2026 年 01 月 26 日 二手房成交量价齐升 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） hening@kysec.cn guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070004 供需：开年建筑开工转暖，工业开工有韧性，需求仍弱 1.建筑开工：开工率季节性位置整体回升。最近两周（1 月 11 日至 1 月 24 日）， 水泥发运率、磨机运转率高于 2025 年同期，石油沥青装置开工率处于同期历史 低位。基建项目水泥直供量同比降幅仍大，房建水泥用量则接近 2025 年同期。 资金方面，2026 开年建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2025 年同期。 2.工业生产端，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化表现较弱。最近两周（1 月 11 日至 1 月 24 日），工业开工出现分化，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化 表现较弱。化工链中 PX 开工率维持历史高位，PTA 开工率处于历史中低位，汽 车钢胎开工率处于同期历史中高位，焦化企业开工率降至历史低位。 3.需求端，建筑需求仍弱，汽车、家电销售仍弱。最近两周(1 月 10 日至 1 月 23 日)，螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需 ...

在"十四五"规划圆满收官、"十五五"蓝图蓄势启幕的关键之年，2025年我国经济展现出强大韧性与发展 活力。面对世界经济复苏动力不足，地缘政治冲突多点频发，国际经贸规则体系深刻调整，全球产业链 供应链加速重构的复杂环境，我国国民经济运行稳中有进。2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，我国经 济发展仍处于重要战略机遇期，同时也面临诸多风险挑战。要立足"大宏观"视角，通过强化稳定政策、 增长政策、结构政策之间的协调配合，进一步增强宏观政策取向一致性，提高宏观政策有效性，为推动 经济持续回升向好提供更有力的政策保障。 2025年宏观经济稳中有进 第三，从消费与投资两端发力，补齐需求侧短板。扩大内需不是权宜之计，而是战略之举，要从消费与 投资两端共同发力，着力扩大内需。在消费端，一是通过稳岗扩岗、发展新业态，完善工资增长机制， 夯实居民"能消费"的收入基础；二是加大教育、医疗等民生领域财政投入并深化改革，减轻居民消费的 后顾之忧，增强居民"敢消费"的信心；三是强化消费者权益保护，创新数字、绿色、智能场景，优化居 民"愿消费"的体验环境，并放宽健康、养老、托幼、家政等服务领域准入门槛、优化行业监管，以高质 量供给激发多元 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fluctuated around 103,400 CNY, while London copper traded near 13,200 USD [4][19] - U.S. durable goods orders for November increased by 5.3%, marking the largest growth in six months, which weakened expectations for interest rate cuts and put pressure on copper prices [5][19] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,479 tons to 145,000 tons, while LME copper inventories fell by 1,175 tons to 170,000 tons [5][19] - Short-term copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply expectations, but high inventory levels may limit price increases [5][19] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel and stainless steel market continues to react to Indonesian policy developments, with prices expected to remain high in the short term [6][20] - The Indonesian policy outlook remains tight, with concerns over monopolistic behavior in logistics affecting market sentiment [6][20] - The reference trading range for nickel is set between 140,000 and 160,000 CNY per ton [7][21] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with spot prices stabilizing [8][22] - Supply-side adjustments are being made by high-cost producers, and logistics are tightening ahead of the Spring Festival, limiting further price declines [8][22] - The reference trading range for aluminum is projected between 23,500 and 24,500 CNY per ton [9][24] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, supported by low treatment charges (TC) and market sentiment [10][25] - The reference trading range for zinc is set between 24,500 and 26,000 CNY per ton [10][25] Group 5: Lead Market - The lead market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with supply-demand imbalances persisting [11][25] - The reference trading range for lead is projected between 16,800 and 17,800 CNY per ton [11][25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a significant pullback after reaching new highs, driven by profit-taking and heightened market volatility [12][27] - The reference trading ranges for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are set at 1,120-1,160 CNY per gram, 27,000-29,500 CNY per kilogram, 660-720 CNY per gram, and 480-530 CNY per gram, respectively [12][27]

截至1月23日，单位净值为1.141元。基金经理是缪佳、陶毅和刘星宇。 基金管理人在四季报中表示，宏观方面，四季度经济动能放缓、内外需分化加剧。经济延续供强需弱格局，内需相关的投资、消费均明显走弱，信贷需求持 续乏力，经济核心支撑来自出口韧性。整体通胀水平仍处负值区间，四季度反内卷对PPI的影响边际弱化，CPI受低基数支撑边际修复。政策方面，年末政治 局会议、中央经济工作会议落地，货币政策延续宽松定调、财政保持必要强度，超预期增量指引相对有限。利率方面，四季度机构行为是债市定价主导，收 益率震荡上行。节奏上，10月受海外关税政策反复、央行重启买债支撑，利率震荡下行修复。11月机构止盈情绪升温，利率转为震荡。12月机构赎回情绪进 一步走高，叠加年末大行久期指标压力，债市利率震荡上行。 转债方面，四季度表现区间震荡，中证转债指数小幅上涨1.32%。转债估值在经历9月的剧烈波动后开始趋于稳定，百元平价溢价率保持在30%左右的水平窄 幅震荡。结构上，由于股票风格从大盘成长回归均衡，转债内部分化相对较小，低价指数小幅领涨。节奏上，10月在中美贸易摩擦升级下调整，月底缓解后 恢复上行；11月中旬在北美AI叙事质疑和美联储 ...

