Production - In November, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.4%, indicating resilience in industrial operations[1] - The service production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] Investment - Fixed asset investment in November saw a month-on-month decline of 12.0%, with a cumulative growth rate dropping to -2.6%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Infrastructure investment showed a cumulative growth rate of 0.1% for broad infrastructure and -1.1% for narrow infrastructure, both continuing to decline[2] - Real estate investment fell by 15.9% cumulatively, with funding and sales also showing significant declines, indicating ongoing instability in housing prices[2] Consumption - Social retail sales grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to high base effects from last year[3] - Restaurant consumption showed relative resilience with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, while retail sales of goods increased by only 1.0%, reflecting a notable slowdown[3] Policy Outlook - The necessity for policy support has increased due to continued weak demand, with the December Central Economic Work Conference emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal measures and enhancing macroeconomic governance[5] - The policy toolbox remains ample, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply[5]

许多投资者希望借助黄金抵御经济波动，却常常将现货黄金与购买实物金饰混为一谈。现货黄金是一种国际金融衍生工具，通过杠杆机制支持全天候交易， 为投资者提供基于价格变动的灵活机会。 截至2025年12月18日，现货黄金价格在4330美元/盎司附近高位震荡，受美联储政策调整及全球避险情绪影响，年内涨幅显著。 现货黄金的基本概念 现货黄金的市场特点 现货黄金市场实现24小时不间断交易，从亚洲到欧洲再到美洲时区无缝衔接，确保投资者能及时应对国际事件。 现货黄金，通常称为伦敦金，是以美元计价的国际黄金交易品种。其起源可追溯到伦敦黄金市场，早期的标准化模式奠定了今日全球贵金属交易的基础。 与实物黄金不同，现货黄金无需实际持有或交割金条，而是通过价格差额结算。这使得交易更注重市场流动性和透明度，而非存储与物流问题。 金盛贵金属作为香港黄金交易所认可的电子交易商，提供相关现货黄金服务，帮助投资者参与这一全球性市场。业内人士指出，现货黄金常被视为反映宏观 经济和地缘因素的资产。 现货黄金的核心交易规则 现货黄金采用T+0模式，意味着投资者可在同一日内多次进出仓位，操作更为灵活。 它还允许双向操作：价格上涨时可做多，下跌时可做空，从 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 政府性基金支出大幅回暖 宏观研究团队 观 研 究 宏 观 经 济 点 评 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 相关研究报告 《美联储继续降息紧迫性并不高—美 国 11 月非农就业数据点评》 -2025.12.17 《黄金价格再度逼近历史最高点—宏 观经济专题》-2025.12.16 《需求仍偏弱，制造业和基建低位企 稳—兼评 11 月经济数据》-2025.12.16 ——宏观经济点评 何宁（分析师） 沈美辰（分析师） shenmeichen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524110002 事件：11 月，全国一般公共预算收入 14026 亿元，全国一般公共预算支出 22713 亿元。政府性基金预算收入 5801 亿元，政府性基金预算支出 11232 亿元。 税收增长边际放缓；财政支出力度回升，民生类支出有待加码 1、财政收入边际降速，税收乏力、非税收入小幅回升。11 月狭义财政收入 14026 亿元，同比下降 0.02%，增速边际放缓。1-11 月公共财政收入累计增速持平 0.8%。 税收收入增速边际走弱，11 月税收收入录得 11450 亿元，同比增长 2.8%（前值 ...

