投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260206 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外风险偏好降幅，A 股缩量普跌 海外方面，美国开年就业走弱线索增多：①最新初请失业金人数升至 23.1 万人，预期 21.2 万人，受极端天气扰动短期跳升；②12 月 JOLTS 职位空缺降至 654.2 万个，预期 720 万个，创 2020 年 9 月以来新低，且不同规模企业普遍回落，部分反映企业在 AI 提效背景下 对新增岗位需求趋谨慎。欧洲央行 2 月议息会议如期按兵不动，其认为通胀与增长判断基本 稳定、中期通胀仍回归 2%、经济路径与去年 12 月预测一致。行长拉加德认为形势"总体平 衡"，在承认外部不确定性的同时，重申政策立场稳健，短期暂无调整必要。在就业数据走 弱与海外 AI 叙事担忧共振下，市场风险偏好持续收缩：美股普遍下跌超 1%，VIX 抬升；贵 金属再度调整，黄金跌近 4%、白银回撤约 20%；美元指数上探 98 关口，资金转向避险的美 债，10Y 利率回落至 4.17%。原定于本周五晚公布的非农数据推迟至下周三发布，重要 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: Kevin Warsh's nomination as a candidate for the new Fed Chair is expected to have limited impact on the market. His policy stance on quantitative tightening may be difficult to implement. The market's expectations for the US monetary policy path are unlikely to change significantly, and investors should also monitor the US-Iran situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The domestic market is expected to continue with positive policy expectations. In Q1, there is a growing expectation that policies will be intensified to achieve a good start for the economy in the 15th Five-Year Plan. The overall policy environment is favorable, which supports a bullish view on risk assets in Q1 [9]. - Asset views: Structured opportunities in portfolio allocation are emphasized. It is recommended to overweight IC and non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectations, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectations can support the upward movement of the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities but limited odds. The precious metals sector has high short - term volatility, and it is recommended to wait for volatility to decline. Non - ferrous metals are relatively strong and can be considered for right - side allocation after a pullback. Black commodities are range - bound, and crude oil has high uncertainty, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Price and Performance Data Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - On February 5, 2026, most index futures showed declines, such as the CSI 500 futures with a daily decline of - 1.59% and a weekly decline of - 2.9%. Treasury bond futures generally rose, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures having a daily increase of 0.32% and a weekly increase of 0.22% [2]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index rose by 0.27% on February 5, 2026, and the US dollar intermediate price decreased by 25 pips. The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate decreased by 0.95 bp [2]. Interest Rates - The 10Y US Treasury yield increased by 1 bp on February 5, 2026, and the US Treasury 10Y - 2Y spread increased by 1 bp [2]. Industry Index - On February 5, 2026, industries such as consumer services, textile and apparel, and food and beverage showed increases, while industries like non - ferrous metals, steel, and machinery showed declines [4]. Domestic Commodities - On February 5, 2026, commodities such as shipping (container shipping to Europe) and fuel oil showed increases, while precious metals (silver) and non - ferrous metals (nickel) showed significant declines [5]. Overseas Commodities - On February 4, 2026, overseas energy commodities such as NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil rose, while NYMEX natural gas fell. Precious metals like COMEX gold and COMEX silver also rose [6]. 2. Sector Analysis Financial Sector - Stock index futures: The stock market closed down with shrinking trading volume, and the consumer sector strengthened seasonally. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase [10]. - Stock index options: The implied volatility showed a differentiated trend, indicating a range - bound game sentiment. The short - term outlook is range - bound [10]. - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the implementation of monetary policy, risk appetite, and government bond issuance [10]. Precious Metals Sector - Gold: Geopolitical tensions eased, and the "Warsh trade" suppressed liquidity expectations. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the US economic fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and geopolitical trends [10]. - Silver: The structural tightness in the spot market eased, and the "Warsh trade" suppressed liquidity expectations. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch are similar to those for gold [10]. Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: Spot freight rates were under pressure, and shipping companies cut prices to attract cargo before the festival. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include spot market freight rate changes, geopolitical sentiment, and the risk of price wars among shipping companies [10]. Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products: Cost support weakened, and the futures market was under pressure. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [10]. - Iron ore: Hot metal production increased slightly, and inventories continued to accumulate. The short - term outlook is range - bound, with factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather conditions, port ore inventories, and policy dynamics to be monitored [10]. - Coke: Profits recovered, supply increased, and the demand from hot metal production provided support. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include steel mill production, coking costs, and mid - downstream restocking [10]. - Coking coal: Restocking was nearly completed, and the futures and spot markets were range - bound. