投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250709 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：铜、药、半导体关税将至，A 股反弹接近前高 海外方面，美国"软数据"继续修复，6 月纽约联储一年期通胀预期降至五个月低点 3%， 居民裁员担忧减轻。关税加征与谈判节奏趋稳，市场避险情绪缓解，美国财长与日本首席谈 判代表通话，或于下周访日。特朗普宣布拟加征铜关税 50%，药品关税最高达 200%，制药 业获 18 个月调整缓冲期，半导体关税即将公布，对欧盟关税信函或将两日内发出。商务部 长卢特尼克称，将在未来两天发出 15–20 封关税信函，铜关税最快 7 月下旬生效。美元指 数回升至 97.7，10Y 美债利率站上 4.4%，美股震荡走平，金价回吐涨幅下破 3300 点位，铜 价受关税消息影响，美铜一度飙升 16%，伦铜则跌超 2%。 国内：A 股放量上涨，上证指数逼近 3500 关口，两市成交额回升至 1.47 万亿，风格上 创业板、科创 50 表现占优，行业上光伏、电池、多元金融板块领涨， ...

Group 1: Macro - The domestic policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures. The upcoming July Politburo meeting is expected to introduce growth - stabilizing policies. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but leaves long - term uncertainty for trade - dependent sectors [2] - The four major stock index futures contracts closed up, with IM performing the strongest. The market sentiment is warm, but the trading volume shrank by 89.1 billion yuan, showing cautious chasing sentiment. Mid - term breakthrough needs fundamental support [2] - For unilateral strategies, focus on long opportunities in small and medium - cap indexes, beware of basis fluctuations. For arbitrage strategies, there may be IM/IC reverse arbitrage opportunities due to the convergence of deep discounts in far - month contracts [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The low dollar index supports oil prices, but the US non - farm data reduces the possibility of a July interest rate cut and the OPEC+ July meeting has expectations of accelerated production increase, so oil prices will fluctuate in the short term [3] - Trump's tweet and potential OPEC+ production increase put oil prices in a relatively weak position, but the upcoming summer peak season provides some support. Market expectations for summer demand are pessimistic [3] - Pay attention to the support level of around $65 per barrel for WTI [3] Group 3: Gold - The June non - farm data basically rules out a July interest rate cut. Trump's tariff policy and central bank gold - buying behavior support gold prices in the long term [4] - In the short term, trade risks and high - interest rate prospects weaken gold's appeal, but in the long term, the "Big and Beautiful Act" and tariff uncertainties enhance its hedging value [5] - Focus on the battle around the $3350 per ounce multi - empty dividing line, with support around $3300 per ounce. Pay attention to the Fed's June meeting minutes [5] Group 4: Silver - On July 8, Asian session, spot silver opened at $36.769 per ounce and maintained a narrow - range oscillation [6] - The US economic recovery is weak, tariff policies increase uncertainty, but Indian physical investment and industrial demand support silver prices. The gold - silver ratio has reached a new low [6] - In the short term, pay attention to the support in the range of $36.60 - $36.45 per ounce. Policy games before August 1 may boost silver prices [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4805 yuan/ton. Cost support is weak, and the supply pressure has increased significantly. Demand is sluggish with a negative outlook [7] - It will be in a short - term weak consolidation. Pay attention to raw material disturbances and downstream production cuts [7] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4347 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance with inventory pressure. It will oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - Be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports. Aggressive investors can short on rallies [8] PVC - The spot price in East China has decreased. Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventory has increased [9][10] - The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10] PP - The spot prices in different regions have decreased. Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand has weakened slightly, and inventory has decreased [11] - The fundamentals have not improved, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [12] Plastic - The spot prices in different regions have decreased. Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has changed slightly, and inventory has decreased [13] - The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [13] Soda Ash - The spot price in Shahe remains unchanged. Supply has decreased due to more maintenance, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14] - It is recommended to adopt a bottom - range oscillation strategy in the short term [14] Glass - The spot price in Shahe remains unchanged. Supply has increased, inventory has decreased slightly, and demand is weak [15] - It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy in the short term [15] Rubber - The spot prices of different types of rubber are provided. New rubber supply has increased, and raw material prices have declined. Demand from the tire industry is weak [16] - It will oscillate with the market, and the rebound height may be limited. Pay attention to downstream tire开工 rates [16] Methanol - The spot prices in different regions remain unchanged. The futures price has decreased, port inventory has increased, supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand is weak [17] - The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory accumulation and Iranian plant resumption [17] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The spot prices in different regions are provided. The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is in a new - old grain transition period. Demand is weak [18][19] - The futures price will test the support level of around 2300 yuan/ton in the short term [19] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions are provided. The expected