuan. The basis was - 19 yuan (-2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 78 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 73.2%, a 0.5% decline. The downstream load was 91.2%, unchanged from the previous period. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 4% to 79%, and the loom load decreased by 5% to 62%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 2.15 million tons, a 19,000 - ton decrease. The spot processing fee rose 37 yuan to 214 yuan, and the on - paper processing fee rose 17 yuan to 309 yuan [26]. - Strategy: The supply will maintain high - level overhauls in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - Market performance: The EG05 contract rose 195 yuan to 3,818 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 3,573 yuan. The basis was - 13 yuan (-8), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 62 yuan (+19). The ethylene glycol load was 72%, a 2% increase. The downstream load was 91.2%, unchanged from the previous period. The import arrival forecast was 118,000 tons, and the East China departure was 12,000 tons on December 23. The port inventory was 716,000 tons, a 30,000 - ton increase. The naphtha - based production profit was - 995 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 1,064 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 123 yuan [28]. - Strategy: The overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. The valuation is neutral to low. Attention should be paid to the risk of a balance - sheet reversal caused by increased unexpected overhauls [29].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The current price of lithium carbonate is mainly influenced by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. There is a phenomenon of divergence between futures and spot markets, and the short - term increase is too large, so the risk of a callback should be vigilant [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 23, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 113,900 yuan/ton and closed at 120,360 yuan/ton, with a 5.67% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 731,003 lots, and the open interest was 671,573 lots, up from 668,829 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is - 18,060 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 16,651 lots, a change of 240 lots from the previous day [2] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 96,400 - 102,600 yuan/ton, a change of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 95,100 - 98,600 yuan/ton, also a change of 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,420 US dollars/ton, a change of 35 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2] - The expectation of the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo continues to ferment. The SMM weekly inventory reduction is less than expected but still supports the strong trend. The total spot inventory is 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,044 tons. Among them, smelter inventory is 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,071 tons; downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,253 tons; other inventory is 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,280 tons. The overall inventory reduction in December is expected to continue, but the reduction has slowed down [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, pay attention to consumption and inventory inflection points, and sell hedging on rallies when the opportunity arises. There are no strategies for inter - period and cross - variety operations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that Tabo (06110) is a leading company in the downstream channel of sports footwear and apparel, with improvements in retail efficiency driven by store structure optimization and digital transformation, alongside effective membership operations that enhance user loyalty. The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.229 billion, 1.379 billion, and 1.533 billion yuan for FY2026-FY2028, with a current price corresponding to a FY2026 PE of 14 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - In FY2026 Q3, the company experienced a high single-digit decline in total sales, with direct store sales area decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [1] - The decline in sales is attributed to store closures, with a net closure of 332 stores in FY2026 H1, resulting in a total of 4,688 stores as of the end of November 2025 [1] - The company anticipates that offline sales will continue to face pressure due to fluctuations in consumer traffic and market competition, although it expects a reduction in net store closures in FY2026 H2 compared to FY2026 H1 [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to maintain growth in e-commerce sales due to its strong operational capabilities, enhancing its e-commerce system by leveraging offline stores and expanding into various online channels [2] - The company is focusing on new brand and business layout in the outdoor and running segments, collaborating with brands like Norda, soar, Ciele, and Norrøna to meet differentiated consumer demands [3] - The company has established the running ecosystem brand ektos and opened a store in Shanghai, which gained attention during the Shanghai Marathon [3] Group 3 - For FY2026, the company is projected to see a decline in net profit, with an estimated revenue drop of 7% and a net profit decrease of around 4% due to a volatile consumer environment impacting terminal sales [4] - The main brand Adidas is expected to perform relatively well in the Greater China region, with a 6% revenue growth on a currency-neutral basis for the period of July to September 2025 [4] - Nike is currently undergoing inventory destocking in the Greater China region, with a 16% revenue decline on a currency-neutral basis for the period of September to November 2025, but is expected to improve its operational performance in the long term [4]