Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report The global risk appetite has cooled due to hawkish signals from Fed officials and a slowdown in China's economic growth. The short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and various asset classes are expected to show short - term oscillations. The market is focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and changes in Fed monetary policy expectations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Fed officials oppose a December rate cut, reducing the market's December rate - cut expectation probability to 40%, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in October was weaker than in September, and the central bank's liquidity - releasing measures were countered by the Fed's hawkish signals. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, with stock indices and government bonds expected to oscillate in the short term, and a cautious approach is recommended for both [2]. Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, consumer electronics, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market fell. With weaker economic data and Fed hawkish signals, the short - term upward macro - drive has weakened. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term cautious long - positions are advised [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Friday night. Affected by Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the short - term trend is oscillatory, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term cautious observation is recommended, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is advisable [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market declined slightly on Friday, with the futures price oscillating at the bottom. Weak economic data and reduced demand have led to a short - term oscillation in the steel market, but the downside below 3000 points for rebar is limited [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot price was flat on Friday, with the futures price oscillating. Although iron - water production has slightly increased, the profitability of steel mills is decreasing, and the supply is still in surplus. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, with the silicon - iron futures price rebounding slightly and the silicon - manganese futures price weakening. With a slight decline in steel production, the demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The futures prices of both are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash futures contract oscillated last week. Supply decreased marginally due to plant maintenance but remained ample, while demand improved slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the medium to long term [8]. - **Glass**: The glass futures contract oscillated weakly last week. Supply remained stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was high. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US government's potential end of the shutdown, Fed officials' caution on rate cuts, and poor economic data have created a complex macro - environment. High copper inventories in the US and China are constraining prices, while a mine shutdown in Indonesia supports prices. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the decline in Fed rate - cut expectations and poor domestic economic data, the price of Shanghai aluminum fell on Friday. There may be further downside in the short term, and if expectations are not met later, the price may experience a significant correction [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, but demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short to medium term [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, and the price of lithium concentrate has risen. The supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure should be watched [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate, with attention on cost support [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, but there is policy support. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but Fed hawkishness has led to a decline. The short - term spot market is weak, and the long - term outlook is bearish [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt remains low, with inventory gradually decreasing. The supply is still excessive, and attention should be paid to oil - price fluctuations [15]. - **PX**: The PX market is tight, with the PXN spread rising slightly. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: The upward momentum of PTA has faded, and the downstream demand is weakening seasonally. The supply is high, and the medium - to - long - term pressure is bearish [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased, and the downstream demand is decreasing. The price is expected to stop falling and oscillate [16][17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has declined slightly, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The medium - term trend is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable [17]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, waiting for positive factors [17]. - **PP**: The demand for polypropylene has improved slightly, but the supply growth is too fast, and the price is expected to continue to decline [17]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain under pressure [18]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea is high, and the demand is divided. The price is under downward pressure in the short term and may stabilize in the medium to long term [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November USDA report was slightly bullish, but there is a risk of the bullish factors being exhausted. The price center may be higher than before [19]. - **Domestic Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of domestic bean meal is loose, and it may weaken in the short term following the potential decline of US soybeans. Rapeseed meal may also enter a weak - oscillation phase [20][21]. - **Edible Oils**: The supply - demand situation of soybean oil is weak, but the price is stable. Rapeseed oil is expected to be strong due to inventory reduction and policy support. Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - **Corn**: The inventory of corn is low, and the market has a bullish sentiment. The futures price may repair the basis and rise steadily [22]. - **Hogs**: The current pig price is weak, and the supply is still excessive. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, but there is some support from farmers' reluctance to sell [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various asset classes including stocks, bonds, commodities, and agricultural products. It points out that the short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market is mainly focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and economic growth. Different asset classes are expected to have different trends, with most showing short - term oscillations and some having long - term trends influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and policy factors [2][3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - The US labor market is weak, with the number of Challenger job cuts in October reaching a 20 - year high. The global risk appetite has significantly cooled. In China, the manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and economic growth slowed down, but policy stimulus expectations have increased after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market should focus on domestic economic growth and policy implementation. For assets, stocks are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; bonds are expected to oscillate and rebound, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; most commodity sectors are expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to be cautiously watchful [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as phosphoric chemical, aluminum, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rose significantly. Fundamentally, China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and economic growth slowed down, but policy stimulus expectations increased. