Industry Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations in November, with a brief "high to low" style switch that lacked clarity in the main themes, while dividend stocks showed slight relative performance [2] - Global stock markets saw declines, influenced by fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and concerns over potential AI asset bubbles [2] - The outlook suggests that style switching may not be sustainable in the short term, with a focus on large-cap growth styles until early next year [2] Energy and Basic Materials - The "anti-involution" policy is advancing, leading to a divergence in demand between old and new economies, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace under observation [2] - Prices for various commodities showed mixed performance: thermal coal up 6%, lithium carbonate up 16%, while coking coal and iron ore prices fell by 17% and 1% respectively [2] - The U.S. government has resumed operations, alleviating some liquidity concerns, but the job market remains resilient, warranting attention to future Federal Reserve meetings [2] Industrial Products - The domestic real estate chain remains weak, while emerging markets present significant opportunities for exports [3] - In October, domestic excavator sales grew by 2% year-on-year, while export sales increased by 13% [3] - The photovoltaic industry chain has seen a slowdown in price increases, with prices for polysilicon and solar cells remaining stable month-on-month [3] Consumer Products - Traditional consumer sectors are struggling, with policies aimed at boosting consumption being gradually introduced [4] - Home appliance sales have declined significantly, with washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners down by 23%, 27%, and 24% year-on-year respectively [4] - The Central Committee has emphasized the need to stimulate consumption, with plans to create three trillion-level consumption sectors by 2027 [4] Technology - Continuous innovation in AI applications is noted, with domestic models progressing steadily [5] - The technology sector's leading stocks faced adjustments in November, but companies in communication equipment are expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure in North America [5] - The gaming sector remains robust, with 166 game licenses issued in October, maintaining a high level [5] Financial Sector - Bank stocks are attracting long-term capital due to their high dividend yields and stable earnings [6] - The insurance sector saw an 8% year-on-year increase in premium income in October, with total assets growing by approximately 16% [6] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market fell to 1.9 trillion yuan in November, indicating a decline in market activity [6] Real Estate - The focus remains on destocking and debt reduction, with significant policy support anticipated [6] - In November, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 36% year-on-year, although it rose by 1% month-on-month [6] - The price index for new and second-hand residential properties in 70 major cities declined by 2.6% and 5.4% year-on-year respectively [6] Recommendations - Focus on AI applications, particularly in domestic computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, as well as sectors like innovative drugs and energy storage [7] - Certain non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from global monetary order restructuring and demand recovery [7] - Export performance is currently stronger than domestic demand, with companies in sectors like electrical equipment and engineering machinery showing promising prospects [7]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 01 日 哪些行业可能成为轮动的"下一站"？若市场继续追逐弹性，可能会选择"今年表现强势，但尚未明显修 复"的行业。从 SW 一级行业来看，电力设备在今年以来涨幅靠前，上涨 40.85%，但在 11 月 21 日至今仍下跌 1.22%，有望吸引资金关注。基础化工今年以来上涨 28.25%，而在 11 月 21 日至今仍下跌 1.39%，同样可能成为 轮动方向。而若市场避险情绪升温，则可能会选择"今年上涨不多，且尚未明显修复"的行业，如消费和红利品 种。此外，11 月以来的政策空窗期已基本进入尾声，市场可能提前博弈 12 月政治局会议和中央经济工作会议的政 策，消费、地产等行业有望迎来阶段性反弹。 港股科技和红利品种的调整幅度，已基本来到历史底部经验值。科技方面，恒生科技在 10 月 3 日至 11 月 21 日下跌 19.26%，从 2024 年 10 月以来的经验来看，其每段跌幅基本处于 20%-30%范围内；红利方面，港股通红 利低波指数在 2024 年 10 月以来的下跌分为两类，一是小幅下跌，跌幅处于 5%-7%附近；二是大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the organic silicon industry, such as Xin'an Co. and Xingfa Group, as well as those benefiting from the significant price increase of chlorosulfonic acid, like Kaisheng New Materials [5]. Industry Performance - In the fourth week of November, the chemical sector (Shenwan) rose by 2.98%, outperforming the Shanghai A-share index, which increased by 1.40%, leading the market by 1.58 percentage points [2][13]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector is 24.43 times, higher than the average PE of 8.22 times since 2015 [2][13]. Sub-industry Trends - Five sub-industries within the chemical sector saw increases, with the top performers being polyurethane (+3.04%) and other plastic products (+0.64%). Conversely, 27 sub-industries experienced declines, with the largest drop in vinylon (-7.93%) [3][17]. Chemical Prices and Spreads - The report highlights significant price increases for several chemicals, with PVDF powder rising by 26.32% and chlorosulfonic acid by 9.31%. The largest price drops were seen in dichloropropane (-9.29%) and PTFE dispersion emulsion (-7.41%) [4][22]. - In terms of price spreads, the top increases were in the spreads for octanol (+21.87%) and ethylene glycol (+19%), while the largest declines were in PTA spread (-224.92%) [4][41]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include a decrease in inventory for monoammonium phosphate (-13.94%) and an increase for acetic acid (+8.49%) [5][57].

