报告日期：2025 年 7 月 7 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：美国设定新单边关税税率 据央视新闻，当地时间 7 月 4 日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国政府将从当天起 开始致函贸易伙伴，设定新的单边关税税率。特朗普称，新关税"十有八九" 从 8 月 1 日开始生效。对于将设定的新关税，特朗普说，"关税税率可能从 60%、70%到 10%、20%不等"。国务院副总理刘国中在广东调研时强调，要加快 推进农业和医疗领域科技创新，因地制宜发展农业新质生产力，提升药品医疗 器械自主创新能力，有力促进产业提质升级和经济高质量发展。要加快构建药 品医疗器械领域全国统一大市场，支持企业参与国际竞争，拓展医药产业发展 空间。欧佩克+同意将 8 月份的石油产量提高 54.8 万桶/日，高于 5 月、6 月和 7 月 41.1 万桶/日，此前市场普遍预期 8 月增幅将继续维持这一幅度。欧佩克+ 代表表示，OPEC+将考虑在下次会议上再增产 54.8 万桶/日。 重点品种：集运、原油、螺纹钢 集运欧线：上周五 EC 午后走弱，08 合约收于 1849.9 点，下跌 1.71%。盘后公布 的 SCFI 欧线为 2101 美元/TE ...

Core Insights - The overall price index of Linyi Mall decreased slightly this week, indicating a minor decline in market prices across various categories [1] Price Index Summary - **Grain and Food Category**: The price index for grain and food increased to 95.11 points, up by 0.04 points, driven by rising prices in oil and food products, while other subcategories remained stable or saw minor declines [1] - **Board Category**: The price index for boards fell to 97.20 points, down by 0.27 points, due to weak demand and a slight decrease in raw material prices, leading to lower average sales prices [2] - **Home Appliances and Audio-Visual Equipment**: The index for this category decreased to 103.11 points, down by 0.15 points, primarily due to price drops in cooling and kitchen appliances, despite some seasonal sales boosts [3] - **Steel Category**: The steel price index dropped to 98.35 points, down by 0.11 points, as construction activity slowed due to adverse weather, leading to reduced demand and lower prices [4] - **Clothing and Accessories**: The index for clothing and accessories fell to 104.83 points, down by 0.07 points, influenced by price reductions in footwear and overall weak consumer demand [5] - **Furniture Category**: The furniture price index decreased to 89.03 points, down by 0.06 points, reflecting weakened market demand due to the sluggish real estate sector [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel products in the black building materials sector is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the lack of significant improvement at the industrial level, the short - term market may continue to be bullish under the anti - involution macro - expectations, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Friday, the main contract of rebar closed at 3072, up 0.23%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3201, up 0.25%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12730, up 0.539%. The night - session closed lower [1] Important News - The "Qiushi" magazine emphasizes creating a fair - competition market environment. Trump announced that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, likely to take effect on August 1st, with rates ranging from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70%. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development plans to promote the stabilization of the real - estate market [1] Market Logic - On Friday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil generally rose with average trading volume. After reaching new highs, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined. Recently, blast - furnace overhauls have increased, and there are emission - reduction and production - restriction measures in Tangshan from July 4 - 15, having little impact on overall production. Steel inventories decreased slightly last week, and demand shows off - season characteristics [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term bullish trading strategy is recommended [1] Support and Resistance Levels - The resistance level of the main rebar contract has moved up to 3130, with an important support level at 3000. The support level of hot - rolled coil is 3026, and the resistance level is 3282. The support level of stainless steel is 12300, and the resistance level is 13000 [1]

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The expiration of the tariff suspension period has cooled global risk appetite. The US tax - cut bill has been passed, and countries face pressure to reach trade agreements with the US, leading to a slight decline in the US dollar index. In China, the PMI data in June continued to rise, and domestic consumption policies and the "anti - involution" emphasis have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets and the appreciation of the RMB have also improved market sentiment [2]. - The overall view on asset classes is that the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with cautious long positions recommended; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with cautious observation recommended; in the commodity sector, black metals are expected to rebound from low - level fluctuations, with cautious long positions; non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate strongly, with cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are expected to fluctuate, with cautious observation; precious metals are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with cautious long positions [2]. Group 2: Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as cross - border payment, gaming, and banking, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The recovery of China's June PMI data, strengthened domestic consumption policies, and the "anti - involution" emphasis have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets and RMB appreciation have also improved market sentiment. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward momentum has increased. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals - The precious metals market oscillated last week. With the Middle - East cease - fire agreement, the focus shifted to the Russia - Ukraine war, and overall risk cooled in the short term. The approaching tariff deadline and the US - Vietnam agreement have increased optimistic tariff expectations. However, trade negotiations between the US and other countries are still ongoing. The better - than - expected non - farm data has cooled the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the rebound of US bond yields has suppressed gold prices. The "Big Beautiful Act" will increase debt pressure, providing long - term support for gold. The tariff negotiation situation will be the main short - term influencing factor, and the volatility of gold is expected to rise in the short term [5]. Group 4: Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly last Friday, but trading volume remained low. Overseas, tariff policies need attention; domestically, the "anti - involution" policy is a factor. The news of Tangshan's production restrictions led to a rebound in the futures market, increasing speculative demand, but the