Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Oil prices are currently experiencing a tug-of-war between supply and demand, with a short-term rebound seen as a temporary relief rather than a reversal [3] - The International Energy Agency has indicated a supply surplus for oil next year, while U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6.4 million barrels, the largest rise since July [3] - The market is reacting to increased sanctions on Russian oil companies and a decline in refined oil inventories, suggesting that demand remains resilient [3] Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices have stabilized after four consecutive days of increases, driven by the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which had previously hindered the release of key economic data [3] - Copper is viewed as an "industrial barometer," closely tied to infrastructure and manufacturing, with domestic growth initiatives supporting demand [3] Group 3: Gold Market Trends - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily attributed to changing expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a December rate cut now at 50% [4] - Gold's appeal diminishes when interest rates do not decrease or rise, but its long-term value is still linked to inflation and global risk sentiment [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Companies in the energy sector should focus on those with reasonable valuations and stable cash flows, particularly in oil and gas extraction and refining [5] - For copper-related investments, attention should be given to firms tied to domestic infrastructure and new energy projects, as demand is expected to remain strong [5] - In the gold sector, a wait-and-see approach is recommended until interest rate expectations become clearer or global risk sentiment increases [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market has reached a ten-year high, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4029.50 points, up 0.73%, and significant trading volume returning to the 2 trillion yuan level [1] - Northbound capital continues to show a net inflow, which is expected to support heavyweight sectors, indicating strong market liquidity [2][7] - The current market structure of "weak adjustment + high turnover" differs from traditional sharp declines, as funds rotate between sectors, providing a stable foundation for a gradual market uptrend [3] Group 2 - Market hotspots are diversifying, with sectors like energy storage and non-ferrous metals showing strength, while the camping economy concept has sparked a surge in small-cap growth stocks [5] - Some heavyweight sectors, such as securities, liquor, banking, and real estate, are currently in a low position and may become key drivers for the index if capital flows back into them [6][11] - On Friday, it is anticipated that the market will experience a combination of "heavyweight support + thematic rotation," with a focus on the capital flow in sectors like securities, liquor, banking, and real estate [11][13] Group 3 - The securities sector has not yet started but has reached a new high, and concentrated capital could accelerate the index towards 4500 points [8] - The liquor sector has undergone sufficient adjustment, and a return of capital could create a demonstration effect within the consumer sector [9] - The banking sector is seeing increased attention due to rising interest rate policy expectations, while the real estate sector has strong policy catalyst expectations that could lead to sudden opportunities [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-shares is driven not only by domestic funds but also by significant cross-market interactions, particularly influenced by the A50 index futures and the Hang Seng Index, alongside global macroeconomic expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 13, A-share indices closed strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 4029.50 points, up 0.73%, marking a ten-year high; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78% to 13476.52 points; and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.55% to 3201.75 points [1]. - Over 3900 stocks in the market experienced gains, indicating a broad-based rally [1]. Group 2: Cross-Market Effects - The A50 index futures showed a strong upward trend, particularly with significant contributions from major stocks like CATL, which surged 7.51%, driving the ChiNext and Shenzhen indices higher [1]. - The Hang Seng Index also turned positive in sync with the A-share market's late rally, suggesting a short-term linkage between domestic and foreign capital through derivative markets [1][2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 59.4%, reflecting increasing market expectations for monetary easing [2]. - A potential rate cut could enhance dollar liquidity and increase the attractiveness of global risk assets, leading to greater foreign investment in Chinese equities [2]. Group 4: Domestic Policy Signals - Domestic authorities have been signaling a commitment to maintaining market stability and investor confidence, with a focus on appropriate liquidity management [4]. - This suggests that the lower boundary of the A-share market has shifted from 3980 points to around 4000 points, providing a stronger short-term support level [5]. Group 5: Short-term and Mid-term Trends - Short-term technical indicators suggest that the Shanghai Composite Index may experience a narrow range of fluctuations or slight pullbacks, maintaining a consolidation pattern above 4000 points [6]. - In the mid-term, if the Fed's rate cut occurs alongside continued domestic easing policies, A-shares are expected to maintain high-level fluctuations and gradually increase, particularly benefiting sectors aligned with the A-share market [7]. Group 6: Conclusion - The recent high in A-shares reflects both internal fund dynamics and external market resonance, particularly driven by the A50 index futures, with supportive factors from Fed rate cut expectations and domestic stabilization policies [8].