德勤中国华南区主管合伙人欧振兴表示，香港新股市场的前景仍将在一定程度上受到宏观经济及地缘政 治因素影响，包括美国货币政策走向、全球资金配置动向，以及中国企业出海与扩大内需的政策取向。 与此同时，资本市场的持续改革与制度优化，将在提升香港市场整体竞争力、流动性及估值水平方面发 挥关键作用，并逐步改善新股市场的生态与表现。 他续指，市场近日就修订同股不同权公司上市要求、调整新股买卖单位等改革展开讨论，亦期望监管机 构能进一步检视双重主要上市及第二上市制度，深化港交所与东南亚证券交易所的合作，并建立更具针 对性的机制，便利海外企业来港上市。 智通财经APP获悉，12月18日，德勤中国资本市场服务部发布《中国内地及香港IPO市场 2025年回顾与 2026年前景展望》。资本市场服务部预测，在目前超过300宗上市申请个案的名单支持下，2026年全 年，香港新股市场将有约160只新股，融资不少于3000亿港元。预计其中将有7只新股，每只最少融资 100亿港元，其中包括内地龙头企业。除了有大量A+H股上市申请人外，科技、传媒及电讯、医疗、消 费、国际公司以及在美上市的中概股的上市项目也将成为市场关注的焦点。 德勤提及，美国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the global macro - economy is expected to maintain resilience, supporting risk sentiment. The macro - economic mainline will shift from trade policies and geopolitical relations to economic fundamentals, and major economies will be in a period of relatively abundant macro - liquidity mainly driven by fiscal expansion [2][49]. - The global economy, led by the US, will maintain resilience in 2026, continuing to support the performance of risk assets. The structure may be more balanced than in 2025, with the technology sector, industry prosperity logic, and macro - cycle opportunities intertwined [3][50]. - The long - term US Treasury bond yield has limited trends in 2026, with an upward - risk bias. The US dollar index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation throughout the year, with an upward - risk bias [3][163][172]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Overseas Macroeconomic Mainline Logic and Performance Review of Major Asset Classes - **Economic fundamentals**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a relatively high growth rate, but the actual GDP growth rate declined marginally compared to 2024. Non - US economies were stronger in the first half of the year, and the US economy was stronger in the second half. The inventory and net exports of the US GDP fluctuated greatly in the first half due to trade policies, and personal consumption and private fixed investment showed certain resilience. The US industrial output increased, and there were signs of an early - cycle expansion. Monetary policy continued to cut interest rates, and the yield of US Treasury bonds declined, but the stock - market valuation remained basically unchanged. The fiscal deficit ratio decreased [7][8][16][17][26]. - **Adapting to the new reality of the tariff era**: In 2025, tariff policies were the most important macro - risks. The overall US tariff rate remained high, and the "severe decoupling" between China and the US turned into "slow decoupling." The "tariff - inflation" transmission was relatively mild, and the US inflation expectation became stable and desensitized to tariff uncertainties [30][37][39]. - **Performance review of major asset classes**: In 2025, the global market had a good year. Global equity markets rose significantly, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the STAR 50 Index leading the way. The bond market also had positive returns, and the commodity market was highly differentiated [47][48]. 3.2 2026 Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook 3.2.1 "From Politics to Economy", "From International to Domestic" - The mainline of the global macro - economy will shift from trade policies and geopolitical relations to economic fundamentals, and the focus of geopolitics will shift from international to domestic. The US mid - term elections, China's 14th Five - Year Plan, the eurozone's fiscal expansion, and Japan's new policies will all focus on domestic economic and political issues [55]. - **Tariff policy changes**: The "general tariff" under the IEEPA framework is facing challenges. If the government loses the lawsuit, the IEEPA tariff will be revoked. Relevant industry tariffs may become an important legal tool for rebuilding the high - tariff system, and attention should be paid to changes in key industries and commodity trade flows [56][58]. - **US National Security Strategy**: The US National Security Strategy focuses on economic and financial security, including trade balance, ensuring key supply chains, re - industrialization, energy dominance, revitalizing the US dollar, and tax cuts and deregulation. It shows a shift from maintaining global leadership to focusing on national interests [61]. 3.2.2 Macro - liquidity - **Monetary policy**: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates to 3.25% in 2026, with two 50bp cuts in total. There is a risk that the final interest - rate cut space is less than expected, and there is a probability of an early end to the interest - rate cut cycle or a start of an interest - rate hike cycle. The Fed is expected to restart balance - sheet expansion in the second half of 2026 [65][67][68]. - **Fiscal policy**: The US fiscal policy will expand marginally in 2026. The "Great Beauty Act" will have a positive impact on the economy, and the fiscal deficit ratio is expected to expand moderately. The risk of concerns about the sustainability of US Treasury bonds is relatively controllable [78][79][80]. - **Macro - liquidity**: The US financial conditions index is expected to continue to expand in 2026, mainly driven by factors such as the decline in the benchmark interest rate, credit expansion, and the resilience of the equity market. The expansion of the financial conditions index is expected to have a more significant impact on the real economy [86][94][96]. 