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Thursday night. The main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver increased. It was boosted by the weakening US dollar and rising safe - haven demand. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to watch in the short term and buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of domestic steel rebounded slightly on Thursday. The market's macro sentiment was repaired, but the fundamentals were still weak. The demand for steel has basically peaked this week, and the inventory decline has slowed down significantly. The supply contraction may further intensify. The short - term steel market is expected to be oscillatory and weak [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore strengthened slightly on Thursday. Although steel mills are still expected to cut production, the molten iron output increased slightly this week. The supply pressure is still large, and the short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Thursday, and the futures prices continued to rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys decreased as the output of five major steel products declined. The supply of silicon manganese was relatively stable, and the supply of silicon iron was also in a certain state. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate within a range [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash oscillated within a range on Thursday. The supply increased this week, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the pressure remains. It is advisable to take a bearish view in the medium - to - long - term [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass oscillated on Thursday. Affected by news from Shahe, the price was supported. The supply was stable, the demand was weak year - on - year, and the inventory was relatively high. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to previous large declines and the impact of Shahe, and attention should be paid to the demand during the year - end completion peak [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The number of Challenger job cuts in the US in October increased significantly. The US copper inventory continued to rise, and the domestic refined copper de - stocking was less than expected. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has intensified the global copper shortage, and the short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillatory [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose significantly on Thursday. The European aluminum premium rebounded. The domestic de - stocking was not smooth, and the supply and imports were at a high level, while the demand was weakening marginally. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to try shorting if the price rises above 21,800 [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase, and the demand is still weak. The tin price is at a historical high, and the high price has begun to suppress physical demand. The short - to - medium - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Thursday. The Jiangxi Natural Resources Department released a mining right transfer income assessment report, which may promote the resumption of production at Jiaxiaowo. It is advisable to hold a light position and wait for the "emotional bottom" [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Thursday. The demand was relatively stable, and the social inventory increased slightly at a high level. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon declined slightly on Thursday. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. The spot price is supported by policy expectations, but the terminal demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a high - level range, and range - bound operations are advisable [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Fed's hawkish stance and employment data have increased the uncertainty of a December interest rate cut. The government shutdown will continue, and the oil price is under medium - to - long - term pressure [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt continued to break through the previous low and has not bottomed out yet. The basis is low, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply pressure is increasing, and attention should be paid to the cost fluctuations of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The price of PX fluctuated due to news of polyester production cuts. The demand is supported by high PTA开工, and the supply is tight. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude oil cost fluctuations [16]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rose due to production cut news but fell back at night. The market doubts the authenticity of the news. The downstream开工 has declined, and the supply is high. The price is under pressure in the short term [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose with the polyester market but is still under pressure. The port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to be cautious before the price reaches a new low [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber rose slightly with the polyester sector but is under pressure later. The terminal orders are declining seasonally, and the inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium - term [17]. - **Methanol**: The port spot price of methanol rebounded, and the basis strengthened slightly. The port inventory is at a high level but is showing a slight de - stocking trend. The inland inventory is accumulating, and the price is weakening. The short - term price may decline, but the downward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate later [18]. - **PP**: The market price of PP moved slightly downward. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand recovery rate, but the demand has shown marginal improvement. The crude oil price rebound supports the cost. The price is expected to decline inertia in the short term [19]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE declined. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening after the peak season. The crude oil price provides limited support. The price is expected to continue to decline [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is stable, with individual enterprises raising prices slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is mixed. The export price is expected to oscillate at a low level [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price fell overnight. The market is optimistic about the repair of Sino - US soybean trade relations. The USDA will release a report on November 15. If the yield per unit is further lowered, the cost - repair logic of US soybeans will be enhanced [21]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals in China is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is sufficient. With the repair of Sino - US agricultural trade relations, the soybean meal inventory may increase, which will limit the upside potential [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Malaysian palm oil fell. The over - expected production increase since October has put pressure on the price. India's palm oil imports decreased in October, and the production in Malaysia continued to increase in November [22]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The price of soybean oil adjusted weakly. The supply - demand situation is still unfavorable, but it is relatively resistant to decline. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the basis is strong due to trade concerns [23]. - **Corn**: The price of corn in the northern port has limited upward momentum, and the supply - demand situation in North China is balanced. The supply exceeds demand, but the low downstream inventory and strong wheat price provide some support [23]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price has been falling since November. The supply pressure remains, and the price is unlikely to rebound significantly before the winter solstice pickling peak in December [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as the Fed's attitude, domestic PMI data, and policy expectations. Different asset classes show different trends, with short - term volatility and varying degrees of risk and opportunity [2][3] - For commodities, different sectors like black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, which are influenced by both macro and micro factors [4][8][12][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, the dollar index is strengthening due to Powell's hawkish attitude, and global risk appetite is cooling. Domestically, the October PMI is 49.0%, down 0.8% from last month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Policy stimulus expectations are increasing. Index futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and government bonds may rebound slightly. For commodities, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors may fluctuate, while precious metals may correct at high levels [2] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as insurance, semiconductors, and small metals, the domestic stock market continued to decline. The weakening PMI data dampened market sentiment, but policy stimulus expectations may boost risk appetite. Short - term caution and wait - and - see are recommended [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Friday night. The Fed's hawkish attitude and strong dollar index led to an overall shock adjustment of spot gold. In the short term, precious metals may fluctuate, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term wait - and - see and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are advised [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot market was flat last Friday, and the futures price declined slightly. Real demand is improving marginally, and speculative demand has also increased. However, steel mill profits are being compressed, and environmental restrictions may reduce supply. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price fell slightly last Friday, while the futures price strengthened. Macro expectations and reduced arrivals led to a recent rebound. But steel mill profits are low, and iron ore supply pressure is large. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price was flat last Friday, and the futures price declined slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is acceptable. The supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the price of silicon iron raw materials was stable. The futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [6] - **Soda Ash**: The futures contract fluctuated last week. Supply is increasing, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. Demand is stable. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing the price, and a bearish view is recommended [7] - **Glass**: The futures contract fluctuated last week. Supply was stable, demand was weak, and inventory was high. Supported by policies, it may be slightly stronger in the short term, and the demand during the year - end completion peak needs attention [7] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The macro - environment has weakened. The Fed's attitude and China's PMI data are not optimistic. US copper inventories are high, and domestic de - stocking is not as expected. However, the suspension of an Indonesian copper mine may support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8] - **Aluminum**: The price reached a one - year high last Friday and then declined. The Fed's attitude and market sentiment affected the price. The fundamentals changed little, and overseas and domestic de - stocking was not as expected [8] - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate is at a high level, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is still weak, and the high price suppresses consumption. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short to medium term [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production decreased slightly, and the price of raw materials increased. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is decreasing. Due to rumors and hedging pressure, light - position wait - and - see is recommended [10] - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reached a new high. Supply pressure comes from Xinjiang, and demand is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and buying on dips is recommended [10][11] - **Polysilicon**: The inventory decreased significantly, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. The policy expectation and weak reality are in a stalemate. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [11] Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is concerned about the lack of significant transfer of Asia - Pacific procurement after Russian oil sanctions. OPEC+ is increasing production, but geopolitical risks may cause a short - term rebound. The long - term price is expected to be bearish [12] - **Asphalt**: The cost support is weakening, and the price is falling. The inventory is being reduced, but the demand is approaching the off - season. The supply pressure is temporarily reduced, but the future trend depends on the rebound of crude oil [12] - **PX**: The crude oil price is fluctuating weakly. PTA's high start - up rate provides some demand support. The PXN spread has rebounded slightly, and the price is mainly driven by crude oil costs [13] - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, and the basis has improved. But the supply is still high, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large in November [13] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased, but the arrival volume is high. The inventory accumulation pressure is large in November, and the price is testing the previous low [13] - **Short Fiber**: It fluctuates with the polyester sector in the short term, but the pressure is large in the later period. Terminal orders are decreasing seasonally, and the inventory is accumulating [14][15] - **Methanol**: The market shows regional differentiation. The port inventory is decreasing slightly, while the inland inventory is increasing. The price may decline in the short term but is expected to enter a consolidation phase later [15] - **PP**: The supply growth rate is higher than the demand recovery rate, and the inventory is high. However, the demand is improving marginally, and the crude oil price provides some cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15] - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken after the peak in early November. The crude oil price provides limited support, and the price is expected to be under pressure [16] - **Urea**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The export is expected to remain at a low level [16] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The Sino - US trade window may open, and China's purchase plan may lead to an increase in export expectations. If the yield is further reduced, the cost - repair logic will be strengthened, and the price may continue to rise [17] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal is abundant. The improvement of Sino - US trade relations may increase the cost of imported soybeans but reduce the risk of supply shortage. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [17] - **Palm Oil**: It has entered a technically oversold stage. Although there was over - production in October, the price may be supported by the increase in international oil and crude oil prices, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains [18][19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by the decline of palm and rapeseed oil, the price may continue to weaken. It is in the consumption season, and the high inventory of rapeseed oil is being reduced [19] - **Corn**: The pressure of wet grain sales is decreasing, and the spot price is stable. The futures price is weak, but the bottom - range support may be effective [19] - **Pigs**: The overall slaughter volume is expected to increase in November, and the profit is in a loss state. The pig price is unlikely to rebound significantly before the winter solstice in December [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and the remarks of multiple Fed officials have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and multiple industry stabilization and growth plans have been introduced, increasing policy support and boosting domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. In terms of assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; among commodity sectors, black is short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and Fed officials' remarks have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and policies have increased support, boosting risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, black is short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels [3]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as coal, banking, insurance, and port shipping, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the acceleration of domestic economic growth and the increase in policy support, risk appetite has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market continued to rise. With the increase in risk aversion and the expectation of Fed rate cuts, spot gold reached a record high. Short - term, precious metals are strongly running, and the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term, long positions can be held or reduced on rallies; medium - and long - term, buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was weak on Thursday, but the futures price rebounded slightly. Market expectations have improved due to the approaching Fourth Plenary Session and expectations for the APEC meeting. The real demand has improved marginally, and steel supply may decline stage - by - stage. The steel market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, while the futures price declined. Iron production is still high, and steel mills' restocking has ended. With the narrowing of profits, the willingness to cut production may increase. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded from the bottom. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased due to the decline in steel production. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, and the Lanzhou charcoal market is stable. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly in a range. Supply has increased marginally, and there is an expectation of anti - involution, forming a bottom support. Demand has improved marginally during the traditional peak season but is currently slowing down. It is expected to run weakly in a short - term range [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: From January to September, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 1.2% year - on - year. Copper social inventory is at a relatively high level. The global copper mine output growth rate is expected to be high in 2026. The US economy has uncertainties, which are potential risk points. In the short - and medium - term, domestic electrolytic copper production is high, demand is facing a test, and de - stocking is less than expected [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, aluminum prices were strong. Aluminum social inventory decreased significantly, and aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly. The smelting profit is high, supply is rigid, imports are high, and demand is weakening marginally. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [12]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tightening globally. The demand has improved slightly but remains weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with support from low smelting start - up and peak - season expectations, but the upside is limited by high - price consumption suppression and macro risks [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's statement about meeting with Putin and the upcoming high - level Sino - US and Russia - US talks have raised expectations of increased Russian oil supply. Western sanctions and Sino - US trade tensions have also affected demand. Crude oil prices are expected to decline [14]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices test support, the probability of asphalt breaking through support has increased. Demand is nearing the end, inventory pressure is increasing, and it is difficult for asphalt to have a strong upward drive [14][15]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: On Thursday, the carbonate lithium futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the industrial silicon futures contract rose slightly. Production has reached a new high, and the 2511 contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt digestion. It is expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly due to rumors of storage and capacity regulation [14]. - **PX**: PX is weakly oscillating. Although it gets some demand support from PTA's high - start, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector [15]. - **PTA**: After the decline of crude oil prices, polyester is in a low - level oscillation. Downstream demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is increasing. PTA prices will continue to run weakly [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The sentiment of ethylene glycol is weak. Port inventory is rising, demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. It is expected to continue to be in an oversupply situation in late October [16]. - **PP**: The PP market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. New capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and the price is expected to be weak [18]. - **LLDPE**: The supply of LLDPE is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is rising slightly. It is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is under pressure, and its future trend depends on the implementation of export policies [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the CBOT November soybean contract rose. Strong domestic demand offset trade concerns, and the September soybean crushing volume reached a record high [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the start - up rate returned to normal. However, the oil mill inventory is under pressure, and the fourth - quarter soybean supply may be loose. Without guidance from US soybeans, it may oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade dynamics for rapeseed meal [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: With the visit of the Canadian foreign minister, the short - term risk of rapeseed oil has decreased. Soybean oil prices may be relatively weak due to inventory pressure [21]. - **Palm Oil**: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle. In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, suppressing prices, but exports also increased, providing some support [21]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has increased, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices to a record low. Although there are signs of second - fattening, the quantity is small. With the decrease in temperature and the recovery of consumption, pig prices may stabilize [21][22].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Short-term geopolitical conflicts have escalated again, leading to a rise in global risk aversion. The domestic market sentiment is improving due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased easing expectations. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short-term upward macro-driving force [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index is oscillating as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, increasing global risk aversion. Domestically, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance will pre - issue part of the 2026 local government debt quota and take measures to resolve implicit debt. Short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased, and domestic easing expectations have increased, leading to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; the commodity sector shows different trends: black is short - term oscillating, short - term cautious observation; non - ferrous is short - term oscillating strongly, short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, cautious observation; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, cautious long positions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, liquor, and banking sectors. Fundamentally, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected, and external demand still strongly drives the economy. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance's policies and the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations have led to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to relevant events, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volume. There are rumors of policy intensification. Fundamentally, demand is still weak, but there are differences among varieties. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons month - on - month, while rebar decreased by 40,000 tons. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar reached a three - year high. Supply - wise, hot - rolled coil production increased by 109,000 tons month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to continue rising. The steel market is likely to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore spot prices rebounded slightly last Friday, and the futures price continued to oscillate. Daily iron - water production rose above 2.4 million tons again last week, but the market expects limited upward space under low - profit conditions. Supply - wise, global iron ore shipments decreased by 8 million tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 720,000 tons. The news of a smelter addition at Simandou pushed up ore prices, but Rio Tinto's focus is on the first - batch shipments, so the event may not last long. Iron ore port inventories continued to rise slightly. Iron ore prices should be treated with a range - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly last Friday. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore spot prices are firm. UMK's October 2025 manganese ore quotation to China shows a price reduction. Inner Mongolia's factory production is stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity in some common - silicon factories in October. Ningxia's production is stable, some southern factories are in losses, and Yunnan and Guangxi's production changes little. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon - iron profits are compressed, electricity - cost support exists, and manufacturers' inventory pressure is acceptable, so the production reduction intention is weak, and the production decline space is limited. Market games continue [6][7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main soda - ash contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, supply increased week - on - week, and the supply pressure exists in the new - capacity release cycle, with an unchanged oversupply pattern. New devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and high supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, mainly driven by rigid demand, but downstream demand support is weak, and the terminal demand support has not changed significantly, with limited demand growth space. The decline in coal prices also had a negative impact. Soda ash still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. A medium - to - long - term bearish view is recommended, but beware of short - term bullish impacts from policies and news and manage positions well [7]. - **Glass**: The main glass contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, glass production was stable, with little week - on - week change. Although it is the peak season, demand growth is limited. The overall glass supply is stable, and demand is difficult to increase significantly. The overall fundamental pattern is loose, but policy sentiment fluctuates. Short - term range oscillation is expected [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the US non - farm annual benchmark was significantly revised downward, and the CPI data was in line with expectations but still high. The market believes that inflation not exceeding expectations has no impact on the Fed's later interest - rate cuts, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to rise, the US dollar declines slightly, and the non - ferrous sector rises. Technically, the LME copper price shows a bullish trend. However, the upward space is cautiously viewed as the global economy is still slowing, and domestic demand is weakening marginally [9]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose significantly last Friday. Besides the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rise in copper prices, the decline in social inventory, the market's belief in the arrival of the inventory inflection point and subsequent de - stocking, and the significant increase in LME aluminum warehouse withdrawal applications for two consecutive days all boosted aluminum prices. Technically, the pressure level is at 21,300 yuan/ton. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and although de - stocking is expected later, the speed and amplitude are slow [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants are short of raw materials, leading to rising production costs. Additionally, it is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost - side support, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upward space is limited due to weak demand [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped by 20.63% to 28.48%, a new low this year, mainly affected by the maintenance of some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and the tightness of the ore end. However, the actual impact is expected to be short - term, and the operating rate will recover after maintenance. With the issuance of mining licenses, the ore end will become looser, and a large amount of Burmese tin ore will be produced after November. On the demand side, terminal demand is still weak. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and in the emerging field of photovoltaics, the pre - installation has overdrawn later - stage installation demand, with the new photovoltaic installation increasing marginally weaker in the past two months, low photovoltaic glass operating rate, and declining photovoltaic solder strip operating rate. The year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicles has also declined. Although the operating rate has dropped significantly, the inventory increased by 108 tons to 9,389 tons this week. As tin prices rise again, downstream procurement slows down, only maintaining rigid - demand procurement. In summary, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by maintenance and peak - season expectations, and boosted by the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but the upward space is still under pressure [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of September 11, the weekly lithium - carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.8% month - on - month increase, and the weekly operating rate was 49.19%. The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a 5.9% week - on - week decline. A meeting on the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine by Yichun CATL was held last week, but the resumption time is undetermined. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, the peak - season demand is strong, social inventory is slightly de - stocking, and smelter inventory is transferred downstream. The fundamentals are improving marginally, but supply - side pressure still exists. The market is expected to oscillate and stabilize, with limited downward space [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly production is 96,229 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. The number of open furnaces is 311, with an increase of 7 in Xinjiang and no change in other regions. The latest social inventory is 539,000 tons, remaining at a high level. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory is 249,900 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. Although the weekly production is at a high level, no inventory accumulation occurred during the wet season. Benefiting from the anti - involution policy, it follows polysilicon in the short term. The China Silicon Industry Conference was held in Baotou last week, and policy disturbances should be noted [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are rising slightly. The total output of silicon - wafer sample enterprises in August was 53.6 GW, and the operating rate was 57.44%, showing an increase. The latest weekly inventory is 278,500 tons, with a marginal increase of 250 tons. The latest warehouse receipts are 7,820 lots, a week - on - week increase of 950 lots. There were news of stockpiling and capacity reduction for polysilicon last week, with strong short - term policy expectations. Polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is advisable to go long on dips [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: After the release of OPEC and IEA reports, there is an expectation of a slight increase in OPEC production in the long term, and the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. However, short - term low - level buying in the spot window has recovered to some extent, and the near - end structure has stabilized, so the probability of a sharp short - term decline in oil prices is still low. Additionally, recent geopolitical risks are frequent, and the supply of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may face channel problems later, providing support at the key lower level. Oil prices will continue to oscillate recently [14]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rebounded slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Wait for the rhythm of demand decline later, and the upward space will be limited. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and currently, social inventory has not shown obvious de - stocking, and factory inventory has only slightly decreased. Profits have recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When asphalt inventory continues to de - stock limitedly, pay attention to the extent of following the rise of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The main contract continues to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector. The slight positive impact from the low previous operating rate and increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has slightly decreased to 233 US dollars recently, the PX outer - market price remains at 832 US dollars, the short - term processing fee of PTA is significantly squeezed, and PX is still in a tight situation. It will oscillate recently, waiting for the change of PTA devices later [15]. - **PTA**: The downstream operating rate has recovered to 91.6%, but the terminal operating rate recovery is limited, the loom operating rate has not increased significantly, remaining at 66%, and downstream inventory continues to increase slightly. The upward space for PTA prices is limited. However, the impact of low processing fees is gradually emerging, with some devices increasing maintenance plans, and other maintenance devices may postpone restarting. The basis has basically remained at 01 - 60 recently, providing support below. When crude - oil prices are stable in the short term, PTA is difficult to have a trending market and will mainly oscillate [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has slightly decreased to 459,000 tons. The Yulong device may be put into operation soon, and the market has fully priced in this. The main - contract price has declined significantly. In addition, downstream operating rates are still restricted by low terminal orders, export orders are still low, and the space for further Christmas - order issuance is limited. Coupled with the gradual return of imports to normal levels, ethylene glycol is likely to continue to oscillate weakly recently [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector, and the price declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, the short - fiber operating rate has rebounded slightly, and short - fiber inventory has accumulated to a limited extent. Further de - stocking depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in the operating rate. Currently, the subsequent upward space may be limited. Short - fiber can be shorted on rallies in the medium term following the polyester end [17]. - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is still increasing, and the current import arrivals remain high. Downstream device maintenance has led to weakening demand, and the overall inventory continues to rise, with high port pressure and inventory reaching a record high. However, port MTO devices plan to restart, the weekly import arrivals are expected to decrease, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season in the inland region is coming, providing support for methanol prices. It will oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [17]. - **PP**: Device production has decreased due to maintenance in the short term, downstream operating rates have increased, order situations have improved, and raw - material inventory has started to rise, indicating the start of peak - season stocking. However, seasonal supply increases and new - capacity releases still keep the supply loose, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Device restarts have increased supply, the operating rate of agricultural films has increased slowly, and recent orders have increased rapidly, showing improvement. The absolute inventory value is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. During the macro - policy vacuum period, market sentiment has declined, and oil prices have fallen. Plastics are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Urea**: Recently, some devices are planned to restart at the end of the month, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Currently, industrial demand is still weak and has recovered slowly after the parade; agricultural demand is sporadic, and the support of port - collection demand for prices is limited, and the emotional boost from Indian tenders is insufficient. If the price continues to fall and breaks the previous low, it may stimulate downstream replenishment. In the short term, the market depends on the release of rigid demand. After entering October, the contradiction between seasonal demand weakening and supply loosening will intensify. The expectation of tightened export policies has been mostly digested by the market. Coupled with new - capacity releases, urea prices will mainly decline at a low level in the medium - to - long - term, but unexpected macro - policy adjustments may provide low - level support or even a slight rebound [18][19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: In the September USDA supply - and - demand report, the US soybean yield was lowered, but the estimate was still slightly higher than expected, and the harvest area increased. The USDA raised the estimated ending inventory, and the report had a bearish impact. However, the market has not relaxed its concern about the pressure on yield caused by diseases and high temperatures at the end of the growing season. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives this week, and CBOT soybeans are stable and strong [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term domestic supply - and - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Oil mills have high soybean arrivals, high operating rates, and are urging提货. On the one hand, imported soybeans are continuously put into storage, and on the other hand, downstream inventories are high due to the previous fast - paced procurement, and the channel inventory formed by cross - regional shipping is gradually emerging, increasing market supply pressure. Although the soybean - meal market valuation is low, the short - term risk appetite of long - position holders is not high, and US soybeans lack directional guidance. It is expected that the supply - and - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and if the US soybean export expectation improves or the yield is further lowered, the bullish US soybean market is expected to raise the oscillation price center of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal still has high - inventory circulation pressure in the short term, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the far - month purchase volume is small. If the policy expectation remains unchanged, there is still a basis for upward

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various asset classes including macro - finance, stocks, precious metals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It points out that short - term macro upward drivers are marginally strengthening, with focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies, loose expectations, Sino - US trade negotiation progress, and implementation of domestic incremental policies. Different asset classes are expected to have different short - term trends, mainly presenting震荡 (oscillation) or震荡偏强 (oscillation with a slightly upward trend) patterns [2][3]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The second - quarter GDP had a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1%. After the New York Fed President Williams hinted at a possible rate cut, market expectations for a Fed rate cut next month increased, the US dollar index was weak, and global risk appetite increased. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and was below expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. With the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days and increased US easing expectations, short - term external risks decreased, and domestic risk appetite increased. - Asset Performance: Stocks are expected to be short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger, with short - term cautious long positions; treasury bonds are expected to be high - level oscillatory in the short term, with cautious observation; commodities: black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals are short - term oscillatory, with cautious observation; precious metals are high - level and slightly stronger oscillatory in the short term, with cautious long positions [2]. Stocks - The domestic stock market fell significantly due to the drag of sectors such as clothing and home textiles, biomedicine, and liquor. - The short - term macro upward driver is marginally strengthening, with focus on Sino - US trade negotiation progress and implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose on Thursday. The Fed's independence concerns and the weakening US dollar supported the upward movement of precious metals. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, and the second - quarter GDP was stronger than expected. The market is focused on the PCE data to be released on Friday. Gold has strong short - term support, but be wary of the Fed's changing attitude [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - Steel futures and spot prices rebounded slightly on Thursday, and trading volume increased slightly. The expectation of steel production cuts in the next two years has increased. - The fundamentals remain weak, with an increase in the inventory of five major steel products and a decline in the apparent consumption of some products. Supply is mixed, with an increase in rebar production and a slight decrease in hot - rolled coil production. There is a possibility of further production restrictions in the north in early September, and the steel market may continue to rebound [5]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded significantly on Thursday. Steel mills' profits are high, but due to production restrictions in the north in the next week, steel mills' procurement is cautious. - Global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. Port inventories decreased slightly on Monday. Iron ore prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices were flat, and silicon manganese prices rebounded slightly on Thursday. The demand for ferroalloys is okay as the production of five major steel products continues to increase. - The production of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia is stable, with some minor production fluctuations. There are new production capacity plans in the future, and the daily output may be affected by 500 - 800 tons. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6][7]. Soda Ash - The soda ash main contract oscillated on Thursday. Supply increased due to the return of previous maintenance, and there is supply pressure with new capacity coming online. - Demand remained stable week - on - week, but overall demand support is weak. Profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Glass - The glass main contract oscillated on Thursday. Supply remained stable, and demand is difficult to improve significantly. - Profits decreased as glass prices fell. With the support of real - estate news, glass is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Due to concerns about US tariffs and the expected tightening of the Japanese central bank's monetary policy, and the weakening of domestic demand, the strong copper price is difficult to sustain [9]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices fell slightly on Thursday, and inventories continued to increase. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and it is expected to be oscillatory in the short term [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. Tin - The supply - side开工率 (operating rate) increased, and the mine supply is expected to be loose. The demand side is weak, but the price decline has stimulated downstream replenishment. Tin prices are expected to be oscillatory in the short term, with support from smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations (restoration of production expectations), and weak demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate main contract fell on Thursday. After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to be widely oscillatory, with short - term short positions and long - term long positions [11]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract fell on Thursday. With the oscillation of black metals and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon main contract fell on Thursday. The production in August is approaching 130,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The possibility of more Russian oil supply entering the market in the short term has decreased, and oil prices rose slightly on Thursday. However, the market has limited risk premium digestion, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [14]. Asphalt - Due to limited oil price changes, the asphalt main price remained almost unchanged. The spot market has slightly improved, but inventory removal is limited. Asphalt