一、强势个股 截至12月1日收盘，上证综指上涨0.65%，收于3914.01点，深证成指上涨1.25%，收于13146.72点，创业 板指上涨1.31%，收于3092.5点。今日沪深两市A股共计75只涨停，综合当前连板数以及当日龙虎榜数 据，其中较为强势的前三只个股分别为：国晟科技（603778）、实达集团（600734）与梅雁吉祥 （600868）。今日强势个股前10位具体数据见下表： | 代码 | 隋称 | 连板数 | 换手率(%) | 成交额 | 龙虎特净买入额 | 最高价是否创一年来新高 | 所属行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603778 | 国演科技 | 16天11预 | 26.61 | 21.52亿元 | 2288.46万元 | 是 | 建筑装饰 | | 600734 | 实达集团 | 8天6板 | 29.32 | 33.47亿元 | 3.3亿元 | 종 | 通信 | | 600868 | 梅雁古祥 | 4天3板 | 10.3 | 7.51亿元 | 8099.93万元 | 是 | 公用事业 | | 600981 | ...

12月1日，A股市场整体上涨。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3914.01点，上涨0.65%；深证成指收报13146.72点，上涨1.25%；创业板指收报3092.5点，上涨 1.31%。两市合计成交18739.38亿元，较上一交易日增加2881.42亿元。 1. 两市主力资金净流出超3亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出9.06亿元，尾盘净流入10.36亿元，全天净流出3.43亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2025-12-1 | -3. 43 | -9.06 | 10. 36 | 40. 37 | | 2025-11-28 | 68. 25 | -61.72 | 40. 10 | 92. 02 | | 2025-11-27 | -186. 22 | -37.77 | -49. 42 | -81. 47 | | 2025-11-26 | -110. 12 | -71. 22 | -15. 41 | 20. 13 | | ...

Market Overview - In November 2025, major indices experienced a decline after reaching a ten-year high earlier in the month, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index dropping by 4.23% [5][10] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic despite short-term fluctuations, supported by improving fundamentals and policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand [5][37] Economic Environment Analysis - The global economy is expected to remain stable, with the IMF projecting a slight decline in global growth rates from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 [17] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to continue its interest rate cuts in December, which could positively influence market conditions [18][34] - Domestic economic indicators show a mixed picture, with manufacturing PMI at 49.2, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold [21] Policy Measures - Recent policies are focused on enhancing consumer spending and ensuring a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan, with specific measures to stimulate demand across various sectors [25][27] - The central bank is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential for further interest rate cuts and adjustments to enhance market adaptability [28][33] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight allocation in sectors such as basic chemicals, TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), electric power equipment, and machinery [38][39] - In the basic chemicals sector, there is a focus on new materials and fine chemicals, driven by national policies aimed at upgrading key industries [39] - The TMT sector is expected to benefit from rapid growth in AI infrastructure and innovations in consumer electronics, particularly with companies like Apple leading the charge [41][42] Industry Insights - The electric power equipment sector is undergoing a transformation, with a shift from price competition to value-driven strategies, particularly in the solar energy segment [47] - The machinery sector is seeing robust demand driven by major infrastructure projects and technological advancements, with a notable increase in exports [49] - The semiconductor industry is poised for growth, particularly in AI-related applications, as domestic companies ramp up production capabilities in response to global demand [46]

化工龙头ETF（516220）涨超1.2%，行业景气度有望维持高位。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 中银国际指出，基础化工行业当前估值处于历史中高位，SW基础化工市盈率为24.44倍（历史 72.41%分位数），市净率2.24倍（历史55.53%分位数）。行业受关税政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影 响显著，六氟磷酸锂价格因供需紧张持续上涨，11月均价环比上涨65.85%，主要由于头部企业产能满 负荷运行，而新增产能投产延后，叠加动力与储能订单需 ...