increase in planting area may pressure far - month prices. The current market is in a supply - demand weak pattern [20] - The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short - term range. Pay attention to the support around 8000 yuan/ton [20] Cotton - The spot prices are provided. The US production forecast has been revised down, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose. The current supply is tightening, but demand is weak [21] - The cotton price will oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to market speculation [21] Pig - The spot price has decreased. Supply has increased as farmers are more willing to sell, and demand is weak due to high temperatures and lack of holidays [22] - The 2509 contract has high uncertainty. Pay attention to pig slaughtering [22] Egg - The spot price has decreased. Supply is sufficient as the number of laying hens increases, and demand is weak. The price is under pressure [23] - The price will oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to farmers' culling intentions and it is recommended to wait and see [23] Soybean Meal - The spot prices in different regions are provided. International factors are tariffs and weather, and domestic supply pressure is high while demand is strong [24] - The price may oscillate weakly in the short term [24] Soybean Oil - The spot prices in different regions are provided. Internationally, pay attention to US soybean growing weather and MPOB report. Domestically, supply pressure is high and demand is in the off - season [25] - The price may oscillate weakly in the short term [25] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The spot price has decreased. Trump's tariff threat on copper has caused fluctuations in US copper. Domestic policies support the market, but raw material issues and inventory changes complicate the market [26] - The copper price has fallen from above 80,000 yuan. Consider removing defenses on rallies [26] Shanghai Aluminum - The spot price has decreased. The high probability of a Fed rate hike in July and tariffs suppress prices. Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is starting to accumulate [27] - Aggressive investors can conduct range operations, and conservative investors should wait and see [27] Alumina - The spot price is basically stable. Trade policy uncertainty increases. Supply is affected by bauxite shortages, demand is stable but the procurement rhythm has slowed, and inventory costs have decreased [28][29] - The over - supply expectation remains, and it may be stimulated by news in the short term [29] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price remains unchanged. Cost provides support, supply is facing over - capacity, demand will enter the off - season, and inventory is increasing [30] - The 2511 contract will maintain a range oscillation [30] Lithium Carbonate - The spot prices remain unchanged. Cost support has strengthened, supply is stable at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [31] - Aggressive investors can try long positions near the moving average, and conservative investors should wait and see [31] Industrial Silicon - The spot prices have increased. Supply is expected to remain high, and demand varies in different sectors. It will oscillate strongly in the short term but face over - supply pressure in the long term [32] - Adopt a range operation strategy and wait for key support and pressure levels [32] Polysilicon - The spot prices have increased. Supply is structurally differentiated, demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [33][34] - Pay attention to the 40,000 - yuan pressure level. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking [34] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The spot price remains unchanged. The cost is supported, supply pressure exists, demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory has decreased slightly [35] - It will oscillate in a wide range at a low level [35] Rebar - The spot price remains unchanged. Macro sentiment has improved, cost support has strengthened, demand has increased slightly in the off - season, inventory is low, and supply is expected to shrink [36] - Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [36] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price has decreased. Similar to rebar, macro factors drive the market, cost support is strong, demand has increased slightly, and supply is expected to shrink [37] - Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [37] Iron Ore - The spot prices are provided. Import volume has increased slightly, demand is facing short - term contraction due to environmental policies, port inventory has decreased slightly, and the market has large differences [38] - The main contract will oscillate in a range in the short term, and investors should be cautious [38] Coal - The spot price of coke has increased. For coking coal, production has increased, inventory has decreased in some areas, and prices have rebounded slightly. For coke, production losses have increased, demand has decreased slightly, and inventory has decreased [39][40] - Coking coal will remain weakly stable, and the coke main contract may oscillate strongly. Pay attention to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 9, 2025, including base spreads, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different sectors such as power coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][15][23][37][46]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Base Spread**: On July 8, 2025, the base spread of power coal was - 175.4 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase compared to previous days [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads were