Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", with specific ratings for each variety as follows: steel - oscillation; iron ore - oscillation with an upward bias; scrap steel - oscillation; coke - oscillation; coking coal - oscillation with an upward bias; glass - oscillation; manganese silicon - oscillation; silicon iron - oscillation; soda ash - oscillation [8][12][15][16][19] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of steel are improving, and with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, the macro - environment is favorable, leading to a low - level rebound in the futures market. However, as the off - season deepens, demand may weaken, and high inventory levels limit the upside potential. Iron ore prices are strong due to potential restocking demand, while scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate. Coke is expected to follow coking coal in oscillation, and coking coal's far - month contracts may oscillate with an upward bias. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to trade around cost levels. Glass and soda ash face over - supply issues, with glass prices likely to oscillate weakly without more cold repairs, and soda ash prices expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long run [2][7][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines' shipments decreased month - on - month, with a significant increase in arrivals this period after a decrease in the previous two weeks. Port inventories slightly declined, and steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased. Short - term hot metal is expected to be supported, and iron ore restocking demand may be released, so iron ore prices are strong. Scrap steel supply increased while demand remained stable, with limited downside space after price drops, and is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - After profit recovery and environmental relaxation, coke supply stabilized. Short - term steel mill demand remained strong, and total inventory continued to decline, but cost support for spot prices weakened, and the market expected price cuts. Coke futures are expected to follow coking coal in oscillation. Coking coal's fundamentals have not significantly weakened, and downstream winter restocking is expected after spot price corrections. The near - month contracts are affected by delivery and are expected to oscillate, while the far - month contracts are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [3] Alloy - Manganese silicon has strong cost support, but the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels. Silicon iron's cost supports the price bottom, but oversupply restricts the upside, and it is also expected to trade around cost levels [4][7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass supply may be disrupted, but mid - and downstream inventories are relatively high, and the current supply - demand is oversupplied. Without more cold repairs by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress prices, otherwise, prices may rise. Soda ash prices are near cost, with obvious bottom support, but oversupply restricts price increases. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][15] Steel - Spot market transactions were good, steel mill profitability decreased, but production enthusiasm remained high, and steel output slightly increased. Steel demand was resilient, and overall inventory continued to decline, but inventory levels were still higher than the same period last year. The fundamentals are improving, and the futures market has the driving force for a low - level rebound, but the upside is limited due to the off - season and high inventory [10] Iron Ore - Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival rhythm fluctuated greatly. Spot prices mostly rose. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased, arrivals increased this period, and the hurricane affected the arrival rhythm. Hot metal production slightly decreased, and restocking demand has not been significantly released. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [10] Scrap Steel - This week's arrivals slightly increased, and electric furnace profits significantly recovered after the decline in scrap prices and the rise in finished product prices. The total daily consumption of 255 steel mills slightly decreased, and steel mills slightly replenished their inventories. The supply increased while demand remained stable, with limited downside space after price drops, and it is expected to oscillate [11] Coke - Futures followed coking coal in oscillation. Spot prices declined, and supply slightly increased after the improvement of coking profits and the end of environmental restrictions. Demand was weakening as hot metal production declined slightly. Inventory at coke enterprises slightly increased but remained low. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal in oscillation [12][13] Coking Coal - Futures were under pressure and oscillated. Spot prices of some varieties declined. Domestic supply remained low, and the fundamentals have not significantly weakened. There is restocking demand for downstream winter storage after price corrections. The near - month contracts are affected by delivery and are expected to oscillate, while the far - month contracts are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [14] Manganese Silicon - Futures prices rose and then fell. Spot market transactions were average, and manufacturers were under cost pressure. Cost support remained strong, but the oversupply situation was difficult to reverse, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels [17] Silicon Iron - Futures prices rose and then fell. Spot market transactions needed improvement. Cost support was strong, but oversupply restricted the upside, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both weak, with slow inventory depletion for industrial silicon and high inventory levels for polysilicon. Industrial silicon is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations in the short term, while polysilicon is expected to remain in high - level oscillations, supported by anti - involution policies and market expectations. Attention should be paid to the start - up changes of large northwest factories and the implementation of policies [6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated significantly this week. As of November 21, 2025, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract