| 象胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年9月17日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 9月16日 | 9月15日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 15150 | 15000 | 150 | 1.00% | | | 全乳基元 | -890 | -ddc | 105 | 10.55% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 15150 | 14950 | 200 | 1.34% | | | 非标价差 | -890 | -1045 | 155 | 14.83% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.20 | 52.55 | -0.35 | -0.67% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.20 | 56.00 | 0.20 | 0.36% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 13200 | 13200 ...

Report General Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researcher: Feng Zeren (Glass, Soda Ash) [4] Report Core Content 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash: The short - term contradiction in the industry has been alleviated, but the supply - demand pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. With the improvement of macro - sentiment, the arrival of the peak season, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, the soda ash futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly strong trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro changes [8]. - Glass: The overall glass production shows a slight upward trend, and industry profits have improved. Industry inventory has started to accumulate again. Affected by the peak - season demand and anti - involution expectations, the glass futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly strong trend in the short term [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market** - On September 16, the price of the main soda ash futures contract SA601 rebounded significantly, closing at 1339 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton or 3.15%, with a daily reduction of 101,682 lots in positions [7]. - Fundamentally, the weekly production growth rate has slowed down, and the inventory reduction has decreased. The high - inventory and weak - demand situation persists. The weekly production reached 761,100 tons, a 1.24% increase from the previous week. The factory inventory decreased to 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons from last Thursday. The total shipment volume was 785,700 tons, a 1.44% decrease from the previous week, and the overall shipment rate was 103.23%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points [8]. - **Glass Market** - Fundamentally, the overall glass production has slightly increased but is still at a low level. Spot prices have rebounded, and industry profits have improved. Deep - processing orders remain basically unchanged, mainly driven by rigid demand, and inventory has started to accumulate again. Different types of glass have different market situations. The supply - side pressure of float glass has been marginally relieved, and the cost side has certain support, but the demand side remains weak. The demand for new - house glass continues to decline, while the production of automobiles and home appliances is increasing, providing some support for glass demand. The photovoltaic glass market has seen a significant price increase [9][10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy - soda market price, and flat - glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][15][17]

2025年1至6月份，国联股份的营业收入构成为：石油化工占比56.12%，粮油贸易占比16.11%，卫生用 品行业占比13.36%，化肥行业占比7.1%，玻璃行业占比5.6%。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——海拔4306米现"秦始皇密令"，获官方"身份认定"！古文字学家刘钊：秦人 寻仙采药足迹确至青藏高原 每经AI快讯，2025年9月16日，上交所对国联股份（SH 603613，收盘价：32.96元）及相关人员予以通 报批评：公司多期定期报告相关财务信息披露不准确且涉及金额巨大，未依规及时回复监管函件，募集 资金使用不规范，上述行为违反了《公开发行证券的公司信息披露编报规则第15号——财务报告的一般 规定》，《上市公司监管指引第2号——上市公司募集资金管理和使用的监管要求》（证监会公告 〔2022〕15号）第六条，《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》（以下简称《股票上市规则》）第1.4条、 第2.1.1条、第2.1.4条、第5.2.11条、第7.7.3条和《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第1号——规范 运作》第6.3.2条、第6.3.3条等有关规定。鉴于相关违规事实和情节，经本所纪律处分委员会审核通过， ...