After having been in the investing world for more than 25 years from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital; I have pretty much "been there and done that" at one point or another. I am currently a partner at RIA Advisors in Houston, Texas. The majority of my time is spent analyzing, researching and writing commentary about investing, investor psychology and macro-views of the markets and the economy. My thoughts are not generally mainstream and are often contrarian in natur ...

Macroeconomic Overview - In mid-January 2026, prices of 29 out of 50 monitored production materials increased, while 13 decreased and 8 remained stable [1][4] - As of January 23, 2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 6 basis points to 4.24%, with the effective federal funds rate remaining stable at 3.64% [1][4] - In December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the U.S. increased by 50,000, with previous months' figures revised downwards, totaling a downward revision of 76,000 jobs [1][4] - The unemployment rate in December fell to 4.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from November [1][4] - The Eurozone benchmark interest rate remains at 2.15%, while Japan's benchmark rate is at 0.75% [1][4] Bond Market Insights - The yields on both 10-year and 2-year government bonds declined last week, with the 10-year yield down by 0.95 basis points to 1.8298% and the 2-year yield down by 1.13 basis points to 1.3959% as of January 23 [2][5] - As of the end of December, the M2 money supply was 340.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [2][5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 125 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on January 23, with a net liquidity injection of 38.3 billion yuan for the day [2][5] - The total social financing stock was 442.12 trillion yuan in December 2025, with a financing growth rate of 8.3%, narrowing the gap with M2 growth by 0.7 percentage points from November [2][5] - Last week, 308 credit bonds were successfully issued, with 135 classified as local government financing bonds, accounting for 43.8% of the total [2][5] Policy and Market Developments - The People's Bank of China aims to accelerate the construction of a cross-border payment system for the yuan and implement strict regulatory measures for payment institutions [3][6] - The central government has allocated risk-sharing funds to support bond issuance for private enterprises and private equity investment institutions [3][6] - The Governor of the People's Bank of China announced plans to establish a risk-sharing tool for technology innovation and private enterprise bonds, along with providing re-lending support [3][6] - The Ministry of Finance will conduct market support operations for government bonds with maturities of 3 and 5 years starting January 20 [3][6] - Recent announcements from local government financing entities involve equity transfers, asset disposals, and changes in control [3][6] Information from Far East Credit - Far East Credit published a guide on the application of large language models in corporate credit evaluation [3][6] - Far East Credit's rating facilitated the successful issuance of the first medium-term note for Zhejiang Jiaxing Lake District Science and Technology Control Group in 2026 [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - Lanhua Ketech (600123.SH) is expected to report a net loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company ranging from 440 million to 550 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025 due to various adverse factors [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant net loss for 2025, estimated between 440 million and 550 million yuan [1] - The primary reason for the loss is the continuous decline in market prices for key products, including coal and chemical fertilizers, which has severely impacted the main business profits [1] Group 2: Operational Challenges - The company is undergoing capacity integration and upgrades in its coal chemical industry to promote energy conservation and environmental protection, leading to asset impairment provisions for some outdated facilities [1] - A significant decline in investment income is attributed to the suspension of operations at the company's equity investee, Yamei Danning Energy Company, which ceased operations in mid-May due to the expiration of its operating period [1]

Economic Overview - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined this week, ending a previous expansion trend, but remains close to the stable zone around 100, indicating a phase of consolidation after prior growth[1] - The consumption index fell into the contraction zone, reflecting a marginal cooling in post-holiday consumption, although the decline is limited and overall remains robust[1] - The investment index also decreased, with corporate investment entering a wait-and-see phase after prior expansion, maintaining a level around 100, indicating continued support for domestic demand[1] - The production index showed a slight recovery into the expansion zone, suggesting stabilization as industrial production activities return to normal post-holiday[1] Structural Insights - In 2025, China's GDP reached approximately 140.19 trillion RMB, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, demonstrating strong macroeconomic resilience amid complex external conditions[2] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw value-added growth of 9.2% and 9.4% respectively, significantly outpacing the overall manufacturing sector, indicating a shift towards new growth drivers[2] - There is a steady improvement in innovation capabilities and a structured push towards green transformation, with green electricity and green economy sectors thriving[2] - Business confidence is gradually improving, with enhanced operational expectations from enterprises and increased activity in service and new consumption sectors among residents[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently in a state of high activity with a strong upward trend, especially for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices. The market成交 remains high, and the upward momentum is expected to continue. However, there are also potential risks, such as a reversal in market liquidity, a burst of the US AI bubble, and lower - than - expected economic growth [20]. - In different commodity sectors: - Agricultural products: Overall, the supply and demand situation varies. For example, protein meal faces supply pressure, while sugar has supply - side issues both domestically and internationally. Oils and fats are in a state of wide - range oscillation [25][28][31]. - Metals: Precious metals like gold and silver are strongly influenced by geopolitical factors and are expected to maintain a strong upward trend. Base metals have different trends, such as copper being in a high - level consolidation phase, and iron ore having a weakening fundamental outlook [70][77][65]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. Other products like asphalt, fuel oil, and LPG also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [120][122][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The IC and IM indices are accelerating upwards. The market enthusiasm is high, and the upward trend is expected to continue. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are favored. Trading strategies include going long on IM and IC in the medium - to - long term, and using grid trading for IF and IH in the short term [18][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Economic data is mixed, and the central bank's attitude towards liquidity is positive. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions in TL and consider short - selling the basis of 30Y active bonds [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is increasing, and the overall market is declining. The US soybean market is under pressure due to a generally loose supply - demand situation, while the domestic market may have some support in the short - term but still faces long - term pressure [25][27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is falling, while the Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong. The international sugar market is affected by the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, while the domestic market is under supply pressure but has some support at low prices [28][30]. - **Oils and Fats**: The sector is expected to continue wide - range oscillations. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory of various oils is in different states. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and inventory [31][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The northern port spot price is rising, and the market is in a strong - side oscillation. The US corn market is affected by export sales and weather, while the domestic market has a stable spot price in the short - term but still faces pressure [35][37]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter pressure is improving, and the spot price is gradually rising. However, the overall supply pressure still exists, and the price is still under pressure [38][40]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the market is oscillating at the bottom. The import volume is decreasing, and the oil mill has a profit. The 05 contract is recommended to go long at low prices [41][43]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg price is rising. The supply is gradually reducing production, but the 03 contract may have limited upward space due to the weak demand after the Spring Festival [44][48]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the price is firm. The inventory is low, the cost of warehouse receipts is high, and the 5 - month contract price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [50][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sentiment is optimistic, and the cotton price is supported. The sales progress is fast, and the improvement in Sino - US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile factories' production capacity support the market. The short - term market is expected to oscillate within a range [56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The steel production and inventory are in a complex state, and the cost is supported. The market is expected to remain oscillating before the Spring Festival [59][60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are lackluster, and attention should be paid to capital disturbances. The supply of coking coal is not tight, and the downstream replenishment is not strong. The market is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices [61][64]. - **Iron Ore**: The terminal demand is at a low level, and the iron ore price is oscillating. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the high - valuation situation is expected to be difficult to sustain. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [65][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is low and there is a need for restoration, and the short - term market is oscillating strongly. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are improving marginally, and the cost is supported [67][69]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold has broken through the $5000 mark, and silver has entered the "three - digit" era. Geopolitical factors are the main drivers, and the prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term [70][73]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical events have led to a rift in trust between Europe and the United States, and the precious metals are strongly rising. Platinum has a stronger upward drive than palladium [74][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price is in a high - level consolidation phase. The increase in inventory and the uncertainty of tariffs have an impact on the short - term price, but the long - term supply shortage and strong financial attributes support the price [77][79]. - **Alumina**: The market is mainly oscillating at a low level. The supply has short - term maintenance and production reduction, and the fundamentals are still weak [80][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The aluminum price is oscillating and rebounding. The global shortage is more prominent overseas, and the downstream has replenishment sentiment, supporting the price [84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Driven by risk appetite, the alloy is oscillating and rebounding with the sector. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost supports the price [85][86]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the change in domestic social inventory. The supply of zinc concentrate is still in short supply, and the supply of refined zinc is increasing. The market is expected to oscillate and rebound [87][93]. - **Lead**: There may be support at the bottom. The supply of primary lead is stable, and the production of recycled lead may decline. The demand is weakening, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation [93][97]. - **Nickel**: The long - term expectation is leading the nickel price to rise. The short - term reality is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The price is expected to have upward space after high - level consolidation [98][101]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are tight, and the price is firm. The supply of raw materials is short, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to remain high [102]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The news of production reduction is fermenting, but