showed a weak oscillation, then a sharp rise and fall, and closed at 8960 yuan/ton on November 21 [6]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's start - up rate remained stable, with stable supply. There were few changes in the start - up in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Gansu in the Northwest. Some silicon enterprises in Yunnan reduced or stopped production, with a slight decline in output. Sichuan is in the flat - water period and will enter the dry - water period at the end of the month, with a further decline in the start - up rate. Overall, industrial silicon production decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly start - up of polysilicon enterprises remained stable, with relatively stable demand for industrial silicon. The start - up of organic silicon was basically stable, with a small increase in monomer production capacity recently. After the organic silicon anti - involution meeting, the price increased, but then fell. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises increased slightly, with good downstream order demand. In October, industrial silicon exports were 45,100 tons, a 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year decrease [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 548,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from last week [6]. - **Price Difference**: As of November 21, 2025, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The price difference between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 300 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week [15]. - **Output**: As of November 21, 2025, the number of national industrial silicon open furnaces was 267, a decrease of 3 from the previous week; the start - up rate was 33.13%, a 0.37% decrease; the weekly output was 95,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week [22]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable this week. As of November 21, 2025, the price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract fluctuated sharply at a high level and closed at 53,360 yuan/ton on November 21 [8]. - **Supply**: In November, with the shutdown of a large number of production capacities in Sichuan and Yunnan during the dry - water period, the polysilicon output is expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a significant decrease from October. The output is expected to continue to decline in December [8]. - **Demand**: The current terminal demand is weak. The terminal component prices are weakly stable, while the prices of silicon wafers and battery cells continue to fall. Downstream crystal - pulling enterprises have a low willingness to purchase and only maintain rigid restocking. In October, the polysilicon import volume was 1446.4 tons, a 12% month - on - month increase; in September, the polysilicon export volume was 1547.9 tons, a 28% month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [8]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21, the polysilicon factory inventory was 268,500 tons, an increase of 2800 tons from last week [8]. Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: As of November 21, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.25, 1.25, 1.275, and 1.575 yuan/piece respectively, a decrease of 0.115, 0.115, 0.04, and 0.05 yuan/piece from last week. Overseas demand declined, battery prices accelerated to the bottom, cost - side games increased, and the later decline space may be small [30]. - **Batteries**: As of November 21, 2025, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.295, 0.295, 0.278, and 0.292 yuan/watt respectively, a decrease of 0.01, 0.01, 0.004, and 0.01 yuan/watt from last week. The battery market continued to be under pressure, demand was low, inventory digestion still needed time, and price competition intensified [34]. - **Components**: As of November 21, 2025, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.68, 0.7, 0.68, and 0.7 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. The component market operated weakly and stably, prices were slightly loose, mainstream enterprises had not made large - scale adjustments, and the market as a whole showed a state of policy support but no demand support [38]. Organic Silicon - As of November 21, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 13,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton from last week. This week, the industry start - up rate was basically stable. After the anti - involution meeting, the price increased, and currently, the high - sentiment has basically been digested by the market [42]. Aluminum Alloy - As of November 21, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from last week. Downstream orders were good, and the start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises increased slightly [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, with some proximal TA devices under maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester load increased, inventory was depleted, basis strengthened slightly, and spot processing fees improved. PX domestic start - up increased, overseas devices reduced load, PXN strengthened, and cost - end PX had a good pattern. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of positive spreads at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. - For MEG, with domestic oil - based production increasing load and coal - based production having some maintenance and load reduction, overall start - up declined. With supply load reduction and high polyester start - up, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. There are opportunities for short - term selling of put options, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is limited due to high export growth, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term as the downstream enters the off - season and new devices are about to be put into production. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, with stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump rubber prices affected by rainfall, the strategy is to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by 0.8, PTA spot price decreased by 15, and PTA processing fee increased by 41. The average daily trading basis for PTA was 2601(-61) [2]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million - ton device and Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device were under maintenance [2]. - **Market Outlook**: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state, downstream has no obvious pressure, and with India revoking the BIS certification, the inventory accumulation slope is not high. There are opportunities for positive spreads at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 3, the inner - market price decreased by 33, and the coal - based MEG profit decreased by 47.08 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device and Huayi's 200,000 - ton device were under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarted [2]. - **Market Outlook**: With supply load reduction and high polyester start - up, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. There are short - term opportunities for selling put options, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 30, and the short - fiber profit decreased by 7 [2]. - **Device Operation**: The start - up rate was stable at 97.5%, production and sales improved slightly, and inventory was basically flat [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term inventory pressure is limited due to high export growth, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term as the downstream enters the off - season and new devices are about to be put into production. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 5, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 10 [5]. - **Market Outlook**: With stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump rubber prices affected by rainfall, the strategy is to wait and see [5]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 8 [8]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene remained at 45, and the domestic profits of EPS, PS, and ABS remained unchanged [8].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Chlor-alkali Industry**: The PVC market is facing significant challenges due to weak real estate demand and export uncertainties. As of mid-October, the profit from externally sourced calcium carbide for PVC has further declined, reaching below negative 300 yuan, and expanding to a range of negative 350 to 400 yuan [1][3]. - **Soda Ash**: The industry is expected to see new capacity coming online in 2025, maintaining supply pressure. Soda ash prices have slightly decreased to around 2,450 yuan, with ECU profits falling to the range of 200 to 300 yuan, which is an improvement compared to August and September [1][6]. Key Points on PVC Market - **Capacity and Production**: By 2025, PVC capacity is projected to reach 33.94 million tons, with an increase of 2.6 million tons, marking an 8.3% growth, the highest in nearly a decade. However, weak real estate demand and export uncertainties are expected to keep the market fundamentals weak [2][4]. - **Inventory Levels**: PVC inventory levels are significantly higher than in previous years, with the latest inventory at 505,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 25%. High inventory is attributed to new capacity, reduced maintenance, and insufficient demand [5]. - **Export Outlook**: The export volume is expected to slightly decline in Q4 compared to Q3 due to the Indian anti-dumping policy being a core variable. However, the recent removal of BS certification requirements for PVC by India may reduce export volatility [4]. Key Points on Soda Ash Market - **Production and Supply**: The soda ash industry plans to add 1.5 million tons of new capacity in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%. Current production is stable, with weekly output maintaining around 80,000 tons [6][8]. - **Export Performance**: From January to September 2025, soda ash exports reached approximately 3.098 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 46%, primarily to the overseas alumina industry [10]. - **Domestic Demand**: The domestic alumina industry maintains a high operating rate, supporting strong demand for soda ash. The textile and dyeing industry has also seen a recovery, contributing to stable soda ash demand [11][12]. LPG Market Insights - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: In November, delays in port operations reduced LPG imports, but increased pressure is expected in late November. The PDH units' maintenance has led to a temporary decline in demand, but a recovery is anticipated in December [14][15]. - **Import Trends**: Domestic LPG production is expected to be around 40 million tons, with net imports of 19.4 million tons, accounting for 48% of total supply. The impact of U.S. tariffs has significantly reduced the share of U.S. LPG imports [15]. Natural Rubber Market Overview - **Price Stability**: Natural rubber prices have stabilized between 15,000 and 15,500 yuan. Despite concerns about inventory accumulation, current absolute inventory levels are not high, and no significant accumulation has been observed [24][25]. - **Demand Growth**: From January to September, natural rubber imports increased by 20%, indicating strong consumption. The total inventory levels are similar to last year, suggesting that the increased imports have been absorbed by the market [29]. - **Market Sentiment**: The market is currently dominated by short positions, with significant short interest remaining. However, the absence of strong long positions indicates a potential for price volatility [34][36]. Conclusion - The chlor-alkali and natural rubber markets are facing various challenges, including high inventory levels and weak demand. The soda ash market shows some resilience due to strong domestic demand, while the LPG market is adjusting to supply chain pressures. Overall, careful monitoring of export policies and domestic demand trends will be crucial for future market performance.

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]

