文字早评 2026/02/06 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、八部门印发《中药工业高质量发展实施方案（2026—2030 年）》，到 2030 年中药工业全产业链协同 发展体系初步形成； 2、2026 年 APEC 标准与合格评定分委会首次会议在广州召开，会议聚焦脑机接口技术等相关国际标准在 APEC 经济体实施； 3、比特币价格日内一度跌破 7 万美元关口。分析认为，在这一轮大跌后，比特币的上涨动能、市场叙 事以及"避险资产"的标签几乎同时瓦解； 4、美国联邦通信委员会受理 SpaceX 百万颗卫星系统部署申请。这一卫星系统将建立一个环绕地球轨道 的数据中心网络。此外，SpaceX 计划推出星链手机。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.02%/1.08%/4.05%/4.21%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.55%/3.08%/9.04%/6.96%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-4.86%/3.39%/12.81%/9.94%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-6.05%/-0.76%/0.43%/2.34%。 【策略观点】 近期市场轮动节奏加快，热点板块持续性不 ...

白银这次的空头确实比较强劲，究竟哪里是终点现在不得而知，但是黄金的低点我感觉存在二次探底的概率，看看这次会不会到4500美元。 贵金属市场昨夜的表现继续超预期，白银的走势还是让人有点意想不到，一方面是纽约白银期货的跌幅逼近20%，已经从87美元到了70美元；另一方面K线 形态上出现了一根大阴线，不仅仅之前三天的反弹被全部吞吃，而且直接击穿了重要的60日线，应该说如此猛烈的空头走势还是比较罕见的。 黄金的走势虽然没有白银那么夸张，然而昨夜黄金期货也下跌了3%，目前已经跌破了4800美元的大关，当然感觉黄金向下的动能似乎没有白银那么强，因 为相对来说白银已经击穿了此前的低点，而黄金距离三年之前的低点还有300美元的空间。 我觉得白银期货似乎有主动做空的力量存在，因为今天早上又一次从70美元下跌到了64美元，否则的话白银的表现不会这么犀利，换句话说，本来黄金想保 持强势，结果白银这么一走，全被带了下去。 到底该怎么应对这种极端走势？ 我是觉得这次的白银期货走得跟以往不大一样，好像上涨的时候被强大的力量所推动，下跌的时候也是被这股力量打的一点余地都不留，如此现象只能用两 个字来衡量，那就是异常。 这种情形下，千万不要 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 【行情复盘】 | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 周四夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 20 元至 6122 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6235 元/吨 （-15），华南瓶片价格 6250 元/吨（-50）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 825 手至 7.5 万手，空头持仓增加 733 手至 7.8 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【重要资讯】 | | 能源与化 | | | 30.3 万吨，环比+0.38 万吨。 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 65.4%，环比+0.8%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5662 元， 环比-151 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-26 元/吨，环比+22 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 58.87 万吨，较上月增加 5.57 万吨，环比+10.44%。 2025 年 1-12 月累计出口量 645.45 万吨，较去年同期增加 60 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均走弱，假期临近建筑钢厂有所减产，螺纹周产量环比下降，供应如期收缩， 但库存水平高位去年农历同期，压力缓解有限，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求持续走弱， 高频需求指标均下降且继续位于近年来农历同期最低，而下游行业未见好转，弱势格局未变，仍将 拖累钢价。目前来看，螺纹钢供需两端均走弱，基本面弱势格局未变，淡季钢价继续承压，相对利 好则是成本支撑，预计走势延续低位震荡运行为主，关注假期累库情况。 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 缩 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，国内供应收 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日白银再度走弱，跌破本周二低点，黄金也跟随下挫，纽约 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant investment rating information provided in the reports [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The continuous improvement of the stock market since 2026 is due to factors such as the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. In February, the market is expected to continue its phased positive trend, benefiting from the “Spring Market” window period, the release of policy dividends at the beginning of the “15th Five - Year Plan”, clear profit expectations for AI and overseas - expansion themes, seasonal recovery of the consumer end, and the implementation of investment projects. However, potential disturbances from overseas capital market fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday, especially geopolitical risks, need to be watched out for [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices were 4671.60, 4665.20, 4636.00, and 4585.20 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively. There were declines in price, with the largest decline of - 0.40 in the next - quarter contract. The trading volume was highest in the next - month contract (70168.00). Some contracts saw an increase in open interest, while the current - month contract decreased by 387.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices showed a decline. The largest decline in percentage was - 0.14 in the next - month contract. The trading volume was highest in the next - month contract (36122.00). All contracts had an increase in open interest, with the largest increase in the next - month contract (1146.00) [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices decreased significantly. The largest decline in percentage was - 1.96 in the contract for the quarter after next. The trading volume was highest in the next - month contract (112281.00). All contracts had an increase in open interest, with the largest increase in the next - month contract (4345.00) [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices decreased. The largest decline in percentage was - 1.67 in the contract for the quarter after next. The trading volume was highest in the next - month contract (142554.00). Some contracts had a decrease in open interest, such as the current - month contract which decreased by 3835.00 [1] - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The current inter - monthly spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 6.40, - 2.20, - 24.80, and - 38.00 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous day's index was 4698.68, with a trading volume of 264.88 billion lots and a total trading value of 6360.19 billion yuan, showing a 0.83% increase [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous day's index was 3069.24, with a trading volume of 61.04 billion lots and a total trading value of 1698.82 billion yuan, showing a 1.14% increase [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous day's index was 8068.08, with a trading volume of 275.82 billion lots and a total trading value of 4409.65 billion yuan, showing a - 1.69% decrease [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous day's index was 2520.32, with a trading volume of 4621.33 billion lots and a total trading value of 2642.27 billion yuan, showing a - 1.55% decrease [1] - **CSI 300 Industry Index**: Different industries had different performance. The main consumer, pharmaceutical and healthcare, and real estate and finance industries had positive growth rates of 2.73%, 1.19%, and 1.46% respectively, while the information technology industry had a - 1.89% decline [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - **IF Contracts**: The basis between the current - month, next - month, and next - quarter IF contracts and the CSI 300 index was 0.12, - 5.08, and - 33.68 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The basis between the IC contracts and the CSI 500 index showed significant negative values [1] - **IM Contracts**: The basis between the IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index also showed certain negative values [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and other domestic indexes showed different trends. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a 0.14% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index had a - 0.88% decrease [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The DAX index was 24373.06, with no information on its change compared to the previous period provided [1] 3.5 Macro Information - **Policy**: The Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Taxation Administration jointly announced tax exemptions for inbound goods purchased by Hainan Free Trade Port residents within the duty - free quota and product list, with an annual quota of 10,000 yuan per person and no limit on purchase frequency [2] - **Technology**: OpenAI launched GPT - 5.3 - Codex and a new enterprise - level platform Frontier, competing with Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 [2] - **Consumption and Trade**: The 2026 National Service Consumption and Service Trade Conference emphasized the shift from goods - consumption - led to service - consumption - led, and encouraged the cultivation of new service - consumption growth points and service exports. In 2025, China's service trade imports and exports reached 80823.1 billion yuan, a 7.4% increase year - on - year, with a reduction in the service trade deficit of 3439.5 billion yuan. Travel service imports and exports reached 22067 billion yuan, a 7.6% increase [2] - **International Relations**: The US established a critical minerals trade mechanism, with South Korea as the chair until June. China's Foreign Ministry opposed any country using “small - circle” rules to disrupt international economic and trade order [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicted that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 would fall to 180GW - 240GW, and the average annual new installed capacity during the “15th Five - Year Plan” would be 238GW - 287GW. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized addressing the industry's involution [2] - **Memory Industry**: The global HBM shortage has spread from data centers to the consumer electronics sector, especially affecting the smartphone industry. Qualcomm and Arm warned that the shortage would limit phone production, and some manufacturers planned to cut production and lower shipment targets [2] - **Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry**: Eight departments jointly issued a plan for the high - quality development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, aiming to achieve certain goals by 2030, such as cultivating 60 high - standard raw material production bases [2] - **Internet Industry**: As of the end of 2025, China's netizen population reached 1.125 billion, with an Internet penetration rate exceeding 80%. The number of generative AI users reached 602 million, a 141.7% increase year - on - year, and the penetration rate was 42.8% [2]

1.据阿联酋《国家报》：在美伊准备进行外交谈判之际，白宫正秘密征询具有影响力的伊朗裔美国 人士的意见，为伊朗现政权潜在的倒台制定局势过渡计划。 2.据中国黄金协会最新统计数据显示：2025 年，我国黄金消费量 950.096 吨，同比下降 3.57%。其 中：黄金首饰 363.836 吨，同比下降 31.61%；金条及金币 504.238 吨，同比增长 35.14%；工业及 其他用金 82.022 吨，同比增长 2.32%。2025 年，国内黄金 ETF 全年增仓量为 133.118 吨，较 2024 年全年增仓量 53.266 吨增长 149.91%。至 12 月底，国内黄金 ETF 持仓量为 247.852 吨。 3.摩根大通预计，今年央行黄金净买入量将达到 800 吨，仍比 2022 年之前的水平高出 70%。今年来 自各国央行和投资者的需求足以在 2026 年底将金价最终推高至每盎司 6300 美元。 宏 4.芝加哥商品交易所（CME）当地时间 2 月 5 日发布通知，对部分黄金、白银和铝等期货合约的保 证金（Outright Rates）进行调整。文件显示，黄金的新保证金比例上调至 9%的水平，白银 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Wind All A index dropping by 1.11% and a trading volume of 2.19 trillion yuan [3][9] - The CSI 1000 index fell by 1.69%, the CSI 500 index by 1.84%, the CSI 300 index by 0.6%, and the SSE 50 index by 0.33% [3][9] - Consumer and financial sectors showed strength despite the overall market downturn [3][9] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced to support the market fundamentals [3][10] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to establish a national-level merger fund and to regulate local economic promotion behaviors [10] - A series of significant projects in high-tech industries are being planned for the 14th Five-Year Plan period [10] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 25 basis points [10] - This rate cut aims to provide targeted financial support for specific sectors, including technology innovation, inclusive elderly care, and carbon reduction [10] - The adjustment is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, enhancing their valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [10] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced an increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100% [10] - This change has led to increased risk aversion among investors, resulting in a high volatility market environment [10] Bond Market - The bond futures market showed gains, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.38% and the 10-year main contract by 0.08% [11] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 300 billion yuan for 14 days and 118.5 billion yuan for 7 days [11] - The money market rates, such as DR001 and DR007, showed slight declines, indicating a stable liquidity environment [11][12] Precious Metals - London spot gold and silver prices weakened, with the gold-silver ratio slightly falling to around 56 [12] - The platinum-palladium price spread increased to approximately 491 USD/ounce [12] - Market sentiment was affected by geopolitical tensions and economic data, leading to increased volatility in precious metals [12]

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 6 日星期五 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 3.08%报 4798.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 16.64% ...