the coking coal is dragging down the market. The short - term market is oscillating strongly. If the production reduction is implemented, the price may rise [104]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is declining, and the short - term futures are under pressure. The high inventory and weak demand may lead to a decline in the spot price, and the futures should be treated with a short - term bearish view [105][106]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and cautious operation is recommended. The supply may be affected by policies and maintenance, and the demand is supported by pre - holiday stocking. The price may continue to rise, but there are also regulatory risks [110][112]. - **Tin**: The tin price has increased in volume and broken through. The inventory is increasing, the production is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate widely at a high level [114][116]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is continuing to decline, and attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics. The freight rate is in the off - season decline process, and the impact of export tax rebates and geopolitical factors on the market needs to be observed [117][118]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Driven by risk appetite, geopolitical sentiment still exists. Geopolitical factors and cold snaps in Europe and the United States are boosting the price, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [120][121]. - **Asphalt**: Low inventory and low production support the spot price. The market is following the high - level oscillation of crude oil, and the demand is weakening as the Spring Festival approaches [122][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals remain weak, and geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The high - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are expected to be stable and weak in the first quarter, while the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing [127][128]. - **LPG**: International propane is in short supply, and chemical demand is declining. The international market is tight, the supply of domestic liquefied gas is increasing slightly, and the demand for downstream chemicals is decreasing [130]. - **Natural Gas**: It is expected that the upward space of LNG price is limited, and attention should be paid to the market risk of US HH near the delivery date. The short - term price is supported by cold weather, but the long - term demand growth is slow, and the price is expected to decline [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The capital attention is increasing, and the aromatics sector is in a strong atmosphere. The PX supply is at a high level, and the PTA is affected by cost and capital sentiment [136][138]. - **BZ & EB**: There are frequent unexpected device problems, and the export transactions are good. The supply of pure benzene is expected to tighten, and the supply of styrene is affected by device problems. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [140][142]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Saudi Arabia's maintenance is expected to reduce imports, and the Lianyungang device is switching production. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [143][145]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand is weakening. The load is expected to decrease, and the price is following the cost side [146][148]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The maintenance is accelerating in late January, and the price is following the cost side. The start - up rate is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [149]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market supply and demand are supported [150][152]. - **Plastics (L & PP)**: The operation of the rubber and plastics industry is continuously improving. The prices of L and PP are rising, and the industry's profitability is improving [153][154]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is weakening. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The price and the futures market are expected to be weak [155][158]. - **PVC**: The price continues to rise. The start - up rate is expected to decrease, the export is expected to be strong, and the price is expected to continue to be strong [159][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is oscillating and repairing. The supply is stable, the demand is good, and the price decline is expected to slow down [161][163]. - **Glass**: The futures price is oscillating. The market is affected by the real - estate situation, and the price is expected to decline with a narrowing range [164][166]. - **Methanol**: The market is running strongly. The international device start - up rate is declining, and the domestic supply is relatively loose. The market is supported by the overall strength of chemical products [166][168]. - **Urea**: The market is mainly oscillating. The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has an impact on sentiment, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate [169][171]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price is oscillating widely. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Chilean fire on the pulp supply. The supply is greater than the demand, and the price is expected to be bullish, but the impact of the fire needs to be observed [172][175]. - **Logs**: Due to natural disasters in New Zealand, the supply is tightening, and the spot price is slightly strong. The price is affected by supply and demand in different regions, and the long - position should be held [176][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the cultural paper spot price has weak rebound momentum. The supply is still sufficient, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [180][182]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The NR warehouse receipts are reducing inventory, and the tire inventory is increasing. The inventory of different types of rubber is in different states, and the short - position is recommended for RU and NR [183][186]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The warehouse receipts are increasing inventory, and the tire inventory is increasing. The inventory is increasing, and the market should be observed [186][189].

24 January 2026 | 12:02AM HKT Portfolio Strategy Research CHINA WEEKLY KICKSTART Markets edged down 1%; Q4 GDP in line with expectations amid mixed December activity data MXCN/CSI300 both edged down by 0.6% this week. Vice Premier He Lifeng delivered a keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan 20. MoF hosted a press conference on Jan 20 and reiterated its commitment to maintaining proactive fiscal policy in 2026. CSRC released Guidelines for performance benchmarks of mutual funds, effective ...