当国际金价距离5000美元/盎司仅一步之遥，当伦敦银现仅用两个月时间便实现翻倍，当铜铝铅锌锡上演 起"元素周期表"行情，当硫磺价格一年翻倍、碳酸锂迭创新高……这一系列看似独立的市场脉冲正汇聚成 一股时代洪流，宣告着全球大宗商品市场正迈入新一轮的"超级周期"。 "这轮周期的持续强度、持续时间都可能远超我们想象。"近期，多位基金经理向券商中国记者表达了类似的观 点，在全球货币超发、美元信用危机、技术革命创新需求、地缘冲突引发供应链重构等众多因素共振下，全球 大宗商品可能迎来一场远超市场预期的周期浪潮，而嗅觉敏锐的公募基金正闻风而动，将投资罗盘的指针拨向 现代工业的"血液"与"基石"——有色金属与基础化工，不仅定位着这场全球商品盛宴的历史坐标，更寻找着浪 潮之下具体的产业掘金路径。 全球大宗商品迎来第三轮"超级周期" 历史从不简单重复，但总是押着相同的韵脚。回溯百年，大宗商品的"超级周期"往往与全球经济格局的剧变、 技术革命的浪潮以及货币体系的重构紧密相连。如今，我们再次站在一个多重历史因素交汇的十字路口。 "本轮超级商品周期的根源，可以追溯到全球性的货币超发。"汇添富基金权益投资总监王栩指出，自2008年次 贷危 ...

当国际金价距离5000美元/盎司仅一步之遥，当伦敦银现仅用两个月时间便实现翻倍，当铜铝铅锌锡上 演"元素周期表"行情，当硫磺价格一年翻倍、碳酸锂价格迭创新高……这一系列看似独立的市场脉冲， 正汇聚成一股时代洪流，预示着全球大宗商品市场正迈入新一轮超级周期。 "这轮周期的持续强度和时间，可能远超我们想象。"近日，多位基金经理向证券时报记者表达了类似的 观点。在全球货币超发、美元信用危机、技术革命创新需求、地缘冲突引发供应链重构等众多因素共振 下，全球大宗商品可能迎来一场远超市场预期的周期浪潮，而嗅觉敏锐的公募基金正闻风而动，将投资 罗盘的指针拨向现代工业的"血液"与"基石"——有色金属和基础化工，在定位这场全球商品盛宴历史坐 标的同时，也寻找着浪潮之下具体的产业掘金路径。 大宗商品迎来第三轮超级周期 历史从不简单重复，但总是押着相同的韵脚。 回溯百年，大宗商品的超级周期往往与全球经济格局的剧变、技术革命的浪潮以及货币体系的重构紧密 相连。如今，我们再次站在一个多重历史因素交汇的十字路口。 "本轮超级商品周期的根源，可以追溯到全球性的货币超发。"汇添富基金权益投资总监王栩指出，自 2008年次贷危机之后，现代货币 ...

当国际金价距离5000美元/盎司仅一步之遥，当伦敦银现仅用两个月时间便实现翻倍，当铜铝铅锌锡上 演"元素周期表"行情，当硫磺价格一年翻倍、碳酸锂价格迭创新高……这一系列看似独立的市场脉冲， 正汇聚成一股时代洪流，预示着全球大宗商品市场正迈入新一轮超级周期。 "这轮周期的持续强度和时间，可能远超我们想象。"近日，多位基金经理向证券时报记者表达了类似的 观点。在全球货币超发、美元信用危机、技术革命创新需求、地缘冲突引发供应链重构等众多因素共振 下，全球大宗商品可能迎来一场远超市场预期的周期浪潮，而嗅觉敏锐的公募基金正闻风而动，将投资 罗盘的指针拨向现代工业的"血液"与"基石"——有色金属和基础化工，在定位这场全球商品盛宴历史坐 标的同时，也寻找着浪潮之下具体的产业掘金路径。 大宗商品迎来第三轮超级周期 历史从不简单重复，但总是押着相同的韵脚。 回溯百年，大宗商品的超级周期往往与全球经济格局的剧变、技术革命的浪潮以及货币体系的重构紧密 相连。如今，我们再次站在一个多重历史因素交汇的十字路口。 "2026年，非常有希望成为物价走势变局之年。"万家基金权益投资部基金经理叶勇直言，这可能触发市 场风格的重大切换，其信心主 ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 地方债发行提速，关注风格切换——资产配置周 报 —固定收益周报 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 12 月实体部门负债 增速录得 8.4%，前值 8.6%，符合预期。预计 2026 年 1 月实 体部门负债增速继续下降至 8.3%附近。金融部门方面，上周 资金面边际上略有收敛，符合预期。本周地方债发行节奏似 乎有所加快，若能在 2 月持续，可带动实体部门负债增速在 2 月出现轻微反弹，但 2 月资金面边际上进一步松弛概率有 限。合并来看，2 月底之前我们对权益市场持乐观看法，关 注后续风格能否由目前的成长持续占优逐步向均衡、甚至价 值占优方向转化；而若上述情景发生，2 月债市调整风险有 所上升。2025 年 12 月 24 日，央行发布四季度例会通稿，明 确指出，"使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、 价格总水平预期目标相匹配"，这表明稳定宏观杠杆率的大 方向仍然没有动摇，等待 2026 年两会给出定量财政目标。 财政政策。上周合计政府债（包括国债和地方债）净增加 6214 亿元（高于计划的净增加 5075 亿元），按计划下 ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李振方 S0350524080003 lizf@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 2026 年 1 月 22 日，国海化工景气指数为 92.92，较 2026 年 1 月 15 日上升 0.68。 投资建议： 日本首相高市早苗近期在国会发表涉台错误言论，暗示可能武力介入台 海局势，引发日本国内多方批评及中国政府严正交涉。我们认为，中日 关系紧张使得行业有望加快对日本半导体材料的替代，由于日本在半导 体材料方面市占率较高，我国国产率均较低，国产替代有望加速。涉及 标的： 1)光刻胶：鼎龙股份、阳谷华泰、彤程新材、晶瑞电材、久日新材、万润 股份、雅克科技、容大感光、南大光电等； 2)湿电子化学品：江化微、格林达、晶瑞电材、飞凯材料、多氟多、兴发 集团等； 3)电子气体：昊华科技、巨化股份、雅克科技、硅烷科技、杭氧股份、凯 美特气、和远气体、金宏气 ...