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the latest net asset values of various funds, highlighting the top-performing and bottom-performing funds in terms of net value growth [2][3][5]. Fund Performance Summary - The top 10 funds with the highest net value growth include: 1. 德邦乐享生活混合A with a net value of 1.9413 and a growth of 10.98% 2. 德邦乐享生活混合C with a net value of 1.9084 and a growth of 10.97% 3. 泰信现代服务业混合 with a net value of 2.2020 and a growth of 8.31% 4. 东方阿尔法瑞享混合发起C with a net value of 1.0481 and a growth of 8.06% 5. 东方阿尔法瑞享混合发起A with a net value of 1.0482 and a growth of 8.06% 6. 浙商汇金先进制造混合 with a net value of 1.1248 and a growth of 7.88% 7. 先锋聚元灵活配置混合C with a net value of 1.4272 and a growth of 7.73% 8. 先锋聚元灵活配置混合A with a net value of 1.4649 and a growth of 7.73% 9. 先锋聚优C with a net value of 1.1950 and a growth of 7.62% 10. 先锋聚优A with a net value of 1.1742 and a growth of 7.62% [2]. - The bottom 10 funds with the lowest net value growth include: 1. 南方原油(QDII-FOF)C with a net value of 1.1037 and a decline of 2.14% 2. 南方原油(QDII-FOF-LOF) with a net value of 1.1404 and a decline of 2.14% 3. 嘉实原油(QDII-LOF) with a net value of 1.3445 and a decline of 1.78% 4. 华宝油气 with a net value of 0.7359 and a decline of 1.54% 5. 华宝油气C with a net value of 0.7176 and a decline of 1.54% 6. 易方达原油A类人民币 with a net value of 1.1056 and a decline of 1.53% 7. 广发道琼斯石油指数人民币A with a net value of 2.2919 and a decline of 1.31% 8. 广发道琼斯石油指数人民币C with a net value of 2.2576 and a decline of 1.31% 9. 广发道琼斯石油指数(QDII-LOF)人民币E with a net value of 2.2660 and a decline of 1.31% 10. 汇添富积极回报一年持有混合(FOF)C with a net value of 1.0850 and a decline of 1.14% [3]. Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a rebound with a trading volume of 2.06 trillion, indicating a positive market sentiment with a ratio of advancing to declining stocks at 3953:1330 [5]. - Leading sectors included electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals, all showing gains exceeding 3%, while telecommunications and power sectors lagged [5]. Fund Strategy Analysis - The fund with the fastest net value growth, 德邦乐享生活混合A, has a concentrated holding of 60.72% in its top ten stocks, indicating a strategic shift towards lithium mining and related sectors [6]. - Conversely, the 南方原油(QDII-FOF)C fund, which tracks overseas crude oil prices, has underperformed due to a significant drop in oil prices, reflecting its focus on energy commodities [7].

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes a bullish stance with a focus on support levels in various markets, suggesting that investors should look for buying opportunities as long as key support levels hold [5][9][19]. - In the A-share market, the report identifies the ChiNext index as leading the gains, with support levels at 3070 points for ChiNext and 3920 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [5][19]. - The report anticipates a continued downtrend in the bond market, particularly for 30-year government bonds, with a target near the low point from September 30, 2024 [4][15]. Group 2: Market Performance and Sector Analysis - The report notes improved market sentiment, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, batteries, and chemicals leading the gains, while technology stocks are expected to show divergence based on earnings support [5][19]. - The report highlights that the technology sector's absorption rate has fallen below 25%, indicating a release of crowded positions, but suggests that time is still insufficient for a full recovery [19][23]. - The energy metals and battery sectors are noted as strong performers, while banks and oil & gas development sectors are lagging [19]. Group 3: U.S. Market Insights - The report indicates that the end of the U.S. government shutdown has positively impacted U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 index showing support at approximately 6630 points [6][25]. - The potential implementation of a $2000 subsidy for low-income individuals by the Trump administration is highlighted as a factor that could significantly stimulate the U.S. economy, although its feasibility remains uncertain [6][25]. Group 4: Currency and Commodity Markets - The report states that the onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.0964, reflecting a decline of 156 basis points, with expectations of a weaker dollar index in the short term [26]. - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.34%, with most sectors rising, except for a significant drop in the oil sector, suggesting a cautious approach to commodity investments [32].

