Economic Growth Trends - In November, industrial value added grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 4.9% in October[1] - The service production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year in November, a decrease from 4.6% in October[1] - Overall economic growth momentum has weakened, with both industrial and service sectors falling below 5% growth since Q4[1] Consumer Spending and Retail Performance - Social retail sales grew by only 1.3% year-on-year in November, down from 2.9% in October[1] - Online retail sales increased by 1.5% year-on-year in November, significantly lower than the 4.9% growth in October[1] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival saw reduced consumer engagement, impacting retail performance[1] Investment and Real Estate Market - Fixed asset investment fell by 2.6% cumulatively from January to November, with a 12% decline in November alone[2] - Real estate development investment dropped by 30.3% year-on-year in November, indicating a worsening trend[2] - The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 17.3% year-on-year in November, with sales revenue down by 25.1%[2] Policy Recommendations - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for stronger domestic demand to address the supply-demand imbalance[3] - Plans for 2026 include more proactive fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate consumption and stabilize investment[3] - Risks include potential trade frictions and continued declines in the real estate market, which may affect policy effectiveness[3]

简评：11月份国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳中有进发展态势。但外部不稳定不确定因素较多，国内有 效需求不足，经济运行面临不少挑战。下阶段，更加积极有为的宏观政策有望得以实施，从而持续扩大 内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有 效提升和量的合理增长。 12月15日，国家统计局数据显示，2025年11月份，70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体下降、同比 降幅扩大。一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，同比下降 1.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点；二手住宅销售价格环比下降1.1%，降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点， 同比下降5.8%，降幅比上月扩大1.4个百分点。 简评：11月70城房价数据呈现"环比总体下降、同比降幅扩大"的特征，其中一线城市11月房价表现不 佳，无论是新房还是二手房，同环比跌幅均有所扩大。投资与销售的双降或显示行业仍处于深度调整 期，基本面尚未扭转。往后看，在中央"着力稳定房地产市场"的定调及各地"因城施策"下，房地产市场 有望在结构分化中逐步寻底。 央行12月12日发布2025年11月金融统计数据报告显 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --沪铜周报 研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2025年12月15日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 行情分析 2 ➢ 宏观方面：上周美联储如期降息25个bp，虽然目前26年降息预期尚不明朗，但美元指数依旧如期下挫，支撑金属市场。而国内宏观重大会议 同样释放了宽松货币政策的积极信号，整体周内宏观市场均提振铜价格。2025年11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，核心CPI同比上涨1.2%；PPI同比下 降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%。 ➢ 供给方面：上周随着沪铜价格大范围拉涨，而废铜企业呈现谨慎态度，精费价差走扩。后续770号文明确后，相关地区安徽江西等生产积极性 应有转变，或将增加废铜供给。11月SMM中国电解铜产量110.31万吨，环比增加1.15万吨，环比增幅1.05%，同比增幅9.75%。1-11月累计产量 同比增加128.94万吨，增幅为11.76%。SMM预计12月电解铜产量环比增加6.57万吨，增幅5.96%，同比增幅6.69%。 ➢ 需求方面：本周铜价上涨，铜材利润受挤压，铜板带生产积极性弱 ...

Group 1 - China's strong export performance provides greater space for policy operations, with fiscal efforts expected to play a key role in addressing global economic uncertainties [1][6] - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the need for a strong domestic market, innovation-driven growth, and coordinated development [3][4] - The focus on domestic demand indicates a potential reduction in external contributions to economic growth, necessitating macro policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [4] Group 2 - The monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, with the central bank likely to implement gradual interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [5] - Structural monetary policies will be optimized to support key sectors such as technology innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and green development [5] - The fiscal policy will remain proactive, with an emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing expenditure structures to address local fiscal challenges [5] Group 3 - Global monetary policy paths are diverging, with the U.S. Federal Reserve recently lowering interest rates while other major economies like the Eurozone and the UK are expected to maintain or even increase rates [7][11][12] - Emerging markets may benefit from a weaker dollar and potential further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, creating more room for local central banks to implement supportive monetary policies [14] - The economic outlook for emerging markets varies, with some countries like Brazil and India expected to maintain robust growth due to strong domestic demand [14]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货国债年报 短端宽松托底 长端博弈政策预期 从业资格号：F03117664 交易咨询号：Z0022772 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 20251215 作者：石舒宇 0769-22116880 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 • 2025年货币政策基调延续"适度宽松" ，但更强调精准施策与预期管理，货币政策从总量刺激转向结构性支持与存量效能 释放，重点支持科技创新、普惠小微与消费领域，同时重申防范资金空转与汇率超调 ...

