Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 6.46%报 5411.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 10.06%报 116.62 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约上涨 3.36%报 1196.8 元/克，沪银主力合约上涨 1.46%报 28885 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 28 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 2.58 吨， | | | | | 当前持仓量为 1089.96 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 211.42 吨，当前持仓量为 15636.12 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 13.5%，维持利 | | | | | 率不变的概率为 86.5%。美联储到 4 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 24.1%，维持利 | | ...

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 海通空头加仓近 4000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 海通多头加仓超 2000 手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓保持平稳 | 华泰空头加仓 1000 手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 中信空头减仓超 4000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 7,628.0 1,717.0 -5,924.0 -11,585.0 15,622.0 3,905.0 -904.0 -15,637.0 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 IF IH IC ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 28, 2026 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 4151.24, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to 14342.89, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.57% to 3323.56. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2992.6 billion yuan, an increase of 70.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: It closed at 4717.99, up 12.30 [2]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Energy and Chemical Futures - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1686.5, down 2.0 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index closed at 1142.6 yuan, up 6.1 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillated upward. The price of Brazilian sugar was affected by dry weather, and the spot price limited its upside. At night, it continued to rise due to short - covering [4]. - Rubber: Affected by the expected decrease in spot supply and rising crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher. At night, it oscillated and closed slightly higher due to technical factors [4]. - Palm Oil: The futures contract P2605 closed at 9270, up 0.35%. From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month [6]. - Asphalt: The 2603 contract closed at 3410 yuan, up 3.96%. Refinery supply was low, inventory was slightly accumulated, and prices oscillated due to cost support [8]. 2.2 Agricultural Futures - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.68% to 1074.75 cents per bushel. The domestic M2505 contract rose 0.58% to 2782 yuan/ton. Brazilian harvest pressure and US dollar weakness co - existed. Domestic inventory decreased, and post - holiday supply was expected to be loose [6]. - Live Hogs: The LH2603 contract closed at 11270 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. Supply pressure increased, and demand support was limited [6]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14875 yuan/ton at night, and inventory increased by 4 lots [6]. 2.3 Metal Futures - Shanghai Copper: The 2603 contract closed at 103060 yuan/ton. It first declined and then rebounded. Volume and open interest decreased. Inventory accumulated, and demand was weak [6]. - Iron Ore: The 2605 contract closed at 783 yuan, down 0.7%. Port inventory increased, and prices oscillated due to pre - holiday restocking demand [8]. - Steel: The rb2605 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3280 yuan/ton. Demand was weak, costs had some support, and prices were expected to adjust narrowly [8]. - Alumina: The ao2605 contract closed at 2811 yuan/ton. The oversupply situation was hard to change in the short term, and prices were expected to oscillate [8]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The al2603 contract closed at 25640 yuan/ton. Supply was stable, inventory increased slightly, and demand pressure increased [8]. 2.4 Log Futures - Logs: The 2603 contract closed at 775.5. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu was stable. Attention should be paid to spot support [6][8]. 3. Market Analysis - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke production was at a low level due to losses, and demand was rigid. Coking coal supply was loose both domestically and abroad, and demand was weak [4]. - Soybean Meal: International market was affected by Brazilian harvest and US dollar. Domestic market had pre - holiday demand and post - holiday supply concerns [6]. - Live Hogs: Supply pressure was high in the medium term, and demand increase during the Spring Festival was limited [6]. - Iron Ore: Port inventory was rising, and prices were oscillating due to pre - holiday restocking [8]. - Steel: Weak demand and high costs led to narrow price adjustments [8]. - Alumina: Oversupply and cost decline limited price increases [8]. - Shanghai Aluminum: Supply was stable, and demand pressure was gradually emerging [8].

2026年01月29日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周三贵金属夜盘走强，伦敦金逼近 5500 美元/盎司，伦敦银逼近 120 美元/盎司。 基本面：美联储如期暂停降息，暗示不急行动，但美联储主席人选沃勒支持再降 25 基点；鲍威尔表示加息并 非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设，关税通胀预计今年年中消退；贝森特称美国一贯奉行强美元政策，"绝对 不会"干预汇市支撑日元；日本周三拍卖的 40 年期国债投标倍数达到 2.76 倍，创下自去年 3 月以来的最高 水平，拍卖结果公布后 40 年期国债收益率下跌 2 个基点至 3.915%。国内黄金 ETF 大幅流入 5 吨，COMEX 黄金库存为 1115.8 吨，-2 吨；上期所黄金库存为 103.0 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1086.5 吨， 维持不变；COMEX 白银库存为 12803 吨，-107.7 吨；上期所白银库存为 508 吨，-35.9 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15636 吨，-211 吨；金交所白银上周库存 504.5 吨，-1 吨；伦敦 12 月末白银库 ...