| 《八 国を期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月20日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | なな☆ | F3066912 Z0016785 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | | | F03107558 Z0021515 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 11月稀释沥青贴水降至-11美元/桶，成本支撑持续走弱。11月以来周度出货量环比走低，亦处于近四年同期低 位。最新商业库存去化继续放缓,且社会库存在10月底出现同比偏高的拐点后同比幅度呈扩大趋势。"十四 五"收官之年赶工需求预期证伪,后续需求将遵循季节性走弱规律,年末需求不及去年同期的负面信号出现, 市场看跌气氛增加,中长期基本面对BU存在利空压制。 【液化石油气】 12月国际液化气进口成本价格预 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The lithium carbonate futures market showed an increase in positions and prices, driven by inventory reduction and optimistic consumption expectations. However, with the potential resumption of mining production, attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and mining resumes, inventory may shift from reduction to accumulation. Currently, the market is highly volatile, and the downstream's acceptance of spot prices is limited, so the risk of further chasing high prices is relatively large [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 93,800 yuan/ton and closed at 99,300 yuan/ton, with a 4.97% change in the closing price compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,767,428 lots, and the open interest was 503,132 lots, an increase from the previous trading day's 484,357 lots. The current basis was -10,880 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 26,766 lots, a change of 155 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,400 - 92,400 yuan/ton, a change of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 84,600 - 88,400 yuan/ton, a change of 1,450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,200 US dollars/ton, a change of 60 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The lithium carbonate futures price reached 100,000 yuan/ton, with positive bullish sentiment on the disk [2]. - On November 19, Liontown held a lithium spodumene concentrate auction. The auction item was 10,000 wet tons of 5.2% lithium spodumene, and the final transaction price was CIF SC6 1,254 US dollars/dry ton, with the goods expected to be shipped in the first half of January 2026 [3]. - As of the end of October 2025, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (guns) in China reached 18.645 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.0%. Among them, the number of public charging facilities (guns) was 4.533 million, a year - on - year increase of 39.5%, with a total rated power of 20.3 billion kilowatts and an average power of about 44.69 kilowatts; the number of private charging facilities (guns) was 14.112 million, a year - on - year increase of 59.4%, and the reported power consumption capacity of private charging facilities reached 124 million kVA [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of the lithium spodumene and salt lake ends both above 60%. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the same level as in October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [2]. - On the demand side, both the commercial and passenger new energy vehicles in the power market grew rapidly, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand, with supply remaining tight. The production schedules of battery cells and cathode materials continued to improve in November, and it is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to show inventory reduction in November [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach, pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of mining production, and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices [4]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 现货成交呈现区域性差异 铅价呈现震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-18，LME铅现货升水为-16.88美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至17150 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-100 元/吨至17225元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至17150元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-125元/吨至17200元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化-25元/吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至 10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-18，沪铅主力合约开于17365元/吨，收于17230元/吨，较前一交易日变化-125元/吨，全天交易 日成交55068手，较前一交易日变化-19523手，全天交易日持仓69126手，手较前一交易日变化-5459手，日内价格 震荡，最高点达到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - Currently, the industry's supply - demand situation is marginally weakening, in line with the characteristics of the off - season. This fundamental pattern is expected to continue, providing limited guidance on price trends. In the short term, the market will maintain an oscillatory trend. If there are still positive macro and policy signals in the later stage, staged upward opportunities can be observed [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased significantly on a month - on - month basis. Both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries have seen growth. After reaching a peak, the arrival volume has continued to decline on a month - on - month basis. Port inventory has slightly decreased. Although iron ore replenishment demand has not been significantly released, there is still upward momentum in the short term after the previous rapid price decline. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with the finished products [2] Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices are in a dilemma of rising or falling, and the coke futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [3] Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Steel - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have started, which will affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are generally good, but the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the production volume has decreased significantly. The demand has declined from a high level, and the overall inventory of steel continues to decline, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the futures will oscillate widely [7] Iron Ore - Port arrivals have declined on a month - on - month basis, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the average arrival volume is relatively stable. The daily average pig iron production has recovered on a month - on - month basis, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The overall inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. In the short term, after the previous rapid price decline, it is expected to oscillate strongly [8] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has slightly increased this week. The demand for scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased, while the demand in blast furnaces has decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, but the price has a certain cost - performance after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate with the finished products [9] Coke - After four rounds of price increases, the coking profit has improved, and the supply is temporarily stable. The demand is still supported, and the upstream inventory is low. In the short term, the supply - demand is still tight, and the