农产品日报 | 2025-12-26 苹果优果价格坚挺，红枣旺季消费偏弱 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9208元/吨，较前一日变动+17元/吨，幅度+0.18%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1008，较前一日变动-17；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-808，较前一日变动-17。 近期市场资讯，库内晚富士主流行情稳定，成交氛围仍显一般。洛川部分产区果农货价格略有松动，目前部分产 区果农货询价增多，库内包装发运略有增加，但主流仍以客商发自存货源为主。西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果 农两级货源为主，下捡、高次少量走货，成交有限；客商少量包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区出库放缓，少量 75#货源出库为主，维纳斯、奶油果按需出库，其余货源交易不多。栖霞80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/ 斤，65#、70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库价格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/ 斤。 ...

高市早苗周四表示，2026年4月起的财年预算总额约为122.3万亿日元（约合7860亿美元）。这比本财年 预算的115.2万亿日元约增加6.3%，将成为日本史上规模最大的"初始预算"。 为筹措相关支出，政府计划通过新发行国债筹集约29.6万亿日元。高市早苗称，预算对债务发行的依赖 度将降至24.2%，低于本财年的24.9%。 "我认为这份预算在强化经济与确保财政可持续性之间取得了平衡。"高市早苗在与执政党及政府成员会 议结束时表示。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银再度大幅走高，沪银昨日夜盘涨超18000元/千克，创历史新高，沪银溢价继续扩大至1500元/克， 国内情绪异常高涨，异常拉升仍有可能。沪银主力合约参考运行区间17150-19000。沪银主力合约短期 支撑位于1700元/千克附近，上方阻力看向1900元/千克附近。 今日周五(12月26日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于18224一线上方，今日开盘于17397元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报18449元/千克，上涨7.36%，最高触及18604元/千克，最低下探17339元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情 ...

1. Report's Core View - On December 25, 2025, different sectors in the market showed various liquidity performances. The stock index, basic metal, precious metal, and agricultural product sectors had increased trading volumes compared with the previous trading days, while the treasury bond, energy - chemical, and black building material sectors had decreased trading volumes [1][2]. 2. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Stock Index Plate - Trading volume was 560.484 billion yuan, a +10.45% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 1376.631 billion yuan, with a +4.67% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 40.59% [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Plate - Trading volume was 294.915 billion yuan, a -34.30% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 818.284 billion yuan, with a +1.10% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 35.57% [1]. 2.3 Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal) Plate - Trading volume was 820.815 billion yuan, a +34.56% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 727.873 billion yuan, with a +1.41% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 116.61% [1]. 2.4 Energy - Chemical Plate - Trading volume was 445.584 billion yuan, a -11.40% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 446.265 billion yuan, with a +0.10% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 91.56% [1]. 2.5 Agricultural Product Plate - Trading volume was 237.094 billion yuan, a +2.38% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 557.817 billion yuan, with a -2.23% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 40.83% [1]. 2.6 Black Building Material Plate - Trading volume was 154.490 billion yuan, a -25.74% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 311.853 billion yuan, with a -1.85% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 46.74% [2].

FICC日报 | 2025-12-26 离岸人民币升破7.0大关，警惕贵金属价格波动风险 市场分析 政策预期回摆。12月8日中共中央政治局会议召开：强调"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"， 延续此前措辞。并强调"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，逆周期和跨周期并提或意味着在总量维持的前提下，明 年政策边际增量更需要等待稳增长节点。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行 动，深入整治"内卷式"竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考 量。后续继续提振消费，以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发生变化，未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政策方 向。在此基础上，多部委同步响应落实：央行四季度例会指出，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨 周期调节力度；发改委聚焦出台消费提振实招新招、整治内卷并培育新动能；财政部则提出用好用足政府债券资 金、发行超长期特别国债，着力推动投资止跌回稳。美国结束上届政府针对中国芯片贸易调查，决定至少在18个 月内不对中国芯片加征额外关税。数据方面，中国11月外贸增速大幅回升，以美元计价出口同比转增5.9%，进口 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-12-26 环保预警再现，上下游生产或减量 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-25，尿素主力收盘1740元/吨（+5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1710 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1730元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1720元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤820元/吨（+0），山东基差：-10 元/吨（-5）；河南基差：-30元/吨（-5）；江苏基差：-20元/吨（-5）；尿素生产利润151元/吨（+0），出口利润821元/ 吨（-13）。 供应端：截至2025-12-25，企业产能利用率78.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为106.89 万吨（-11.08），港口样 本库存量为17.70 万吨（+3.90）。 需求端：截至2025-12-25，复合肥产能利用率37.75%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.07%（-0.48%）；尿素企 近期尿素现货受下游开工小幅恢复及市场宏观氛围影响，成交好转，主流生产企业待发增加，价格上涨新单成交 放缓。但河北、河南环保预警再现，尿素企业及下游工业开工或继续受抑制。供应端四季度气头检修12月开始， 环保预警再现，供应 ...