王美丹认为，当前周度库存延续去化状态，且下游库存开始累积，一定程度上反映出下游偏积极的备货 态度，后续需重点跟踪下游对高价货源的整体接受度。 "当前全行业库存水平偏低，结构上表现为锂盐厂与下游产业库存较低，期现商库存较高。"余烁解释 称，在需求强劲的背景下，碳酸锂价格回调往往会触发补库需求，从而对现货价格形成支撑。不过，受 系统性风险与宏观面影响，当前市场情绪明显降温，碳酸锂价格上行乏力，在新的驱动因素出现之前， 预计价格将高位震荡。 值得注意的是，针对部分品种价格近期波动较大的情况，1月26日广期所发布风险提示称，期货公司应 切实履行风险管理职责，强化客户交易行为合规监管和风险防范，提醒投资者依规、谨慎、理性参与交 易，确保市场平稳运行。 同时，广期所将坚持严监严管主基调，持续强化市场监管，严肃查处各类违规行为，加强实际控制关系 账户调查、认定，发挥五位一体监管协作合力，依法严厉打击市场操纵行为，维护市场秩序。 近期，碳酸锂期货价格冲高回落。1月28日，碳酸锂期货主力合约收报166280元/吨，下跌3.9%。 业内人士认为，碳酸锂期货价格冲高回落，是此前各类利多消息逐步消化，市场回归基本面交易的表 现。 " ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Futures Index Spread - The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and changes compared to the previous day of various futures index spreads, including price spreads and cross - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM, as well as cross - variety ratios [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread - It shows the latest values, changes compared to the previous trading day, and historical quantiles of basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) [2]. 2.3 Precious Metals Spot and Futures - The market for precious metals is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. For gold, it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices and use call options instead of long positions. For silver, although there are factors suppressing and supporting the price, it is suggested to maintain a light - position long - buying strategy on dips. For platinum and palladium, the price center continues to rise, but the upward space may be limited, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [3]. 2.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot and Futures - The settlement price indices of container shipping routes have declined, while the futures prices of container shipping contracts have generally increased. The supply of container shipping capacity has slightly increased, and some foreign trade - related indicators and overseas economic indicators have shown certain changes [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Index Spread - **Price Spreads**: The latest values of IF, IH, IC, and IM price spreads are 14.81, 94.30, 20.84, and - 21.99 respectively, with high historical quantiles [1]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: The cross - period spreads of different contracts show various changes and historical quantiles, such as the cross - period spread between the next month and the current month of IF being 5.00, with a historical quantile of 98.30% [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: The cross - variety ratios of different futures varieties also have corresponding latest values, changes, and historical quantiles, like the IC/IF ratio being 0.0101, with a historical quantile of 99.10% [1]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: The basis of TS, TF, T, and TL on January 28, 2026, are 1.3579, 1.1624, 1.0471, and 0.8136 respectively, with different historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: The cross - period spreads of different contracts of TF, T, and TL show various values and changes, for example, the cross - period spread between the current quarter and the next quarter of TF is - 0.0450, with a historical quantile of 21.40% [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The cross - variety spreads between different treasury bond futures, such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., also have corresponding values and changes [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot and Futures - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of AU2604, AG2604, PT2606, and PD2606 contracts are 1186.20, 29219, 694.80, and 504.00 respectively, with different price changes and price change rates [3]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of COMEX gold, COMEX silver, NYMEX platinum, and NYMEX palladium on January 28, 2026, are 5411.00, 116.62, 2705.10, and 2095.50 respectively, with corresponding price changes and price change rates [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of London gold, London silver, etc., also have price changes and price change rates, for example, the spot price of London gold on January 28, 2026, is 5413.81, with a price change of 233.58 and a price change rate of 4.51% [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of different precious metals shows different values and historical quantiles, such as the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract being - 2.16, with a historical quantile of 46.10% [3]. - **Ratios**: The ratios of different precious metals, such as COMEX gold/silver, have corresponding values and changes [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield, etc., have different values and changes [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The inventories and positions of different precious metals, such as the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver, have corresponding changes [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot and Futures - **Container Shipping Indices**: The settlement price indices of SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US West route) on January 26, 2026, are 1859.31 and 1294.32 respectively, with price decreases and price change rates of - 4.86% and - 0.84% respectively [4]. - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rates**: The SCFI comprehensive index and the freight rates of different routes have declined, for example, the SCFI comprehensive index on January 23, 2026, is 1457.86, with a price decrease of - 116.3 and a price change rate of - 7.39% [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The futures prices of different container shipping contracts have generally increased, and the basis of the main contract has decreased, for example, the price of EC2604 (main contract) on January 28, 2026, is 1229.0, with a price increase of 35.1 and a price change rate of 2.94%, and the basis of the main contract is 630.3, with a price decrease of - 35.1 and a price change rate of - 5.27% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply has slightly increased, and some foreign trade - related indicators and overseas economic indicators have shown certain changes, such as the port on - time rate in Shanghai increasing by 4.53% [4].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 品种 | | --- | | 多（空） 推荐理由 | | 板块 | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周三螺纹热卷收跌。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1、生态环境部："十四五"期间累计完成 9.4 亿吨粗钢产能、1.7 亿千瓦煤电机组 | | | | | 超低排放改造。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 2、国家能源局：截至 2025 年底全国累计发电装机容量 38.9 亿千瓦，同比增 16.1%。 3、据产业在线最新发布的三大白电排产报告显示，2026 年 2 月空冰洗排产合计总 | | | | | 量共计 2379 万台，较去年同期生产实绩下降 22.1%。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 周三钢材价格持平。随着 ...