inventory continues to decline, but the cost support has weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [11] Coking Coal - The supply is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13] Glass - The supply is expected to be disrupted. The inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] Soda Ash - The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - The price of ferromanganese - silicon is supported by cost in the short term, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [17] Ferrosilicon - The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention through a decline in exports when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, high port inventories are suppressing prices. Overseas production remains high, and the supply pressure persists while demand is weak. It's expected that inventories will be hard to reduce in the short term, and prices may decline further. Given the current significant and rapid drop, it's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large internal - external price differences and low domestic prices. Domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. New export policies have improved the market atmosphere, and inventories are being reduced. It's expected that the downside space is limited, and the market will mainly bottom out through oscillations [9]. - For natural rubber, a short - term long - bias trading strategy is recommended, and a partial position can be established for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the fundamental situation is poor. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are turning negative. There is a continuous inventory build - up pressure. It's advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward correction. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, and the production of styrene is increasing. Styrene port inventories are decreasing significantly, and prices may stop falling in stages [17]. - For polyethylene, the crude oil price may have bottomed out, and the downward valuation space of PE is limited. However, a high number of warehouse receipts is suppressing the market. Overall inventories are being reduced from a high level, and prices may remain in a low - level oscillation [20]. - For polypropylene, the cost - end supply surplus may expand. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Overall inventory pressure is high, and the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. - For PX, it's expected to have a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending for gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. There are opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [26]. - For PTA, there will be continuous inventory build - up in November due to new device launches, and processing fees will be under pressure. The polyester load is unlikely to increase significantly. There are opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [28][29]. - For ethylene glycol, there will be continuous inventory build - up in the fourth quarter. Valuation is relatively low and may be further compressed. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 2.70 yuan/barrel, a 0.59% increase, at 458.10 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 24.00 yuan/ton, a 0.92% decrease, at 2593.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 14.00 yuan/ton, a 0.43% increase, at 3236.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data shows a 0.41 - million - barrel decrease in arrival inventory to 206.43 million barrels, a 0.20% decline; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.34 million barrels to 86.96 million barrels, a 1.52% decline; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.60 million barrels to 95.60 million barrels, a 0.62% decline; and total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 182.57 million barrels, a 1.05% decline [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 32, remained stable in southern Shandong, decreased by 20 in Inner Mongolia, and the 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 26 yuan to 2029 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 14. The 1 - 5 spread was - 8, reported at - 116 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see due to high inventories, high overseas production, weak demand, and potential price decline [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, decreased by 10 in Henan, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 10 yuan to 1662 yuan, with a basis of - 72. The 1 - 5 spread was 0, reported at - 75 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is sensitive to positive news. Domestic demand is weak, and supply is high. New export policies have improved the situation, and the market will mainly bottom out through oscillations [9]. Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rebounded in oscillations. Typhoons affected rainfall in the Thai production area, and the November warehouse receipts of natural rubber on the Shanghai Exchange will expire and be out of storage. The market has a positive expectation. The long - side believes in limited production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China, while the short - side points out uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal weak demand, and potential under - performance of supply benefits. As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.70%, 0.84 percentage points lower than last week but 5.70 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.37%, 0.08 percentage points lower than last week and 4.38 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of November 9, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 105.63 tons, a 0.03 - ton increase (0.03% increase); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.43 tons, a 0.97% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.21 tons, a 1.52% decrease. The total inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.24 tons to 43.87 tons. In the spot market, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14600 (+50) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1830 (+5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1820 (+5) dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 6950 (+0) yuan, and the price of cis - polybutadiene in North China was 10000 (+100) yuan [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a short - term long - bias trading strategy and