金融期权 2025-12-26 金融期权策略早报 | | 理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李立勤 李仁君 | 高级投研经 产业服务岗 | 从业资格号：F3074095 从业资格号： F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 电话：0755-23375255 | 邮箱： lilq@wkqh.cn 邮箱： lirj@wkqh.cn | 金融期权策略早报概要： （1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股、中小盘股和创业板股表现为高位震荡上行的市场行情。 （2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率下降至历史均值偏下水平。 （3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建偏多头的卖方策略，认购期权牛市价差组合策略；对于股 指期权来说，适合构建偏多头的卖方策略、认购期权牛市价差组合策略和期权合成期货多头与期货空头做套利策略 。 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2) Core Viewpoints - The macro environment has frequent catalysts, and precious metals continue to show strong performance. With the increase in market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may rise, and the price of gold is expected to be in a volatile and slightly strong pattern. Silver's price is also expected to remain strong due to spot shortages, but the risk of historical high prices should be watched out for [1][8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the "7" integer mark during intraday trading for the first time in 15 months, reaching a maximum of 6.9985. The onshore RMB against the US dollar approached the "7" mark, reaching a maximum of 7.0053. Israel's high - level officials signaled a possible military conflict with Iran again. The Bank of Japan's governor said that it is steadily approaching the 2% inflation target and may raise interest rates if the economic outlook is in line with expectations [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On December 25, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,013.94 yuan/gram, closed at 1,008.76 yuan/gram, a change of - 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it closed at 1,019.60 yuan/gram, up 1.07% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 17,630.00 yuan/kg, closed at 17,397.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 1.20% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,313,979 lots, and the open interest was 304,054 lots. In the night session, it closed at 18,131 yuan/kg, up 4.22% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 25, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.136%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.63%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On December 25, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long position decreased by 4,521 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position decreased by 92 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 307,456 lots, a change of - 37.41% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2602 contract, the long position decreased by 15,678 lots, and the short position decreased by 14,342 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 3,355,499 lots, a change of 1.64% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,068.27 tons, an increase of 3.71 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,447 tons, a decrease of 56 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 25, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 0.74 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 615.93 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 57.98, a change of 0.63% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 64.27, a change of 0.96% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On December 25, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 28,920 kg, a change of - 48.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 502,128 kg, a change of - 50.32% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 31,890 kg [7].