Market Performance - The A-share market indices collectively strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.73%, Shenzhen Component Index by 1.78%, and ChiNext Index by 2.55% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20,420 billion yuan, an increase of 969 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The number of rising stocks was 3,953, while 1,338 stocks declined, with a median increase of 0.61% for the rising stocks [1] Industry Highlights - The surge in the ChiNext Index was primarily driven by the lithium battery industry chain, forming a small double bottom pattern [1][2] - If the ChiNext Index breaks through the high point of 3,240 on November 7, the reliability of the small double bottom will be further strengthened [2] - The lithium and energy storage sectors were the biggest market hotspots, with 56 stocks in these sectors hitting the daily limit or rising over 10%, accounting for nearly half of the total [2] Price Movements and Company News - Prices of upstream products, such as electrolyte additives, have increased, with VC (Vinylene Carbonate) averaging 110,000 yuan per ton, up by 44,500 yuan [3] - Strategic cooperation agreements between companies like Haibo Shichuang and CATL are expected to boost demand, with a projected cumulative purchase of 200 GWh of electricity from 2026 to 2028 [3] - The National Energy Administration's recent guidelines to promote the integration of new energy sources are expected to further support the industry [3] Sector Analysis - The electric equipment sector index rose by 4.04%, leading the industry sector gains, driven by the increasing scale of new energy installations [4] - The non-ferrous and chemical sectors ranked second and third in industry gains, benefiting from the green energy transition and the demand for materials in electric vehicles and solar panels [5] - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous and chemical sectors will continue to perform well, with lithium prices stabilizing and copper being a key investment direction for 2026 [6] Financial Performance - In the first ten months, new social financing reached 30.9 trillion yuan, with new loans amounting to 14.97 trillion yuan, indicating a robust financial environment [7] - Semiconductor company SMIC reported a net profit of 1.51 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 43.1%, with revenue guidance for Q4 expected to remain stable or grow by 2% [7] - Tencent Holdings reported a net profit of 63.13 billion yuan for Q3, exceeding estimates [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, and non - ferrous metals. It indicates that most markets will maintain a volatile trend in the short term, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions. For example, the stock index futures market will remain volatile due to sector rotation and capital flow; the agricultural product market shows different trends in different varieties, with some facing supply pressure and others having potential price increases; the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets are affected by factors like raw material costs, production capacity, and international policies [19][20][25]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Core View: The market is volatile due to sector rotation. Large - cap indexes are stronger than small - cap indexes, and the technology sector shows signs of stabilizing. The short - term market will remain volatile [19][20]. - Trading Strategy: High - low trading in a high - level range; IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; bullish spread options at low prices [20]. Treasury Bond Futures - Core View: The bond market continues to fluctuate with an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect. The yield downward space is limited, and the 30Y Treasury yield may have a top range of 2.20 - 2.25% [22]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for single - side trading; hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread and try to go long on the T - contract inter - delivery spread [23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Core View: The supply pressure is improving, and the domestic near - month price has support, but the far - month has pressure. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [25][26]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for single - side and arbitrage trading; sell wide - straddle options [26]. Sugar - Core View: International sugar production in major regions may be lower than expected, and the international price has a bottom - grinding trend. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may face downward pressure in the long term [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in the range for the domestic market; wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - Core View: The increase in oil prices is limited, and they will maintain a volatile trend. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia and China shows different trends, and the supply and demand of soybean oil and rapeseed oil also vary [33][34][35]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see or trade in a high - low range; wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Core View: The U.S. corn may fluctuate narrowly, and the domestic corn spot price is strong. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upward space is limited [37][38]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on the 12 - contract corn on dips; wait and see for the 01 contract; wait for dips for the 05 and 07 contracts [38]. Live Hogs - Core View: The supply pressure increases, and the overall inventory is high. The short - term price may still face pressure [39][40]. - Trading Strategy: Short a small amount; wait and see for arbitrage; sell wide - straddle options [40]. Peanuts - Core View: The peanut spot price is strong, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The new - season peanut quality is lower, and the oil mill's procurement is limited [42][43]. - Trading Strategy: The 01 contract fluctuates at the bottom, and the 05 contract can try to go long lightly; wait and see for arbitrage; sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [43]. Eggs - Core View: The demand improves slightly, and the