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown improvement, with blast furnace operating rates increasing by 3.5% week-on-week and 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 6.2% [2][5] - The chemical production chain has also seen a rebound, with soda ash and PTA operating rates rising by 1.1% and 5.5% respectively, year-on-year changes of 2.7 percentage points to 12.5% and 8.5 percentage points to -6.3% [2][12] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has improved, increasing by 6% week-on-week and 5.8 percentage points year-on-year to 73.5% [12] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - Infrastructure construction remains at a high level, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates rising by 4.3% and 1.1% respectively, year-on-year changes of 5.8 percentage points to -5.5% and 1.1 percentage points to -4.4% [2][16] - Asphalt operating rates have slightly decreased by 1.8% week-on-week but remain at a high level year-on-year at 12.4% [2][22] Group 3: Real Estate and Demand - Real estate transactions have improved, with the average daily transaction area of new homes rising by 9.6 percentage points year-on-year to 6.3%, particularly in first and second-tier cities [2][25] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has shown strong performance, with year-on-year increases of 3% to 7.2% and 7.8% to 13.4% for cargo and container throughput respectively [2][32] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have rebounded, with prices for eggs, vegetables, and pork increasing by 1.3%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively [3][57] - Industrial product prices are showing divergence, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index increasing by 0.1% week-on-week, while energy and chemical prices decreased by 0.2% and metal prices increased by 0.3% [3][63]

Group 1: Cement Industry - The average national cement shipment rate in August 2025 was 45.2%, down from 48.8% in the same period last year, with a year-on-year decrease in cement production of 6.2% to 148 million tons [1][2] - The average price of cement from July to September 2025 was 338 yuan/ton, showing a slight rebound from the low point in August, with a month-on-month increase of 2 yuan/ton [2] - Companies to watch include Conch Cement (600585), Shangfeng Cement (000672), and China Resources Cement Technology (01313) due to potential marginal improvements in demand as the peak season approaches [2] Group 2: Glass Industry - From January to August 2025, the area of completed housing decreased by 17% year-on-year to 27.7 million square meters, indicating significant pressure on glass demand due to ongoing real estate downturn [3] - The daily melting capacity of float glass was 15.9 million tons as of September 2025, remaining stable compared to the end of last year, with high inventory levels of 55 million boxes [3] - Companies to focus on include Xinyi Glass (00868) and Qibin Group (601636) as the industry may see improvements in structure due to supply contraction [3] Group 3: Steel Industry - In August, both supply and demand in the steel sector weakened, with crude steel production at 77.37 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%, and apparent domestic consumption at 68.39 million tons, down 0.8% year-on-year [4] - Anticipated production adjustments in the fourth quarter may improve industry supply and demand dynamics, leading to a potential recovery in the profitability cycle [4] - Key companies to monitor include Hualing Steel (000932) as the industry’s core assets are currently undervalued [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating bullishly" [6]. Core View of the Report - With the deepening of the traditional peak season, steel demand is expected to improve, driving the restocking demand from the bottom - up of the industrial chain. Coupled with the boost from overseas macro and domestic market sentiment, there is still room for the sector to oscillate upward before the holiday [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation - The overall black building materials sector oscillated strongly during the day session and night session yesterday due to the approaching Fed rate cut and the introduction of domestic industry growth - stabilizing plans, which led to a resurgence of the "anti - involution" trading sentiment. The restocking logic before the National Day strengthened, benefiting furnace materials and plate products with strong demand, while building materials were still dragged down by poor demand [1][2]. 2. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Brazilian port maintenance impact weakened, and shipping volume returned to normal. Demand recovered to a high level, but the low inventory in factories and the need to verify the peak - season demand for rebar limited its upside. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: Its fundamental contradictions are not prominent. It follows the movement of finished products and is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Carbon Element - **Coke**: With the approaching National Day, steel mills will start pre - holiday stockpiling. The cost support is strong due to the resurgence of the anti - involution sentiment, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the coal mines resume production, they are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. The mid - and downstream pre - holiday restocking has started in advance, and with the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. 4. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The stable prices of semi - coke and electricity costs support the price in the short term. However, the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [3]. 5. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline if it returns to fundamental trading [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [3]. 6. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, but the supply - demand situation is weak. The inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradiction of rebar is more prominent than that of hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas shipping has recovered, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The demand is at a high level, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand has also increased slightly. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented. The supply is still relatively loose, but the cost support is strong. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has started restocking. With the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11][12]. - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction, and the price is expected to decline [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The downstream restocking has driven the upstream destocking. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost and peak - season expectations support the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [15][16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost supports the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [17]. 7. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend on September 15, 2025 [99]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index rose by 0.87% on September 15, 2025, and the increase in the past 5 days was 1.17%, while the decrease in the past month was 0.62%, and the decrease from the beginning of the year was 3.87% [100].