partially establish a hedge position [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 7 yuan to 4601 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4510 (-10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 91 (-2) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 315 (-5) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 870 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 735 (-5) dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.5%, a 2.2% decrease; the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.4% decrease; the ethylene method was 73.3%, a 6.4% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.5%, a 0.1% decrease. Factory inventory was 32.2 tons (-1.2), and social inventory was 102.8 tons (-1.3) [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation is poor, and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5375 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract increased by 22 yuan/ton to 5547 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 173 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan decrease. The spot price of styrene increased by 125 yuan/ton to 6450 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract increased by 46 yuan/ton to 6496 yuan/ton, and the basis was 0 yuan/ton, a 112 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 106.87 yuan/ton, a 20.12 - yuan increase. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 363.25 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The EB 1 - 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a 2.31% increase. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.45 tons to 17.48 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 41.00%, a 0.21% increase; the PS operating rate was 55.40%, a 1.90% increase; the EPS operating rate was 51.63%, a 2.32% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.80%, a 0.20% increase [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward correction, and styrene prices may stop falling in stages [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 6843 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 6865 yuan/ton, and the basis was 12 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 83.72%, a 1.95% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory increased by 3.90 tons to 52.92 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.01 tons to 5.00 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 0.05% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan/ton, a 13 - yuan expansion [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price may have bottomed out, and PE valuation has limited downward space. However, high warehouse receipts are suppressing the market, and prices will remain in a low - level oscillation [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 7 yuan to 6467 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 6525 yuan/ton, and the basis was 51 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 80.82%, a 1.34% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory increased by 2.01 tons to 62 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.13 tons to 21.73 tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.23 tons to 6.69 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 53.14%, a 0.52% increase. The LL - PP spread was 376 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan decrease [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - end supply surplus may expand. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Wait for the change in the supply - surplus situation at the cost end in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 6796 yuan, the CFR price decreased by 1 dollar to 831 dollars, and the basis was - 13 yuan (+1), the 1 - 3 spread was - 24 yuan (-2). The PX load in China was 86.8%, a 3% decrease; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 1.7% decrease. Shanghai Petrochemical stopped production, Sinochem Quanzhou had an unexpected early maintenance, and Vietnam's NSRP plans to reduce production for 2 weeks this weekend. The PTA load was 75.7%, a 0.7% decrease. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 14.5 tons of PX to China in early November, a 1.8 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons, a 10.8 - ton increase month - on - month. The PXN was 255 dollars (-2), the South Korean PX - MX was 99 dollars (-1), and the naphtha crack spread was 106 dollars (-1) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect a slight inventory build - up in November, but there are opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 8 yuan to 4692 yuan, the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 4615 yuan, the basis was - 73 yuan (+2), the 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 75.7%, a 0.7% decrease. The downstream load was 90.5%, a 0.8% decrease. Terminal draw - texturing load remained unchanged at 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 74%. On November 7, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 222.7 tons, a 2 - ton increase. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 15 yuan to 165 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 1 yuan to 234 yuan [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There will be continuous inventory build - up in November, and processing fees will be under pressure. There are opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [28][29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 16 yuan to 3938 yuan, the East China spot price remained unchanged at 3980 yuan, the basis was 42 yuan (-11), the 1 - 5 spread was - 85 yuan (+6). The supply - end operating rate of ethylene glycol was 71.6%, a 0.9% decrease; the synthetic gas method was 68%, a 4.3% decrease; the ethylene method was 73.6%, a 0.9% increase. Import arrival forecast was 18.1 tons, and the average daily departure from East China ports from November 14 - 16 was 0.9 tons. Port inventory was 73.2 tons, a 7.1 - ton increase. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 826 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 614 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 150 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 735 dollars, and the price of lump coal in Yulin decreased to 650 yuan [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect continuous inventory build - up in the fourth quarter, and consider short - selling on rallies [31].