有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/12 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/05 210 4659 115035 30936 -860.77 -63.25 38.0 46.0 23.05 162550 63850 2025/12/08 145 3804 115035 29956 -857.49 -131.15 40.0 46.0 8.19 164550 63175 2025/12/09 110 4266 115035 29531 -838.94 -8.32 40.0 46.0 0.00 165675 63100 2025/12/10 35 4271 115035 28931 -1168.76 -70.55 41.0 48.0 11.69 164975 65400 2025/12/11 5 4282 115035 31461 -1540.94 -17.07 41.0 48.0 24.76 165850 66650 变化 -30 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central economic work conference has a positive tone, and the improvement of demand expectations may boost basic metals. In the short - to - medium term, positive macro - expectations and supply disruption concerns continue to support prices. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin remain, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [1]. - For different metals, the report gives specific views: copper prices will oscillate and rise; alumina prices will continue to be under pressure; aluminum prices will oscillate and rise; alloy prices will oscillate at a high level; zinc prices will oscillate at a high level; lead prices will stabilize and rebound; nickel prices will run weakly; stainless - steel prices will correct; tin prices will oscillate and strengthen [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: The Fed continues to cut interest rates, and copper prices oscillate and rise, showing a trend of being oscillatory and strong in the medium - term [6][7][8]. - **Analysis**: The Fed cuts interest rates and restarts balance - sheet expansion, providing liquidity support. The supply of copper ore is tight, and CSPT will reduce the production capacity of mine copper by more than 10% in 2026. The terminal demand is weak, but the spot is at a premium, and the overseas squeeze on positions boosts prices [6][7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure, with an expected oscillatory trend [8][9]. - **Analysis**: High - cost production capacity fluctuates, and there are short - term disturbances, but the supply contraction is insufficient, with strong inventory accumulation. Raw material prices are weak, and the futures - spot price difference is large. Although the valuation is low, the price may still be under pressure [9]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Aluminum inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices oscillate and rise, showing an oscillatory and strong trend in the short - term and a potential upward shift of the price center in the medium - term [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The macro - environment is complex, with fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations. The domestic production capacity is high, while overseas supply may tighten in the long - term. The terminal demand is stable, and the inventory is decreasing [12][13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Cost support continues, and the market oscillates at a high level, with an oscillatory and strong trend in the short - and medium - term [14][15]. - **Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The supply side has production reduction risks, while the demand side shows marginal improvement, and the inventory shows a mixed trend [14][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: Social inventory has decreased, and zinc prices oscillate at a high level, with an overall oscillatory trend [16][18][19]. - **Analysis**: The Fed's dovish stance and weak economic data increase the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory may not accumulate, but there is still a potential for price decline in the long - term [18][19]. 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: Social inventory remains at a low level, and lead prices stabilize and rebound, showing an oscillatory trend [20][21]. - **Analysis**: The spot premium is stable, and the supply of lead ingots is tight in some regions. The demand from the battery industry is relatively good, and the inventory is at a low level [20][21]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: LME inventory remains at a high level, and nickel prices run weakly, showing an oscillatory trend [21][23]. - **Analysis**: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening. The overall supply of nickel resources is loose, and the inventory is high, but there are potential supply - side policy risks [21][23]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: Weak nickel prices drive the stainless - steel market to correct, with an expected range - bound oscillation [24]. - **Analysis**: The cost support of nickel iron is strengthening, but the stainless - steel production is expected to decline in December. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, but the profit compression and cost support limit the price decline [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: Supply concerns remain unresolved, and tin prices oscillate and strengthen [25][27]. - **Analysis**: The supply of tin is tight, with slow复产 in mines, restricted exports from Indonesia, and limited production in Africa. The demand is growing in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries, which will push up the price [26][27]. 3.2行情监测 - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (non - ferrous metals index) are presented, with specific values and changes on December 11, 2025 [154][156].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar weakened again, with a daily decline of 1.32%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Currently, rebar supply has been continuously shrinking at a low level, supporting steel prices, but demand is also weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production changes of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil weakened and declined, with a daily decline of 1.19%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, the industrial contradiction has not been alleviated, and the inventory reduction pressure is relatively large, so the hot - rolled coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the weak reality pattern, the hot - rolled coil will continue to operate in a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fell from a high level, with a daily decline of 1.30%, and both volume and open interest decreased. Currently, short - term positive factors support the iron ore price to return to a high level, but the demand for iron ore continues to decline while the supply remains at a high level. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the iron ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Dynamics - According to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 17 key real - estate enterprises from January to November 2025 were 119.9231 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.4%. In November, the total sales were 10.0593 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 32.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.5%. In November, there were 14 real - estate enterprises with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan. Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Overseas Land & Investment ranked in the top three with sales of 240.866 billion yuan, 223.5 billion yuan, and 211.399 billion yuan respectively. From January to November, only China Jinmao achieved year - on - year growth in sales, with a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. The sales of the other 16 real - estate enterprises decreased year - on - year, among which Gemdale Group had the largest decline, with a year - on - year decrease of 56.3% [7]. - According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November, China's automobile production and sales continued to perform well, and both production and sales increased month - on - month and year - on - year. In November, China's monthly automobile production exceeded 3.5 million for the first time, setting a new historical high. In the first 11 months of this year, both automobile production and sales exceeded 31 million, with a year - on - year growth of over 10%. From January to November this year, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China were both close to 15 million, with a year - on - year growth of over 30%. In terms of exports, new - energy vehicle exports reached 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [8]. - Starting from 16:00 on December 11, 2025, Handan City lifted the orange warning level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather as the atmospheric diffusion conditions gradually improved [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,240 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,160 yuan, down 20 yuan; the national average price was 3,298 yuan, down 3 yuan [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price was 3,250 yuan, down 30 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,200 yuan, up 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,297 yuan, down 10 yuan [10]. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,960 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,070 yuan, down 10 yuan [10]. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 777 yuan, down 6 yuan [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis): The price was 783 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Ocean freight: The Australian freight was 11.34 yuan, down 0.42 yuan; the Brazilian freight was 24.01 yuan, down 0.82 yuan [10]. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 106.54 yuan, up 0.59 yuan [10]. - Platts Index (CFR, 62%): The price was 106.40 yuan, up 0.90 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,069 yuan, a decline of 1.32%. The highest price was 3,118 yuan, the lowest price was 3,061 yuan, the trading volume was 1,360,006 lots, a decrease of 159,246 lots, and the open interest was 1,602,075 lots, an increase of 87,857 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,238 yuan, a decline of 1.19%. The highest price was 3,283 yuan, the lowest price was 3,236 yuan, the trading volume was 630,010 lots, a decrease of 57,172 lots, and the open interest was 1,148,348 lots, an increase of 42,440 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 757.0 yuan, a decline of 1.30%. The highest price was 771.0 yuan, the lowest price was 754.5 yuan, the trading volume was 324,951 lots, a decrease of 54,852 lots, and the open interest was 468,056 lots, a decrease of 1,378 lots [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory), and steel - mill production situation (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, etc.) [16][21][32] 5.后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 105,300 tons month - on - month, and supply has continuously shrunk to a low level, supporting steel prices, but the sustainability of short - process steel mill production cuts needs to be tracked. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 138,900 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency daily transactions are weakly stable. Both are at low levels in recent years, and downstream conditions have not improved. It is expected that demand will continue to weaken seasonally, putting pressure on steel prices. Overall, rebar supply is continuously shrinking at a low level, supporting steel prices, but demand is also weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production changes of steel mills [42]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern remains weak. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 56,000 tons month - on - month, and supply has continuously shrunk from a high level, but the inventory level is high, and the pressure relief is limited. Meanwhile, hot - rolled coil demand remains weak, with weak weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions. The relatively positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products has continued to increase, supporting demand, but there are concerns about external demand due to export policy disturbances. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, the industrial contradiction has not been alleviated, and the inventory reduction pressure is relatively large. The hot - rolled coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the weak reality pattern, the hot - rolled coil will continue to operate in a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [42]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. At the end of the year, more steel mills are under maintenance, and the terminal demand for iron ore continues to decline. The average daily hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased again last week, and the decline rate has increased. Moreover, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and iron ore demand is expected to remain weak, putting pressure on iron ore prices. Meanwhile, the arrival volume at domestic ports has continued to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have increased month - on - month, and both are still at high levels within the year. Overseas iron ore supply is active. Even though domestic ore supply is seasonally shrinking, iron ore supply remains high. In short, short - term positive factors support the iron ore price to return to a high level, but iron ore demand continues to decline while the supply remains at a high level. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the iron ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [43].