all 0.0 yuan/ton from July 2 to July 8, 2025 [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spread of INE crude oil was - 26.99 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1420 [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: The base spread data for fuel oil was not fully available on July 8, 2025 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP were - 35, 67, 95, 105, and 605 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was 50 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 870 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the spread of LLDPE - PVC was 2364 yuan/ton, and the spread of LLDPE - PP was 196 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were 67.0, 60.8, - 126.1, and - 48.5 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For rebar, the 5 - 1 month spread was 9.0 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 1 month spread was - 20.0 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.18, and the ratio of rebar to coke was 2.1502 [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 270, 65, - 40, - 130, 1250, and - 600 yuan/ton respectively [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Data**: On July 8, 2025, the LME spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 51.31, - 0.60, - 9.88, - 23.04, - 207.63, and - 20.00 respectively; the Shanghai - London ratios were 8.08, 7.94, 8.16, 8.40, 7.95, and 7.94 respectively [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and rapeseed meal varied [39]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of palm oil was - 145 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread was 51 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.77, and the ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.71 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 39.85, 19.39, 19.74, and 171.90 respectively [47]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For CSI 300, the spread between the next - month and the current - month contract was - 16.8 [47].

2025年7月9日 星期三 股债 数据体现我国经济韧性,市场避险情绪缓和,建议股指多头持有。市场利率 盘整,国债走势窄幅反弹,国债多头轻仓持有。 黑色 临汾地区部分停产煤矿陆续复产,"反内卷"下成材供应或有望收缩,关注 政策的具体文件落地,需求侧暂无明显增量,螺纹供需弱平衡。 黄金 东南亚产区天气趋于缓和,割胶工作逐步恢复,胶水系需求拖拽,与原料杯 胶价格表现分化。轮胎样本企业产能利用率下行。供需两端矛盾未有明显缓 解,天然橡胶价格仍延续承压。 特朗普延长关税暂缓期,贸易谈判显示乐观情绪,但仍存不确定性。市场对 美联储最早降息时间推至10月,关注本周美联储会议纪要。预计黄金维持高 位震荡。 原木 现货市价格偏稳运行,到港量预计环减,供应中枢下移,供应压力减缓,日 均出库量维持在6.7万方左右,供需矛盾不大,关注原木期货交割对原木价格 的影响。 橡胶 生猪 当前养殖端挺价情绪较强,北方多地生猪走货顺畅,猪价短期或延续涨势, 进入7月后,南方生猪供应预计偏紧,或接棒北方引领新一轮行情上涨。 - 浙江新世纪期货有限公司 - 客服热线:400-700-2828 关注#新世纪期货#微信公众号 了解更多 油粗 美豆种植面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements in each sector, and provides corresponding trading strategies and risk warnings. The overall market is influenced by factors such as policies, international trade, and seasonal patterns, with different sectors showing distinct characteristics and outlooks [2][3][5]. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance Index Futures - **Macro News**: The US Treasury Secretary plans to talk with China in the coming weeks to promote consultations on Sino - US trade. Northern Rare Earth is optimistic about future rare earth prices. In June, the retail sales of national passenger cars reached 2.11 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.6%. There is no exact news about silicon material storage from Tongwei Co., Ltd [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided. It is recommended to buy IH or IF index futures on dips and also consider IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 69 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data shows structural differentiation affected by tariffs. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards liquidity. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and COMEX gold declined, while COMEX silver rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.42%, and the US dollar index is 97.55 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Weak US inflation and economic data enhance the expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in July and cut it by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunity of silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper declined, and Shanghai copper closed at 80,030 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. There are uncertainties in US copper tariff policies [10]. - **Price Forecast**: Shanghai copper is expected to trade between 77,000 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and LME copper between 9,400 - 10,000 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: Aluminum prices rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.53%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,540 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly [12]. - **Outlook**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is strong, but the sustainability of the long - position sentiment is uncertain. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and consolidate, with Shanghai aluminum trading between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton and LME aluminum between 2,520 - 2,620 US dollars/ton [12]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index declined. Zinc ore supply is high, and zinc ingot inventory is accumulating. Zinc prices are under pressure [13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index declined slightly. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price of lead batteries has stabilized. Lead prices are expected to be relatively strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead may be limited [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices were weak. The contradiction in the nickel market lies in the stainless - steel demand and the cost of nickel iron. It is recommended to short nickel on rallies, with Shanghai nickel trading between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel between 14,500 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices rebounded slightly. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that domestic tin prices will oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin prices between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose slightly. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The upward space of lithium prices is limited without macro - level positive factors. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 61,900 - 65,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the domestic main contract AO2509 trading between 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton [18][19]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel main contract rose slightly. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied in the short term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract declined. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is mainly affected by aluminum prices. The price has strong resistance above [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a weak and oscillating trend. The policy of "anti - involution and capacity reduction" has an impact on the market, but the specific implementation is uncertain. Vietnam's anti - dumping policy on Chinese hot - rolled steel will suppress exports [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand, and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore rose. The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand also declined. The inventory of ports and steel mills changed slightly. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price of glass was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly. The policy expectation has a strong impact on the price, and short - selling positions should be avoided [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon closed slightly higher, and ferrosilicon closed slightly lower. The fundamentals of the two products are weak, but the market is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: Industrial silicon futures rose. The supply of industrial silicon is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, and hedging positions can be operated when there is a profit [32][33]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded. The market has priced in the small - scale storage expectation. The bullish and bearish views are different. The tire开工 rate is neutral, and the inventory is increasing [35][36][37]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, a neutral view in the short term, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [38]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all rose. There is uncertainty in geopolitical risks, and the market is in a state of tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of methanol declined. The upstream maintenance increased, and the demand decreased. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of urea rose. The short - term supply decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The price has support below and is recommended to be short - term long on dips [42]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene was stable, and the futures price declined. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly [43][44]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose slightly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to be under pressure [45][46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract declined. The supply and demand are both weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [47]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract was stable. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [48]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. In the third quarter, it is expected to de - stock. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [49][50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PE declined. Affected by the OPEC+ production increase, the cost decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PP declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in July [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price was slightly stronger. The supply is seasonally decreasing, and the second - fattening space is still available. The short - term long - position may have space, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [54]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The price of eggs mostly declined. The supply is stable, and the demand is cautious. The short - term price is expected to be stable, and the mid - term price may be affected by supply and premium [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal prices also decreased. The supply of soybeans and protein is in excess. It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and wait for new driving factors [56][57]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Malaysian palm oil exports increased, and domestic palm oil prices strengthened. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but there are also factors suppressing the upward space. The market is expected to oscillate [58][59][60]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. Brazil's sugar exports increased in June, and the domestic import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to continue to decline [61]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs". The basis between futures and spot is strengthening, and the market expects the issuance of import quotas, which is a potential negative factor. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [62].