Group 1 - The equity market experienced a volatile upward trend from January 19 to 23, 2026, with the Wande All A closing at 6893.11, up 1.81% from January 16, and the China Convertible Bond Index rising 2.92 during the same period [1][9] - The market has entered a narrow fluctuation range since January 13, with a net outflow of 265.9 billion yuan from stock ETFs from January 19 to 22, indicating a "slow bull" market sentiment [1][16] - The implied volatility has returned to a low level, suggesting a nurturing environment for a rebound, with the market attempting to break out of the fluctuation state [1][21] Group 2 - The strategy suggests maintaining a "slow bull" mindset, as the market attempts to break out of the narrow fluctuation range and return to an upward trend [2] - Historical analysis of 64 cases of upward breakouts from narrow fluctuation ranges since 2005 shows that such breakouts typically lead to a sustained upward trend [2][42] - The analysis of 48 instances of volume peaks since 2005 indicates that while upward trends continue after volume peaks, the pace of increase slows down, often leading to prolonged periods of fluctuation before resuming upward trends [2][45] Group 3 - In the convertible bond market, the valuation indicators are showing a decline in their timing significance, with the absolute price median and valuation center remaining at historically high levels [3][29] - The valuation center for convertible bonds at various price points remains high, with the 80 yuan parity corresponding to a valuation center of 54.44%, and the 100 yuan parity at 41.12% [3][29] - The market for convertible bonds is seeing renewed inflows, particularly in the context of strong underlying stocks, with a significant reduction in the number of convertible bonds priced below 130 yuan [3][61]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a high-level fluctuation, with increasing attention on corporate fundamentals as more companies disclose their 2025 performance forecasts [1] - Market analysts predict that from late January to before the Spring Festival, the overall market may maintain a strong oscillation pattern, with a continuation of differentiated trends [1] Investment Opportunities - Institutions suggest focusing on short-term rotation and rebound opportunities in the technology innovation sector, particularly in the "AI+" downstream applications and upstream materials and infrastructure [1][9] - The manufacturing and resource sectors show clear paths for profit recovery, with a focus on industries like non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals that have performance support under price increase logic [1][5] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, marking a significant step in promoting high-quality development in the public fund industry [2] IPO Developments - The CSRC has approved the IPO registration of Shenzhen Dapu Microelectronics Co., marking the first approval for an unprofitable company on the ChiNext board, which focuses on enterprise-level storage and serves key applications in AI and cloud computing [3] Consumer Market Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce has proposed initiatives to enhance consumption, including a "trade-in" program for consumer goods, aiming to stimulate demand in sectors like automotive and home goods [4] Sector-Specific Insights - China Galaxy emphasizes the importance of performance indicators in guiding structural market trends, with a focus on high-growth sectors and profit recovery in specific segments [5] - Dongwu Securities highlights that companies with better-than-expected performance are likely to yield excess returns, particularly in sectors like computing, communication, lithium batteries, and energy storage [6] - Zhongtai Securities recommends a segmented and dynamic investment strategy, focusing on high-elasticity sectors such as robotics within the technology sector [7][8] Investment Strategies - Jiashi Fund suggests a cautious approach, focusing on two main investment opportunities: "AI+" applications and low-position domestic demand sectors benefiting from policies aimed at expanding domestic consumption [9] - Lobo Mai Fund maintains a positive outlook on copper demand, noting a strengthening growth logic amid supply contraction trends [10] - Caitong Fund asserts that the current AI sector is not in a bubble phase, with significant growth potential as more companies launch AI applications [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the resurgence of the commercial aerospace sector driven by the space photovoltaic theme, with significant stock performance from companies like Liancheng CNC and Optec [11][12] - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 2.6%, while trading volume decreased, indicating a shift of funds from large-cap indices to small-cap stocks [6][16] - The report notes that public fund disclosures for Q4 2025 show a decrease in the market value of heavy holdings in the North Exchange, suggesting a trend of profit-taking among investors [12] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of Elon Musk's statements at the Davos Forum, which have activated interest in the space photovoltaic sector, with a focus on companies like Liancheng CNC [13] - Investment analysis suggests maintaining high market activity before the Spring Festival, with recommendations to invest in undervalued stocks and sectors with good growth prospects, such as semiconductors and AI computing [13] - The report details the performance of new stocks listed on the North Exchange, including Aisheren and Guoliang New Materials, which saw significant first-day price increases [28][31] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock performance, noting that 218 stocks rose while 71 fell, with a rise-to-fall ratio of 3.07, indicating a strong market sentiment [38] - It highlights the top-performing stocks of the week, including Huawai Design and Liancheng CNC, which experienced substantial gains [40] - The report also discusses the trading dynamics, with a notable decrease in trading volume and turnover rates for certain stocks, reflecting market volatility [43][26] Group 4 - The report outlines the new listings and financing activities in the New Third Board, indicating a healthy pipeline of new companies entering the market [49] - It mentions the completion of financing for several companies, showcasing the ongoing interest and investment in emerging sectors [50][51] - The report concludes with a summary of the current state of the New Third Board, including the number of companies listed and the financing amounts raised [49][50]