egg price rebounds slightly. The current inventory of laying hens is high, and the short - term price increase space is limited [44][45][47]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see in the short term and consider going long at low prices for far - month contracts; wait and see for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - Core View: The new - season apple production decreases, and the cold - storage inventory is expected to be low. The market may fluctuate greatly when the new inventory data is released [48][49]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core View: The new cotton supply increases, and the demand enters the off - season. Considering the macro - economic situation, the short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [52]. - Trading Strategy: The U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger; wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. Black Metals Steel - Core View: The raw material cost is under pressure, and the steel price fluctuates in a range. The construction steel production decreases more, and the inventory is still decreasing. The hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [57]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a range - bound trend; go long on the coil - rebar spread at low prices; wait and see for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - Core View: The market sentiment cools down, and the price fluctuates and adjusts. The short - term driving force is not obvious, and there may be an opportunity to go long after a pullback in the medium term [59][60]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see in the short term; go long after a pullback in the medium term; hold a reverse spread for coking coal 1/5; wait and see for options [61]. Iron Ore - Core View: Adopt a bearish approach. The supply is at a high level, and the domestic demand is weak, so the ore price is expected to fluctuate bearishly [62][63]. - Trading Strategy: Go short; wait and see for arbitrage and options [63]. Ferroalloys - Core View: The cost provides some support, and the previous short positions can be reduced. The supply and demand of silicon iron and manganese silicon are weakening on the margin [64][65]. - Trading Strategy: Reduce previous short positions at low prices; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Core View: The short - term strong - side volatile pattern continues. The U.S. government is about to restart, and the market is worried about fiscal stimulus and the change of the Fed's dovish camp, increasing the attractiveness of precious metals [66][68][69]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage; hold collar call option strategies [69]. Copper - Core View: The short - term trend is volatile. The macro - economic situation is favorable, but the supply and demand situation is complex. The copper price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [70][71][72]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; the long - term trend is bullish, and a low - long strategy can be adopted; the ratio may rebound; wait and see for options [72]. Alumina - Core View: Pay attention to production cuts. The supply and demand are significantly surplus, and the price may rebound after substantial production cuts [73][74][76]. - Trading Strategy: The price fluctuates weakly at the bottom; wait and see for arbitrage and options [76]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Core View: The price is strong due to the resonance of macro - economic and micro - economic factors. The overseas supply - demand is tight, and the domestic demand has resilience [77][78][79]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a strong trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [79]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core View: The price fluctuates at a high level with the aluminum price. The cost provides support, but the demand is affected by the high price [80]. - Trading Strategy: The price moves strongly with the aluminum price; wait and see for arbitrage and options [80]. Zinc - Core View: Pay attention to the export volume. The supply may be eased, and the price fluctuates in a range. The upward space is limited [82][83]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a range; hold the SHFE long - LME short arbitrage; wait and see for options [84]. Lead - Core View: Pay attention to the change of domestic social inventory. The supply is recovering, and the demand is weakening, so the price is under pressure [86][87]. - Trading Strategy: Try to short lightly at high prices; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [87]. Nickel - Core View: The cost is loosening, and the price fluctuates weakly. The supply is abundant, and the market is pessimistic about the quota adjustment [88][89]. - Trading Strategy: Short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [89]. Stainless Steel - Core View: The supply and demand are both weak, and the raw materials are under pressure. No specific trading strategy is provided in the given text [90].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings. Core Views - The US government shutdown is likely to end, which may boost market sentiment. The US dollar index may face downward pressure, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, showing a trend of "oscillating at the bottom with a slow downward shift" [3][4]. - Stock index futures are expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern, with the support from policies and the impact of the end of the US government shutdown on market sentiment [4]. - Treasury bonds are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and mid - term long positions can be held [5]. - In the commodity market, different varieties have different trends. For example, copper is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation; aluminum is in a high - level oscillation, while alumina is in a weak operation; zinc is in a strong - side oscillation; nickel and stainless steel have limited upward momentum; tin is expected to run strongly; lead is in a strong - side oscillation [6][7][9][10][11][17]. - In the black market, steel products are expected to oscillate within a certain range, iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term, coking coal and coke are in an adjustment phase, and ferroalloys are expected to oscillate [19][20][21][23]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to oscillate within the range of 60 - 65 dollars per barrel in the medium and short term; LPG is affected by the decline of crude oil; PTA - PX is expected to oscillate strongly with the cost side; methanol 01 may continue to decline to find support; PP and PE are in a bottom - side and low - level oscillation respectively; pure benzene and styrene have limited upward momentum; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a low - level game with a weak expectation [25][26][29][32][35][37][38]. - In the agricultural product market, pigs are waiting for the bottom - building; oilseeds are waiting for the USDA report; oils and fats are in a short - term oscillation; soybeans are in a high - level oscillation; corn and starch are in a bottom - side oscillation; cotton is running strongly in the short term; sugar is concerned about the 5500 level; eggs are generally bearish in the long term; apples are running strongly [47][49][50][52][53][54][56][58][59]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Domestic price index rebounds marginally, driven by low - base effect and anti - involution. Boosting domestic demand may be an important policy direction. Overseas, the focus is on liquidity tension, US government shutdown, and US dollar index rebound. The US government shutdown may end, and the labor market is cooling [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within 7.09 - 7.14 this week, showing a trend of "oscillating at the bottom with a slow downward shift", but the possibility of a sharp unilateral depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB in the short term is low [4]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated yesterday, with the trading volume of the two markets shrinking. The long - position entry willingness increased, and the index is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market oscillated yesterday. The central bank will maintain a suitable monetary and financial environment, but the market is expected to oscillate before the central bank releases new signals. Mid - term long positions can be held [5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot market procurement sentiment slightly improved, and the futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation within the range of 86000 - 87000 [6][7]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is affected by funds, and the short - term chasing of high prices needs to be cautious; alumina is recommended to be short - sold at high prices; cast aluminum alloy can be considered for a long - short strategy based on the price difference with aluminum [7][8][9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is in a high - level narrow - range oscillation. The smelting end may reduce production in November, and the inventory may decrease. It is expected to have an upward drive [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The demand is weak in the off - season, the cost support is loosening, and the upward momentum is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is weaker than the demand, and it is expected to run strongly, with a support level around 276,000 yuan [11][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a long - short game, with a short - term view of oscillating strongly, but the risk of a callback needs to be vigilant [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policies [14][15]. - **Lead**: The lead price is pulled up by long - position funds, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand balance of rebar has marginally improved, while the coil plate has high inventory and production. The cost of raw materials provides support, but the inventory suppresses the upward drive [19]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price may have a short - term repair space, but the overall supply is still abundant, and the port inventory is in an accumulating trend [19][20]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are in an adjustment phase. The short - term price may face pressure, but the medium - and long - term price decline space is limited, and they are suitable for long - position allocation [21][22]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are affected by high inventory and weak demand, but are supported by the cost side, and are expected to oscillate [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped sharply overnight and is expected to oscillate within the range of 60 - 65 dollars per barrel in the medium and short term, with further downward space [25][26]. - **LPG**: It is affected by the decline of crude oil, and the domestic supply and demand situation has little change [26][27][28]. - **PTA - PX**: Affected by "anti - involution" rumors and demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly with the cost side, but the excess expectation of PTA still exists [29][30][31]. - **Methanol**: Methanol 01 may continue to decline to find support, and it is recommended to hold the previous short - call options and carry out a 12 - 1 reverse spread [32][33]. - **PP**: It is in a bottom - side oscillation, with the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remaining unchanged, and the upward drive being limited [34][35]. - **PE**: It is in a low - level oscillation, with the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand being difficult to change in the short term [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The upward momentum of pure benzene and styrene is limited, and the market is biased towards a bearish sentiment [38]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: They are in a low - level game with a weak expectation. Soda ash has cost support but limited upward elasticity; glass has a cold - repair expectation; caustic soda has an increasing market pressure [38][39][41]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: They are waiting for the bottom - building. The long - term can be bullish strategically, but the short - term is still based on fundamentals [47][48]. - **Oilseeds**: Attention should be paid to the USDA report. The