Group 1: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - The core viewpoint indicates that strong performance in US crude oil exports and production, along with unexpected commercial crude oil inventory reductions, is expected to support gasoline and aviation fuel demand during the summer travel peak [2][8] - The report anticipates Brent crude oil prices to have strong support at $60 per barrel in Q3 2025, with potential upward price adjustments of $5 to $15 per barrel if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate [2][8] - The report highlights that domestic oil companies are diversifying their oil supply sources and reducing sensitivity to oil price fluctuations through integrated upstream and downstream operations [9] Group 2: Banking Industry - The report notes a significant increase in the proportion of bill business among listed banks, with a rise of 0.98 percentage points to 5.7% by the end of 2024, indicating a shift in credit allocation towards more stable and lower-risk sectors [10][11] - The overall asset quality of the banking sector remains stable, with a slight decrease in the non-performing loan ratio to 1.22% and a decrease in the provision coverage ratio to 238% [11] - The report suggests that the banking sector's average dividend yield of 3.86% continues to attract long-term funds, with a positive outlook for A-share listed banks and select regional banks [12] Group 3: Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Industry - The report emphasizes that Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are reshaping the global pharmaceutical landscape by achieving better innovation outcomes at lower costs, with over $1 billion in revenue from domestic innovative drugs [4][14] - The report identifies three driving factors for the long-term growth of the innovative drug industry: sustained enthusiasm for business development (BD), breakthroughs in commercialization, and ongoing supportive policies [4][14] - The report highlights a significant increase in authorized transactions in the biopharmaceutical sector, with over 100 transactions in 2024, totaling approximately $52.3 billion, marking a 25% increase [14] Group 4: Technology and Computing Industry - The report indicates that the computing industry is expected to see a dual enhancement in performance and valuation due to accelerated demand recovery, particularly in the AI sector [17] - The report highlights Oracle's collaboration with OpenAI to develop multiple data centers across the US, reflecting the ongoing competition in the global AI computing market [17] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong positions in the AI and cloud computing sectors, as well as those involved in the domestic electronic device manufacturing [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector remains weak. Most chemical products are currently bearish, with a preference for holding short positions. The "anti-involution" expectation has limited positive impact on the energy and chemical sector, and the overall outlook is still bearish [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sector - Most chemical products have a mid - term structure of either shock or bearish, a short - term structure of bearish, and the strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle. The "anti - involution" expectation has a potential positive impact on PVC, but its positive impact on the energy and chemical sector is limited [2] 3.2 Individual Products 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in August, with an accelerated increase exceeding expectations, increasing the medium - term supply surplus pressure. However, due to the low inventory during the consumption peak season and the fact that the actual seaborne shipments of OPEC+ production have not increased significantly, the short - term bearishness is not obvious. The bullish factors are concentrated in the short term, and the bearish factors are concentrated in the medium term. Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in shock, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. The rebound today did not change the pressure, and there was a large amount of position reduction at the end of the session. The short - term market is still weak, with the short - term upper pressure level at 512. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [3] 3.2.2 Styrene (EB) - Logic: High device profits increase the supply expectation of styrene. The start - up has reached a recent high, and there will be greater supply pressure with the subsequent launch of new devices. The current inventory is turning to accumulation, and the bearish pressure is gradually being realized. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an increase in positions and a decline today. Pay attention to whether it can break the support at the lower edge of the small - cycle shock range to accelerate the decline. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [7] 3.2.3 Rubber - Logic: The natural rubber inventory has been accumulating against the season for 4 consecutive weeks. The "anti - involution" expectation puts more pressure on the terminal automobile and the currently over - supplied tire industry, and has no impact on rubber supply. High supply and weak demand are still the main tone of rubber supply and demand. Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the short - term pressure level is still at 14100. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [9] 3.2.4 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The demand side of tires still maintains a weak demand expectation. The start - up of semi - steel tires is likely to decline in the future under the huge inventory. After the subsequent launch of large - scale devices, the surplus pressure of butadiene will further expand. The "anti - involution" expectation has a greater impact on the terminal automobile and the over - supplied tire industry, and its impact on synthetic rubber supply is difficult to judge at present and is unlikely to have a substantial impact. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. After a large increase in positions and a long - negative line on Monday, today is a rebound with a reduction in positions, but the decline path remains unchanged. The short - term upper pressure level is temporarily focused on 11380. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [12] 3.2.5 PX - Logic: There is weak demand in the off - season. Although the inventory has been decreasing due to some device overhauls before, the profit has recovered significantly, and the device recovery expectation is strong. After the subsequent start - up increases, the fundamentals are expected to weaken under the weak off - season demand. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the market is still weak. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 6870. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [16] 3.2.6 PTA - Logic: In the off - season, the downstream polyester demand is average, and the polyester start - up is expected to decline. The supply is expected to increase as the PX device overhauls are restored. The fundamentals are expected to weaken. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and it is still regarded as weak. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 4840. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [18] 3.2.7 PP - Logic: The PP level remains relatively high. The previously overhauled devices have gradually resumed, and there will be new capacity put into production later, resulting in greater supply pressure. The downstream start - up declines in the off - season, and the fundamentals are expected to be weak, so it is treated bearishly. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the market is still weak. The short - term upper pressure level is focused on 7140. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20] 3.2.8 Methanol - Logic: On the supply side, the domestic start - up has declined, but it is still at a high level in recent years compared to the same period. The arrivals in June remained high, and the Iranian devices in the Middle East have restarted. Although the current shipments are small, the concern about the long - term import reduction has weakened. The downstream demand is average, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The supply - demand expectation is still regarded as bearish. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline. There was an increase in positions and a decline today, and a new low was reached in the 15 - minute short - cycle. The recent market is still weak, and the short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 2430. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [23] 3.2.9 PVC - Logic: The downstream terminal demand remains weak in the real - estate downward cycle and is difficult to improve. The Indian BIS certification has been postponed to December 24, but no domestic enterprise has obtained the certification. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the supply side is low, but the start - up still maintains the same - period high. The supply - demand is weak, but the "anti - involution" expectation brings short - term positive expectations. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the upper pressure is temporarily seen at 4955. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [25] 3.2.10 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Domestic devices have resumed production, and ethane imports have recovered. The downstream polyester start - up declines in the off - season, and the bearish factors have not dissipated, but the currently low port inventory provides some positive support. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the short - term upper pressure is 4345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [27][28] 3.2.11 Plastic - Logic: The downstream demand is weak in the off - season, and there are plans to put new capacity into production, so the supply - demand expectation is weak. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the upper pressure is temporarily focused on 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [29]

Group 1 - The core issue is the decline in China-Russia trade, with a 6.6% year-on-year decrease in early 2025, particularly in the automotive and energy sectors [1] - Russia has implemented a flexible export tax policy linked to the ruble, raising the export tax on fertilizers to 10%, which has not been communicated to China, indicating a shift in their trade relationship [3] - In Q1 2025, China imported 24.31 million tons of crude oil from Russia, a 14.7% year-on-year decrease, reflecting a change in strategic attitudes rather than just procurement issues [3] Group 2 - The automotive sector is facing challenges as Russia has closed its market to Chinese electric vehicles, forcing Chinese companies to pivot to Central Asian markets like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan [5] - In April 2025, China imported 8.07 million tons of crude oil from Russia, accounting for 16.8% of total imports that month, a 12.9% year-on-year decrease, driven by both energy efficiency initiatives and Russia's export policy changes [5] - China is no longer offering concessions on coal imports from Russia, as domestic coal production is significant, and lowering tariffs could harm local coal companies [5] Group 