2026 年 1 月 25 日 总量研究 热点主题投资或仍占优 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20260125 要点 本周市场核心观点： 本周（2026.01.19-2026.01.23，下同）市场整体震荡上行，主要宽基指数量能 表现分化，大盘宽基量能表现好于中小盘宽基。市场情绪方面，本周主要宽基指 数及宽基指数 ETF 期权成交量 PCR 延续震荡回升态势，衍生品投资者短线交易 情绪小幅降温。资金面方面，本周股票型 ETF 资金大幅净流出，周期主题 ETF 资金周度净流入 186.43 亿元。 行业主题表现方面，资源品表现持续占优。后市或延续震荡上行表现，中长线持 续看好"红利+科技"配置主线，短线重视资源品、科技方向投资价值。 本周市场各指数涨跌不一，上证综指上涨 0.84%，上证 50 下跌 1.54%，沪深 300 下跌 0.62%，中证 500 上涨 4.34%，中证 1000 上涨 2.89%，创业板指下 跌 0.34%，北证 50 指数上涨 2.60%。 截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，宽基指数来看，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、创业板指处于估值分位数"适中"等级，上 ...

Group 1: Global Market Overview - Global stock markets generally declined in the week ending January 23, 2026, except for A-shares, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Index performing well[2] - Major commodity futures, including crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum, saw price increases, while the US dollar index fell, leading to appreciation of the RMB, JPY, and EUR[2] - The average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 27,750 billion RMB, down from 34,283 billion RMB[2] Group 2: Domestic Equity Market Insights - As of January 23, 2026, 24 out of 31 sectors in the Shenwan industry index rose, with the top gainers being construction materials (+9.23%), oil and petrochemicals (+7.71%), and steel (+7.31%)[2] - The banking sector experienced a decline of -2.70%, while telecommunications and non-bank financials fell by -2.12% and -1.45%, respectively[2] Group 3: Chemical Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to enter a longer positive cycle, with historical average ROE for basic chemicals projected at 10.14% from 2006 to 2024, and peaks of 16.32% in 2007 and 17.6% in 2021[8] - Factors supporting this outlook include the clearing of outdated facilities in Europe and Japan, a slowdown in new domestic projects, and a gradual global economic recovery[8] Group 4: Interest Rates and Currency Trends - Short-term funding rates are expected to stabilize post-tax period, with the central bank's supportive stance likely to mitigate the impact of maturing deposits on liquidity[9] - The 1Y government bond yield rose by 3.95 basis points to 1.2819%, while the 10Y yield fell by 1.26 basis points to 1.8298%[2] Group 5: Commodity Price Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, WTI crude oil prices rose to $61.07 per barrel, a 2.7% increase from the previous week[29] - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,981.31 per ounce, reflecting an 8.31% increase week-on-week[45]