Group 1: Report's Overall Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - Panic sentiment persists, and base metals are under pressure with a volatile trend. In the short term, the negative impact of the sharp drop in silver prices remains, but its marginal effect is weakening. It is advisable to wait and see or cautiously take short - term long positions in copper, aluminum, and tin with strict position control. In the long term, due to the expected weak US dollar and supply - side disturbances, copper, aluminum, tin and other varieties are expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - **View**: The US dollar index continues to rise, putting short - term pressure on copper prices. In the long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the rising US dollar index pressures copper prices. In terms of supply and demand, copper mine supply disturbances increase, TC of copper concentrate spot drops, and the long - term processing fee in 2026 is at a record low, strengthening the expectation of refined copper supply contraction. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak, and social inventory of refined copper is high [7] Alumina - **View**: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and the alumina price fluctuates. - **Logic**: Recently, macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the average spot price has dropped significantly, increasing the expectation of supply contraction as high - cost inland production faces losses. However, in reality, supply contraction is insufficient, and the weakening of raw material prices weakens the price support. The futures price also faces pressure, so it is expected to fluctuate widely [7] Aluminum - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices decline. In the short and long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, short - term risk appetite decreases, but the long - term macro expectation remains positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is stable, and overseas production is restricted. On the demand side, the initial - stage operating rate drops, and high prices suppress demand. Inventory continues to accumulate. Overall, the positive macro expectation and the tight supply - demand expectation are expected to support the price [7][8][9] Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Cost support persists, and the price fluctuates downwards. In the short and long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum remains high, and supply is tight. On the supply side, some manufacturers start the Spring Festival holiday early, and policies may restrict supply. On the demand side, the subsidy for car replacement decreases, and high prices suppress demand. Inventory accumulates. Overall, cost support and stable supply - demand are expected to keep the price relatively strong [11] Zinc - **View**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous metal market weakens, and zinc prices decline again. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and in the long term, there is room for a decline. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the expectation changes due to Trump's nomination. On the supply side, zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and refinery profits decline. On the demand side, domestic consumption enters the off - season, and demand is average. In the short term, zinc exports continue, and inventory accumulation pressure is small. In the long term, supply is expected to increase, and demand growth is limited [13] Lead - **View**: The weakening sentiment in the non - ferrous metal market competes with high cost support, and lead prices fluctuate. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot premium rises, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead decreases slightly. On the supply side, the production of recycled lead decreases due to environmental protection and profit factors. On the demand side, electric bicycle orders weaken, but automobile battery orders improve, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is still at a relatively high level. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate [18] Nickel - **View**: The expected policy competes with the weak reality, and nickel prices fluctuate. It is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the overall supply pressure remains high. On the demand side, it enters the traditional off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. Policy - wise, Indonesia's potential policy changes have adjusted the market's cost and balance expectations. Overall, the price is expected to be volatile and relatively strong, and the policy changes need to be continuously tracked [20] Stainless Steel - **View**: The price of nickel iron drops slightly, and the stainless - steel futures market fluctuates. It is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: The cost side still has some support. The production in December decreased, and the planned production in January may increase slightly. Terminal demand is cautious, and inventory accumulates. Overall, the price is expected to be volatile and relatively strong, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [21] Tin - **View**: Market sentiment is weak, and tin prices continue to adjust. In the long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong, but short - term price volatility risks need to be vigilant. - **Logic**: Supply is the key factor affecting the price. The supply problem in some areas may be alleviated, while in others, it is still restricted. In the future, supply will be tight, and demand will continue to grow. However, in the short term, the strong US dollar, stable supply, and weakening bullish power may cause price fluctuations [23] Group 4: Market Monitoring Commodity Index - On February 5, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2401.01, down 0.84%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.41, down 0.99%; the industrial product index was 2300.28, down 0.97% [149] Non - ferrous Metal Index - On February 5, 2026, the index was 2696.94, with a daily decline of 1.55%, a 5 - day decline of 5.55%, a 1 - month decline of 2.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.41% [151]