3 - Despite visible cooperation in agriculture and technology, trade dynamics are shifting, with a 6.8% decline in China-Russia trade in Q1 2025, indicating a potential reduction in Russia's reliance on the Chinese market [7] - The changing trade relationship is characterized as a negotiation for rebalancing interests, with China needing to stabilize domestic demand and export routes while Russia aims to control inflation and stabilize the ruble through export policies [9] - The current state of affairs suggests a need for a long-term negotiation-based partnership between China and Russia, moving beyond previous informal agreements [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force and expected to be mainly bearish [3] Core View of the Report - The supply of PTA is bearish as domestic production is at a historical high, and factors like benzene price weakness and profit margins limit PX production increase. The demand is also bearish as polyester downstream load is expected to decrease, and major polyester factories in short - fiber and bottle - chip segments plan to cut production in July. The PTA is in a stockpiling cycle, with port inventory increasing by 30,000 tons this week. The PTA basis has weakened rapidly, and its processing fee has shrunk. PTA price is at a neutral - low level, and the macro - policy has a neutral impact [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Domestic PTA production is at a historical high, port inventory is decreasing, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to about $230 - 240, but benzene price weakness restricts PX production increase. The spread between PX and MX is about $90, which drives the recovery of PX load [3] - Demand: Polyester downstream load remains above 91% despite the expected reduction. Polyester factories' inventory is optimistic. Major production cuts are expected in short - fiber and bottle - chip segments in July, which will affect polyester load. As PTA price recovers, polyester's ability to absorb PTA price weakens, and weaving profit is compressed [3] - Inventory: PTA port inventory has accumulated, and it has entered a stockpiling cycle, with a 30,000 - ton increase in port inventory this week [3] - Basis: PTA basis has weakened rapidly. As PTA device increases with profit recovery and demand weakens, the market liquidity becomes looser [3] - Profit: The spread between PX and naphtha is $230, and the spread between PX and MX has shrunk. PTA processing fee remains at about 300 yuan and has contracted [3] - Valuation: PTA price is at a neutral - low level. As reforming devices gradually recover, aromatic supply increases, but gasoline profit is poor, and blending demand recovers [3] - Macro - policy: Trump plans to impose tariffs ranging from 60% - 70% and 10% - 20% on different countries starting August 1st [3][8] - Investment view: Oscillating, with no obvious driving force and expected to be mainly bearish [3] - Trading strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see [3] 2. Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - Policy: Trump plans to impose tariffs; the "Big and Beautiful Act" supports oil, gas, and coal production and restricts wind and solar energy; OPEC + is discussing an 81,100 - barrel - per - day production increase in August [8] - Gasoline: There are still concerns about the gasoline peak season. EIA data shows that the total inventory is 150,000 barrels, approaching 230 million barrels. Refinery operating rate has exceeded 94%, increasing gasoline production from 9 million barrels to 9.7 million barrels. North American refinery load is rising, and gasoline cracking profit shows a seasonal upward trend [23] 3. Aromatic Fundamentals Overview - MX: North American reforming device profit margin remains unchanged. The demand for MX in Asia is strong due to PX demand. Currently, tariffs hinder MX cross - regional arbitrage, but it is still marginally feasible. Asian spot MX supply is sufficient, and domestic mainstream reforming and aromatic extraction device productivity is decreasing [37][50][57] - PX: It is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to futures [49][56] - PTA: Due to large domestic production capacity, the PTA processing interval has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new devices and capacity, the option - based income - enhancement plan is more widely used [49][56] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip: They are in the capacity launch cycle. Overseas demand is an important variable, and the "Belt and Road" initiative provides new export opportunities [49][56] 4. Polyester Fundamentals Overview - Ethylene glycol: Coal - price decline expands coal - based ethylene glycol profit. There will be a large amount of ethylene glycol arriving at ports later. Polyester production and sales are weakening, and it is entering the maintenance cycle [81] - Gasoline: Gasoline profit is recovering, and the load of major refineries is increasing [82] - Polyester: Downstream demand is weakening, and bottle - chip and short - fiber are in the maintenance period. Raw material prices are rising, and terminal demand is weakening [90][97]

昨日国际油价低开高走，布伦特09合约涨1.59%。我们认为0PEC+的快速增产政策对三季度的油价 冲击暂时有限，一方面考虑到部分产油国的实际产量已远高于目标产量且同步存在减产补偿计划的 约束，OPEC+实际月度增产量均小于产量目标的上调幅度；另一方面，三季度为汽油、航煤需求的 季节性旺季，本轮增产在夏季尚可得到需求端较好的承接。而度过三季度旺季之后，若美国的对等 关税政策依然延续，OPEC+产量的回归将对基本面产生更直接的利空压力，在中东地缘局势保持可 控的情景下油价重心面临进一步下移。豁免期延续至8月1日的美国对等关税最终博弈结果或不高于4 月初水平，原油短期仍持三季度底部抬升、震荡偏强的判断。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属偏弱震荡。上周美国非农数据超预期支持美联储继续保持观望，市场放弃对7月降息押 注。市场焦点转向即将到期的美国关税政策变动,特朗普威胁对部分国家加征关税。贵金属延续震 荡等待政策落地对市场情绪的影响。 (铜) 隔夜铜价走低，美盘铜日内跌幅大，特朗普向日韩及东盟国家放出一系列对等关税消息，并威胁金 砖国家关税税率。周内继续关注2507合约减仓速度，国内消费谈季明显，SMM社库增加1.1万吨至 14 ...