3.2.3 Economic Structure - **Forward - looking and backward - looking indicators**: The US economy is currently in a situation where forward - looking indicators are improving while backward - looking indicators are still weak. It is expected that the backward - looking indicators will improve in 2026 [101]. - **Inflation**: Inflation is expected to remain above the Fed's target in 2026, with a CPI growth rate of 2.8%. The "pro - cyclical inflation" will have a relatively limited impact on macro - assets [103][104]. - **Employment**: The employment market is trending downward, supporting the Fed's interest - rate cut tendency. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in the first half of 2026 and then fall to 4.4% in the second half [114]. - **Consumption**: Personal consumption is expected to remain stable in 2026, showing a K - shaped differentiation. Consumption may be weak in the first half due to income factors and will be boosted by the employment market and fiscal policies in the second half [121][122]. - **Private fixed investment**: Private fixed investment is expected to be a highlight in 2026, with a significant improvement in the quarter - on - quarter growth rate. However, the structure is differentiated, and it is necessary to follow industry Alpha [128][129]. 3.2.4 Debate on the "AI Bubble" - The "AI bubble" reflects concerns about the sustainability of AI investment, debt, and return on investment. At the index level, there is no systematic risk for now, but the risk is concentrated in leading technology companies. It is recommended to track risks through indicators such as ROIC - WACC, credit market risk exposure, and the profit erosion of depreciation and amortization [135][137][147]. 3.3 US Treasury Bond Market - In 2026, the long - term US Treasury bond yield has limited trends, with an upward - risk bias. The 10 - year US Treasury bond interest - rate center may be around 4.20%, with support at 3.95 - 4.00 and the first target at 4.35% and the second target at 4.65%. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield has support at around 3.20% and a target of 3.68%. The yield curve may show a "bull steepening" in the first half and a "bear steepening" in the second half [163][164]. 3.4 US Dollar Index - The US dollar index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in 2026, with an annual oscillation range of 96 - 108 and an upward - risk bias. The oscillation range in the first quarter of 2026 is 97.7 - 102. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of economic relative strength, the marginal change of interest - rate differentials, and carry - trade themes [172][180].

Core Viewpoint - China's macroeconomic operation continues to show overall stability and progress, with a projected growth rate of around 5% for the year, laying a solid foundation for the 14th Five-Year Plan and 2026 [2][17]. Economic Performance - The industrial added value maintained a stable and relatively fast growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in November and 6.0% from January to November [4]. - Fixed asset investment is on a downward trend, with a total of 444,035 billion yuan from January to November, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. Excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 0.8% [4][6]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 15.9% year-on-year from January to November, with the decline expanding compared to the previous month [12]. Consumption Trends - Social retail sales totaled 43,898 billion yuan in November, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3% and a cumulative growth of 4.0% from January to November [7]. - Consumption patterns show steady growth in basic and some upgraded goods, with significant increases in food, communication equipment, and cultural office supplies [7]. Export Resilience - Exports showed strong resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in November, reaching a record high of 330.35 billion USD for the year [9]. - Exports to the US stabilized, while growth rates for exports to ASEAN and the EU remained robust, compensating for the decline in exports to the US [9]. Financial Indicators - Social financing maintained good growth, with a total of 2.49 trillion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 1,597 billion yuan [14]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.7% year-on-year in November, indicating a steady upward trend in prices [14]. Future Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference indicated that achieving the 5% growth target for 2025 is highly likely, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations for 2026 [17][18]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain an expansionary stance, with a projected deficit rate of 4%-4.2% and an increase in special government bond issuance to support key areas [21]. - Monetary policy will remain flexible, with potential small-scale adjustments to interest rates and reserve requirements to ensure liquidity and support economic growth [22].