贵金属日报 2026-01-29 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 3.36 %，报 1196.80 元/克，沪银涨 1.46 %，报 28885.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 5411.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 116.62 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.26%，美元指数报 96.34 ； 昨日所公布的美联储议息会议货币政策表态偏谨慎，但沃勒的反对票再度冲击联储独立性，驱 动金银价格表现极为强势。 本次联储议息会议决定维持利率在 3.50%-3.75% 区间不变，未进行降息，货币政策表态谨慎， 符合市场预期。但投票结果中沃勒投下反对票支持降息 25bps 超市场预期鸽派，贝森特表明 将在一周左右公布新任联储主席提名，沃勒此举渴望得到特朗普的关注，会议后 Kalshi 显示 市场对沃勒被提名新任联储主席的概率预测由 8% 上升至 15%，这再度冲击美联储货币政策独 立性，叠加此前特朗普关于美元汇率的"悠悠球"言论和贝 ...

晨会纪要 中原期货研究咨询部 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/1/29 | 2026/1/28 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,130.50 | 1,134.50 | -4.0 | -0.353 | | | 焦炭 | 1,692.50 | 1,684.00 | 8.50 | 0.505 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,320.00 | 16,360.00 | -40.0 | -0.244 | | | 20号胶 | 13,190.00 | 13,190.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 塑料 | 6,981.00 | 6,967.00 | 14.0 | 0.201 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,809.00 | 6,778.00 | 31.0 | 0.457 | | | (PTA) | 5,298.00 | 5,370.00 | -72.0 | -1.341 | | | PVC | 4,894.00 | 4,913.00 ...

期货市场交易指引 交易咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 曹雪梅：Z0015756 电话：027-65777102 邮箱：caoxm2@cjsc.com.cn 全球主要市场表现 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 4,151.24 | 0.27% | | 深圳成指 | 14,342.89 | 0.09% | | 沪深 300 | 4,717.99 | 0.26% | | 上证 50 | 3,060.56 | 0.27% | | 中证 500 | 8,601.16 | 0.61% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 53,358.71 | 0.05% | | 道琼指数 | 49,015.60 | 0.02% | | 标普 500 | 6,978.03 | -0.01% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,857.45 | 0.17% | | 美元指数 | 96.3455 | 0.61% | | 人民币 | 6.9453 | -0.18% | | 纽约黄金 | 5,447.80 | 5.18% | | ...