off - season still affected terminal demand. On the supply side, the impact of production - restriction policies emerged, with a 1.44 - million - ton week - on - week decline in hot - metal production, while the output of finished products still increased slightly. Cost support remained strong. The steel market is expected to be strong in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - The spot price of iron ore was flat last Friday, and the futures price rebounded slightly. Hot - metal production decreased by 1.44 million tons last week after two consecutive weeks of rebound, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. The implementation of production - restriction policies needs further attention. In terms of supply, the shipping volume decreased by 149 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 178 million tons. Although the second and third quarters are the peak shipping seasons, the shipping volume may decline after the end - of - quarter rush. The port inventory increased by 46.67 million tons. Iron ore is expected to be strong in the short term due to macro factors but may decline in the medium term [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat last Friday. The output of five major steel products increased, and the demand for ferroalloys was fair. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market was 5480 - 5530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded slightly, driving up the spot price of manganese ore. The start - up rate of silicon manganese enterprises increased by 1.13% to 40.34%, and the daily output increased by 125 tons. The inventory of silicon iron enterprises is being depleted slowly, and prices are expected to adjust narrowly in the short term. The silicon iron and silicon manganese markets are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7][8]. Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Tariff news is uncertain. Although Trump threatened higher tariffs, it may be a negotiation strategy. The US is likely to impose at least a 10% tariff in the long run. The non - farm data was better than expected, but the private - sector employment slowed, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts cooled. In 2025, China's refined copper output continued to increase. From January to May, the copper output reached 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. After excluding sample expansion, the increase was still 6.7%. Despite high production, the copper inventory is in good condition, at a relatively low level [9]. Aluminum - The aluminum price fell slightly last Friday, affected by the overall decline in commodities. The weighted open interest of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 7654 lots. The LME inventory continued to increase. Domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods started to accumulate inventory, indicating the end of the de - stocking phase. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase, following the seasonal trend. The warehouse receipts increased significantly [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The industry has entered the off - season, with weak growth in manufacturing orders. However, the tight supply of scrap aluminum has supported the price of cast aluminum alloy from the cost side. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand [9]. Tin - On the supply side, the combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 7.13% for two consecutive weeks, although still at a relatively low level. The supply from Myanmar's Wa State is becoming more relaxed. On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry, an important downstream of tin solder, is in the off - season, with a decrease in orders. The demand for lead - acid batteries is weak, and the demand for tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals is stable. As the tin price rises, the downstream is hesitant to buy, and the inventory increased by 658 tons this week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside will be restricted in the medium term due to high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and declining demand [10][11]. Lithium Carbonate - On the supply side, there is a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. The "anti - involution" policy has boosted the macro - sentiment, and the price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated strongly. The price of lithium ore has rebounded significantly, but the production of lithium carbonate remains high due to reduced smelting losses. On the demand side, the output of power cells decreased in June, but the output of energy - storage cells increased significantly. In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and batteries increased. The current price is close to the cost of mica - integrated production, providing strong cost support [11]. Industrial Silicon - There are short - term positive impacts, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. The start - up rate in the southwest increased last week, but the number of open furnaces in the north decreased, leading to a decline in weekly output. The "anti - involution" theme has boosted expectations [11]. Polysilicon - It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, driven by the production cut of industrial silicon and the "anti - involution" theme. Due to high industry concentration, the price has greater elasticity. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and the prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continue to decline [12]. Group 6: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ has unexpectedly increased daily production by 548,000 barrels, and with continued production growth in South America in the second half of the year, the downward trend of oil prices is more certain. Although the short - term spot price has not been clearly affected by over - supply, it may be supported in the short term, but refinery profits may be affected after the peak - season profit period, and purchasing willingness may decline [13]. Asphalt - The oil price is running at a low level, and the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the factory inventory is being depleted slowly. The basis has rebounded, and the social inventory has limited accumulation. As the demand approaches the peak season, the inventory depletion situation needs to be monitored. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following the oil price in the short term [14]. PX - After the premium of crude oil was reversed, the strong trend of PX changed, and the overseas price weakened to $840. The PXN spread reached $250, and the industry profit declined significantly. The recovery of PTA's start - up rate will provide some support for PX, and the weakening trend of PX may be slower than that of its downstream [14]. PTA - The tightness of the spot market has been significantly relieved, the port inventory has increased, and the basis has declined. The downstream start - up rate has continued to decline to 90.2%. There is still room for the downstream start - up rate to decline, and with the downward trend of crude oil prices due to production increases, the PTA price still has some downward space [14]. Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory has been depleted to 540,000 tons. The overall start - up rate has declined, reducing supply pressure. However, the continuous decline of the downstream start - up rate will restrict further inventory depletion. The factory inventory is still being depleted steadily. It is expected to bottom out and follow the polyester sector to operate weakly in the short term [14]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a callback in the short - fiber price. It generally follows the polyester sector to fluctuate strongly. Terminal orders are still average, and the start - up rate continues to decline. The inventory of short - fiber remains high, and inventory depletion needs to wait until the peak - season demand in late July. With the weakening cost support, it will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern following the polyester sector in the medium term [15]. Methanol - There are maintenance activities in the inland area, and the arrival volume has decreased. Downstream olefins have maintenance plans. Before the implementation of maintenance, the spot price has some support. The international start - up rate has increased significantly, and the import expectation has risen again, and the supply - demand situation is expected to worsen. It has rebounded slightly under policy disturbances, but the upside is limited, and short - selling opportunities should be monitored [15]. PP - There are both maintenance and new - capacity releases, slightly relieving the supply pressure. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand continues to decline. The crude oil price fluctuates weakly, and the profit of oil - based production is fair. The supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the price is expected to decline further after the new - capacity release [16][17]. LLDPE - The number of device maintenance has increased, but the overall output is higher than the same period last year. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand continues to weaken. The balance sheet shows an expected inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure. There is still room for cost - profit compression [18]. Group 7: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The pricing of the US soybean planting area is settled, and the weather during the key growing period from July to August is crucial. The current hot and humid environment in the US soybean - growing areas is conducive to crop growth, and the probability of extreme drought is low. The market's expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the yield per unit in the July USDA supply - demand report. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US has supported the US soybean market. The export expectation has improved with positive trade news between China and the US, and the balance - sheet pressure has been further reduced. The CBOT soybean is expected to remain in a stable range [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The high - start - up rate of oil mills has maintained a stable supply of soybean meal, and the market sentiment is weak. The average monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from July to September in China may be around 1.1 million tons, and the supply pressure is difficult to relieve within the 09 - contract period. The short - term stable trend of US soybeans provides some support. The positive news of China - US soybean trade has limited impact on the upward movement of futures prices. In the fourth quarter, the import premium of soybeans and the basis of domestic soybean meal are expected to remain weak. The upward space of soybean meal within the 09 - contract period is limited [20]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US has extended the clean - fuel production tax credit to 2029, which is beneficial to US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil. In China, the rapeseed oil port inventory is high, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The soybean oil inventory is accelerating its recovery, and the risk of inventory accumulation is increasing. The domestic soybean and rapeseed oil markets lack independent market - moving factors in the short term and are affected by palm oil. The soybean - palm oil price remains inverted [20][21]. Palm Oil - OPEC+'s planned production increase in August may put pressure on the oil peak season, limiting the boost to international oils. In Malaysia, the production in June decreased by about 4% month - on - month, and the export may increase by 4% - 6% month - on - month. The inventory may shrink to less than 2 million tons. The positive export data in July has boosted market sentiment, but the long - term production increase and the pressure on oil prices are the main limiting factors. In China, the palm oil storage has increased, and the basis is weak. The import profit is in an inverted state, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound and strong trend [21]. Corn - The grassroots price of corn is firm, and the basis is strong. The auction of imported corn had a slightly high premium and good transactions, with limited impact on the production area. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and there are more shutdowns for maintenance during the off - season. Feed enterprises are using more wheat as a substitute for corn, putting pressure on the corn price in Shandong. In July, the import of corn and the substitution of wheat may affect the futures price negatively. After the seasonal substitution of wheat for feed consumption in August - September, the postponed demand will return, and the corn price is likely to rise [22]. Pork - Leading enterprises have a low willingness to increase production and reduce weight for export. The supply in July is expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea during the Spring Festival. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the profit expectation for the peak season in August - September is low. The cost of secondary fattening has increased significantly, and the willingness to restock is low. A large - scale concentrated supply of second - fattened pigs is expected in late July and late August, which will limit the upward space of pig prices. The spot price has decreased, and the futures price is expected to decline slightly in the next period [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The U.S. Congress House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will raise the federal government's statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the government budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [1]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.71% and COMEX silver futures up 0.85%. The Fed's policy shift expectation and trade tensions support the gold price, but strong non - farm payroll data weakens the safe - haven demand [1]. - For major varieties, methanol is short - term bullish, glass is in a inventory - digestion cycle, and gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Main News Focus International News - The U.S. Department of Commerce revoked the requirement for three major global chip design software suppliers to apply for government licenses for their business in China. Siemens fully restored Chinese customers' access to its software and technology, while Synopsys and Cadence are gradually restarting related services [5]. Domestic News - China and the EU held the 13th round of high - level strategic dialogue. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China and the EU should strengthen exchanges and cooperation. He also responded to the issue of China's rare - earth export control, stating that it should not be a problem between China and the EU [6]. Industry News - The State Council issued a document to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, including 34 measures for other free trade zones and 43 measures for the whole country [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.83%, the European STOXX 50 rose 0.28%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.98%, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.35%. ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.43%, London gold spot fell 0.92%, and London silver rose 0.77%. Other commodities also had different price changes [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes rose. The previous trading day, the stock index rebounded. The electronic sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the decline. The market turnover was 1.33 trillion yuan. It is recommended to be bullish on stock index futures and buy options on stock index options. A - shares have high investment value in the long - term [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The central bank's open - market operations at the beginning of the month were mainly net withdrawals, and the market liquidity was relatively loose. The U.S. economic data and policy changes affected the U.S. bond yield. The domestic economic situation supported the Treasury bond futures price [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell slightly at night. The uncertainty of tariffs and the end of the 90 - day tariff suspension on July 9th raised concerns about economic impact and fuel demand. The U.S. labor market was healthy, and the number of U.S. online drilling oil wells decreased [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.88%. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin (methanol) plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. It is short - term bullish [2][14]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures fluctuated. The new rubber supply in producing areas was affected by weather, and the raw rubber price was supported. The inventory in Qingdao area fluctuated, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins traded in a narrow range. The consumption of polyolefins entered the off - season, and the cost support weakened. It is necessary to focus on the supply contraction effect during the summer device maintenance [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures did not continue the rebound, and the inventory decreased slightly. Soda ash futures fell, and the inventory increased. Both are in the inventory - digestion cycle, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metal prices fell. The better - than - expected U.S. non - farm employment data reduced the Fed's early - rate - cut expectation. Gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices. Attention should be paid to policy uncertainties [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. The low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices tested smelting output. The domestic downstream demand was stable overall, and copper prices may fluctuate in a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed higher at night. The concentrate processing fees continued to rise. The domestic demand showed mixed performance, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely [20]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.17% at night. The Fed's easing expectation boosted the non - ferrous sector. The alumina market was in a complex situation, and the aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly. Shanghai aluminum may oscillate at a high level [21]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.86% at night. The nickel ore supply in Indonesia was tight, and the price of Philippine nickel ore rose. The nickel market had both bullish and bearish factors, and nickel prices may oscillate [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium ore price showed signs of stopping falling. The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased, and the inventory also increased. The lithium market is still in a weak situation [23][24]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported by the strong production momentum of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment decreased recently, and the port inventory decreased rapidly. Iron ore prices may be supported in the short - term and weaken in the later period [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decrease. The steel export was affected by tariffs and anti - dumping, and the demand for both building materials and plates may weaken in the later period. The steel market may be in a weak and oscillating state [26]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Soybean and rapeseed meal futures rose at night. The U.S. soybean growth data was mixed, and the domestic oil - mill operation rate increased, which may lead to an increase in soybean meal inventory [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil futures were strongly oscillating at night, while soybean and rapeseed oil futures fell slightly. The Malaysian palm oil inventory, production, and export data showed different trends, and the oils and fats may continue to oscillate [28]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated, and the 08 contract rose 0.11%. The market's pessimistic expectation about the peak season of European routes was repaired, and the freight rate may be stable in the later period. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - increase notices and macro - tariff factors [29].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black building materials (steel) sector is short - term oscillatory and bullish [1] 2. Report's Core View - The black building materials (steel) market showed significant price increases on Wednesday and night trading. Although the macro and news aspects are favorable, the fundamental situation has not improved significantly, so the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar and hot - rolled coils rose significantly, and the night trading closed higher [1] 3.2 Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued [1] - As of June 30, 27 cities introduced 34 real - estate market relaxation policies, with many areas optimizing housing provident fund policies, and some cities extending relevant relaxation policy periods [1] - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing recently investigated the transformation and upgrading and innovation development of the manufacturing industry in Hubei, emphasizing the focus on the real economy and promoting high - end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Wednesday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally increased with good trading volume. Futures prices also rose significantly. In the industrial aspect, due to the decline in raw material prices such as coke, scrap steel, and iron ore, the profit of building materials improved, with a profit of about 100 yuan per ton of steel. Some blast furnaces resumed production but not at full capacity. Electric furnaces continued to suffer deep losses, with a loss of 100 - 150 yuan per ton during off - peak hours, and production continued to decline. The total actual steel supply only increased slightly. The emission reduction and production restriction in Tangshan from July 4 - 15 are beneficial to the market but have little impact on overall production. On the demand side, due to hot and rainy weather, demand continued to show off - season characteristics. The recent central meeting may briefly support the market. The upper resistance level of the rebar main contract moved up to 3100 after breaking through 3050, with an important support level at 2912. The support level of hot - rolled coils is 3026, with a resistance level of 3282 after breaking through 3200. The support level of stainless steel is 12300, and the resistance level is 13000 [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - With the positive macro and news factors already reflected in the market, and without obvious improvement in the fundamentals, the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the potential resurgence of inflation in the U.S. due to trade policies and economic uncertainties, urging central banks to focus on their core missions to maintain market trust and enhance policy effectiveness [1] - The A-share market has shown a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index increasing by 3.73% and 5.69% respectively [1] - Analysts suggest that upcoming mid-year reports from listed companies will create structural investment opportunities, with a focus on sectors with strong performance and high safety margins, such as consumer goods and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - The shipping index for the European route has shown fluctuations, with the SCFI European line increasing by $195/TEU to $2030/TEU, reflecting the pricing situation for July [2] - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with significant trading volume, indicating a potential upward breakout in the A-share market, particularly for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices supported by technology policies [3][9] - The glass and soda ash markets are currently in a phase of inventory digestion, with soda ash production inventory decreasing by 152,000 tons, while glass production inventory increased by 70,000 boxes [4][15] Group 3 - International news includes President Trump's comments on not needing to extend the deadline for countries to reach agreements to avoid higher tariffs, criticizing the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [5] - Domestic news reports that China has conditionally resumed imports of seafood from certain regions in Japan following monitoring of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater situation [6] - Industry news from the 2025 Listed Companies Forum indicates ongoing reforms in major exchanges, with a notable trend of A+H listings expected to increase [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The overall price index of Linyi Mall has slightly decreased this week, indicating mixed trends across various product categories with some experiencing price increases while others face declines [1]. Price Index Summary - The total price index for Linyi Mall this week is 102.89 points, down 0.02 points or 0.02% from the previous week [1]. - Among 14 categories, 5 saw price increases, 1 remained stable, and 8 experienced declines [1]. Furniture Category - The furniture category index rose to 89.09 points, increasing by 0.21 points, driven by growing demand, particularly for mattresses [2]. - The price of beds and related products saw significant increases, while prices for chairs and sofas remained stable [2]. Home Appliances and Audio-Visual Equipment - The index for home appliances and audio-visual equipment increased to 103.26 points, up 0.04 points [3]. - Kitchen and cooling appliances led the price increases, with stable sales for air conditioners and other seasonal products [3]. Building and Decoration Materials - The building and decoration materials index rose to 105.75 points, up 0.03 points [4]. - Despite a seasonal downturn in construction, prices for certain materials like paint and valves saw slight increases [4]. Steel Category - The steel category index fell to 98.46 points, down 0.11 points [5]. - A decline in demand and reduced market activity contributed to the downward trend in prices for pipes and sheets [5]. Agricultural Inputs - The agricultural inputs index decreased to 87.06 points, down 0.05 points [6]. - Seasonal demand drops led to price reductions for items like agricultural films and breeding tools, while some pesticides saw price increases due to rising demand [6]. Daily Necessities - The daily necessities index fell to 102.79 points, down 0.03 points [7]. - Prices for various consumer goods, including crafts and bags, decreased, influenced by high temperatures and promotional activities from e-commerce platforms [7].