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include coal mine resumption, Mongolian coal imports, and mid - downstream restocking [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Nickel: There was a game between expected policies and weak reality, and nickel prices were range - bound. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [10]. - Tin: Market sentiment was weak, and tin prices continued to adjust. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [10]. - Copper: The US dollar index continued to rise, and copper prices were under short - term pressure. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovish stance of the Fed, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [10]. - Aluminum: Inventories continued to accumulate, and aluminum prices declined. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [10]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: Supply pressure remained, and geopolitics dominated the rhythm. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [12]. - LPG: Chemical demand weakened, and attention should be paid to Iranian risks. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [12]. Agricultural Sector - Natural rubber: Short - term support was still effective. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [12]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures market had high elasticity, and attention should be paid to the lower - bound support. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [12]. - Cotton: It was range - bound and lacked a unilateral trend before the festival. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include production and demand [12]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar exports still had potential, and the medium - to - long - term outlook was for a range - bound decline. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound decline, and factors to watch include Brazilian port logistics, lower - than - expected northern hemisphere production, and macroeconomic fluctuations [12].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗小幅回升，但钢市产业矛盾不断累积， 需求弱势格局延续，矿价继续承压。与此同时，国内港口到货量低位回升，且矿商发运量持续增加， 海外矿石供应开始企稳，而内矿供应表现平稳，叠加矿石库存高企，供应压力偏大。总之，高库存叠 加矿商发运企稳回升，矿石供应压力未退，而需求表现弱稳，铁矿石基本面依然偏弱，现实逻辑主导 下预计矿价继续承压偏弱运行，关注矿商发运情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | - ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2026-2-6 每日观点 玻璃： 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单数量历史同期低位。 2、深加工行业资金回款不乐观，贸易商、加工厂心态谨慎，消化原片库存为主。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给低位，下游深加工厂订单惨淡，玻璃厂库回升，预期玻璃低位震荡偏弱运行为 主。 2、风险点： "反内卷"政策力度超预期 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润小幅修复，冷修不及预期，供给低位；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱， 库存同期历史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货944元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1088元/吨，基差为-144元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5306.40万重量箱，较前一周增加0. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-2-6 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，随检修回归预计开工将继续回升，综合库存回落， 去库形态较明显。需求端，虽临近春节但订单需求尚可，农业储备需求、贸易需求均良好，工业 需求方面，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工回升明显。出口内外价差大，近期下游需求尚可，国内尿素整 体仍供过于求。交割品现货1760（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-18，升贴水比例-1.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存108.9万吨（+0.9），偏多； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿 ...

文字早评 2026/02/06 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、八部门印发《中药工业高质量发展实施方案（2026—2030 年）》，到 2030 年中药工业全产业链协同 发展体系初步形成； 2、2026 年 APEC 标准与合格评定分委会首次会议在广州召开，会议聚焦脑机接口技术等相关国际标准在 APEC 经济体实施； 3、比特币价格日内一度跌破 7 万美元关口。分析认为，在这一轮大跌后，比特币的上涨动能、市场叙 事以及"避险资产"的标签几乎同时瓦解； 4、美国联邦通信委员会受理 SpaceX 百万颗卫星系统部署申请。这一卫星系统将建立一个环绕地球轨道 的数据中心网络。此外，SpaceX 计划推出星链手机。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.02%/1.08%/4.05%/4.21%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.55%/3.08%/9.04%/6.96%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-4.86%/3.39%/12.81%/9.94%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-6.05%/-0.76%/0.43%/2.34%。 【策略观点】 近期市场轮动节奏加快，热点板块持续性不 ...

白银这次的空头确实比较强劲，究竟哪里是终点现在不得而知，但是黄金的低点我感觉存在二次探底的概率，看看这次会不会到4500美元。 贵金属市场昨夜的表现继续超预期，白银的走势还是让人有点意想不到，一方面是纽约白银期货的跌幅逼近20%，已经从87美元到了70美元；另一方面K线 形态上出现了一根大阴线，不仅仅之前三天的反弹被全部吞吃，而且直接击穿了重要的60日线，应该说如此猛烈的空头走势还是比较罕见的。 黄金的走势虽然没有白银那么夸张，然而昨夜黄金期货也下跌了3%，目前已经跌破了4800美元的大关，当然感觉黄金向下的动能似乎没有白银那么强，因 为相对来说白银已经击穿了此前的低点，而黄金距离三年之前的低点还有300美元的空间。 我觉得白银期货似乎有主动做空的力量存在，因为今天早上又一次从70美元下跌到了64美元，否则的话白银的表现不会这么犀利，换句话说，本来黄金想保 持强势，结果白银这么一走，全被带了下去。 到底该怎么应对这种极端走势？ 我是觉得这次的白银期货走得跟以往不大一样，好像上涨的时候被强大的力量所推动，下跌的时候也是被这股力量打的一点余地都不留，如此现象只能用两 个字来衡量，那就是异常。 这种情形下，千万不要 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 【行情复盘】 | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 周四夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 20 元至 6122 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6235 元/吨 （-15），华南瓶片价格 6250 元/吨（-50）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 825 手至 7.5 万手，空头持仓增加 733 手至 7.8 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【重要资讯】 | | 能源与化 | | | 30.3 万吨，环比+0.38 万吨。 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 65.4%，环比+0.8%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5662 元， 环比-151 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-26 元/吨，环比+22 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 58.87 万吨，较上月增加 5.57 万吨，环比+10.44%。 2025 年 1-12 月累计出口量 645.45 万吨，较去年同期增加 60 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均走弱，假期临近建筑钢厂有所减产，螺纹周产量环比下降，供应如期收缩， 但库存水平高位去年农历同期，压力缓解有限，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求持续走弱， 高频需求指标均下降且继续位于近年来农历同期最低，而下游行业未见好转，弱势格局未变，仍将 拖累钢价。目前来看，螺纹钢供需两端均走弱，基本面弱势格局未变，淡季钢价继续承压，相对利 好则是成本支撑，预计走势延续低位震荡运行为主，关注假期累库情况。 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 缩 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，国内供应收 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日白银再度走弱，跌破本周二低点，黄金也跟随下挫，纽约 ...