币界网12月17日讯，美劳工部发布数据显示，11月份非农就业人口增加64,000人，远低于市场预期的20 万人。这一爆冷结果瞬间搅动全球市场，全球资产集体进入刹车模式。美股三大指数小幅收跌，纳指和 科技股回调为主旋律，AI概念股延续抛售；美债波动率降至去年5月以来低点，十年期美债收益率仅小 幅下行0.5个基点，美元指数则录得四连跌，离岸人民币一度升破7.04关口。 一旦市场认为新任主席更像总统的延伸，而非相对独立的央行掌门，在未来通胀回升时可能缺乏足够决 心去加码紧缩，那么美债的长期收益率很可能提前用抬头反抗的方式表达不信任，最终让政府融资成本 高企，这与白宫希望维持低利率、稳增长的诉求，恰好形成反差。无论最后落槌的是哈塞特，还是沃 什，新一届美联储都将运行在更强的聚光灯之下，市场会用长端利率、通胀预期乃至美元走势，为这种 货币关系的新平衡开出价格。 对于比特币这种高度敏感的宏观资产而言，谁来担任下一任美联储主席，将影响市场对未来真实利率区 间、货币宽松边界以及美元周期的判断，而这些，最终都会在比特币的波动幅度和中长期趋势上，留下 清晰的回声。此时，XBIT Wallet比特币钱包深度集成宏观经济数据看板与政 ...

Market Overview - On December 17, the A-share market opened lower but experienced a slight upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3834 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3870.28 points, up 1.19%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.40% to 13224.51 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 18,345 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Key sectors showing strong performance included communication equipment, electronic components, energy metals, and finance, while sectors like decoration, aerospace, and brewing lagged behind[3] - Over 70% of stocks in the two markets rose, with energy metals and precious metals leading the gains[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.72 times and 47.69 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3] - The market is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point mark, with cyclical and technology sectors likely to alternate in performance[3] Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference set a tone of "more proactive" economic policies for the coming year, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have led to fluctuating expectations regarding future easing measures[3] - The domestic economy is in a state of moderate recovery, but the foundation still needs strengthening[3] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments[3] - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in communication equipment, electronic components, energy metals, and finance sectors[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy and economic recovery delays, and international relations changes affecting the economic environment[4]

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 11 月非农数据新增就业超预期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-17 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 哈塞特：特朗普反对美联储主席不能是密友的说法 美国 11 月非农数据新增就业超预期，但是失业率上升，薪资增 速不及预期，美元指数走弱。 宏观策略（股指期货） A 股港股遭遇单边调整 综 A 股港股市场同步下跌，且跌幅较大。市场传言繁多，或因高科 技企业税收认定趋严有关。我们认为高估值的股市本身面临压 力，回调是降压手段之一，后续国家队仍会呵护市场。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 黑色金属（动力煤） 12 月 16 日印尼低卡动力煤报价偏弱运行 港口煤价跌破 750，预计仍将继续下行。考虑季节性压力，预计 整体煤价将一直跌势 1 月中旬，对应港口 5500 或进一步测试 700 元附近关键点位。 有色金属（铜） 英美资源与泰克资源合并案获加拿大批准 美国 11 月非农数据超预期转弱，美元阶段转弱支撑铜价，但市 场对短期基本面仍存在担忧，预计铜价继续高位震荡可能性更 大。 能源化工（原油） 美国 API 原油库存大幅下降 油价延续跌势，过剩担忧打压油价。 晨 央行开展 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Insights - The focus is on the asset allocation challenges in a low interest rate environment in 2026, with a deep dive into the framework of major asset allocation and the steady approach of "fixed income +" strategies [2] - The strategic value of bond ETFs and structural opportunities in credit bonds and convertible bonds will be analyzed to provide practical guidance for diversified allocation [2] Group 2: Macroeconomic Stability - The forum will explore how China's macro economy can achieve "steady progress" in 2025, addressing whether the current economy is "steady with progress" or "progress with concerns" [5] - Key issues such as low CPI operation and the stabilization of the real estate market will be discussed, along with the balance between "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks" [5] Group 3: Technology Sector Strategy - The outlook for 2026 highlights the advancement of AI, focusing on three main areas: the large-scale implementation of domestic computing power, breakthroughs in multimodal capabilities of large models, and the scaling of enterprise-level AI applications [7] - The discussion will center on the industrial transition from "+AI" to "AI+" and the investment opportunities that arise from this shift [7] Group 4: Real Estate Market Analysis - The analysis indicates that stable policy expectations, a low interest rate environment, and improved supply-demand structures are key forces supporting the stabilization of the real estate market [10]