根据Tr e n dFo r c e集邦咨询最新发布的存储现货价格趋势报告，DRAM方面，DDR5和DDR3现货 价 格 本 周 小 幅 回 落 ， 此 前 的 快 速 上 涨 促 使 部 分 交 易 商 在 年 底 获 利 了 结 ； 而 DDR4 价 格 则 继 续 攀 升，尤其是1 6Gb产品。与此同时，NAND闪存的关键支撑来自供应端，由于供应商在年底临近 之际并未发布更多Wa f e r，在市场活动受限的情况下，现货价格持续走高。 本周( 1 2 / 3 - 1 2 / 9 )以来，DDR5与DDR3部分因为先前价格快速拉高、涨势过快，近期略微出现小 幅下跌。Tr e n dFo r c e观察到，部分交易商因为年终将近，进行部分获利调节，但不影响整体市况 吃紧态势。 DDR4部分价格持续上涨，尤其以1 6Gb颗粒为最。近期现货价格的变化不影响1Q2 6合约价格仍 将大幅上涨的预测。主流颗粒DDR4 1Gx 8 3 2 0 0MT/s在本周的价格涨幅为2 . 0 0%(由US$ 1 6 . 7 2 9 上涨至US$ 1 7 . 0 6 4 )。 本周( 1 2 / 3 - 1 2 / 9 )Wa f ...

目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 成本端来看，多晶硅N型料行业平均成本为38700元/吨，生产利润为12300元/吨。 供给端排产短期有所减少，中期有望恢复，需求端硅片生产持续减少，电池片生产持续减 6、预期: 少，组件生产持续减少，总体需求表现为持续衰退。成本支撑有所持稳。多晶硅2605:在 55035-56795区间震荡. 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比有所减少3.29%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.2万吨，环比减少12.19%.需求持续低迷. 多晶硅库存为29.1万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为12 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-11 郑棉持续震荡，糖价依旧承压 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13780元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨，幅度+0.29%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14830元/吨，较前一日变动-13元/吨，现货基差CF01+1050，较前一日变动-53；3128B棉全国均价15004元/吨， 较前一日变动+5元/吨，现货基差CF01+1224，较前一日变动-35。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）最新发布的12月份全球棉花供需预测报告，2025/26年度全球棉花产量环 比调减；消费环比调减；叠加期初库存增加，本年度期末库存环比微增。从本年度主产棉国调整情况来看，总体 调整以美国为主，其他国家产消数据环比基本持平。2024/25年度供需预测中，全球棉花总产预期环比基本持平， 消费预期小幅调减，出口预期小幅减幅，上年度期末库存小幅增加。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价偏强震荡。国际方面，当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲 软，短期ICE美棉仍将承压。中长期看，美棉已处于低估值区间，进一步下跌的空间预计不大，但向上驱动暂不 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 3 3、库存: 社会库存为74.5万吨，环比减少3.74%，厂内库存为58.8万吨，环比增加1.20%，港口稀释沥青库存 为库存为67万吨，环比增加17.54%。社会库存持续去库，厂内库存持续累库，港口库存持续累库。 中性。 4、盘面: MA20向下，02合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净空，空减。 偏空。 每日观点 利多：原油成本相对高位，略有支撑。 利空：高价货源需求不足；整体需求下行，欧美经济衰退预期加强。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内 石油沥青样本 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others. It suggests that geopolitical factors are likely to be the main drivers of the market in December. While some products show short - term positive trends, others face supply - demand imbalances and potential risks. Overall, it advises different trading strategies for each product based on their fundamentals and technical analysis [3][5]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro drivers have a weak impact on the market. The mid - term supply surplus is the main trend, but the market still trades based on supply - demand changes. Macro factors are short - term positive, and geopolitical factors are likely to be the main drivers in December. Short - term bullish but difficult to trade due to geopolitical risks; mid - term, look for shorting opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [4][5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it decreased slightly with reduced positions, and the short - term structure remains unchanged. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [5]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply decreased due to increased maintenance after a significant profit decline, and inventory reduction supported the rebound. However, further upward movement requires support from the cost side (crude oil). Mid - term, the port inventory is at a five - year high, and there is a high probability of inventory reaching a new high in February if the demand remains weak after the New Year [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. Today, it corrected with increased positions, and the structure became unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [9]. Rubber - **Logic**: There is no major contradiction in the short - term. Tire demand is unlikely to increase significantly, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia. The inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing, and there is no obvious upward or downward driver. Consider it as an oscillating market [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased with reduced positions, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core factor is the raw material butadiene. The price of butadiene is low recently, leading to short - term improvement in supply - demand and reduced pressure. However, there is still a risk of liquid chemical inventory over - filling in the mid - term due to high supply and inventory [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased with increased positions, and the hourly - level remains in an oscillating state. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [12]. PX - **Logic**: The overseas spread has weakened significantly, and the anti - seasonal US aromatics blending oil logic has ended, reducing the upward driving force. However, the supply - demand of PX is still relatively strong among energy - chemical products. Pay attention to the impact of the cost side (crude oil) [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it continued to correct with reduced positions, but the short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 6700. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss at 6700, and look for secondary entry opportunities for non - entered long positions after the correction ends [17][18]. PTA - **Logic**: The overseas spread has weakened significantly, and the anti - seasonal US aromatics blending oil logic has ended, reducing the upward driving force. PTA continues to reduce inventory, and the short - term supply - demand pressure is not large. Pay attention to the cost side [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it tested the short - term support with reduced positions, and the short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support for the 01 contract is at 4620. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss at 4620 (01 contract), and look for secondary entry opportunities for non - entered long positions after the correction ends [18]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is still weak without a reversal driver. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions. The short - term downward structure remains, and the short - term pressure above is at 6220. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [21]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable but weak. The port inventory has been decreasing, but the rate of decrease slowed down last week, and the inventory is still at a high level. The upward space is limited, and the previous upward driving force has ended. No longer consider short - term long positions [23][25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the short - term is in an oscillation. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term structure is unclear. The 05 contract is weaker than the 01 contract, indicating high inventory pressure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [25]. PVC - **Logic**: There are few future maintenance plans, and high production is maintained. However, the profit has declined, and there are more expectations of production cuts. The demand side (downstream real estate) is not optimistic, and the social inventory is at a high level. The supply - demand has no upward reversal driver, but the valuation is low, so there is no value in chasing short positions [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions. Pay attention to the short - term pressure above at 4445. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: The previous domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, and new production capacity has been put into operation, increasing the supply pressure. Downstream polyester demand is stable, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. The supply - demand driving force is downward. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. Pay attention to the short - term pressure above at 3720. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [30]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is still weak without a reversal driver. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is at 6670. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [32]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the downstream glass production lines have cut production, suppressing the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward driving force remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions is reduced [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above has moved down to 1120. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle cautiously with a stop - profit at 1120 [35]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply production is at a high level, and the weekly production has increased year - on - year, reaching a new high. It is the off - season for traditional downstream demand, and the demand from alumina has weakened due to reduced production. The inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks, reaching a new historical high year - on - year. The supply - demand driving force is downward without a reversal, but there is no space to chase short - positions before an obvious rebound [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it rebounded with reduced positions, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above is at 2135. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [37].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot indicates only two rate cuts planned for 2025 [3] - International spot gold peaked at $4230 per ounce before retreating to close at $4198 per ounce, with New York gold futures down 0.23% [3] - The main contract for silver in Shanghai closed at 13920 yuan/ton, up 4.06%, marking a three-month high, driven by a 12% increase in silver procurement by photovoltaic component companies [4] Group 2 - The main contract for焦煤 (coking coal) closed at 1132 yuan/ton, down 1.48%, while焦炭 (coke) closed at 1628 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [6] - The main contract for螺纹钢 (rebar) closed at 3175 yuan/ton, up 0.47%, indicating a slight increase in winter storage demand among steel mills [7] - The main contract for iron ore closed at 775 yuan/ton, down 1.09%, with port inventories rising to 138 million tons, a three-month high [8] Group 3 - The main contract for玉米 (corn) reported at 2312 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan (0.61%), reaching a nearly one-year high [11] - The main contract for大豆 (soybeans) fell by 1.32% to 4020 yuan/ton, influenced by higher-than-expected import volumes and weak demand from pig farming [13] - The main contract for红枣 (red dates) rose 1.82% to 9393 yuan/ton, supported by a confirmed 12% reduction in production from major producing areas [13] Group 4 - WTI crude oil fell by 1.07% to $58.25 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 0.88% to $61.94 per barrel [15] - The main contract for甲醇 (methanol) closed at 2092 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, with domestic operating rates decreasing to 86.5% [15] - The main contract for多晶硅 (polysilicon) closed at 8560 yuan/ton, down 0.35%, with