国债期货日报 | 2025-12-26 综合来看：受股市行情带动，政治局会议释放宽货币信号，LPR保持不变，同时美联储降息预期延续、全球贸易不 确定性上升增加了外资流入的不确定性。整体看，债市在稳增长与宽松预期间震荡运行，短期关注月底政策信号。 策略 单边：回购利率回落，国债期货价格震荡。 套利：关注2603基差回落。 套保：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保。 风险 流动性快速紧缩风险 股债翘翘板下，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple factors lead to early capital allocation, and the gold price has medium - to - long - term upward potential. In the context of continuous upward revisions of precious metal price forecasts by global mainstream institutions, some investors choose to pre - allocate precious metals, reflected in the continuous increase in ETF holdings and rising derivative positions. Without clear negative factors, the short - term market will remain in a relatively strong oscillation. Unilateral long positions should follow the idea of buying on dips [1]. - In the short term, as the COMEX silver approaches the last trading day, the physical delivery demand decreases, weakening its driving force on the market. Coupled with the increase in domestic inventories, it may ease the bullish sentiment. During the sharp rise of silver, attention should be paid to changes in the number of open interest contracts and warehouse receipt inventories, as well as the implementation of regulatory risk - control measures to prevent the risk of speculative long positions taking profits at high levels. However, high volatility continues to provide upward momentum to the price. The strategy suggests continuing to hold long positions, paying attention to the restoration of the domestic premium, and reducing positions or locking positions on rallies before the Spring Festival [1]. - Platinum and palladium are strong in terms of macro and supply - demand fundamentals, and their prices are still undervalued compared to gold. Capital promotes value re - evaluation, and they are expected to continue to oscillate upward in the medium to long term. In the short term, in the domestic market, since the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium futures are in the early stage of listing, the overall position liquidity needs to be improved, and the domestic market shows a premium compared to the overseas market. With strengthened regulatory risk - control measures, platinum and palladium still face short - term correction risks. Palladium may continue to correct under weak fundamentals, while platinum is relatively strong. One can buy the platinum - palladium ratio on dips [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1008.76 yuan/gram on December 25, down 5.92 yuan or 0.58% from the previous day [1]. - AG2602 contract closed at 17397 yuan/ten grams on December 25, down 212 yuan or 1.20% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 686.05 yuan/gram on December 25, up 29.30 yuan or 4.46% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 529.05 yuan/gram on December 25, down 49.40 yuan or 8.54% from the previous day [1]. Overseas Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold's main contract closed at 4505.40 on December 24, down 9.60 or 0.21% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver's main contract closed at 71.88 on December 24, up 0.27 or 0.37% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum's main contract closed at 2272.90 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 47.20 or - 2.03% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium's main contract closed at 1821.00 on December 24, down 143.00 or 7.28% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4479.39 on December 25, down 5.49 or 0.12% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 71.81 on December 25, up 0.40 or 0.56% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium remained unchanged at 2208.00 on December 25 compared to the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium remained unchanged at 1837.00 on December 25 compared to the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold TD was at 1003.01 yuan/gram on December 25, down 4.21 yuan or - 0.42% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver TD was at 17414 yuan/kilogram on December 25, down 300 yuan or - 1.69% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 591 yuan/gram on December 25, down 16 yuan or - 2.59% from the previous day [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold's main contract was - 5.75, up 1.71 from the previous day, with a one - year historical quantile of 6.80% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver's main contract was 17, down 88 from the previous day, with a one - year historical quantile of 95.90% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 26.01, up 4.11 from the previous day, with a one - year historical quantile of 30.20% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.06, up 0.14 from the previous day, with a one - year historical quantile of 70.10% [1]. Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold to silver was 62.68, down 0.37 or - 0.58% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold to silver was 57.98, up 0.36 or 0.63% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX palladium to palladium was 1.25, up 0.07 or 5.66% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum to palladium was 1.30, up 0.16 or 14.21% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15%, down 0.03 or - 0.7% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, down 0.01 or - 0.3% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.91%, down 0.03 or - 1.5% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 97.91, down 0.05 or - 0.05% from the previous day [1]. - The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 7.0010, down 0.0066 or - 0.09% from the previous day [1]. Inventories and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 93,711 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 852,417 kilograms, down 29,532 kilograms or - 3.35% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36,159,361 ounces, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 451,352,686 ounces, up 472,620 ounces or 0.10% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19,361,515 ounces, up 39,612 ounces or 0.21% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 126,355,549 ounces, down 858,733 ounces or - 0.68% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1,068 tons, up 3.71 tons or 0.35% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16,447 tons, down 56.40 tons or - 0.34% from the previous day [1].

12月26日，国际现货金、银价格再创历史新高。 自12月25日夜盘时段起，贵金属价格再度强势走高，并一直延续到12月26日亚洲时段开盘。现货黄金（伦敦金现）一度触及每盎司4531.284美元 的创纪录高位。现货白银（伦敦银现）连续突破每盎司73美元、74美元和75美元关口，最高触及75.142美元/盎司。 截至发稿，现货黄金冲高回落至每盎司4502.44美元，涨0.51%；现货白银最新价格为每盎司74.584美元，涨3.86%。 | 黄金 広 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 伦敦金现 | SHFE黄金 | | 1014.3247 | 4502.440 | 1016.70 | | +5.1928 | +23.050 | +7.94 +0.79% | | COMEX黄金 | 上海等 | SGE黄金T+D | | 4534.1 | 1010.21 | 1009.06 | | +31.3 +0.70% | +7.38 | +6.55 +0.65% | | 自銀 | | | | 伦敦银(人民币/千 16802.5318 | 伦敦银现 | SHFE自银 | | | 74. ...