Macro Analysis - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of stabilization in November, indicating a weak recovery driven by improved exports due to the easing of trade tensions between China and the US, with new export orders and small enterprise PMI significantly rebounding [2] - Seasonal disruptions from the October holiday have ended, leading to a rise in production and procurement indices [2] - Both raw material and finished product price indices have increased, suggesting an ongoing improvement in the supply-demand relationship for industrial goods [2] Strategy Insights - The market is expected to remain in a wide fluctuation phase, with a potential bull market direction, although short-term catalysts may be lacking [4] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock monthly stock picks for December include companies like Tencent Holdings, China Petroleum, and Haier Smart Home, indicating a focus on sectors with growth potential [3] Bond Market Overview - The total bond custody volume increased significantly in October, with a net increase in interest rate bonds and credit bonds, while financial bonds saw a net decrease [5] - The convertible bond market experienced slight adjustments, with high-priced and high-valuation convertible bonds facing pressure [6] - Credit bond issuance rose to 5,890.11 million yuan, reflecting a 1.34% increase week-on-week, with overall credit spreads trending upwards [7] Chemical Industry Insights - The signing of a major potash fertilizer contract at $348 per ton indicates a tight supply-demand situation, supporting the industry's positive outlook [11] - Oil prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production policies, with Brent and WTI prices reported at $62.32 and $58.48 per barrel respectively [12] Energy Sector Developments - The storage and hydrogen energy sectors are expected to see continued growth, with government support for market-driven adjustments and the promotion of hydrogen ammonia construction [13] Copper Industry Analysis - The China Copper Raw Material Negotiation Group has requested a 10% reduction in copper production capacity for 2026, indicating a tightening supply situation [14] Utility Sector Updates - The National Development and Reform Commission has released new pricing policies for electricity distribution, which may lead to a valuation recovery in the green electricity sector [15] Automotive Sector Performance - Pony.ai reported significant revenue growth in its Robotaxi segment, with expectations for continued expansion and improved profitability [16] - Li Auto's third-quarter performance was under pressure, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts, but the company remains optimistic about its market positioning [17] Apparel Industry Trends - Chow Tai Fook's sales growth turned positive in Q2, with a notable increase in revenue from priced jewelry, prompting an upward revision of profit forecasts [18] - Bosideng's revenue grew by 1.4% in the first half of the fiscal year, supported by stable growth in its branded down jacket business [19]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced declines in November, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index down nearly 3%, and the ChiNext Index down over 4%. As December approaches, various brokerages have released their recommended stocks for the month, revealing interesting trends in investment preferences [1]. Group 1: Popular Stocks - Midea Group is highlighted as a "popular stock" for December, being included in the recommendation lists of four brokerages. The company shows strong fundamentals in its home appliance business, rapid growth in its new energy and industrial technology sectors, and recent advancements in AI and robotics [3]. - Zhongji Xuchuang is also recommended by three brokerages, having increased by over 8% in November, with a current stock price of 514.5 yuan. The company has a clear technological advantage in the optical module field and is seeing a steady increase in overseas orders [4]. - Not all recommended stocks performed well; for instance, Goldwind Technology saw a decline of 1.85% in November, which may present a better entry opportunity for investors [4]. Group 2: Hot Investment Sectors - The cyclical sector is favored by multiple brokerages, particularly in the basic chemicals and industrial technology fields. Analysts suggest that the end-of-year policy window may validate a "policy bottom," potentially serving as a catalyst for economic growth in 2026 [5]. - The consumer sector is also noted, with a focus on previously lagging consumer stocks that tend to perform better during market fluctuations. The trend of consumption upgrading continues, especially among leading high-end and essential consumer goods, which exhibit strong defensive characteristics and stable long-term returns [5]. - The technology growth sector is advised to focus on less crowded areas. After adjustments in October, concerns regarding AI have largely dissipated, making sectors like gaming, media, and computing more attractive in terms of valuation [5]. Group 3: Mid to Long-term Investment Strategies - A combination of cyclical stocks and policy bottom strategies is recommended, with a focus on monitoring end-of-year policy developments, especially in fiscal and industrial policies, targeting leading companies in chemicals and industrial technology [6]. - Differentiated investments in the technology sector are advised, avoiding overheated AI stocks and concentrating on reasonably valued segments like gaming, media, and computing, with a patient approach to waiting for rotation opportunities [7]. - A balanced allocation strategy is suggested, with 30% in high-dividend, low-volatility financial and consumer leaders as a stabilizing force, and 70% in cyclical and technology growth sectors for aggressive positioning [8]. - A global perspective is encouraged to capture opportunities in resource commodities like gold and copper, as well as in manufacturing sectors benefiting from overseas interest rate cuts, preparing for a potential global economic recovery [8].

每日经济新闻 中信证券分析称，12月份市场面临美联储降息与否、中央经济工作会议部署等变量，考虑到市场增量资 金主要以绝对收益导向资金为主，A股/港股可能出现"急跌慢涨"。从配置角度看，资源/传统制造业定 价权的重估、企业出海仍是核心增配方向，建议关注化工、电新等方向。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.4%，石油石化行业占比为32.7%，有望充分受益于反内卷、调结构和 淘汰落后产能等政策。 12月1日，A股三大股指高开，沪指涨0.14％，深成指涨0.42％，创业板涨0.26％。中证石化产业指数震 荡上行，现涨约1.4%，成分股和邦生物涨停，藏格矿业、亚钾国际、三棵树等跟涨。相关ETF方面， 石化ETF（159731）近6天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"1882.16万元，资金布局特征明显。 ...