trading rules adjustments leading to reduced speculative activity [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil overnight retraced its previous gains without any news, remaining in a sideways pattern awaiting geopolitical drivers. The geopolitical situation suggests a pessimistic outlook for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and there is an upward revision risk if the negotiation fails again. There is also an expectation of an escalation of risks in the Caribbean region, which could lead to a pulse - like upward movement [1][3]. - For the chemical sector, the aromatics (PX, PTA, EB) that were previously bullish have seen a weakening of the upward drive as overseas crack spreads have declined significantly. However, PX still has a relatively healthy fundamental situation, and styrene has seen short - term supply - demand improvement due to inventory reduction [1]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Logic**: The impact of supply - demand and macro - drivers on the crude oil market is still weak, with a mid - term oversupply expectation. However, there was trading based on supply - demand changes after last week's unexpected inventory build in EIA data. Macro factors are currently bullish, and geopolitical factors may be the main driver in December. Short - term outlook is bullish but difficult to trade, and there will be mid - term short - selling opportunities after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply has decreased due to more maintenance after a significant profit decline, leading to inventory reduction and supply - demand improvement. However, further upward movement requires support from crude oil prices. Mid - term inventory is at a five - year high, and there is a high risk of inventory over - build if demand remains weak after the New Year [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait for a pull - back without breaking the support at 6520 and then look for a long - entry opportunity [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: There is no major contradiction in the short term. Tire demand has limited growth potential, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia, with normal inventory build - up in Qingdao. The market should be viewed with a sideways outlook [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core factor is the price of raw material butadiene. Short - term supply - demand has improved as downstream replenished inventory due to low butadiene prices, but there is still mid - term inventory pressure [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [11]. PX - **Logic**: The upward drive has weakened as the off - season US aromatics blending oil logic has ended. However, PX supply - demand remains strong, with high operating rates, no new plant commissioning in the short term, and rising downstream PTA operating rates. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil prices [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 6700 and look for opportunities to add positions after the pull - back ends [14]. PTA - **Logic**: The upward drive has weakened as the off - season US aromatics blending oil logic has ended. PTA is still reducing inventory, and short - term supply - demand pressure is low. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil prices [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 4620 (01 contract) and look for a second long - entry opportunity after the pull - back ends [18]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is high and demand is weak, with no sign of a reversal. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [20]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol operating rates remain high, and downstream demand is weak. Although port inventory has decreased, the rate of decrease has slowed, and inventory is still at a high level. The previous upward drive has ended, and the supply - demand logic is still weak [22][24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [24]. PVC - **Logic**: There are few future maintenance plans, and high operating rates are maintained. However, there is an increasing expectation of production cuts due to falling profits. Demand from the downstream real estate sector is weak, and social and factory inventories are high. The valuation is low, and there is no value in short - selling [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Domestic operating rates are high due to the resumption of previously shut - down plants and new capacity additions. Downstream polyester demand is stable, and the inventory build - up pattern continues. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 3720 [29]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is high and demand is weak, with no sign of a reversal. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 6670 [32]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, and downstream glass production lines have cut production, suppressing demand. Although the downward fundamental drive remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions is decreasing [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a stop - profit at 1155 [35]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply operating rates remain high, and traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. Alumina demand has weakened due to reduced production, and inventory has reached a new high. The supply - demand drive is downward, but there is no space for short - selling before a significant rebound [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 2135 [37].