【导读】 日本银行（央行）12月18~19日将召开金融政策决定会议，上调目前为0.5％的政策利率，现 已进入最终协调阶段。最可能的方案是加息0.25％至0.75％，达到1995年以后即30年来的最高利率水平 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，简单关注一下这周日本央行准备加息的消息。 12月15日，日元跑赢所有G10货币，原因是投资者加大了对日本央行将在本周晚些时候加息 的 押注 。 截至发稿，美元兑日元下跌0.48%，报155.05。 | 美元兑日元 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 汇 USDJPY | | | | | | | | 155.0500 -0.7600 -0.4878% | | | | | | | | 12-15 17:06:33 | | | | | | | | 今开 | 155.7300 | 最高 | 155.9800 | 振幅 | | 0.6803% | | 昨日 | 155.8100 | 最低 | 154.9200 | 波幅 | | 1.0600 | | 分时 五日 | | 日K | 園K | 月K | 更多 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On December 15, 2025, the Treasury bond spot yields on the ultra - long end weakened significantly, with the 2 - 7Y maturity yields rising about 0.5 - 1.5bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields rising about 1.55bp and 3.05bp to 1.86% and 2.28% respectively. Treasury bond futures weakened collectively, with the TS, T, TF, and TL main contracts falling 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.12%, and 0.99% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 oscillated around 1.44%. [4] - Domestically, in November, industrial added - value increased year - on - year, social retail sales slowed marginally, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate remained stable. November's financial data showed structural differentiation. With the boost of direct financing, the increase in aggregate social financing exceeded expectations; credit continued to weaken, with household loans being the main drag, and the medium - and long - term investment demand of enterprises remained weak. Affected by the base effect, the growth rates of M1 and M2 declined, and the M1 - M2 gap widened again. In November, CPI continued to improve, rising 0.7% year - on - year; the marginal slowdown of the anti - involution effect led to a slight expansion of the year - on - year decline in PPI. [4] - In terms of news, the December Politburo meeting pointed out that next year's economic work should continue to implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, give play to the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies, and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in December, the third rate cut this year. The Fed said that the current unemployment rate has risen slightly, but inflation remains high, and the future interest - rate path will be decided based on economic data. [4] - Overall, the December Central Economic Work Conference and Politburo meeting set a positive tone. Next year's fiscal and monetary policies will continue the loose tone, and the expectation of loose money has increased. However, the uncertainty of the market about the implementation rhythm of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts has increased. In the short term, there is a lack of new information guidance, and the sentiment in the bond market remains weak, and it may continue the adjustment trend in the short term. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 107.870 (-0.12%), 105.785 (-0.03%), 102.454 (-0.01%), and 111.530 (-0.99%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 101,896 (up 4,380), 78,602 (up 3,843), 36,811 (up 3,534), and 160,418 (down 8,058) respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Multiple futures spreads changed, such as the TL2603 - 2606 spread decreased by 0.03 to -0.22, and the T03 - TL03 spread increased by 0.83 to -3.66. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all increased, with changes of 851, 2,976, 2,279, and 3,039 respectively. The net short positions of T and TL decreased by 2,271 and 704 respectively, while those of TF and TS increased by 235 and 503 respectively. [2] 2. CTD Bonds - The net prices of several CTD bonds changed, with most showing a downward trend, such as 250018.IB (6y) decreasing by 0.0792 to 100.2498, except for 230002.IB (2y) which increased by 0.0104 to 102.6436. [2] 3. Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active Treasury bonds with different maturities increased, with 1y remaining unchanged at 1.3875%, 3y increasing by 0.50bp to 1.4150%, 5y increasing by 2.00bp to 1.6150%, 7y increasing by 2.75bp to 1.7275%, and 10y increasing by 2.75bp to 1.8425%. [2] 4. Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 1.44bp to 1.2856%, the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 0.50bp to 1.2740%, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 5.00bp to 1.5100%, the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 1.90bp to 1.4320%, the silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreased by 3.00bp to 1.4900%, and the Shibor 14 - day rate increased by 0.20bp to 1.5110%. [2] 5. LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively. [2] 6. Open - market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 130.9 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 122.3 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days. Additionally, on December 15, the central bank carried out a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse - repurchase operation. [2][3] 7. Macroeconomic Data - In November, China's social消费品 retail总额 was 438.98 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. From January to November, it was 4,560.67 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase. Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to November decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. The added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size in November increased by 4.8% year - on - year. The national urban survey unemployment rate in November was 5.1%, unchanged from the previous month. [2] - In November, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month overall, and the year - on - year decline widened. [3]

人民银行15日开展1309亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平；鉴于当日有1223亿元7 天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放86亿元。 上周（12月8日-12日）央行公开市场操作影响有限，全周7天逆回购仅净投放47亿元，月初资金需求不 高，叠加政府债缴款压力减弱，资金面总体维持宽松。隔夜利率缓步下行，R001由周初的1.37%连续下 行至周五的1.35%，DR001也再度下破1.3%，迎来新低，收于1.27%水平，打破了今年以来隔夜利率的 下限，即DR001始终在1.30%以上徘徊，宽松状态下也多位于1.31%附近。7天利率方面，随着税期（15- 17日）扰动渐近，7天资金价格的波动加大。周初R007同步下行，于周三触及1.49%的周内低点，自11 日起，拆借7天资金可完整跨税期，R007转为上行，于周五收至1.51%。 本周（12月15日-19日）7天逆回购到期规模小幅升至6685亿元；政府债净缴款规模将下降至-39亿元， 整体规模相对有限。12月15日为12月缴税截止日，同时也是中旬缴准日，当日央行将开展6M买断式回 购6000亿元，净投放2000亿元。尽管此前DR001中枢处于政策利率 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 15 日 ——利率周报（2025.12.08-2025.12.14） 投资要点： 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 中央经济工作会议定调 26 年经济工作 报告核心观点：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。宏观政策新增 "增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性"的实施路径，新增"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 度"表述，删除 2024 年的"稳住楼市股市"表述。财政政策方面，2025 年要继续 "实施更加积极的财政政策"、"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"。 货币政策上，2025 年要继续"实施适度宽松的货币政策"，降准降息方面表述从 2024 的"适时降准降息"变成"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，同时强调"把 促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"。2025 年中央经济工 作会议重点任务表述在多个领域有明显变化：内需领域升级为"内需主导，建设强 大国内市场"；科技创新新增教育科技人才一体化方案和服务业扩能提质行动，强 化人工智能发展与企业创新主体地位；改革新增"反内卷"竞争 ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%[9] - There is increasing internal disagreement within the Fed regarding inflation and employment risks, with 3 out of 12 officials voting against the rate cut[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January 2026 is 24.4% according to CME FedWatch[11] Economic Data - The U.S. JOLTS job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, the highest in five months, while initial jobless claims increased by 44,000, marking the largest rise since 2020[17] - The U.S. fiscal deficit decreased, with November fiscal revenue up 23.75% year-on-year, while spending decreased by 23.82%[17] - Japan's Q3 GDP was revised down from -1.8% to -2.3%, indicating a more significant economic contraction than previously expected[25] Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5 basis points to 4.19%[27] - European bond markets saw overall declines, with the 10-year UK bond yield increasing by 3.9 basis points to 4.52% and the German yield rising by 7 basis points to 2.85%[27] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 0.68% year-to-date, reflecting a 27.43% annual growth[6]