outer - market soybean price is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward shift, and the inner - market soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different trends [49][50]. - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a short - term oscillation, lacking a clear drive [50]. - **Soybeans**: They are in a high - level oscillation, with the price being in a stalemate and the purchase by the state reserve limiting the downward space [51][52]. - **Corn and Starch**: The price is driven by the reduction of supply, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [52][53]. - **Cotton**: It is running strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [53][54]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the 5500 level, affected by factors such as production and export [56][57]. - **Eggs**: They are generally bearish in the long term, with the production capacity facing a turning point [58]. - **Apples**: They are running strongly, with the inventory lower than last year and the market trading actively [58][59][60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid rising market risk - aversion, focus on the US October CPI data. In the commodity market, during the current inflation - expectation game phase, pay attention to non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. Consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In the domestic market, positive news has emerged, but the economic foundation needs further consolidation. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released on October 28, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five - Year Plan period is expected to be around 5%. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and China officially postponed tariffs on November 5. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a 0.8 decline from the previous month. China's October exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, compared with an 8.3% increase in the previous value. China's October CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached the highest level since March 2024. The PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. On November 12, the A - share market adjusted with a slight decline in the three major indices, the bond market rose across the board, most commodities fell, and precious metals rose [2]. - In the US, the liquidity risk has temporarily eased. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1. On November 10, the US Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act". The US October ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, shrinking for eight consecutive months. The ADP private - sector employment in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. There are uncertainties regarding the Fed chair candidate and future tariff policies [3]. Commodity Analysis - In the black sector, it is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and focus on the "anti - involution" situation. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation recently. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered to be relatively loose as OPEC + announced an additional production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other varieties is worth attention. In the agricultural products sector, with the China - US peace talks, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast. For precious metals, after the short - term sharp adjustment risk is cleared, consider buying on dips [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [5]. A - Share Market - The A - share market recovered after hitting the bottom, with the three major indices slightly declining. More stocks fell than rose, and over 3500 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets closed down. The trading volume was 1.96 trillion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.39% [6]. US Tariff and Economic News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there will be major tariff news in the next few days, and tariff dividends are under discussion. Trump mentioned a $2000 tax refund for families with an annual income of less than $100,000. Bessent also said that the economic situation was good before the government shutdown, and he expects real income to rebound in the first and second quarters of next year [3][6].

Core Insights - The year 2025 has been marked by significant market movements, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, validating earlier bullish predictions [1] - Key themes for 2025 include the impact of Trump's new policies, domestic policy responses, and the challenges of asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - The A-share market has seen a surge in investor participation, with nearly 250 million investors, indicating a robust market environment [2] Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have performed well, driven by sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, with the ChiNext Index outperforming gold [3] - Among 31 primary industries, 30 have reported positive returns, with a stark contrast between the leading materials sector and the declining food and beverage sector, showing an 80% difference [4] - Various fund types have achieved positive returns, with equity and mixed funds averaging 29.97% and 26.17% returns respectively [7] Fund Performance - Commodity funds have seen unprecedented gains, with returns nearing 40%, while QDII funds have also performed well with a 26.46% increase [8] - FOF funds have benefited from diversified asset allocation, achieving an average return of 15.84%, marking one of the best years historically [8] - Bond funds have lagged, with an average return of only 2.13%, although convertible bond funds have performed better, exceeding 20% returns [8] Investment Trends - The concept of "slow bull" has gained traction, with expectations for a sustainable market rally over the next two to three years, supported by technological innovation and policy backing [16] - Investors are increasingly favoring low-volatility products, with a focus on absolute returns and diversified strategies [14] - The market is characterized by alternating sentiments of fear and greed, with a need for disciplined investment approaches amidst volatility [12][19]