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips for stock indices; hold a wait-and-see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black building materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Wait-and-see or hold long positions on dips for copper, with short-term trading; recommend buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][16][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; rubber is expected to trade with a bullish bias; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][23][31][33] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][37][39] - Agricultural and livestock products: Recommend shorting on rallies for hogs and eggs; corn is expected to trade in a range; soybean meal is expected to trade in a range; oils are expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][41][43][47] Core Views - The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals [5] - The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally [5] - The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season [9] - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand [10] - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [12] - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand [16] - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [16] - The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17][18] - The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [20] - The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply [23] - The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory [25] - The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [27] - The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [28] - The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [31] - The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [33] - The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [36] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [37] - The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [38] - The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [39] - The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [40] - The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [41] - The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [42] - The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [43] - The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [46] - The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [47] Summary by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [5] - Treasury bonds: The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [5] Black building materials - Coking coal: The coking coal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [7] - Rebar: The rebar market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [7] - Glass: The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [9] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [10] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [12] - Nickel: The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [16] - Tin: The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [16] - Silver and gold: The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [20] - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [23] - Styrene: The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [25] - Rubber: The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [27] - Urea: The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [28] - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [31] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [33] - Soda ash: The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [36] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [37] - PTA: The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [38] - Apples: The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [39] - Jujubes: The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [40] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [41] - Eggs: The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [42] - Corn: The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [43] - Soybean meal: The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [46] - Oils: The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [47]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the recommendation of Huaxin Cement, highlighting the high elasticity of the African cement market which is expected to accelerate [6][9] - The African cement market has a significant capacity of approximately 270 million tons, with a strong mid-term prosperity supported by urbanization [6] - Huaxin Cement is positioned as a leader in the African market, with recent projects in Nigeria exceeding profit expectations and plans for overseas asset spin-offs to accelerate expansion [6][9] Summary by Sections Cement Market - Cement shipments have shown a slight recovery, with a national average shipment rate of approximately 46.4%, a month-on-month increase of 1.2 percentage points, but a year-on-year decrease of 4.4 percentage points [7][24] - The average national cement price increased by 0.4% month-on-month, as companies push for price increases to improve profitability [7][24] Glass Market - The float glass market has seen a slight price increase, with some regions experiencing price fluctuations, but overall demand remains moderate [8][35] - The production capacity remains stable, with 283 production lines and a daily melting capacity of 159,455 tons [8][35] Special Fabrics and African Chain - The report recommends special fabrics, particularly focusing on Zhongcai Technology as a core leader due to high demand and supply barriers [9] - The African chain includes recommendations for Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing, with both companies expected to benefit from market conditions and expansion plans [9] Stock Performance - The report indicates that the construction materials sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index over the past 12 months, with a performance of 56% [10]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The expectation for domestic demand is strengthening due to intensified debt reduction policies and a backdrop of overseas interest rate cuts [1][2] - The government aims to establish a debt management mechanism that aligns with high-quality development, focusing on reducing existing hidden debts while promoting economic stability [2] Group 2: Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand as it enters the peak season in September, although growth remains limited [2] - The implementation of policies to restrict overproduction is anticipated to enhance capacity utilization in the medium term, with current low demand and prices [2] - Key companies to watch include Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [2] Group 3: Glass Industry - The glass industry currently lacks fundamental support, with supply-demand imbalances persisting and limited improvement in downstream demand [3] - The industry is expected to experience bottom-level price fluctuations, with environmental regulations likely to accelerate the pace of industry upgrades [3] - Key company to monitor is Qibin Group [3] Group 4: Fiberglass Industry - The fiberglass sector is experiencing a surge in demand driven by the AI industry, with a notable increase in both volume and price for low dielectric products [3] - The industry is expected to see explosive growth in demand alongside AI advancements [3] - Key companies to focus on include China Jushi and China National Building Material [3] Group 5: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price pressure expected [3] - The sector is experiencing strong calls for price increases and profitability improvements, with several product categories issuing price increase notices [3] - Key companies to watch include Oriental Yuhong, Skshu Paint, Beixin Building Materials, and Rabbit Baby [3]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. The upstream cost side still provides support, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the possible impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling; if not, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 15, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from September 12. The full - latex basis decreased by 14.37%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 1.34%. The price of cup rubber in the international market decreased by 0.67%, while the price of glue increased by 0.36%. Some domestic raw material prices remained unchanged [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.46%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 75.