is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [14]. PX - After the price increase due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance, PX supply is tight, and it is expected to be oscillatory in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA devices [14]. PTA - The PTA price declined, but there is some support from domestic and South Korean petrochemical capacity adjustments and the temporary shutdown of the Huizhou device. It is expected to be oscillatory in the short term, with attention to the downstream recovery space [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices continued to decline, and port inventories decreased slightly. It is expected to be narrowly oscillatory in the short term, with support from downstream start - up recovery, but supply pressure is still large [16]. Short - Fiber - Short - fiber prices fell slightly due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and it is recommended to short on highs in the medium term [16]. Methanol - The restart of inland devices and concentrated arrivals have pressured prices, but there is some support from the reflux window and the planned restart of MTO devices. Methanol is expected to be oscillatory [16]. PP - The supply - side pressure is increasing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. The 09 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the peak - season inventory situation of the 01 contract [16]. LLDPE - The supply - side pressure remains, and demand is showing a turning point. The 09 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory situation of the 01 contract [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The CBOT soybean price was supported by the continuous improvement of US new - season soybean exports. The export sales of the current market year decreased, while the next - year exports increased significantly. Pakistan is expected to sign a purchase agreement [19]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oil mills' soybeans and soybean meal has eased, but the near - month/spot risk has not subsided. Rapeseed meal has an upward fluctuation basis due to low inventory and few long - term purchases [19]. Oils - Rapeseed oil port inventories are decreasing, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to strengthen. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle, and the market is expected to be oscillatory [20]. Corn - The national corn price is running weakly, but the futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and the possibility of breaking through last year's range is small [20]. Hogs - Group farms continued to reduce weight in August, and the pig price did not rebound as expected at the end of August. The theoretical slaughter volume will increase in September, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Some local areas have started purchasing and storage [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening, with the market focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes are expected to show short - term range - bound trends, and specific investment strategies vary according to different sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about central bank independence, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus has been strengthened, and the short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased while domestic easing expectations have increased, resulting in an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. - Asset Recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; commodities in different sectors are generally expected to oscillate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as rare earth concepts, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. - With the strengthening of policy stimulus, the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty, and the increase in domestic easing expectations, the short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported in the short term due to increased concerns about independence, rising risk of stagflation, and strengthened rate - cut expectations. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's attitude changes, and the market focus is on the upcoming US PCE data [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of steel continued to be weak. Demand was weak, inventory increased, and supply was expected to decline in the future. With strong cost support, a range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined. With strong northern production - restriction expectations, cautious procurement by steel mills, and increasing supply pressure, a range - bound approach is expected in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. Supply in some regions was increasing, but there were potential production - cut plans. A range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: There is a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term under the boost of real - estate news [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The impact of Trump's attempt to remove Cook on the copper market is expected to be small in the short term, and domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price declined slightly. The fundamentals changed little, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to be relatively loose in the long term, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate in a range, considering the high - level oscillation of black metals and polysilicon [13]. - **Polysilicon**: It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and the potential impact of US tariffs on India's oil imports have affected oil prices. There is still some support for oil prices in the near term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and rising crude oil prices, but with limited inventory reduction, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near term [16]. - **PX**: It is in a tight situation in the short term and is expected to oscillate while waiting for changes in PTA device operations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by capacity adjustments and increased downstream demand, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. Supported by downstream demand recovery, but facing supply pressure, short - term buying on dips should pay attention to crude oil cost fluctuations [18][19]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by sector resonance, its price increased slightly. It is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies in the medium term [19]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, but the oversupply situation remains. It is expected to oscillate in price [19]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, but there is policy support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [19]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of turning. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on demand and inventory - building [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The selling pressure of US Treasuries has increased, and the weakening of the US dollar has provided some support to commodities. The expected Sino - US trade negotiations have boosted the export sales expectations of US soybeans [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic soybean and soybean meal in oil mills has eased. Rapeseed meal still has the basis for upward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [21]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to shrink; soybean oil is expected to have a low - valuation price - increase market; palm oil is expected to enter an oscillating phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and there is a low possibility of breaking through the previous range [21]. - **Pigs**: The weight of pigs has declined, and the second - fattening market is cautious. The market's pessimistic sentiment about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22].