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.91% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, India's decreased by 2.17%, and China's decreased by 1.27%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. Domestic tire production decreased by 8.16%, while tire exports increased by 10.51%. The total import of natural rubber increased by 2.47%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 5.40%. The production cost of some dry rubbers in Thailand decreased, and the production margin of STR20 dry rubber increased by 16.72% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 1.30%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed to varying degrees [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: The overall sentiment of the commodity market has improved, and soda ash has rebounded due to macro - sentiment. However, the fundamental oversupply problem still exists. In the medium - term, downstream demand will remain at the previous rigid - demand level. After the traditional summer maintenance season, with high supply, if there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, inventory will face further pressure. It is advisable to short on rebounds [3]. - **Glass**: The glass market has rebounded due to the improvement of the macro - atmosphere. Last week, the spot market had good transactions and inventory decreased. However, the inventory in the middle reaches has not been significantly reduced. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Short - term: stay on the sidelines; medium - term: pay attention to the actual demand in the peak season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 0.16%, and the glass 2509 contract decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 0.66%, and the soda ash 2509 contract decreased by 0.37% [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash开工率 increased by 1.24%, and the weekly production increased by 1.25%. The float - glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.70%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [3]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The log market shows a pattern of "weak supply and demand, stable prices, and slightly decreasing inventory". The core contradiction lies in the game between weak demand and fluctuating supply. Prices are temporarily stable with cost support. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of shipment volume in the seasonal peak season. Currently, the 09 contract has new registered warehouse receipts, and the spot market pressure has increased. It is recommended to go long on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 15, the log 2509 contract decreased by 0.39%, the log 2511 contract increased by 0.81%, and the log 2601 contract decreased by 1.15%. The prices of some spot logs remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply**: In August, the port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38%. As of September 12, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 302 million cubic meters, an increase of 8 million cubic meters from the previous week. The expected number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports this week decreased by 50% compared with last week, and the arrival volume also decreased by 50% [4]. - **Demand**: As of September 12, the daily log outbound volume was 6.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.17 million cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The cost of industrial silicon is expected to rise as raw material prices increase and the electricity price in the southwest region will go up during the dry season. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance. Considering the possible impact of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week and the increasing demand for downstream replenishment before the National Day, the price of industrial silicon may rise slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips, but also be aware of the inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Main - contract Basis**: On September 15, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 12.09%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 122.22%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 0.58%, and the basis decreased by 0.76% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 99.77%, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1750.00%, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 98.63%, the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 100.00%, and the 2602 - 2603 spread remained unchanged [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon output increased by 14.01%, Xinjiang's by 12.91%, Yunnan's by 41.19%, and Sichuan's by 10.72%. The national开工率 increased by 6.20%, Xinjiang's by 15.25%, Yunnan's by 44.09%, and Sichuan's by 19.83%. The output of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, the output of polysilicon increased by 23.31%, the output of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1.60%, and the export volume of industrial silicon increased by 8.32% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.93%, the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.62%, the Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory remained unchanged, the social inventory increased by 0.37%, the contract inventory decreased by 0.19%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.86% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints In the short term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the market is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Fundamentally, the overall supply reduction in September is not obvious as some factories resume production to make up for the supply reduction. The silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and there may be a slight inventory build - up in September. The downstream has accepted the price increase of polysilicon, and the spot transmission mechanism is smooth. In the future, the market pays less attention to fundamentals and more to policy expectations, so the price fluctuation risk is high. It is advisable to be cautious and follow the situation of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 15, the average price of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer prices increased, with the 210mm silicon wafer increasing by 3.07% and the 210R silicon wafer increasing by 3.62%. Some battery and component prices remained unchanged [6]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract decreased by 0.12%. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the month - on - first - continuous spread increasing by 100.22% [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 0.73%, and the weekly polysilicon output increased by 3.31%. The monthly polysilicon output increased by 23.31%, the import volume increased by 40.30%, the export volume increased by 5.96%, and the net export volume decreased by 14.92%. The monthly silicon wafer output increased by 6.24%, the import volume decreased by 15.41%, the export volume increased by 11.37%, and the net export volume increased by 15.56%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.14% [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78%, and the polysilicon contract increased by 0.38% [6].